Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/11/16
April 11, 2016
| 11:59 |
: I have arrived to destroy your way of life.
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| 11:59 |
: OBP League would you do a $4 Story for a $7 CMart?
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| 11:59 |
: I don’t think so – even if he comes down to earth a bit (which he will), he’s got firm possession of a Coors Field starting position.
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| 12:00 |
: Is a 100r 80rbi season a possibility with Joe Panik? With Pagan in the 9 hole, he seems to be in a pretty ideal spot for both R and RBI.
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| 12:00 |
: That’s a bit aggressive – even a Giants team leading the league in runs won’t have a ton of runs to give out given the park
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| 12:01 |
: They have like 1 or 2 100-run seasons since Bonds, IIRC
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| 12:03 |
: I think they probably need to be the league’s best offense by a good amount to make it likely
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| 12:03 |
: how worried should jays fans be by drew storen’s loss of 2+ mph on his 4seamer?
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| 12:03 |
: Concerned
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| 12:03 |
: Which hornet’s nest is less of a painful sting, Kennedy @ Hou, or Eovaldi @ Tor? Thanks
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| 12:03 |
: I can’t believe I”m saying this, but probably Kennedy because Eiland is a warlock
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| 12:03 |
: Do you see Eugenio Suarez outperforming Todd Frazier this year? Is it wrong to view him as kind of a mini-JD Martinez? Their swings seem really similar.
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| 12:04 |
: I like Suarez and it’s possibly though I’d still expect Frazier to be better overall.
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| 12:04 |
: Hi Dan, what’s wrong with Shelby Miller right now?
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| 12:05 |
: April
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| 12:05 |
: That Mazara HR looked like a fly ball…. then, it landed it no man’s land? Seems like some serious upside? How does he compare to Kepler? Thanks
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| 12:05 |
: I like Mazara a bit better than Kepler.
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| 12:05 |
: How concerned should the Twins be with their strikeout rate? Although it’s only been one week, strikeout % stabilizes earlier than other metrics, and guys like Sano and Park just aren’t making contact.
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| 12:05 |
: There’s earlier and there’s EARLIER
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| 12:07 |
: Seriously guys – there’s a huge difference between stats stabilizing more quickly than other stats and stats stabilizing instantly.
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| 12:08 |
: That strikeout rates tend to stabilize more quickly than, say BABIP doesn’t mean that there’s no such thing as a small sample size.
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| 12:08 |
: Since I’m not going to type this all for every one of the 10,000 questions or so along this vein, I’m declaring April in effect until the end of April.
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| 12:08 |
: Hi Dan, let me help you out by summarizing the chat you’ll be having:
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| 12:08 |
: TREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORYTREVORSTORY
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| 12:08 |
: What will it take for our offense to click?
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| 12:08 |
: April
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| 12:08 |
: I’ve said it multiple times in chats over the past few weeks….I think the Astros traded the wrong guy. I’d take VV over McCullers longterm.
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| 12:08 |
: I do like McCullers
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| 12:09 |
: Murphy’s defense is already screwing up the Nats…but they so need his bat. Is second base optimal or what about switching him and rendon?
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| 12:09 |
: I’d personally prefer Rendon at 2B, but they’re not going to.
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| 12:09 |
: Player X had a great first week. You’re obviously going to update ZIPS for this new baseline, right?
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| 12:09 |
: Naturally
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| 12:09 |
: And since we’re back to normal, I’m saving off-topic Qs for the lightning round
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| 12:09 |
: The Reds are 5-1. Clearly they’re going to win 135 games, right?
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| 12:09 |
: Naturally
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| 12:09 |
: I’m freaking out about Keuchel. 10 BBs in 2 starts seems like a terrible sign and more than just SSS. Chalk it off to weather/April/randomness, or worry?
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| 12:10 |
: April
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| 12:10 |
: What percentage odds would you give Montero having a 30+ homer season for the Jays?
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| 12:11 |
: 1%? It’s not impossible, but he’s hit 15-20 a year in the minors and he’d have to get enough playing time to have that number of homers.
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| 12:11 |
: Not implausible, just improbable. It’s not like Darwin Barney hitting 30
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| 12:11 |
: So we know that most things so far are just small sample size… Can you name a couple of things/changes you’ve seen from players that might make you bet the over/under on their protection?
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| 12:11 |
: Writing about this for Wednesday
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| 12:12 |
: Watching Brett Lawrie reminds me of a slightly better version of Gordon Beckham, is he going to develop into anything better than that? Or is his getting dealt by the A’s this offseason an indicator that he isn’t really any good?
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| 12:12 |
: There were lots of reasons to be interested in Lawrie a few years ago, but he hasn’t really ever taken that big step forward, so his ceiling is smaller than he used to be.
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| 12:12 |
: But he’s more than slightly better than Gordon Beckham.
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| 12:12 |
: Does ESPN have exclusive rights to the makeup game from last night, whenever it is going to be played?
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| 12:12 |
: I literally have no idea.
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| 12:12 |
: What are your preferred stats to look at when evaluating pitcher performance?
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| 12:13 |
: Depends on the context.
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| 12:13 |
: Do you have any thoughts on how SaberSim is doing? You mentioned last season (I think) that you were working on your own version of single-game predictions. Any update?
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| 12:13 |
: Still a work in progress. I don’t release stuff until I’m very comfortable and have lots of test data.
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| 12:13 |
: There’s a reason ZiPS didn’t become public until 2004.
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| 12:13 |
: Hey the Orioles are 5-0. How does it feel to have math disproved forever?
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| 12:13 |
: Devastating!
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| 12:13 |
: But if something was going to destroy mathematics, I’m glad it’s my favorite team doing it.
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| 12:13 |
: Seemed like there was a bit of concern about Bumgarner going into Saturday. Where do you stand on him the rest of the year?
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| 12:14 |
: April
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| 12:14 |
: Who’s a better player OBP wise? Josh Reddick or Soler?
