Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 5/14/18

Dan Szymborski: 2:00: A Time for Chats.

hscer: What do you make of Joseph Nicholas Gallo?

Dan Szymborski: A guy as good as you can be with only one real plus skill but not enough to actually be good

Evan: Best chicken wings in Cincinnati?

Dan Szymborski: Couldn’t say.

Dan Szymborski: I’m in Dayton more than Cincinnati, but in neither have I found really great wings yet.  Maybe it’s the local style

Steve: why are the giants

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s for KimKierkegaardashian Twitter.

Ichiro: Better chance to turn it around this season…Eduardo Nunez or Matt Carpenter? Also, was this a one time thing for Freddy Peralta or does he have some staying power? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: Carpenter.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think Peralta’s going to be this good.

Dan Szymborski: It’s shocking how many strikeouts he got just throwing a bunch of 91 mph fastballs

Jack Flaherty: Am I going to stick in the bigs this time or is Matheny flawed in his loyalty to semi-washed up vets?

Dan Szymborski: I think sooner or later you’ll have to stick

SureWhyNot: just packaged caleb smith and jose bautista for villar in 10 team NL only – how much of a genius am I?

Ray: Dylan Bundy’s start of the season was amazing, but the past few weeks, Sunday notwithstanding, have been troublesome. Should we continue to expect something closer to the beginning of his season, or the past few weeks?

Dan Szymborski: That’s tricky, I still can’t figure out exactly *what* went wrong.

Joey Votto: A bit of positive regression for the Redlegs over the past 6 games, or is there something to be optimistic about there? The starting pitching (especially Mahle, Castillo, and Romano) has looked really good and the bullpen has been excellent. Is there finally light at the end of the tunnel for Cincinnati?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS acutally projected the Reds to be slightly interesting if they could cobble together starting pitching

Dan Szymborski: Not playoff interesting, but showing real progress.

Dan Szymborski: It’s going to come down to just how much they can glue together

Jerry: Is it time for the NY Mets to rebuild? Are there still year(s) left to this team? How big is the window of contention?

Dan Szymborski: Mets are on the verge of getting stuck in the middle.  Especially in the division, they’re not as good as the Nationals now, but they’re also not going to be as good as the Phillies/Braves later (and maybe even know)

BK: Harper to the Braves, stop killing my dreams. Acuña, Pache, Harper. drool

Dan Szymborski: I just don’t think Liberty’s going to shell out $300 million.

Brood550: What’s your best comp for Franmil Reyes?  I’m thinking/hoping for the Rhys Hoskins/Cody Bellinger mold.

Dan Szymborski: That’s a big aggressive.  Reyes is a big dude, but he really wasn’t all *that* interesting before this year

Dan Szymborski: Though one could say that about the Hoskins emergence in the minors

Dan Szymborski: Hoskins and Bellinger both hit a lot more flyballs too

Put me in coach: Freddie Freeman NL MVP odds?

Dan Szymborski: I’d have to run the numbers, but he’s not clear-cut

Dan Szymborski: And a lot of writers still care about team, so it could easily be Pollock too

Dan Szymborski: (not that either wouldnt’ deserve it  if the season ended right now)

John : With Miguel Andujar struggling to consistently get on base and playing bad defense at 3rd, should the Yankees send him down and replace him with a combo of torreyes and drury until he gets it right? Should they do it anyway to get that extra year of service time?

Dan Szymborski: While it would be nice, I don’t think those are actually upgrades on him right now.  I don’t think hiks defense is this bad either

John : What should the mlb do to prevent service time manipulation? Should they do anything?

Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky because it’s something that has to be negotiated, whicih means you’ll have awkward bright lines.

Dan Szymborski: See the old Elias compensation for free agents, which was a negotiated fromula, which is why it was so shitty.

Dan Szymborski: You can reduce the threshold for players getting a whole year of service time, but then you’ll just see guys h eld out that long instead

Chuncey Wiggins: But seriously though…why on earth did the Braves trade Andrelton Simmons? Was he a clubhouse cancer? I just can’t understand why you trade a young generational defender with offensive upside for peanuts.

