Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/29/15

Dan Szymborski: I am here. Chat has begun. I need to expel some urine before we start, so please fill up the chat with some valuable questions.

Dan Szymborski: If I come back and there are 8 questions “Pick 4 players from my fantasy team to keep” I will be very disappointed and there may be punitive results.

Comment From RotoLando
Is this the 5:00 Free Crack Giveaway?

Dan Szymborski: No, because I am in Eastern time zone.

Dan Szymborski: Even if I were to be giving away crack — which I am not — this would be the noon giveaway.

Dan Szymborski: And given my round, beer-inflated stomach, it ought to be clear that I am not a user of crack or cocaine.

Dan Szymborski: First, we have other business.

:

:

Dan Szymborski: Last battle for the Elite Eight.

Comment From Cincinnati Kid
Do the Reds get more value trading Chapman & Cueto together or separately? Is there a precedence for a trade involving an elite closer AND a Top 10 SP in the same trade?

Dan Szymborski: Separately, I believe. Bundling them simply reduces the teams for which it makes sense.

Dan Szymborski: And I do not know one off-hand, but I could have missed one.

Comment From hscer
an inverse relationship between queue and bladder contents

Comment From Jesse
Are you in on Taijuan yet? Out on Sabathia? CC’s FIP still looks decent.

Dan Szymborski: I’m getting there. If he hadn’t shown occasional flashes of brillance before that were fleeting, he would’ve gotten into my Top 25 under 25 list.

Comment From Jeff
Thoughts on Ian Desmond?

Dan Szymborski: Ian Desmond is the starting shortstop of the Washington Nationals.

Comment From Total Clown
Which player do you and Zips disagree on the most? What do you think are the reasons behind the disagreement?

Dan Szymborski: On a yearly basis, David Wright. I always like Wright more than ZiPS. Not sure why.

Dan Szymborski: I also have generally liked Ivan Nova more than ZiPS has.

Comment From Jeff Lunhow
Is Domingo Santana a fair return for Scott Kazmir?

Dan Szymborski: The A’s can’t expect any more than that.

Comment From RotoLando
Give me a reason to keep Mike Napoli for the rest of the year? OK, two reasons.

Dan Szymborski: Well, nobody wanting to trade for him would be a valid reason to not trade him.

Dan Szymborski: The Red Sox do need a moderate retooling right now. Even if you think the 2015 team will play decently the rest of the way, being 7 or more games behind *4* teams is way, way worse than being a 2nd place team that’s 7 games back

Comment From Maxamuz
I’m going to be upset if Matz goes to Colorado to die.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a pretty area.

Dan Szymborski: I’d rather day in Colorado than New Jersey

Comment From hscer
Pick 4 players from my fantasy team to keep

Comment From disappointed
What parts do the Reds finally sell off? Who’s left?

Dan Szymborski: I think the Reds dither and outside of Cueto, don’t do much.

Comment From jocephus
hi

Dan Szymborski: Yo

Comment From Travis
Saw that the Mariners have 8% playoff odds. I

Dan Szymborski: I did too!

Comment From Josh G
Has Roberto Osuna shown enough to make Toronto comfortable with him as the closer ROS?

Dan Szymborski: I think so. There was an unbelievably amount of risk coming into the season given that he never played above high-A ball, but he’s been legitimately excellent this eason

Comment From Maxamuz

This gif makes me laugh.

Comment From Dongwrangler
Is it technically feasible to put together a trade package for Trout? What would such a thing look like?

Dan Szymborski: Something like this.

https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Comment From Maxamuz
I hate that I have some sort of hope for Desmond now. I want to hate him, I really do.

Comment From Kris
Correa 2nd best SS in baseball right now?

Dan Szymborski: I’d still say Simmons. The most interesting is him versus Peralta, It hink

Comment From Blue Cat
meow. meow meow. prrrrr. bang bang bang. bang bang bang. “hungree, need food”

Dan Szymborski: That’s what it was like when I was in the laundry room, hiding from my cat so I could eat roast beef in peace

Dan Szymborski: Though he doesn’t meow. Mostly just door smashing. If you’re face to face, he’ll give you this shockingly low pitched (for a cat) meh that sounds almost like a duck, but other than that there’s very little meowing from galileo

Dan Szymborski: The others meow, but they don’t try to take my food

Comment From Melvin Uptons Contract
If you had to choose between Alexi Amarista and a warm, wet bag of wool to be your starting shortstop, who do you take? Can we get ZiPS projections on the bag of wool?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have to pay wool half a million bucks

Comment From Maxamuz
How about that Arenado fella?

Dan Szymborski: He is a very good baseball player.

Comment From Ozzie
When is Olivera coming up?

Dan Szymborski: Not till after the All-Star Break at least, possibly later given his hammy

Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible the team waits until september

Comment From Cincinnati Kid
Can the Dodgers re-nogotiate with Guerrero on his contract stipulation? It seems like he would want to play 5-6 days of the week instead of being in position/platoon splits

Dan Szymborski: Anything can be negotiated, so long as the new thing isn’t one of the verboten things (like stat-based contract clauses)

Dan Szymborski: Oops, the cat one was off-topic. Still saving off-topic Qs for Lightning Round. Best to save them though

Comment From Josh G
Is a turnaround for Lucroy coming?

Dan Szymborski: He’s too good to not be OK

Comment From Maxamuz
EST is the best.

Dan Szymborski: East coast represent.

Comment From Travis
‘Whoops, cut off early. I saw the Mariners have 8% playoff odds now – I’m hoping they tank and gut their front office. If we are so lucky to have a competent GM come in mid-season, who could we sell for any sort of value?

Dan Szymborski: The mariners are a tough team to trade.

