Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/8/23

Dan Szymborski: It is time. A time. For chats.

Dan Szymborski: Or at least once!

B’ryce Szymbobski: EllyD… That is all.

Dan Szymborski: I got a DM from someone really annoyed I referred to him as Ellraiser

Bert: Hey Dan! The Cards, and others, need to give Jordan Walker more time, right? Especially with them being in the cellar.

Dan Szymborski: It was always iffy if this was the year he was going to contribute, he has huge upside, but the short-term was very uncertian

Dan Szymborski: Since the Cardinals need to capture lightning in a bottle to erase the deficit, they need to be going for riskier upside players than they’re normally inclined to

Ted: What are your thoughts on Bobby Witt Jr and his future?  Obviously, still a lot of time to be come the star people thought he would be, but the start to his career has been underwhelming.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not super-worried for a few reasons. One, he’s just turning 23 soon. His defense has improved and his peripheral offensive stats suggest he ought to be hitting more like he was last year than this year

Dan Szymborski: Now, his chances of being a major superstar have probably declined, I still think he’s a good player and could be a very good one

Eh?: Dan, can you simulate a photo of a dugout-clearing brawl but with everyone running onto the field with torches and pitchforks?

Dan Szymborski: We’ll see!

Dipoto: Do you believe mariners as currently constructed can join the WC race assuming a reasonable amount of their players start performing close to projected output

Dan Szymborski: I think they can and will likely be in the WC race.

Dan Szymborski: Not that they can’t improve

Dan Szymborski: I think they really need to be in the market for a DH type

Dan Szymborski: And Pollock’s stuff probably needs to be in a cardboard box at the curb

Dan Szymborski: The rotation has actually moved *up* in our rankings from the start of the year!

Meow: Name the cutest thing your cats do

Dan Szymborski: Probably the presents they give me. The catlets are fighting over a toy golf bag for a couple months now.

Dan Szymborski: Justinian brings it to me and Constantine will come and take it away from me

Dan Szymborski: And Cassiopeia will bring me her hedgehog when she’s hungry

Dan Szymborski:

Danny Boy: How vindicated do you feel with the diamondbacks hot start? ZIPS has been on this beat for a long time. Is anyone more set for regression than perdomo?

Dan Szymborski: I feel pretty good as that was the only over/under I bet this year!

Dan Szymborski: I was definitely talking a lot about them this offseason

Dan Szymborski: and the thing is, they haven’t even gotten particularly fortunate with their young pitching

Guest: how often are the, I guess “priors” updated for the ROS projections on the site (or at least ZiPS)

Dan Szymborski: RoS projections are recalculated every morning. I’m not sure what time

Dan Szymborski: OH y eah, Perdomo’s going to come down a bit

Dan Szymborski: But Gurriel probably will too of course

Dan Szymborski: For a team with such a good record, Arizona’s had a surprising amount of things go wrong

Dan Szymborski: Really, it’s just that their good players have been REALLY good

Guest: What kind of moves should the Giants make? A little bit of both selling and buying?

Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard to say because right now, there are *so* many more buyers than sellers

Dan Szymborski: I mean, you know where the Giants are weak, but it’s hard to really connect the lines until you see more teams fall into sell mode

Freddy Sez: Walk me off the Judge ledge. Anything there possibly with Jake Bauers? Doesn’t it seem a little odd they opted for Mckinney over Florial? Or do they just not want to subject Florial to waivers, ~hoping~ this is more a 2 week thing than 4?

Dan Szymborski: I’d have called up Florial honestly

Dan Szymborski: My tea-reading suggests they want to see more plate discipline improvement from him though

Dan Szymborski: But given how well he’s hit, you have to expect him to be aggressive

Dan Szymborski: I’ve Bauers-skeptical

Dan Szymborski: Though it’s nice that he got the 99 turbo boost in MLB the Show!

Guy Who Asks The Multiple Choice Question: How do you pronounce the word “Pecan”?

a) PEE-can
b) pe-CAN
c) PEE-con
d) pe-CON

Dan Szymborski: None of these

Dan Szymborski: I say puh-CON

Appa Yip Yip: Can you fix Alek Manoah?

Dan Szymborski: Me personally? No

Dan Szymborski: I like to think I’m a very good analyst, but I’m not a pitching coach

Dan Szymborski: If he wants help playing Hearthstone or something I could help him

B’ryce Szymbobski: What’s up with Sandy Alcantra? Is he gonna bounce back to form?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll be fine, but 2022 was not his baseline, which I keep trying to tell people!

