Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/29/17

by
June 29, 2017
2:12
Dan Szymborski: And away we go!
2:12
Dan Szymborski: Sorry, was in a work conversation!
2:13
Nick: Is Beede still the Giants’ number 1 pitching prospect or has Suarez overtaken him?
2:14
Dan Szymborski: In my eyes he has, but some are going to quibble with that no doubt.  I’m not sure it’s *obvious*
2:14
ECinDC: Is it possible that Stras could be worth his extension? But really, he’ll opt out unless he’s hurt right?
2:14
Dan Szymborski: He could very well be.

2:14
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t think it was poorly priced at the time.
2:14
Josh Nelson: Which teams should be buyers in July?
2:14
Dan Szymborski: Probably Cubs if things don’t really start getting better quickly, Rockies
2:15
Dan Szymborski: Probably Yankees
2:15
John: As a huge Detroit Tiger fan, I have accepted that we are doomed. Will Al Avila actually start to tear this thing down or will we pull a Philly and wait too long? Please give me hope
2:15
Dan Szymborski: I had the impression this winter that they were on the verge of doing just this, but then chickened out a bit at the precipice.
2:15
Dan Szymborski: It’s gotta be coming, though.
2:16
The Average Sports Fan: Sometimes things just don’t work out.  Process can be fine, but the results just aren’t there.  Is this the answer for the Giants, or are they just terrible?  And if they are terrible, how did so many people miss it?
2:16
Dan Szymborski: That’ll be one of the mysteries of the 2017 season.
2:16
Dan Szymborski: I’ve argued that they’ve actually sucked pretty optimally – their decisions have generally been well-founded and they did a lot of the stuff they needed to
2:16
Dan Szymborski: But sometimes crap happens.
2:17
John: Austin Meadows and his hammy (again): how concerned should we be?
2:17
Dan Szymborski: I’m not that concerned.  Pirates are playing it safe.
2:17
Slapshot: Fangraphs’ homepage says “Chat with baseball’s most evil writer”.  Does that describe you, Dan, or does that really describe Cistulli?
2:17
Dan Szymborski: Unless I got the whole situation wrong, I think Carson’s the antagonist and I’m wearing the shining mail.
2:17
Dan Szymborski: But most villains believe that.
2:17
Person who doesn’t like avocado : Why are avocados so gross
2:18
Dan Szymborski: It’s their consistency.  Their mouth feel is too meaty and thick feeling than it should be, I think
2:19
Ben Brode: What is your guess for the next Hearthstone expansion and what is your dream theme for it.
2:19
Dan Szymborski: There have been rumors about them going back and doing something Lich King related.
2:20
Dan Szymborski: Some of the promotional material, the Year of the Mammoth suggesting cold, some of the card backs and trademark registrations.
2:20
Dan Szymborski: Plus, the last two expansions have been fairly light in theme, three if you count Karazhan.
2:21
Geronimo A: What is the ceiling for Yelich?
2:21
Dan Szymborski: Tony Gwynn light?
2:21
Paul (Cleveland): What’s up with Thames?!?!?
2:21
Dan Szymborski: He’s going to need to make some adjustments.  He wasn’t really as good as his early numbers or as bad as his recent ones.
2:22
ECinDC: Does Jayson Werth still have anything in the tank according to Zips? Would it make sense, or be Werth it if you will, for an AL team to sign him as a DH/4th OF?
2:22
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS isn’t that excited about Werth, but he’s done enough this year that a 2018 retirement would be by choice.
2:23
Kevin Cash: Are we getting any bullpen help before the trade deadline? Any possible candidates? Or am I gonna still be using Jumbo ?
2:23
Dan Szymborski: Maybe a low-key add, but I don’t see anything major.
2:23
Chris: Bellinger or Rizzo: Who is better for a keeper league over the next 5yrs?
2:23
Dan Szymborski: Rizzo is probably still a bit safer, but Bellinger is a star.
2:23
John: What could JV realistically fetch on the trade market?
2:23
Dan Szymborski: It would realistically come down to how much the Tigers are willing to pay on the contract.