Dan Szymborski: Most of the guys teams actually want are in a situation in which they’d be around for a retooled M’s team

Dan Szymborski: Except Nelson Cruz

Comment From mtsw
So can we start the “do projections systematically underrate the Orioles” discussion yet or do they need to be in first for more than 24 hours?

Dan Szymborski: Just ran ZiPS this morning and had the O’s tied for the lead end-of-season with the highest divisional probs (by a hair thougH)

Comment From JayKay
I don’t have a fantasy team, but if I had one, who should I keep from Trout, Kershaw, Goldschmidt, Archer and Infante. I mean, it seems like Infante is the obvious choice, but he looks like an all-star this year. Please advise.

Dan Szymborski: Omar Infante obviously.

Comment From Sirras
So it looks like Steven isn’t a doorMatz, huh?

Dan Szymborski: Banned and reported to police. You’re going to prison.

Comment From Cincinnati Kid
Does Semien rebound? His June was terrible…any positive signs going forward?

Dan Szymborski: His season line is essentially his projected line now. a .720ish OPS hitter who is miscast as a SS

Comment From Northsider
How phucking phunny will it be if the Phillies phail with MacPhail as team President?

Comment From ScottNY
Could the be the best-hitting rookie class we have ever seen?

Dan Szymborski: Looking damn good

Dan Szymborski: But I actually have an article idea on this subject sorta, so not saying more

Comment From Ben
There has a lot of talk about the NL ROY race, but who do you think wins in the AL?

Dan Szymborski: Travis

Dan Szymborski: He’s come down a bit, but it’s a less than enthralling ROY race

Comment From Sirras
Brewers are supposedly not particularly interested in trading Segura. Rational or irrational?

Dan Szymborski: Irrational

Comment From Scrapper
I know that ZIPS has always been high on Arismendy Alcantara (CHC) but he seems to be a forgotten guy at the moment. Has Arismendy’s good (not great) performance back in AAA changed ZIPS’ long-term projection for him?

Dan Szymborski: Havent checked up on his long-term recently

Comment From Josh G
Do you buy DJ LeMahieu’s newfound patience at the plate? Can he keep up this current pace?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think his season is all that outlandish. A few more walks, but ZiPS has thought he had .300 potential for awhile

Comment From Cream
Ignoring the Walden/Jenkins piece, where do you stand on the Heyward / Miller trade now (in hindsight land)? Do you think one side will come out significantly better as a result?

Comment From Dan
How crazy is Ruddy Giron’s season so far? Going from like a .400 OPS in tookie ball to the best OPS+ in the Midwest league as the youngest player and a shortstop to boot? Can you think of any good comps for such a jump in the low-minors recently?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty crazy, but I can’t think of a great comp off-hand.

Dan Szymborski: Oops, didn’t answer the last Q

Dan Szymborski: I thought at the time it was fair. It was looking pretty one-sided but Heyward’s been legitimately excellent for the last month or so

Dan Szymborski: I’d still tilt it to the Braves a bit – Heyward at 5-6 WAR is a better one-year hole fill-in than 4 WAR.

Dan Szymborski: Though it’s looking like one win or two wins may not actually matter at all (though Cards wouldn’t know that going into the season)

Comment From RotoLando
Holy crap, I never realized Grant was so small. Ha ha, hey Grant-y *tousles hair*

Dan Szymborski: Everybody was small before Egg McMuffins were invented

Comment From ScottNY
Why does FG still expect the Red Sox to have the best record in the AL going forward?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t hate the Red Sox going forward and Steamer likes them a little more, I believe (simply because the projection I get for Red Sox forward is lower than the FG Steam+Estimated ZiPS they do)

Comment From Hoff
Are you as pissed as I am about the Royals’ fans stuffing the ballots? I have even gone as far as to vote as much as possible for anyone BUT a Royal.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit obnoxious. Last time this happened, the fans lost he vote for a decade.

Comment From Mike
Dan, if for some reason in real baseball you have to choose between Joey Gallo and Kevin Pillar for CF, who would you pick?

Dan Szymborski: Pillar

Comment From hscer
Lincoln now second-guessing his 1864 win because it denies him a chance at beating up George McClellan. Seriously though, this a rough matchup. But, an easy choice: Lincoln on account of size and experience.

Comment From Jeff
Do you think there will be any big unexpected trades this trade deadline (Goldy, Abreu, Sale, Gray, Kluber, Votto, Freeman, Teheran, ect) ?

Dan Szymborski: There could be, though I couldn’t name who (else it wouldn’t be unexpected!). There are a lot more buyers than sellers, so the prices could go high enough due to the competition tha tsomeone *really* unexpected gets traded.

Dan Szymborski: Now, I just said I can’t name someone who is unexpected, but I think if the Tigers are still around .500 in a month, they trade Price.

Comment From Scrapper
What will you do to fill the void left by no more Game of Thrones over the next year (besides scouring the internet for photos of Natalie Dormer)?

Dan Szymborski: Why do I have to do more than scour the internet for photos of Natalie Dormer?

Dan Szymborski: Ah, that smirk

Comment From Lars
I’ve spent two years trading my elite pitchers for elite hitters in fantasy because I’m tired of pitchers getting hurt all the time. This year all my hitters are hurt. Is that a dumb strategy?

Dan Szymborski: Sounds a bit too rigid for my liking

Comment From Kristian
the cubs definitely need starting pitching help but could you also see them pursuing an outfield bat? maybe someone cheap like marlon byrd. the offense has been non-existant the last couple weeks

Dan Szymborski: I can totally see them getting a second or third tier OF fill-in

Comment From mtsw
Marlins look like even more obvious sellers after losing Stanton. Should they sell or hold Carter Capps? Presumably they could get an even better return than the Red Sox got for Miller due to Capps additional years of team control, but maybe that means they should hold him?