Dan Szymborski: I mean, his FIP is around where it typically is

Dan Szymborski: Here’s what I wrote about him in March

Dan Szymborski: Alcantara is still likely to be one of the better pitchers in the league, and ZiPS certainly likes him, placing him among the leaders in WAR. But ZiPS is explicitly not trying to take into account rule changes, and I think Alcantara is one of the pitchers with the most significant chances to be affected by them. That’s a common theme among several of my bust picks this year, simply because this year, it’s something that causes additional uncertainty.
In this case, Alcantara, by far, had more groundballs hit into shifts than any pitcher in baseball in 2022, with 166; only seven other pitchers were above 100. I still think he’ll be a really good pitcher, but I expect his platoon splits will rise farther than ZiPS does, and before remaining confident he’s in ultra-elite territory, I want to make sure that the changeups that lefties facing Alcantara drive into the ground aren’t sneaking through at high rates.

Dan Szymborski: (in the pitcher busts piece)

Jeff: How much better of a prospect is Elly than Oneil Cruz was when he was initially called up?

Dan Szymborski: I’d say *slightly* better?

Dan Szymborski: They’re both excellent prospects at callup

That Hotel Room in Skydome Yes That One: Which AL East team is built best for the playoffs (as currently constructed)?

Dan Szymborski: Relative to their record, probably the Jays

Dan Szymborski: their talent is quite concentrated in their frontline players

Dan Szymborski: The Rays have the amazing depth, the Yankees have all sorts of injury questions, the Orioles would still likely go into most playoff games with the weaker starting pitcher

JC: How does Kershaw get that much break on his curve with low spin?

Dan Szymborski: Ah, you probably want more of a mechanics specialist for this!

Dan Szymborski: For his 12-6, I’m sure his arm slot and release point have a lot to do with it

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if he’s still doing it this way, but he at least used to use his middle finger on the *rim* of the seam rather than on the seam squarely

James: So the Astros rotation currently feautres JP France, Brandon Bielak and Ronel Blanco and they still lead the league in ERA. What is their secret?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t expect these guys to continue beating their peripherals by so much

Domingo: First it was “on a heater”. Now it’s “celly”. The people DEMAND better.

That Hotel Room in Skydome Yes That One: Which left for dead players do you (and ZiPS) think still has a lot of life in them?

Dan Szymborski: I still think there’s a chance Abreu turns it around!

Old for my Age: Jack Suwinski is on a 500-AB pace for 34HR/18SB. Is he worth rostering in a H2H league or are the low avg, o-fers, and days off too much of a headache? Do you see him improving to the point of being a must-roster player or will the Pirates move on from him fairly soon?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll fall off *that* pace a bit

Dan Szymborski: But the Pirates aren’t likely to move on

Dan Szymborski: I think in most leagues, he’s a useful second-tier talent

Cito’s mustache: Really enjoy the chats.  Would you rather bet on production from Correa, Perdomo, or Rosario ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Still Correa

Sharp: Marcell Ozuna can hit? Shocking that a player with thousands of plate appearances logged of good performance would all of the sudden be a good hitter /s

Dan Szymborski: In fairness, he was pretty awful the last two years

Sandwich Enthusiast: Why are projections seemingly so much higher on Rowdy Tellez than he’s shown? He seems thoroughly replaceable this year

Dan Szymborski: Hardly THAT much higher.

Dan Szymborski: 105 wRC+ vs. the 123 depth chart projection at the start of the year is an underperformance, but hardly a shocking one

Dan Szymborski: It’s not Bellinger a couple years ago!

Dan Szymborski: and the depth chart’s down to only 9 points of wRC+ over season to date

Dan Szymborski: A 105 wRC+ was his 30th percentile projection in ZiPS at the start of the season

Sandwich Enthusiast: Is Trea Turner back or was that just the Tigers bump?

Dan Szymborski: Given his history and age, I think he’ll be fine

Greg from Cincy: Imagine if the Reds would reconfig GABP to make the Outfield Coors sized and move Elly to CF…
I’d love to see him covering massive amounts of ground and firing lasers to nab fools!

To my ?…
What’s an appropriate sample to recognize reral change when loking at an in-season adjustment, such as the increased walk rates for EDLC and CES the past month?

Dan Szymborski: It always depends on the number of PA *and* the magnitude

Dan Szymborski: Now, if you’re asking when in-season a change becomes *as* predictive as the projection

Dan Szymborski: for hitters, K/PA in 65 PA, 153 PA for HR, but 475 PA for singles per balls in play!

