Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 4/13/15

Dan Szymborski: Boom.

Comment From Mooking for Love
goes the dynamite

Comment From greg
Any thoughts on Jeurys Familia as the Mets’ new closer?

Dan Szymborski: He’s the logical option.

Comment From zack
Szymborksi, Is AROD back? How hilarious will it be if he has a good year?

Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t go that far quite yet. I’m still skeptical – he was steadily declining before 2013 already and he essentially had 1.8 lost years at an advanced age

Comment From JLew
RoS – Pomeranz or Volquez?

Dan Szymborski: Had a good start, but I’m not trusting Volquez unless I’m in a 75-team mixed league.

Comment From mtsw
Change my view: ODF is a game of chance, not skill, given that the players seem generally correct priced to their level of expected production at the major sites.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not big on ODF personally.

Comment From Daniel
The Royals are 6-0 and some national voices are retracting their preseason prognostications. Do you see anything in the Royals to change what you may have thought of them before the season started?

Dan Szymborski: Well, you move their projection forward a few games, but people get too excited.

Comment From Eric
My bench feels crowded with hitters, but Gose, Moustakas, Pompey all gotta be holds for now, right??

Dan Szymborski: Depends.

Comment From greg
Best player this season – Ackley, Yelich, or Bogaerts?

Dan Szymborski: Yelich

Comment From Neal Huntington
Hey Dan, true or false: Travis Snider will have a better career than Gregory Polanco.

Dan Szymborski: False

Comment From zurzles
so about ubaldo

Dan Szymborski: Hey, I had him on my bouncebacks list!

Comment From Eric
Small sample size be damned. Are Carson Smith and Roberto Osuna this year’s version of Wade Davis and Betances?

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From Bret
Hey Dan: 1) Is Aaron Sanchez going to make it as a starter? 2) Any tips for calming the nerves while waiting to hear back from a dream job interview? (Answering this question will provide temporary solace, at least.)

Dan Szymborski: 1) I think he will. 2) Booze? Honestly, I’ve never been on a job interview in my life.

Comment From greg
For the first week pitchers seem to have been attacking Joey Votto and were met with swift punishment. Do you see this continuing for very long or are the walks about to start piling up?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get his walks

Comment From mtsw
If I take a season-long ZiPS projection, divide it by the number of projected plate appearences, is that a good reflection of the average expected outcome out an individual plate appearence or is the system not designed that way (particularly for guys who have less than a full season of PAs projected)?

Dan Szymborski: Very roughly, but the thing is, the opposition changes quite drastically in a small sample

Comment From petey
does the boston media win the 2015 overreaction award for getting nervous about xander bogaerts starting 1 for 7?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of competition

Comment From nwdave
Adam Eaton, just wait it out? Other options are Snider, De Aza, Aoki

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From Forsyth
Does a pitchers value vary based on the disbursement of his runs allowed? For example, Buchholz allowed 0 runs in G1, and 9 ER in G2. Is that more valuable than allowing 5 in G1 and 4 in G2? Would think probability of winning both games scenario 2 is greater than scenario 1, but probability of winning 1 of 2 is greater in scenario 1 than 2.

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking it does, but there’s not a lot of evidence that’s an actual ability, apart from simply being a residue of the player’s other abilities (like a guy being HR prone)

Dan Szymborski: From a game theory standpoint, you want good pitchers to be consistent and awful pitchers to be as inconsistent as possible.

Comment From jocephus
oh danny boy

Dan Szymborski: Are the pipes calling? I can’t hear.

Comment From Damer
make AROD piss in a cup please

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure he will.

Comment From Damer
Travis Snider over/under 2 WAR in 2015?

Dan Szymborski: I’d say under from a rational basis, but the O’s always seem to have one role player a year that suddenly has a superstar year

Comment From Jack
Best chance of closing rest of the year – is this the right rank: Cecil, Grilli, Familia, Soria, Castro?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t look too horrible at first glance

Comment From mtsw
Why do teams make a public stink about trying to weasel out of guaranteed contracts (A-Rod, Josh Hamilton) when the way the CBA is written makes it essentially impossible? Just ineptitude or is there something that makes this make sense?

Dan Szymborski: Wishful thinking.

