Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/4/14
12:01 |
And things are getting weird The bad guys are lurking And they’ve got the world a feared We need a superhero With a cool hat and beard It’s Abe Lincoln Man He doesn’t shoot bullets Abe Lincoln Man [x2] Well, the robbers and the crooks He’s Abe Lincoln, Abe Lincoln, Abe Lincoln Man. |
12:01 |
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12:01 |
Thanks as always for your time, Dan. NYY gets Hammel/Lee/Samardzija/Price/Shields/Some other 2-4 win SP, and Morales. Are they an 85+ win team? What gets them there? |
12:02 |
: They’re not far off – I’m assuming you’re saying *one* of those guys, of course. I’d probably put their true ability at 82-84 or thereabouts, so 85 not a stretch.
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12:03 |
I think Matheny hit for the cycle tonight. 1. Pointless sacrifice with Carpenter in the 4th inning with runner on 1st, no one out. |
12:04 |
: I think you prepared that! Or I commend your typing skills, much superior to my 120.
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12:04 |
Better production ROS: Porcello or Hughes? |
12:05 |
: The usual ceiling vs. certainty thing – I think Porcello’s safer, but Hughes has the most interesting upside
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12:05 |
Abreu = Cespedes with a little more power? |
12:06 |
: That’s a bit harsh – they’re not super far off this year in HR, but I’d call Abreu’s power more than a little more.
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12:06 |
better ROS: Jon Singleton or Juan Francisco? |
12:06 |
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12:08 |
What potential does Jesse Hahn have? |
12:08 |
: I like Hahn, though we still have a bit of an “incomplete” due to his missed Tommy John time.
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12:08 |
: I expect him to be more interesting in relief eventually
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12:09 |
Will the Pirates still be in the WC discussion by August? |
12:09 |
: They’ll be around, but I think the division, the real prize, is an uphill battle. They’ve been oscillating between 12 and 20% or so in the ZiPS odds and I think that one’s about right.
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12:10 |
In a position-less league with OBP, would you start Carlos Santana over Zobrist upon his return frm the DL on Friday. Neither has played up to expectations. Looking for a rebound from one of them. |
12:11 |
: Position-less league? That’s crazy talk! I’d probably take Santana – nobody is a true ability .170 guy
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12:11 |
Howdy Dan. Thoughts on where Chase Utley ends up? Yankees, Braves, A’s, or elsewhere? |
12:11 |
: I think in the end, he stays on the Phillies.
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12:11 |
: Phillies attempts to trade for the future are always perfunctory, I can’t imagine they’d go to the effort to really try and trade him, get him to agree and all that.
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12:13 |
: Phillies evaluate rebuilding the same way someone with a gym membership 4 miles away evaluates his membership – he may stop buy if his dry cleaner is near there or he likes the egg rolls the chinese place next door makes, but it’s not happening on an ordinary day.
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12:13 |
What do you make of Charlie Morton? When he’s on, he’s filthy. When he’s not, well, he hits a bunch of batters. What can we expect for the rest of the year? |
12:13 |
: I think he’ll always be a decent middle of the road pitcher, missing something to get him to the next tier. Nothing wrong with that though.
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12:13 |
any chance Joc Pederson gets called up before september/has any fantasy impact this year? |
12:15 |
: Less than 50/50 I imagine. Dodgers don’t have an obvious spot they’re going to put him in yet and while I think Kemp/Pederson/Puig is their best OF, it’s not a team that is aggressive at this stuff generally
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12:15 |
: Though admittedly, they trusted Puig pretty quickly
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12:15 |
So Nelson Cruz is playing (errr, batting) well so far. Surprised by this level of production? Think he will be able to sustain 90% at his current rate? |
12:17 |
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12:17 |
: The O’s seem to luck out with one of these one-tool sluggers every year. Next year, Michael Morse hits 45!
