Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/15/2019

Dan Szymborski: Release the Chaten!

Roberto Beers: The lull in HS content has left me drifting to other F2P games, namely TFT. Have you played? Thoughts on the AutoChess genre?

Dan Szymborski: Intrigued by it, but haven’t dipped my toes in yet. HS has been fun!

Joe: Do you have updated ZIPS numbers for Tatis? I know his babip can’t stay this good so what are realistic expectations for him?

Dan Szymborski: You should see a WAR update in the trade value series. I may do something more substantial before the offseason.

Matt: Please confirm that your name is not in fact, “Szymbobski”

Dan Szymborski: Sometimes I’m not even sure!

Dan Szymborski: The reference is to Murray Chass’s blog about me about four years ago. I am the name of shame.

Dan Szymborski: http://www.murraychass.com/?p=9701

Laxtonto : Any ideas on why more teams don’t build apartment/training facilities for their minor league teams at all levels. Even at a 2-3M cost per level, wouldn’t it be beneficial just for the longterm daily control it has on the players day to day actions.

Dan Szymborski: Change comes slow. MLB teams like paying minor leaguers nothing and making it retroactive.

GSon: Trevor Bauer is playing for ________________________ by the trade deadline.. The Indians will receive _________________________ , _________________________, and ___________________ in return for the enigmatic, opinionated and durable Bauer.

Dan Szymborski: Indians. I don’t think he’s traded. Maybe in the winter when they have a better idea on the status of the rest of their pitchers.

HappyFunBall: Given the turnover among Fangraphs staff in the past few offseasons, are we going to get a FG Author trade value series?

Dan Szymborski: While that would be an amusing exercise, feelings will be hurt!

Dan Szymborski: You wouldn’t want baseball players themselves doing a trade value series.

GSon: Is it time for the Indians to return Bobby Bradley and his sub .200 BA with 46 % strike out rate back to the minors?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not there yet, it’s not like he has a huge sample size.

Dan Szymborski: The Indians ought to explore him longer – they can always use the offense.

Gub Gub: How many hot dogs are you going to eat today?

Dan Szymborski: None, as far as I know

Dan Szymborski: Have some chicken in the fridge to eat

Dan Szymborski: and I’m making Königsberger Klopse tomorrow.

Dbo: If I have two slices of bread then reattach them with an adhesive then does that make it one single slice of bread?

Dan Szymborski: Only if the adhesive is bread-based.

LFC Mike: Internet rumors are rampant that during the All Star festivities, one hotel in Cleveland reported that their housekeeping staff thought a room had been inhabited by The Who’s Keith Moon for a week…but turned out to a baseball writer celebrity instead.  Thoughts Dan?

Dan Szymborski: Dunno, I left my rental apartment nice and neat!

Dan Szymborski: While I was in there more than I had expected, that was mostly because of a nasty hangover Sunday.

Hot_Dog_Down_a_Hallway: What do the Rays see in Choi to give him everyday at-bats? His bat seems light for a 1B/DH on a contending team.

Dan Szymborski: Honeslty not crazy about him. The Rays have a weirdly long history with C- first basemen.

Babyfarts Mckeezack: What do you think of Julio Urias/AJ Puk/Dustin May in a dynasty league? These 3 are the most obtainable in my league for young SP’s but I am not sure any could be considered an “ace” ceiling.

Dan Szymborski: While they all have upside, May’s probably the safest

Russell: Do you think the Astro’s will use Kyle Tucker as a trading piece for a pitcher before this tread deadline?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think so

Andrew Cashner: I’m Free! I’m Free! hahahahahah. Screw the crab cakes… I am all about the Chowda now!

Broken Bat: Danny Boy, the pipes are calling! Can you see either Dyson or Hamilton of particular value to the Cubs as a CF and possible leadoff hitter for cheap? Dyson 34 and still average, but Hamilton in a buy low shelf since you can’t steal first base. One more… Do see McMahon of Rocs ever developing decent power?

Dan Szymborski: Dyson’s far more interesting, though I think of him more as a role player on the Cubs.

Dan Szymborski: Hamilton not so much.

Dan Szymborski: Especially now that you have to acquire Hamilton earlier, which means he uses a 25-man spot longer.

Dbo: Is Beef Vindaloo just Indian chili?