Dan Szymborski: MLB ownership has never needed an excuse to act like jerks in public

Comment From Iksrobmyzs Nad
Traded JD Martinez for Yelich. Please tell me I’m not bizarro?

Dan Szymborski: It’s OK in fantasy, but would obviously be terrific in real life or sim league

Comment From Schmesh
Rizzo/Quintana or Adrian Gonzales/Carrasco in 5×5?

Dan Szymborski: First safer, second more upside.

Comment From FreddieFreeHugz
Semien or Mookie as my 2B this week? A little worried about Mook’s rough start.

Dan Szymborski: Mookie. April.

Comment From Franklin
What are your thoughts on Joey Votto so far this year? I know it’s WAY early, but the HR and SB are very encouraging. Are we looking at MVP level Votto again if he remains healthy all season long?

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From Eric
Is Everth Cabrera ever a usefull starting SS again?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s OK, though Baltimore’s obviously a poor fit, both with Hardy and his skillset

Comment From Daniel B
Is Eric Young going to play consistently enough to warrant a roster spot in 12 team mixed?

Dan Szymborski: I’d need to be horribly desperate for SB to play him in 12 team mixed

Comment From Yllib
What about Vic Black isn’t he sort of the forgotten Met? Could well have the sexiest “closer profile” in that pen on May 1st if his velo is back

Dan Szymborski: He sounds more like a detective.

Comment From Mr. Fantasy
What do you think of Jonathan Schoop? Are the homers for real?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has him at what, 19 HR coming into the season? It’s not his power that’s been the question

Dan Szymborski: BTW, Lightning Round is back since there’s no big group chat afterwards, so I’m saving the off-topic questions for then

Comment From mtsw
Fun first series for Tigers fans. Which is more likely: Twins are 100 loss team or Tigers are a 100 win team?

Dan Szymborski: Twins 100 loss.

Comment From greg
Are there any early season numbers you look at when trying to decide if a player’s breakout could be “for real”?

Dan Szymborski: Depends – it’s not that clear cut.

Comment From Damer
Ubaldo .071 BABIP…please tell me sustainable

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From JLew
so when Wieters gets back, do you think he becomes a top 8 catcher?

Dan Szymborski: I would say no. He was only a top 8 catcher in 2011-2012 and given that defense is a significant part of his value, I’d be conservative until he proves otherwise

Comment From Mr. Fantasy
Is Micah Johnson not ready for the bigs? Should I be looking for a replacement on the wire?

Dan Szymborski: I do not think he is ready for the big – he was actually kinda lousy at AAA last year and isn’t a glove guy. And the White Sox aren’t all-in on him in 2015

Dan Szymborski: You better be in an incredibly deep league if you have him rostered right now, I feel

Comment From mtsw
You buying the rejuvenated, low-velocity Ubaldo Jimenez?

Dan Szymborski: To a degree that I think he can be league-average or a little better. The Orioles do have a solid infield defense.

Comment From RoRo
Give up an Gattis?

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From Sean
Did you like Bradley in his first start? That fastball looked way too easy.

Dan Szymborski: I totally missed his debut and haven’t watched it yet.

Comment From Boof
Whoa am I going crazy or does this chat not make any sense? The questions and answers are all over the place. It’s like performance art.

Dan Szymborski: Can’t control the order it seems – they’re in the right order on my screen. It’s Cover it Live being Cover it Live

Comment From greg
Any thoughts on Joe West continuing to do Joe West things on the field? I always groan when he’s working a game I’m watching; should MLB do anything or do they not view his act as a problem?

Dan Szymborski: We need robo umps as soon as possible.

Comment From Dr. Doom
When does Blake Swihart get called up?

Dan Szymborski: Not imminently – I dont’ think they pick up Sandy Leon otherwise

Dan Szymborski: An espresso this year, I expect

Comment From scott
WILIN ROSARIO is too good to sit on the bench. Why not trade him or play him more. Too talented to just sit. What do you think the rockies are going to do? Really enjoy your chats!

Dan Szymborski: He’s more valuable in fantasy than reality. The problem is that if you’re not willing to use him at catcher — and there’s a good argument that you shouldn’t — he doesn’t have much value

Dan Szymborski: Rosario only fits a team with very specific needs – a durable starting catcher, need for a real backup 1B/pinch-hitter, park with factors leaning towards inflating HRs rather than other stuff.