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12:17 |
Should the Indians be looking at moving Jason Kipnis back to the OF long-term? Their infield defense is probably the worst in the majors, and help is on the way with Lindor and a slew of other MIF prospects. It seems like his bat could still play well in LF to me. |
12:19 |
: I wouldn’t – one thing that makes him valuable is the passable defense at 2nd. He’s not that exciting in a corner outfield spot long-term unless he’s amazing defensively out there
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12:20 |
what numbers do you see for Taveras ROS? thanks. |
12:20 |
: .760-.790 OPS if he gets enough playing time.
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12:20 |
Where does your Zip-o-Tron 3000 say the Jays odds are of making playoffs – today? |
12:20 |
: Haven’t run them yet so I don’t know! If I had, you’d see them on Twitter.
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12:21 |
: Last check, Monday morning, they were up to 73% (54% division)
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12:21 |
Are the Blue Jays a 88~90 win team with no upgrades? |
12:21 |
: Around there, yes. ZiPS has them at 84-per-162 going forward, which gets them there.
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12:22 |
Are the Red Sox going to have the worst hitting outfield of all time? |
12:23 |
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12:23 |
Today marks a month on the Alex Wood bullpen experiment. Only 59 IP total, 15ish of those in relief. Can you foresee a near end on his exile? Stupidly assuming most of the decision was inning limit based of course |
12:24 |
: It’s hard to see a real pathway right now in the short term, simply because nobody in the rotation is really pitching poorly.
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12:25 |
: His best shot, I think, is for either an injury or Harang to pumpkinize (he’s already been up-and-down lately, so developing a bit of an orange hue)
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12:25 |
Would you drop Shelby Miller for McHugh, Hughes, or Bauer? Thanks. |
12:26 |
: Bauer if I’m a gambler, else I’m inclined to wait it out with Miller.
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12:26 |
Do you think MLB teams have an ethical responsibility to make public their medical research, in so much as it could improve injuries of non-baseball players? |
12:26 |
: Honeslty, haven’t much thought of the issue. I know a lot more about journalistic ethics than medical ones.
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12:27 |
Comment From Guest Better production ROS: Porcello or Hughes? hughes |
12:27 |
: Read the title, jabronie!
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12:27 |
Hi Dan! What do you think about the following revision to the Super 2 system for arbitration? If I were in charge, then players would still reach free agency at the same time, but salary arbitration would begin when the player hits 3 years of service time, regardless of which point in the season it occurs. Players reaching it at midseason (as most would) can either negotiate the terms before the year starts or up to a deadline (e.g. 3 weeks before 3 years of service is reached). Then we wouldn’t have Super 2 concerns driving management decisions for when prospects are promoted. What do you think? Thanks! |
12:28 |
: Personally, I’d try and get rid of super 2 and institute a greater salary floor for 2nd-year players.
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12:28 |
FYI, CK2 and all of its DLC is currently on sale at Steam @ 67% off. Pretty sure this is the lowest price Rajas of India has ever been. |
12:29 |
: Great game which I play the hell out of. Probably second currently in my quest to whittle away the hours of my life, behind Team Fortress 2
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12:29 |
Your chats are the best (re: my favorite) on Fangraphs. The tone, the receptivity to a variety or questions, a mix of humor and randomness that balances the baseball nerdery. More like a five-category contributor than utility guy or a LOOGY. |
12:29 |
: That totally sounds like there should be a “but” at the end and then the MEANEST INSULT EVER.
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12:29 |
Its June 4th and the Marlins have a better record than the Cardinals. After losing their ace. Baseball experts predictions can be a bit overrated, no? You gotta love baseball. |
12:30 |
: If I was always right, I’d be richer, but it would be much elss fun.
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12:30 |
Bob is a ML hitter. He has a unique skill set though.. Bob will foul off *every* pitch a pitcher throws, unless it’s a low and away strike. If it is a low and away strike, he either swings through it, or homers. The only other way Bob ever gets on base is by an IBB. So if Bob gets 600 AB’s and hits .185, he will have 111 HRs and 489 K’s on the year. Setting that up; 1) What does he have to hit to be league average hitter? 2) What does he have to hit to justify IBB’ing him every single time he’s up in a close game? |
12:30 |
: Dude, you’re making me do this in my head?
