Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/4/20

Dan Szymborski: And welcome to the chat!

Who’s Fabio?: Dan, is it more accurate to say MLB owners are going to lose 4B or MLB owners are going to earn 4B less?

Dan Szymborski: That’s like asking if it’s more accurate to say that I’m the King of Siam or I’m sexier than George Clooney.

Dan Szymborski: Or whoever people are into these days.

BeefLoaf108: Which team does a potential 50 game regular season help the most?

Dan Szymborski: On a general level, the mediocre teams that needed help to make serious playoff runs.

Dan Szymborski: Teams like the Blue Jays, Angels, Rockies, etc.

Dan Szymborski: Keeping it together for 50 games is a lot easier.

Robert: How can we, the fans, keep owners accountable without hurting the players? All the owners care about is their wallets, but hitting them there will just make them roll their problem downhill.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure there’s much you can do except for showing your support.

Dan Szymborski: No players are really pop culture figures with massive non-baseball incomes, so any money you give them will be filtered through owners first.

Who’s Fabio?: If you have any extra time can you help me get a Simpsons character created in the mold of Jay Jaffe?  Jay Jaffe the Taffy King.  He can make cameos similar to Disco Stu.

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the problem: I have no artistic skills, nor do I know anyone who makes The Simpsons!

Dan Szymborski: Jay would look awesome as a Simpsons character though.

Matt: I haven’t found a real answer on this: Do MLB owners have insurance polciws

Matt: I have’s found a real answer on this: Do MLB owners have insurance policies they could collect from because the pandemic? They got to, right?

Dan Szymborski: I am 99% sure that they do not.

Dan Szymborski: Wimbledon is the group most noted for paying for extra insurance.

B: What are the odds that we’ve seen the last baseball game that will be played under the current CBA?

Dan Szymborski: Well against. There’s still 2021!

Dan Szymborski: And if baseball doesn’t have a 2020 or a 2021, MLB might be on its last legs as an entity and will have bigger problems.

Jefferson: The prospect industry has gotten cold on Johnathan India, including fangraphs who has him outside the top 120. But Zips is still a believer. Not sure what my question is. Just tell me Zips is correct?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is correct.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know that, but you asked me to tell you that.

rusty shakleford: dan if I was negotiating something I would simply mandate that the thing I want wins

Dan Szymborski: Always take cash.

Dan Szymborski: Cash buys most things, including wins!

Robert: The whole “owner mandating a 50 game season” is a rubbish threat, isn’t it? Might as well cancel the season if Manfred is dense enough to do that.

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a last resort thing really.

Guest: Read Craig’s piece today. If the 50-game schedule is just a negotiating tactic, fine, whatever. But if owners are doing it simply because they won’t make AS MUCH money as they would would a fuller slate of games, I’m going to have to give serious consideration to no longer spending on MLB.

Dan Szymborski: I honestly suspect it’s a negotiating tactic.

Dbo: At what point is it safe to claim the 2020 WS title for my team?

Dan Szymborski: Do you mean your favorite MLB team or your fantasy team?

Guest: Can you record the Family Matters theme this week? I don’t know why I find these so hilarious, but I do.

Guest: My wife walked in on me listening to the Perfect Strangers one and I didn’t even know where to begin. “It’s a baseball chat… “

Guest: I think it’s the earnest gusto you bring to the theme songs that I find so enjoyable in these dark times.

Dan Szymborski: What crazy person asks for more of these?

LFC Mike: Dan..where are you today percentagewise on if we get baseball? 50/50  70 yes  30 no?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still about 60 yes, 40 no

LFC Mike: Its time for the Dan Szymborski Chili Chat and Baseball Hour. Heeeeerrrrrrrreeeeessssssss Dan!

Dan Szymborski: I have to admit, I found a chili variant in which I approve beans.

Dan Szymborski: I made a chili variant with hot gochujang paste and an oatmeal stout!

Guest: any idea why Effectively Wild hasn’t had a new pod this week? hope everything is ok.

