Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/18/18

2:01
Dan Szymborski: And awaaaay we go!

2:02
John: Are the Yankees the worst team at breaking ball recognition?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: Don’t have the hit/miss numbers in front o fme (I’m outside), but last I checked, the Yankees were actually in the top part of the league in curves overall

2:03
Bo: What would it take from the Braves to get Machado? Worth it for a run this year, or should they wait?

2:03
Dan Szymborski: The O’s would probably insist on one of the young pitchers and probably Riley.

2:03
Dan Szymborski: It’s tricky, I think this is a situation where it pays the Braves to postpone as long as possible any kind of decision,.

2:04
Dan Szymborski: If they’re going to give up a significant part of the future, they really want to make sure that they’re not so far up or down that it’s worth it

2:04
Matt: Baseball announcers have a weird way of using outdated idioms – such as “Wow, Torres really hot-dogged that play.” Is it time to update the idioms? For example: “Wow, Torres really sandwiched that play.”

2:04
Dan Szymborski: Only if there’s a roast beef or salami sandwich idiom currently used.

2:04
Nick: How locked up is the AL playoff picture? Mariners have the second WC spot by 8 games vs the reeling Angels.

2:05
Dan Szymborski: The advantage of incumbency is huge.  I don’t think the Mariners are this good and winning a lot of one-run games isn’t really a sustainable model

2:05
Dan Szymborski: BUt having a large lead is a preetty big deal

2:05
Dan Szymborski: I rather have an 8 game lead and be a .500 team than be tied and be a .560 team

2:05
Nick: Percent chance the Padres finally trade Brad Hand?

2:05
Dan Szymborski: 30

2:06
Matt: Slugging Percentage is misnamed, and is not a true percentage. Fight me.

2:07
Dan Szymborski: Well, it’s a percentage of the value of someone hitting a single every at bat!

2:08
PG: Cristian Javier is putting up silly numbers, but is there a legitimate pitching prospect there?

2:08
Dan Szymborski: Anytime a guy strikes out 14 batters a game, you have to at least take him seriously

2:09
Dan Szymborski: But he’s not a huge stuff guy, unless I’m confusing him with someone else

2:09
Bo: Is Devers a buy-low candidate, or would the Sox not really consider moving him?

2:09
Dan Szymborski: They’re not moving him except for a package that would be unwise to trade for Dever

2:09
Dan Szymborski: s\

2:09
Guest: What could the Reds get back in return for Iglesias and Hughes? Would Robles be reasonable for Iglesias?

2:09
Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think the Nats do that.  A great closer is still just a closer

2:09
Dan Szymborski: And he’s not prime Mo or 2017 Kenley

2:10
Poised: Is Trevor Story good now?

2:10
Dan Szymborski: He was always going to better than last year I think

2:10
Dan Szymborski: He’s not a star, but he’s a good player

2:10
Dan Szymborski: Which is a big deal on a team that doesn’t know the difference between a just-good player and replacement level

2:11
Amaury Telemaco: Dan, I contend that most Mexican dishes are, in fact, the same thing. Same ingredients, just different structure. Should we consider them independent of one another?

2:11
Dan Szymborski: I’m no expert on the cuisine, but there are sizable differences, especially when you’re in the more fine dining type of MExican

2:11
Dan Szymborski: What we experience in the US frequently is the equivalent of street food, which will tend to share a fairly familiar base of ingredients.

2:12
Kiermaier’s Acid Reflux: Hi Dan.   Are you buying into the new look Jason Heyward? He looks decent at the plate now. Same as Grichuk, he has had a few good games at the plate as well.
Are you a condiment snob?  Ketchup (catsup) only on a burger and mustard only on a hot dog or are you condiment agnostic…let condiment chaos reign.

2:12
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been burned too much by Heyward in recent years!

2:12
Dan Szymborski: Ketchup = thums bdown

2:12
Wil: How do the Braves get their two proto-typical leadoff men (Inciarte and Albies) back in a groove? Or is Markakis the better option?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Markakis leadoff isn’t really a bad idea at all

2:13
Dan Szymborski: Even when he’s been mediocre, his OBP has been OK

2:13
Wes: In a suspended game, what would happen if the player was traded to the oposite team before start and completion of the game? Could a player technically play for both teams in one game?

2:13
Dan Szymborski: THey play on the new team

2:13
Dan Szymborski: I’ve had this argument that everything should be restored to the status of the suspended game

2:14
Dan Szymborski: “Sorry guy, but that UCL is going to have to come back out for this game tonight”

2:14
greg: Cat update please.

2:14
Dan Szymborski: Galileo wants dinner.  The little one just chased Mercutio somewhere

2:14
Will Graham : Muncy OPS the rest of the year, O/U 850?

2:15
Dan Szymborski: Probably the under

2:15
earl’s tears: Hi Dan:  Where do the Orioles go from here?  Can they get anything decent for Machado, Brach, and Jones?  Camden Depot says the organization is suffering from three people making the important decisions with Brady Anderson having the ear of Angelos.  Is that true?  Thanks!

2:15
Dan Szymborski: They’ll get decent prospects for Machado.  But unless the absolutely perfect situation comes around, they’re not getting the massive package that I believe they still think they’ll get.

2:15
Dan Szymborski: The O’s are stuck in a different generation.  It’s not without reason that teams are trying to trade guys at the deadline who have at least another year

2:16
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: My girlfriend had never seen the Office (US) and we are now on the penultimate episode. Allow me to state, publicly, that Jim and Pam are absolutely awful human beings.

2:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t remember the specifics

2:16
Dan Szymborski: Of what they did in that epsiode

2:16
Bo: Making my first trip to AT&T Park in a few weeks… Any advice on food, best seats, must-sees, etc?

2:17
Dan Szymborski: I’ve got east coast bias, mainly because I hate flying that long

2:17
Dan Szymborski: I’ve only been there once, so I don’t have good SF recommendations

2:17
Matt: Have you ever stopped to think that maybe people such as John Smoltz’s general distrust of analytics is rooted in the fact that they’ve collectively been working on the discovery of the root of the disconnect between quantum mechanics and the theory of relativity, and thus discovered a general flaw in our current understanding of *what* mathematics even is and how it works?

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Smoltz does look a bit like General Zod, so maybe he’s up to something

2:17
Matt: “Away we go” Dan? We just got here.

2:17
Dan Szymborski: Awaaaaay we go

2:18
Dbo: Does Mexico beating Germany in the World Cup settle the question of which is better: a Chorizo or a Bratwurst?

2:18
Dan Szymborski: We live in an open society with room for sausages of all casings and creeds.

2:18
lithuanian pizza: Hi Dan:  what happens to the O’s if Brady Anderson becomes the next GM?  From what I understand, he cares very little about analytics.  Thx.

2:18
Dan Szymborski: The O’s may become an unwatchable, hopeless team!  Oh, wait…

2:18
Ryan: Is Lewis Brinson still a viable 60 grade player given the struggles this year (and last)? Hard to find a silver lining with his numbers right now…

2:18
Dan Szymborski: I’m still cautiously optimistic, but he has been a mess in the majors for some reason

2:19
Dan Szymborski: And trust me, if I knew how to fix that, even thsoe cheapskates would give me a million dollars righ tnow

2:19
David: If the O’s move Britton, does he close for his new team?

2:19
Dan Szymborski: Yeah.  I think the O’s QO Britton otherwise, so if he’s traded, it’ll be for more than a team woudl give for a non-closer

2:19
Dan Szymborski: I think

2:19
Dbo: Does the Cardinals almost getting swept by the cubs instill some urgency to improve their roster

2:19
Dan Szymborski: It’s a cautious organization

2:20
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Thinking about Matt’s question really had me in a pickle…I mean, in a Cuban sandoozle.

2:20
Eric Thames : What are the Brewers going to do with me and this log jam at the corners? The rich get richer, but surely they could get some help in some other areas with a move…

2:20
Dan Szymborski: I think they’re waiting to see what the most crucial need is as we get towards the deadline.

2:20
Dan Szymborski: The Brewers would still not prefer to trade prospects and they’re not signing anyone for $200 million anytime soon, so they’re picking their points.

2:22
ryan: My reference for a machado package is the Martinez deal from last year. Given that, it seems that even while machado is a more valuable player, a package that included say, kolby allard, would be an overpay already. Am I way off-base?

2:22
Dan Szymborski: I can see Allard ONLY.  Not as part of a package.

2:22
Dan Szymborski: I think JD Martinez as fair.  Machado better, but you also got Martinez a little longer

2:22
Kiermaier’s Gastroenterologist: More pedantic sandwich talk…does Carson approve?

2:23
Dan Szymborski: He uses orphan blood as a condiment I hear

2:23
Jim : Bundy turned a corner?

2:23
Dan Szymborski: It always looks like that.  Then he goes out and allows 18 runs in 2 starts or something

2:23
brood550: Is it more likely Donaldson gets traded or that the Jays hit him with a QO to hopefully get a pick out of him?

2:23
Dan Szymborski: It’s setting up, Donaldson injury/performance that I think it’s  QO rather than a trade

2:23
Do The Chop: is Freddie Freeman the best hitter in the NL?

2:24
Dan Szymborski: I think if you start now and push out to the future, I’d take Harper, but Freeman has a very very strong case

2:24
mike sixel: how close to Cleveland would you have to be not to sell at the deadline if you were the Twins?

2:24
Dan Szymborski: 3>

2:24
Dan Szymborski: 3?

2:24
Brood550: Why isn’t Kyle Tucker up yet?

2:24
Dan Szymborski: In today’s piece over at ESPN I actually wrote about the Astros and TUcker!

2:24
Brood550: Will the Jays keep all their youngsters that are raking in the minors in the minors for the season for control?

2:25
Dan Szymborski: It’s starting to look that way

2:25
Dbo: I just watched the ump argument after utley slid into tejada in 2015. The term “our a** in the jackpot” should be adopted as standard ump terminology

2:26
Chili Beans Davis: Who would be your choice to take over as GM/head baseball guy for the O’s?

2:26
Dan Szymborski: Ruben Amaro Jr.  SInce nothing will change under Angelos or the Angelos sons, might as well go for peak comedyh

2:27
TJB: Is the Rockies bullpen actually this bad? And if not, how long can it continue to be this bad?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be fine

2:27
Dan Szymborski: The Rockies are better than their record, but thanks to the awful front office/ownership, worse than their developed talent

2:27
Bo: Could the Braves make a move for Machado now, and if they fall back as the deadline approaches consider moving him again?

2:27
Dan Szymborski: Theoretically possible

2:27
Brood550: What do the Astros do with their excess of Starting pitching?  Peacock and McHugh have both been solid if not above average starters.

2:29
Dan Szymborski: I think they hang onto what they have for now and see what events transpire

2:29
Dan Szymborski: If McHugh is a #2 starter for a contender, for instance, the Astros are going to want something *better* than that

2:30
jim: would bader and Hudson be a fair package for machado?

2:31
Dan Szymborski: I think realistically, that’s what the O’s will get, but I”m not sure they’ll take it

2:31
Matt: Just incase anyone reading the transcript missed it the first time:
“Markakis leadoff isn’t really a bad idea at all” – Dan Szymborski

2:31
Phil: Why are the O’s depriving me of watching Chris Davis whiff his way to the worst season ever??? Do they really think that is less watchable than what they are displaying anyway??? They are even inept at displaying their ineptitude.