Snakey: How long before we can consider the Dbacks a legit contender to the Dbacks?

Dan Szymborski: They’re definitely legitimate contenders when playing themselves!

Vladdy: Where has my power gone?

Dan Szymborski: Not worried. Still hitting the ball in the air, still hitting the ball hard

Dan Szymborski: You ought to see some Vlad on Hitters zStast tomorrow mornign

Who’s Fabio: Can I request a Boba Chette GIF viewing party this week?  I think last week you were short on time but Bo is still mashing the ball.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what I’m supposed to do!

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: From earlier

Dan Szymborski:

cortezthakillah: Alejandro Kirk or Gary Sanchez ?

Dan Szymborski: Still Kirk!

Royals pit of despair: So which is worse: The A’s are losing games at an historic pace, but are trying to be bad. The Royals are also losing games at an historic pace, but thought they’d be better this year. At least one team is seeing things go according to plan.

Dan Szymborski: See, if you’re going to be awful, be AMAZING at it. The A’s are

Dan Szymborski: The A’s could lose 120 games

Dan Szymborski: Nobody’s going to remember most of these Royals

Dan Szymborski: And it’s too bad that Quatraro is probably the sacrificial lamb that gets blamed by the org

SJ: The Rangers effectively acquired Heim, Garcia, and Lowe for two 45ish prospects, Elvis Andrus, and cash considerations. Seems like a pretty good deal.

Al Bundy: What team has been the worst underperformer relative to their ZiPS projected record, historically?  Are the 2023 Cardinals at risk of taking that crown?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, 2021 Giants

Dan Szymborski: oih wait

Dan Szymborski: other way around

Dan Szymborski: hang on

Big Jeff Pfeffer: People in Kansas City are so stockholm-syndromed to bad old school managers that some are saying they’d rather have Matheny than Quatrato

Dan Szymborski: 2018 Orioles at -30, 2017 Giants at -24, 2005 Dodgers at -23, and then five teams at -21: 2019 Tigers, 2014 Rangers, 2012 Rockies, 2009 Mets, 2008 Padres

Well-Beered Englishman: Thanks all for the Baltimore recommendations! We went to Faidley’s for crab cakes straight off the plane, hit up Attman’s Deli and the Mount Royal Tavern, and whacked a bunch of crabs with mallets. Didn’t get to try a Chaps pit beef so I’m making plans to go back. Cool city. Wish the O’s had been in town.

Dan Szymborski: Glad you had fun

Dan Szymborski: JFC you guys have asked a lot of questions

Dan Szymborski: This is going to be one of my worst chats for answer rate

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to have to stop answering ones that I have to check data on!

Jerry: As an Astros fan how concerned should I be that the Rangers are on the pace they’re on?  Is it sustainable?  Should we be looking at the Wild Card race already?

Dan Szymborski: Should be concerned. We’re going to be at the halfway point in a couple weeks

No name: What do you think about the reaction feature in chat? I feel like it negatively affects the mobile experience

Dan Szymborski: Oh, I always leave it on because I like to give you guys as much freedom as possible

Steve O: How real is Jake Bauers? He’s got the best batted ball data of his career, but the sample is still quite small. The Yankees are going to need someone to step up while Judge is out.

Dan Szymborski: Still skeptical

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Dan, you got to move. It can’t be in the same state where you live now, any state where you lived previously, or any bordering state of where you live now or have lived.  Where do you move?

Dan Szymborski: New Hampshire

Dan Szymborski: or Colorado

Chickie: Is that trio OF in Miami of Soler, DLC and Sweet Jesus remotely reminiscent of the former of Stanton, Ozuna and Yelich?

Dan Szymborski: Soler kind of odd man out long term

Dan Szymborski:

JK: Can you help me understand 90th percentile EV a little better and its significance?

Dan Szymborski: It’s like max EV but 90th percentile means you’re eliminating some outliers

Ugh: Are the Cubs really this bad? Spending $300m to be just as bad as last year? And even “prospect” fans and cubs media tell me will be a guy isn’t even bench worthy. The org feels like its in disarray. Total dumpster fire.

Dan Szymborski: They’re a 50ish team playing poorly now after playing very well in April

Jason: Has this season affected your outlook on Corbin Carroll?

Dan Szymborski: No, I already thought he was often

brooklyngail: My 14-year-old cat often walks through the house carrying a sock in her mouth and meowing loudly. What does it mean?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t necessarily mean anything

Dan Szymborski: but if it’s a change in behavior, that’s a good reason for checkup

TooDamnTall: Have badly have humidors messed up park factors, on a scale of 1 to blueberries.