Dan Szymborski: No idea, Dan doesn’t produce that!@

Dbo: Do you have a counter to keep track of the 50 questions?

Dan Szymborski: I may have lied about the number. Remember, in this context, I’m Rob Manfred.

Dbo: What’s your favorite beer? Do you drink sours?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t honestly have a go-to beer that I like above all. Well, maybe Rochefort 10.

Dan Szymborski: and I used to drink a ton of Honey Browns when I was in college.

Dan Szymborski: really until I was 25 or so.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t remember most of 9/11 partially because of Honey Browns. Damon’s in Timonium had all-you-can-eat ribs and $2 Honey Browns for Monday Night Football on 9/10/01 for Broncos Giants (McCaffrey shattered his leg in that game and Williams like that 90 yard punt)

Dan Szymborski: I sleep like a baby the night after a few drinks and I literally slept until noon, ignoring mom’s phone calls.

RK: Hi Dan.  Love today’s subtitle; hope I make the 50. Willie Calhoun is a free agent in my 12-team H2H OBP league, and I’m considering dropping Brian Anderson or Wil Myers for him, but I don’t think I want to.  His Statcast data makes me think last year’s power outburst was flukey, and the Rangers are headed to a more pitcher-friendly park (although most of his homers last year were on the road).  Unlike the other guys, he won’t steal any bases, so it’s all about the homers. Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: OHMAGERD A BASEBALL Q

Dan Szymborski: While I like his power chances long-term, with so much uncertainty (and the unknowns due to his injury), I think I’d go safer this year.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Rangers will be a good offense, so I don’t even expect RBI. It’s like an all HR play and I don’t think he’s good enough for an all HR play in a 12-team league.

hscer: Cash can even buy peanuts.

Dan Szymborski: Explains.

Ben: I just learned that gamers sometimes play for 18+ hours straight. What’s your record?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve probably hit 18 on a game like civilization.

Dan Szymborski: I know my friend Alan did a whole 24 playing Warcraft 2 on my computer.

Dan Szymborski: (Which was fair, I did 18 at least once on the original Civilization on his computer, before I convinced mom on an EVGA monitor/EVGA card for Christmas so I could get it)

Sam: All the baseball stuff is too depressing. Your theme songs bring us joy

Dan Szymborski: https://soundcloud.com/dan-szymborski/family-matters/s-NPult2XaHdZ

Dan Szymborski: By the way, I think you guys are insane for wanting these.

Sam: Also if you’re taking theme song requests I vote for Facts of Life

Morbo: “I have to admit, I found a chili variant in which I approve beans.I made a chili variant with hot gochujang paste and an oatmeal stout!”

Morbo: Dan has been abducted and replaced by lizard people

AKA22: What is the most fun way you foresee a larger roster (29 or whatever they might make it during the shortened season) changing how teams play/manage a baseball game?

Dan Szymborski: If we’re going to have a billion pitching changes, I’d like to see pinch-hitting actually be a thing.

The Stranger: MLB folds, and you are chosen to create a replacement professional baseball league. After imposing strict rules on chili and sandwiches in the clubhouse, how do you structure the ownership of teams and payment of players so that fans can be satisfied with the fundamental fairness of it all and never go through this again?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure *how* to.

Dan Szymborski: If I’m creating a league, I expect to make money. Not outright lying about the state of my finances would be a good start.

Scotty: I know you like talking about The Show’s bullpen moves during your live streams. In Road to the Show, I’m a reliever and I was brought in after the starter got shelled and gave up 10 runs in 5.2 IP to face the opposing team’s pitcher. We were down by 10 then I was then pinch hit for in the bottom of the inning. It was truly unbelievable

Morbo: In approximately 5 mins you could become the king of Siam, at least according to Wikipedia. I’m not sure I know a way to help on the George Clooney front that doesn’t involve permanent disfigurement.

Morbo: If the owners mandate a 50 game season, I would expect the players to strike

Dan Szymborski: Not sure

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Are hot Dougs a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to say no, but I’m slightly worried that’s referencing a sex act I am unfamiliar with.

