Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/3/15

Dan Szymborski: Here we are, face to face, a couple of Silver Spoons.

Dan Szymborski: Hoping to find, we’re to of a kind, making a go, making it grow

Dan Szymborski: Together, we’re going to find a way.

Dan Szymborski: Also, I misspelled two.

Comment From Professor Ross Eforp
Who might be the next Wade Davis? Is there any way to identify these guys ahead of time?

Dan Szymborski: To this degree, not really. He always had a good strikeout rate in relief, but his velocity has improved in an off the charts way in relief

Dan Szymborski: Put it this way – if it was easy, everyone would do it

Comment From Joe
Are you worried about Cutch’s knee? LOLOLOLOLOLOLOL

Dan Szymborski: Heh

Comment From Northsider
As of this moment, who is the NL ROY Pederson or Bryant?

Dan Szymborski: Would have to be Joc right now.

Dan Szymborski: He’s actually hit better than Bryant and at this stage of the season, those extra 2 weeks is like 25% of the season

Comment From Julio Pepper
Will Harris == Wade Davis

Dan Szymborski: Results-wise, there are worse picks, but I don’t think he has Davis’s stuff

Comment From laxtonto
Can you explain to me how statistics work?

Dan Szymborski: Hundreds of years ago, Henry Percy (I forget which one) was at war with one of the Kings Henry (I forget which one) and Percy had one of the royalist castles besieged

Dan Szymborski: Percy needed to reduce the castle, so he sent a cadre of the stupidest people to charge the castle so that he could save his more elite troops

Dan Szymborski: The royalists were about to break, but then they got the idea to fill up their culverins with numbers and greek symbols. They killed all of Percy’s men and Percy could only retreat, muttering about small sample size

Dan Szymborski: And thus, statistics were born

Comment From Julio Pepper
It bothers me that Andruw Jones is probably never going to be in the Hall of Fame. He had 9 straight 5+ WAR seasons before turned 30(!!), and multiple 7+ ones. Gimme some solace man.

Dan Szymborski: Can’t give you solace. Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen are going to get one-and-outed too.

Comment From laxtonto
How does Zips view Gallo?

Dan Szymborski: Upper 700s OPS guy right now

Comment From Professor Ross Eforp
Zach McAllister I hope is an answer to my previous query 🙂

Dan Szymborski: McAllister always feels like he should be better than it is

Comment From Small Wonder or Silver Spoons, ROS?
Hi Dan! Noticed on the pitch type page that Taijuan Walker didn’t throw any cutters during his last start, which also happened to be (by a generous margin) his best of the year. Is that a pitch fx discrepancy or potentially the sign of a new tack? Could it be a turning point of some kind? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: It could be a discrepancy – pitch categorization isn’t an exact science. I haven’t looked at Walker’s last start myself

Comment From Maltzy
Are the Reds really gonna start Skip Schumaker in LF with Byrd on the shelf?

Dan Szymborski: It’s possible given that the Reds are operating under the mistaken illusion that Skip Schumaker should be an MLB player.

Comment From laxtonto
At what point does Texas go full youth movement?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll have to drop out of the race first, I think.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think this is a good enough teams.

Comment From laxtonto
What is the underlying distributions used for normalization in Zips?

Dan Szymborski: In what context? ZiPS doesn’t use pre-fab curves.

Comment From laxtonto
Do you think Beltre has enough left in his tank to get to 3k hits?

Dan Szymborski: I still believe so

Comment From Kevin
Has there ever been any compelling evidence of certain pitchers being foul ball prone? Not just contact prone in general, specifically guys who seem to be plagued by foul balls and extended counts.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t looked specifically at this issue before and I’m unaware of something specifically on this issue

Comment From laxtonto
What is the difference between a confidence interval and a prediction interval?

Dan Szymborski: Non-random unknown vs. Random unobserved.

Dan Szymborski: But your’e a PHD candidate Ben and it’s cheating to ask questions you know the answer to!

Comment From Josh G
Do you see Ryan Zimmerman turning things around? All of his peripherals look relatively in line with his career numbers. Is this just a BABIP issue or is the plantar fasciitis to blame?

Dan Szymborski: The injuries could be reducing his “real” BABIP to an extent, but I don’t think .240 or whereve he is now is real

Comment From Tipper
Care to make a scientific wild-ass guess and predict Gallo’s batted ball profile over the next two weeks (assuming he does go to AAA when Beltre is healthy)?

Dan Szymborski: I imagine he’ll be very three true outcomy

Comment From MotorboatJones
Has there ever been a failed starter, converted to successful reliever, who in turn is converted back to a successful starter?

Dan Szymborski: Ryan Dempster kinda

Comment From Ron
In your view, who is the toughest player in the MLB? Orso el blanco has to be up there, no?

Dan Szymborski: It’s still Cobb. He’s only dead because he doesn’t currently wish to be alive.

