Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 4/9/18

2:01	Dan Szymborski:

2:02	Dan Szymborski: Carson didn’t start the queue up early, so quickly ask like 50 stupid questions so that we can get some padding.

2:03	Dan Szymborski: All by myself

2:04	Dan Szymborski: Don’t wanna be

2:04	Dan Szymborski: All by myself

2:04	Dan Szymborski: That’s all the lyrics I know

2:04	CamdenWarehouse: I thought that Monday’s would mean more Dan chats…

2:04	Dan Szymborski: My preseason work crush is over!

2:04	Dan Szymborski: As in work, not that I had a crush on work or a crush on someone I was stalking

2:04	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: The Szympanzee is back!

2:04	Dan Szymborski: This chat is bananas. B-a-n-a-n-a-s.

2:06	Rox Fan: Is Trevor Story ever going to figure out the strike zone?

2:06	Dan Szymborski: Weirdly, his plate discipline numbers aren’t as bad as his strikeouts would suggest.

2:06	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Better alternate Jotcast handle: Don Szymmer’s Faceplant or Bartolo’s Colon?

2:06	Gub Gub: Is it snowing there? If so, are you still wearing shorts?

2:07	Dan Szymborski: Had some flurries earlier and I am wearing shorts. Becuase I’m inside.

2:07	Jeremy: Will Buxton walk this year?

2:07	Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:07	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: I’m hoping that one day Fangraphs will include a schedule of upcoming chats and not just the list of the most recent

2:07	Dan Szymborski: My schedule is ETHEREAL

2:07	Dan Szymborski: I gotta stay one step ahead of the clown prince of darkness, Carson.

2:07	Gub Gub: Do you think baseball players ever eat stadium food?

2:07	Dan Szymborski: They do.

2:08	Dan Szymborski: Chris Sale was trying to set the cheesesteak record a few years ago. Don’t know if he suceeded

2:08	Jarrett: Ozzie Albies has more home runs than Aaron Judge. This has to continue, right?

2:08	Dan Szymborski: Are you suggesting we haven’t long passed Cinco de Samplo?

2:08	Dan Szymborski: BOW DOWN TO 11 WAR MATT CHAPMAN

2:08	Lunch Angle: Giolito looked so studly in spring training with his lowered arm slot; I was hoping for a Paxton-esque breakout. But he’s been just as terrible as last year in his first two starts. Was I just bamboozled by taking spring training stats seriously?

2:09	Dan Szymborski: Spring training stats can shade the projections. Shouldn’t be letting them obliterate them.

2:09	Dan Szymborski: Also, April

2:09	Didi Gregorious: Am I the best hitter in my lineup? Or Aaron?

2:09	Dan Szymborski: April

2:09	TKDC: How about Markakis and the Braves offense?

2:09	Dan Szymborski: April

2:09	CamdenWarehouse: ugh – I apostrophed Monday

2:09	Dan Szymborski: M’Onday sounds like a Klingon though if you go that route

2:09	Jarrett: Is Acuna up this week?

2:09	Dan Szymborski: Give it another week I think

2:10	chet: is Marco Gonzales currently better than Felix?

2:10	Dan Szymborski: I won’t say yes at this point, but we’re getting disturbingly close to the point at which yes doesn’t seem that far off.

2:10	why: is the rays third order winning percentage so damn low

2:11	Kris Bryant’s radiant blue eyes: Is Mike Trout good? I hope that is a good enough stupid question to get your blood flowing.

2:11	Dan Szymborski: What kind of superstar has to steal a fish name? The fish is the real star.

2:11	CamdenWarehouse: do the Orioles fire Duquette in June then immediately promote Brady?

2:11	Dan Szymborski: No

2:11	Dan Szymborski: As for Rays, mostly because they’ve stunk.

2:11	SiscoKid: Any ETAs on Senzel and Dahl? Worth a stash?

2:12	Dan Szymborski: I think Senzel will be hard to keep down. Dahl’s worth a stash too but you have to keep in mind the Rockies are terrible.

2:12	Jarrett: Who is more valuable to the Angels: Trout or Ohtani?

2:12	Dan Szymborski: Still Trout

2:12	Vinbaka: When do you think Robles will be up? Taylor is off to a slow start.

2:12	Dan Szymborski: Not too much longer. The day was always going to come that he’d force his way, I think

2:12	Gub Gub: Have The Rays ended all talks of Bullpen Day being a sustainable thing?

2:13	Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that. The problem with the Rays is just that they’ve played later.

2:13	andy: i want to thank you for the time you compared watching mike matheny’s bullpen management to watching a kindergarten class after somebody drops 500 spiders into it. this metaphor helps me cope. i don’t have a question.