Guest: I am becoming a chicken.

Guest: I like how you’ve been so adamant about beans not being part of chili that it’s brought up every week, and now all of the sudden you’re like “you know what, beans are ok in chili!” 10/10, would troll again

Dan Szymborski: It’s still terrible! It’s not quite the same as chucking beans into it.

JT: Any predictions for prospect development with this shut down? Will it affect different profiles differently? Will it generally be a blip, or will this derail careers?

Dan Szymborski: I have zero idea, we’re in uncharted territory.

JT: At this point, how does the US have a single Trump supporter left?

Dan Szymborski: In my opinion, 15-20% is as low as anyone with a D or an R next to their name can go, no matter what they do.

LFC Mike: For bad ass theme song give us Hawaii 5-0  for utter insanity     I Dream of Jeannie

Dan Szymborski: You know, if we’re going to do these too long, I’m going to have to actually try.

Dan Szymborski: And it’s going to be depressing, because while trying Dan is better at singing, trying Dan is still awful.

Dan Szymborski: I play a lot of instruments, but I have zero singing voice.

Guest: I prefer the not trying Dan

Dan Szymborski: Me too, it’s way less work.

Dan Szymborski: And between pandemics, baseball strife, peaceful protestors being gassed and beaten, militarization of police, no-platforming goons, hawaiian shirt nazis, anti-capitalist dangerhair kids, and people who want to govern based on a lousy John Lennon song, I’m just *exhausted* in life at the moment.

Dan Szymborski: I’m off Twitter for sure for the time being. It’s just too much.

LFC Mike: Not Trying Dan makes us all look better than we are

hscer: I play no instruments and also have no singing voice.

hscer: how did not-trying Dan find enough trying in him to get where he is today

Dan Szymborski: I accidentally tricked smart people into thinking I was smart, and now I have to maintain my cerebral Potemkin village.

hscer: To be fair, all John Lennon songs are lousy.

hscer: 20% is the accepted minimum support for any proposition https://politics.theonion.com/poll-1-in-5-americans-believe-obama-is-a…

Guest: I think my favorite parts are when you sing the instrumentals

Morbo: Replying to the stranger’s question: I’d like to see the players take more financial control of the teams.

Dbo: How much milk do I put in my coffee where it’s no longer coffee but instead coffee flavored milk?

Dan Szymborski: 20%. It’s the coffee-pareto principle

glt4dc: Apropos of nothing (but this seems to be the time), but of 2 particularly rare events, why have there been more perfect games thrown (23) v. 4-home run games (18)?  Perfect games seem to require more things to go right (100 pitches thrown well v. getting 4 fat pitches), good defense, and a favorable strike zone.  Is this just a matter of small sample size?

Dan Szymborski: I’d argue there’s more of a beneficial luck element with perfect games.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to have lucky homers.

hscer: I, uh…don’t think that’s how Pareto is applied ; p However, I’m sure no more than 20% of the population drinks no less than 80% of the coffee.

Dan Szymborski: coffee-pareto!

Guest: Oh Yoko still brings it hscer

Joe: Have you ever taken a look at the Handbook of Statistical Methods and Analyses in Sports ?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t actually.

Dan Szymborski: Though I think I’d be more interested in some of the stuff in other sports, about which I’m less educated.

Dan Szymborski: I do an obscene amount of data work with baseball. Because I do *everything* myself, even things that have been done by others.

Morbo: The players have a lot more negotiating power than they have exercised especially if the union brought the Minor Leaguers into the union. It would be tumultuous for the sport but I’d like to see them start to exercise it

Dan Szymborski: There are some legal difficulties with simply adding minor leaguers, though I’m not versed enough into reciting them.

Morbo: I would like the players to be able to force certain owners l: ie the wilpons, bob nutting, and potentially John Fisher to sell their teams

Dan Szymborski: That would be fun.

hscer: I suppose Yoko “brings it” more than, say…Billy Ray Cyrus (major points to whoever gets the reference)

Guest: who do you think would be more surprised: your boss checking in on the chat and finding out you’re taking tv show theme song requests and recording them on soundcloud, or the median boss of a person on this chat finding out that we’re participating in a chat and requesting tv theme songs to be sung and listening to them?

