Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/30/22

Dan Szymborski: Greetings all! I’ve recovered from the trendy malady of the 2020s more or less so we’re back on regular schedule.

The Guy who asks the lunch question: Glad to have you back, Dan. What’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Coke

Dan Szymborski: (the soda, not the drug)

Dan Szymborski: My appetite has been very poor over the last week. On the plus side, I’ve dropped 11 pounds

Bruce in 2023: Who do you like more as an extra bat in a daily roto: Jarren Duran or Jake Meyers ? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: Meyers probably

M’s Fan: It appears ZIPs was right about Julio. Has ZIPs opinion on Torkelson changed?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is far from giving up on torque, but his rough season so far does factor in

Angelus Novus: I thank you for being one of the few national writers who has interesting takes on the Orioles other than “Tanking is evil” “Grrrrr Angelos” “The Orioles are a doormat for X good team”

Dan Szymborski: Call ’em as I see ’em! I’ve certainly had plenty of negative O’s pieces.

Dan Szymborski: But I feel there are reasons to be positive even if the team is not actually good YET.

M’s Fan: Why does Marco Gonzales seem to outperform his ZIPs every year?

Dan Szymborski: Well, does he? Let me call him up

Dan Szymborski: From 2015-2021, ZiPS projected a 4.28 ERA, a 98 ERA+ and 9.0 WAR

Dan Szymborski: He was 4.06, 104, 9.6

Dan Szymborski: So far in 2022, ZiPS has underestimate the ERA but overestimated the FIP and WAR

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS saw 4.38/4.52/0.9 at this point of the season going into the season, he’s at 3.31/5.38/-0.2

Dan Szymborski: Though I’m not surprised; accuracy is hard, but bias is easier to wring out of a system

Dan Szymborski: Missing in ZiPS are not predictive.

Dan Szymborski: (As in direction)

Angelus Novus: Which of Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, DL Hall, and Kyle Stowers will be up this year? Any thoughts on their timelines?

Dan Szymborski: I think we’ll see SOME of all of them.

Dan Szymborski: we’ve already had a tiny bit of stowers

Dan Szymborski: It’ll be hard to keep Henderson/Westburg completely down given how they’ve played.

Dan Szymborski: Hall is the one I think may not get a taste. Still some issues to work out

Angelus Novus: Is there any MILB infielder with better projections than Gunnar Henderson?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS now has him better than Volpe, so he’d be the best infield prospect

Travis: Will Michael Harris end up with more WAR this season than Cristian Pache has by the end of his career?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a real possibility

Inaccessible Rail: It seems to me that there are financial incentives for fringe roster guys to go on the IL. Has anyone ever looked at this to see if these players are indeed more likely to land there?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen anything of this type

Dan Szymborski: I doubt teams want to encourage it

Inaccessible Rail: The Mets could use a bullpen arm or two, but they don’t want to trade any prospects. Would a team like the Cubs be willing to pair, say, David Robertson and a bad contact like Jason Heyward for a minimal prospect return? What team seems most likely to be willing to do this kind of deal?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Cubs would try and get a better prospect first. I don’t think they’re intending to go up against threshold this winter

RTJ: Can we get your official take on the Freeman Chronicles

Dan Szymborski: I put it in the category of gossip

Dan Szymborski: It’s very he said he said

Dan Szymborski: Each party has a motivation to put the best spin on the talks. And there doesn’t have to be any *intent* to be misleading, it’s just how the brain works

Dan Szymborski: Think Rashōmon

James: I have a theory that umpires are less likely to call a pitch in the strike zone a strike if the batter checks their swing. Do you know if anyone has tested that or if the data for that is even available?

Dan Szymborski: I think it HAS been tested before but I honestly don’t remember who

brad penny for your thoughts: Hi Dan, do you call hamburgers “steamed hams”?  Asking for a friend.

Dan Szymborski: I’m from Baltimore, not Albany.

JoeFaBeats: Berrios, Trevor Rogers, and Giolito, do you think any or all will

Dan Szymborski: They all will because they all be.

Dan Szymborski: Der Wille zur Macht!

Insert Witty Name Here: How many Triston McKeninze’s would fit into one Daniel Vogelbach?

Dan Szymborski: Two, but it depends how much flexibility you have to repackage limbs

Sharps: Where should I take my wife for anniversary dinner in Baltimore before we go to a show at Ottobar?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on what cuisine you like!