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| 12:14 |
: I think Reddick
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| 12:14 |
: Eugenio Suarez obviously isn’t this good, but how real is his start? The power looks legit and he’s only got one strikeout.
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| 12:15 |
: ZiPS was already projecting him to hit nearly 20 this year.
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| 12:15 |
: He’s got a 50% HR/FB. That’s not sustainable.
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| 12:15 |
: You couldn’t sustain a 50% HR/FB rate in a home run derby with prime Barry Bonds
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| 12:16 |
: Which 2 start pitcher this week? Niese or Tropeano? Thanks!
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| 12:16 |
: Tropeano
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| 12:17 |
: Joe Ross and Werth for Gallo: who says “No”?
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| 12:17 |
: Rangers
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| 12:17 |
: Tyler White’s projections look great – are you buying a .345 OBP?
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| 12:17 |
: He was always going to have a good OBP
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| 12:18 |
: ZiPS was the more negative of ZiPS/Steamer and .345 isn’t that big a stretch from the .336 projection
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| 12:19 |
: Do you think that there’s any inherent value in # of pitches/PA (on batters end)? Whenever someone has an extraordinarily long at bat it’s called productive even if it results in an out. On the other hand, less pitches/PA might result in encouraging managers to leave their pitcher in for a third time through the order.
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| 12:19 |
: There is, but it’s tricky to put an exact value on
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| 12:19 |
: Glasnow, Trea Turner, & Joc Pederson for Gerrit Cole & Yelich in a keeper league?
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| 12:19 |
: I think that’s fair – it depends which side better fits your needs.
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| 12:19 |
: (IF) Mazara sticks, will he be more valuable than Domingo Santana in redrafts? Or comparable?
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| 12:19 |
: I’ve heard way worse projections.
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| 12:19 |
: Err comparisons
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| 12:19 |
: Are the Orioles just riding an easy schedule or are they actually really good?
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| 12:19 |
: April
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| 12:20 |
: What kind of numbers do you see from Ozuna this year
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| 12:20 |
: I think the projections were about right for him.
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| 12:20 |
: Thoughts on Tyler White?
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| 12:20 |
: His name sounds like a QB.
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| 12:20 |
: Are you buying Puig’s resurgence? His batted ball speeds give a lot of reasons to buy into the hype.
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| 12:21 |
: It’s not like he stunk for a decade.
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| 12:21 |
: I mean he’s a 25 year-old that had a lot of injuries last year.
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| 12:22 |
: People acted like he was 2015 Torii Hunter in outlook or something
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| 12:22 |
: Would you drop Byung-ho Park for Jonathan Schoop? They appear to have similar ceilings, and Park is striking out over half the time, and Schoop has only two thus far.
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| 12:22 |
: If it benefits your team based on your roster needs, sure. But be careful if you’re re-evaluating an opinion that was the opposite based on six games.
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| 12:22 |
: How much does Pollock’s injury worry you for next year and beyond?
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| 12:22 |
: Very
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| 12:22 |
: Is AJ Reed worth stashing in a league w/4 bench spots and no DL?
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| 12:23 |
: Depends who exactly is the alternative.
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| 12:23 |
: what does IIRC mean
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| 12:23 |
: IIRC, if i recall correctly.
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| 12:23 |
: Does Robinson Chrinos going down re-open the door to a possible Lucroy trade to TEX?
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| 12:23 |
: It’s certainly possible
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| 12:24 |
: Presidents?
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| 12:24 |
: One of you guys has to remind me like on Sunday. I’m very scatter-brained.
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| 12:24 |
:
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| 12:25 |
: How do you feel about the effects of warming up relievers and then not using them? The best bullpens in baseball (KC, BAL, NYY) seem to go out of their way to not burn relievers.
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| 12:25 |
: I prefer not burning guys.
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| 12:25 |
: No guy I’ve seen is more on the verge of “breaking out” than Buxton. Once he starts barreling it up….. It’s time to buy, imo.
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| 12:25 |
: Drop Markakis for Mazara?
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| 12:26 |
: Well, yeah
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| 12:26 |
: Why is Markakis being rostered? Are you in a 75-team league?
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| 12:26 |
: Would you say Thor is already the best of the trio?
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| 12:26 |
: Marginally yes.
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| 12:26 |
: He’s got the highest upside of any of ’em.
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| 12:27 |
: What’d you think of Wrestlemania?
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| 12:27 |
: Meh. Too much filler, not enough sizzle.
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| 12:27 |
: Why can’t my Sox find a LHDH? Is it really this difficult to do?!?!?
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| 12:27 |
: They seem to have an unhealthy fetish with players on their roster generally
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| 12:27 |
: Are the A’s gonna make the playoffs?
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| 12:27 |
: No, but not impossible.
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| 12:27 |
: As I’ve said many times, every team in the AL had a not-completely-insane case for playoff contention.
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| 12:28 |
: It’s a bird, it’s a plane.. no it’s a slider in the dirt but even if it was a bird or a plane Josh Harrison would swing at it anyway!
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| 12:28 |
: I swear I’ve seen Jeff Francoeur swing at clouds and even visions of sliders he will face in future seasons.
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| 12:30 |
: Finnegan looked great against the Phillies, but today he pitches at Wrigley. What should we expect?
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| 12:30 |
: Tougher road, but I like Finnegan.
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| 12:30 |
: I hated their Frazier/Chapman returns, but enjoyed the Cueto return.
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| 12:30 |
: I am disappointed it took until 12:05 to get “April.”
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| 12:31 |
: Do you think Marco Estrada figured something out and remains a highly effective starter?
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| 12:31 |
: I think he’ll be fine, but not great. Now, if he keeps striking out 10 batters a game, then yeah, he’ll be really awesome
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| 12:32 |
: Are there any pitchers that hit well enough, consistently enough to justify moving them up in an optimized batting order? I’m think of Yovani Gallardo’s .254/.329/.508, 4 HR season in 2010 batting only every 5th day and have to imagine that’s an offensive performance that could play higher in the order than the typical pitcher’s spot.
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| 12:32 |
: Well, Wes Ferrell
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| 12:33 |
: There are guys like Backe or Hampton or the two-way freak like Kieschnick or Owings
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| 12:34 |
: But in most situations, even a really good hitting pitcher is a really awful hitting position player
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| 12:34 |
: Do any active pitchers even have a career 60 OPS+/wRC+? Can’t think of any. Someone who has time to check go find out
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| 12:34 |
: dan i need help what month is it right now
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| 12:34 |
: Smarch.
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| 12:34 |
: We’ve had some of that lousy Smarch weather.
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| 12:35 |
: Which projection system do you think is best at projecting pitchers and which is the best for hitters?
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| 12:35 |
: I think most of the big projection systems perform similarly and there’s no particular strength or weakness of this type.
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| 12:35 |
: How big of a difference do the changes to the fences in Miami and Coors make (or any others that I didn’t hear about). Will the changes to Toronto’s infield make a difference?
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| 12:35 |
: Too soon.
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| 12:35 |
: Excuse me, April
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| 12:35 |
: Mookie Betts currently has -0.2 fWAR. Should he be sent down to AAA for further seasoning?
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| 12:35 |
: Orioles agree.
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| 12:35 |
: Is Reed up by the end of the month given White’s performance and Gattis coming off the DL?
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| 12:36 |
: There’s less urgency
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| 12:36 |
: What is your take on the impact of the Schwarber injury? Do you feel the Cubs have the depth to cover this, but not another injury?
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| 12:36 |
: The team has good depth
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| 12:36 |
: Nothing to do with his rates per se, but Cespedes is really hacking at some terrible pitches out there. Is he normally a guy that takes awhile to get in to a groove?
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| 12:36 |
: Cespedes isn’t science hitter man.
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| 12:36 |
: Grip it and rip it
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| 12:36 |
: Thoughts on Mallex Smith? Think he hits and gets on base enough to make a big SB impact in standard leagues? Does he stick around?
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| 12:36 |
: I think the league needs to be fairly deep
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| 12:36 |
: Do you think Nicasio can be a viable rotation option until June? I’d love to see him hold down the fort for Glasnow then shift to a relief role(can’t see Nicasio’s arm being able to handle a full season of starting)
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| 12:36 |
: Yes
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| 12:37 |
: “April” is a boring answer. What’s something you’ve seen in the first week that might be real?
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| 12:37 |
: The chicken I’m currently eating appears to be real as it is satisfying my stomach.
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| 12:37 |
: And giving beer belly, my stomach does appear to recognize its abilities at identifying food that exists.
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| 12:37 |
: Given my
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| 12:37 |
: When’s the last time you were fooled by “April”?
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| 12:38 |
: When I was on vacation in Maine and forgot it had become May
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| 12:38 |
: Trying to decide if it’s nice having two Bumgarner/Kershaw matchups in two weeks or if it’d be better to have them spaced out. Thoughts?
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| 12:38 |
: We should have them whenever possible, by MLB rule
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| 12:38 |
: What do you expect the Dodger rotation to look like at the ASB ?
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| 12:40 |
: With their injury record, I expect the Dodger ASB rotation to be Clayton Kershaw, Jharel Cotton, Orel Hershiser, Carl Hubbell, and Georges Danton.
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| 12:40 |
: Who do you think has a better season, Vince Velasquez or Aaron Sanchez?
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| 12:40 |
: Sanchez
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| 12:40 |
: Cardinals look a hot mess to me. Who should they be starting in OF?
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| 12:40 |
: April
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| 12:41 |
: Which tool would the average person score the highest in?
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| 12:41 |
: Fielding? Not that they’d excel in that either
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| 12:41 |
: Chances Tyler White sticks? Reed will eventually come up but do you think White sticks at 3B or DH?
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| 12:42 |
: If he continues to hit, they’ll find a spot, though I don’t think it’ll be 3B
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| 12:42 |
: Was reading in “The Arm” about the insanely punishing way Japanese pitchers are brought up. Could this paradoxically make NPB pitchers a better bet for durability (because anyone with weak elbows would’ve blown them out already way before reaching adulthood) than their more-sheltered American counterparts?
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| 12:42 |
: Arguably yes. The issue of whether it’s moral to burn through players like that, Hunger Games style, is another one.
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| 12:43 |
: I know it’s just April, but could Logan Morrison’s poor performance cause him to lose PT to Pearce? I think Pearce could be better offensively with equal ABs
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| 12:43 |
: Yes. Morrison just isn’t a good player.
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| 12:43 |
: Do you buy the theory that West Coast ballparks have bigger day/night splits than non-West Coast ballparks because the marine layer or something? The data seems sketchy but I want to believe.
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| 12:43 |
: I haven’t researched.
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| 12:43 |
: Is Aaron Nola an ace this year, next year, ever?
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| 12:43 |
: I’m not sure he has ace upside
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| 12:44 |
: Joey Rickard isn’t as good as his first week, but is a high-contact, good-running slap hitter like him a good fit in the context of the rest of the Orioles lineup?
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| 12:44 |
: Yes, though I don’t think he’ll be anywhere near this good obviously
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| 12:44 |
: Brock Holt is eligible for every non-battery position in Yahoo leagues this year. Is he secretly one of the most valuable players in fantasy leagues with shallow benches?
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| 12:44 |
: In very specific situations, if you take advantage of it.
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| 12:44 |
: The key to positional flexibility players is you need to design your roster to take advantage of it.
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| 12:44 |
: FOr example, taking risks that the flexibility players.
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| 12:45 |
: For example, having a player that slots in at SS makes Tulowitzki more valuable.
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| 12:45 |
: Not sure what the big deal with Trevor Story is. He currently has a lower OPS and wRC+ than Franisco Liriano. Big friggin’ deal…
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| 12:45 |
: When creating playoff odds, would you simulate 10,000 seasons or 10,000 seasons worth of games (simulate each game from each season) if that makes any sense. I feel like the fangraphs projections are too top heavy (the playoff odds for the projected favorites like the Indians and Red Sox seem way too high).
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| 12:45 |
: I do a million years. I don’t know FG’s method.
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| 12:45 |
: You’re not at all concerned about Park’s 52% K rate, even? I mean we have nothing else to go off of and his rate in Korea was also high.
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| 12:46 |
: There’s concern and there’s using 6 games to drastically change your opinions.
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| 12:48 |
: It looks like last year Pedro Alvarez hit lefties as good as righties. Maybe he doesn’t need to be platooned after all?
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| 12:48 |
: One year platoon splits are as good at predicting the future as Ruben Amaro when giving out a $125 million deal.
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| 12:49 |
: I KNOW IT’S APRIL BUT I JUST WANTED YOUR FIRST IMPRESSIONS. DAMNIT DAN WHY YOU GOTTA DO THIS TO ME.
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| 12:49 |
: My first impression is that it was March, which turned out to be erroneous as it is APril.
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| 12:49 |
: Odds Story hits less than 30 home runs?
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| 12:49 |
: Pretty good now.
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| 12:49 |
: Errr
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| 12:49 |
: I read that as more.
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| 12:49 |
: Because I’m apparently functionally illiterate.
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| 12:50 |
: Somewhere around a coin flip.
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| 12:50 |
: It’s not like he was predicting to hit 3 homers for the year
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| 12:50 |
: Who’s the most underrated team?
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| 12:50 |
: White Sox. Only two ESPN panelist (Padilla and that Szymborski fucktard) even picked them to make the playoffs
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| 12:50 |
: How April is April?
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| 12:51 |
: April is the Apriliest April since Germinal.
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| 12:52 |
: Horrible team construction I know but I inherited this team, what is the worst pitcher you would trade Rizzo for if you already have Chris Davis, Albert Pujols, and Freddie Freeman as 1b options. The best offer I got for any of the other 3 was Jose Quintana.
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| 12:52 |
: Quintana is better in real life than fantasy
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| 12:53 |
: Someone dropped Stroman in my league. Would you part with Hendricks, Gio, Nicasio or VV to make the claim?
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| 12:53 |
: Hendricks and Nicasio at least – Stroman’s got so much upside
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| 12:53 |
: With the Gregory Polanco extension does Austin Meadows eventually get traded this season or next ?
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| 12:53 |
: It’s possible, but there’s no reason for the Pirates to plan what they’r egoing to do yet
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| 12:54 |
: This is the part when I sadly remind Pirates fans that Andrew McCutchen is a free agent after 2018.
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| 12:54 |
: Too early to get excited about Aaron Sanchez?
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| 12:54 |
: Never too early to be excited simply because of his filthy his stuff is.
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| 12:55 |
: Garciaparra really a good comp for Mazara? Beyond sharing a Nomahhh
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| 12:55 |
: Doesn’t strike me
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| 12:55 |
: I read that as why is Markakis being rostered in MLB
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| 12:55 |
: That works too
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| 12:55 |
: How worried are you about DeGrom’s lat tightness?
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| 12:55 |
: Yes, actually
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| 12:56 |
: But unless there’s been news change this morning, the team’s being careful
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| 12:56 |
: You don’t want a pitcher altering his delivery to compensate for something.
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| 12:56 |
: ROS % of Trevor Story articles with a terrible pun in the title?
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| 12:56 |
: 82%
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| 12:56 |
: Um, guys? Bryce Harper hasn’t struck out yet.
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| 12:56 |
: He just hasn’t chosen to strike out.
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| 12:57 |
: Worst defense in MLB this year? Padres and White Sox both seem like contenders.
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| 12:57 |
: White SOx *have* improved
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| 12:57 |
: Mets are a sleeper
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| 12:58 |
: The answer is probably “April” – but is Grichuk’s start concerning enough that I would be fine dropping him for Mazara? I feel like Mazara over the next few weeks is more certain than Grichuk.
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| 12:58 |
: April.
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| 12:58 |
: Can Foltenyweicz be a #2 starter for Braves this year?
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| 12:58 |
: Quality wise I dont’ think so
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| 12:58 |
: Who is April and why is she making guys play better or worse than they’re supposed to?
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| 12:58 |
: She’s super-hot
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| 12:58 |
: Just reviewing your chat skills, it feels like you’ve lost your fastball. April?
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| 12:59 |
: April
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| 12:59 |
: George Brett’s brother, Ken, could really hit. He often pinch hit for the Pirates.
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| 12:59 |
: Both these points are correct.
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| 12:59 |
: Assuming Tyler White’s success continues, does that effect the date of AJ Reed’s eventual call up?
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| 12:59 |
: Certainly makes it less urgent
|
| 12:59 |
: What do you make of Shields? Decline or rebound this year?
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| 12:59 |
: I think a moderate bounceback
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| 12:59 |
: Will Sano bomb or is he just starting slow? He is drawing walks…
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| 1:00 |
: April
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| 1:00 |
: Whats the name of the reporter in Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles thats friends with them?
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| 1:00 |
: I wouldn’t call April a reporter as she mostly served as a propagandist for the ninja turtles.
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| 1:00 |
: You can’t watch the cartoon and tell me that there was any sense of objectivity.
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| 1:01 |
: For example, when reporting negative information on a subject, it’s customary for a reporter to contact the subject for their side of the story.
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| 1:01 |
: The reporting on Shredder was constantly biased and incomplete.
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| 1:01 |
: Carlos Gomez looks truly awful…his helmet falls off on half his swings…is he completely terrible now?
|
| 1:01 |
: April
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| 1:01 |
: how do you know the chicken you’re eating isn’t just a VR simulacrum conjured up by the matrix
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| 1:01 |
: I don’t. I’m not positive about anything.