Dan Szymborski: I think Dave’s been familiar with me long enough that he wouldn’t be surprised by the whole thing.

I’m sorry for making fun of you: I know your chat picture used to be Andy Reid. Is your new picture Martin Van Buren?

Dan Szymborski: Heh

Dan Szymborski: It’s my picture of how currently weary I am.

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes I feel like I’m the Jake Tapper of baseball nerd writing.

derek: Who do the padres take at 8?

Dan Szymborski: The buzz has been Hassell

Guest: Really enjoyed the Griffey ZiPS what-if. Man, breaking records is hard! Order these in their likelihood to be broken one day: Cal’s Iron Man streak, Bonds career homers, Dimaggio’s hit streak, Nolan Ryan’s no-hitters

Dan Szymborski: From most to least

Dan Szymborski: Bonds, Nolan, DiMag, Cal

The Stranger: I was also wondering what it would look like if teams were owned by their cities, since we all seem to pine for days of the owner motivated by civic pride.

Dan Szymborski: “The Cubs announced they will slash their payroll to $75 million after the 2029 season, because over the last decade they deferred $570 million in salaries to 2030.”

Guest: on MLB The Show, my dynasty team regularly crushes the CPU on “veteran.” However, when I play road to the show on veteran, I’m unable to hit .200 in MLB (but rake in the minors). The game’s just f-ing with me, right?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure why i twould be different.

Dan Szymborski: I track my stats in games and then tinker with the sliders to get to where I want to be.

hscer: We wouldn’t have modern political parties without Martin Van Buren, so…fuck him, I guess.

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t he popularize OK though?

Kevin: If you are the Pirates would you accept option on Archer next year

Dan Szymborski: Not now.

Morbo: Ultimately the players don’t need the owners to play baseball but the owners need the players.

Dan Szymborski: Making a player’s league is hard.

Dan Szymborski: players’ league

Van Buren Boys: take it back, hscer…

Dan Szymborski: There, I changed my avatar to Colonial Dan

The Stranger: So you’re saying basically no change? I want to see somebody run for mayor on a “trade for mike trout” platform.

hscer: I thought I was asked to take the Yoko comment back until I saw the name.

Van Buren Boys: are you going to do an Andruw Jones ZiPS what-if?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure, there are a LOT of guys to choose from!

Kevin: Who’s taking Bitsko in the draft? He’s the teenager pitcher from Pennsylvania

Dan Szymborski: I still think there’ sa chance he goes to college

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, cat turned off the computer

Dan Szymborski: I’m on laptop now

WHAT IFs: Let’s assume the owners and players reach a deal, but one or two owners hold out and refuse to play this year.

1. Which owner(s)/team(s) are holding out?
2. What happens to their players? Don’t play, de-expansion draft, etc?
3. How would you organize a one year de-expansion draft? (order, rules, etc.)

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they actually *can*

Dan Szymborski: Though I could be wrong

Morbo: I acknowledge that it would be difficult but I think, in the long run, it would be better for the sport. Sans creating a players league, one immediate reform I would make to MLB is to change the current commissioner and the commissioner’s roll. The commissioner should be equally responsible to the players and the owners.

Dan Szymborski: Or a new position

Dan Szymborski: It’s not unreasonable for there to be a representative of the owners. That person shouldn’t be the final authority on so many things, however.

Dan Szymborski: And the players haven’t helped in some of the things they agreed to.

Dan Szymborski: Like the domestic violence agreement – the MLBPA should have *insisted* a new, neutral position should be created, not making Manfred the decider.

Van Buren Boys: let’s say you had a time machine and you can access all of FG data for years PRIOR to the year you land on (so you don’t have access to future results). What’s the last year you think you could go back in time and win the world series as the GM of an average MLB team?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I’d be a great GM. It’s also a leadership position.