2:24
Dan Szymborski: At the end of July, he’s essentially owed 2.5/65 or so.
2:24
Dan Szymborski: Now, would a team sign him for 2.5/65?  I think so.  But they’re not going to send a bunch of prospects for the privilege to sign him to that.
2:25
Dan Szymborski: Now, he’s had some really excellent starts this year, but he’s also a pitcher with a FIP around 4 that has seen a huge bump in his walk rate
2:25
Dan Szymborski: It’s not enough that you turn him down, but it’s an additional risk factor.
2:25
Geronimo A: What do you think Gallo’s ceiling is? Can he ever hit .250?
2:25
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’ll ever hit for a good BA.
2:26
Dan Szymborski: He’s a contributor if he can manage to play third long-term.
2:26
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s tougher if he’s a 1B/DH
2:27
Babe Lincoln: What makes you baseball’s most evil writer?
2:28
Dan Szymborski: I once saved Baby HItler with a time machine.  Though in my defense, nobody told me it was Baby Hitler they were killing, that’s the kind of thing you should really clear up to everybody with a time machine.
2:29
Howard Duck: You buying Rendon’s new found plate discipline? More walks than strikeouts right now, very Vottian
2:30
Dan Szymborski: He’s always been pretty good at not swinging at bad pitches.
2:31
Dan Szymborski: I do t hink it represents real improvement though.
2:32
Dan: Favorite angry heartbreak songs? Curious if you have some I haven’t thought of.
2:32
Dan Szymborski:

2:32
Joe: Trey Mancini a potential stud, or is this still smoke and mirrors?
2:32
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t call him a stud, but the power is real.
2:32
Dan: Favorite Karaoke songs? I always do “Bad Reputation.”
2:32
Dan Szymborski: I don’t really do karaoke
2:32
Lane: Hey Dan, where do you stand on Eric Thames? Zips likes him. I’m in an OBP league so I was wondering whether to acquire him (can be kept for $3). I liked how he was still walking in June despite horrid everything else.
2:33
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a solid power hitter, with a limited skills et.
2:33
Jackson: Is there any evidence specific types of hitters are more or less prone to streakiness? Does streakiness even exist as a trait or are all players fairly streaky?
2:33
Dan Szymborski: It’s one of those things that you intuitively think might be true, but I’m just not convinced by the data.
2:33
Dan Szymborski: There’s evidence that certain individuals are streakier than others (to an extent), but it’s a real mish-mash
2:33
Dan: If you could learn one language, what would it be, and don’t take the cop-out Esperanto answer?
2:33
Dan Szymborski: Python
2:33
Luke: Robbie Ray or Michael Fulmer long term? Ray has better stuff but Fulmer seems to be able to pitch to contact.
2:34
Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I think of them as similar.  Perhaps Fulmer a little safer, but I really like Ray.
2:34
Duff: Who can I get for Dylan Bundy? Want to trade him but don’t want to straight up drop him.
2:34
Dan Szymborski: Well, ask your league.  People have differing opinions.
2:34
CamdenWarehouse: I finally get to chat with Dan.  It’s been ages.
2:34
Dan Szymborski: It was last week!
2:34
JTT: Who keeps forgetting that you chat on Wednesdays? You or Cistulli?
2:34
Dan Szymborski: I was recording something for ESPN Radio.
2:34
Dan Szymborski: So w hen I can’t do wednesday, I do thursday.
2:36
Eli : Conner Greene best suited as a reliever or starter?
2:36
Dan Szymborski: I’m a believer that every pitcher is best suited as a starter until events transpire that cause you to categorily reject the notion.
2:37
Dan Szymborski: I think we’r egetting ahead of us in Greene’s role.
2:38
Dan Szymborski: He’s still not *really* clicking yet as a pitcher, period.
2:38
Dan Szymborski: His stuff is well ahead of his actual pitching skills right now.
2:38
Dan: So was arguing with my Tigers-homer friend who claimed that Castellanos is just as good as Bregman. I know they’ve got similar numbers this season, but he’s crazy, right?