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12:31 |
: OK, so he’s a 185/185/740 hitter?
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12:32 |
: He’s probably a league-average hitter already, but that’s such an extreme!
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12:32 |
: 50% chance of a HR if you don’t strike him out, I’m IBBing him all the time
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12:33 |
What do you think AJ Pollock’s true talent level is? |
12:33 |
: I’d guesstimate somewhere in the .750 OPS range
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12:34 |
: His 200 or so PA this year should improve our outlook of him, but it’ snot enough to drastically change it
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12:34 |
Does Hosmer get going at some point this season? Is there a chance he pulls the kind of turnaround he did last season? |
12:34 |
: I’m trying to stop believing in him, which usually seems to help
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12:34 |
Thoughts on the Norris tweet? |
12:34 |
: I think Norris is full of it and I’m not someone that sides against the MLBPA *too* often.
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12:35 |
: The MLBPA has set up a system in which only 40-man roster members are member and have geared all the CBAs to maximize the percentage of revenue going to those guys.
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12:35 |
: Which is their right.
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12:35 |
: But.
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12:36 |
: If you don’t care at all about the future members — and nearly every future MLBPA member is a non-MLBPA minor leaguer at some point — it can hardly be surprising if they become more risk-averse and more willing to jump at guaranteed money that will set them for life.
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12:36 |
: On a fundamental level, why should Jonathan Singleton give a shit about maximizing Bud Norris’s salary when Bud Norris never gave a shit about Singleton?
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12:38 |
: Minor leaguers live an existence not that much different from migrant workers – they’re paid next to nothing, they barely have enough to eat, they have to triple and quadruple up the living arrangements
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12:38 |
: Dirk Hayhurst talked about this recently, google Hayhurst minor leaguers food or something
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12:39 |
: Maximizing the revenue *you* get has consequences. And the consequence of this is as teams become smarter, you’re going to see a lot more Singleton contracts
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12:39 |
: If being a minor leaguer wasn’t so frigging awful, maybe some of these guys could more effectively wait out teams better. But the MLBPA membership has made the conscious decision to say “fuck those guys”
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12:39 |
: A little coarse for FanGraphs, but I can’t think of a gentler word for it.
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12:39 |
any idea how many inning are required for k-bb% to be meaningful? |
12:40 |
: Very few, even for hitters. Under 100 PA or so and regression to the mean is already down to an expected 50/50
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12:40 |
Abreu has hit homeruns this season off 3 former Cy Young winners (and Kluber as well!). Any idea if any other rookies have ever had as impressive a power resume in year one? |
12:40 |
: McGwire
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12:41 |
: Of other monster rookie seasons, Pujols was more well rounded as was Al Rosen
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12:42 |
: I think Abreu’s better than Kittle though
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12:42 |
Xander is baseball’s (insert rank) best SS? |
12:43 |
: 5th-7th because Tulowitzki is 1st-through-4th.
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12:44 |
Will McHugh be on an innings limit this season? What about Hutchison? |
12:45 |
: I don’t believe either will be (McHugh’s not actually a young player)
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12:45 |
: McHugh has had fairly low innings totals, but just off the cuff, I think a lot of that is that he has taken a good amount of pitches to get through those innings (though my impression could possibly be wrong, I’m not magical)
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12:46 |
: Jays have taken the approach of not riding Hutchison too heavily – I don’t *think* he’s thrown 110 pitches in any game this year, but I’ll have to check later
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12:46 |
: Sweet Jesus there are a lot of questions today.
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12:47 |
Fangraphs just ran an article a couple of days ago calling Headley an ROS sleeper. Agree? |
12:47 |
: He’s a decent one, but it won’t be super exiciting as it’ll likely be an OPS in the mid 700s, thanks to the park
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12:48 |
: Eventually, yes, but it takes a lot to go right
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12:48 |
With Hardy unsigned, it looks like Machado is finally going to move to SS next year. Who do you see replacing him at 3B? Panda? Lowrie? Somebody else? |
12:48 |
: Probably someone else, I don’t thin kthe O’s even know yet
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12:48 |
: You could probably argue that Machado is the second best shortstop in baseball
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12:49 |
: I wouldn’t mind them going after Chase Headley
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12:49 |
Offered my Nelson Cruz for his Sonny Gray. Decent offer in a vacuum, or am I dreaming? |
12:49 |
: I don’t think it’s crazy if he needs the HRs. He’ll still hit those
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12:49 |
: Hah, the eventually yes was in answer to a question I did not post
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12:49 |
Do you think that any team will top 116 wins in a season? |
12:49 |
: That one.