Dan Szymborski: I’d always be better in an advisory role

AKA22: How high of a WAR could you get a Billy Hamilton type player who was exclusively used as a pinch-runner in a season, if you were managing a team with that goal in mind?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe 2 wins in just the right scenario

Morbo: Haha, and that’s how Dan became Freakazoid

Van Buren Boys: where do you go for vacations, in general? beach? sightseeing? camping?

Dan Szymborski: I like going to beaches

Dan Szymborski: I like the ocean. Diving massive waves is great fun for me.

Dan Szymborski: I abhor camping and I’m not big on typical sightseeing.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I like to do cultural stuff, but just wandering around looking at stuff bores me

Dbo: Stupid work calls are getting in the way of the important thing, like this chat!

Dan Szymborski: Tell your boss I said it was OK

Dan Szymborski: I’m not answering/posting political questions that would set reader against reader.

Magic Kingdome: Is it wrong to think that Bud Selig *might* have handled the current issues better than Manfred, with the idea being that to the owners, Selig was “one of them” and could sway them better than a lawyer guy?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, Selig was terrible in a lot of ways. But at his core, Selig at least cared about and liked baseball.

Jeb: Michael Jordan what if ZiPs, assuming he was drafted out of HS!

Dan Szymborski: I wish, but out of my scope!

Compliments to the chef: Getting disappointed that you have posted at least 3  straight political biases. Not yours. Others.

Dan Szymborski: We all have biases. I don’t like this world in which everyone is balkanized and just hates everyone else.

Morbo: I totally agree the players have collectively hired incompetent representation for the better part of a decade of not longer.

JT: What’s your biggest lifestyle change during the pandemic? I was about to say that I can’t play sports, but I now, I find myself really incapable of listening to conventional music in 3’49” format. I’ve done nothing but stream operas and symphonies for months instead of listening to regular rap, pop, and rock.

Dan Szymborski: My mom keeps showing up at the house, which is driving me nuts.

Dan Szymborski: I live across the street from her. She’s working at home, so she’s always around now. IF she doesn’t have a new hobby when she retires in August, I’m totally moving out of walking distance.

Van Buren Boys: so you think if you went back to, say, 1950 and had access to ALL the WAR data prior to that, that advantage couldn’t overtake the people management/leadership aspects of the role?

Dan Szymborski: No, if I had that, I’m sure that me, or anyone else familiar with modern baseball, could do a very good job

Dan Szymborski: But I try to shy away from questions that seem tailored to me saying how smart and great I am.

The Stranger: Do you think we’ll see more ex-players in ownership, a la Jeter? If so, does that help player-owner relations?

Dan Szymborski: It might on some level.

Guest: You like walking around with your shirt off and wearing a speedo?

Dan Szymborski: Gross

Morbo: The specifics what to do about holdout owners, should be covered in MLB’s constitution. I expect that if there are only a couple hold outs the other owners have the ability to compel the hold outs to play the season

Dan Szymborski: I believe, this is the case.

Dbo: My boss just asked “Who the hell is Dan Szymborski? Get off or your fired!”

Dan Szymborski: Tell them “Dan Szymborski is my new dad. You don’t understand me or my music!”

Van Buren Boys: ooooh what about an Ichiro-ZiPS if he started his career in MLB?

Dan Szymborski: That’s actually on my short to-do list. I would have done this next week, but I just did a Mariners one.

Dbo: I just ran Jordan through my ZiPs model and it said he’s better than Mike Trout and would have a 1.000 batting avg. I think my model is the most accurate

Dan Szymborski: WHY IS MY ZIPS IN YOUR HOUSE

JT: Hate globally, act locally!

Morbo: Dan needs a buffer zone!

Dan’s Mom: Danny! Have you taken your flintstones vitamin yet today? Don’t give me that look, young man! Down the hatch!

JT: He misspelled “chief.”

Dbo: Is coffee flavored ice cream coffee?

Dan Szymborski: No

hscer: Dan, just how smart and great are you?