2:38
Dan Szymborski: Yeah
2:39
Twoseamers: Mike Tauchman? Who?
2:39
Dan Szymborski: I think he’s that fake prospect you guys were trying to get me and Eno to comment on this spring.
2:39
Dan Szymborski: More seriously, I’m a believe in giving every minor leaguer, even one who you’ve established as a non-prospect, a chance to prove you wrong.
2:40
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s really much of a prospect now or anything, he’s too old and his PCL performance isn’t *that* amazing, but I rather see what a guy like that can do then some 33-year-old mediocre retread.
2:40
Bug the mug: Teheran looks awful. Is he droppable in a 12 team roto league? More importantly, will the Braves ever be able to get any value from him ever again? Pitching? Trades? Anything!!
2:40
Dan Szymborski:

2:41
Jim: Crazy it has come to this, but who do you prefer ROS in a redraft? Travis Shaw or Manny Machado? Do you trust Shaw’s breakout or Manny’s track record more?
2:41
Dan Szymborski: Machado.
2:41
Carson Cistulli: Is Eric Thames finished? Not as a mortal denizen of earth… At least not yet, but as a major league baseballer. This commenter has wondered, on many occasions. a). Has the league adjusted to Eric Thames? b). What does this mean for the Milaukee brewers?
2:41
Dan Szymborski: You guys get too excited in good times and too depressed in the bad ones.
2:41
RJ: THESE PRETZELS ARE MAKING ME THIRSTY
2:41
CamdenWarehouse: Ok maybe I don’t get to chat with Dan…
2:41
Sean: Hope your Thursday goes well, Dan.
2:41
Babe Lincoln: Eno ended his chat because “the kids are going batpoop.”  What do you think that means?
2:41
Dan Szymborski: They discovered fireplace lighters + Lysol?
2:41
RJ: WORST CHAT EVER. Oh hai
2:42
RJ: Is Jordan Montgomery this good? Is Rick Porcello this bad?  I’m this close to exchanging the good one for the bad one. Thanks.
2:43
Dan Szymborski: I keep telling myself no way on the first.
2:43
Dan Szymborski: But hitters just swing and fail at his secondary pitches.
2:43
@RationalMLBfan: From a sabermetrics perspective, is the hit-and-run play a good play or does it put artificial pressure on the hitter to make contact (and possibly reduce the quality of batted ball contact), which negates any benefit of distorting the defense moving to cover the SB attempt?
2:44
Dan Szymborski: Pete Palmer had an article a few years ago suggesting that it comes out about neutral in the end.
2:44
Dan Szymborski: Lemme see if I can find it
2:45
Dan Szymborski: http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=17438
2:46
CamdenWarehouse: The Braves designated Bartolo
2:46
Dan Szymborski: NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO
2:46
Mo Vaughn: How many PA does it take for BB% to stabilize? Is 200 PA enough to trust a young player who has doubled his historical BB%?
2:46
Dan Szymborski: It depends on how long the resume is and the magnitude of the change.
2:46
Dan Szymborski: You can’t look at it in a linear fashion like this.
2:46
Dan Szymborski: Though 200 PA, for most large changes, is enough to be significant.
2:46
Rob: What teams should be all in on Quintana and where do you think he ends up if he’s traded in July?
2:47
Dan Szymborski: Given what the White Sox are likely asking to actually close a deal, I think I’d be more interested in being all-in on Archer if the Rays trade him.
2:47
jon: With a weak farm system, wouldn’t it better for the Giants to Rebuild, rather than retool?
2:47
Dan Szymborski: That’s only if the core is at the point where they’re unable to ever win again.
2:47
Dan Szymborski: I’m not quite sure they’re there yet.
2:47
mario: Are the rays buyers or sellers? Bullpen help?
2:47
Dan Szymborski: The Rays are intersting in that wiht their high minors pitchers, they could plausibly do both.
2:48
Babe Lincoln: “Mouth feel” is a gross term.  It’s not wrong.  Just gross.