Dan Szymborski: I’d hang onto Capps, simply because as good as he’s been, he doesn’t have Proven Magical Closer yet.

Comment From RotoLando
Going one further, why don’t we ever see a complete package: A pitcher, his catcher, and a 7th-inning guy, an 8th-inning guy, and a closer? It would be the Mr. Beer of pitching setups

Dan Szymborski: I’m surprised Ausmus hasn’t thought to do that

Comment From Hulkamaniac
U.S. Grant is literally named after the country and anybody voting against this country needs to GET OUT IMO

Comment From john
Does ZIPS like Matz to be a #1 starter in the long term? Where would you rank him among the Mets bevy of young pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: Fairly close. I did a Top 25 pitchers under 25 that talks about Matz.

Comment From Flambingo
Would it make sense to hold Fernandez back? It’s not like the Marlins are going to make a run, especially without Stanton.

Dan Szymborski: You kinda want to see where he is against MLB hitters, but I’d probably go very easy on him.

Comment From Maxamuz

Thoughts on the new HR Derby format?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not terrible. The thing is, I don’t tend to get all that excited about the HR derby

Comment From Jim
Who puts up more career WAR: Taijuan or Paxton?

Dan Szymborski: Walker

Comment From Scrapper
I keep fighting with my friend about the Orioles’ handling of Kevin Gausman. From a distance it seems like the O’s have been way too slow to just let the man pitch or is there more to it?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been inconsistent, but it’s hard to get into a rhythm when your role and level seem to be decided in a completely arbitrary fashion from week-to-week

Comment From mtsw
Sandberg out as manager in Philly and Andy McPhail in as team President. Have we reached the “Hitler in the bunker” stage of the Ruben Amaro administration?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, like you’re going to get me to compare Amaro to Hitler and end up on Deadspin

Dan Szymborski: Can I just say Hood in Atlanta or something?

Comment From Tom
From London to Taijuan

Comment From Drew
What would it take for the Angels to get Todd Frazier?

Dan Szymborski: A lot – I dont’ think the Angels have a logical package for him

Dan Szymborski: The REds are likely to be more resistant at taking offers for Frazier than they should be

Comment From Scrapper
Javier Baez (Cubs) for Steven Matz (NYM): who says no?

Dan Szymborski: Mets should, I think.

Comment From Kevin
In terms of filthy pitches that should get more credit, how nasty is Zach Britton’s 97mph sinker? I feel like I’ve never seen anyone throw a sinker that hard, that well.

Dan Szymborski: Quite nasty

Comment From The famous singer, Rob Stewart
Who finishes the year with more home runs: Carlos Correa or Kris Bryant?

Dan Szymborski: Bryant

Dan Szymborski: Sweet jesus guys, SCOTUS questions? Why would you ask these of a non-lawyer baseball writer who very rarely even hints at politics online?

Dan Szymborski: I will respect the rules of the Lightning Round and answer them, but if there are legal holes in my opinion, remember, I AM NOT A LAWYER!

Dan Szymborski: rassenfrassen

Comment From Mike Honcho
Do you know of any research that has been done on run differential as a percentage? I know a lot of the statistical community has back away from run differential in the last couple years, but it seems to me that viewing it as a percentage (ie the Cardinals’ +98 run differential has resulted in them outscoring their opposition by 46% compared to only 26% for Toronto’s +88) might make it a more useful stat.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen any looking at this appraoach

Dan Szymborski: I don’t expect it to yield that much of interest

Comment From Scrapper
Can you name a player or two whose ZIPS’ projection for the rest of the season has changed the most dramatically from the beginning of the season?

Dan Szymborski: Most likely in my midseason packages

Comment From Danny Tanner
Who would lose the least if Matt Kemp and Robinson Cano arm wrestled?

Dan Szymborski: Cano would win. Kemp’s back might fail.

Comment From hello daniel
is there a version of the base-out run value table which includes ball-strike count?

Dan Szymborski: I do not believe so.

Comment From Vic
Need to replace Stanton in a 15 teamer….my options include Joey Butler, Chris Young, Chris Parmalee, and Wil Venable. Only allowed one more add/drop…..any strong preference?

Dan Szymborski: See, I wouldn’t normally say Parmalee, but the O’s seem to have this hilariously good fortune at picking up random journeymen and getting one big power season from them

Comment From Scrapper
Best guess for how many years and total $ Jason Heyward gets in the offseason?

Dan Szymborski: Less than people think. I think there are limits to what people will pay for corner outfield defense.

Dan Szymborski: He doesn’t hit 9 figures, I don’t think

Dan Szymborski: I’d expect something along Sandoval’s line

Comment From Vic
Or? Leave the spot vacant and wait for Khris Davis to return?

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably do that

Comment From Rick
Lincoln slays Vampires … not a fair fight

Dan Szymborski: Only real braling skills count

Comment From Marwin
On the one hand, I generally have to think that it’s always a good idea to trade with Dave Stewart. I also don’t think that the package given up for Trumbo was too worrisome. Still though… what was Jack Z thinking?

Dan Szymborski: I would hope that I can’t think what Jack Z is thinking

Comment From mapsamountainrange
A batter with a strong platoon split is facing a pitcher with a strong, opposite platoon split – Is it a wash or is one split generally more predictive than the other?

Dan Szymborski: It depends on the sample size really – people far, far overrate platoon splits that differ from generic platoon splits over even pretty solid samples

Comment From Matt
Is the “wait until the deadline” narrative legitimate? Don’t teams get more value if they trade their guys now?