Dan Szymborski: Plus any team that trades him is going to run into the usual Rockies delusion of value of their players.

Comment From Casey Sadler
Has the sinker I left over the plate to Carlos Gomez landed yet?

Comment From Dr. Doom
Is David Wright back?

Dan Szymborski: April. His performance so far isn’t much new info

Comment From Sean
what month is it

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From Shawn
Thoughts on Jimmy Nelson? Didn’t get to see the start, but heard he looked very good. Could it be the start of something, or just…April?

Dan Szymborski: It was an excellent start. And April.

Comment From mtsw
Average age of MLB players is remarkably stable over the years, but ticked up half a year or so from 1999-2007. Think this is more attributable to PED use or to prevailing baseball wisdom at the time discounting defense in favor of plodding sluggers?

Dan Szymborski: That’s really hard to unravel given there are a lot of things going in baseball over those years.

Comment From JLew
Souza or Eaton?

Dan Szymborski: Eaton

Comment From Shawn
Do you think Alex Guerrero is here to stay? If so, how do you think he does offensively?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think his projection is far off. He’ll get his AB, though he’s still needing some events to happen to start

Comment From Dave
See any upside for Ike Davis this year? Any chance he has a productive season for the A’s?

Dan Szymborski: Some chance, but I’m bearish on him

Comment From Matt
Do the ZiPS projections adjust at all based on expected handedness of the opposing pitcher? For example if a player is projected 160 games what split is used to determine what percentage he’ll face LHP and what percentage RHP? Is there something else?

Dan Szymborski: I use their historical split percentages. I keep the vanilla ZiPS as clean as possible from knowledge of future usage.

Dan Szymborski: Because that usage would be introduced subjectively by me.

Comment From Sean
Are you buying Ender Inciarte? 122 wRC+ in the second half of last season, great at-bats this season, dominate spring – if you believe that is real with his defense, that’s a borderline all-star?

Dan Szymborski: I buy his defense, I rent hit offense.

Comment From Boof
What comes right after March?

Dan Szymborski: Smarch.

Comment From JLew
better add and stash – Moore or Ryu?

Dan Szymborski: Ryu

Comment From mtsw
Dumb question but: Any good place to see Pitchers’ stolen bases-allowed stat? Seems like an easy one but I’m having trouble finding it.

Dan Szymborski: BR has it

Comment From Michael
Brock Holt .714 BABIP…please tell me sustainable

Dan Szymborski: It’s sustainable. You just asked me to tell you that it was, not for me to believe it to be true.

Comment From greg
Think D’Arnaud can be a top 5 offensive catcher this season?

Dan Szymborski: Woul dneed an upside-type year.l

Comment From GARY
Since it’s apparently only April, should we just put this chat on hold and reconvene in June or so?

Dan Szymborski: There’s other stuff.

Comment From Iksrobmyzs Nad
Better chances of being a top 15 SP : Paxton, Fiers, or McCarthy?

Dan Szymborski: Paxton I think.

Comment From dlowe
Will the Padres be an above average offense this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think so, but not significantly so

Comment From Dave
Clay Buchholz… match-up play or never play?

Dan Szymborski: I’d avoid if I can

Comment From Franklin
If Uribe is out for an extended period of time, do you think Alex Guerrero can hold down that job? His bat is definitely MLB ready…

Dan Szymborski: Is there something new? I was under the impression that there were no real concerns about his hammy

Comment From Mike
When does Springer join the party?

Dan Szymborski: Is there a party?

Comment From Aaron
Tim Beckham has looked pretty good so far…any chance he ends up actually being the Rays SS of the future like he was originally thought to be?

Dan Szymborski: Not particularly

Comment From Roddy
Confidence in starting Daniel Norris against TB tmrw?

Dan Szymborski: Solid

Comment From Phillies113
The Phillies are at .500! They were one game over .500 as of yesterday morning! Sample sizes, schmample sizes, I’m gonna bask in this extremely fleeting moment of glory!

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From April
I agree with Dan.