Comment From Ann Rand
I’m looking to package Fowler and Wacha for a better SP. Who would you be looking to target?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell without knowing who’s available

Comment From JG
Thanks for that chat Dan. It seems to me that the recent discussions regarding effect of batted ball profiles on hitting success is one that could benefit from a controlled experiment rather than trying to tease information out of noisy signal from actual baseball games played by players (esp wrt HR/FB). It’s not too hard to imagine a team setting up a pitching machine on home plate and firing out balls with a variety of exit velocity, spin, angle, etc. under a variety of atmospheric conditions and doing a set of experiments to see where balls launched under different conditions land. Any idea if any teams do anything like that?

Dan Szymborski: I’m unaware of any team trying this. I’d actually be interested to see this kind of thing, though it’s also hard to get a pitching machine to simulate a real life pitcher.

Dan Szymborski: I think in a lot of ways, we’re stuck with the reality we have right now. A lot of analysis is trying to tease some kind of signal out of inherently noisy data

Comment From Keeper? I hardly know her
What do you think of Mike Fiers? He seems so good on paper but keeps having rough outings

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s really just a mid rotation guy and sometimes people get too excited

Comment From Daniel
With the recent success of young, high K% and high BB% sluggers; is there any reason to be overly concered about Gallo’s ability to stay in the bigs?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not overly concerned. Strikeout rate can be overrated for hitters that are hitting well.

Comment From Phillies113
Leverage Index numbers are based off of past win expectancies, given a number of factors (score, base/out state, etc.), right? So, do the LI’s change year to year depending on how often the WE’s change? Is this change gradual or sudden?

Dan Szymborski: Depends on the implementation really.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not positive how often these weights are recalculated

Comment From hscer
Who will remember how to hit first, Ian Desmond or Ryan Zimmerman?

Dan Szymborski: Desmond probably

Comment From Kev
Expectations for Wieters rest of season? Would you drop grandal to get him in your line up?

Dan Szymborski: Too much uncertainty about Wieters

Comment From Northsider
Speaking of Wade Davis…. Do you see him ever starting again?

Dan Szymborski: No

Comment From laxtonto
Do you expect the major international scandals in FIFA to have an impact in how the WBC is ran?

Comment From Tony
When looking at FIP, why do we assume/think/know that pitchers have control in some aspect to their home run rates, but not other batted ball? Maybe I’m thinking of it wrong, and FIP doesn’t include BIP but just HAS to include HR because it simply ISN’T a BIP…

Dan Szymborski: Hmm, answer to previous didn’t appear. That’s also No

Dan Szymborski: We only assume because while not to the degree of BB/K, HR rate is still far more predictive than hit-in-play results

Dan Szymborski: Just as an example (see my most recent ESPN piece for more on this), through May, using April/May data and ZiPS, the best predictor of rest-of-season-HR rate over the last decade has been 76% projection, 24% actual. For BABIP, it’s 93% projection, 7% actual. HR rate is noisy, but nowhere near the degree of the other hit ball stuff

Comment From Josh G
Is there any chance Lloyd McClendon wakes up and puts Carson Smith in at closer or will the stubbornness continue?

Dan Szymborski: Eventually perhaps. McClendon has a history of taking forever to demote closers that seem to have lost the plot (Mike Williams, Jose Mesa)

Comment From Annoyed Red Sox fan
Why is Mookie’s BABIP so low???

Dan Szymborski: Because a low percentage of his balls hit into play have become hits. He’ll be fine.

Comment From Jake
Would you trade JD Martinez for Stephen Strasburg in fantasy? Do you think Strasburg gets back to normal/projections?

Dan Szymborski: I think I would, but it depends on my exact situation

Comment From Maltzy
Is Jesse Winker broken?

Dan Szymborski: Too soon to say that, but there is concern

Dan Szymborski: What is it about Pensacola that’s derailing Reds prospects? See Robert Stephenson. Does the clubhouse water have lead in it?

Comment From mtsw
Would you advise Orioles fans to crack each others skulls open and feast on the goo inside? Team’s worst case scenario is rapidly becoming reality.

Dan Szymborski: I would be concerned, but let’s be honest – the AL East is kinda crappy.

Comment From hscer
Kenny Lofton was a one-and-done too. If he’d played for 2 or 3 teams with the exact same statistics, he’d have been given a better shot.

Dan Szymborski: (Also as a note, I’m saving off-topic questions for the Lightning Round)

Dan Szymborski: (So if I didn’t answer your off-topic question, it’s likely that I’ve reserved it. Having a LIghtning Round keeps us on topic during the main drag)

Comment From zackleftyp
Adam Jones or Starling Marte ROS? ZiPS seems to favor Jones still

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d slightly take Jones too

Comment From Joe
How many tries would it take before Bartolo Colon succesfully reached base on an attempt to bunt for a hit? Errors and Fielder’s choice don’t count

Dan Szymborski: A ton probably. I assume we’re not letting the infield change positions.

Dan Szymborski: After the first 50 attempt, they might notice a pattern and play halfway down the baseline

Comment From John
how often does the ROS and depth charts projections update?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS ROS updates every morning, couldn’t tell you how they run the depth chart

Dan Szymborski: As I tell you guys almost every week, specific FanGraphs function questions are very poorly answered by me.