Dan Szymborski: It depends. In some cases, you’re not sure if the 1 WAR is relevant, so you kinda hvae to balance the time you get and the uncertainty

Comment From Jagger
How much does this season effect Jordan Zimmermann’s FA market next year? Higher ERA, more hits, less strikouts, ect. Think he gets somewhere around 100mil or 150mil if he pitches like this for the remainer of the season?

Dan Szymborski: Just off the cuff, I can see him being around 130

Comment From laxtonto
Is there a better way to model early vs later season player variation? It seems that as the season gets closer to the end there is more knowledge of what does and doesn’t work and therefore it would have a legitimate impact on late season projections

Dan Szymborski: Bette rthan what? I’m not sure I get the Q

Comment From MSW
What’s more important for the Mets to fix, their offense or defense?

Dan Szymborski: Ownership

Comment From Jagger
How much trade value does Buchholz have? When hes on he’s a TOR pitcher and has 2 reasonable team options for 2016 an 2017.

Dan Szymborski: He has pretty decent trade value, but no crazy package.

Comment From Scrapper
Better long-term prospect: T. Walker or K. Gausman?

Dan Szymborski: Still think Gausman

Comment From Hoff
What’s up with James Shields? I think all of us pegged him to get better moving to NL & Petco. How does one have career highs in HRs and Ks in the same year? I have heard whispers that Derek Norris is not a pitcher favorite…

Dan Szymborski: His season has been weird. Lots of weirdness.

Comment From Beetlejuice Beetlejuice Beetlejuice!
Who do you think will be better over the next three years: Kris Bryant or Manny Machado?

Dan Szymborski: Machado and I’m a guy who loves Bryant

Comment From Maxamuz
What is Orbit (Houston Mascot) doing here…?

Comment From RotoLando
What do think Devon Travis does the rest of the season? How much was a hot start versus true talent level?

Dan Szymborski: I think he was above his head, but the AL ROY crop is meh.

Comment From Scrapper
Given the Cubs’ position as a wild card contender but an unlikely division winner, it seems like the Cubs will likely be a “soft” buyer but will not give up any of their key prospects since the Cubs are unlikely to be a serious World Series contender at the end of the season. Agree or disagree?

Dan Szymborski: Agree

Dan Szymborski: I like the questions I can give an answer to in five second. BEN

Comment From Mike
Is there any chance JD Martinez keeps up his current pace? How does ZiPS treat a guy who made this big of an improvement changing teams?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has upped his projection significantly as he’s hit better – have never found an actual measurable effect from switching teams

Comment From Phillieshopeful
What’s a realistic return for Ben Revere? He’s clearly limited in what he can do, but does several things well and would fit in a lineup like the Angels perfectly. Something like Delgado and Rhoades make sense, or should the Phillies be shooting higher or lower?

Dan Szymborski: 3rd tier prospect

Comment From laxtonto
Hmm.. would it be easier to model being 3 o r4 teams behind in the standings using rank statistics or to try to predict every possible outcome of each game via stimulation.. one would try to assume a consistent variation and the other would be saddled with the inability to readily predict the inputs

Dan Szymborski: I prefer simulations given the number of variables you’re working with. Rank statistics you’ll just end up with a very generic projection that doesn’t have many strengths

Comment From Jon Jay-so
Do you think it’s better to be an Athletics fan because you know that your team is competently run or worse because you’ll never have the payroll to compete and all your favorite players will be traded before July 31 every year?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s better becuas ethe A’s *do* have good season and when they aren’t, the team won’t generally obstinately refuse to change course

Comment From GOLEAFSGO
Is Matt Boyd in cy young contendership yet?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me smack you

Comment From hscer
I am disappointed that “crashing less” is not #1 on this list http://bigstory.ap.org/arti…

Comment From Dan
Odds that Julio Urias is the Dodgers’ 4th best (or better) organizational SP right now? Odds that he is by September? Odds that translates to major league innings by then?

Dan Szymborski: Very good, very good, 50/50. I think the Dodgers may have to go back on their promises to not call him up.

Comment From Kevin
Do you think Ned Yost ever swaps Wade Davis and Greg Holland role wise? I know Holland is a fine closer, but Wade Davis is unbelievably good.

Dan Szymborski: I think Wade Davis has to demonstrate he’s significantly better beyond reasonable doubt, not just by a preponderance of the evidence

Comment From hscer
Olivera came up just then, in this chat

Comment From Scrapper
Do you expect Kyle Schwarber to be as good a hitter in the majors as Kris Bryant?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From BLC
Dan, is the split finger/forkball a less thrown pitch than ever before? Or is this pitch now considered a changeup instead.

Dan Szymborski: Pitch classifications are fairly fluid

Dan Szymborski: You don’t see a lot of pure forkballs as it’s a harder pitcher to control

Dan Szymborski: forkballs are a bit slower and have less spin, so more difficult to get right

Dan Szymborski: It’s like the knuckleball of sinkers, if that makes any sense

Dan Szymborski: I think splitter/change lines have gotten blurred by computers like 2 seamers/sinkers. And the categorizations were never *truly* as stark before computers

Comment From G. Costanza
Guys, hitting is not about muscle. It’s simple physics. Calculate the velocity V in relation to the trajectory T in which G gravity, of course, remains a constant.
[Hits a home run]
It’s not complicated.

Comment From Maikel Izturis
What chips can the Blue Jays use to get some pitching? Someone like JA Happ perhaps?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t thin kthey’re allowed to trade him again

Dan Szymborski: But if the Jays are able to trade Happ, I definitely would because it would be an amazing tempo play

Comment From Kris
A franchise like Houston with few “elite” minor league prospects, yet the best winning % of all minor league systems with some of the youngest teams in each league. Underrated prospects or good at drafting AAAA players?