Dan Szymborski: One place I recommend a lot is La Cuchara in Woodberry

Dan Szymborski: And I love going to the Helmand, an Afghan restaurant run by Karzai’s brother

Dan Szymborski: If you’re looking for something classic, something in little Italy. Tio Pepe is an old school classic

Josh: Hey Dan, wondering what are your thoughts on Bo Naylor. He was a 50FV last year but fell harshly but seems to have bounced back.

Dan Szymborski: Really8 have to see how AAA goes.

Dan Szymborski: His AA was walkeriffic, which is worrying since he’s not young

Cynthia: Why do teams let players play through so many injuries? I know players are competitive and want to play, but it seems like a AAAA-type player could produce similarly to stars with serious injuries and getting more rest should help the star produce better once healthy and stay healthier going forward.

Dan Szymborski: Players are proud, competitive people.

Dan Szymborski: I think teams are better at not doing this than in the past

Romorr: Absolutely loved the Orioles piece, A++. With that said, Lopez is a name in Oriole land where fans are split. He’s great this year, and some don’t think the return would be worth trading him. What do you see as his value, 45+ or 45, with a 40+? Could it be more with a few more dominate weeks?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’m always trading the reliever.

Insert Witty Name Here: What percentage of current fans who say “I like the human element of the umpires” will say “why didn’t we get robot umps sooner?” after the ABS system is implemented?

Dan Szymborski: 30%. Mostly after a bad call

Gil: Who are the top guys with 1-3 years experience are must watch in your mind?

Dan Szymborski: Julio Rodriguez

Dan Szymborski: Tatis

Dan Szymborski: Can still count Yordan Alvarez

Dan Szymborski: People underrate Alvarez as a hitter; he’s a lot more than just a power guy

Mvp: Al mvp race your thoughts

Dan Szymborski: I’d vote for Ohtani today, but it’s very close among the top four or five guys or so

Thomas: What’s the chance that the Blue Jays trade Danny Jansen at the deadline, do you think?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s unlikely.

Seamus: Do you think the Orioles win the AL East at least once between 2023-2027? I think it’s likely that all five teams really try to compete over the next five years based on the ages of their stars, the states of their farm systems, and their histories with free agent signings. Odds are that somebody wins the division at least twice – are the O’s the team left out in the cold?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably put it less than 50/50, but it is certainly possible

Romorr: Jordan Westburg, and Gunnar Henderson are doing things in AAA. Elias will slow roll, but if they both continue to do well, when would you call them up? 2023 would be disappointing, more so with Westburg than Henderson.

Dan Szymborski: I’d call both of them up fairly quickly if they continue to play at this level.

Dan Szymborski: I know, service time games and all

Dan Szymborski: But there comes a point at which if a player doesn’t have down stretches at AAA, you’re not sufficiently challenging them

Dan Szymborski: I believe in challenging your top prospects

Seamus: How much time do you spend tweaking how ZIPs works? What was the last change you made that you’d consider radical?

Dan Szymborski: Radical? Not really. I do interations, not revolutions.

Dan Szymborski: I’m always working on SOMETHING

Dan Szymborski: One of the great things about the FG job is that while I get to write, I can also spend days tinkering

Dan Szymborski: It’s a freedom I would not have at The Athletic or somewhere

Appa Yip Yip: Sometimes when I type fangraphs my fat thumb hits the “d” button instead and I type dangraphs

Dan Szymborski: Please don’t call it DanGraphs or my colleagues are going to think it was my idea and I’m a total dick!

Cynthia: What do you make of Corbin Burnes’ HR/FB rate? His career rate is around league average, but his season rates are 12.9, 38.6, 4.7, 6.1, and 14.3.

Dan Szymborski: HR/FB is quite volatile!

Lemon Juice Jones: And congrats on feeling better!

Dan Szymborski: All the credit goes to my immune system

James: Yordan or Soto over the next 5 years as best lefty bat?

Dan Szymborski: Still going to say Soto

Liz: I’m starting a franchise game with the Orioles in MLB the SHOW. What kind of contract should I give Rutschman?

Dan Szymborski: WTF he wants! Though I don’t know what the latest AI for contracts is

Dan Szymborski: I’m not getting a new MLB the Show until I can finally land a PS5 somewhere around MSRP

T(win)s: Does ZIPs adjust for a pitcher going from starter to reliever due to velocity bump and fewer innings?  Specifically, give me hope the Twins have somebody/anybody to help the dumpster fire that has been the bullpen outside of Duran

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Rodney: MJ Melendez is off to a good start in Kansas City. Do you think he’ll be in the conversation with guys like Kirk, Smith, Contreras, Realmuto, Rutschman for best-hitting catchers in MLB going forward?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a possibiliyt, but I don’t think he’ll be as good as the elitist ones

Gleyber: So is this basically what Gleyber is, then? Not rabbit hole 38 homers or whatever happened the last two years but a, what, 120 OPS+ guy who is actually solid at 2b? Those two years are just going to be odd if he stays solid.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, nothing wrong with this Gleyber

Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit surprised we actually got something in the middle

Insert Witty Name Here: Which former Fangraphs writer do you miss the most? And why is it Cistulli?

Dan Szymborski: Quite a lot!

Dan Szymborski: I really miss having Kevin around. He wasn’t here for a huge length of time and we never got to much direct collaboration on any projects. Didn’t really go to during the period we were both at ESPN either

Dan Szymborski: Same with Eno. I’ve never really gotten to work WITH Eno

Eddie Waitkus: Any chance FanGraphs adds gambling analysis?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to play mind reader, but I suspect if an insightful writer wanted to write a lot in that field, there wouldn’t be objections

Dan Szymborski: Not using any confidential info, my observational belief is that the focus on FG is *generally* to get insightful people with interesting skill sets and the content derives from who those people tend to be

Dan Szymborski: I’m not involved in the hiring process, but I imagine they’re looking at a wide variety of skillsets

Dan Szymborski: If I wanted to write more gambling things, I doubt anyone would object

Key Flaw: Not liking broccoli or Cincy chili is something many others do. Are there any other foods that you hate that seems weird to hate? Also, are there any foods you love that seems weird to love? For example, I hate (repulsed by) apricots but love capers, and that seems weird.

Dan Szymborski: I like how avocados taste, but I don’t like straight avocados

Dan Szymborski: It’s a texture thing. They read more creamy in my mouth than they should

Dan Szymborski: I also like peanuts MUCH more tehan peanut butter. I don’t like having high viscosity mushy things

JerseyMike: Is Joey Gallo cooked? The contact and strikeout rates are woeful even for him and this is now coming without the trademarked home run totals

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say cooked, but you can definitely serve a carpaccio

Dan Szymborski: I feel that his struggles have led to him taking big steps back on his pitch selection. He’s not really hitting all that hard

Condor: It’s crazy we’re about to witness Trout and Ohtani lead the AL in WAR, neither of them win the MVP, and the Angels not contend for a playoff spot. Brings the term “Trouted” to new heights. Very sad for the fans.

Key Flaw: I need a fellow Marylander’s opinion: What would be the best move that the Orioles could do with their minor league teams to troll the Nationals? I think move their AAA team to Silver Spring and rename them the Senators.

Dan Szymborski: Have their own Presidents race but just have a giant Stalin mascot beat up the presidents

keep it off: Keep those pounds off.  Target and consciously keep those pounds off.

Dan Szymborski: Not generally part of my skill set!

RTJ: How embarrassed do you think are players when they break their elbow trying to look mildly intimidating during a scrum?

Dan Szymborski: The scrums are always kinda disappointing

Dan Szymborski: a lot ends up being Aggressive Hugwatch

KuruptFM: Dan if you had to eat a 4oz portion of any MLB player who would you choose?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not even sure how to answer that!

Dan Szymborski: Maybe a hefty player since they’ll miss it more?

Dan Szymborski: Like some Vogelbach chicharrones?

Dan Szymborski: Err miss it less

Insert Witty Name Here: How much of personal effort do you give at your job? How much effort would you recommend someone to do at a corporate job?

Dan Szymborski: I love my job and I put my all into it!

Dan Szymborski: For the second person, everyone has their own motivations and ultimately answers to themself, so it would be the height of arrogance for me to tell people how to act

Guest: Do you think Goldschmidt is the outright favorite for NL MVP at this point. He has been insane so far.

Dan Szymborski: He’s up there, but I’d personally vote for Machado today

Kyle: As you’ve admitted in the past, ZiPS is not good at predicting playing time (for fantasy purposes). For next year, would you release a ZiPS 600 similar to how Steamer releases theirs? Related request would be to get “[Projection System] 600” projections for all systems into the Auction Calculation.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t do a 600, but I do a depth chart one

Dan Szymborski: https://www.fangraphs.com/projections.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&type=zips…

Vlad’s Dad: As difficult as this is to predict, of the 25 and under pitchers, who do you think has the best shot at putting together a HOF-worthy career?

Dan Szymborski: McClanahan

Dan Szymborski: Though Urias is up there

Straight Cash Thome: Has there ever been a notable prospect with 40%+ K-rate who has turned around to have excellent place discipline and succeed in the majors?

Dan Szymborski: That extreme? I don’t think so offhand

Jesse: How concerned are you about DL Hall?

Dan Szymborski: Some.

Tacoby Bellsbury: How has the ever-changing state of the baseball itself affected ZIPS?

Dan Szymborski: Deleteriously, I’m sure

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard for ANYONE, scout or stat or computer to do better when the construction of the ball is emoji shrug

Dan Szymborski: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Dave: Would you ever consider writing a column at the end of the season highlighting players that had the biggest changes in their projections compared to their preseason projections?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve done that a few times, though it hasn’t been one of my regular MUST DO conceits

Dan Szymborski: A lot of stuff, I write simply because it interests me

Dave: Have you ever attempted any sort of projection system for something other than baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I actually have quite a lot done for an NBA projection system, but it’s hard to prioritize the work for that

Straight Cash Thome: How dare you call sweet Alexandro Kirk an “elitist”, he is anything but!

Claude Aardvark: Can you have the neural network create a list of increasingly absurd and inappropriate home run celebrations?

Dan Szymborski: I could

Dan Szymborski: While I do that, decide on a generated nickname for Joe Musgrove

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski:

Gary: Have you ever considered using ZiPS or your model making background to gamble for yourself?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: I used to do a yearly thing on ESPN where I make predictions and bet $200 on each

Dan Szymborski: Got Scherzer’s first breakout and Yelich’s 2018

Houzer: Who do the Paadres not re-sign .. Clevinger, Musgrove, Manaea?

Dan Szymborski: I think Manaea most likely to be a rental

Random Cards fan: If Goldschmidt hits like Zips has him projected for the rest of the season, is that an MVP worth season? Or is it a case like Vlad Jr. last year where really great 1st baseman loses out to player with better positional value?

Dan Szymborski: I think he falls short

Houzer: wonder if Correa is still going to demand 300M+ and 10 years?

Dan Szymborski: He might, but I’m not sure he would actually get it

Appa Yip Yip: The year is 1932, you are George Washington Carver. What hitherto undreamt of use for the peanut do you come up with?

Dan Szymborski: Mr. Peanut sex robots

Steve O: Gleyber actually has a career high in xWOBA and batted ball data. His wRC+ is basically the same as those juiced ball seasons and he’s at ~34 HR/650 PA pace. He’s good and is still just 25 years old.

Kyle: Re: ZiPS 600. Yes, I know that there is a ZiPS DC. I’m directly asking if we could do a ZiPS 600 if you were to be so kind? It’s puzzling to me that the projection industry doesn’t use 600s to isolate true talent. PT somewhat obscures this.

Dan Szymborski: I could do that

Isaac: Will contact hitters still be in baseball in 10 years? (Astudillio, Tapia, etc)

Dan Szymborski: Yes, there’s always room for guys who make contact, especially at prime defensive positions

Jeff: Do physical anomalies like Oneil Cruz create any special problems for Zips?   Or does size not matter…

Dan Szymborski: I’ve found dsize not to be very helpful

Seamus: As long as he’s a Padre, it’s gotta be “Holy Joe Musgrove”. It also means he can only ever change teams if it’s to join the Angels or Cardinals.

TomBruno23: Can Vinny Pasquantino become the next Kila Ka’aihue if everything breaks right?

Dan Szymborski: Ouch

TomBruno23: Are you a football guy? I have season tickets for St. Louis City SC (starts in 2023) and would love to host you and ZIPS for a match. Impossible White Castle Sliders on me for the tailgating.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not, unfortunately

Dan Szymborski: I tend to like sports based on how I enjoyed playing them as a kid

Dan Szymborski: (except hockey, though it’s been a long time since I followed)

Dan Szymborski: And I really did not like playing soccer as a kid

Dan Szymborski: There was simply too high a ratio of running to fun stuff

Dan Szymborski: Baseball, there’s a lot of standing between the running

Dan Szymborski: and football, there’s some fun violence

RTJ: Have you ever been contacted by casinos to help with setting lines or odds?

Dan Szymborski: I have done some consulting, but I can’t go into specifics, though I can say nothing this micro, more macro things

Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan – curious if you know about any research into synthetic/bionic pitching arm ligaments.  Is science trying to develop something to last longer than humans have pushed things?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t, but it’s something I expect to be a bigger deal in coming decades

Dan Szymborski: Printable ligaments WILL be here at some point

Dan Szymborski: and I expect that it’ll be something that becomes a standard procedure for prospects while in college or minors

Morbo: Dan, I don’t see how dsize would in anyway be relevant to baseball ability it isn’t even strongly correlated with height. On second thought, how the hell did you get dsize of MLB players?

Dan Szymborski: oh god, did I have an unfortunate extra character?

Bryan: Hosmer is in season 12, but has 10.5 fWAR. Has anyone had a longer career averaging less WAR/year?

Dan Szymborski: Among modern guys, Ruben Sierra

Dan Szymborski: Larry Bowa and Joe Carter had better averages

Isaac: How does age factor into a players placing in a prospect list. If a player has a .280 AVG, 20 HR, 20 SB in A+, but is 26 why would he be left off a top prospect list?

Dan Szymborski: It depends on the philosophy of who is making the list

Steve O: Isiah Kiner-Falefa was supposed to be a defense first SS but he’s been not great on defense or offense. Would Oswald Peraza be an upgrade (it seems like he’s adjusted to AAA over the last month and seems like he’d be better defensively)?

Dan Szymborski: In this case, I think given where the Yankees are, Peraza’s not a *huge* upgrade on IKF’s future expectation for 2022

Vic: Moved from across the street from Loyola Blakefield to Freeland last summer…..Bonkey’s, albeit pricey, is a treasure!  Didn’t you follow a similar path before leaving the state? Scooped up Gunnar off waivers 6 weeks ago and now can keep him late in a draft in 2023,2024, 2025. Will he get SS or 3B in he arrives for good?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I actually grew up a few blocks from Loyola Blakefield — we went to the board of ed to sled when there wasn’t enough snow to make the forest hill at the corner of kenilworth and Charles safe

Dan Szymborski: I went just over the state line into PA

Dan Szymborski: Is that out-of-place mansion along york by the border still there?

Dan Szymborski: https://www.google.com/maps/@39.7275021,-76.6648802,3a,75y,55.45h,69.5…

Dan Szymborski: Someone built a giant mansion overlooking interestate 83

Dan Szymborski: Here it is

Dan Szymborski: https://www.zillow.com/homedetails/1274-Oakwood-Rd-New-Freedom-PA-1734…

Bryan: The out of place mansion is still there!

Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t sure. Last time I was there I went to brown’s but I got off at Loganville

szakyl: Re: ZiPS 600. Something like this really helps towards the end of the season when you just see either .1 or .2 WAR for everybody and can’t really differentiate abilities by counting stats.

Jesse: I thought Logan Gilbert was projected as a No. 2 or 3. Is it possible he’s an ace?

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly making his case

Thunderclap Jackson: If Dangraphs were created what would it contain? What would  a Notgraphs-like universe molded in your image be like?

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: grammar: *less* WAR or *fewer* WAR? maybe this is for lightning round.

Dan Szymborski: I think less WAR since it’s rarely exactly a whole, countable WAR

Big Bob: Do you think Jack Flaherty will regain his ’18-19 form?

Dan Szymborski: I’m starting to grow pessimistic for health reasons

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Am I missing something or have I just missed you? Where have all the Dan chats gone?

Dan Szymborski: One week I had a work task to finish and then I was off for a few days last week because of COVID

John: How can I explain the fallacy of the “productive out” which advances a runner at the cost of an out to someone who lacks a math orientation or math skills?

Dan Szymborski: In my experience, unsuccessfully

Dan Szymborski: If they’re a chess player, you can give them one of the crappier gambits

Dan Szymborski: Productive outs *are* more valuable than normal when run scoring is low

TomBruno23: No problem, would still host you for a game in Baseball Heaven this summer. Same offer of Impossible White Castle Sliders stands.

Dan Szymborski: Can I have Probable sliders?

sadtrombone: Helmand is really good. Or at least was, I went something like 12 years ago. Delicious.

Dan Szymborski: I still go there probably half the time I’m in baltimore

Dan Szymborski: My faves are the mashawa and the aushak

Dan Szymborski: And one of the best places in town for properly prepared lamb

MilwaukeeBeerJays: You know Dan it’s really selfish of you to take time off because of things like “health” and “work”.

Dan Szymborski: Meg is really good at making sure we have a good work/life balance. She’s super nice at getting me to stop working when I’m sick, I hate not tinkering with things even when I’m “off”

Ross: Julio Rodriguez is a top __ player in baseball right now?

Dan Szymborski: hat wearing in my dreams

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head off for another week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!