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| 1:01 |
: I’m of that school of thought that if the ability to simulate the universe ever could happen that it’s more likely we’re in a simulation than the reality.
|
| 1:02 |
: What’s your take on the Reds approach to rebuilding, both in terms of how well they’ll fare and whether what they’re doing is the model for other “small-market” teams to follow?
|
| 1:02 |
: They’ve done OK. Not great.
|
| 1:02 |
: Heard Kakie Baker ripped two three-baggers and a steal and a third in AAA last night. Any word on when we might see him in the bigs?
|
| 1:02 |
: Smarch.
|
| 1:02 |
: Hi Dan, is it too early to panic about the month of April? How much longer until it becomes May?
|
| 1:02 |
: About three weeks.
|
| 1:02 |
: which month is the cruelest
|
| 1:02 |
: heh.
|
| 1:02 |
: Actually, November because baseball is over.
|
| 1:02 |
: Plus you start hearing Christmas music in stores
|
| 1:03 |
: I WILL NOT HAVE A HOLLY JOLLY CHRISTMAS GO TO HELL MEIJER
|
| 1:03 |
: I heard on Alex Jones show that MLB is paying players (Jean Segura was one of the given examples) to reduce game run time. Your thoughts?
|
| 1:03 |
: wait, THAT Alex Jones?
|
| 1:03 |
: I doubt it.
|
| 1:03 |
: RIP Rob Ford Can you pour one out, please?
|
| 1:04 |
: Dan: in a keeper league do you like Grichuk of the Cards? Hits the ball awfully hard. Plate discipline is lacking but he’s young. Take a chance on him? It might be a great buy low opportunity. Thx.
|
| 1:04 |
: I think he’ll be fine.
|
| 1:04 |
: If it’s Japan wouldn’t it be more Battle Royale style then Hunger Games? Geez Dan
|
| 1:04 |
: Good point.
|
| 1:04 |
: Trevor Story total HR/RBI total at year’s end. Go.
|
| 1:04 |
: His homers divided by his RBIs will be a number less than 1.
|
| 1:04 |
: You can only get a HR/RBI of 1 if all your RBI are solo homers.
|
| 1:05 |
: Given enough solo homers this year he can *approach* 1, but he’s at 0.583 right now.
|
| 1:05 |
: He can get up to .881 if he just has 30 solo homers and no other RBI
|
| 1:06 |
: (30 additional solo homers)
|
| 1:06 |
: Best place to eat in K.C.?
|
| 1:06 |
: Haven’t been in KC enough.
|
| 1:06 |
: But leaving this Q open for others to answer.
|
| 1:06 |
: Is eno sarris’ hair real or is it a hologram
|
| 1:06 |
: Real and fabulous
|
| 1:06 |
: Ray Searage is my Spirit Animal. No question; just letting you know
|
| 1:07 |
:
|
| 1:08 |
: Why hasn’t a vacuum cleaning company sponsored a sort of dugout duster, where they could be Hoovering up all the debris from the players?
|
| 1:08 |
: The Orioles are the first visiting team to deal with Boston’s smokeless tobacco ban. Please tell us how you feel about that.
|
| 1:08 |
: I only approve of smokeless tobacco bans enacting privately as part of agreements between MLB and the MLBPA
|
| 1:08 |
: April from the Ninja Turtles or April from Parks and Recreation?
|
| 1:08 |
: Well parks and rec obviously
|
| 1:08 |
: It might be April today but tomorrow we get August.
|
| 1:09 |
: YOUR CALENDAR IS DEFECTIVE
|
| 1:09 |
: YOU ARE GOING TO BE SURPRISED IN THREE WEEKS
|
| 1:09 |
: How long do you think a team could place a fully uniformed corpse on their bench before the media or baseball fans would notice?
|
| 1:09 |
: 5 or 6 years. See Skip Schumaker’s employment
|
| 1:09 |
: His retirement was issued by his agent because people were starting to get suspicious
|
| 1:09 |
: APRIL is the cruellest month, breeding
Prospects out of the dead land, mixing Memory and desire, stirring Dull fans with spring homers. |
| 1:09 |
: Whats a good sample size to make declarations?
|
| 1:10 |
: When you have a weapon and the other guy doesn’t
|
| 1:10 |
: What’s the best topic for picking up ladies at a bar? WAR or SIERA?
|
| 1:10 |
: WAR. SIERA sounds like you’re talking about your existing girlfriend
|
| 1:10 |
: What was Master Splinter’s favourite month?
|
| 1:11 |
: October. After a smelly summer in the sewers, cold weather probably a relief.
|
| 1:11 |
: Hey they had Heroes of the Storm on ESPN2 last night. Is e-sports going mainstream?
|
| 1:11 |
: Well yeah
|
| 1:11 |
: Everyone in this chat needs to read this: http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/older-hitters-are-declining-but-its-not-because-they-cant-stand-the-heat/
|
| 1:12 |
: What’s your favourite grammatical quibble
|
| 1:12 |
: your/you’re is a classic
|
| 1:12 |
: also people using the possessive it’s.
|
| 1:12 |
: This is the worst chat ive ever seen. Why did you even mail this in? Just cancel next time
|
| 1:12 |
: WEVE SET A RECORD GUYS
|
| 1:12 |
:
|
| 1:12 |
: Is there any way to access old Baseruns data (2002-2014)? I’m looking for the data for a school project. Thanks Dan!
|
| 1:13 |
: Ask a david?
|
| 1:13 |
: Hello Dan, haven’t you earned enough money to buy another vowel?
|
| 1:13 |
: Vowels are for proles.
|
| 1:13 |
: People need to understand that K% and BB% stabilization for teams as a whole and individual players is different. My read of these questions is that they are based on the premise that, because a player’s rates “stabilize” at 100 PA, you can also use 100 team PA to make meaningful statements about the team’s rates.
|
| 1:13 |
: I’VE BEEN A PART OF TERRIBLE CHAT HISTORY. I FEEL SO HONORED DAN
|
| 1:13 |
| 1:13 |
: OK, we’re after 1 o clock safely
|
| 1:14 |
: Let’s fire up that juicy Lightning Round.
