Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/3/13

Dan Szymborski: LION-O, IT’S TIME FOR DAN SHIMBORSHKEY’S WEEKLY CHAT SNARF SNARF!

Comment From Chris
I missed your scent. I missed your musk… When this all gets sorted out, I think you and me should get an apartment together!

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t showered yet today, so you probably don’t actually miss my musky scents.

Comment From Jonathan Broxtons Belt
Am I the most underrated player in the league?

Dan Szymborski: Heh.

Dan Szymborski: Perhaps whatever’s keeping C.C. Sabathia’s pants up

Comment From EJC
If Zimmerman has to move off 3rd, where best to play him? lf/rf? 1st?

Dan Szymborski: 1st appears to be most likely.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s see where his D ends up by end of season. 2 months defense numbers dicey, even if they match how he’s looked

Comment From John
How do you think Puig will perform in the big leagues?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t run anything for him yet. I’ll crank out a zMLE while we’re doing this.

Dan Szymborski: I have two pieces to finish up for tomorrow, so I’m keeping strictly to 1 PM today.

Comment From JEB
As a book reader did you enjoy last nights GoT episode? I found it fantastic!

Dan Szymborski: Terrific episode and well done, but I will post no spoilers, be they from my mouth or questions.

Comment From lowercase jeff
what do you envision from RA Dickey rest of season? what if he were to climb Mount Kilimanjaro over the all-star break?

Dan Szymborski: I keep thinking he’ll come around. The Jays pitching has been a mess and the disaster has caught me by surprise. Pretty much everything that could go wrong has.

Comment From Steve
Thoughts on the D-Backs rotation situation? They have Hudson coming back and a plethora of young arms… I think they should trade Kennedy/Kubel for a bat who can sit behind Goldschmidt at 3, who doesn’t platoon and who gives them plus defense.

Dan Szymborski: They won’t. Hudson’s probably going to have to earn his way back in. Someone in rotation has to get traded at some point.

Comment From Unnamed Dodger
Thanks for chatting, Dan! I’d like to know what you think of (*CRASH*) (*THUD*) (*SHATTERING NOISE)…Sorry, I gotta run to the trainer’s room.

Comment From JAC
Zips doesn’t like Shelby Miller much. Does it know that he just throws fastballs and that’s a strange thing for a starter to do?

Dan Szymborski: I’d hardly call a 3.88 ERA not liking. In-season, it knows nothing about the pitches, but the 2014 projection will.

Comment From Gilbert
With Myers seeming to right the ship down in AAA recently, have your expectations changed any concerning his ROS projections?

Dan Szymborski: No. ZiPS had him at 253/317/444 into the season and that’s not far off from his where his 2013 zMLE has been (eyeballing)

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS translates Puig so far as 268/317/503

Dan Szymborski: Myers a little lower htan I thought because of the K (228/294/388)

Dan Szymborski: Though a 253/317/444 guy having a 228/294/388 run isn’t the strangest thing in the world.

Comment From Magnum P.I.
Carlos Gomez! Turning into a superstar? You buying this?

Dan Szymborski: Whether or not we buy it, it’s been charged to the card, UPS dropped it off, and there’s a very inflexible return policy.

Dan Szymborski: Even if we don’t think he’s this good, our expectations should be increased now.

Comment From Pelle
What’s up with Ben Zobrist?

Dan Szymborski: Bad 2 months.

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
will ageless Bartolo Colon continue to be a 3.50 ERA/ 1.15 whip guy ROS w/ his BB stinginess?

Dan Szymborski: I’d go a tad higher with ERA, though he’s a solid inning eater.

Dan Szymborski: and from the looks of it, a solid other stuff eater

Comment From juan pierres mustache
personally, i think zimmerman’s D has been phenomenal. how rare is it for a guy to play that well with a ruined wreck for a throwing arm? he even occasionally gets the ball all the way to first base

Comment From Nick
Thoughts on the Jays rotation? They spent a mountain of cash, and seem to be in win now mode… any chance they move along some of these young arms like Sanchez?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’re going to hope for a turnaround with the guys they haev

Dan Szymborski: They have 24-33 in the books now, after all, so new win-now moves aren’t helping much.

Dan Szymborski: Even if they play as well as we thought they would over the rest of the season, they’re still not a playoff team. They have to play better than we thought, so the odds are tough.

Comment From Pelle
What do you envision for Jayson Werth ROS once he returns from the DL?

Dan Szymborski: Not too much. He can draw some walks, but the Nats did not make a good move in signing him.