2:13	Dan Szymborski: I’m proud of that tweet as it comes up in Cardinals blogs occasionally still, years later.

2:13	Dan Szymborski: Dan Szymborski @DSzymborski If I had to demonstrate to someone what Mike Matheny’s bullpen usage is like, I’d drop 500 spiders into a kindergarten class. 29 May 2016

2:14	Bob Villar: What was your impression of Wrestlemania? Overall, i thought it was entertaining and was shocked at how good Rousey was.

2:14	Dan Szymborski: The highs were high, the lows were blecch.

2:14	Dan Szymborski: To steal Scott keith’s quote, the Rousey match was better than it had any right to be.

2:14	Dan Szymborski: But the tag title matches were absolute garbage.

2:15	Dan Szymborski: And WWE’s essentially buried the entire tag division with the Braun stuff.

2:15	Dan Szymborski: Roman/Lesnar was a who cares.

2:15	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: What is the likelihood that Ohtani pulls a Trevor Story and ends up with a pretty “meh” line buoyed by a hot couple of weeks?

2:15	Dan Szymborski: MEANIE

2:15	Tampa Red: Man, if only someone would invent a way to keep inclement weather out!

2:15	Dan Szymborski: I’ve got this cool stack of bricks that makes a swanky square!

2:16	Slapshot: Favorite and least favorite match at Wrestlemania last night?

2:16	Dan Szymborski: Favorite: IC three-way. Least: Braun tag match

2:16	Lunch Angle: Freddie Freeman for MVP

2:18	RotoLando: Who would you nominate for the Klobb of the Week?

2:18	Dan Szymborski: Let’s see. I don’t think Corey Seager has an xbh yet, so he’s the Klobb of the week.

2:18	Dan Szymborski: Given the strikeouts, we’ll call Giancarlo Slappers Only

2:18	Kris Bryant’s radiant blue eyes: How do you think the Rockies OF situation plays out this year? tapia or Dahl snag a full time job?

2:18	Dan Szymborski: LOLROCKIES

2:18	Guest: Bullpen guys are the worst junk foodies.

2:19	Dan Szymborski: All player food stories have to be replied to with the story of Gates Brown

2:19	Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t in the lineup so he bought a couple of hot dogs.

2:20	Dan Szymborski: But he was put in as a pinch-hitter while he had the hot dogs, so he put them in his pocket

2:20	Dan Szymborski: And ended up sliding face first and getting covered in smashed hot dogs and mustard

2:20	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: RE: players eating common folk food, do they ever bring in meals from outside a la chicken for Cerrano?

2:20	Dan Szymborski: I’ve actually never inquired.

2:20	Gub Gub: OK, do you think baseball players ever load up a hot dog with as much free condiments as possible because at those prices I

2:20	Gub Gub: ‘m getting some value, goddamnit!

2:20	Tim not Anderson: Will Tim Anderson break out this year? his walk rate is up from negative a million and he already had 5 sb’s. any thoughts?

2:20	Dan Szymborski: Cautious optimistic.

2:21	Lunch Angle: Do ballplayers wear sunscreen in the field?

2:21	Dan Szymborski: Varies

2:21	Dan Szymborski: The rumor is always that almost every pitcher does…for nefarious reasons

2:22	Towel: BR has Matt Chapman tightly as the most valuable charach

2:22	Mr. Freeze: Ryan Flaherty, Preston Tucker, and Nick Markakis all appear to be shoe-ins for the all star team. Think any of them end up regressing?

2:22	Dan Szymborski: Never

2:22	Scherzer’s Blue Eye: But the Mets…oh right…April

2:22	someone: are the braves … good?

2:22	Dan Szymborski: I keep telling you guys that they’re very likely a near .500 team right now in talent and have huge upside all over the place

2:22	CJ03: I’m overreacting about insert player here can you give me some month-related context for why I shouldn’t panic?

2:22	Dan Szymborski: April

2:22	Rox Fan: Only ten games in, but my concerns about the offense for the Rockies are feeling very justified.

2:22	Dan Szymborski: I’m getting in fights with Rockies fan on Twitter

2:22	Gub Gub: Do they make a Jitterbug version of a keyboard? I’m sick of hitting the enter key with these sausage hands

2:22	Dan Szymborski: It’s called hot dog fingers and it’s a serious illness!

2:22	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: When is the last time someone came into spring training, dominated at a new level, and actually carried that throughout the whole season? Andruw Jones in 2005 comes to mind but I can’t think of any more recent examples of that magnitude.

2:22	Dan Szymborski: Cliff Lee?

2:23	Dan Szymborski: This is a hard Q for me, because I immediately forget spring training stats

2:23	Towel: BR has Matt Chapman rightly as the most valuable player in baseball. But FG seems stuck in the dark ages with him at second? Get it together guys! PS: Ohtani is good

2:23	RotoLando: Where the Hell is Willie Calhoun?

2:23	Dan Szymborski: Since he does actually need defensive experience, his Service Time Excuse Demotion is more plausible

2:25	Mark: Tell me something I should like about the Blue Jays

2:26	Dan Szymborski: There’s a Thai place not far from the stadium where I had one of my top 3 favorite pad thai meals.

2:26	Dan Szymborski: But I can’t remember the name

2:26	Szymboooo Slice: Dan! You’re back!

2:26	Bebop: Matt Kemp has a 0.1 defensive WAR rating so far, nine games in!

2:26	Eric: Is Newcomb’s ability to throw strikes for real, and if it, is he a good breakout candidate?

2:26	Dan Szymborski: I’m more optimistic about these types of improvements

2:26	TKDC: The exception to “April” is banked wins and losses. The Mets are not better than the Nats, but you have to admit that is now a very competitive race now, right?

2:26	Dan Szymborski: Right now yes

2:27	Dan Szymborski: April more for players

2:27	Dan Szymborski: There’s only so much you can bank as a player

2:27	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Who ends up with the more valuable career: Newcomb or Gohara?

2:27	Dan Szymborski: I’ll still say Gohara

2:27	TKDC: Did you know that “Ohtani” loosely translates to “best fish.” Does that change your Trout/Ohtani answer?

2:27	Dan Szymborski: Best fish > trout

2:27	Dan Szymborski: Unless you believe trout is the best fish, in which case =

2:27	CamdenWarehouse: We’re almost two weeks into the season. It’s about time for the All Star ballots to come out, right?

2:28	Dan Szymborski: Yup! This is the best time of the year to evaluate 2018 performance

2:28	John: How annoying is it that Arte Moreno is getting bailed out of their past terrible decisions by having two incredibly valuable assets basically fall into their laps?

2:28	Dan Szymborski: I’m more annoyed the O’s dont’ care

2:28	Szymboooo Slice: What’s crazier, the fact that the Orioles whooped up on the Yanks with extra inning wins on back to back days, or the fact that Mike Wright hasn’t been DFA’d?

2:28	Dan Szymborski: Sadly, O’s pitching options are bleak

2:28	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: Dan, you’re an expert on supporting terrible franchises. Is there any reason I shouldn’t stop watching the Rays in favor of that day’s most interesting games. Ohtani! Kershaw! The old guys on the Giants!

2:28	Dan Szymborski: Don’t ask me, I always watch the most interesting games.

2:28	Its Me: So do you have a crush on someone you aren’t currently stalking? (for whatever reason)

2:29	Dan Szymborski: Monica Bellucci?

2:29	Vinbaka: What would Ohtani’s triple slash look like if he faced Ohtani the pitcher all year long?

2:29	Dan Szymborski: DIVIDE BY ZERO ERROR

2:29	Scherzer’s Blue Eye: I still want to punch Marty Foster

2:29	why: Also, wouldn’t it be fairer to say the Rays have 7/8 SP? Their bullpen days aren’t seven guys going an inning and change, which is what the national media seems to think they are.

2:29	RK: Is Ohtani’s WAR understated because of the roster flexibility he allows? is replacement level calculatable for a player like him?

2:29	Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard to evaluate that because it doesn’t happen often

2:29	Dan Szymborski: Best I can do is Judge Potter Pornography

2:29	why: In fact, the pitching has been much better on bullpen days so far.

2:30	Guest: Thoughts on Swanson for Braves? Overall potential or just hot bat?

2:30	Dan Szymborski: I thikn he has terrific upside!

2:30	THE Average Sports Fan: What is your take on Kapler?

2:30	Dan Szymborski: Rough start. But it doesn’t matter, what matters is if he learns.

2:30	SayItAintShohei: Could Mejia be up playing OF before May with Chisenhall’s de-calf-enated?

2:30	Dan Szymborski: Possible.

2:30	CamdenWarehouse: You know what would be cool? If announcers would stop giving me the update on the number of mound visits remaining. Just let me know when a team is out, please.

2:31	Richard: Is this the year Sean Manaea takes a step forward? Can he be a top 20-25 arm?

2:32	Dan Szymborski: I’m not THAT high on Manaea, but I think he’ll be solid.

2:32	Brett F: first deck you’re going to make when Witchwood releases?

2:32	Dan Szymborski: Probably control priest because that’s what I usually do

2:32	Adenolith: ESPN has started adding middle names to some players. I love it.

2:32	Dan Szymborski: As in printing the middle names or are we actually GIVING them middle names?