Comment From laxtonto
At what point do you see the currently level of analytics to become overvalued due to their inability to deal with the extremes? The true holy grail in predictive modeling in an area like baseball is trying to identify the extreme rightail outliers. Most systems fail at the extremes and therefore are limited to predict and isolate the true “elite” players. Are we eventually moving to an area of neural networks or complex multilevel predictive models?

Dan Szymborski: ANything can be overvalued if used a certain way. I don’t think inability to deal with extremes is necessarily a problem – unlikely things are unlikely and don’t become likely just because they did happen.

Comment From Sean
Mark DeRosa thinks Torii Hunter is more valuable than Bryce Harper.

Dan Szymborski: Did he say that? Yikes

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure there are people that think Nickelback write better music than Shostakovich too. We don’t have lifeguards for our gene pool.

Comment From John
Sorry, didnt finish – ie, Hernan Perez, now on the brewers, now in line for considerably more playing time than the current projections?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s good enough to successfully carve out a really significant role

Dan Szymborski: Unless the Brewers are stupid, which is possible.

Comment From Northsider
O/U on comments today containing the My Cousin Vinnie line about Joey Gallo being dead? 4.5

Comment From Bigglesworth
What happens to Ethier when Puig returns ? LF platoon. They will really have a glut of outfielders with Van Slyke, Guerrero, and Crawford (when/if he’s back. Seems like somebody’s got to be part of a package for a pitcher.

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll play it by ear

Comment From Joe
Didn’t Price have Schumaker batting leadoff for a few games? I think that tells you all you need to know about Bryan Price.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I railed at that

Comment From Brian
Can we assume April was a fluke and the Indians still have a very real chance at winning the Central? They have been performing just fine offensively and we have 4 guys capable of pitching like aces. I’m pretty confident going into June.

Dan Szymborski: Their chances are looking better, but it’s always hard starting off behind. Remember, coming into the season, they had to be 1 game better than the Twins, Royals, Tigers, and White Sox over 162. No wthey have to be 6 games better than the Twins and Royals and 3 games better thahn the Tigers over 110 or so. That’s tougher road.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
Matt Shoemaker’s FIP and ERA are almost identical. Is he doomed this season because of all the homers, or is there any hope to be found in his nice K% – BB%?

Dan Szymborski: I would hardly say doomed, he’s just not a front-rotation guy. As long as expectations are realistic, there’s no reason to be disappointed

Comment From Jeff
Are you ready to accept Kevin Owens as your new lord and savior?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Scooby
Thoughts on Phil Hughes and any potential upside ROS? It appears that last year was just an outlier — or was it?

Dan Szymborski: I’m atually far more worried about the dropoff in strikeouts

Dan Szymborski: Than the homers

Dan Szymborski: I was optimistic coming into the season, but I’m concerned now

Comment From Josh G
Do you think Pujols will reach 700 home runs? Does he have any shot at the record?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe he will make 700 home runs.

Dan Szymborski: There’s some chance — the future is very uncertain — but it’s a longshot to get 762.

Comment From mtsw
Who do you like more today for fantasy purposes: Lackey vs MIL or E-Rod vs MIN?

Dan Szymborski: Lackeydaisical

Comment From Brian
Can you think of a time when a closer on a decent team has gone without a save opportunity as long as Cecil has?

Dan Szymborski: No idea off hand

Comment From Derp
People seem pretty high on Kang right now. Has anybody succeeded with such a pronounced leg kick in the majors? Seems like a lot of moving parts for a guy if he’s going to get around on MLB fastballs.

Dan Szymborski: People have succeeded with all sorts of batting stances and mechanics. Tony Batista even had his moments and he looked freaky out there

Comment From Tipper
Regarding Beltre, what about getting to 500 homers?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll get 3000, but I think he’ll fall short of 500

Comment From Gary
What do you think of the Hall of Fame enshrining “best of class” players even if they don’t meet usual value thresholds? Like, if we all thought Omar Vizquel was the greatest defensive shortstop in history, do you think that would make someone worthy even if they only had 40 WAR?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s kinda silly. Players are their high points and their low points.

Comment From Bill
Thoughts on Tommy Milone being called up? 1.69 FIP in 5 AAA starts this year and a 16:1 K/BB ratio. Also .70 ERA

Dan Szymborski: He’s still Milone. Likely a decent inning-eater but not exciting

Comment From mtsw
Dumb that Ichiro Suzuki will get a lot of credit for his time in NPB in HoF consideration but Andruw Jones won’t get any extra credit for several star NPB seasons after leaving MLB?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From Hans
When do you think Odor finally gets another crack at 2B? Think he’ll put it together whenever he does come back?

Dan Szymborski: I’m still cautiously optimistic

Comment From laxtonto
All models have an underlying distributions. Even it is based off of a true random seed, the distribution is uniform in nature. Was just curious if you fall into the baseball is a normal population for approximation camp or not

Dan Szymborski: Baseball isn’t normal

Comment From Nils
Bauer is off to a good start, is this the kind of performance we can expect from him over the next 4-5 years?