Dan Szymborski: Unlike the Jays rotation collapse, at least *that* one I called at the time

Comment From michael
Both board and the pirates talked about a Pedro Alvarez extension…. if you were the buccos would you consider it? I think its an awful idea.

Dan Szymborski: There’s a price it’s a good idea and a price it’s not. You shoudl consider everything.

Comment From Aaron
What is the best thing for the Indians to do with Asdrubal Cabrera?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing

Comment From Joe MAddon
Is Matt Joyce underrated?

Dan Szymborski: Slightly. At this pint, I think he’s approaching being rated.

Comment From Moi
Trade Justin Upton for Kershaw??

Dan Szymborski: I’d pull that trigger.

Comment From Metsamorphosis
Not sure if fantasy questions are ok, so apologies in advance if they’re not. Standard league (5 x 5) just traded Fowler and Griffin for Han Ram and Homer Bailey. thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Doesn’t seem unreasonable for either side at a quick glance.

Comment From Edward
Any random thoughts on George Springer?

Dan Szymborski: Astros need to get him up to AAA.

Comment From lowercase jeff
the padres have been a pleasant surprise this year. what do you think they should do with their rotation ROS to best capitalize on their surprisingly not-terrible start?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I don’t think there’s enough they can do in-season to make them a real contender.

Dan Szymborski: Well, realistically.

Comment From Luis Cruz
Why am I still a major league regular?

Dan Szymborski: In season, the Dodgers can’t go apeship and sign Jamey Carroll to 3-years, $50 million or something

Comment From Guest
Ah relaxing on a deck chair in the garden, ah damn ive gotta mow the lawn soon, oh well.

Dan Szymborski: I hate mowing the lawn!

Dan Szymborski: It was supposed to rain an assload sunday so I could put it off, but it didn’t!

Dan Szymborski: How did a midwest weather system the size of Eric Wedge’s dumbassness miss southwest ohio?

Comment From Tim
What has been the flukiest performance this season (be it team or individual)?

Dan Szymborski: Westbrook?

Comment From russ
any idea why Sano is still in A ball? also, when do you expect his arrival to the show?

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty don’t know. I would’ve already promoted him.

Dan Szymborski: (not to Minnesota, of course)

Comment From Goose
was just offered his Josh Hamilton for my Matt Harvey. Should I take this and run?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: Josh Hamilton’s fantasy numbers were inevitably going to take a hit even if he stayed solid

Dan Szymborski: I liked Harvey a lot and for obvious reasons, I like him even more now

Comment From Guest
What is to become of Overbay?

Dan Szymborski: As I understand it, one day he will die and his remains will erode over time. Then in a few hundred million years, he’ll turn to oil and they’ll put him in trucks, then the sun will incinerate the earth, charring anything that remains, and eventually the heat death of the universe will leave existence a dark, cold, lifeless place for eternity once the black holes dissolve.

Dan Szymborski: Or he could end up with the Royals.

Dan Szymborski: Not sure which.

Comment From Dave Portnoy
If you could have dinner with one active ballplayer, who would it be?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Breslow because he’s the smartest player in baseball. Or maybe Bartolo Colon because he looks like a man that knows where to get good cuisine.

Comment From Steve
Is Chris Davis for real? No one saw this coming. Jesus Montero and Dustin Ackley were drafted before him

Dan Szymborski: A tthis point, mostly. Davis always had power, the question was if he could ever do enough to make use of it.

Dan Szymborski: I mean, he’s not going to have an 1100 OPS or anything

Dan Szymborski: But I’mf airly certain at this point he’s a real plus going forward

Comment From Denzel
Your current match-up prediction for the NLCS? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: ATL/STL

Comment From Pelle
The Angels will be all in for a top-flight SP at the deadline, no?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure they’re going to be close enough to matter.

Dan Szymborski: Unelss it’s a guy they can have for multiple seaosns

Comment From Sun Tzu
In a desperate position, you must fight

Dan Szymborski: That’s why, in Romance of the Three Kingdoms, they let Zhang Jiao’s troops flee (I think Ru Nan) and butchered them afterwards rather than bottle them up.

Comment From Metsamorphosis
Is Hosmer kinda sorta coming back?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even know anymore.

Comment From TJ
Gyorko is raking! Think Bill James projection of 25 HR and 90 RBI is within grasp? Debating between starting this cat or Profar at 2B…

Dan Szymborski: He’s not hitting 25 this year. *Maybe* the 90, but I’d guess no.

Comment From lowercase jeff
so who is the marlins’ all star representative this year? fernandez?

Dan Szymborski: Seems the most logical.

Comment From Django
Nick Markakis has always been a solid player, but this year he’s on fire? Most underrated fantasy player maybe?

Dan Szymborski: I’d hardly call his year on fire. He’s having the usual typically B+ Markakis season.

Comment From Dean
God you must get so much sh*t sent through here, dont they filter any of it out?

Dan Szymborski: I imagine God filters quite a lot of stuff or he’d go insane.

Dan Szymborski: GOD HELP ME WIN FOOTBALL GAME!

Comment From lowercase jeff
at what point does a sample size become significant enough that you are comfortable saying someone has changed (buchholz) or has been underestimated (corbin)?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a linear question in that way. The bigger the change, the smaller the sample size needed. The more volatile the state in question, the bigger the sample size needed.

Comment From Aaron
What’s the best thing for the Indians to do with Asdrubal Cabrera. He’s on the last year of his contract, and Lindor could be ready in a year or two.

Dan Szymborski: He’s signed for $11-12 million, I think, for next season.

Comment From Denzel
Seems like there’s been some discussion that the current understanding of DIPS underrates consistent groundball pitchers. Does that mean there’s a possibility that it overrates strikeout pitchers, too?

Dan Szymborski: Not particularly. We’re talkign things at the margins at this point, really.

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Juan Francisco just landed in MIL: starting 1B for them?

Dan Szymborski: He ought to be.

Comment From Dan
What does Zips say the track record is for guys in full season ball at 16? Curious re: Urias should he stay in A

Dan Szymborski: I don’t usually project those guys

Comment From Dionysus
Dan, Clay Buchholz has been, oh let’s say, pretty good this season. What’s he doing differently this season as opposed to the past?

Dan Szymborski: sounds like you’re baiting me into a cheating Q sneakily!

Dan Szymborski: He *looks* to me like he’s better at changing speeds, but in truth, I’ve seen like 3 or 4 of his starts so it’ shard to conclude

Dan Szymborski: I’d actually have to go back and look at the game videos, but I can’t do that in the context of a chat

Comment From Jordan
Ozuna just enjoying some babip magic or is he actually this good?

Dan Szymborski: Nobody’s a true .420 BABIP guy

Comment From Blockhead
Should Kinsler be shagging fly balls in LF during his rehab games? Profar making a case he has to be kept up.

Dan Szymborski: The Kinslayer should be.

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Brandon Beachy: overrated? Or are we giving him a pass on that K-rate drop he showed last year since he ended up needing TJ?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to put up a season like his 2011 without being at least a solid pitcher

Comment From Casey
Pick up Puig ASAP?

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of unknowns about Puig still, but he’s certainly worth a back of the roster look-see if nobody else in your league has done so

Comment From Guest
How much more rope do the Mets give Collins?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s always been thought of as a caretaker manager until such time that they don’t suck

Dan Szymborski: I actually expect him to stay manager as long as they pay him

Dan Szymborski: The Wilpons have like $900 million in loans due the next 2 years and they’re out of stuff to leverage

Comment From Pelle
Are they really going to send Profar down once Kinsler gets back?

Dan Szymborski: I hope not. It’s very hard to send Profar down.

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Alex Colome primed to leap-frog Chris Archer into the TB rotation?

Dan Szymborski: Colome’s been lights-out in the minors this year. Both will eventually get chances, the Rays aren’t ones to let minor league pitchers rot.

Comment From Metsamorphosis
Do I trade Yadi Molina and Fister for Posey and V Mart?

Dan Szymborski: Technically, you’re trading Yadier Molina, Doug Fister, and the state of not having Victor Martinez on your roster for Buster Posey.

Dan Szymborski: I’d rather have Yadi and The Man With the Unfortunate Last Name

Comment From Sadwick
If the Jays really are hoping for a turnaround with their rotation, or team in general, they really have to wait for next season, don’t they? even if they rebound this year they’re too far behind to make it past the rest of the AL East. And if they’re waiting for next season do they still sell anyone at the deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they sell unless it really gets dire

Comment From Guest #1
Is Desmond pretty much the player who he is? Hes similar to Lawrie in that he dominated in his cup of coffee, elevated expatations and then has disapointed since.

Dan Szymborski: He is what he is. He’s not a bad player, just not 2012 good

Dan Szymborski: Lawrie’s tough – I’m not sure if he’s really fully healthy

Comment From Chris B.
Why the heck did it take so long for the Brewers to abandon the three shortstop infield?