Comment From Caleb W
Each year some pitchers seam to add a pitch (usually a cutter) and break out…seems to be one path for pitchers to take huge strides mid-career. (Last year Arrieta comes to mind.) Is there a profile of the kind of pitcher who can pull this off?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there’s a real set profile. You can’t paint-by-numbers this kind of stuff (or it’d be easy to project)

Comment From Randy
What is the name of the month of the year that comes between March and May?

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From April
ED-209, please.

Dan Szymborski: Robocop.

Dan Szymborski: And APril.

Comment From Sean
MLBTR still uses the old CIL

Dan Szymborski: I have no control over any of this.

Comment From iPuig
Refresh page, and it should be okay. It gets out of whack when you scroll through older comments while new ones are posted.

Comment From Art Vandelay
Apologies if you’ve addressed this before, but are you pro-DH?

Dan Szymborski: I’m fairly neutral. As a kid, we had HTS, WWOR, TBS, WGN, so I grew up watching AL and NL games.

Dan Szymborski: I do think from a practical standpoint, especially with daily interleague, that MLB will eventually go to all-DH.

Comment From mtsw
What happens with Billy Hamilton vs Lester today? Does Hamilton steal 2nd every time he gets on given that Lester never throws pickoff attempts?

Dan Szymborski: Should be fun

Comment From Phillies113
re: robo umps, knowing how MLB works, they’d probably model all the robo umps after Joe West, like SkyNet modeling Terminators after Arnold Schwarzenegger

Comment From Guest
What happened to the presidential thing?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t do it every week – depends how busy I am Monday morning.

Comment From tha prince
How deep of league are you comfortable starting Despaigne tomorrow?

Dan Szymborski: If hte league is deep enough to roster him, it’s probably deep enough to start him

Dan Szymborski: Especially because Arizona isn’t scary

Dan Szymborski: And the Padres are at home – a mediocre start in a neutral one looks like a good one in SD.

Comment From Jed
What’s up with Gattis? Just the transition from NL to AL and new pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From Franklin
Wilin Rosario is a horrible catcher.

Comment From Franklin
Are you a fan of Odubel Herrera? Think he can go .290 and steal 20 bases?

Dan Szymborski: He can but that’s a bit on the aggressive side.

Comment From RoboCop
Serve the public trust, protect the innocent, uphold the law.

Comment From Michael
Does Boston have any relievers on the 25-man roster that are worse than Mujica?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly Craig Breslow, but I don’t want to say that because he might invent some kind of laser weapon that can destroy me from space and then fill up my house with popcorn

Comment From Mooking for Love
__________ showers bring may flowers.

Dan Szymborski: Fart

Comment From zack
Carlos Martinez, successfully converted to a starter?

Dan Szymborski: Can you really count it as a conversion?

Comment From Franklin
Rosario should play for the Royals. He can spell Perez occasionally at C, spell Hosmer at 1B and also spell Morales at DH. Perfect fit.

Dan Szymborski: It’s one of the better fits.

Dan Szymborski: But again, when you deal with the Rockies, you also deal with the Rockies self-delusion.

Dan Szymborski: This is a team that had Gausman as the sticking point for a JDLR trade last year.

Comment From @RationalMLBfan
What do you think of the Juan Lagares contract, which in my mind recalls the Andrelton Simmons contract as an extension for a player who is average at best at offense, but exemplary on defense? Value is value, but defensive metrics are not as advanced, so there’s more uncertainty. Moreover, defensive value to a team is dependent on pitching staff (e.g. for a staff of strikeout and fly ball pitchers, OF defense is more of a priority relative to IF defense).

Dan Szymborski: There’s more uncertainty, but I think it’s being priced fairly

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, teams will pay for a guy that looks like he might be a +20 defender. But not the same value they’ll give to a guy who looks like he might be a +20 offensive…uh..er?

Comment From Drunk Before Noon
Worse place to live : Indiana or Indiana?

Dan Szymborski: Indiana doesn’t seem any worse than any other landlocked state with an amazing city.

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
What did you think of Greene and House’s starts? Any major change in opinion there?

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From Matt
It is April, but these plate discipline numbers begin to stabilize soon, right?

Dan Szymborski: They tend to, but we’re at really small sample sizes still.

Dan Szymborski: This isn’t just April, this is April One Week Into the SEason

Comment From Mooking for Love
12 tm mixed, Gennett is currently low man on my mid-infield totem poll. Time to replace him with Guerrero? Someone else?