2:48
Eric: Who are the top 3 candidates to win NL mvp right now?
2:49
Dan Szymborski: Goldschmidt, Seager, Votto, Harper, Rendon, Turner, Arenado or something like that
2:49
Dan Szymborski: ot long enough to winnow down the field
2:49
Dan Szymborski: Zimmerman will probably get more support than he deserves
2:49
Slim Charles: Do you agree with Eno’s assessment that Judge will never be able to substantially improve his K%? George Springer and Kris Bryant are two guys who had similar contact profiles in the minors and who have continued to improve their contact rates well into their 20s in the majors.
2:49
Dan Szymborski: Did he actually say never?
2:50
Dan Szymborski: I would never say never, but it’s still pretty hard to fundamentally change who you are
2:50
Dan Szymborski: I expect some gradual improements though
2:50
TeamNameRedacted: I’m more excited for the futures game than the all-star game. Let’s see Kyle Tucker hit a bomb off Domingo Acevedo
2:50
Dan Szymborski: The main All-Star Game kinda bores me.
2:50
Dan Szymborski: The matchups aren’t special with interleague play and free agency
2:50
Dan Szymborski: And it’s not really played like a real game.
2:51
Reginald: What do you think is Judge
2:51
Dan Szymborski: He’s that guy on the Yankees who murders baseballs with tree chunks.
2:51
Reginald: What do you think is Judge’s true talent batting average?
2:51
Dan Szymborski: Probably around .270.
2:51
CamdenWarehouse: The Orioles are not going to rebuild despite it being the correct thing to do, right?
2:52
Dan Szymborski: I suspect you are accurate.
2:52
Slapshot: Is it time to pour one out for the career of Bartolo Colon, who was DFA’d by the Braves just a few minutes ago?
2:52
Dan Szymborski: SADNESS
2:52
Babe Lincoln: The Mets are _________?
2:52
Dan Szymborski: incompetently run by boobs in on-field and ownership.
2:52
Ben: Does Hanley turn it around this year?
2:53
Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say turn it around, I don’t think he’s actually all that good, but he’s a bit better than his line so far
2:53
Joe: Judge has gotten all the attention in the AL ROY, which is obviously correct, but Trey Mancini has had a nice under the radar. Can he be an above average regular going forward?
2:53
Dan Szymborski: I think it’s likely htat he’s an above-average player at this point
2:53
Joe: How do you feel about SIERA as a metric compared to FIP? I ask because I read yesterday that Michael Fulmer has a SIERA of 4.29 which is bad but, his FIP is 3.07. Sell him high now or hold and trust his results so far?
2:53
Dan Szymborski: it depends, on going case-by-case.
2:54
Dan Szymborski: There’s no reason to simply rely on one thing and throw everything out.
2:54
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: If I had a time machine, I’d just make sure Hitler didn’t get kicked out of art school.
2:55
Ben z: Would it be financially rational for Harper to go full Lebron and take a series of like 2 year deals at 40m a year?
2:55
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so.  Baseball’s structure is different.
2:55
John: How surprised are you that nearly* everything has gone wrong for the Cubs this year? They were due for negative regression, but this year has just been a negative slap to the face.
2:55
Dan Szymborski: It’s regression toward the mean, not on the other side of the mean to balance out the world.
2:56
Ben z: Would you rather have Anthony Rendon or Nolan Arenado? I actually don’t think this answer is nearly as obvious as it seems.
2:56
Dan Szymborski: I would probably take Arenado, but like you, I don’t think the answer is obvious.
2:56
hjrrockies: The Rockies have 70% odds to win the WC and yet my bigger concern is: how good is the team, really? The offense is so putrid once park-adjusted. I do think the pitching, with a healthy Gray, is still really good, but I don’t know.
2:56
Dan Szymborski: I suspect if you could somehow get them to play a million games, they’d be somewhere in the 85 per 162 range or so.
2:56
Dan: No karaoke? It’s like I don’t even know you. 🙁 Next you’ll tell me you like skyline chili.
2:57
Dan Szymborski: When I’m at bars, I’m there for drinkin’
2:57
Dan Szymborski: And yuck.
2:57
CamdenWarehouse: It wasn’t last week for me, man.  I don’t know if I’ve chatted with you since like the second week of May.
2:57
Dan Szymborski: I’m on Twitter you know!
2:57
Babe Lincoln: Lou Gehrig twice had more HRs than Ks in a season.  What active player is our best bet to achieve that feat sometime in his career, and what are the odds anyone actually does so in the next 10 years?
2:57
Dan Szymborski: None, realistically.  The game is played very differently.
2:57
ECinDC: Would love to see an article on how today’s best players are projected to age, maybe with comps. I have ESPN insider, so there is cool too.
2:58
Dan Szymborski: Noting this.  If I write it you better read though!
2:58
Ben z: Would you rather have Addison Russell or Trea Turner for the next 10 years?
2:58
Dan Szymborski: Turner by the slightest of hairs
2:58
shawn: How do you feel about the Hall of Fame chances for Brian McCann and YAdier Molina?   If either of them two have a chance, what does that say for Jason Kendall?
2:58
Dan Szymborski: None.
2:58
Dan Szymborski: OK, maybe that’s too blunt
2:58
Dan Szymborski: McCann is none.
2:58
Dan Szymborski: Molina I think will get some support, but nowhere close to 75%
2:58
Jim: Are you optimistic that Lucroy can turn it around?  His production is borderline laughable at this point.  Would you dump him for Grandal and never look back?
2:58
Dan Szymborski: I’m optimistic with a tinge of worry.
2:58
Sgt. Pepper: I haven’t been here in like three years CamdenWarehouse get on my level
2:59
Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Kakie Bryan suffered a set-back in his ACL rehab. Does this change his stock at all?
2:59
Dan Szymborski: THEREs the ficitional guy!
2:59
Babe Lincoln: Headline I just saw: “Is it time for the Mets to trade red-hot Curtis Granderson” –  your take?
2:59
Dan Szymborski: Well, if they can trick a foolish GM, sure.
2:59
ECinDC: How is Beltre still so good?
2:59
Dan Szymborski: There’s a picture in his house of Scott Rolen aging.
3:00
Dan Szymborski: OK, I’ve used that joke before with Sonny Gray (The Picture of Sonny Gray) and Trevor Cahill
3:00
ECinDC: What I’m really asking: how does Zips treat injuries?
3:00
ECinDC: For guys like Ryan Zimmerman, how does Zips take into account the fact that they might be healthy now, and how might that factor into future projections? Or, like Rich Hill, does it know that he just doesn’t pitch much or does it know he’s injured and adjust accordingly?
3:00
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS does take into consideration injuries, but it’s in a broad sense.
3:00
Dan Szymborski: There are essentially dummy variable for broad types of injury and legnth of disabled list stay
3:01
Dan Szymborski: You can only get so detailed with this kind of information.
3:01
Babe Lincoln: Should the Mets pick up Bartolo?  Sad to ask about a player with a 45.00 FIP, but it’s not crazy…..
3:01
Dan Szymborski: They should pick him up, but make sure to use the legs and not the back.
3:01
bruce: as a new member I am trying to figure out how you come up with win% on todays games
3:01
Dan Szymborski: I didn’t make ’em!
3:01
Crazy Aunt Marie: Given so many people arw buried in their phones, How long before someone is actually killed by one of Judge’s laser beams?
3:02
Dan Szymborski: People have  been oblivious to baseballs for awhile.
3:02
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure a 115 MPH ball is *that* much more dangerous than 105 MPH ball, I think to be fatal you gotta hit the person the right way and they have to be really oblivious.
3:02
Billy Beane: Has anyone ever called you Danforth? I always enjoy made up fake longer versions of names (ex. Jimothy) and was wondering your thoughts on them.
3:02
Dan Szymborski: They have not.
3:02
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been called DJ Szyzzle though.
3:03
Schimpf Fried Rice: What’s up with Alonso’s recent skid? He is not quite as transformed as we thought?