Dan Szymborski: Well, remember, he didn’t appear to be progressing offensively and defense peaks early.

Dan Szymborski: They were thinking ahead to Albies and though cashing in on Simmons was a good idea.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that it was actually a good idea to do this, but that’s about what the reasoning is.

john j: ZIPS was not unkind to Franmil Reyes (1.1 WAR, 22 HR’s).

Dan Szymborski: No

BK: wow, Mookie’s ROS projections are pretty crazy

cistullian society of europe: Tell us of the silver lining to working with the dark lord.

Dan Szymborski: Hanging out with Cistuilli.

Joe: Is Christin Stewart starting to solidify himself as a legitimate prospect

Dan Szymborski: The power boost combined with the improvement in his strikeout rate while advancing a level is usually encouraging

Chuncey Wiggins: Do you think Bauer has a point about sticky substances increasing spin? If batters could “semi-illegally” coat their bats with a more bouncey substance that increased exit velocity, wouldn’t Manfred be drawn and quartered to do something about it?

Dan Szymborski: I want to stay out of this bowl of matzoh!

Webster: Rhys Hoskins has five HR’s (one more than Kevin Pillar), and 47 K’s. He was a consensus top 20 pick — is this just a very slow start or something worse?

Dan Szymborski: He’s got like a 140 OPS+, that’s some serious greed

Dan Szymborski: Now, he’s dropped off in exit velocity, which is worrisome

Dan Szymborski: But remember, he took a huge step forward last year, pitchers aren’t going to pitch him the same, I suspect there’s an adjustment period

Luis Castillo: Am I back?

Dan Szymborski: I sure hope so

James: Are you buying into Franchy Cordero’s improved plate discipline?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Webster: Matt Davidson: consistent 30+ homer guy or flash in the pan?

Dan Szymborski: There’s likely some improvement there simply because he’s been a lot more selective.

Dan Szymborski: But you can be b oth!  He hit 26 homers last year w/o qualifying for the batting titles.  You can hit 35 homers a year and be terrible

Dan Szymborski: But most important, Davidson’s earned the opportunity.

Russ: Schwarber has improved his k-rate big time, upped his BB-rate, and maintained a strong ISO. is this development real? striking out only 23% of the time is big for him, no? also he’s currently rated positively on defense according to FG, but who knows.

Dan Szymborski: I’m very optimistic

PD: Is the chat invalidated if we ask Dan Szymborski two questions on May 14, 2018?

Dan Szymborski: I DONT UNDERSTAND THE JOKE

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Back when you created ZIPS in Excel, what functions do you think you used the most? What is the most esoteric function that you use that adds value to the final product?

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, sum?

Dan Szymborski: Now, probably my custom mahalanobis distance

Chuncey Wiggins: Is there a limit to how close a fielder can stand to a batter? I’ve always wondered if a bunch of players crowded immediately infront of the batters box so that they would sacrifice their health and lives to knock down a batted ball with their bruised and battered bodies was legal…and if this a potentially viable strategy that teams could employ with their more deranged or terminally ill players.

Dan Szymborski: Technically, you can get damn close, but there’s a limit; if they interfere with the swing they’ll get dinged for interference.

Dan Szymborski: If you made an impenetrable wall of infielders

Dan Szymborski: There’s still enough room to make automatic hit texas leaguers

Bort: Dan Vogelbach is absolutely crushing it in Tacoma (>1.200 OPS) but there’s no room for him on the big league roster. Is there a trade the Mariners can make here?

Dan Szymborski: The roster design is a bit awkward right now, which is what makes it hard

Dan Szymborski: Healy’s been hitting since he returned

Dan Szymborski: And it’s hard to find a roster spot these days for a 1B only guy

Dan Szymborski: especially when they want to limit Nelson Cruz in the field

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s more likely that Vogelbach is the one traded

Wes: Are we over-simplifying the effect of the massive shifts on Joey Gallo? Everybody seems to think it is so simple for him to bunt opposite but he has only bunted twice as a major leguer, once successfully. He is pulling at a 35.5% this season, why would we not want him to take a real swing?