2:32	Dan Szymborski: “Sorry Ian Desmond, your middle name is The Fartamatrix now.”

2:32	Ted: But what about Ryan Flaherty?

2:32	Dan Szymborski: 350/600/750

2:33	jjp: How toast is Evan Longoria? Lightly toasted, well toasted, or flaming toaster toasted?

2:33	Dan Szymborski: Lightly

2:33	Porcho Villa: Thoughts on the Reynaldo Lopez? Looked great through two starts and velo up.

2:33	Dan Szymborski: He was good end of last year too

2:33	Keith : How much faith do you have in Minor as a starting pitcher?

2:34	Dan Szymborski: Meh

2:34	Confused: Am I the only person confused with how quiet the Daniel Murphy rehab timeline has been? Up until a few days before the season he “was on pace” for opener. Now we are a week and a half past this date and it is pretty quiets.

2:34	Dan Szymborski: I know for a fact that they’re t rying to be really careful with him

2:35	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s even ru nning yet

2:35	Porcho Villa: Matt Chapman. 11 WAR over/under?

2:35	Dan Szymborski: Over of course

2:35	Porcho Villa: Is this the year that Chris Owings figures it all out?

2:35	Dan Szymborski: Meh

2:35	Bo: What would a theoretical Harper contract look like… Loaded upfront with lots of opt-outs? Performance bonuses?

2:35	Dan Szymborski: Stantonish

2:36	Mountie Votto: Of course it’s early, but what do the Reds do if both Peraza and Hamilton just aren’t major league hitters? Hamilton at least has value in the field/on the bases, but what’s the backup plan?

2:36	Dan Szymborski: I think Hamilton is what he is. An awful hitter who won’t improve much who plays excellent defense and is fast

2:37	Dan Szymborski: Peraza, I think they’ll eventually cut bait on. The Reds aren’t being aggressive at seeing Senzel all over the place without reason

2:37	Mike: Once Andujar and Torres officially come up (i know andujar is presently starting) how much leeway will they have to grow if the yankees are struggling?

2:37	Dan Szymborski: Depends on thet situation. I expect they’ll be lenient.

2:37	IMW: Does Blackmon’s contract tell us anything about Donaldson’s future in the market?

2:37	Dan Szymborski: It’s not the worst comp.

2:37	Dan Szymborski: Donaldson’s goign to get a big contract, but I do think people are overrating just where it will be

2:38	CBD: Do you think Acuña is another week away for any other reason than to avoid the appearance of service time manipulation by calling him up immediately?

2:38	Dan Szymborski: To get to 20 days.

2:38	Mike: Will Arrieta finish the season with a sub 4 era?

2:39	Dan Szymborski: I’d still take the yes side of the bet

2:39	Bo: Which of the teams off to an unexpectedly hot or cold start might have a chance at keeping it up?

2:39	Dan Szymborski: Mets

2:39	Dan Szymborski: The problem with the Mets was having that actually desired rotation all healthy at the same time

2:40	Dan Szymborski: I think they fired Dr. Facilier

2:40	Dan Szymborski: I think the cold teams that ought to be godo will be fine

2:40	Anonymous Coward: Julio Teheran is toast, right? Velocity is way down.

2:41	Dan Szymborski:

2:41	CamdenWarehouse: How can the Braves win if they don’t have Matt Kemp? Who’s going to drive in runs?

2:41	Dan Szymborski: Uh, Markakis?

2:41	Dan Szymborski: EMBRACE YOUR MARKAKISMET

2:41	RotoLando: Is it Vogelbach’s time now? Baseball has been lacking in beer-league bodies since Kirby Puckett. Billy Butler never really took off.

2:41	Dan Szymborski: I sure hope so, Bartolo won’t last forever

2:41	Matt: You need to fix your Cistulli

2:41	Dan Szymborski: Gotta get some holy water.

2:42	Gub Gub: Is there an Apu Controversy in the Dan-verse?

2:42	Dan Szymborski: I like burgers made of beef, not nothing.

2:42	Gub Gub: I feel like Carlos Gonzalez got a job in Colorado on name recognition. Like a weird version of The Distinguished Gentleman, except it was the same guy.

2:42

Matt: On Friday, I watched the MASN feed of the Yanks/O’s game. Wow. What a mistake. The score bug is terrible – hides the pitch count behind a MASN logo flashing it only briefly after it increases by one. They missed the entire Ball/Strike count for an AB. Also, there was a (presumable) O’s fan in an orange Dumb and Dumber style tux. The announcers talked about how its tough to not see him, how they liked his hat, and wondered *if* it was a tuxedo. Never once mentioning the movie…..

2:42	Phil: you haven’t answer one question with a reasonable answer or insight. Why are you chatting?

2:42	Dan Szymborski: Have you met me?

2:43	Matt: Are you encouraged by Dansby Swanson so far?

2:43	Dan Szymborski: Yes. I think he’s still going to be an excellent player.

2:43	Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Time to jet. Super excited to sit in the waiting room of a Hyundai dealership while I get my oil changed.

2:43	Josh: Is Maikel Franco breaking out? His exit velo is way up.

2:44	Dan Szymborski: He CAN hit hard. I think his breakout depends on where the plate discipline goes; you have to be good enough to take advantage of the power.

2:44	Matt: Dan, your late chat post had me scrambling for questions, and I totally forgot to mention: I missed you.

2:44	Dan Szymborski: Love ya too! I needed that after Phil’s comment.

2:44	MortalWombat: Drop or Nick Ahmed or Jed Lowrie? 12 team H2H pts. league. Do you see anything behind their hot streaks or am I wasting space on my 25 man roster? I am in need of OF. Any trade value in these guys?

2:45	Dan Szymborski: I’d probably drop Ahmed first. Not crazy with either on a 12-team

2:45	Its Me: Mine is now Alexia Bliss

2:45	April: Speaking of LOLROCKIES, why have McMahon on the opening day roster to barely play?

2:45	Dan Szymborski: Colorado is AMAZINGLY frustrating.

2:45	Dan Szymborski: OK, you’ve made the decision that Ian Desmond helps your team win at first in 2018 more than Ryan McMahon does. Little out there, but OK, sure.

2:46	Dan Szymborski: At that point, McMahon should be playing in the minors full-time, preferably at multiple infield positions. Not sitting his ass on the bench making pinch-hit apeprances.

2:46	Eric: I guess I’m late on this, but what happened to Papelbon? One mediocre season and his career is over? Was he just that big of an ass that teams didn’t want him around?

2:46	Dan Szymborski: He’s really difficult for coaching staffs to work with. Plus, the buzz has been he’s asking too much to come back.

2:47	Matt: My early analysis says that Stanton to the Yanks is the WORST trade EVER in the HISTORY of things that are comparable.

2:47	Hannah Hochevar: I don’t think I ever heard your Alex Cobb take (the signing felt so similar to when they brought back Chris Davis: the long wait, the being the only suitor, the paying top price even without seeming competition) but after watching Mike Wright yesterday…

2:47	Dan Szymborski: I think the Cobb signing was just fine.

2:47	Dan Szymborski: As long as you’re going to try and compete in Machado’s final Baltiyear, you HAVE to sign a pitcher better than Andrew Cashner

2:47	Joe: ROS berrios or Luis castillo?

2:47	Dan Szymborski: Berrios, but it’s close

2:47	Scherzer’s Blue Eye: you know what would be great–if they stopped this pace of play non-sense and corrected the biggest issue: Terrible Ump Shows.

2:47	Guest: …The fingers you have used are too fat. To obtain a special typing wand, please mash the keyboard now.

2:48	Matt: Based up our new and recent information, on a scale of Rob Refsnyder to Vernon Wells what should we expect the rest of the Stanton deal to look like?

2:48	Dan Szymborski: An overpay but not alarmingly slow

2:48	Dan Szymborski: Don’t go too nouts about the start

2:48	The Toddfather: Is the NL East the most competitive division in MLB?

2:48	Dan Szymborski: I think AL East will be

2:48	brood550: When will Beltre fall off, and will it be as colossal as Beltran last year?

2:48	Dan Szymborski: It would have to be, because a slow decline means he can play until like 60

2:49	Bob Villar: Believer in Corbin’s fast start?

2:50	Dan Szymborski: Well, not at his current ERA, but he was REALLY good last year and if that slider has taken another step up, he’s frightening

2:50	John: Does the Kapler coverage remind you a little of the Paul DePodesta coverage when he took over the Dodgers? Seems like most of the Kapler criticism so far is old school people who don’t like trying new things.

2:50	Dan Szymborski: In fairness, Kapler really did screw up some stuff his first several games.

2:50	Dan Szymborski: It’s just that stupid people decide that using ten billion relievers and not knowing the warmup rules is somehow a sabermetric thing.

2:50	Dan Szymborski: And besides, there is no sabermetrics war. Sabermetrics won.

2:51	Dan Szymborski: Thinking that sabermetrics lost the war is like being a German in 1920 who think the army was stabbed in the back.

2:51	Sleepy: More likely to happen this season for Stanton–75 bombs or 300 K’s?

2:51	Dan Szymborski: 75 still. 300 is a LOT

2:51	Szympatico: Lindor’s slow start?