Dan Szymborski: They’ve drafted pretty consistently

Comment From Dan
The Orioles have given up less runs, score more runs, play in a harder division, and have the same record as the Nats and yet the Nats get much more love….what gives?

Dan Szymborski: Well, the Nats are underperforming where a lot think thtey should be

Dan Szymborski: And I’m going to have to take off credit for “less” there.

Comment From florida ron
Two years before leading the Union Army to victory, Grant was selling firewood door to door. The man was a survivor, he would outlast the Honest Abe.

Comment From Mike
What’s the best return the Mets can expect for Jon Niese? Just salary relief?

Dan Szymborski: Salary relief.

Comment From Scrapper
IF Harry Caray was still alive, would he note that Szymborski spelled backwards is Iksrobmyzs?

Dan Szymborski: He’d just call me Simmons or Simpkins or something

Comment From L.Scott
Is Boxberger finally the man in Tampa? Or does the threat of McGee still linger? I’d love to unlock the handcuffs.

Dan Szymborski: I’d keep the cuffs

Comment From Blue Cat
Do you have a specific pitch type you have an irrational fondness for? eg: splitter, knuckle, slider…

Dan Szymborski: I love splitters

Comment From Steve
Do you believe TLR and the Dbacks are a few pieces from contending?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From Greg
Do we basically have to accept Starlin Castro as a mediocre SS who got overrated based on traditional scouting?

Dan Szymborski: There were many stat based arguments for him

Comment From Nick
How badly does Hamels want out of Philly? It looks like he’d accept a trade to pretty much anywhere at this point.

Dan Szymborski: It’s really hard to tell

Comment From laxtonto
Does the increased productivity of the current rookie class potentially change some of the early season weighting of rookies and the potential variation in Zips?

Dan Szymborski: No, there aren’t enough players to do that really

Comment From Guest
Cardinals RA/G is 2.81. Dodgers are 2nd in MLB at 3.35. Astros are 7th at 3.81.

Comment From Ozzie
Correa can’t win it?

Dan Szymborski: He can, but I think he’ll come back to earth a bit

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I’m being too negative

Dan Szymborski: Voters have a poor history at giving ROYs to guys that were really awesome in half years

Dan Szymborski: They tend to look at counting stats

Comment From James
If the Mariners do indeed retool, would you dump Ackley or stick him out there every day on the off chance that he does figure it out?

Dan Szymborski: I’d stick him out there simply because he has little value right now

Comment From Brock Sampson
What do you make of Paredes? I keep waiting for him to regress, and he keeps knocking ’em out.

Dan Szymborski: He’ll eventually regress, I expect. He has a mediocre track record even for O’s Power Role Player Surprises

Comment From laxtonto
At this point in the season, how many teams are really “out of it” and stand essentially no chance to make the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: Essentially no chance I’d put Phillies, Brewers, Rockies, Marlins.

Dan Szymborski: Long enough chance that they shoudln’t consider it, probably Reds, White Sox. Not remote but unlikely and they should be doing better stuff, Arizona, Atlanta, Boston, Oakland

Comment From RotoLando
I’ll save you some time: gluten-free macaroni and cheese sucks. If you are gluten-free macaroni and cheese is like dropping your keys into lava. Man, they’re gone.

Dan Szymborski: ewww

Comment From Nick
George Springer is pretty damn good, isn’t he?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Karl
A few chats ago you mentioned that there are four teams (I think, I can’t remember which) that need a top-down restructuring. How does that happen? It seems like a paradox. If the President/GM/etc. don’t know what they are doing, who brings in people that do?

Dan Szymborski: When I say top down, I mean whole organization reimagining

Dan Szymborski: Reds, Phillies, Rockies most obviously. Brewers, Marlins, Mariners to different degrees

Dan Szymborski: Who am I forgetting?

Comment From Mike
Will the change in Phillies leadership actually change anything?

Dan Szymborski: It *may* but I’m not sure

Dan Szymborski: MacPhail does have a history of being able to convince owners on needs to change direction

Comment From mtsw
How many Orioles get Qualifying Offers next offseason? Does Wieters become the first FA to accept one so he can get a full season of hitting stats under his belt before hitting FA for reals?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible.

Comment From Brett
Have you thought about adding decimals the ZiPS ROS export FG? Reason I ask is with a small denominator (say 200 PA or less), a difference of 3.6 HR and 4.4 HR could make a tangible impact to a HR/PA projection even though they both round to 4.

Dan Szymborski: It does, but it makes it less elegant. People get surprisingly mad about implausible projections

Dan Szymborski: “12.4 HOMERS I”D LIKE TO SEE SOMEONE HIT FOUR TENTHS OF A HOMER FAT BOY”

Dan Szymborski: Not exactly that, but I get a lot of emails of the type abou ta lot of things

Dan Szymborski: Good God you guys ask a lot of questions this week. I’m going to be at 20% answer I think

Comment From Desparate Diamondback
Do they Diamondbacks give Randall Delgado a chance to join the starting rotation this year?

Dan Szymborski: It’s very possible. The Arizona rotation looks a bit like the early episodes of a season of AMerican Idol. And hopefully like American Idol, Dave Strewart will be canceled.

Comment From Trader Joe
Do the Cubs bring Javier Baez up to the majors before trading him?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Justin Smokes
Does Austin Jackson receive a qualifying offer? Related, how does the Mariners’ SS/CF situation work out after this year? Taylor/Marte at SS, Miller in CF?

Dan Szymborski: I think he will not.

Dan Szymborski: NO idea how it shakes out as I have no idea what the M’s are thinking

Comment From Freddie Freeway
Over/under 1.5 career WAR for Danny Hultzen?