2:31
Dan Szymborski: I bet they didn’t notice until recently

2:31
Chili Beans Davis: Was your greatest birthday present ever someone sending you a video of Nick Markakis saying “Happy Birthday Dan Szymborski, you jackass”?

2:31
Dan Szymborski: It would be

2:31
Matt: To dig a bit deeper on your theory of suspended games – would it apply then, that the concession stands must save all the food they were selling that day, and bring it back out for sale upon resume?

2:31
Dan Szymborski: Hadn’t thought of that.

2:31
Dan Szymborski: But yes

2:32
resumeman: is Devers going to be any good?

2:32
Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:32
CamdenWarehouse: is Galileo perpetually ready to eat or is that just a function of when your chat takes place?

2:32
Dan Szymborski: He’s perpetually ready to eat, but the 2 PM-4 PM window is the worst

2:32
Dan Szymborski: He gets fed at 4, so he’s usually raring right at 2

2:33
Dan Szymborski: I will feed him early if I have radio at some point between 2 and 4.

2:33
Dan Szymborski: Because he will see me doing something and come into the office and start meow-barking

2:33
Brood550: Is it ok to vote for the worst players on the league you don’t like in the All-Star game?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: Sure.  It’s not an expert panel!

2:33
Babe Lincoln: Odds the O’s wait until 3 minutes before the deadline to pull the trigger on an ultimately disappointing Machado package, and then bungle the paperwork and the deal falls through?

2:33
Dan Szymborski: >0 at least

2:33
Chili Beans Davis: Have you had any interactions with ballplayers outside of a ballpark/press event?  Did they go well?

2:34
Dan Szymborski: Not that I can think of offhand.  I interact with May about video games.

2:34
tb.25: AT&T Park: Food, Chinese cart behind home plate (normal field level anyone can access), Beer: Anything local

2:34
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Re: Jim and Pam, it is the sum of all of the parts. I won’t go into too much detail, but in this new #metoo theater, I think a lot of people would see through Jim as being a misogynist snake.

2:34
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I don’t want to jump into this area!

2:34
Chili Beans Davis: The O’s are in the James Spader on The Office part of their timeline

2:34
Dan Szymborski: I actually think James Spader could have worked if they had a better idea what to do with him

2:35
Dan Szymborski: BUt they just kinda threw him in there and said “OK, be a slightly creepy rich guy” and left it at that

2:35
Poised: Help me understand Jon Gray’s season

2:35
Dan Szymborski: I don’t

2:36
CamdenWarehouse: On the bright side, if Brady becomes the GM imagine the stories that will be able to be written about how he refuses to admit he’s no longer a player, dressing in a uniform, sitting in the dugout, leading the pregame warmups…

2:36
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that Brady isn’t better than Joey RIckard right now

2:37
Billy Beane: Dan, I recently made chili and one friend brought over home made sourdough and another brought over home made cheese and honestly, I felt like i was living ‘MY BEST LIFE’ and I want to thank you for making me think about chili every time you chat.

2:37
Billy Beane: I contend that street food of every culture is the best food. Hence the height of American cuisine is the hot dog.

2:37
Rouse: Who makes a bigger offensive impact once he makes it to the Show, Eloy Jimenez or Tatis Jr.?

2:37
Dan Szymborski: Eloy, but Tatis is going to be awesomesauce over all

2:37
Dbo: Carson prefers burgers at IHOb!

2:38
Not Carlos: Carlos Martinez is really struggling. Did the Cardinals rush him back?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: Not positive, but I think there’s a case to be made.

2:38
McAllister : explain Gleyber Torres power? Where did it come from?

2:38
Dan Szymborski: He’s a young phenom oozing with talent who always had power upside

2:39
Dan Szymborski: Players that talented frequently do things that surprise and shock

2:39
Billy Beane: When you are in SF you should eat at Tartine Bakery for peak Sourdough.

2:39
Kiermaier’s GERD: Condiment Chat with Dan..guaranteed to infuriate someone here just for baseball talk and nothing else. We can all get along . Correct?