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not get ahead of ourselves.

Comment From Rossi
The majority of Bryce Harper’s homers have been on outside pitches. Could you see the inevitable adjustment in how pitchers approach him bringing him back down to Earth at least a little bit or will the monster breakout go on without interruption?

Dan Szymborski: Everybody comes down to earth a little bit. Baseball is a game of constant adjustments. Harper is one of the most talented players in the game and I think he’ll adjust.

Comment From Not+Big+Trouble+in+Little+China+too!
Is there any chance Gallo hits well enough to stay up? Or a better formulation, what do you think Gallo needs to do to stay up (roughly speaking)?

Dan Szymborski: There’s at least a chance. There’s no X OPS = Y time in majors, it’s going to depend on what the situation is

Comment From Not+Big+Trouble+in+Little+China+too!
Is J. Berrios going to get a shot for the Twins?

Dan Szymborski: The Twins don’t want to rush him, but if they’re hanging around the division race in August, there’s enough meh in the Twins rotation to make ti a hard decision for them

Comment From Happy Fun Ball
The Reds’ illusion that Schumaker should be a MLB player pales in comparison to their illusion that they should be a contender

Dan Szymborski: It’s all part of the same bundle of illusion

Comment From Reginald Denton III
Will Gallo be a three true outcome guy, or merely a two outcome guy? How often will he take walks?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not going to be a walk god, but he will draw some

Comment From Christian
Is it time for Mariners fans to withdraw heavily from their alcohol stockpile to black out for the rest of the season?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From laxtonto
these questions because I hope that somebody else reading them will learn something.. Most people dont know the right questions to ask because they dont know.. those that do know never ask the question

Comment From Varys
Anyone need a good eunuch to hear the whispers from Oakland? I hear nobody’s been able to crack their org for trade rumors. Call me!

Dan Szymborski: I have never been able to guess WTF the A’s are about to do.

Comment From Joe
No presidential brawl? Did everyone else give up when they realized they would have to eventually face an actual boxer, who gave a 90 minute speech in between getting shot in the chest and, you know, seeing a doctor about it?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t do them on weeks when I’m not at normal time

Comment From laxtonto
I guess it is time to write a grant request to MLB and ask for tons of money to create a MLB baseline for batted ball profiles?

Comment From neal
When Pederson hits a home run, is it a Joc Jam?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure if that would be amazing or terrible. Possibly both.

Comment From Jack Elliott
I know sabermetrics would like to see RISP die. However, Verducci had an interesting article on how Adrian Gonzalez is one of the greatest batters w/RISP in history despite a lower batting avg. Maybe something Sabermetricians should look into?

Dan Szymborski: But here’s the thing – the analysis only would make sense for a couple players after more than a decade and it would have no real-life effect on usage

Comment From laxtonto
At what point does the perceived view or blueprint for success from the previous generation of baseball executives begin to conflict with the current generation of upcoming players? The stigma of the strikeout has shrunk considerably..

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s always a conflict between old and new.

Comment From hscer
If someone is hitting well with a number of strikeouts, aren’t they probably compensating with unsustainable BABIP or HR/FB?

Dan Szymborski: Dpends, but they’re separate issues.

Dan Szymborski: Even though related

Comment From JG
Dan, re: pitching machine/batted ball. I was actually suggesting taking the hitter out of the equation entirely. The pitching machine would be the hitter this case, simulating various batted ball profiles as they leave home plate and where they end up. That would take out a lot of uncertainty re: deception, batter squaring up the ball, etc. and simplify the question to: “If a ball leaves home plate with the following velocity, angle, spin, etc., where does it land?”

Comment From hscer
Do I have any of the following right? the FG system is nice because it gives hitters 100% credit for non BB/K/HR and pitchers 0% credit. Even if the balance is closer to 85-15 or whatever, it’s good enough. Meanwhile the BR system gives hitters 100% credit but also gives pitchers more than 0%

Dan Szymborski: It’s a matter of exactly what question you’re trying to answer. ZiPS WAR tends to be somewhere in the middle.

Dan Szymborski: If I did a zWAR, it would be a constantly shifting balance based on career data

Dan Szymborski: Which would piss people off because I think Tom Glavine’s WAR in 1992 *should* be higher in 2015 than in 1992 using the same method.

Comment From laxtonto
Have you ever considered working with median regression to determine weights instead of OLS? Just to see if nonparametric and parametric version come close to each other?

Dan Szymborski: I have not – most of my focus has been dealing with new data

Comment From a eskpert
With defense and pitching being made up entirely of fangraphs contributors, who of Prince Fielder and Billy Hamilton hits more home runs per plate appearance (including the inside the park variety).