Dan Szymborski: Depends who is available. Guerrero’s playign time is unlikely to be dependable enough to make him good in 12-team mixed

Comment From ryN
what kind of arm can Prince net me in an 11-team roto?

Dan Szymborski: As part of a hug from a concerned friend that you were the one to have him in 11-team roto.

Comment From mike wants wins
We can safely assume it isn’t “April” for “should I expect the Twins’ defense to be this bad all year”, correct?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but we thought that before April.

Comment From Brian
Speculative bench picks at this time: drop Gausman SP for Snider OF?

Dan Szymborski: Premature.

Comment From mtsw
Thoughts on the Ryan Webb trade? It’s sorta been revealed as the Orioles selling their competitive balance pick for the cost of the Dodgers eating Webb’s contract with various bags of balls trading sides concurrently. Seems especially strange given that Webb is an above-replacement level player not an unplayable catastrophe.

Dan Szymborski: I think the O’s over-evaluated the money.

Dan Szymborski: With the current system, those competitive balance picks are the rare place you can get an “extra’ real player

Comment From Guest
RA9-WAR or FIP-WAR?

Dan Szymborski: I prefer a mixed methodology. FIP-based, but with historical FIP above team used in regression model.

Comment From greg
Do you have any opinion on John Lester’s hesitance to throw pickoff attempts?

Dan Szymborski: Same as last week – I think the furor is kind of overrated.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not that he *can’t* pickoff players – he used to throw over there a lot.

Dan Szymborski: And it’s not like this is a new development for him

Comment From Drunk Before Noon
Is Kiermaier a sell high guy or a hold and enjoy the ride?

Dan Szymborski: I’d sell high if someone’s buying.

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
How many times will you say some version of “It’s just April” during this chat?

Dan Szymborski: Many

Comment From mtsw
Kevin Gausman can’t throw breaking balls and will end up as a bullpen arm. Jason Garcia will be in the 2016 Orioles rotation. Change my view.

Dan Szymborski: Punches?

Comment From Pat
How many starts does it take to before a projections are adjusted? For example, Garrett Richards last year.

Dan Szymborski: There’s no magic number.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not like the projection suddenly changes after X IP like a light switch.

Comment From JLew
thoughts on Nate Eovaldi for this year?

Dan Szymborski: Excellent thrower, mediocre pitcher.

Comment From Drunk Before Noon
Over/under on starts before Tanaka is done for the year? I’m calling 2.

Dan Szymborski: 8

Comment From L. Scott
With Mejia out and suspended 80 games, do you think Familia is just keeping the seat warm for Parnell?

Dan Szymborski: I think Familia will get a fair chance. Parnell doens’t have a long-enough history that they’ll roll out the red carpet for his return

Comment From John
I know it is only one week, but Desmond had made a bunch of errors and has been dropped in the lineup. Concerned ROS?

Dan Szymborski: April

Comment From Myomy
Mauer worth holding onto or Saunders a better play when healthy?

Dan Szymborski: Saunders. I don’t think there’s enough value to Mauer unless you are in a very generous league that still counts him as a catcher.

Dan Szymborski: And I imagine if you were in such a league, you wouldn’t be asking this

Comment From FlopMop
Players like Brock Holt and Scott van Slyke are being stowed as valuable bench players. Do you expect these players to be traded, or relegated to meaninglessness through mismanagement?

Dan Szymborski: Good role players that can start for awhile without killing you are extremely valuable to competing teams.

Comment From jocephus
kansas might be the worst state in the union, FWIW

Dan Szymborski: What’s the Matter With It?

Comment From FlopMop
People with money believe Simmons and Lagares are terrific fielders. It also seems like you should pay for fielding (if you pay at all) while a player is young. Fielding, like Fielder, ages badly.

Dan Szymborski: Fielding isn’t a curve, it’s a toboggan run.

Dan Szymborski: Did I spell that right? I say that a lot more than I write that

Comment From G Cole
Will I become the pitcher the Pirates wanted when they drafted me?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so

Comment From Hareeb al-Saq
Any idea if/when we’re going to start getting statcast data?

Dan Szymborski: No idea what MLB is doing.