2:39
Dan Szymborski: We all put mustard on our pitches

2:39
Justin: Is this the decline of Kyle Seager?

2:46
Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I had to reboot my laptop

2:46
Dan Szymborski: and Windows decided it was totally going to apply an update right there and then

2:46
Dan Szymborski: On Seager, I fear so.

2:47
Dan Szymborski: 2017 was a real down year too

2:47
Dan Szymborski: And 2018 has been even worse

2:47
Dan Szymborski: It’s not unheard of, he’s 31 this fall

2:47
Chili Beans Davis: Would ZiPS have caught on as well if you had gone with “Dan’s Projection System”?

2:48
Dan Szymborski: DPS!

2:48
Ben: Can Ruben Amaro Jr. still retain his base coaching duties? Potential deal breaker

2:48
Brood550: Clowns are only funny when they swing away.

2:48
Naveed shah: Would you help me out about batting stat runs created. Which exact formula baseball reference are using

2:48
Dan Szymborski: I *think* they use the last one before the weird RBI situational stuff that James added that nobody used

2:48
Bo: Word on the street is that Harper has shaved his beard. All but confirming he’s a Yankee next year, yes?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: Well, you want them in the bidding!

2:49
Dbo: Is Ohtani needing Tommy John surgery really just a cover up for them needing to upgrade his bionic arm to a newer model?

2:49
Dan Szymborski: I’m disappointed that he doesn’t throw lefthanded too, but just like 96

2:49
Over Here: Victor Robles for Realmuto. Who says no?

2:50
Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to give up that much b/c I love Robles

2:50
Dan Szymborski: But realistically, the Nats are on a clock

2:51
Babe Lincoln: Why so many cats?

2:51
Dan Szymborski: I have 3 cats

2:51
Dan Szymborski: That’s 1000 square feet a cat!

2:51
Bob: Can the orioles just package Machado  with Davis just to get out of Davis salary for a bunch of non-prospects?

2:53
Matt: I have a theory that the Sims are actually the same people attending both my amusement parks in Roller Coaster Tycoon and my baseball games in MLB The Show.

2:53
Dbo: Is Miracle Whip actually salad dressing like the jar says?

2:54
Dan Szymborski: For really sad salads?

2:54
Dan Szymborski: If you’re just throwing mayonnaise into your salad, you can probably just skip the salad

2:54
Ben: I really want to hear more of Ray Lioata’s takes on the Office, please let him continue!

2:54
Dbo: Can you put ketchup on your pitches along with more mustard on your pitches?

2:54
Billy Beane: Dan, am I to be clear that you do not put ketchup on a hamburger? What do you dip your french fries in? Please clear up this important issue.

2:54
Dan Szymborski: No ketchup, I have standards

2:55
Dan Szymborski: I like malt vinegar for fries

2:56
hscer: does laptop reboot equal queue reboot

2:56
Dan Szymborski: No

2:56
JH: Who knew Kyle Seager would be the one to break Fangraphs.  He of the super consistent above average play followed by logical age-based decline.

2:56
Karl: Kershaw is throwing a simulated game today. Can he come back and dominate for ROS?

2:56
Dan Szymborski: I’m optimistic, he always has before.

2:56
CamdenWarehouse: Fucking Windows eliminating positive action to reboot for an update

2:56
Brad: Can Gary Sanchez bust out of his slump? There are some encouraging signs such as his xWOBA.

2:57
Dan Szymborski: Him, I’m optimistic about.  There’s no way his BABIP is sustainably that low

2:57
hscer: I’d hope turning 31 this fall isn’t unheard of, otherwise I’m in big trouble

2:57
The Ghost of Wade Boggs: Is this the worst position the Tigers could be in right now? They’re playoff odds are still below 1%, however how do you justify trading assets when you’re still “technically” in contention?