3:03
Dan Szymborski: He would still have ups and downs.
3:03
Ben z: You think Votto is ahead of Harper in NL MVP? They have same wRC+ and Votto is a bad defensive first baseman while Harper is a slightly above average RF (cannon arm + average range). Also…his hair.
3:03
Dan Szymborski: I wasn’t ranking, I was broadly staying who the contenders are.
3:03
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sitting down and considering an exact ranking in a 15 second comment.
3:03
Tom: Did you ever play Gwent from the Witcher III? That game is pretty addicting and I don’t typically like card games.
3:03
Dan Szymborski: Yes, and I was in the closed beta of the standalone too.
3:04
James: Do you think the Red Sox should promote Devers to fill that pit at third?
3:04
Dan Szymborski: I would, sure as sugar.
3:04
Zimmerman : What are the chances he had his crazy 2.5 months and now he slides back to 2016 garbage? I feel like it’s above 20%.
3:04
Dan Szymborski: Probably a little too high if he’s healthy.
3:04
LegallyEagle: What value does Kate Upton add in a trade for JV? Top 100 prospect?
3:04
Dan Szymborski: It’s not like you get to date her if you trade for him.
3:05
James: What do you think is the biggest problem with the Red Sox offense? They’re obviously missing Ortiz, but that can’t be responsible for this big a drop… Can it?
3:05
Dan Szymborski: Well, there was also some natural regression to the mean on a few of the players.
3:05
Dan Szymborski: They’re definitely missing that one big thumper, which Ortiz did well
3:06
Dan Szymborski: He *was* a guy with a 1.000 OPS last year, after all.
3:06
Kosch: what is the difference between skyline chili and regular chile?
3:06
Dan Szymborski: It’s cincinnati-style chili.
3:06
Dan Szymborski: Which tastes a bit like pumpkin pie filling.
3:07
BB guy: Ryan McMahon:  .440!  Does he get called up?
3:07
Dan Szymborski: Frankly, I’d try and trade LeMahieu and plug him right in, but that strikes me as too-aggressive for the Rockies.
3:08
Ben z : I feel like Trea Turner should eliminate his leg kick and forget about trying get XBHs. A single is basically the same as a double for him and the apparent power from last year seems mostly to have been a mirage. No?
3:08
Dan Szymborski: The thing is, he was an .850 or so OPS guy in AAA last year.  It was his BA last year that was a mirage.
3:08
Dan Szymborski: He was never going to be a .390 BABIP guy.
3:09
Dan Szymborski: Now, he doesn’t need to be and he’s a damn good player, but 2016 MLB wasn’t his baseline.
3:09
BB guy: Albies!  Soon?
3:09
Dan Szymborski: You’d think so
3:09
Scott Boras: Quick note on JV:  Kate Upton involvement very much up for discussion in contractual details.
3:09
Reds Fan: JV really means Joey Votto at this point, apologies to Detroit.
3:09
My name is Judge…: Could the Brewers end up jumping in the mix for Quintana?  if not him maybe some bullpen help.
3:09
Dan Szymborski: I suspect not.
3:09
Dan Szymborski: They’r enot far enough in the process that I think they’re really going to splash for Quintana.
3:10
Dan Szymborski: They’re a bit in the position of the dog that caught the bus.
3:10
Ben Z: Next year Matt Harvey will be playing for _____.
3:10
Dan Szymborski: money
3:10
Tom: Can we change the chat schedule to Dan Szymborski “Whenever it is afternoon and he feels like it.” ?
3:10
Dan Szymborski: Sure!
3:10
LegallyEagle: If the Rockies continue to struggle, is it crazy to think they should consider trading Holland and cashing in on the haul they could extract from a team like the Nats?
3:10
Dan Szymborski: No, but again, Rockies.
3:11
John: So Buxton is getting rid of the leg kick again? Will they ever just stick to one swing plan?
3:11
Dan Szymborski: They’ve been tinkering with him a lot.  Which I gues sisn’t surprising considering how all over the map his offense has been.
3:11
Dan’s biggest Flan: “Albies soon?” got through so I’ll try this: Mondesi soon?
3:11
Dan Szymborski: WTF knows what the Royals are thinking.
3:12
Dan Szymborski: They should bring him up, but at short to replace Alcides.
3:13
Dan Szymborski: But they still dont’ reven realize they have a shortstop-shaped object at shortstop.
3:13
JTT: What do you hate the most? Nick markakis, carson cistulli or the entire month of April?
3:13
Dan Szymborski: All of these things need to be shot into the sun.
3:14
dan: any update on andrew heaney status?
3:14
Dan Szymborski: Last I saw he was throwing some bullpens.
3:14
Billy Beane: Danforth who is the MLB player who is most interesting to you at the moment?
3:14
Dan Szymborski: Bellinger
3:14
Dan’s biggest Flan: Agreed… talked to a Royals fan about it and they said “Esky” is untouchable smh
3:14
Dan Szymborski: If you were my biggest flan I would have consumed you already.
3:15
LegallyEagle: I’ve read before about how a batter in a slump (or just out of the blue) changes the kind of bat he uses and starts hitting much better. Is there any literature out there about the dynamic of bats to offensive production/results?
3:15
Dan Szymborski: Not that I know of.
3:15
Dan Szymborski: Simply because the data is a bit tricky to get.
3:15
Dan Szymborski: So stuff like bats is still spun up int he quasi-mythological baseballverse.
3:16
MikeC: Will Soler ever put it together or is he a AAAA guy instead of a big leaguer?
3:16
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s a lost cause.
3:16
Dan Szymborski: I think he was ill-served in a couple of ways developmentally
3:16
Dan Szymborski: He was likely promoted to quickly, getting very little minor league experience
3:16
Dan Szymborski: and his health has been  afactor
3:16
Dan Szymborski: But the talent is still tehre.
3:17
Eno Sarris: What do you make of Paxton’s recent struggles? Think he’ll rebound to be a top 15 SP like he was pre-DL?
3:17
Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure he’s not still hurting.
3:17
Dan Szymborski: AND IF YOU’RE THE REAL ENO LINK A LOCK OF YOUR HAIR
3:17
Booger: I assume Urias’ injury ends any talk of him becoming an ace. What are the chances of him becoming a useful starter?
3:17
Dan Szymborski: He’s so young and it’s way too soon to end talks
3:17
Nick Markakis: Why do I deserve to be shot into the sun?  If anything it’s the trolls that ask questions about me.  And if not me, they could be asking about Tim Tebow.  So count your blessings!
3:17
Dan Szymborski: That’s fair.  The Nick Markakis questioneers should instead.
3:17
Billy Beane: Danforth, what baseball player is closest to Carson Cistulli?
3:18
Dan Szymborski: A.J. Pierzynski?
3:19
Ben Z: Who is the player in MLB right now most capable of out-WAR-ing Trout over a full heathy season? I feel like Bryce did it in 2015 but I can’t quite remember. Still him or no?
3:19
Dan Szymborski: Harper or one of the 3B.
3:20
Billy Beane: Danforth, ZiPs has Bellinger at 40 HRs this year. You taking the over or the under on that? Or are you trusting your model and holding at 40?
3:20
Dan Szymborski: I’m on board.
3:20
My name is Judge…: Bigger Chicago dumpster fire:  Adam LaRoche quitting because they wouldnt let his son bat leadoff, Chris Sale going Edward Scissorhands on throwback jerseys, or Miguel Montero calling out his teammate with the truth?
3:20
Dan Szymborski: I’ll leave that for the peanut gallery
3:20
mike sixel: The Twins are, I believe, still projected to be the 2nd worst AL team RoS……what would make that change*, if anything? *realistically
3:20
Dan Szymborski: Not having a 34-42 pythag would help.
3:20
Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time for me to shuffle off this digital coil.
3:21
Dan Szymborski: You can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.





 

Carson Cistulli has published a book of aphorisms called Spirited Ejaculations of a New Enthusiast.

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