Dan Szymborski: Under

Comment From Houzer
you think Yelich lives up to his contract?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Capps
Did the Marlins win the Lomo-Capps trade by a landslide?

Dan Szymborski: It appears so

Comment From My Giant
Is Matt Duffy for real (i.e., late bloomer) or just overproducing for now?

Dan Szymborski: Overproducing, but there are real reasons to think he’s a better hitter offensively than he looked

Dan Szymborski: That’s essentially the answer for a lot of similar types of questions.

Dan Szymborski: When a player makes a huge improvement, there are usually good reasons to think at least *some* of it is real

Comment From Blue Cat
Lincoln won the civil war, Grant was CinC for a war of genocide against the Indians, so I have to go Lincoln here

Dan Szymborski: This is only brawling ability. Remember, no political considerations.

Comment From hscer
Grant named himself after the country! His given initials were HUG. Obviously he’s too soft to win this matchup.

Comment From Cube Jockey
Why wait until the end of the year to let RAJ go? The rebuild could be greatly affected by what they get for Hamels. Wouldn’t the Phillies want anyone other than Amaro in charge of that trade?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what they get by waiting.

Comment From The famous singer, Rob Stewart
Isn’t the value of a 8-10 WAR player like Mike Trout even more valuable because of the fact that the value is concentrated into one position, as opposed to two 5 WAR players. Is there a statistic that takes this into account”

Dan Szymborski: It is, but in practice, these considerations don’t really come into play in any manner

Dan Szymborski: that often

Comment From kid
Maikel Franco a legitimate threat to Joc and Kris as NL ROY?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From Straight Cash Homie
If you’re the Mets, would you trade any of Harvey, deGrom, Thor, or Matz? If so, what return would the Mets be looking at?

Comment From Kris
ESPN WRITER COMPARES MLB GM TO TERRIBLE HUMAN, CHECK THIS GIF

Dan Szymborski: Where/’d my Q?

Dan Szymborski: The answer to last Q is no, unless some GM offered me something stupid

Dan Szymborski: And I mean stupidly good, not Papelbon

Comment From laxtonto
How much impact does a hot start play into a playoff race? If I start 20-0 and I know I realistically need 70 more wins out of 142 games, I just got to play .500 ball the rest of the way. But doesn’t it go a little beyond just the math in that if you have a major lead on teams that are trying to chase you you are more likely to see some of those teams bow out earlier than not. Curious with how the weighted division schedule and propensity of having late season division games are impacted by this. If you are scheduled heavily within the division early and late then this should have a huge impact, but if teams sell off earlier due to your lead then essentially the back end of schedule should get easier… Is there more to early season streaks beyond being way out in front or in a huge early whole?

Dan Szymborski: Well remember, I use the actual schedule in my simulation, so the sched is taken into consideration

Comment From JayKay
Are you a lawyer?

Dan Szymborski: I am not.

Comment From Mother Of God Its All Toilet Sounds
What’s the opposite of the Midas Touch? The Sterculius Touch? Anyway, why do the Padres have it?

Dan Szymborski: The Amaro Touch

Dan Szymborski: Though it could be the Stewart Touch if they ever trade Goldy for an awful package

Comment From Keyrock
Ladies and gentlemen of the jury, I’m just a caveman. I fell on some ice and later got thawed out by some of your scientists. Your world frightens and confuses me! Sometimes the honking horns of your traffic make me want to get out of my BMW.. and run off into the hills, or wherever.. Sometimes when I get a message on my fax machine, I wonder: “Did little demons get inside and type it?” I don’t know! My primitive mind can’t grasp these concepts. But there is one thing I do know – when a man like my client slips and falls on a sidewalk in front of a public library, then he is entitled to no less than two million in compensatory damages, and two million in punitive damages. Thank you.

Comment From David
You sure don’t think much of Correa if you don’t think he can be roy.

Dan Szymborski: Didn’t say he wouldn’t deserve it.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe I’m too dismissive of the writers

Comment From Straight Cash Homie
Should the Mets keep running Cuddyer out there or look for a platoon partner?

Dan Szymborski: Ship him in a box to abu dhabi

Comment From Jack
Why do people hate Arod so much? I find his two decades of incredible on-field contributions to vastly outweigh taking steroids and lying about them like dozens upon dozens of other players have.

Dan Szymborski: He’s kind of an awkward dude and awkward athletes never really fare well unless they reach adorkable status. And the steroids certainly hurts as do the big contracts

Dan Szymborski: FIVE supreme court questions? YOu people are the worst people yet, including 1950s Alabama.

Dan Szymborski: OK, make that SEVEN

Comment From mtsw
Is placing relatives of the owner (e.g. John Angelos) in high ranking positions in the organization just nepotism, or could you justify it by saying having a decision maker who implicitly represents the owner’s authority overrides the presumed lack of merit in their hiring?

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes it’s nepotism (by the definition of the word), but there *is* an argument about knowing someone.

Dan Szymborski: When you employ someone, there’s always an issue of trust. And when you know somebody well, you may have a better evaluation of whether or not you can trust them than you would a complete stranger

Dan Szymborski: Let’s say my boss starts a new position that I’m right for. It’s not surprising or unreasonable for me to be taken over equally qualififed candidates, simply because I’m a known quantity to my boss

Comment From Seven
dan, thoughts on machado’s chances of winning mvp this year

Dan Szymborski: Don’t know if he’s got the buzz

Comment From L.Scott
Lincoln’s voice suggests he is more likely to beg for mercy in a brawl than be the one to say “THATS RIGHT BITCH! WANT MORE??”