Dan Szymborski: I have no firetrucking idea. Gorman Thomas would have done a better job at first. Right now.

Comment From RK
What’s the market look like for LaRoche if they want to move Zimm to first now?

Dan Szymborski: Not very. I don’t think they will. And they’re getting Rendon back to 2nd at Syracuse

Comment From The Masses
Hey Zimmy, how do you calculate the exact time at which a player becomes rated? Is it a complex mathematical equation churned out by a supercomputer or does God send down a sign from the high heavens?

Dan Szymborski: I go into a forest and let pareidolia work its magic.

Comment From Dan
Since it’s me, think Belnome should be getting a shot somewhere with the Rays? I’m certainly curious what his MLE is thusfar, and D looks passable.

Dan Szymborski: I know which Dan this is!

Dan Szymborski: I’d like to see him get a shot somewhere as a utility guy

Comment From Matt
what is Dominic Brown on and where can we get it?

Dan Szymborski: It’s a reverse-ET thing. The suckier Delmon Young plays, the more power Domonic Brown gets.

Dan Szymborski: Or like that terrible episode of Star Trek TNG in which some federation negotiator sucks life force out of women that are into him.

Comment From Blue Bluebirds
Give me some hope for Josh Johnson…or is there really none to be had?

Dan Szymborski: Very worried. The continued degradation of his command is extremely worrying.

Comment From Guest
What would you do with Profar when Kinsler comes back from injury?

Dan Szymborski: Kinsler in left short-term, explore trades in offseason

Comment From laxtonto
At what point do people need to accept that Hamilton might not regress back to his historical mean and instead develop a new trend line for a rebound expectation?

Dan Szymborski: Never, appparently. But at least that gives me easy article topic.

Comment From Greg Lamb
What’s up with Zach Greinke?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been strangely erratic. I think perhaps they brought him back too quickly

Comment From Nicky
Is it time to worry about Matt Cain?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t yet. He just got the xFIP gods really angry.

Dan Szymborski: Well, I’d still worry about him, but because he’s a pitcher.

Comment From Dan
What intellectual references would you like Damien Sandow to make in the near future on Raw/smackdown? Also, thoughts on the final word in the spelling bee being something 10 different spellings SHOULD be “right” for?

Dan Szymborski: Speak only in dactylic hexameter.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not up on the latest Spelling Bee news.

Dan Szymborski: However, as a policy, spelling bees should be chock-full of homonyms because it wood make children cry.

Comment From Taylor M
Should I drop Nicasio in a deep dynasty league? He stinks!

Dan Szymborski: In a deep dynasty, I’d still hang onto him

Comment From sea salt
will Nick Franklin hit over 12 hr’s the rest of the way?

Dan Szymborski: no

Comment From Guest
Brewers just called up Scooter Gennett. Will he out perform Weeks ROS?

Dan Szymborski: I still prefer WEeks

Comment From JoeyB
Should I sell out my farm team in roto to get Heyward?

Dan Szymborski: I would not. You should be able to get a better deal than usual right now and Heyward does some things that roto doesn’t really reward.

Comment From zack
Has matt carpenter played Wong out of the job?

Dan Szymborski: Short-term, possibly. We’ll have to see what the Cards see as their needs in offsseason

Comment From Fred Wilpon
What do you do in the offseason if you were Sandy to fix the Mets?

Dan Szymborski: Regicide? What do you call owner killign?

Dan Szymborski: Douchebagcide?

Comment From zack
Do you see Dominic brown as a solid big league regular?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, though not quite to this degree. I think he’ll be average-to-good

Comment From Dan
Do you believe in the “new” Neal Cotts? What about new Coello? Think the latter will ever give up another grounder…?

Dan Szymborski: Cotts has been pretty frigging awesome.

Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t even walking guys in the minors this year.

Dan Szymborski: Even in his good ERA year years ago, he was pretty erratic

Dan Szymborski: Though Scott Rice appearing int he majors is even wackier alternate universe stuff

Dan Szymborski: Who would’ve thought 6 years ago that Scott Rice would play in the majors after Ben Sheets retired?

Comment From Dan
Much rather be incinerated than end up with the Royals!

Comment From Mike
Please reassure me that the Cardinals will not continue to hit .341 (.402 BABIP!) with runners in scoring position all season.

Dan Szymborski: They won’t.

Comment From Eminor3rd
Can the ZiPs computer make the White Sox better? Can I bribe you to fudge the projections you send up to Elias, the Roman God of Baseball Results?

Dan Szymborski: If I had such power, do you think Scott Podsednik would have ever started for the White Sox?

Comment From Baroque
I wouldn’t consider Bartolo Colon an “active ballplayer.” I mean, he currently plays baseball in the major leagues, but his figure does not suggest someone who is active.

Comment From Danny
Rendon? Can he stay healthy enough to be a legitimate major leaguer? Projections?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be good. Not going to bank on his health

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
Ernesto Frieri :: Carlos Marmol as….

Dan Szymborski: Hmm

Dan Szymborski: Andronikos I Komnenos :: Artaxerxes V of Persia.

Dan Szymborski: There, chew on that one for awhiel

Comment From JT
Is that a joke about a Robot Chicken skit to start the chat? *starts slow clap*

Dan Szymborski: Technically, it was a Thundercats joke

Comment From Andrew
Assuming you agree with replacing Espinosa with Rendon at 2B, when would you do it?

Dan Szymborski: Couple weeks after he plays.

Comment From zack
Is there any defensible reason for playing delmon on a daily basis in the outfield?

Dan Szymborski: Humor.

Dan Szymborski: A few more and then time to go.

Comment From Russ
Camden Yards, is Coors Field east … every fly ball goes to the track or further …..That is all

Dan Szymborski: It doesn’t, however, have the single/double exploding that Coors does

Dan Szymborski: Camden lately has just been a mild-to-decent hitters’ park, not a crazy haven.

Comment From Carmack
Is Brandon Moss done as a productive option this year? 230/300/430 rest of way?

Dan Szymborski: I *told* you guys not to be too excited!

Comment From Derb
How did it miss Ohio? Because nothing wants to go to Ohio!

Comment From Tom
Cardinals have the best record in baseball with Pete Kozma as their starting SS. Think they upgrade the position or is it really even necessary?

Dan Szymborski: Ideally they should, but I don’t think they will.

Comment From Jordan
I suppose that was poorly worded re: Ozuna. Of course the average will go down but is he actually an above average OF?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say above average yet

Comment From Eric
Will Jason Heyward turn it around?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Jeff
Is it time to stash Daniel Hudson? Beachey or Hudson?

Dan Szymborski: Beachy probably the more interesting stash, but both are stashable.

Comment From shane spinser
Thoughts on RA Dickey?

Dan Szymborski: @#$*%&@#()*%

Comment From The New York Mess
Chances Wilpons sell team this decade? or are they charlton heston “cold dead hands” for the rest of their natural lives?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’ll be more of an involuntary seizure than a voluntary sale

Comment From Ken
Do you want to punch anyone that refers to Asdrubal Cabrera as “Droobs”?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. Asdrubal is an EPIC NAME

Comment From GSon
The Wizard of Koz proven he’s worthy of playing middle infield for the Red Birds. Does this change Mozielak’s approach come the trading deadline

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he has. Average bWAR and fWAR and his pace is 1.3 WAR.

Comment From Aaron
Diagnose Jason Heyward’s struggles. Appendectomy didn’t help. And up until last couple weeks he was experiencing historical levels of bad BABIP luck. What do you make of it?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be fine, honestly.

Dan Szymborski: Beltre had an awful year after his appendectomy too

Dan Szymborski: I wonder if I can find enough historical appendectomies in baseball

Comment From Jordan
Is Scooter an appropriate name for a grown man if said grown man is not a professional baseballer?

Dan Szymborski: In the 1950s maybe.

Dan Szymborski: I want a player to be nicknamed Soda Pop

Comment From guy
Adam Dunn has had an awful career after his appendectomy.

Comment From the Gregorius D.I.D.(i)
no day games today 🙁

Dan Szymborski: Every day should have a baseball day game.

Dan Szymborski: Well, unless the season’s over.

Dan Szymborski: If there are at least 4 games, there should be a 12:05, a 3:05, a 7:05, and a 10:05 every day.

Dan Szymborski: EDT/EST, AKA AwesomeTime.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to go! Thanks for coming y’all.

Dan Szymborski: (using my rustic drawl typing style)

Dan Szymborski: As usual, you can find me at ESPN.com, chats and projections at FanGraphs, DSzymborski on Twitter, Steam, etc. etc.

Dan Szymborski: The second piece in my draft pick set is scheduled to run tomorrow, in which I look at team value over expectations for every draft pick in history

Dan Szymborski: Last week, if you missed it, I did a non-linear 9-year WAR expectation model based on every draft pick in history.

Dan Szymborski: And ranked the top 100 picks ever for value.

Dan Szymborski: SEE YOU AT THE PARTY, RICHTER!