|
| 1:14 |
: The rules of the Lightning Round are simple – I must answer every question, so long as it’s off-topic and not one of a few categories (work-related, personal Qs that I choose not to answer)
|
| 1:14 |
: This continues until I catch up or I get bored.
|
| 1:14 |
: AND GO
|
| 1:14 |
: Off Topic Q here, Are you a member of the air sex society?
|
| 1:14 |
: I am not.
|
| 1:14 |
: In defense of the Rockies, they did not directly support the Kosovo Genocide. They only endorsed Milosevic for his tax plans, and decried their support in 2003.
|
| 1:14 |
: what is the one card that at first glance seems awesome in arena mode but is actually terrible?
|
| 1:15 |
: Many Warrior cards found in Warrior Control decks that people think are good in Arena.
|
| 1:15 |
: Arena is a world of tempo, so Warrior cards like Shield Block or neutral used heavily by Warrior like Acolyte of Pain aren’t that good in Arena
|
| 1:15 |
: Which Naxx/GvG card will you miss the most in standard? Which will you be most glad to not see again (unless you play wild)?
|
| 1:16 |
: Loatheb, Piloted Shredder
|
| 1:16 |
: Who is your favorite Teenage Mutant Ninja Turle character?
|
| 1:16 |
: Raphael
|
| 1:16 |
: Do you like fried chicken sandwiches? I went to the Mets game saturday night and it was a terrible game in the freezing cold, but the spicy chicken sandwich from Fuku was insanely good, best ballpark food I’ve ever had.
|
| 1:16 |
: Nothing wrong with a good chicken sandwich
|
| 1:16 |
: What is your favorite stuff to write about/investigate?
|
| 1:16 |
: Baseball
|
| 1:16 |
: Constantly a day late and a dollar short, but did you watch WrestleMania last weekend? A sentence I’ve never uttered before: “If it weren’t for the women’s match, that card would have been terrible.”
|
| 1:16 |
: Yes. It was kinda lame – the women’s match was one fo the highlights
|
| 1:16 |
: Did you not chat last week because you were THAT disappointed by Wrestlemania? It was bad. Nakamura though…
|
| 1:16 |
: I was at Great American Ballpark
|
| 1:17 |
: If Trevor Story was a Hearthstone card, what would he look like?
|
| 1:17 |
: +3 Attack during its first full turn on the board?
|
| 1:17 |
: Has anyone misread Fan Graphs as Fang Raphs and been disappointed that there are no vampiric ninja turtles (or Italian painters) on the site?
|
| 1:17 |
: People eat at Taco Bell, so any sort of craziness is possible.
|
| 1:17 |
: April is the month that the Old Gods come out.
|
| 1:17 |
: Are you concerned with how terrible Whispers of the Old Gods looks so far?
|
| 1:18 |
: No, I think it’ll be fine.
|
| 1:18 |
: The standard change makes it better – if Naxx and GvG weren’t rotating out, OG would be terrible
|
| 1:18 |
: Only 3 more weeks of the stalest Hearthstone meta ever. I couldn’t even be bothered to get my Tavern Brawl pack last week.
|
| 1:18 |
: Was Shane O Mac’s dive overshadowed by the women’s match?
|
| 1:18 |
: Should have been. The dive was cool, but it was also part of a rather incohesive match. Walk-spot-walk-spot-walk-spot
|
| 1:18 |
: Bebop vs. Rocksteady in a cage match
|
| 1:19 |
: Bebop strikes me as the more focused of the pair, so I’d take him
|
| 1:19 |
: It’s not about April O’Neil, it’s about ethics in turtle reporting. – Dan Szymborski on 4Chan
|
| 1:19 |
: I want nothing to do with the supporters of *or* the critics of Gamergate.
|
| 1:19 |
: It’s a multi-faceted ball of assholery, advocacy, and dishonesty on all sides. So I stay away from it completely.
|
| 1:19 |
: Bork rhymes with dork
|
| 1:20 |
: That is accurate
|
| 1:20 |
: Is bathroom graffiti just a real life chat room?
|
| 1:20 |
: Only if it’s your property
|
| 1:20 |
: Rank the Golden Girls—Rose, Blanche, Dorothy, Sophia—in terms of suitability as a life mate
|
| 1:20 |
: Blanche, Sophia, Rose, Dorothy
|
| 1:20 |
: My 3 year-old daughter and my Boston Terrier are both smarter than me. This isn’t a question I guess…
|
| 1:20 |
: chicken or seafood?
|
| 1:20 |
: Chicken because i’m not living in baltimore
|
| 1:21 |
: If I was currently living in Baltimore, seafood
|
| 1:21 |
: Will Hunter secrets still see play with Mad Scientist leaving standard?
|
| 1:21 |
: Yes, though not to the extent, I don’t think
|
| 1:21 |
: what do you think about Whispers of the Old Gods? seems not so good but dat cthun meta…
|
| 1:21 |
: Seems OK so far.
|
| 1:21 |
: Still haven’t seen 2/3 of the cards
|
| 1:21 |
: What’s the craziest drug you’ve ever done
|
| 1:21 |
: Nothing crazy. Just the usual stuff college students do
|
| 1:21 |
: <–
|
| 1:22 |
: Hi, you’ve reached the Story hotline. $4.95 a minute. Here are some words that rhyme with Story: gory, cory, allegory, Montessori…
|
| 1:22 |
: OK guys, last chance to get in on what has been called the Worst Chat Ever.
|
| 1:22 |
: Would you pay to see a James A. Garfield/Alexander Graham Bell buddy movie?
|
| 1:23 |
: Am I allowed to say absofuckinglutely?
|
| 1:23 |
: You have 10 seconds to hide your wallet from thieves, where do you stow it away?
|
| 1:23 |
: Between scrotum and leg?
|
| 1:23 |
: Or maybe in a nearby trashcan
|
| 1:23 |
: What is your favorite hearthstone twitchchat meme?