Dan Szymborski: Everything is oversimplified.  I think the problem with Gallo is that he’s just not that good overall, shifts or not.

Jackson C: Mike Trout’s ridiculously excellent start to the season has been downplayed because we already know he’s amazing and overshadowed by Mookie Betts’s slightly more ridiculously excellent start. Nonetheless, Trout is absolutely raking and it seems like no one is talking about it.

Dan Szymborski: Trout suffers from being so amazing; he makes being on an MVP level almost mundane.

Zip-a-dee-doo-da: What sort of haul would the Orioles receive in return for Machado/Gausman/Givens in this highly unlikely blockbuster?

Dan Szymborski: Knowing the O’s, they would insist on ready for majors players because they have a deluded notion that they can just retool.

Coach K: Is Russell of Cubs, becoming a spare part that is worth more say to Dodgers than to Cubs? If so what other clubs would view Russell as an upgrade?

Dan Szymborski: No

ATL: Thoughts on Franmil Reyes and interpreting breakouts in the PCL?

Dan Szymborski: Grain of salt

Dan Szymborski: Why are there like 150 Franmil Reyes questions?

John: How concerned are you that Samardzija won’t turn it around?

Dan Szymborski: Increasingly so

Kiermier’s Ingrown Toenail: What are the Padres doing with their outfield?. Jankowski up last week..now mountain man Reyes arrives and Renfroe going out on rehab..Margot not hitting .200.  What the heck happens here?

Dan Szymborski: The Padres are making it up as they go along

Matt: Thoughts on Freddy Peralta? Is he going to save my fantasy season?

Dan Szymborski: No savior

Matt: Logically, if you were to slice a burrito in half the long way, would you end up with two tacos?

Dan Szymborski: I guess technically

ThickTanPretzel: Darvish back tomorrow. Care to make a prediction for his next month or so?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still cautiously optimistic, but I seem to be the only one.

Rusty Dusty: Since UZR has been calculated Red Sox right fielders have been by far the best at their position and Red Sox left fielders have been by far the worst at their position. This has to do with the amount of range their players have to move.

Do the Red Sox right fielder get an advantage based on UZR and their left fielder a disadvantage?

Dan Szymborski: The thing about UZR is that it actually has a built in Fenway adjustment that’s supposed to mitigate the issue

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t dug further into the issue

Andy: How many ABs does Ian Desmond get this year before they pull the plug? They can’t survive 300+ ABs from him, can they?

Dan Szymborski: You underestimate Colorado’s penchant for peak stupid.

Dan Szymborski: We’re not 150 PA into Fricking Awful Desmond, we’re over 500 PA now.

Dan Szymborski: If you told the front office that the burritos they paid $8 each for each contain poison, they’d eat them anyway so as not to lose $8 somehow.

Zip-a-dee-doo-da: Have any favorite malapropisms?

Dan Szymborski: I have a habit of using “Now the upper hand is on the other foot!” from Hot Shots! Part Deux.

Radiohix: What type of return could the Orioles expect if Britton is back healthy?

Dan Szymborski: Surprisingly light, I think, given the risk.

Dan Szymborski: He’d have to get back soon and *stay* healthy

Zip-a-dee-doo-da: Please rank: True Detective, Samurai Jack, Twin Peaks, Rick and Morty, Black Mirror

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen these all

Dan Dan the Cheerleading Man: Hey Dan, I have a bet with a friend that he will have to eat a Chipotle Soffritas burrito if Manchado re-signs with the Orioles, what do you think the odds of this happening are? Also, Chipotle vs. Qdoba who wins?

Dan Szymborski: <5%.  Qdoba I guess, but I don’t really care for either

The Joey Bats Experiment: How long do we continue watching this slow motion (no pun intended) train wreck? Sub .600 OPS and awful 3B fielding metrics while Riley is doing his best Acuna impersonation as the youngest hitter in AAA (3 HR, 8 RBI yesterday).