Dan Szymborski: I liked the Lincoln voice Tom Kenny did in Mr. Show

Dan Szymborski: OK guys, LIGHTNING ROUND TIME

Dan Szymborski: At this point, only non-baseball questions are on-topic. And I’m *required* to answer all of them, with the obvious exceptions (work-related, explicit, etc)

Dan Szymborski: Even if you ask me a subject in which I don’t have any particular expertise.

Dan Szymborski: For example, ALL THESE DAMN SCOTUS QUESTIONS YOU GUYS ARE ASKING FOR SOME REASON

Comment From Conan OBrian
Who would win in a fight? RAJ or Stewart?

Dan Szymborski: Stewart

Dan Szymborski: Also, as a reminder, I hate you all so much.

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, trying to find all these tagged comments

Comment From mtsw
Which Presidential candidate for 2016 would do the best in a fight? Does the fairly-likely prospect of our first female President make the exercise a lot grosser to think about?

Dan Szymborski: HRC, if she wanted to win a brawl, would become like some crazy Brock Lesnar freak and destroy everyone

Comment From Blue Cat
what is your take on the Obergefell ruling from Scotus, and how it may impact the future of the non profit structure in the United States as seen through this ruling and the 1994 case BoE Kiyras Joel Village?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t thin kthere would be much application – wasn’t Kiryas Joel fairly specific to the school district issue at hand? Don’t know offhand

Comment From Greg
Do you like pina coladas?

Dan Szymborski: Pina coladas are fine, but I prefer not getting caught in the rain

Comment From LBest
Favorite, least favorite supreme court decisions this year

Dan Szymborski: and again I AM BEING ASKED THESE AND AM NOT TRYING TO HAVE SCOTUSCHAT

Dan Szymborski: Favorite Reed or Elonis. I like the Obergefell ruling’s results, but would’ve preferred an actual emphasis on discrimination issue or perhaps overturning West Coast Hotel (yeah, fat chance) rather than Kennedy’s invoking the substantive due process mischief

Dan Szymborski: Least, Texas DoH

Dan Szymborski: And let me reiterate that I hate all of you.

Comment From Steve
Dan what is this Alexander Wang shit on the side of the screen?

Dan Szymborski: I do not know who or what that is

Comment From The Priest
Against what characters would it be a good idea to open with Northshire Cleric? Or should I always wait for a sure use?

Dan Szymborski: Paladin/Hunter

Dan Szymborski: Mage *if* they mulliganed all their cards or you really want to bait out a frostbolt

Comment From Brandz
Who paid more, Gillette or Head and Shoulders?

Dan Szymborski: Do not have that information

Comment From Ampersand
What would be the ideal batting order for the 9 Supreme Court justices? I heard you like

Dan Szymborski: Probably from youngest to oldest, without any specific knowledge of their baeball abilities

Comment From Guest
So, SCOTUS… Big decisions today not getting the media attention that the two did last week. The EPA can’t ignore fiscal cost/benefit of its regulations. Common sense, right?

Dan Szymborski: Actually, haven’t read the EPA decision yet, so I’m not sure

Comment From Guest
Playing any video games this week?

Dan Szymborski: Naturally

Comment From RotoLando
If you could gay-marry any MLB player and hyphenate your names, what would it be?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not in the majors, but Szymborski-Arruebarrena would really piss off radio hosts

Comment From laxtonto
You want something easy? Do you like pie?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: See Ben, *that’s* a question.

Comment From Sirras
Gun to your head, why would somebody put a gun to your head?

Dan Szymborski: Mostly personality-based reasons, I imagine.

Comment From Guest
What do you think of the legal justification for the continuance of subsidies in federal exchanges? What do you think of the complete dismantling of that justification in the dissenting opinion?

Dan Szymborski: I have mixed feelings.

Comment From mtsw
Why on earth do any of these Greek people still have their money in Greek banks? Are the people in line at the ATM to get their euros out just hearing about this years-long bank solvency/sovereign debt crisis for the first time or what?

Dan Szymborski: Well, people that get paid by the government

Dan Szymborski: But seriously, my money would have been far away from Greece by January at the absolute latest

Comment From Guest
How stupid was the US population for 130 years after the 14th amendment was passed to miss the ‘right’ to same sex marriage that 5 SCOTUS justices thought was so obvious?

Dan Szymborski: Well, I’d like it under Lochner, but I’m in the decided minority there.

Comment From mtsw
Change my view: to announce Supreme Court decisions, they should ditch whatever the system is now and install MLB umps with headsets on the steps of the Supreme Court like its replay review. No downside except its a lot funnier.

Dan Szymborski: See, that would be awesome

Dan Szymborski: And Angel Hernandez would still get half the decisions wrong

Comment From Bart
Shouldn’t supreme court justices be elected and have term limits like congress and the president?

Dan Szymborski: Congress doesn’t have term limits. I think this way is still better than election

Comment From Andy
Thoughts on the new Tavern Brawl?

Dan Szymborski: Fun, but nothing amazing since nothing really matters after game 1

Dan Szymborski: well win 1

Dan Szymborski: I’m a competitive dude.

Dan Szymborski: Winning means more than me when it matters more.

Comment From James
First thing that comes to mind when you hear “Canada”

Dan Szymborski: a Canadian saying “sorry” in a Canadian accent

Dan Szymborski: Or possibly Tim Horton’s

Comment From Bart
Who will be the 2016 republican candidate?

Dan Szymborski: Rubio

Comment From hscer
What is your opinion of Duns Scotus?

Dan Szymborski: I bleieve in voluntarism

Dan Szymborski: Though I’m agnostic

Dan Szymborski: So not completely on board with Duns

Comment From Bart
Did you ever think about seeking help?

Dan Szymborski: I would need a whole team of psychiatrists, which is very expensive, and I rather keep my money

Dan Szymborski: And my insanity is part of my brand, I feel.

Comment From hooha
what is the ETA on when SCOTUS will review the DH rule?

Dan Szymborski: Never. Baseball is the one magical thing that interstate commerce doesn’t cover and they never seem to fix that

Comment From RotoLando
Is nepotism worse than NetiPot-ism, which is the mock aneurysm you get when you use a Neti Pot?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t use a Neti pot because I’m a little worrie dabout getting all the moisture out of my head

Comment From papa shango
have you ever play famicon and/or super-famicon?

Dan Szymborski: Just the NES/SNES stateside versions

Dan Szymborski: Check that, a friend of mine did have an actual superfamicom to play japanese games

Comment From mtsw
Thoughts on Heroes of the Storm?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t played it enough yet

Comment From Maxamuz
I take responsibility for the SCOTUS questions.

Dan Szymborski: YOu’re going to a special hell you know

Comment From Catchat
What’s your cat doing?

Dan Szymborski: One’s looking at me from my desk. Another’s walking on my office couch. Don’t know whawt the other two are doing

Comment From Jamie
What are your thoughts on The Donald?

Dan Szymborski: Comic relief

Comment From RotoLando
I’ll help you with one: Dude, you have to enable Private Browsing when you use Google Image Search for Wang pictures, otherwise, well, you already know otherwise.

Comment From Maxamuz

Comment From RotoLando
Do you have any Alt Characters memorized? I like ß

Dan Szymborski: A lot of the foreign ones because of tagging my billions of classical music CDs that I’ve ripped

Comment From Useless
I am 34 and have a combined lifetime work experience of approximately 1 year due largely to mental illness. I have a stale college degree and no social connections/references. How the hell do I find a chance to work?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure. I don’t know how *I’m* gainfully employed

Comment From laxtonto
Why are there starts in the sky?

Dan Szymborski: You can’t have a sky race without a starting point

Comment From Sylvannus Windrunner
Am I the trolliest card in all of Hearthstone? No time for games!

Dan Szymborski: I think Deathwing is the best troll. But Sylvanas is clearly a liar, for someone with no time for games, she’s in an awful lot of deck in a game.

Comment From laxtonto
What is SPAM?

Dan Szymborski: process pork product or unwanted internet juynk

Comment From L.Scott
Do your cats like to walk on the keyboard? Sometimes I’ll leave my computer for a minute and I come back to a wild looking page.

Dan Szymborski: Of course, they’re cats

Comment From Han
Do you support Wookie-Ewok marriage? Love is love.

Dan Szymborski: As long as they are both adults, I support their contractual rights

Comment From mtsw
If the Supreme Court is so necessary why do Parliamentary systems seem to function perfectly well without strong judicial review and is it that Conservatives don’t know enough about comparative government to ever make that objection?

Dan Szymborski: I’d argue that they don’t – parliamentary systems do have trouble consistently protecting basic rights.

Comment From Charlie
I’m just starting Hearthstone. My plan is to get to Level 10 with all classes, then collect gold to play arena. I should be able to have fun and do well without paying, correct?

Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda tough to do unless you’re very skilled or are very patient

Comment From L.Scott
Who would win a battle royale of washed up 80’s rock singers: Vince Neil, Joe Elliot, David Lee Roth, David Coverdale, Axl Rose, Brett Michaels, or Rob Halford?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly don’t know – I have little grasp of their respective brawling abilities

Comment From RotoLando
The problem with theses unmanned SpaceX rockets is that there is no crazy Russian to smash the instruments with a wrench when things don’t work properly.

Dan Szymborski: Correct. Smashing is an important part of engineering that we sometimes miss

Comment From mtsw
Is having major political decisions decided by under which Presidential terms Supreme Court justices happen to die a better or worse system of government than whatever it is the NFL does to decide suspensions?

Dan Szymborski: Everything’s better than how the NFL decides something

Comment From mtsw
Is soccer for commies?

Dan Szymborski: I know lots of non-commies that are into it, though I am not

Comment From hscer
Ginsburg could lead off and be the Eddie Gaedel of the SCOTUS team

Comment From maguro
How many cats does it take to cross the line between cat lover and crazy person?

Dan Szymborski: More than 1 cat per 500 square feet. Yeah, I have 4 cats, but I also have a 5 bedroom house in which I essentially live alone

Dan Szymborski: (the house I live in that is)

Comment From Flambingo
I need a game I play for 45 minutes during my lunch breaks. I want some nerdy crap but nothing I’ll have to pay for beyond initial outlay and I don’t want to get so invested in it that I think about it beyond those 45 minutes at lunch.

Dan Szymborski: agar.io

Comment From RotoLando
Recast The Odd Couple with two MLB players from any era.

Dan Szymborski: Ty Cobb and Oscar Gamble

Dan Szymborski: or maybe Ty Cobb and Dock Ellis

Dan Szymborski: Really, Ty Cobb and anybody

Comment From laxtonto
Who is smarter: Galleo the cat or Ruben A?

Dan Szymborski: Ruben. Amaro’s a bad GM, but he’s not an unintelligent person

Comment From inanimate carbon rod

Comment From laxtonto
Why am I so bad at TF2?

Dan Szymborski: Lack of experience

Comment From L.Scott
Would you be for or against a Marvel Secret Wars movie?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t have enough information

Comment From laxtonto
Give me some baby names?

Dan Szymborski: Andronicus. Thonk. Antidisestablishmentari Ann.

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to end the chat

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everybody! As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections at Fangraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter (and Steam), and ZimSmash on Twitch