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12:50 |
Were you as excited about the Jason Lane sighting as me? His comeback took 7 years! |
12:50 |
: I didn’t see the game, but I did get a bit excited when he was called up! Especially since he converted to pitcher too
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12:51 |
WHat are your thoughts on Carl Crawford when he comes back next week? |
12:51 |
: Meh
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12:51 |
What is the deal with Chris Davis? Was he playing way over his head last year? |
12:52 |
: He’ll hit better than he has this year in the long run, but of course he was over his head last year. His OPS+ was like 170!
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12:52 |
I’ve obviously lost my get Szymborski-a-answering mojo somewhere! Must refind it. |
12:52 |
: Flood of comments here today, I’m just trying not to drown here.
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12:53 |
With another blow up last night, has Joe Nathan lost his job? |
12:53 |
: Probably not, though he’s probably nearer to at least getting a week or two in a lesser role
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12:54 |
Brian McCann is: a) Struggling to adapt to a new league/New York OR b) Seriously declining as a hitter. |
12:54 |
: A little of both. He’s in decline, but an OPS+ 100-110 is still reasonable
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12:54 |
When do you see the Astros making the playoffs (if you do)? They’re putting together some good pieces. |
12:54 |
: I think by 2016, they’ll be interesting
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12:55 |
Please explain Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2011 to me. |
12:56 |
: He summoned the ghost of Bert Campaneris. Which is doubly weird because Campaneris is alive and ghosts don’t exist!
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12:56 |
Diehard Cards fan, I swear Matheny has cost us 4-5 games already |
12:56 |
Good answer, thanks. Link:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2062307-an-inside-look-into-the-harsh-conditions-of-minor-league-baseball |
12:57 |
: Yeah, actually finding the link is better than me just telling people how to use google
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12:57 |
eddie butler strikes out so few people. nbd? |
12:58 |
: It *is* cause for a concern . If you’re ready for the majors, you gotta be doing a better job freezing minor leagers
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12:59 |
: Yeah, Jamie Moyer didn’t strike out guys in the minors either. But there aren’t a lot of Jamie Moyers, else we’d use a wide variety of pitchers in this comparison, rather than mostly Jamie Moyer
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12:59 |
: Though luckily, Butler’s been better at it than he has this year, so I wouldn’t panic quite yet
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1:00 |
that was awesome, thanks for your insight! (re. Norris/Singleton/MLBPA in general) |
1:00 |
: I admit I was a bit annoyed that I went on a rant on Twitter yesterday before realizing that Calcaterra had almost said the same thing already
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1:00 |
Thinking about minor-leaguers living conditions reminded of a point I think about often. My brother, a top-of-his-game olympic rower, with 80 endurance, has never had a time in the past several years, has never not been the |
1:00 |
Best shape of his life, that was supposed to be. |
1:01 |
If Tulowitzki played half of his games at Safeco, he would be baseball’s (insert rank) best SS? |
1:01 |
: 1st
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1:01 |
should i consider benching Clayton Kershaw this weekend in Colorado? |
1:01 |
: Don’t bench your studs
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1:01 |
Are there more people than usual in the queue calling you Dave since this is his regular chat day? |
1:01 |
: Actually no!
