Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/30/22

12:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Greetings all! I’ve recovered from the trendy malady of the 2020s more or less so we’re back on regular schedule.

12:01
The Guy who asks the lunch question: Glad to have you back, Dan. What’s for lunch?

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Coke

12:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (the soda, not the drug)

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My appetite has been very poor over the last week. On the plus side, I’ve dropped 11 pounds

12:03
Bruce in 2023: Who do you like more as an extra bat in a daily roto: Jarren Duran or Jake Meyers ? Thanks.

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Meyers probably

12:03
M’s Fan: It appears ZIPs was right about Julio. Has ZIPs opinion on Torkelson changed?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is far from giving up on torque, but his rough season so far does factor in

12:04
Angelus Novus: I thank you for being one of the few national writers who has interesting takes on the Orioles other than “Tanking is evil” “Grrrrr Angelos” “The Orioles are a doormat for X good team”

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Call ’em as I see ’em! I’ve certainly had plenty of negative O’s pieces.

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But I feel there are reasons to be positive even if the team is not actually good YET.

12:04
M’s Fan: Why does Marco Gonzales seem to outperform his ZIPs every year?

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, does he? Let me call him up

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: From 2015-2021, ZiPS projected a 4.28 ERA, a 98 ERA+ and 9.0 WAR

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He was 4.06, 104, 9.6

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: So far in 2022, ZiPS has underestimate the ERA but overestimated the FIP and WAR

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS saw 4.38/4.52/0.9 at this point of the season going into the season, he’s at 3.31/5.38/-0.2

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I’m not surprised; accuracy is hard, but bias is easier to wring out of a system

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Missing in ZiPS are not predictive.

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (As in direction)

12:10
Angelus Novus: Which of Gunnar Henderson, Jordan Westburg, DL Hall, and Kyle Stowers will be up this year? Any thoughts on their timelines?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think we’ll see SOME of all of them.

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: we’ve already had a tiny bit of stowers

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’ll be hard to keep Henderson/Westburg completely down given how they’ve played.

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hall is the one I think may not get a taste. Still some issues to work out

12:11
Angelus Novus: Is there any MILB infielder with better projections than Gunnar Henderson?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS now has him better than Volpe, so he’d be the best infield prospect

12:11
Travis: Will Michael Harris end up with more WAR this season than Cristian Pache has by the end of his career?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a real possibility

12:11
Inaccessible Rail: It seems to me that there are financial incentives for fringe roster guys to go on the IL. Has anyone ever looked at this to see if these players are indeed more likely to land there?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen anything of this type

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I doubt teams want to encourage it

12:12
Inaccessible Rail: The Mets could use a bullpen arm or two, but they don’t want to trade any prospects. Would a team like the Cubs be willing to pair, say, David Robertson and a bad contact like Jason Heyward for a minimal prospect return? What team seems most likely to be willing to do this kind of deal?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think the Cubs would try and get a better prospect first. I don’t think they’re intending to go up against threshold this winter

12:13
RTJ: Can we get your official take on the Freeman Chronicles

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I put it in the category of gossip

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s very he said he said

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Each party has a motivation to put the best spin on the talks. And there doesn’t have to be any *intent* to be misleading, it’s just how the brain works

12:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Think Rashōmon

12:15
James: I have a theory that umpires are less likely to call a pitch in the strike zone a strike if the batter checks their swing. Do you know if anyone has tested that or if the data for that is even available?

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it HAS been tested before but I honestly don’t remember who

12:15
brad penny for your thoughts: Hi Dan, do you call hamburgers “steamed hams”?  Asking for a friend.

12:15
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m from Baltimore, not Albany.

12:15
JoeFaBeats: Berrios, Trevor Rogers, and Giolito, do you think any or all will

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They all will because they all be.

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Der Wille zur Macht!

12:16
Insert Witty Name Here: How many Triston McKeninze’s would fit into one Daniel Vogelbach?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Two, but it depends how much flexibility you have to repackage limbs

12:18
Sharps: Where should I take my wife for anniversary dinner in Baltimore before we go to a show at Ottobar?

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Depends on what cuisine you like!

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One place I recommend a lot is La Cuchara in Woodberry

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I love going to the Helmand, an Afghan restaurant run by Karzai’s brother

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If you’re looking for something classic, something in little Italy. Tio Pepe is an old school classic

12:21
Josh: Hey Dan, wondering what are your thoughts on Bo Naylor. He was a 50FV last year but fell harshly but seems to have bounced back.

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Really8 have to see how AAA goes.

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: His AA was walkeriffic, which is worrying since he’s not young

12:21
Cynthia: Why do teams let players play through so many injuries? I know players are competitive and want to play, but it seems like a AAAA-type player could produce similarly to stars with serious injuries and getting more rest should help the star produce better once healthy and stay healthier going forward.

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Players are proud, competitive people.

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think teams are better at not doing this than in the past

12:22
Romorr: Absolutely loved the Orioles piece, A++. With that said, Lopez is a name in Oriole land where fans are split. He’s great this year, and some don’t think the return would be worth trading him. What do you see as his value, 45+ or 45, with a 40+? Could it be more with a few more dominate weeks?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’m always trading the reliever.

12:22
Insert Witty Name Here: What percentage of current fans who say “I like the human element of the umpires” will say “why didn’t we get robot umps sooner?” after the ABS system is implemented?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: 30%. Mostly after a bad call

12:23
Gil: Who are the top guys with 1-3 years experience are must watch in your mind?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Julio Rodriguez

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Tatis

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Can still count Yordan Alvarez

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: People underrate Alvarez as a hitter; he’s a lot more than just a power guy

12:24
Mvp: Al mvp race your thoughts

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d vote for Ohtani today, but it’s very close among the top four or five guys or so

12:24
Thomas: What’s the chance that the Blue Jays trade Danny Jansen at the deadline, do you think?

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think it’s unlikely.

12:25
Seamus: Do you think the Orioles win the AL East at least once between 2023-2027? I think it’s likely that all five teams really try to compete over the next five years based on the ages of their stars, the states of their farm systems, and their histories with free agent signings. Odds are that somebody wins the division at least twice – are the O’s the team left out in the cold?

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d probably put it less than 50/50, but it is certainly possible

12:25
Romorr: Jordan Westburg, and Gunnar Henderson are doing things in AAA. Elias will slow roll, but if they both continue to do well, when would you call them up? 2023 would be disappointing, more so with Westburg than Henderson.

12:25
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d call both of them up fairly quickly if they continue to play at this level.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I know, service time games and all

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: But there comes a point at which if a player doesn’t have down stretches at AAA, you’re not sufficiently challenging them

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I believe in challenging your top prospects

12:26
Seamus: How much time do you spend tweaking how ZIPs works? What was the last change you made that you’d consider radical?

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Radical? Not really. I do interations, not revolutions.

12:26
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m always working on SOMETHING

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One of the great things about the FG job is that while I get to write, I can also spend days tinkering

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a freedom I would not have at The Athletic or somewhere

12:27
Appa Yip Yip: Sometimes when I type fangraphs my fat thumb hits the “d” button instead and I type dangraphs

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Please don’t call it DanGraphs or my colleagues are going to think it was my idea and I’m a total dick!

12:28
Cynthia: What do you make of Corbin Burnes’ HR/FB rate? His career rate is around league average, but his season rates are 12.9, 38.6, 4.7, 6.1, and 14.3.

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: HR/FB is quite volatile!

12:28
Lemon Juice Jones: And congrats on feeling better!

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: All the credit goes to my immune system

12:28
James: Yordan or Soto over the next 5 years as best lefty bat?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Still going to say Soto

12:28
Liz: I’m starting a franchise game with the Orioles in MLB the SHOW. What kind of contract should I give Rutschman?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: WTF he wants! Though I don’t know what the latest AI for contracts is

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not getting a new MLB the Show until I can finally land a PS5 somewhere around MSRP

12:29
T(win)s: Does ZIPs adjust for a pitcher going from starter to reliever due to velocity bump and fewer innings?  Specifically, give me hope the Twins have somebody/anybody to help the dumpster fire that has been the bullpen outside of Duran

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:29
Rodney: MJ Melendez is off to a good start in Kansas City. Do you think he’ll be in the conversation with guys like Kirk, Smith, Contreras, Realmuto, Rutschman for best-hitting catchers in MLB going forward?

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a possibiliyt, but I don’t think he’ll be as good as the elitist ones

12:30
Gleyber: So is this basically what Gleyber is, then? Not rabbit hole 38 homers or whatever happened the last two years but a, what, 120 OPS+ guy who is actually solid at 2b? Those two years are just going to be odd if he stays solid.

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, nothing wrong with this Gleyber

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m a bit surprised we actually got something in the middle

12:31
Insert Witty Name Here: Which former Fangraphs writer do you miss the most? And why is it Cistulli?

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Quite a lot!

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I really miss having Kevin around. He wasn’t here for a huge length of time and we never got to much direct collaboration on any projects. Didn’t really go to during the period we were both at ESPN either

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Same with Eno. I’ve never really gotten to work WITH Eno

12:32
Eddie Waitkus: Any chance FanGraphs adds gambling analysis?

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to play mind reader, but I suspect if an insightful writer wanted to write a lot in that field, there wouldn’t be objections

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not using any confidential info, my observational belief is that the focus on FG is *generally* to get insightful people with interesting skill sets and the content derives from who those people tend to be

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not involved in the hiring process, but I imagine they’re looking at a wide variety of skillsets

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If I wanted to write more gambling things, I doubt anyone would object

12:34
Key Flaw: Not liking broccoli or Cincy chili is something many others do. Are there any other foods that you hate that seems weird to hate? Also, are there any foods you love that seems weird to love? For example, I hate (repulsed by) apricots but love capers, and that seems weird.

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like how avocados taste, but I don’t like straight avocados

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s a texture thing. They read more creamy in my mouth than they should

12:35
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I also like peanuts MUCH more tehan peanut butter. I don’t like having high viscosity mushy things

12:36
JerseyMike: Is Joey Gallo cooked? The contact and strikeout rates are woeful even for him and this is now coming without the trademarked home run totals

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say cooked, but you can definitely serve a carpaccio

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I feel that his struggles have led to him taking big steps back on his pitch selection. He’s not really hitting all that hard

12:36
Condor: It’s crazy we’re about to witness Trout and Ohtani lead the AL in WAR, neither of them win the MVP, and the Angels not contend for a playoff spot. Brings the term “Trouted” to new heights. Very sad for the fans.

12:37
Key Flaw: I need a fellow Marylander’s opinion: What would be the best move that the Orioles could do with their minor league teams to troll the Nationals? I think move their AAA team to Silver Spring and rename them the Senators.

12:37
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Have their own Presidents race but just have a giant Stalin mascot beat up the presidents

12:37
keep it off: Keep those pounds off.  Target and consciously keep those pounds off.

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not generally part of my skill set!

12:38
RTJ: How embarrassed do you think are players when they break their elbow trying to look mildly intimidating during a scrum?

12:38
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The scrums are always kinda disappointing

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: a lot ends up being Aggressive Hugwatch

12:39
KuruptFM: Dan if you had to eat a 4oz portion of any MLB player who would you choose?

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not even sure how to answer that!

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe a hefty player since they’ll miss it more?

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Like some Vogelbach chicharrones?

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Err miss it less

12:40
Insert Witty Name Here: How much of personal effort do you give at your job? How much effort would you recommend someone to do at a corporate job?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I love my job and I put my all into it!

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: For the second person, everyone has their own motivations and ultimately answers to themself, so it would be the height of arrogance for me to tell people how to act

12:40
Guest: Do you think Goldschmidt is the outright favorite for NL MVP at this point. He has been insane so far.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s up there, but I’d personally vote for Machado today

12:41
Kyle: As you’ve admitted in the past, ZiPS is not good at predicting playing time (for fantasy purposes). For next year, would you release a ZiPS 600 similar to how Steamer releases theirs? Related request would be to get “[Projection System] 600” projections for all systems into the Auction Calculation.

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t do a 600, but I do a depth chart one

12:42
Vlad’s Dad: As difficult as this is to predict, of the 25 and under pitchers, who do you think has the best shot at putting together a HOF-worthy career?

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: McClanahan

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though Urias is up there

12:44
Straight Cash Thome: Has there ever been a notable prospect with 40%+ K-rate who has turned around to have excellent place discipline and succeed in the majors?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That extreme? I don’t think so offhand

12:44
Jesse: How concerned are you about DL Hall?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Some.

12:44
Tacoby Bellsbury: How has the ever-changing state of the baseball itself affected ZIPS?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Deleteriously, I’m sure

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s hard for ANYONE, scout or stat or computer to do better when the construction of the ball is emoji shrug

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

12:45
Dave: Would you ever consider writing a column at the end of the season highlighting players that had the biggest changes in their projections compared to their preseason projections?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve done that a few times, though it hasn’t been one of my regular MUST DO conceits

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A lot of stuff, I write simply because it interests me

12:46
Dave: Have you ever attempted any sort of projection system for something other than baseball?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I actually have quite a lot done for an NBA projection system, but it’s hard to prioritize the work for that

12:46
Straight Cash Thome: How dare you call sweet Alexandro Kirk an “elitist”, he is anything but!

12:46
Claude Aardvark: Can you have the neural network create a list of increasingly absurd and inappropriate home run celebrations?

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I could

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: While I do that, decide on a generated nickname for Joe Musgrove

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:50
Gary: Have you ever considered using ZiPS or your model making background to gamble for yourself?

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I used to do a yearly thing on ESPN where I make predictions and bet $200 on each

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Got Scherzer’s first breakout and Yelich’s 2018

12:51
Houzer: Who do the Paadres not re-sign .. Clevinger, Musgrove, Manaea?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think Manaea most likely to be a rental

12:51
Random Cards fan: If Goldschmidt hits like Zips has him projected for the rest of the season, is that an MVP worth season? Or is it a case like Vlad Jr. last year where really great 1st baseman loses out to player with better positional value?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he falls short

12:51
Houzer: wonder if Correa is still going to demand 300M+ and 10 years?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He might, but I’m not sure he would actually get it

12:52
Appa Yip Yip: The year is 1932, you are George Washington Carver. What hitherto undreamt of use for the peanut do you come up with?

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mr. Peanut sex robots

12:52
Steve O: Gleyber actually has a career high in xWOBA and batted ball data. His wRC+ is basically the same as those juiced ball seasons and he’s at ~34 HR/650 PA pace. He’s good and is still just 25 years old.

12:52
Kyle: Re: ZiPS 600. Yes, I know that there is a ZiPS DC. I’m directly asking if we could do a ZiPS 600 if you were to be so kind? It’s puzzling to me that the projection industry doesn’t use 600s to isolate true talent. PT somewhat obscures this.

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I could do that

12:52
Isaac: Will contact hitters still be in baseball in 10 years? (Astudillio, Tapia, etc)

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes, there’s always room for guys who make contact, especially at prime defensive positions

12:53
Jeff: Do physical anomalies like Oneil Cruz create any special problems for Zips?   Or does size not matter…

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve found dsize not to be very helpful

12:53
Seamus: As long as he’s a Padre, it’s gotta be “Holy Joe Musgrove”. It also means he can only ever change teams if it’s to join the Angels or Cardinals.

12:53
TomBruno23: Can Vinny Pasquantino become the next Kila Ka’aihue if everything breaks right?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Ouch

12:53
TomBruno23: Are you a football guy? I have season tickets for St. Louis City SC (starts in 2023) and would love to host you and ZIPS for a match. Impossible White Castle Sliders on me for the tailgating.

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not, unfortunately

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I tend to like sports based on how I enjoyed playing them as a kid

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (except hockey, though it’s been a long time since I followed)

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And I really did not like playing soccer as a kid

12:54
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There was simply too high a ratio of running to fun stuff

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Baseball, there’s a lot of standing between the running

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and football, there’s some fun violence

12:55
RTJ: Have you ever been contacted by casinos to help with setting lines or odds?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have done some consulting, but I can’t go into specifics, though I can say nothing this micro, more macro things

12:55
Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan – curious if you know about any research into synthetic/bionic pitching arm ligaments.  Is science trying to develop something to last longer than humans have pushed things?

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t, but it’s something I expect to be a bigger deal in coming decades

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Printable ligaments WILL be here at some point

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and I expect that it’ll be something that becomes a standard procedure for prospects while in college or minors

12:56
Morbo: Dan, I don’t see how dsize would in anyway be relevant to baseball ability it isn’t even strongly correlated with height. On second thought, how the hell did you get dsize of MLB players?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: oh god, did I have an unfortunate extra character?

12:57
Bryan: Hosmer is in season 12, but has 10.5 fWAR. Has anyone had a longer career averaging less WAR/year?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Among modern guys, Ruben Sierra

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Larry Bowa and Joe Carter had better averages

12:58
Isaac: How does age factor into a players placing in a prospect list. If a player has a .280 AVG, 20 HR, 20 SB in A+, but is 26 why would he be left off a top prospect list?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It depends on the philosophy of who is making the list

12:59
Steve O: Isiah Kiner-Falefa was supposed to be a defense first SS but he’s been not great on defense or offense. Would Oswald Peraza be an upgrade (it seems like he’s adjusted to AAA over the last month and seems like he’d be better defensively)?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In this case, I think given where the Yankees are, Peraza’s not a *huge* upgrade on IKF’s future expectation for 2022

1:00
Vic: Moved from across the street from Loyola Blakefield to Freeland last summer…..Bonkey’s, albeit pricey, is a treasure!  Didn’t you follow a similar path before leaving the state? Scooped up Gunnar off waivers 6 weeks ago and now can keep him late in a draft in 2023,2024, 2025. Will he get SS or 3B in he arrives for good?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I actually grew up a few blocks from Loyola Blakefield — we went to the board of ed to sled when there wasn’t enough snow to make the forest hill at the corner of kenilworth and Charles safe

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I went just over the state line into PA

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Is that out-of-place mansion along york by the border still there?

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Someone built a giant mansion overlooking interestate 83

1:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Here it is

1:09
Bryan: The out of place mansion is still there!

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t sure. Last time I was there I went to brown’s but I got off at Loganville

1:09
szakyl: Re: ZiPS 600. Something like this really helps towards the end of the season when you just see either .1 or .2 WAR for everybody and can’t really differentiate abilities by counting stats.

1:09
Jesse: I thought Logan Gilbert was projected as a No. 2 or 3. Is it possible he’s an ace?

1:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly making his case

1:10
Thunderclap Jackson: If Dangraphs were created what would it contain? What would  a Notgraphs-like universe molded in your image be like?

1:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

1:11
Guest: grammar: *less* WAR or *fewer* WAR? maybe this is for lightning round.

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think less WAR since it’s rarely exactly a whole, countable WAR

1:12
Big Bob: Do you think Jack Flaherty will regain his ’18-19 form?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m starting to grow pessimistic for health reasons

1:12
MilwaukeeBeerJays: Am I missing something or have I just missed you? Where have all the Dan chats gone?

1:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One week I had a work task to finish and then I was off for a few days last week because of COVID

1:13
John: How can I explain the fallacy of the “productive out” which advances a runner at the cost of an out to someone who lacks a math orientation or math skills?

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: In my experience, unsuccessfully

1:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: If they’re a chess player, you can give them one of the crappier gambits

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Productive outs *are* more valuable than normal when run scoring is low

1:14
TomBruno23: No problem, would still host you for a game in Baseball Heaven this summer. Same offer of Impossible White Castle Sliders stands.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Can I have Probable sliders?

1:14
sadtrombone: Helmand is really good. Or at least was, I went something like 12 years ago. Delicious.

1:14
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I still go there probably half the time I’m in baltimore

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My faves are the mashawa and the aushak

1:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And one of the best places in town for properly prepared lamb

1:16
MilwaukeeBeerJays: You know Dan it’s really selfish of you to take time off because of things like “health” and “work”.

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Meg is really good at making sure we have a good work/life balance. She’s super nice at getting me to stop working when I’m sick, I hate not tinkering with things even when I’m “off”

1:17
Ross: Julio Rodriguez is a top __ player in baseball right now?

1:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: hat wearing in my dreams

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to head off for another week

1:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!





Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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formerly matt w
1 month ago

re: Hosmer/Sierra

bottom 10 fWAR since 1946, min. 6500 PA:
Alfredo Griffin -1.0
Tim Foli 6.1
Cookie Rojas 6.7
Don Kessinger 7.9
Dante Bichette 8.9
Deron Johnson 9.7
Ed Brinkman 10.3
Eric Hosmer 10.5
Dave Philley 10.5
Manny Trillo 10.7

Sierra is 16th with 13.9, though in considerably more PA and years than Hosmer. Sierra’s twelfth year was when he started to get cut and seriously lose playing time. The longest career under 1 WAR/season is probably BIll Buckner–even if it’s unfair to count his 1 PA in 1969, Buckner had 21 seasons after that, and Sierra only had 20 seasons because he wasn’t in the majors in 1999. You do have to count that 1 PA season to get Buckner’s 18.8 WAR in 22 seasons under Hosmer’s average so far.

Last edited 1 month ago by formerly matt w
Markmember
1 month ago

Isn’t Doumit like -20 WAR after the fielding changes a couple of years back? Probably only -10 before that.

Markmember
1 month ago
Reply to  Mark

-8.6 in 3400 PAs. I like catchers who can hit even just a little though!