|
| 1:24 |
: General twitch or specific?
|
| 1:24 |
: Right now my favorite one is making Fidel Castro jokes about Simcopter1’s beard, but that’s not general.
|
| 1:24 |
: NAXX IS OUT is my generalized favorite
|
| 1:24 |
: “Do it. Throw it into the runner’s back.” Yeah, slightly errand 90 mph baseball in the back of the head…nice.
|
| 1:24 |
: Better chess player, Marcel Duchamp or Humphrey Bogart?
|
| 1:24 |
: Haven’t done an analysis
|
| 1:24 |
: Do you play The Show?
|
| 1:24 |
: Yes
|
| 1:24 |
: Star Wars is out on DVD. You can talk about it now.
|
| 1:24 |
: DVD? What is this, 2006?
|
| 1:24 |
: Should baseball consider putting whistle tips on the baseball like the vortex footballs?
|
| 1:25 |
: Absolutely.
|
| 1:25 |
: Well, not really
|
| 1:25 |
: Maybe in the All-Star game
|
| 1:25 |
: what is the true meaning of april?
|
| 1:25 |
: having to bring in the snow shovel that’s still leaning against one of the garage doors
|
| 1:25 |
: Manny Machado played SS the other day and (unsurprisingly) looked great there. Is there another spot it makes sense for JJ Hardy to play if they want to move him there full time? Or would they basically have to end up eating the Hardy deal?
|
| 1:26 |
: I think he’d be a perfectly competent reserve
|
| 1:26 |
: With the Giants pretty much locking up their entire team, where does Christian Arroyo play if Pagan is just keeping LF warm for Mac Williamson?
|
| 1:26 |
: Play it by ear
|
| 1:26 |
: Does ZiPS see me getting the IC belt back? No? Well okay. It was cool when I won I guess.
|
| 1:26 |
: No, WWE doesn’t like pushing new stars
|
| 1:26 |
: Conforto is a future star write it down
|
| 1:26 |
: I don’t even know where I have a pen
|
| 1:26 |
: If Trevor Story was a Hearthstone card, he would look rather two dimensional.
|
| 1:27 |
: Do you listen to hardcore history? If not, explain yourself
|
| 1:27 |
: Assuming we’re talking about Dan Carlin, yes. If it’s about a serious of pornographic movies about historical events, then I haven’t
|
| 1:27 |
: Though actually that sounds interesting
|
| 1:28 |
: THE TEAPOT DOME SCANDAL – STARRING BUSTY ST. CLAIRE
|
| 1:28 |
: For each of the 4 old gods, which class is most likely to build a deck around it?
|
| 1:28 |
: Druid? Class most likely looking for a new definition, especially if beat druid doesn’ twork out
|
| 1:28 |
: woah brah why are you talking shit about the greatest restaurant ever, taco bell
|
| 1:28 |
: I thought we were kindred spirits with your love of chicken sandwiches, the Orioles, and Raphael. But then you went and disparaged Taco Bell.
|
| 1:28 |
: I like functioning intestines
|
| 1:28 |
: Video game you’re most looking forward to that doesn’t involve anime princesses that are part dragon and part feminine hellbeasts?
|
| 1:28 |
: no man’s sky
|
| 1:28 |
: though I guess the random generator could generate anime princess that are part dragon and part feminine hellbeasts
|
| 1:29 |
: How can you defeat aggro decks without Zombie Chow, Sludge Belcher, Deathlord, Antique Healbot, etc.?
|
| 1:29 |
: They’re losing stuff too
|
| 1:29 |
: And Blizzard’s been careful avodiging giving them new stuff
|
| 1:29 |
: do you think Master of Evolution (4/5 transform a minion to 1 mana higher) and Thing From Below (5/5 Taunt costs 1 less per Totem summoned) are enough to make #ArenaShamansMatter?
|
| 1:29 |
: I think they’re both solid cards for Shaman.
|
| 1:30 |
: People don’t like Thing from Below, but even beyond hero power, which you’ll be forced to use occasionally with Shaman there are totems that have generally been meta friendly – totem golem, mana tide totem, flametongue totem
|
| 1:30 |
: I went through my shaman games in HS and I’d be able to play a 5/5 taunt on 3 or 4 a *lot*
|
| 1:30 |
: So the women’s matches have really been irking me lately, especially with the switch from Diva’s title to Women’s title. The woman who is headlining all of this wins her matches by relying on her MALE FATHER TO HELP HER OUT.
|
| 1:31 |
: Yeah, but her father is awesome.
|
| 1:31 |
: They’re slowly moving towards presenting them as real wrestlers, and I can’t complain about that
|
| 1:31 |
: Also rhymes with pork which is delicious THANKS COME AGAIN
|
| 1:31 |
: Was the attitude era the best for wwe, they can’t seem to find replacements and keep trotting out 50 to?
|
| 1:31 |
: They seem to try not to look
|
| 1:31 |
: My Golden Girls erotic fanfic is almost done. What’s your email
|
| 1:31 |
: Is there a more terrifying sign in all other 49 states than “Maryland-style crab cakes”?
|
| 1:31 |
: No
|
| 1:32 |
: You can make a good crabcake that isn’t Maryland style, but if you advertise a Maryland crab cake and there’s no Old Bay involved, you should be sent to Gitmo.
|
| 1:32 |
: What was the best and worst event in the Archon House Cup?
|
| 1:32 |
: I thought that Highlander should have been the finals and the can’t use cards with equal life and health event wasn’t worthy of a final
|
| 1:33 |
: Jeaporino is fun, but Amaz needed to have his own microphone – it sounded like he was hosting it from the next house over
|
| 1:33 |
: You have to pick one: tattoo of an oblong baseball or you only wear shirts made of old catchers gloves?
|
| 1:33 |
: I think the tattoo, unless I have to wear it on my face of something
|
| 1:33 |
: Favorite sport not baseball?
|
| 1:33 |
: Football
|
| 1:33 |
: Was speiths choke hob one of the worst in golf?
|
| 1:33 |
: My golf knowledge is limited to sucking at golf
|
| 1:33 |
: Not to get too political, but I find the Sanders campaign on the internet similar to gamergaters. No matter what side you’re on, you get dragged in to their crazy just by engaging.
|
| 1:34 |
: Not commenting. Since there’s no specific question, I can safely avoid making a political opinion.
|
| 1:34 |
: On the Batman scale where does affleck rank?
|
| 1:34 |
: Meh-plus
|
| 1:34 |
: Theoretically, I haven’t seen the movie
|
| 1:34 |
: I’m not sure FG legal department would allow you to call this the “Worst Chat Ever”. Do you have any data to prove such a statement?
|
| 1:34 |
: The guy seemed to have expertiese.
|
| 1:34 |
: I’m trying to get in dan but you just won’t pick my questions! Are they too good for the worst chat ever?
|
| 1:34 |
: You’re trying to get in Dan? This chat has taken a rather x-rated turn.
|
| 1:34 |
: My main strategy if I’m being mugged is to throw my wallet in the opposite direction of the muggers and run away.
|
| 1:34 |
: Joe’s Kansas City BBQ easy best place to eat in KC
|
| 1:35 |
: Here’s the newest card: http://imgur.com/IJexCMm Your spontaneous thoughts?
|
| 1:35 |
: Fine if my deck is slow enough.
|
| 1:35 |
: Well , maybe not
|
| 1:36 |
: I initially read it as draw 2 and get copies of each.
|
| 1:36 |
: Raw after Mania disappointed too except for my promo.
|
| 1:36 |
: Have you ever had coffee in an establishment without edison bulbs, and if so, did you burn that place down
|
| 1:36 |
: I have never burned down a coffee shop
|
| 1:36 |
: my opinion: cthun – warrior, ysharrj – druid, yoggsaron – mage, n’zoth – bit of a tossup but maybe priest or rogue?
|
| 1:36 |
: yoggsaron: Level 23 games.
|
| 1:37 |
: Do you worry about the criticism of Hearthstone that Blizzard’s need to constantly sell new cards means they have perverse incentives to constantly unbalance the game rather than let it reach an equilibrium on its own?
|
| 1:37 |
: Not really – people more likely to buy cards if they’re enjoying the game
|
| 1:37 |
: Do you enjoy drunken history?
|
| 1:37 |
: Yes
|
| 1:37 |
: What’s the best noise?
|
| 1:37 |
: The shutting of the plane door when Angel Hernandez has been given a one-way ticket to Siberia
|
| 1:37 |
: What was Michaelangelo’s deal? And why was Raph so mad?
|
| 1:37 |
: Michelangelo had a meth problem and Raphael had to deal with him
|
| 1:37 |
: Taco Bell was the only restaurant to survive the franchise war.
|
| 1:38 |
: ALL RESTAURANTS ARE TACO BELL
|
| 1:38 |
: Do your taxes yourself or use a CPA/preparer?
|
| 1:38 |
: Myself
|
| 1:38 |
: Just had a second kid. Tired. Any advice?
|
| 1:38 |
: Sell it on ebay
|
| 1:38 |
: If a leprechaun falls asleep in the woods, but the pope’s not around to hear it, did David Ortiz ever really exist?
|
| 1:38 |
: Yes, I’m not Catholic
|
| 1:38 |
: Will the warriors break the record?
|
| 1:38 |
: yes
|
| 1:38 |
: Best Baltimore crab cake? Koko’s for me.
|
| 1:38 |
: THATS KOCO’S POSEUR
|
| 1:39 |
: Corner Stable has a surprisingly awesome crab cake
|
| 1:39 |
: Even if you mostly get ribs there
|
| 1:39 |
: The New Day/LON match was a shit show. Lets let the top group lose, then have a bunch of old retired guys beat up the winning team.
|
| 1:39 |
: A cistulli chat would probably be the worst ever
|
| 1:39 |
: Most evil at least
|
| 1:39 |
: What are your taco toppings of choice?
|
| 1:39 |
: onions and cilantro
|
| 1:40 |
: A 6 cost card that will ensure I have 3 zombie chows. AW YEAH.
|
| 1:40 |
: What’s the worst crime you ever committed and are you currently writing from jail or are you or on parole
|
| 1:40 |
: I murdered love
|
| 1:40 |
: Dan! Your chat was missed last week. Lightning round Question: Would you rather get a Mike Tyson face tattoo or punched by peak Mike Tyson in the face? You don’t get to pet is pet tiger either.
|
| 1:40 |
: punched I think
|
| 1:40 |
: It’ll hurt, but i’d eventually heal
|
| 1:40 |
: is this REALLY the Worst Chat Ever or is it just April? how do you project this chat going forward
|
| 1:40 |
: APRIL
|
| 1:40 |
: I misspell on the internet!!!!!
|
| 1:40 |
: Am I the worst wrestler ever or would that be Junkyard Dog?
|
| 1:40 |
: Giant Gonzalez
|
| 1:40 |
: Angelina’s crab cakes about 15 years ago
|
| 1:40 |
: My girlfriend wants to name our next dog “Mr. Harvey” after the Jon Lovitz team owner in “A League of their Own.” I think this name is lame but should I just accept that it’s at least a baseball reference and go with it?
|
| 1:41 |
: I have no success negotiating with women.
|
| 1:41 |
: At least the ones in my life.
|
| 1:41 |
: AND END
|
| 1:41 |
: Thanks for coming everybody!
|
| 1:41 |
: pretend its named after Matt Harvey and you have double the baseball reference
|
| 1:41 |
: good advice
|
| 1:41 |
: As the usual reminder, you can read my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on the Twitter
|
| 1:42 |
: And also in Murray Chass’s blog occasionally when he blogs his angry thoughts about being an unemployed blogger.
|
| 1:42 |
: End Communiqué.
|
Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.