Dan Szymborski: Hamilton

Comment From Josh G
Does a pitcher’s control have any impact on catchers’ pitch framing metrics?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a possibility. We are still very early in the world of pitch framing metrics

Comment From Maltzy
Who are the potential GM’s that seem to be the most analytically inclined? I forsee the old guard of GM’s, guys like Jocketty, phasing out and slowly a majority of GM spots go to the type of people that read fangraphs.

Dan Szymborski: Coppolella is the msot exciting future GM I think

Comment From Not+Big+Trouble+in+Little+China+too!
Is there a good free resource for minor league contact%?

Dan Szymborski: There is not, outside of checking BA’s minor league transactions

Comment From mtsw
Any reason to think the Orioles are wise to stick with Travis Snider over David Lough for the rest of the season?

Dan Szymborski: I rather have Snider

Comment From Art Vandelay
So you guys are in the REALLY BIG HoF camp, huh? I hope it’s just about the one-and-done and you don’t actually believe Kenny Lofton is a hall of famer.

Dan Szymborski: He’s borderline, but there should have been an actual discussion

Dan Szymborski: That’s not really big hall – I personally have him 11th among centerfielders, behind Edmonds and Beltran and ahead of Ashburn and Carey.

Dan Szymborski: Oops, make that 12th

Dan Szymborski: My top 10 is Cobb, Mays, Speaker, Mantle, DiMaggio, Griffey, Hamilton, Andruw, Snider, Edmonds

Comment From laxtonto
At what point should teams monitor pitch fx for release point variation as a sign of pitcher fatigue vs the eyeball test? From a biomechanics standpoint the fatigue generated int he shoulder will manifest itself earliest in the repeatability of the release point.. why not use that to determine how “tired” a pitcher is?

Dan Szymborski: I think having the data is *always* useful.

Dan Szymborski: Especially if they’re crossreferencing it with their notes

Comment From Art Vandelay
Do you prefer red-eyes or daytime flights? (red-eyes all the way for me)

Dan Szymborski: depends how late the red-eye is. If it’s a flight I stay up late for, then red-eye, but if it’s one far enough into the night that I have to *WAKE UP* for it, then daytime

Comment From Nevets
Does ZiPS have a way of handling special cases like Mike Moustakas who appears to be having a good season not from luck but from a completely different approach?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS can’t capture things if they’re not, on some level, filtering into stats

Comment From RYAN
just catching up and i read a comment about the next wade davis and I realized last night that Daniel Hudson was throwing 96-98 and touched 99. I dont know how accurate those readings but figured it was interesting

Dan Szymborski: I’m very happy to see him pitch with velocity this year. He was hitting good numbers briefly last year too

Comment From Abe
Do foreign leagues use advanced stats like the MLB, to a lesser extent, or mostly just go about things the old fashioned way?

Dan Szymborski: More rudimentary

Comment From Norm
Do you think managers realize when one of their hitters have been unlucky thus far, eg. low BABIP, and refuse to platoon them? For example, does Farrell realize Mookie Betts has been unlucky?

Dan Szymborski: Depends. Sometimes

Comment From hscer
Let’s be honest–the AL East is super crappy.

Comment From Donald
If the pendulum swings back one day as it inevitably will, and kids are evaluated less on velocity as people try to protect UCLs better, will a statistic emerge to measure “control” in a reliable way? Or will walk rate etc. remain the only way to evaluate something so complex?

Dan Szymborski: I expect someday we’ll have printed artificial UCLs that are installed prophylactically.

Comment From Maltzy
Come on, nickelback wrote a song about Fangraphs

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

Comment From The Lindor Question
Lindor’s .258/.338/.368 slash line to date – given the clamor for Lindor, that’s a pretty underwhelming translated line, no? And though the scouting reports bear out Lindor as a clearly superior defender, how likely is it that it translates into a noticeably better defensive performance?

Dan Szymborski: Underwhelming, but it’s also in the IL. I haven’t checked his translation myself

Comment From Steve
Would Bumgarner fall into tier 1 aside from Kershaw/Felix?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: Bumgarner is a dependable pitcher and typically a safe bet. But he’s never had a real Cy Young-type season.

Comment From hscer
Does ZiPS project everything that goes into fWAR so they can calculate it, or does it actually produce an fWAR projection?

Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs derives the WAR

Comment From laxtonto
Do people use random walk models to play with classic up and down streakyness of the baseball season?

Dan Szymborski: I believe a number of approaches have been taken

Comment From Bret
Hey Dan – if a team called you into their pre-draft meetings and asked for advice, what would you tell them? Any specific strategy you’d be a proponent of, or perhaps something to avoid?

Dan Szymborski: I would tell them that I am unable to offer advice due to my current job.

Dan Szymborski: But as long as we’re talking theoretically, I think the most important plan pre-draft is to not be too rigid about your plan. Good plans have flexbility.

Dan Szymborski: And I would draft for value more than need. Players can be traded. OH NO WE HAVE A GREAT PITCHING STAFF BUT ALSO GREAT PITCHING PROSPECTS has been a problem for people no time ever.

Comment From Brian
Would you contradict ZIPS and pick Harper over Stanton right now?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From hscer
Of course, Ichiro doesn’t actually *need* that NPB time to be a hall of famers

Dan Szymborski: The point is that NPB credit seems to be given and withheld arbitrarily

Comment From laxtonto
do you need an intern?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t mind, but an intern for me a little difficult since I’m mostly at home and you’re overqualified to intern for me.

Comment From JJJJShabado
Past or present: Game show you’d most like to be on? Game show you’d think you’d be the best at?

Dan Szymborski: Jeopardy. Jeopardy.

Comment From Dan
Think Joc Pederson has a chance to pass Shawn Green as best Jewish outfielder when all is said and done?

Dan Szymborski: He has a solid chance.

Comment From Jack Elliott
RISP analysis would have no real life effect on usage? It’s just a matter if some batters are choosing to make contact rather than sell out for power w/RISP. The real life implication is where to place them in the lineup and if a batter has the ability to change their profile based on the situation. This could be discovered easily in the minors.

Dan Szymborski: Only if the difference is significant. You can’t just assume that finding outliers like Adrian Gonzalez is simply a matter of choice and efort

Comment From mtsw
Basketball analytics guys long derided the idea of the “hot hand” despite insistence by players it exists. But newer, more robust data suggests that it actually does exist, it just couldn’t be proven without better player tracking. Do you think there’s a good chance something similar could happen in baseball and HitFX/Statcast whatever will prove clutch hitting exists in some meaningful way?

Dan Szymborski: Interesting. Again, we have to see what the data say. I dont’ like speculating on what we will find without actually looking

Comment From Dan
Don’t you think the HOF should consider relative population and expansion in evaluating players? I’ve long said they should. I mean, today we have twice the teams we had in 1960 and three times what there were in 1899. And, now we have 3X the population, a much higher percentage of players with the ability to play and a larger international pool of players.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it should be that linear, but there should still be more. For some years of the 1930s, *25%* of PA and IP were by current Hall of Famers.

Comment From hscer
More useless: following your favorite athlete on Twitter, or following your Congressman?

Dan Szymborski: politician probably more useless for me. I stay out of politics on twitter almost entirely

Comment From laxtonto
I would actually treat it like a control chart with an incontrol out of control area and then look for calssic pattern analysis issues

Comment From hscer
“I expect someday we’ll have printed artificial UCLs that are installed prophylactically.” It’s sentences like this that make me sometimes wish I’d been born earlier. Did you realize this year is the midway point between 1980 and 2050? Starting in 2050 in SimCity 2000 used to seem futuristic.

Dan Szymborski: PLEASE DONT REMIND ME THAT I’M ABOUT HALFWAY TO 75

Comment From mtsw
Do you prefer readers asking you if a guy is “for real” or asking if a guy is “legit?” Asking for a friend?

Dan Szymborski: For real because I can make jokes about the nature of existence

Comment From laxtonto
with the timeline so far out in the draft talent acquisition mode via the draft, isnt it asine to try to draft any other way outside of BPA? If it takes years for a pick to make the MLB, then trying to draft for need has no real value.

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but some teams still draft for value

Comment From laxtonto
What is your accepted level of statistical significance when you discuss analysis?

Dan Szymborski: You know it depends on the question.

Comment From TKDC
If your model (ZiPs) were a super model (i.e. Tyra Banks), who would she be?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm

Comment From Maltzy
Nickelback’s fangraph song https://www.youtube.com/wat…

Dan Szymborski: OK, we’re well past 1. So let’s get the Lightning Round going. The rules are that I have to answer *any* off-topic question, with a few exceptions (work related, extremely explicit,e tc)

Dan Szymborski: AND GO

Comment From Blizzard
Just got into Hearthstone. Help a new guy out any hints/tips would be greatly appreciated. Also do plan on ever factoring things such as spin rate into Zips down the line, obviously there needs to be more data on it, but could it be useful for forecasting?

Dan Szymborski: Focus on aggressive inexpensive decks like zoolock and hunter – you won’t have the cards for some of the control decks. Also if you like the game and will keep playing, invest in the Naxx expansion as there are a lot of necessary cards in there

Dan Szymborski: (Mad Scientist and Sludge Belcher are very hard to do without and Haunted Creeper and Loatheb are excellent)

Comment From @RationalMLBfan
Have you defeated FF6 with the minimum party of Celes, Edgar, and Setzer? It’s tough in the early going of World of Ruin, and navigating Kefka’s tower requires repeated sharing of weapons and relics, but you end up with a different ending.

Dan Szymborski: I have not. I hate ruining the ending.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve done the four white mage FF1 challenge though!

Comment From Art Vandelay
Are you excited for Fallout 4? I just can’t seem to get hyped for it.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll enjoy it, but I don’t dig post-apocalyptic settings all that much

Comment From riley martin
Kang or Kodos?

Dan Szymborski: Kodos because Kang will now have a Shearer soundalike

Comment From laxtonto
Your thoughts on Fallout4 and the Witcher3?

Dan Szymborski: Witcher 3 on my to-play list

Comment From Joe
Favorite song of all time. Go!