Dan Szymborski: Beef? Your Indian place is weird if you’re getting beef.

Cat Latos: MEOW MEOW I AM AN CAT!

stever20: Do you think something is physically wrong with Chris Sale?  Last 8 starts he’s got a 4.38 ERA, and that’s WITH a shutout vs KC.  Given up 4+ runs in 4 of those 8 starts, including 5 each in his last 3 starts.  Is this all just mental, or is there something phisical with is?

Dan Szymborski: Hard to tell – I thought something was physicall wrong until he went on that run in May/June.

Dan Szymborski: I’m mildly concerned though.

Pita: The preamble to the trade value series has me thinking that the Padres really need to do something at the deadline to give themselves a shot since they’ve done the right thing and given up all that surplus value with Tatis and Paddack.

Dan Szymborski: They’re slowly drifting out of contention though. Any move they make has to be someone that will be around after 2019, so no pure rentals.

Dan Szymborski: So Mets want to trade Thor? Sure. Nationals go on a 12-game losing streak and make Scherzer available? Sure.

Aaron: Rank YOUR top 5 prospects at this time. Please 🙂

Dan Szymborski: I’m working on midseason top 100!

Dan Szymborski: (Then we’ll do two per year starting next year)

RJ: Will there be donuts?

Dan Szymborski: I only get donuts once a year. I’m fat enough from beer and not enough exercise. If I start eating terribly too, I’m going to need a rascal!

LFC Mike: If Galileo or any other cat of yours becomes a spokes cat for Chewy.com we will know who the real sellout is Dan. Moving on. Who impressed you the most from the Futures Games activities? I assume you didn’t go all fanboy over McKenzie Gore.

Dan Szymborski: Deivi Garcia looked absolutely nasty.

Matt: Dan. Lunch. Pause, please.

Dan Szymborski: You know when my chat is, you gotta start eating lunch at 11:30 or 1:00!

Chris: Where is Jerry dipoto?

Dan Szymborski: Set your radar to trades

John: Who says no first to Almora and Happ for Merrifield?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Royals because Royals.

Dan Szymborski: And really I’m not sure if that’s ideal for ROyals.

Dan Szymborski: I think they’d overrate Almora, but not enough to overcome their weird belief that they’re on the edge of contending again.

Szymbo Slice: Dan, so nice of you to join us a week late.

Dan Szymborski: I was in Cleveland last week!

Chris: Is Kyle seager done?

Dan Szymborski: I’m very rapidly getting there.

Chris: Domingo Santana gets traded yes or no?

Dan Szymborski: I think yes and not just because Dipoto is his boss.

Kenny: How many friends do you have that you would pop something on their back for?   Do you need one more?

Dan Szymborski: Eww

RotoLando: Andrew Cashner?  Andrew… Cashner?

Chris: Who should Houston target? A stud like Boyd that costs a ton, or an inning eater like leake who costs way less?

Dan Szymborski: Given the long-term uncertainty in the rotation, I’d want to target someone like Boyd who I would want long-term.

Gub Gub: Which minor league organization will be the first to send their players across country in Conestoga wagons?

Dan Szymborski: MARLINS ATTEMPT TO FORD RIVER, SIXTO SANCHEZ DROWNS

Dan Szymborski: VICTOR VICTOR HAS DIED OF DYSENTERY

Perplexed Giants Fan: I feel like I wouldn’t be shocked if the Giants traded Bumgarner for a Darvish like package of a top 100 prospect and two other pieces, then again I feel like I wouldn’t be shocked if we got about what we got for McCutchen last year (a pair of top 20 org prospects). Where do you fall on that?

Dan Szymborski: I’d be shocked at the former.

J: Any sense on teams’ recent/current ability to scout in Venezuela given political upheaval? There have been whispers that only certain terms were really able to watch things firsthand or is that true?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t heard anything specific other than general unease. I’d recommend saving this question for Kiley, who is way better connected in scouting world than I am.

My Team Stinks: % chance Boyd is pitching elsewhere on August 1?  Who do you see as the top suitors?

Dan Szymborski: 50. The Tigers are a little unpredictable.

Harry: How optimistic should we be about Daniel Ponce de Leon?

Dan Szymborski: Moderately

Abandoned Chatter: Finish this sentence everyone:A week without a Dan chat is like:_________. I say a week of Sky Line Chili for breakfast lunch and dinner🤮🤮🤮🤮🤢

Dan Szymborski: You guys should be thankful for a week off.

CamdenWarehouse: I still want to see you make baseball writer royal rumble

Dan Szymborski: I *do* have Carson.

Dan Szymborski:

LFC Mike: Adam Eaton would have minor league players sleeping in the dugout …and be thankful for it.

Dan Szymborski: https://postimg.cc/gallery/kpgnrn5s/

CamdenWarehouse: When do you think the Orioles release Davis?

Dan Szymborski: Not until last year or two probably.

Dan Szymborski: I already would have out of mercy

Big Dog: Trade Bauer for Goldy and pick up Archer to replace Bauer?

Dan Szymborski: Meh-minus

James : How legit is Yordan? BABIP won’t hold but the kid can mash.

Dan Szymborski: The power is ultra-legit

Dbo: Is a grilled cheese allowed to have anything other than cheese? Once you add something like ham then wouldnt it be a melt?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t given much thought to grilled cheese classification.

Dan Szymborski: Though I like to put an egg in my grilled cheese. When you get the hang of it, you can bite into it and get a nice runny egg yolk too.

LFC Mike: Above all …..Happy 1 year anniversary at FG Dan😀😀😀😀😀😀😃

Dan Szymborski: Thanks! I hope you guys have enjoyed my work.

Aaron: Does the Cashner trade move the needle for the Sox by more than 0.00%?  Seems like a completely pointless acquisition.

Dan Szymborski: I wrote a piece on it!

Bobby B: Nate Lowe gonna start all season you think?

Dan Szymborski: I think he probably should.

bats and balls : dan will the phillies make the playoffs

Dan Szymborski: I would lean towards no.

Defenestrater: If I have two slices of bread then reattach them with an adhesive that is not bread based then does that make it a sandwich?

Dan Szymborski: what is the nature of the hinge?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not quite visualizing this

Matt: Measured in milliliters, what would you say is the average amount of winning you excrete in a day?

Dan Szymborski: I’m good at existing more than winning

Dbo: ITS CALLED BURGER KING, NOT TACO KING DAN! BURGER KING SHOULD STICK TO BURGERS AND LEAVE TACOS TO THE MASTERS AT TACO BELL!

Dan Szymborski: I’m still fuzzy as to the nature of Burger King government. Is it a constitutional monarchy?

Matt: You seem to be implying that achieving “rascal status” would not be a positive for life goals. I, however, disagree

Dan Szymborski: I meant this rascal

Dan Szymborski:

Matt: Dan, Hitler used to eat lunch at 11:30 or 1. Nelson Mandela and Gandhi were strict 11 o’clockers. Be on the right side of history, Dan.

Dan Szymborski: I celebrate not being Hitler by not being a vegetarian!

My name is Judge…: why arent the royals going to trade merrifield?  he is 30 and will not be a good player when they are ready to compete again.  i feel like the return for him would give them large boost in their next window.  He would fit nicely with the cubs (amaya and happ/almora)

Dan Szymborski: Because Royals.

Dan Szymborski: It’s like asking why the president won’t just stay off of Twitter

Matt: The most likely player currently playing for not the Yankees who will be playing for the Yankees in August is _____________.

Dan Szymborski: Stroman

CamdenWarehouse: Like they don’t have FG chats in Cleveland…

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, think of our panel as a live Szym chat.

James : Does Greinke get traded? How does that contract affect his market?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he does right now.

John Montague: Galileo between two slices of bread would be: A) A Catwich B) Adorable C) slightly disturbing D) Lunch for your other two cats.

Dan Szymborski: abd

Dan Szymborski: abc

Dan Szymborski: The other cats always respect Galileo’s authority.

Dan Szymborski: Even Cassiopeia, who did not know Galileo at his peak, will be wary of him if he wants something.

Slothrop: do you think you could build a climate model from scratch dan if they gave you all the necessary parameters and such

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, maybe? Perhaps I’m being optimistic

Dan Szymborski: There’s a lot of spcialized knowledge I don’t have

Dan Szymborski: I’d probably do better at something more straightforward, like hurricane models.

Dan Szymborski: But there are way smarter people than me doing that, so no real purpose.

Victor Robles: Are bunt attempts included in my soft/med/hard hit rates?

Dan Szymborski: I believe so, but I’m not actually positive.

kevinthecomic: Why would the Rockies sign Yonder Alonso?  Wouldn’t it make more sense to see if they could teach Sam Hilliard to play 1B and bring his bat up to The Show if so?  Is this just a case of the Rockies being the Rockies?

Dan Szymborski: Well, the Rockies can always use offense and their manager doens’t know that WAR isn’t just player age minus 25.

James : Can the Astros get Boyd without Tucker or Whitley?

Dan Szymborski: I think so, but it would have to be a decent package

Dan Szymborski: But I’m not sure about the Tigers. They were quite unreasonable when it came to their Fulmer demands.

Pete: Astro’s grooming Josh James to be their #5 starter?

Dan Szymborski: I believe he’ll be in the rotation long term.

Matt: I tried to search for that Fancy Adam Eaton Twitter account you often screenshot, but…it was some random guy who hasn’t tweeted in like 3 years. What gives?

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a real twitter account.

Dan Szymborski: I had a possibly mistaken belief that this was apparent!

Dan Szymborski: Twitter doesn’t timestamp things in Fancy Time

Ryan: What are the chances the Angels make a move for a controllable SP this year?

Dan Szymborski: Low

HE: Oh yes I really hate Murray Chassbobski now.  Why didn’t you share earlier?! Is he going to try to have his grandson fight your grandson?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even have a grandson!

Dan Szymborski: Or any kids, for that matter.

HE: Digital Dandy????  What am I reading?!

Dan Szymborski: That’s where I adopted that nickname.

Eppler: please try to make sense of Gareth Morgan’s stat line this year. Is he as true a 20 bat 80 power as there is in the world of prospects?

Dan Szymborski: I actually think he should be promoted. If you’re slugging .600, you’re probably not an environment in which you’re incentivized to work on other issues.

Dan Szymborski: He’s being rewarded in A-ball for being extremely aggressive. At AA, that’s harder.

Matt: “The government is a lot like a Burger King. If you’re unhappy, you can ask to speak to the manager…but you will never get to speak to the owner.” – KRS-ONE

Matt: Is it true that a Manwich doesn’t include any amount of man?

Dan Szymborski: It’s mostly ketchup based. They stopped including people after the people shortage during Spanish Flu.

PD: Will Zips validate the rankings on THE BOARD? Just off hand, beyond Wander, THE BOARD feels a bit optimistic about the next 9 prospects.

Dan Szymborski: You shoudln’t be using ZiPS to validate or invalidate other people’s rankings. It’s just another data-based opinion.

Ryan: Twins still haven’ t lost three in a row. If they lose their next two games, they’ll have their first three game losing streak at game 94, which would be the tenth latest in a season a team had their first three game losing streak since 1900.

Dbo: A grilled cheese is not a sandwich because the cheese acts as an adhesive and it is no longer two slices of bread

Dan Szymborski: Interesting.

Soxtober2020: Have you given Teppen a shot yet?

Dan Szymborski: No. If you want me to play, release it for Windows.

Cashman: Hear me out. I get Stroman, and with so little time left, I just put Severino in the bullpen and if he comes back with Betances, just straight bullpen any nonTanaka/Paxton/Stroman game after a few innings (or any game that starts poorly). Chapman, Green, Kahnle, Ottavino, Britton, Severino, Betances. Also CC can be there too.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve heard worse ideas

Keith: What was behind Jo Adell being upgraded to a 65? Is the bat tool looking better with his improved K/BB ratio?

Dan Szymborski: Gotta ask McDongenhagen.

Jay Bruce Is Not Afraid: Why aren’t more people writing about Mookie Betts’ mediocre season?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I’d describe it as mediocre.

Dan Szymborski: It’s just normal.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure one can describe a 5+ WAR season as mediocre.

Dan Szymborski: You sir, are a greedy greedy man and people should be able to enter your house and take your belongings.

Magic Kingdome: Which Fangraphs alumni did you see in Cleveland?

Dan Szymborski: Travis obviously since he was at our panel. Sat with Mike Petriello some during Futures.

Dan Szymborski: That’st when he revealed that Statcast didn’t collect data for the celebrity softball game

Dan Szymborski: Which really disappointed me.

stever20: do you think the Angels could go on a run similar to what the Redskins did 10 years ago after Sean Taylor’s death?

Dan Szymborski: Probalby not. Baseball’s not an emotional game in that sense where you can carry that high for 60 games.

Ryan: Rizzo’s comments about pitching inside sure seem to come across as pretty whiny, no?

Dan Szymborski: Their teammate got hit in the helmet after all.

Jay Bruce Is Not Afraid: Jordan Lyles or Trevor Williams ROS?

Dan Szymborski: Twilly

Q-Ball: Robel Garcia!!!!  Thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: I had to do a Robel projection for DMB midseason update. For the first time ever, it looked like no hitters would debut that I didn’t run a projection for.

Jay Bruce Is Not Afraid: Betts’ 2019 WAR is 3.6

Dan Szymborski: Yes and it’s mid-july

Jay Bruce Is Not Afraid: Offensive WAR 2.7 c’mon Dan

Dan Szymborski: If that’s mediocre, you gotta relearn the word.

Dan Szymborski: 3.6 WAR in July is having a 5+ WAR season.

Dan Szymborski: Even if he *finishes* at 3.6 WAR after playign replacement level for 2 1/2 months, that’s still not a mediocre season.

My name is Judge…: will you be storming area 51 in September?

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: I think it woudl be funny if they were successful and they find out Area 51 is just where the government stashes old couches that they find on curbs.

Dan Szymborski: And let’s be honest, the first dumbass getting shot will just send them all running the other way

Dan Szymborski: Unarmed weirdos is not a highly efficient army.

Nate: To piggyback on the Astros starter questions…if you assume Kyle Tucker is necessary to land someone like Boyd/Stroman/Bauer/Syndergaard…better to do that? Or target a rental like Wheeler and keep Tucker?

Dan Szymborski: If you can get a Syndergaard, then you can talk about the better prospects.

Defenestrater: With the adhesive “sandwich” I think I was visualizing it differently than an earlier comment about bread and adhesive. I was visualizing it as adhesive on the broad sides of the bread, where as I now think the earlier commenter was visualizing it as adhesive connecting two pieces of bread to make a longer piece of bread (not thicker)

Dan Szymborski: I’m gong to need a practical video or something.

Dan Szymborski: You can’t just launch bread-based adhesive questions at me going in cold.

Ron: Ryan Yarbrough or John Means.  Trying to compare the two.  Any thoughts, Dan?

Dan Szymborski: Still prefer Yarbrough, but Means’s changeup is good enough that he’s interesting

John Montague: Dan. If you held A Loser Leave Town match or a Texas Death Match or A Royal Cat Rumble.  Galileo would win?

Dan Szymborski: Like me fighting him? I can take him.

Dan Szymborski: No cat can defeat laundry basket jail

Gub Gub: If a team had four pitchers combine for a perfect game, should the rest of the team expect  four spectacular gifts from each pitcher, like a divorced Christmas situation, or four mediocre gifts, like a shared birthday party?

Dan Szymborski: I think the pitchers have to combine and buy a single spectacular gift together.

Jay Bruce Is Not Afraid: It’s mediocre for a supposed superstar — ok I’m done, thanks for doing these chats

Dan Szymborski: What does mediocre for a superstar mean?

Dan Szymborski: Teams don’t win games relative to expectations.

Dan Szymborski: Betts is having a normal star-level season. He’s not Mike Trout

Dan Szymborski: Usain Bolt isn’t mediocre if he runs a 9.90 100.

Laxtonto : Is it time for a beer? Or maybe a snack?

Dan Szymborski: No, I have Oakland radio in a few minutes.

David: If a grilled cheese is not a sandwich, then you can’t consider a PB&J a sandwich, which is silly.

CamdenWarehouse: I think they meant the cats in a match

Larry Borehole D.D.S.: Do you think there’s any chance of a Mackenzie Gore September callup?

Dan Szymborski: That might be a little aggressive.

Gub Gub: If hitters are allowed to bat-flip and admire homers (which I believe they should), then pitchers should be allowed to bang a giant gong when they strike a guy out

Dan Szymborski: I’d be in favor.

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have to go a couple minutes early today as I have a 1 PM appointment.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone! Hope to see you all next week.