Dan Szymborski: The Braves are promoting Riley as if they want him to push forward sooner rather than later

Dan Szymborski: AA’s not afraid of doing it if it feels the best

Bo: 1/4 of the way through the season… At what point can we start believing that teams like the Braves aren’t going away?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the team.  But the Braves and Phillies aren’t going away

Dan Szymborski: They may regress a little, but these teams are in the landing patterns now from their rebuild flights.

Dan Szymborski: There’s all upside going forward

LosDoyers: Thoughts on Major Leaguers in 2020 Tokyo?
i think they really should allow it – would love to see Korean ballplayers there (and also a chance for the youngsters to get military exemption as a medal in the olympics = military exemption).

I went to the Korea vs. Japan WBC at Dodger Stadium in ’09 – the atmosphere there was simply amazing, like a World Cup Game (I mean, the rivalry between the two countries make BoSox-Yankees rivalry pale in comparison)

Dan Szymborski: I think baseball should do as much of this as possible.  The more baseball accepts its a global game, the better

connor: Why aren’t the Rockies promoting Tom Murphy?  9 HRs and the existing ML catchers are batting around .180.

Dan Szymborski: I need to make an Incompetent Rockies Copypasta

connor: please ignore questions about food and stick to baseball.

Dan Szymborski: A little levity breadens the loaf.

Dan Dan the Cheerleading Man: Should the Reds be the favorite to win the NL West now after sweeping the Dodgers?

Dan Szymborski: BRING BACK OLD DIVISIONS!

Jeremy: Is Scotter Gennett good?

Dan Szymborski: OK, bt nothing special.

Ant: Thoughts on Tebow’s .770 OPS in AA?

Dan Szymborski: Strikeouteriffic

Dan Szymborski: He’

Dan Szymborski: He’s got like a .450 BABIP

Dan Szymborski: which is kinda funny

Dan Szymborski: Since it kinda matches his completion rate in football too

Dan Szymborski: Maybe if he switches to basketball, he can hit 45% of threes!

Dan Szymborski: Or win the lottery 45% of the time.

Dan Szymborski: Which is a damn good ROI

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the thing about Tebow.  He’s not remotely a prospect of course, but he’s done *really* well for a guy who played in high school a long time ago.

Dan Szymborski: I think you can respect that even while acknowledging how limited he is as a baseball player

Rob Osuna: Am I likely to pitch again this season, or am I waiting for my heinous actions to come out first, then we’ll see?

Dan Szymborski: I think we have to see how the case goes

Nathan: Also the Mariners are in the same position that you laid out for the Mets

Dan Szymborski: Pretty much

Bo: What’s a good comp for Acuna’s ceiling? Andruw Jones?

Dan Szymborski: Define ceiling.   90th?  99th?  Guys like Acuña don’t have ceiling unless you’re talking say, things they have a 20% chance of doing

Matt: Fun fact: Franmil Reyes as a 40% HR/FB rate this year…historically hovers around 20%. Count me out.

isaac: lomo called shohei the best player in the world… agree/disagree? why

Dan Szymborski: Not the best player in the world, but the most fascinating in the world.

Dan Szymborski: If you made everybody pitch and hit, he would very likely be the best in the world

CamdenWarehouse: Making good wings is not hard.  Find some recipes for Buffalo sauce and you’ll beat almost every restaurant.

Dan Szymborski: When you get out from the east coast, I’ve found lots of places think that you bread Buffalo wings.

GLove: Best wings in Cincy are at a place called The Lucky Dog Grille in Mason. FYI.

Dan Szymborski: Baked wings shouldn’t count, but South Park Tavern in Dayton does them in the pizza ovens and they have this amazing hot garlic sauce theat they’ll put on the pizza instead of the normal stuff

Jose Altuve : Kyle Schwarber had as many stolen bases yesterday as I have all year. So much for me challenging Trout for top overall draft pick. Sorry for wrecking all your fantasy season’s!