Dan Szymborski: bessemer process

FroYo: I’m on a work call that’s totally distracting me from your chat…God help me!

Ugh: Why are FOs still bad when there are analysts using publicly available data that could tell you why what a FO is doing is not a good idea?

Dan Szymborski: Decision-making is complex and getting data from a computer screen to a plan of action isn’t always easy

D: Thoughts on the Hearthstone meta now that there’s been a little time since the mini-set?

Dan Szymborski: haven’t played much constructed

Devil Ray Jay Johnson: agree it’s “puh-CON” except it is always “PEE-can” pie

Daniel L: Do you blame AJ Preller for the failure of the Padres? This isn’t the first time he’s constructed a roster that has performed well below expectations? Or is it on the players?

Dan Szymborski: The thing was, the first go back in 2017/2018 range shouldn’t have worked

Dan Szymborski: but this one works

Dan Szymborski: it’s hard to blame him in this case for the players that have sucked

Dan Szymborski: Which also makes it really frigging hard to fix

Chip: I am looking at ZIPS 24 and 25 projections on KeBrayan Hayes and they’re…underwhelming. Why do you think a guy who purportedly has a 60 hit tool is such a bad hitter?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has always been skeptical about his offense

Frank Thomas the Tank Engine: Dan, can you simulate a photo of a dugout-clearing brawl but with everyone running onto the field in tutus and with feathers?

Appa Yip Yip: Is Kevin Gausman the best FA pitcher signing in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: Looking like it

Joe Fan: Why do you hate my team?

Dan Szymborski: My job is to crush joy

Kyle: A baseball-sized radioactive meteor is headed to earth and will end civilization if it hits the ground in one piece but is harmless if it’s broken up before impact. The meteor is 475 feet from home plate and hovering right off the ground. Which three hitters would you pick to hit a baseball to it?

Dan Szymborski: Judge, Soto, Alvarez

Appa Yip Yip: Why is the sandwich enthusiast being mean to rowdy he’s just a big fluffy boy who deserves the world

Eric: Do you think Encarnacion Strand is worth stashing even if he can’t be moved to minors slot and thus my team would be missing at bats?

Dan Szymborski: Not a bench?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be up soon

Dan Szymborski: if you’re behind int eh standings by a lot, I might take the risk because of the upside

Appa Yip Yip: The Jays can obviously afford both but if you had to choose to lock up Vlad or Bo long term which would you pick?

Dan Szymborski: Boba Chette

Guest: “Corbin Carroll is often” – Dan Symborski

Dan Szymborski: For some reason, I typed awesome as often

Dan Szymborski: This kind of thing has increased in the last five or six years as I age

Guest: After roughly how many PAs do rate states like Chase%, Contact%, etc. tend to stabilize?

Dan Szymborski: Fewer!

Dan Szymborski: Under a hundred

Chip: Real men pronounce it ‘PUH-con’

Meow sock question: I didn’t see the word “cat” in the sock meow question and thought somebody’s 14-year old kid was doing that. Definitely would have been a reason for a check up

Guest: Have to drop one of Freddy Peralta, Bibee, Paxton or Mitch Keller.  Who would be your choice?

Dan Szymborski: Paxton, though I think you can trade him

Dan Szymborski: Let someone else need him to stay healthy!

FroYo: Are you going to do another article about ZIPs breakouts from the Future’s Game again this year?!?  Was really helpful last.  Thank you!

Dan Szymborski: I usually do, so I probably will again!

Guest: If you were a betting man, do you think Jacob deGrom comes back as a very good pitcher after TJ surgery? I know the unknowns are huge.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a little squeamish for a TJ redux

Guest: are players with less experience more likely to reach 20th or 80th percentile projected performance, or is the range simply wider?

Dan Szymborski: Remember, 20th/80th percentiles are already the popularity!

Dan Szymborski: errr

Dan Szymborski: probability

Dan Szymborski: see what I mean? Szym approaching 45 substitutes way more wrong words than Szym approaching 25

Dan Szymborski: Which really annoys me.

CFH: Dan, do you think Ohtani could play the field and just make his throws left handed? That seems less difficult to learn than other things he does successfully

Dan Szymborski: That would be amusing

Steve O: Astros secret: Having one fake team in their division + Mariners/Angels.

Speaking of socks: Is it bad that a keep having a dream where my Vlad Guerrero themed socks keep coming to life and Vlad softly nibbles on my ankle?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it is time for me to depart for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone!