Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 6/4/14

Dan Szymborski: When trouble is a brewing
And things are getting weird
The bad guys are lurking
And they’ve got the world a feared
We need a superhero
With a cool hat and beard
It’s Abe Lincoln Man

He doesn’t shoot bullets
Or fly through the air
Drive a fancy car
Or have a secret lair
But he’s really kinda tall
And he’s extra super fair
He’s Abe Lincoln Man

Abe Lincoln Man [x2]
The presidential hero
Abe Lincoln Man
When he takes a stand
Evildoers cry in fear
Oh no, no, no

Well, the robbers and the crooks
They think they’re out of reach
But they’re gonna learn a lesson
Honest Abe is gonna teach
He kicks a little butt
Then he makes a little speech

He’s Abe Lincoln, Abe Lincoln, Abe Lincoln Man.

Dan Szymborski: Happy Wednesday, in whatever language you speak. Please be English.

Comment From Jake
Thanks as always for your time, Dan. NYY gets Hammel/Lee/Samardzija/Price/Shields/Some other 2-4 win SP, and Morales. Are they an 85+ win team? What gets them there?

Dan Szymborski: They’re not far off – I’m assuming you’re saying *one* of those guys, of course. I’d probably put their true ability at 82-84 or thereabouts, so 85 not a stretch.

Comment From jocephus
I think Matheny hit for the cycle tonight.

1. Pointless sacrifice with Carpenter in the 4th inning with runner on 1st, no one out.
2. Left Garcia in too long.
3. Tried sacrificing with Wong after Shields allowed a homer and a walk, was on fumes, and Wong already homered off him.
4. Called a hit and run with Wong, that resulted in Wong swinging at ball 3, and bailed Shields out (Cards went 1-12 against Royals pen).
5. Double switched Wong out of the game.
6. Intentionally walked a batter in a 1 run game.

Dan Szymborski: I think you prepared that! Or I commend your typing skills, much superior to my 120.

Comment From Guest
Better production ROS: Porcello or Hughes?

Dan Szymborski: The usual ceiling vs. certainty thing – I think Porcello’s safer, but Hughes has the most interesting upside

Comment From Guest
Abreu = Cespedes with a little more power?

Dan Szymborski: That’s a bit harsh – they’re not super far off this year in HR, but I’d call Abreu’s power more than a little more.

Comment From Dave
better ROS: Jon Singleton or Juan Francisco?

Dan Szymborski: I’d go ith Singleton.

Comment From Xolo
What potential does Jesse Hahn have?

Dan Szymborski: I like Hahn, though we still have a bit of an “incomplete” due to his missed Tommy John time.

Dan Szymborski: I expect him to be more interesting in relief eventually

Comment From Bucco
Will the Pirates still be in the WC discussion by August?

Dan Szymborski: They’ll be around, but I think the division, the real prize, is an uphill battle. They’ve been oscillating between 12 and 20% or so in the ZiPS odds and I think that one’s about right.

Comment From Krusty
In a position-less league with OBP, would you start Carlos Santana over Zobrist upon his return frm the DL on Friday. Neither has played up to expectations. Looking for a rebound from one of them.

Dan Szymborski: Position-less league? That’s crazy talk! I’d probably take Santana – nobody is a true ability .170 guy

Comment From Lars
Howdy Dan. Thoughts on where Chase Utley ends up? Yankees, Braves, A’s, or elsewhere?

Dan Szymborski: I think in the end, he stays on the Phillies.

Dan Szymborski: Phillies attempts to trade for the future are always perfunctory, I can’t imagine they’d go to the effort to really try and trade him, get him to agree and all that.

Dan Szymborski: Phillies evaluate rebuilding the same way someone with a gym membership 4 miles away evaluates his membership – he may stop buy if his dry cleaner is near there or he likes the egg rolls the chinese place next door makes, but it’s not happening on an ordinary day.

Comment From PieTraynee
What do you make of Charlie Morton? When he’s on, he’s filthy. When he’s not, well, he hits a bunch of batters. What can we expect for the rest of the year?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll always be a decent middle of the road pitcher, missing something to get him to the next tier. Nothing wrong with that though.

Comment From Guest
any chance Joc Pederson gets called up before september/has any fantasy impact this year?

Dan Szymborski: Less than 50/50 I imagine. Dodgers don’t have an obvious spot they’re going to put him in yet and while I think Kemp/Pederson/Puig is their best OF, it’s not a team that is aggressive at this stuff generally

Dan Szymborski: Though admittedly, they trusted Puig pretty quickly

Comment From Stephen
So Nelson Cruz is playing (errr, batting) well so far. Surprised by this level of production? Think he will be able to sustain 90% at his current rate?

Dan Szymborski: 90%? No. Though I expect him to actually sign next offseason.

Dan Szymborski: The O’s seem to luck out with one of these one-tool sluggers every year. Next year, Michael Morse hits 45!

Comment From Professor Ross Eforp
Should the Indians be looking at moving Jason Kipnis back to the OF long-term? Their infield defense is probably the worst in the majors, and help is on the way with Lindor and a slew of other MIF prospects. It seems like his bat could still play well in LF to me.

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t – one thing that makes him valuable is the passable defense at 2nd. He’s not that exciting in a corner outfield spot long-term unless he’s amazing defensively out there

Comment From NarNar
what numbers do you see for Taveras ROS? thanks.

Dan Szymborski: .760-.790 OPS if he gets enough playing time.

Comment From Darren
Where does your Zip-o-Tron 3000 say the Jays odds are of making playoffs – today?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t run them yet so I don’t know! If I had, you’d see them on Twitter.

Dan Szymborski: Last check, Monday morning, they were up to 73% (54% division)

Comment From Bluejays and Cardinals
Are the Blue Jays a 88~90 win team with no upgrades?

Dan Szymborski: Around there, yes. ZiPS has them at 84-per-162 going forward, which gets them there.

Comment From hnnnnnng
Are the Red Sox going to have the worst hitting outfield of all time?

Dan Szymborski: No, there are a lot of bad ones out there. Now, their stats as of June 4 are pretty piss-poor, but they’ll end up better than that, though probably not all the way to good

Comment From Danny Glover
Today marks a month on the Alex Wood bullpen experiment. Only 59 IP total, 15ish of those in relief. Can you foresee a near end on his exile? Stupidly assuming most of the decision was inning limit based of course

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to see a real pathway right now in the short term, simply because nobody in the rotation is really pitching poorly.

Dan Szymborski: His best shot, I think, is for either an injury or Harang to pumpkinize (he’s already been up-and-down lately, so developing a bit of an orange hue)

Comment From Christian
Would you drop Shelby Miller for McHugh, Hughes, or Bauer? Thanks.

Dan Szymborski: Bauer if I’m a gambler, else I’m inclined to wait it out with Miller.

Comment From Guest
Do you think MLB teams have an ethical responsibility to make public their medical research, in so much as it could improve injuries of non-baseball players?

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty, haven’t much thought of the issue. I know a lot more about journalistic ethics than medical ones.

Comment From Guest
Comment From Guest
Better production ROS: Porcello or Hughes? hughes

Dan Szymborski: Read the title, jabronie!

Comment From Player Development Nerd
Hi Dan! What do you think about the following revision to the Super 2 system for arbitration? If I were in charge, then players would still reach free agency at the same time, but salary arbitration would begin when the player hits 3 years of service time, regardless of which point in the season it occurs. Players reaching it at midseason (as most would) can either negotiate the terms before the year starts or up to a deadline (e.g. 3 weeks before 3 years of service is reached). Then we wouldn’t have Super 2 concerns driving management decisions for when prospects are promoted. What do you think? Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: Personally, I’d try and get rid of super 2 and institute a greater salary floor for 2nd-year players.

Comment From King Harald
FYI, CK2 and all of its DLC is currently on sale at Steam @ 67% off. Pretty sure this is the lowest price Rajas of India has ever been.

Dan Szymborski: Great game which I play the hell out of. Probably second currently in my quest to whittle away the hours of my life, behind Team Fortress 2

Comment From Rated Rookie
Your chats are the best (re: my favorite) on Fangraphs. The tone, the receptivity to a variety or questions, a mix of humor and randomness that balances the baseball nerdery. More like a five-category contributor than utility guy or a LOOGY.

Dan Szymborski: That totally sounds like there should be a “but” at the end and then the MEANEST INSULT EVER.

Comment From the green hornet
Its June 4th and the Marlins have a better record than the Cardinals. After losing their ace. Baseball experts predictions can be a bit overrated, no? You gotta love baseball.

Dan Szymborski: If I was always right, I’d be richer, but it would be much elss fun.

Comment From Jacob
Bob is a ML hitter. He has a unique skill set though.. Bob will foul off *every* pitch a pitcher throws, unless it’s a low and away strike. If it is a low and away strike, he either swings through it, or homers. The only other way Bob ever gets on base is by an IBB. So if Bob gets 600 AB’s and hits .185, he will have 111 HRs and 489 K’s on the year. Setting that up; 1) What does he have to hit to be league average hitter? 2) What does he have to hit to justify IBB’ing him every single time he’s up in a close game?

Dan Szymborski: Dude, you’re making me do this in my head?

Dan Szymborski: OK, so he’s a 185/185/740 hitter?

Dan Szymborski: He’s probably a league-average hitter already, but that’s such an extreme!

Dan Szymborski: 50% chance of a HR if you don’t strike him out, I’m IBBing him all the time

Comment From Matt
What do you think AJ Pollock’s true talent level is?

Dan Szymborski: I’d guesstimate somewhere in the .750 OPS range

Dan Szymborski: His 200 or so PA this year should improve our outlook of him, but it’ snot enough to drastically change it

Comment From Jon Bon
Does Hosmer get going at some point this season? Is there a chance he pulls the kind of turnaround he did last season?

Dan Szymborski: I’m trying to stop believing in him, which usually seems to help

Comment From Alex
Thoughts on the Norris tweet?

Dan Szymborski: I think Norris is full of it and I’m not someone that sides against the MLBPA *too* often.

Dan Szymborski: The MLBPA has set up a system in which only 40-man roster members are member and have geared all the CBAs to maximize the percentage of revenue going to those guys.

Dan Szymborski: Which is their right.

Dan Szymborski: But.

Dan Szymborski: If you don’t care at all about the future members — and nearly every future MLBPA member is a non-MLBPA minor leaguer at some point — it can hardly be surprising if they become more risk-averse and more willing to jump at guaranteed money that will set them for life.

Dan Szymborski: On a fundamental level, why should Jonathan Singleton give a shit about maximizing Bud Norris’s salary when Bud Norris never gave a shit about Singleton?

Dan Szymborski: Minor leaguers live an existence not that much different from migrant workers – they’re paid next to nothing, they barely have enough to eat, they have to triple and quadruple up the living arrangements

Dan Szymborski: Dirk Hayhurst talked about this recently, google Hayhurst minor leaguers food or something

Dan Szymborski: Maximizing the revenue *you* get has consequences. And the consequence of this is as teams become smarter, you’re going to see a lot more Singleton contracts

Dan Szymborski: If being a minor leaguer wasn’t so frigging awful, maybe some of these guys could more effectively wait out teams better. But the MLBPA membership has made the conscious decision to say “fuck those guys”

Dan Szymborski: A little coarse for FanGraphs, but I can’t think of a gentler word for it.

Comment From Dave
any idea how many inning are required for k-bb% to be meaningful?

Dan Szymborski: Very few, even for hitters. Under 100 PA or so and regression to the mean is already down to an expected 50/50

Comment From Harry
Abreu has hit homeruns this season off 3 former Cy Young winners (and Kluber as well!). Any idea if any other rookies have ever had as impressive a power resume in year one?

Dan Szymborski: McGwire

Dan Szymborski: Of other monster rookie seasons, Pujols was more well rounded as was Al Rosen

Dan Szymborski: I think Abreu’s better than Kittle though

Comment From A sad Red Sox fan
Xander is baseball’s (insert rank) best SS?

Dan Szymborski: 5th-7th because Tulowitzki is 1st-through-4th.

Comment From Reginald Denton III
Will McHugh be on an innings limit this season? What about Hutchison?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe either will be (McHugh’s not actually a young player)

Dan Szymborski: McHugh has had fairly low innings totals, but just off the cuff, I think a lot of that is that he has taken a good amount of pitches to get through those innings (though my impression could possibly be wrong, I’m not magical)

Dan Szymborski: Jays have taken the approach of not riding Hutchison too heavily – I don’t *think* he’s thrown 110 pitches in any game this year, but I’ll have to check later

Dan Szymborski: Sweet Jesus there are a lot of questions today.

Comment From Xolo
Fangraphs just ran an article a couple of days ago calling Headley an ROS sleeper. Agree?

Dan Szymborski: He’s a decent one, but it won’t be super exiciting as it’ll likely be an OPS in the mid 700s, thanks to the park

Dan Szymborski: Eventually, yes, but it takes a lot to go right

Comment From baltic fox
With Hardy unsigned, it looks like Machado is finally going to move to SS next year. Who do you see replacing him at 3B? Panda? Lowrie? Somebody else?

Dan Szymborski: Probably someone else, I don’t thin kthe O’s even know yet

Dan Szymborski: You could probably argue that Machado is the second best shortstop in baseball

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t mind them going after Chase Headley

Comment From kevinthecomic
Offered my Nelson Cruz for his Sonny Gray. Decent offer in a vacuum, or am I dreaming?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s crazy if he needs the HRs. He’ll still hit those

Dan Szymborski: Hah, the eventually yes was in answer to a question I did not post

Comment From dbet
Do you think that any team will top 116 wins in a season?

Dan Szymborski: That one.

Comment From Wily Mo Money Mo Problems
Were you as excited about the Jason Lane sighting as me? His comeback took 7 years!

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t see the game, but I did get a bit excited when he was called up! Especially since he converted to pitcher too

Comment From Jake
WHat are your thoughts on Carl Crawford when he comes back next week?

Dan Szymborski: Meh

Comment From J
What is the deal with Chris Davis? Was he playing way over his head last year?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll hit better than he has this year in the long run, but of course he was over his head last year. His OPS+ was like 170!

Comment From Dr. Met
I’ve obviously lost my get Szymborski-a-answering mojo somewhere! Must refind it.

Dan Szymborski: Flood of comments here today, I’m just trying not to drown here.

Comment From Rexdale
With another blow up last night, has Joe Nathan lost his job?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not, though he’s probably nearer to at least getting a week or two in a lesser role

Comment From Jamaal
Brian McCann is: a) Struggling to adapt to a new league/New York OR b) Seriously declining as a hitter.

Dan Szymborski: A little of both. He’s in decline, but an OPS+ 100-110 is still reasonable

Comment From Graham
When do you see the Astros making the playoffs (if you do)? They’re putting together some good pieces.

Dan Szymborski: I think by 2016, they’ll be interesting

Comment From Guy
Please explain Jacoby Ellsbury’s 2011 to me.

Dan Szymborski: He summoned the ghost of Bert Campaneris. Which is doubly weird because Campaneris is alive and ghosts don’t exist!

Comment From Ugh
Diehard Cards fan, I swear Matheny has cost us 4-5 games already

Comment From Alex
Good answer, thanks. Link:http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2062307-an-inside-look-into-the-harsh-conditions-of-minor-league-baseball

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, actually finding the link is better than me just telling people how to use google

Comment From PS
eddie butler strikes out so few people. nbd?

Dan Szymborski: It *is* cause for a concern . If you’re ready for the majors, you gotta be doing a better job freezing minor leagers

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, Jamie Moyer didn’t strike out guys in the minors either. But there aren’t a lot of Jamie Moyers, else we’d use a wide variety of pitchers in this comparison, rather than mostly Jamie Moyer

Dan Szymborski: Though luckily, Butler’s been better at it than he has this year, so I wouldn’t panic quite yet

Comment From Kris
that was awesome, thanks for your insight! (re. Norris/Singleton/MLBPA in general)

Dan Szymborski: I admit I was a bit annoyed that I went on a rant on Twitter yesterday before realizing that Calcaterra had almost said the same thing already

Comment From a eskpert
Thinking about minor-leaguers living conditions reminded of a point I think about often. My brother, a top-of-his-game olympic rower, with 80 endurance, has never had a time in the past several years, has never not been the

Comment From a eskpert
Best shape of his life, that was supposed to be.

Comment From Mike Francesa
If Tulowitzki played half of his games at Safeco, he would be baseball’s (insert rank) best SS?

Dan Szymborski: 1st

Comment From outside reader
should i consider benching Clayton Kershaw this weekend in Colorado?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t bench your studs

Comment From Vin
Are there more people than usual in the queue calling you Dave since this is his regular chat day?

Dan Szymborski: Actually no!

Comment From Mike Francesa
Who would win a footrace between all of the Molina brothers (in their physical primes, hypothetically)

Dan Szymborski: Glacier Molina

Comment From King Harald
I know you’re an avid PC gamer. Do you play board games? If so, why not? You’re missing out!

Dan Szymborski: I used to play a lot of the uber-nerd board games, but I don’t have a set of nearby friends that are really into those

Comment From Mike Francesa
Would you rather be an architect, marine biologist, or latex salesman?

Dan Szymborski: Architect. I wouldn’t be able to sell anything and marine biologist sounds like a lot of leaving the house

Dan Szymborski: I guess architects have to sometimes wear pants too, but I imagine a lot of time doing stuff on pcs

Comment From John
Projections have Oscar Taveras hitting about .280…some saying power is legit other saying he has none. How many dingers you think he jacks if he stays up all season?

Dan Szymborski: If he manages 300 PA, which I doubt, probably 10-12 or so

Comment From Mike Francesa
Is the excess of Johnny Tom surgery just a coincidence or will we keep seeing this with all young pitchers??

Dan Szymborski: I think there’s been a general upward trend, but this year is probably an outlier a bit, though the base expectation appears to be increasing

Comment From Eminor3rd
You going to be watching the draft live tomorrow?

Dan Szymborski: Well online, I’ll be at home

Comment From Marcus A.
The Braves just intentionally walked Willie Bloomquist with two outs!!! It doesn’t even matter who’s on deck, that’s hilarious!

Comment From Eminor3rd
Gun to your head, 5 seconds to answer: WHAT IS YOUR FAVORITE THING IN THE WHOLE WORLD?!

Dan Szymborski: A society where gunmen don’t threaten you for such a random reason.

Comment From ar
could trout’s back explain the increase in strikeouts? or could the increase in strikeouts explain the back?

Dan Szymborski: While it *could* he did make a conscious, expressed desire to be more aggressive this year

Comment From john
Its the winter after the 2012 season and you are the mets GM. You have David Wright, off a great year on a reasonable 1 year deal. Your team is awful, the minors are still devoid of any hitting prospects. Don’t you trade him? Fans revolt, whatever. They have already stopped coming. You need to go full rebuild. Now they will be saddled with another long-term bad contract, and they are wasting his only good years.

Dan Szymborski: *I* would have traded him, but the Mets decided to go the “safe” route, even though that safe route is damn expensive

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Mets are in a situation, like the Marlins, where the fans are traumatized already by fire sales

Dan Szymborski: Mets fans are prone to self-immolation, but that’s mostly due to the team always seeming to regress towards suck. A good Mets team will have support

Comment From Mike Francesa
Disregard the 2 year age gap. Tanaka or Darvish who would you rather have?

Dan Szymborski: Darvish

Dan Szymborski: More confident on his ability.

Comment From Abe Lincoln Man
How much sense does it make for the Royals to sell Shields, and the Jays to jump at the opportunity?

Dan Szymborski: Sense for both, though Dayton won’t do it – if the Royals are rebuilding, he has no apparent purpose

Dan Szymborski: Now, I’d argue that Dayton Moore doesn’t have any apparent purpose anyway, but the Royals haven’t figured that out

Comment From Mike Francesa
You’re nuts for thinking Tulo would still be the best if he played at safeco

Dan Szymborski: Beethoven would be a great composer even if he was forced to write the hammerklavier at a Nickelback concert.

Comment From Guest
Butler was told not to use his full arsenal this year in Tulsa. Could explain the lower strikeout numbers

Dan Szymborski: That’s one reason I wouldn’t panic at all.

Dan Szymborski: They have been tinkering, but I had been under the impression that they were mostly trying to get him to stop trying to put away batters with the fastball, rather than limiting his stuff.

Comment From Tom
Remember those Troy Tulowitzki trade rumors last season? What if the Rockies, for some insane reason, decided to sell high on Tulo and ship him off while he’s been hitting like he has? What do they get in return? Ownership of the Royals?

Dan Szymborski: They get quite a lot. He’s worth the contract, but still wouldn’t fetch an entire organization. Maybe.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, time for me to shuffle off this digital coil for another week. Thanks for coming and hope to see you guys at my Normal Day of Monday. Remember you can find my writing at ESPN, chats and projections at FG, DSzymborski on Twitter, and churrascarias near my house if another one opened – the one nearby closed last year and I’m way short of places in which people wander by with meat on sticks.