Dan Szymborski: Kinks Waterloo Sunset

Comment From hscer
Is Gone With The Wind for reel?

Dan Szymborski: I’m sure it was made on reels

Comment From John
Entourage this weekend?

Dan Szymborski: Not t he kind of thing I see in theater

Comment From R+L=J
Was the Hardhome battle the best of the show?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From John
proposal – ok at a sporting event if not on jumbotron?

Dan Szymborski: No, unless given in a way without subtle onlooker pressure

Comment From Haze
What was your final ranking in Hearthstone ladder play in May?

Dan Szymborski: 17. I only played 18 ranked games in May.

Comment From laxtonto
How do you make a peanut-butter sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t. I eat peanut butter on spoon or not at all

Comment From Josh G
Should the U.S. join the rest of the world and use bidets?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, just as long as I don’t have to use a squat toilet

Comment From L. Scott
what are the top 3 games you play on your mobile device ?

Dan Szymborski: Hearthstone, Catan, Trivia Crack

Comment From laxtonto
Is it more likely that you run out of good ideas or run out of ways to analyze then?

Dan Szymborski: Ways to analyze

Comment From Curtis
Peanuts or Cracker Jacks at a ball game?

Dan Szymborski: Peanuts. Unsalted.

Comment From Josh G
Adult beverage of choice?

Dan Szymborski: Beer

Comment From laxtonto
What are your thoughts on Spinach? Gummy candies? Cat food?

Dan Szymborski: I like spinach if its raw. I don’t care for gummy candies. I don’t eat cat food, but my cats appear to enjoy it.

Comment From Josh G
What’s your middle name?

Dan Szymborski: John

Comment From Curtis
soup or salad with sandwich for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: Soup

Comment From Curtis
Best thing about the 1970s was________________________________________.

Dan Szymborski: the beginning of my existence, obviously.

Comment From laxtonto
Is it better to loved and lost or to have never loved at all?

Dan Szymborski: Loved and lost.

Comment From laxtonto
Have you ever seen a UFO?

Dan Szymborski: Yes, in that I’ve seen objects that I am unable to identify. I am not an expert in planes or birds.

Dan Szymborski: Of alien origin, probably not

Comment From Maltzy
Batman or Iron man?

Dan Szymborski: Batman.

Comment From laxtonto
The cat is really the one in charge and keeping me from an internship… admit it!!

Dan Szymborski: My cats do not control our intern policy.

Comment From Josh G
Most bizarre food you’ve ever tried?

Dan Szymborski: Taco Bell

Comment From Curtis
100+ degrees or below freezing?

Dan Szymborski: Below freezing

Comment From Curious Onlooker
Yuna Only No Summon on FFX: Wond’rous or abhominable?

Dan Szymborski: Is that possible?

Comment From Abe
What should I have for supper?

Dan Szymborski: Something you have in the fridge

Comment From Curtis
which ONE baseball skill would you like to be excellent at?

Dan Szymborski: Fastball

Comment From Art Vandelay
What’s your guiltiest pleasure album or show?

Dan Szymborski: Buggles Age of Plastic

Comment From Dan
Without explaining, I’m assuming that you get some monetary return from FG for these chats (since you aren’t a FG writer)?

Dan Szymborski: Please rephrase your question int he form of a question.

Comment From Randy Savage
Don’t propose at a sports even unless she (or he i guess) is a huge sports fan. The proposal is not about the proposer, but the proposee

Dan Szymborski: Yes.

Comment From John
do you like the catan app? i havent downloaded it yet and so im stuck playing online with my laptop

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From John
i worry, though, if i download it i will literally never work

Dan Szymborski: I don’t work much and I manage

Comment From laxtonto
At what point do I get banned from your chat?

Dan Szymborski: Calling me David too much

Comment From laxtonto
Are you going to any of the SABR confrences this year

Dan Szymborski: Not sure yet

Comment From Mijo
Seinfeld or Curb?

Dan Szymborski: Seinfeld

Comment From hscer
Please tell me you rarely eat peanut butter ;p

Dan Szymborski: I rarely eat peanut butter. You just asked me to tell you that, not that it had to be true

Comment From hscer
Below freezing is the only bloody option. Seriously.

Dan Szymborski: I think we have the same amount of blood either way

Comment From Ampersand
hop-heavy or malt-forward?

Dan Szymborski: I like hoppy

Comment From Mijo
Burger or Pizza?

Dan Szymborski: Burger

Comment From Maltzy
Are you excited about the documentary Fastball, and a chance to see more about Steve Dalkawski?

Dan Szymborski: I am interested

Comment From Curious Onlooker
Yuna Only No Summon requires something batty like Holy on Besaid, IIRC.

Comment From Joe
You are no longer Dave. You are Carson.

Dan Szymborski: Carson Szymborski

Comment From laxtonto
Do you know any foreign languages.. and math doesnt count

Dan Szymborski: Rudimentary french, spanish, german. My German is mostly reading.