Dan Szymborski: (and again, I’m saving off-topic questions until Lightning Round, so if you asked one, I’m not ignoring)

Comment From iPuig
Is there somewhere that has a list of how big the sample sizes have to be for different stats to stabilize?

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, there’s no binary stabilize, so a list like that has minimum value

Comment From Ullu Ka Patta
Can someone just go ahead and banish Uribe to the Planet Ogo so Guerrerro can get some starts?

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, he’s a fabulous defensive player

Comment From Michael
Re: Breslow laser, wouldn’t it be totally worth it just for the slight chance that it fails to destroy you and only fills your house with popcorn?

Dan Szymborski: That would be cool, I think.

Comment From FlopMop
Pomeranz or Ubaldo, lower FIP?

Dan Szymborski: Probably still Pomeranz

Comment From Guest
When will be the next year ZiPS DOESN’T project Trout to lead the league in WAR

Dan Szymborski: 2095.

Comment From Arizona
Any upside for Jake Lamb?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he has a high ceiling

Comment From Lou
Is now the time to buy low on Marte and Gattis?

Dan Szymborski: If you can.

Dan Szymborski: So I guess Yes.

Comment From Nomar
Henry Owens or Eduardo Rodriguez get first crack at rotation when the Sox need a replacement?

Dan Szymborski: I think Owens (and possibly Barnes) are in the pecking order before E-Rod.

Comment From RPT
How do you guys calculate your new first basemen Scoop stat?

Dan Szymborski: Ask ’em.

Comment From Alex
Do you like Semien or Alcantara better this year?

Dan Szymborski: Alcantara as I think he can get enough PA

Comment From Northsider
Aside from May 1st, when does “it’s April” no longer cut it?

Dan Szymborski: May 2nd?

Comment From Mike T
Chris Sale the best pitcher this year? First time I’ve owned him ever and I was blown away. I play in an AL only league.

Dan Szymborski: He’s terrific, but in the end I still think Kershaw is the best pticher in baseball

Comment From JT Realmuto
When I get called up, will I stick in the majors? Will Salty be my back up anytime soon?

Dan Szymborski: I think you would, but the Marlins are very conservative about this kind of thing

Dan Szymborski: See Hernandez vs. Gordon

Comment From FlopMop
Angels rotation: Richards great, Shoemaker good, Wilson, Heaney, and Weaver average-? Do you agree with this and do you think Newcombe contributes this year?

Dan Szymborski: Probably would put Wilson a little less when all is said and done

Dan Szymborski: For second part, no, whether you’re referring to Sean Newcomb, I think that’s aggressive, or Don Newcombe, who I believe is alive but must be like 90 or so.

Comment From Cain Marko
If you had a daughter and had to name her after a month of the year which would you choose?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno. Fructidor?

Comment From Rizzo
Is Iglehart the worst name in human history?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure there are worse

Dan Szymborski: When we were teenagers, we used to crank call Charlie Cheese.

Dan Szymborski: Back then, we had this thing called a telephone book that had names of residences in it. It was made on this substance we used to have called paper. I am old.

Dan Szymborski: Also, I knew someone with the last name Badcock and that’s obviously worse right there.

Comment From FlopMop
I was of the opinion that Alex Meyer was a good pitcher on the rise. Is the decision to send him down a contradiction of that view, or a play for service time?

Dan Szymborski: Possibly both.

Comment From Pat
Do you think Chris Heston can be useful as a back-end rotation piece? Good ballpark, decent enough rate stats… Do you like him as a replacement for Alvarez?

Dan Szymborski: Just a meh back-end guy.

Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think he has the stuff to be much more and he doesn’t seem to be one of those guys who can eke a ton out of mediocre stuff

Comment From Phillies113
Who was that reporter who always hung out with the Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles?

Dan Szymborski: O’Neill

Comment From Mike T
Should I be concerned about Steven Souza yet? Or is it just April?

Dan Szymborski: While it’s April, I thought he was being overrated before April

Comment From Matt
Hamilton and the MLBPA should be proactive and file a grievance against the Angels and MLB for pretty clearly violating the confidentiality clauses in the JDA after the arbitration, but also for leaking the story. And MLB ignoring their responsibility to investigate said leaks., likely to protect the Angels.

Dan Szymborski: The MLBPA needs to show more fight about stuff – they haven’t showed much in years

Dan Szymborski: Really, outside of filing arbitration cases, the MLBPA appears to be mostly spent as a force otherwise.

Comment From Jmaz
You’ve *never* been on a job interview? How the hell’d you pull that off?

Dan Szymborski: Before my current job, the only job I ever had where I wasn’t self-employed was when I was at Stebbins-Anderson, a hardware-housewars store in Towson when I was 16/17.

Dan Szymborski: My buddy Alan told them I knew Unix. That’s all they needed to know – the closing down of the store at night involved knowing Unix and with a part-time teenager that could operate Unix, none of the full-timers had to stay until 9 PM

Dan Szymborski: I did almost no work at that job, mostly wandered off and got dinner and talked baseball with the hardware guys. And kind of destructive – I destroyed a tiffany lamp, made a small trebuchet and a surprisingly sharp wood dagger, a modified staple gun that could launch staples all across the store, and a gallows where I had public hangings of the mannequin in the patio dpartment.

Dan Szymborski: *But* I knew Unix. So they didn’t really care because none of them had to stay until 9 PM.

Comment From FlopMop
Are Marlon Byrd and Carlos Beltran in sharp decline?

Dan Szymborski: They’re definitely in decline though Byrd has shown surprising resilience.

Comment From James, Bro
Adrian Gonzalez: over or under 20 HR the rest of the way?

Dan Szymborski: Over. even based on ZiPS I’d still have him at like 21 without any consideration of HR so far

Comment From Reginald Denton III
Andrew Cashner: stud or fringe guy?

Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t go stud, but he’s certainly better than fringe by a lot. Again, April

Comment From mtsw
Will the growing trend to stashing actual pitching prospects in AA and keeping AAA mostly for AAAA-level depth make it harder to evaluate hitters based on minor league stats? Do we have a good way of knowing whether the overall quality of pitching at a minor league level is changing?

Dan Szymborski: This trend is far, far overrated as an actual thing.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
Is it too much to ask of one of the MASN producers to tell Gary Thorne that Edwin Encarnacio’s name is not pronounced “On-Car-NAY-See-Own”?

Dan Szymborski: We still haven’t gotten every single playoff broadcaster to stop referring to Annabelle Sanchez.

Dan Szymborski: OK, time for the Lightning Round

Dan Szymborski: The Rules are that Any Question That Is Off-Topic (with the obvious exceptions) has to be answered so long as the timestamp is before 1;14. GO.

Comment From Iksrobmyzs Nad
Best Hearthsone class? I made a druid taunt deck out of commons that’s pretty tight.

Dan Szymborski: I think Druid is best right now but only if you have force of nature/savage roar.

Dan Szymborski: If not, Hunter is best.

Comment From Sean
What is your preferred method of Civ victory?

Dan Szymborski: Domination. I get aggressive once artillery gets in the mix.

Comment From Matt
Hey Dan – I need a new laptop. We mostly just use it for surfing and microsoft office. But I would like to try out Crusader Kings 2 on it, which you have mentioned in the past. Do you have a recommendation for a good, not-expensive laptop that would run that game seamlessly?

Dan Szymborski: CK2 shouldn’t need a big expensive laptop – just needs a CPU and there’s very little actual GPU element – you could probably run it on an old 8800 GTX from 7 or 8 years ago quite easily

Comment From Andy
Lightning round: What are your 3 favorite Twitch emotes?

Dan Szymborski: Kappa is a classic and I like Trump’s crying bear. Maybe PJ Salt for 3.

Comment From Art Vandelay
Ah, the telephone book, how else would a bunch of middle schoolers have been able to find Harold Penas?

Dan Szymborski: Haha, you’re old too

Comment From FlopMop
What’s wrong with Igleheart? That’s a bomber bike.

Comment From Sean
Dick Trickle (NASCAR driver)

Dan Szymborski: President of SABR for a long time was named Dick Beverage.

Comment From A cat
We would crankcall people named Whitehead and ask for Mr. Blackhead. When they said “This is the Whitehead residence” we would answer “Sorry wrong pimple”. It was funny in medieval times.