2:57
Dan Szymborski: It makes it a bit awkward becuase it gets people’s hopes up.  I think you still have to make those trades though.

2:57
Dan Szymborski: If being a GM was easy, then anyone could do it!

2:57
Red Foreman: Dan, you are the man. It’s not just a coincidence that that rhymes. Where does the term “goody two shoes” come from?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: I dunno, it sounds like some weird character in a kid’s book from Belgium that was translated poorly into English

2:58
Bob: What player on steroids can’t hit a HR at yankee stadium?

2:58
Dan Szymborski: Jason Tyner?

2:59
LC Mike: It has been an honor to participate in this weekly chat about everything. It is modestly above better than average.

2:59
Peter: Is this the point to press the panic button on Gary Sanchez?

2:59
Dan Szymborski: No

2:59
JH: Ohtani getting hurt is the sign of the impending apocalypse.  Those things happen to the Mariners, not in the Mariners’ favor.

2:59
hscer: …you can’t have a 3000 sqft living space can you

3:00
Dan Szymborski: I like having a house large enough that if I have family over, I can be at a different part of the house and pretend that nobody’s here

3:00
tb.25: Was Chili Davis the world’s leading expert on chili?

3:00
Dan Szymborski: Only if he was specifically named FOR his expertise

3:00
JH: $92M for 2 months of Machado seems like a bit much.

3:00
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, that’s the problem.

3:01
Dan Szymborski: You’d probably have to trade Machado, Gausman, and Bundy to make a trade worth even talking about to take Davis scot-free

3:01
CamdenWarehouse: malt vinegar and Old Bay!

3:01
Dan Szymborski: correct.

3:01
Tim: Does it make sense for rebuilding teams to package assets with bad contracts? I’ve seen some teams do this and I feel like they don’t really need payroll flexibility at the expense of better talent in return.

3:01
Dan Szymborski: I think the opposite.  They should be willing to cover *more* of the salary in order to get better prospects.

3:01
Dan Szymborski: There are only a few ways to outright pay for prospects.  This is one of them.

3:01
Matt: I used to always order fish and chips from across the street when my buddies and I played poker strictly because it pissed them off that I would pour vinegar all over everything and stink up the room.

3:01
Kiermaier’s IBS: Dan…..Carson on line 2..Carson on line 2. He demands comments on soup and sandwiches if this nonsense is to go on.

3:01
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: The people have spoken. Get Carson to set me up with a chat about the Office.

3:02
Sleepy: There’s over five grams of sugar in a single ounce of ketchup!   That shit is almost literally a gut in a bottle.

3:02
Von Hayes: The History of Little Goody Two-Shoes is a children’s story published by John Newbery in London in 1765.

3:02
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but I wasn’t going to cheat and wikipedia it!

3:02
CamdenWarehouse: wait, who installed a panic button on Gary Sanchez? why aren’t we talking about this?

3:03
Bo: Mustard (of any form) > ketchup

3:03
Dan Szymborski: Correct

3:03
Bernie: I saw what you said about Hiura being the best projected 2B that the Brewers have. In your opinion, should they call him up and slide Villar back to SS?

3:04
Dan Szymborski: Villar’s a poor defensive shortstop, but I rather have him and Miller at short than Arcia right now

3:04
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Old Bay is just crushed red pepper, black pepper, paprika, and celery salt. Discuss.

3:04
Dan Szymborski: No, there’s more in it

3:04
Dan Szymborski: there’s mace and ginger and cardamom

3:05
Dan Szymborski: I think honey powder too?

3:05
Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head off for another week!

3:05
Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone, I’ll see you all next time.

3:05
Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs and at DSzymborski on Twitter.





Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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Mason
5 years ago

I don’t mean to be a stickler, but can we transition this Chat Box into the Chat Transcript? My work computer’s wont load up the Chat Boxes, but obviously the Transcript is fine. Usually its up within hours of a completed chat, this one has been available for over 24 hours but still no Transcript. Thanks!