Comment From John
you excited about the netflix series wet hot american summer? the movie was incredible

Dan Szymborski: I am intrigued

Comment From hscer
American or British profanity?

Dan Szymborski: British because you can combine with horrible cockney accent

Comment From hscer
Is “Batman or Iron Man” a proxy for “DC or Marvel”?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Iron Man is proxy-status

Dan Szymborski: I prefer Marvel dudes overall

Comment From Ampersand
if “szymborski” became an eponym, what would it mean?

Dan Szymborski: Being a jerk in a charming way

Comment From laxtonto
Where is the worst place you have visited?

Dan Szymborski: principal’s office

Comment From Randy Savage
Any dietary restrictions?

Dan Szymborski: allergic to mushrooms and lobster

Comment From Maxamuz
Bull Durham or Field of Dreams?

Dan Szymborski: Bull Durham

Comment From Abe
If you could eat one food as much as you want without any negative consequences, what would you choose?

Dan Szymborski: Egg McMuffins

Comment From Curtis
Heavy Metal or Punk?

Dan Szymborski: Punk

Comment From laxtonto
Should I eat this last cookie on my desk?

Dan Szymborski: Sure

Comment From Josh G
Harry Potter or LOTR?

Dan Szymborski: LOTR, though I wish there was more material in the LOTR world

Comment From laxtonto
American or British comedy?

Dan Szymborski: American as long as we’re not talking about the Chuck Lorre type stuff

Comment From Abe
If you lost your sense of taste, would you eat the healthiest foods exclusively or would you eat bad foods just to try to remember what they’re like?

Dan Szymborski: Healthiest foods. No reason to eat pizza over kale if they taste the same

Dan Szymborski: (THough I actually like kale, if it’s raw)

Comment From Joe
Ash vs Evil Dead. Yes or OMG YES.

Dan Szymborski: Yes because I don’t say OMG

Comment From John
you going to Fare thee well in chicago or just streaming it online?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not really into the dead

Comment From Curtis
More interesting boss – Mr. Burns or J. Peterman?

Dan Szymborski: Peterman as there’s so much we still don’t know

Comment From Curtis
Fred Flintstone, Peter Griffin, or Homer Simpson?

Dan Szymborski: Griffin

Comment From hscer
What do you think you would like more, mushrooms or lobster? (There’s only one correct answer, and it’s not the fungus.)

Dan Szymborski: I liked lobster better than mushrooms

Comment From Josh G
Dream car? Actual car?

Dan Szymborski: The actual Aston Martin DB5 from Goldfinger. A Mazda 6

Dan Szymborski: My car’s 10 years old now, but still under 100K miles. It helps not having to commute.

Comment From hscer
Any particular reason for a Mazda over a Toyota or Honda?

Dan Szymborski: It’s fun to drive. And I haven’t had regrets

Comment From Beau
Better RPG character, Link or Cloud?

Dan Szymborski: Link. Cloud is too mopey.

Comment From Mijo
Game of thrones books- worth starting?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Comment From neal
even without the sense of taste, wouldn’t texture be a consideration in what you ate?

Dan Szymborski: Of course

Comment From laxtonto
How do you deal with your international fame?

Dan Szymborski: If I had some, I could answer that question

Comment From Ray Ray
Your outfield list doesn’t have Bonds?

Dan Szymborski: That was centerfield. Notice the lack of Ruth and Williams too.

Comment From Curtis
The best “non-Dan” Szymborski?

Dan Szymborski: A family member I assume

Comment From L. Scott
favorite pizza topping(s)?

Dan Szymborski: sausage

Comment From Maxamuz
Should there be a constitutional amendment to ban AstroTurf and the DH? I think there should be.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a libertarian, so no

Comment From laxtonto
OK.. how do you deal with your regional fame

Dan Szymborski: Nothing to deal with really. The only real effect is I occasionally have to answer a nice email from a stranger which isn’t a big deal

Comment From Joe
I want a Night’s King spinoff series. Are you with me?

Dan Szymborski: No. No spinoffs until Martin finishes the damn regular series. DO NOT ENCOURAGE HIM

Comment From laxtonto
At what point are you going to write a book?

Dan Szymborski: When I have an idea worthy of writing an entire book.

Dan Szymborski: I’m more of “let’s comment about crap” guy than a “let’s focus on write 300 pages on something” guy.

Comment From Curtis
Player you’d most like to interview tomorrow?

Dan Szymborski: The 2100 MVP. Hoping he can tell me some good stock picks and gambling opportunities from 2016 on. Or at least, look up when I died on wikipedia.

Comment From laxtonto
Where can I buy a flux capacitor.. asking for a friend

Dan Szymborski: Amazon?

Comment From John
so white walkers are zombies and wights are the ice people? im so confused

Dan Szymborski: I think the show is just figuring out what to call them. The hierarchy of that ilk has not been completely presented in book or TFV yet

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, time to go for another week!

Dan Szymborski: As always, thanks for joining me. You can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections and FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter. Also DSzymborski on Steam and ZimSmash on twitch