Dan Szymborski: We had a slowed down Sesame Street LP recorded on tape that we would play to crank call people

Dan Szymborski: It was Big Bird seeing the alphabet and thinking it was a long word. I’ll sing the song on the stream I’m doing after this

Comment From Phillies113
Level 5 is releasing the next fantasy life and prof Layton games as mobile only. Is this a sign of the end times?

Dan Szymborski: I hate mobile-only.

Comment From Guest
Why is extra innings in minor league a thing? Nobody wants them or cares.

Dan Szymborski: I do.

Comment From L. Scott
Do you use cruise control?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame
Do not touch Willie. Good advice!

Comment From Beer
Shiner Bock or Zeigenbock?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want the AB one! Shiner.

Comment From mtsw
Compare a baseball player to a Game of Thrones character

Dan Szymborski: Tim Collins, Tyrion Lannister

Comment From petey
what is your favorite bodily fluid

Dan Szymborski: Blood. It’s super useful, you can write your name in it easily, and it makes meat delicious

Comment From rubio
Best Tarantino movie

Dan Szymborski: Pulp Fiction

Comment From Curious
Favorite Book of All Time?

Dan Szymborski: Sanguo yanyi

Comment From FlopMop
Favorite rifle for TF2 sniper?

Dan Szymborski: None, Huntsman. Which I have named the Stochastic Processman (because people call it the Lucksman)

Comment From Sean
Where in the country have you seen the best lightning?

Dan Szymborski: Flying over Montana through storms coming back from my friend Mike’s wedding in 2004.

Dan Szymborski: It was a very stormy time and from Portland to Baltimore, the seatbelt light was on for the entire 8 hours

Dan Szymborski: Awful flight, I didn’t want to fly for motnhs after that. Had petechiae under my eyes afterwards.

Comment From TV Guy
Favorite TV Show of all time?

Dan Szymborski: Always Sunny

Comment From Sean
How do you manage your happiness in domination? I’ve been struggling with it in Civ V, even with puppet states.

Dan Szymborski: I’m obsessed with happiness modifiers. If I don’t have enough, I play scorched earth.

Comment From Cain Marko
The Calgary Flames’ organist plays tunes from Zelda OoT, it’s awesome

Comment From FlopMop
Iglehart, an amazing bike right? And Richard Cheese has got to be one of the worst names.

Dan Szymborski: Richard Cheese isn’t his real name – it’s a joke.

Dan Szymborski: And I don’t know enough about bikes.

Comment From James, Bro
Are there any websites that make fake M:TG cards? My buddy is getting married and we used to play when back in the day (7th grade). It’d be cool to make him a fake one or two as a gag gift. Kind of a random question!

Dan Szymborski: http://www.mtgcardmaker.com/

Comment From mtsw
Hillary Clinton: juggernaut or paper tiger? Give me odds on her losing the Dem nomination and odds on her losing the general if given nomination

Dan Szymborski: 90% she’s thet nominee, 50/50 in general

Comment From FlopMop
who makes a nice pair of stretch jeans?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, never wore a pair

Dan Szymborski: I think most of my jeans are wrangler

Comment From TV Guy 2
What do the numbers 4 8 15 16 23 42 mean?

Dan Szymborski: Lost

Comment From L. Scott
Commodore 64 owner?

Dan Szymborski: Used to be

Comment From Michael
Favourite Muppet?

Dan Szymborski: Uncle Deadly

Comment From James, Bro
favorite non baseball podcast?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t listen to enough.

Comment From Mooking for Love
You ever been to a turkish bathhouse?

Dan Szymborski: No, I don’t care for humidity.

Comment From FlopMop
tears are delicious!

Dan Szymborski: A little salty

Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame
Fart showers bring _______ flowers?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on what you plant.

Comment From Carlos
Any chance of a mobile friendly version of FG, or is there already one and I’m an idiot?

Dan Szymborski: Ask a Dave

Comment From Harry Porter and the Voldemalts
Greatest N64 game?

Dan Szymborski: Goldeneye

Comment From L. Scott
I hope you enjoyed Micro League Baseball as much as I did!

Dan Szymborski: Assuming you love it, yes.

Dan Szymborski: Thank you for joining me for another week! As always, you can find my work at ESPN.com, my projections and chats here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter or Steam.

Dan Szymborski: And I’m doing some hearthstone streaming right now at twitch.tv/zimsmash. I will sing the sesame street song we crank called people with