Bo: Any big names moved in the next 6-8 weeks? I feel like the addition of a 2nd WC has really muted the deadline trade excitement.

Dan Szymborski: Big names *should* move early with baseball so bifurcated, but I don’t think we’ll have a big one until the back of the 8 weeks.

isaac: harvey cy young 2019 just because he left the horrible terrible mets

Brood550: Who’s leading your AL Cy Young race right now?

Dan Szymborski: If the season ended I was voting now, I think Severino would get the nod by a hair.

Dan Szymborski: Though I vote in NL awards since I’m in the Cincinnati BBWAA chapter.

Dan Szymborski: Though theoretically, they could ask me to vote in an AL race if a chapter didn’t have enough guys, but usually they use the at-large people for that

CamdenWarehouse: Has an MVP ever been a mid season trade? asking for a friend

Dan Szymborski: Unless I’m mistaken, no.  Cy Young there’s Sutcliffe in ’84, but you probably already knew that

Mark: Has Manaea really broken out, statcast seems to say there is huge regression coming and so do his peripherals.

Dan Szymborski: I feel there will be some regression, though not a disastrous amount.

Dan Szymborski: I still need to figure out why he was called Seth for a couple of years and then that abruptly stopped.

isaac: how does the supreme court’s ruling on sports betting affect ther MLB

Dan Szymborski: Well, you’ll see MLB betting.  There’s not so much MLB can do but try to cooperate enough to be able to influence

George: Who do you think is the most unlucky player in the MLB right now?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t Fowler still have like a .140 BABIP?

Dan Szymborski: I think a mannequin holding a bat would do better than .140

Hannah Hochevar: And I’m curious about Tanner Scott?

Dan Szymborski: Bifurcation central! Bifurcation central!  Bimogrification centeral!  Can you feel it?  I hoep you’re satisfied with the projections, but if you ain’t, blame the computer on the other side of my desk.

Matt: If we just banned players from getting paid for their services, then we wouldn’t even have this service time manipulation issue. #JustSayin

Hannah Hochevar: But the O’s should still sell everyone, right?

Dan Szymborski: yeah

Hannah Hochevar: Do the M’s want Schoop?

Dan Szymborski: They oughyt to

Adam: Despite a 64 wRC+, Amed Rosario has improved his ability to hit a baseball (higher exit velo, launch angle, xwOBA compared to his 2017 numbers). He’s also improved his plate discipline (better BB%, K%, chase rate). How much does all of this mean if he’s still not producing much tangible offense? Am I fool for still having hope in him?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still a believer too, but he hasn’t made as much progress in the majors as I hoped

magicarpenter: Have you ever looked, or are aware of research, into the predictive power of baseball savant’s xStats?

Dan Szymborski: I am unware of research.  I do my own stuff, which I know better

CamdenWarehouse: Hoskins with a whole half season of experience was a consensus top 20?  Seems like a bad ida

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that was aggressive

Pei: I’ve read in a previous klaw chat that Keith believes learning to code is the most feasible way to get into working in baseball, and in a chat last week, Eric said that he thinks learning Spanish is the more useful skill and that coding will not set one apart in about five years. What do you think about this topic?

Dan Szymborski: Learn spanish coding.

Dan Szymborski: Both are useful really

Dan Szymborski: Just absorb as much as you can

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: Also, Bartolo Colon makes gum sandwiches between innings: https://mediadownloads.mlb.com/mlbam/mp4/2018/05/09/2025056183/1525898…

Adrian Gonzalez: Can I still play baseball or no

Dan Szymborski: Sorta, just not well.

Can’t read good: Ozzie Albies HR on 1st pitch of game!

Zip-a-dee-doo-da: Dude I love Albies. Leadoff HR off Q

Bo: Ozzie Albies just hit his 13th. Real deal or what?

Dan Szymborski: Real

Alby: Are the Dodgers in real trouble?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: I wrote about this!

Proswagonist: Honey Bunches of Oats is my go to cereal thanks to you. How much is Post paying you?