2:51	Dan Szymborski: April

2:51	joe: What do you expect from Ryu tomorrow

2:52	Dan Szymborski: tatsumaki senpuukyaku

2:52	Josh: Colin Moran better than the projections?

2:52	Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say that.

2:52	Max Scherzer’s Brown Eye: Think Glasnow is going to get stretched in the bullpen (3IP last time out) to move to the rotation? If so, over/under 12% BB rate once in the rotation?

2:52	Dan Szymborski: I think over. It’s still something he has to work on.

2:52	Don Dada: Has Ian Kennedy found the fountain of youth?

2:52	Dan Szymborski: He needs a very specific fountain of youth that makes you exactly 26

2:54	Matt: I know you don’t answer fantasy questions, so let’s pretend that I actually care about both the Brewers and meaningless situational statistics for a minute: Who’s going to close in MIL – Albers or Barnes?

2:55	Dan Szymborski: I suspect they’ll lean on Albers more unless it looks like Knebel will be out even longer

2:55	Don Dada: Do you see any of Winker or Schebler providing any value long term?

2:56	Dan Szymborski: Winker yes, Schebler’s really just a fourth outfielder type when it comes down to it

2:56	Dan Szymborski: Though in fairness, Schebler hasn’t been terrible in his CF appearances

2:56	Gub Gub: I need a new ballgmae chant that works in the word “corpulence”. Any ideas?

2:56	Dan Szymborski: Ordinance?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: THE PLANE’S SHAKING FROM TURBLENCE, NOT FROM MY AMPLE CORPULENCE!

2:57	Dan Szymborski: Turblence?

2:57	The Toddfather: Which team will Machado play for in September 2018?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: Phillies

2:57	Josh: Can you rank Danny Duffy, Mikolas and Newcomb?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:57	Max: How much is statcast data incorporated into ZIPs projections?

2:58	Dan Szymborski: Used mainly in B ABIP stuff right now

2:58

vivalajeter: There’s talk about how it’s fine putting Judge in CF because opportunities are CF are down significantly over the last decade (something like 20-25% fewer chances). On the flip side, doesn’t that mean someone like Hamilton (or Lagares, or Kiermaier) is less valuable? At least with the Mets, Lagares is a 5th OF. But shouldn’t the Reds trade Hamilton instead of starting him every day?

2:58	Dan Szymborski: I’d trade Hamilton.

2:58	Dan Szymborski: I do like putting Judge in center. I like challenging your best young talent. Give them new hurdles to leap until they can’t

2:58	Gub Gub: Think outside the box, and come up with a between-innings race that isn’t the usual food/beverage items. Like the Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse mascot race.

2:59	Dan Szymborski: American Gladiators joust to upgrade your seat.

2:59	Dan Szymborski: But the loser is drowned in Skyline chili

2:59	Dan: Am I crazy for thinking this Michael Conforto hype is a little overblown? I think he’s a very solid 3-4 WAR player but it seems as if he’s being regarded as a superstar. Am I wrong?

2:59	Dan Szymborski: You’re not. He’s a really good player

3:00	Gub Gub: I got a lot of insight about the ballpark food consumption of professional athletes. Point, Zim

3:00	Joe: Wow…saw my real name up there and thought you answered my question, nope. Luis Castillo or berrios ros?

3:00	Dan Szymborski: I did!

3:00	Dan Szymborski: Berrios by a hair

3:00	CamdenWarehouse: Not sure if either of us can answer objectively, but who is more frustrating of an org to follow: the Rockies or Orioles?

3:00	Dan Szymborski: Rockies. Less personal history.

3:00	Post Malone: So your response to why you don’t offer anything valuable in these chats is because that’s just the way you are? It’s funny to an extent but I’m sure there are legit questions that deserve a response that are passed over so you can respond with snark.

3:00	Dan Szymborski: I’M GOING TO GO HIDE IN MY PANIC ROOM AND CALL THE POLICE

3:01	Dan Szymborski: This is April.

3:01	Dan Szymborski: Almost nothing that has happened has long-term meaning.

3:01	The Toddfather: Is Blizzard just running out of unique ideas now with odd and even based decks?

3:01	Dan Szymborski: It’s a good try, but I don’t see enough motivation to build and odd/even deck. There’s no win condition, it’s just a bu nch of value cards.

3:01	Dan Szymborski: Not enough to wrecking your curve.

3:02	Dan Szymborski: Let’s say you build an odd deck. You have no 1 manas on 1. No exact 3 manas on 3. No exact 5 manas on 5. You need a MUCH better motivation to do that than the mildly stronger cards shown.

3:02	Al Gone Quinn: One fantasy league I play in has participants in their 20’s, 30’s, 40’s, 50’s and 60’s, ranging from 20 to 68. Can you think of anything other than tattoos that appeals to men across such a broad range of ages?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: Beer

3:02	RotoLando: Heh heh….”nouts” the British spelling of nuts.

3:03	BESR: Thoughts on Alex Blandino? Seems like he’ll replace Suarez for the time being

3:03	Dan Szymborski: ZiPS wasn’t excited, but I think when you’re rebuilding — as the Reds realistically still are doing — you give a guy like that, who was veyr competent in the minors last year, the chances to prove he can do something you didn’t think.

3:03	Rox Fan: Am I wrong in saying that this is the best overall pitching staff (rotation, bullpen) that the Rockies have ever had?

3:04	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you’re far off. The pitching staff was so underrated last year.

3:04	Andrew: Given that balls in play are way down and not equally across all positions, are we going to see changes in positional adjustments or defensive contributions to WAR calculations?

3:04	Dan Szymborski: Likely not. These should be done based on long-term reasons.

3:04	The Toddfather: So, you’re essentially saying that there will be a baseball Hitler to take advantage of the shattered old-school economy?

3:04	Dan Szymborski: It’s possible.

3:04	CamdenWarehouse: 2:51 for your first one word “April” reply. I’m impressed with the restraint

3:04	Jkim: >>Thinking that sabermetrics lost the war is like being a German in 1920 who think the army was stabbed in the back. So you’re saying that old schoolers = LITERALLY NAZIS?

3:04	Dan Szymborski: Figuratively

3:05	Dan Szymborski: Besides, if you’re on the internet, you should know that everyone disagrees with you is a nazi.

3:05	Fat Matt: I miss good player nicknames. Big Donkey, Pronk, etc were so much better than A-rod and A-gon

3:05	Dan Szymborski: I want Crime Horse to catch on for Eric Hosmer.

3:05	Kris Bryant’s radiant blue eyes: Dan… Get Off My Lawn!

3:05	v2micca: Wow, did we really just go to the Nazi argument when discussing Kapler? I thought we had another 2 months before getting to that point at least.

3:06	Dan Szymborski: It’s more of a Junker argument than a Nazi one.

3:06	Sean: A lot of people had no problem quickly rushing to claim that the Dbacks starting pitching would regress a bit. But did anyone take into account their starting pitching getting better? Godley and Corbin look like they might be taking big steps forward.

3:06	Dan Szymborski: I still think they will regress over all, but certainly no complaints so far.

3:07	Dan Szymborski: Again, Corbin’s slider has been frigging crazypants.

3:07	Gub Gub: Every argument with an umpire should be accompanied by old-timey saloon fight music. Can you play ragtime piano?

3:07	Dan Szymborski: Not a bad idea.

3:07	Dan Szymborski: I’ve played piano since age 5 and I have some Joplin and Confrey in my repertoire.

3:07	Dan Szymborski: Though what I play skews more classical

3:07	JJ Fartz: Corbin or Luis Castillo this year?

3:07	Dan Szymborski: Corbin

3:07	WormsleyCommonGang: Bring a tear of joy to my eyes and tell me everything is gonna be alright.

3:07	Dan Szymborski: I won’t tell you what the sun has planned long-term

3:07	Pine Needles: Where’s the best place to buy sunglasses?

3:07	Dan Szymborski: A store.

3:08	Dan Szymborski: I tried to buy sunglasses at a tree, but there weren’t many options.

3:08	Matt: “We want a pitcher, not a corpuli-tcher!” (No, I don’t know the definition of corpulence)

3:08	Kris Bryant’s radiant blue eyes: Tumescence

3:08	WormsleyCommonGang: What’s your favorite Kenny Loggins song?

3:09	Dan Szymborski: I’m Free (Heaven Helps the Man)

3:09	Matt: Between Innings race idea: Interns dressed in the uniforms of your 4 divisional opponents racing down the stairs to the cellar (shown on the jumbotron, obviously)

3:09	Fat Matt: If you don’t like Dan’s style, don’t read the whole chat

3:09	The Toddfather: Which MLB player is most likely to actually own a panic room?

3:10	Dan Szymborski: David Eckstein, who is small enough that he might be captured by a childsnatcher and be forced to work in a Dickensian molybdenum mine.

3:10	WormsleyCommonGang: I personally enjoy the April responses.

3:10	Marc: Why is the base replacement level in calculating WAR for DH players so much higher than for other positions, if the replacement level position for that position is essentially the average pitcher?

3:10	Dan Szymborski: Two parts here.

3:10	Dan Szymborski: First, if you’re in a game in which you can use a designated hitter, the replacement is a designated hitter, not a pitcher

3:11	Dan Szymborski: You’re not required to use a designated hitter. But you’re also not required to inhale oxygen.

3:11	Dan Szymborski: But also, I think there’s strong evidence that DH replacement level is too high. Even when you filter out as much injury things as possible, players appear to hit worse as a DH than when they play the field

3:11	Dan Szymborski: I use 1B level for DH

3:12	brood550: Watching the turnover on Overwatch rosters is like watching a bad reality TV show full of people worse than typical reality TV stars…

3:12	Dan Szymborski: Suddenly wealthy 18-21 year olds aren’t exactly known for their calm, collected decision making.

3:12	Gub Gub: Seen Ready Player One yet?

3:12	Dan Szymborski: I have not

3:12	Nihiliszymborski: Performance to date has no value. The future is a dark, empty void. All is meaningless.

3:12	The Toddfather: Do you watch any Twitch streamers? HS or otherwise?

3:13	Dan Szymborski: Kibler, Trump, Ratsmah, ADWCTA/Merps, SimCopter1

3:13	Uther: How about the Reds do something creative, like try Mesoraco or Duvall at 3B, or call up top prospect Senzel? Oh wait, here is a better idea: Cliff Pennington.

3:13	Dan Szymborski: Mesoraco’s bones are made of matzoh at this point, so you can see why they’re careful.

3:13	Dan Szymborski: I WOULD try Duvall at third though.

3:13	Nutso: HR+RBI or OBP+Runs scored?

3:13	Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me put you in jail. I know bad dudes.

3:14	Dan: In a world where a salary cap is instilled starting in 2020, pick one franchise to be GM for through 2030.

3:14	Dan Szymborski: Cincinnati. Mostly becuase they’re within driving distance.

3:14	Dan Szymborski: Indians most serious answer.

3:14	Dan Szymborski: I think they’re the organization I would do the best with.

3:14	Dan Szymborski: But again, I don’t have any desire to work full-time for a team.

3:14	Dan Szymborski: You want data? Fine. Call me. Change careers? Nope.

3:15	White Sox fan: I know it’s April, but Moncada K rate is alarming again. Takes way too many good pitches.

3:15	Dan Szymborski: In very limited sample size, his advanced plate discipline numbers are generally improved

3:16	CamdenWarehouse: Country Breakfast was an 80 grade nickname

3:16	Dan Szymborski: I was really hoping when he joined the Yankees he’d declare that he was now City Breakfast

3:16	Sean: B. Abip.

3:16	Mike: Is Ian Kennedy the ace of the Royals staff?

3:16	Dan Szymborski: Duffy until more than two starts proves otherwise.

3:16	Kris Bryant’s radiant blue eyes: Welcome to the Seinfeld baseball chat about nothing. You are still in my yard!

3:16	Addison Reed: My favorite Kenny Loggins song is the one from Vacation. Addison REE-EEEE-EEEE-EEEEE-EEEEE-EEEEE-EEEEE-EEEEE-EEEE-EEEED.

3:17	Aussie Ozzie Ozzie: Ozzie Albies is the best defensive second baseman in baseball right now. Agree or disagree.

3:18	Dan Szymborski: I’m not there yet, but could be convinced fairly soon.

3:18	(not that) James: Don’t let ol Post Malone get to you, Dan. He’s just sore that his mustache is just two little dogs kissing.

3:18	(not that) James:

3:18	Pine Needles: Does Corbin’s increased slider usage make him an increased injury risk?

3:18	Dan Szymborski: I’m not convinced that we really have the secret to keeping pitchers from being injured.

3:18	CamdenWarehouse: What I read there is pitcher hitting = death by asphyxiation

3:18	Can’t read good: Who is your favorite reporter who is also friends with the teenage mutant ninja turtles?

3:18	Dan Szymborski: I heard Casey Jones did some freelance work.

3:19	CamdenWarehouse: If teams want Data, they’re not calling you. They’re calling Brent Spiner.

3:19	Dan Szymborski: DATA DIED

3:19	Slapshot: If you were manager of an NL team would you go with a 7-man bullpen and 5-man bench, or an 8-man bullpen and 4-man bench?

3:19	Dan Szymborski: I’d go 6-man bullpen.

3:19	Dan Szymborski: Bring back actual long reliever role.

3:20	Dan Szymborski: I would always be trying to break in some kind of interestingish AAA starter that can’t fit into the rotation as a long reliever.

3:20	Dan Szymborski: If I ran the Brewers, Josh Hader would end the season with something like 70 innings in 30 games.

3:21	Dan Szymborski: On that note, we’re at 3:20 so time to end the chat that hurt my feelings.

3:21	Dan Szymborski: You can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborsk on Twitter.

3:21	Dan Szymborski: And remember: APRIL

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/9/18