Adam: How smart and great are you?

Dan Szymborski: Not very.

hscer: “Get off or [you’re] fired!” doesn’t sound like a question to me.

Dan Szymborski: He’s got you there

Compliments to the chef: I am just requesting no overt political posts. You are correct that these set reader against reader.

Dan Szymborski: I think I keep it as mild as possible.

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to not comment at all.

Dan Szymborski: But as someone who tends, apart from generalized philosophy, to centrism and pragmatism, I am increasingly alienated from any of the political flame-theater that has become de rigeur in recent years

Dan Szymborski: Makes me feel at times like I outlived a world in which I recognized. Which seems way more odd at 42 than it would be at 92.

The Stranger: Wouldn’t Ichiro just be the MLB translations of his NPB stats?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but it’s fun!

Guest: re: Mariners don’t want to advertise a competitor, but did you watch Dorktown’s History of the Mariners? It was fantastic (better than the last dance imo) and I wish they’d do one for more teams

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t!

Compliments to the chef: I think you you try to keep politics mild. I think you do post straight political posts that, IMO, belong in a different chat.

Dan Szymborski: I try to answer as many questions and comments as I possibly can.

greg: Cat update please

Dan Szymborski: Well, Constantine has left after turning off my PC. I heard my mom enter my house about 15 minutes ago, so I’m assuming the other three are trying to get her to feed them early.

Dan Szymborski: She feeds my cats early, leaves, and then *I* Have to deal with cats who think they’re getting fed at noon the next day.

Dan Szymborski: She’s also left her car in my driveway, taken mine, and left me a note that her car isn’t working and to bring it ot the mechanic

JT: I do apologize, but I’m hella not mild and I’m hella political.

Dan Szymborski: Nobody needs to apologize for how they feel. I’m just outlining how *I* feel.

BASEBALL SZN: As far as slippers go, are you a slide-on/flip flop style guy or a moccasin style guy?

Dan Szymborski: I like moccasins

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like flip flop

Dan Szymborski: because there’s always a chance you might need to hurry and trying to hurry in flip flops is always a disaster waiting to happen.

Dan Szymborski: I try to stay right next ot beaches and ideally wear nothing to the beach

Dan Szymborski: SHOES that is. I’m clothed at all times.

Dbo: i think we should start referring to Jim Thome and Ken Griffey as White Sox legends

Dan Szymborski: Dodger legend Mookie Betts…

Martin Van Buren: I’m sorry, Dan, I never meant to derail your chat with things like political parties and OK.

Eric C: Should Billy Martin be in the Hall?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Guest: It’s true, political posts do set reader against reader. These chats are so serious and based in real life, that if one (listens to Perfect Strangers theme song again)

Compliments to the chef: BTW, i have an American Curl cat. Sweetest cat ever.

Adam: I name a team and decade, you say the first player that pops into your head.  1980s Brewers, go.

Dan Szymborski: Cooper

Dan Szymborski: I’m too young to remember Cooper with the Red Sox

Dan Szymborski: and Molitor/Yount, I think over longer periods

Dan’s Mom: Danny, I have decided to take your advice and take up a new hobby… demolition derby! My car is in the shop however, I’ll be back around 11!

hscer: What are your top nude beach spots

Dan Szymborski: spitzbergen

Adam: 2000s Blue Jays?

Dan Szymborski: Shannon Stewart

Dbo: Would you ever accept a back office role?

Compliments to the chef: Did 1950s ..”other than ted wiliams…pay any attention to statcast like stuff?  Or spin rates , swgKs on and on? Or just rip it

Dan Szymborski: they didn’t have the data!

Morbo: In their latest murder plot one of Dan’s cats tried to suck him into the internet

hscer: 1899 Spiders

Dan Szymborski: sport mcallister

Adam: 1970s Dodgers

Dan Szymborski: bill russell

AKA22: How many players will miss out on the HOF due to missing most/all of the 2020 season to accrue stats?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think any, but inevitably someone will fall short of a milestone

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to disappear for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me, everyone!