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1:01 |
Who would win a footrace between all of the Molina brothers (in their physical primes, hypothetically) |
1:01 |
: Glacier Molina
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1:01 |
I know you’re an avid PC gamer. Do you play board games? If so, why not? You’re missing out! |
1:02 |
: I used to play a lot of the uber-nerd board games, but I don’t have a set of nearby friends that are really into those
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1:02 |
Would you rather be an architect, marine biologist, or latex salesman? |
1:02 |
: Architect. I wouldn’t be able to sell anything and marine biologist sounds like a lot of leaving the house
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1:02 |
: I guess architects have to sometimes wear pants too, but I imagine a lot of time doing stuff on pcs
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1:03 |
Projections have Oscar Taveras hitting about .280…some saying power is legit other saying he has none. How many dingers you think he jacks if he stays up all season? |
1:03 |
: If he manages 300 PA, which I doubt, probably 10-12 or so
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1:04 |
Is the excess of Johnny Tom surgery just a coincidence or will we keep seeing this with all young pitchers?? |
1:05 |
: I think there’s been a general upward trend, but this year is probably an outlier a bit, though the base expectation appears to be increasing
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1:05 |
You going to be watching the draft live tomorrow? |
1:05 |
: Well online, I’ll be at home
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1:05 |
The Braves just intentionally walked Willie Bloomquist with two outs!!! It doesn’t even matter who’s on deck, that’s hilarious! |
1:05 |
Gun to your head, 5 seconds to answer: WHAT IS YOUR FAVORITE THING IN THE WHOLE WORLD?! |
1:05 |
: A society where gunmen don’t threaten you for such a random reason.
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1:06 |
could trout’s back explain the increase in strikeouts? or could the increase in strikeouts explain the back? |
1:06 |
: While it *could* he did make a conscious, expressed desire to be more aggressive this year
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1:06 |
Its the winter after the 2012 season and you are the mets GM. You have David Wright, off a great year on a reasonable 1 year deal. Your team is awful, the minors are still devoid of any hitting prospects. Don’t you trade him? Fans revolt, whatever. They have already stopped coming. You need to go full rebuild. Now they will be saddled with another long-term bad contract, and they are wasting his only good years. |
1:06 |
: *I* would have traded him, but the Mets decided to go the “safe” route, even though that safe route is damn expensive
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1:07 |
: I don’t think the Mets are in a situation, like the Marlins, where the fans are traumatized already by fire sales
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1:07 |
: Mets fans are prone to self-immolation, but that’s mostly due to the team always seeming to regress towards suck. A good Mets team will have support
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1:07 |
Disregard the 2 year age gap. Tanaka or Darvish who would you rather have? |
1:07 |
: Darvish
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1:07 |
: More confident on his ability.
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1:08 |
How much sense does it make for the Royals to sell Shields, and the Jays to jump at the opportunity? |
1:08 |
: Sense for both, though Dayton won’t do it – if the Royals are rebuilding, he has no apparent purpose
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1:08 |
: Now, I’d argue that Dayton Moore doesn’t have any apparent purpose anyway, but the Royals haven’t figured that out
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1:09 |
You’re nuts for thinking Tulo would still be the best if he played at safeco |
1:09 |
: Beethoven would be a great composer even if he was forced to write the hammerklavier at a Nickelback concert.
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1:09 |
Butler was told not to use his full arsenal this year in Tulsa. Could explain the lower strikeout numbers |
1:09 |
: That’s one reason I wouldn’t panic at all.
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1:10 |
: They have been tinkering, but I had been under the impression that they were mostly trying to get him to stop trying to put away batters with the fastball, rather than limiting his stuff.
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1:11 |
Remember those Troy Tulowitzki trade rumors last season? What if the Rockies, for some insane reason, decided to sell high on Tulo and ship him off while he’s been hitting like he has? What do they get in return? Ownership of the Royals? |
1:12 |
: They get quite a lot. He’s worth the contract, but still wouldn’t fetch an entire organization. Maybe.
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1:13 |
: On that note, time for me to shuffle off this digital coil for another week. Thanks for coming and hope to see you guys at my Normal Day of Monday. Remember you can find my writing at ESPN, chats and projections at FG, DSzymborski on Twitter, and churrascarias near my house if another one opened – the one nearby closed last year and I’m way short of places in which people wander by with meat on sticks.
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Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
Great Seinfeld themed question by Mike Francesa