Dan Szymborski: GET THE ALMONDS

Dan Szymborski: There’s literally no disadvantage of getting the almonds

JimR: Justin Turner will be the ____ best 3rd base the ROY.

Dan Szymborski: bes t3rd base the roy?

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: How fun will it be when 80-82 Cleveland gets home field advantage in the ALDS against the 100-62 Red Sox?

Dan Szymborski: I live for salt.

Dan Szymborski: Indians will be better than 8-82

Dan Szymborski: Worse contract: Pujols or Chris Davis

Dan Szymborski: Pujols slightly, but not for long

Put me in coach: I’m not sure that Sean Newcomb was “peanuts” in that Simmons trade. Seems like it’s going to work out well for both teams.

The Decadent Moose: Any signs of life for the Orioles?  ROS prognostications: 70 wins? 75?  Alex Cobb rebound?

Dan Szymborski: Under now

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Do you ever think that in the Night Court expanded universe, Dan Fielding is attorney general?

Dan Szymborski: In the Night Courtiverse, Mel Tormé is the emperor and has abolished all laws.  All feuds are now settled in the VelvetDome.

Cream: Is Chris Davis cooked? Is that contract top 3 worst?

Dan Szymborski: Yes and yes

Can’t read good: If they Rockies front office cut that poison burrito in half, would they have 2 poison tacos?

Dan Szymborski: IN a sense

CamdenWarehouse: What do you mean it’s hard to find a roster spot for a 1b only guy?  Baltimore is carrying Davis, Trumbo, Mancini, Alvarez and Valencia

Dan Szymborski: Hard to do so in a non-idiot fashion

Machado: I will be playing for _________ before the season is over

Dan Szymborski: a baseball team

CamdenWarehouse: please ignore questions about baseball and stick to things to which one can apply Old Bay

Kiermier’s Ingrown Toenail: Eno wouldn’t have a job without sandwich questions filling in the hour. 🙂

Rockies Fans: Should we kill ourselves?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Why don’t they make wings out of the whole chicken?

Dan Szymborski: Well, they do.  The whole boneless wings thing.

CamdenWarehouse: I make both breaded and not breaded depending completely on my mood

Dan Szymborski: Breaded is fine, but it’s not Buffalo wings.

John: What will trout get as an fa

Dan Szymborski: Enough to destroy the US economy

CamdenWarehouse: You have to share your BBWAA Chapter with C. Trent?

Dan Szymborski: Trent is the best.

Dan Szymborski: It’s him and Passan that got me off of my ass to ask for membership, years after I probably should have

Dan Szymborski: I was a bit of a wuss about the whole thing; I was worried if I was turned down I’d be really depressed about it.

Eminor3rd: Please ignore connor and do whatever you please.

Tyler: Dan, what is your take on the Ian Desmond situation?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have enough money to fill up the gas needed for the ROFLcopters

Matt: Dan, I’m allergic to almonds. But, upon your advice, I will get the almonds. To which address should I be sending my lawsuit?

Dan Szymborski: Carson Cistulli, United States Penitentiary, Leavenworth, 1300 Metropolitan Ave, Leavenworth, KS 66048

Kiner’s Disembodied Hands: What if I don’t like almonds?

Dan Szymborski: You’ll get almonds and you’ll like them.

Andy: Man. You made me more sad about Ian Desmond. Between him, Cargo, Parra and the catcher spot, that’s a whole lotta dead weight in the lineup. Hard to imagine how a contention window could be more bungled.

PS: I still can’t get used to Luis Castillo not being a speedy second baseman.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Suicide is a permanent solution to temporary problems. If you need help, please call the National Suicide Prevention Hotline: 1-800-273-8255

Dan Szymborski: Good to know in all the jokes

Matt: I don’t make chicken wings. This is America, and I pay someone else to do it for me.

Kiermier’s Ingrown Toenail: Is Carson ok with “Food Chat with Dan”?

Dan Szymborski: Ratings!

Dan Szymborski: If he is, we’ll have to change things up.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to head out for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone.  As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: