Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/20/23

Dan Szymborski: https://getyarn.io/yarn-clip/e86a78a7-713d-4d6b-8a93-4fad86923866

bk: Dan, how does ZiPS like Orelvis Martinez moving forward after his breakout season this year (so far)?

Dan Szymborski: Martinez is back to pretty much where his projection was – ZiPS was already aggressive with him

Dan Szymborski: His projection really fell off in the earl going, but he’s been much better last couple months

Kyle: Outside of the big names being thrown around (Ohtani/Soto) which players that will be available at the deadline do you think would best help the Phillies?

Dan Szymborski: Outside of the big names, it gets unimpressive quickly!

Dan Szymborski: I could see the Phillies landing Goldschmidt, if he’s actually available

Dan Szymborski: I’m still not sure psychologically who the Cards actually are willing to trade without a ROFLCopter offer

Cito’s Mustache: Buxton seems to be in a bad place.  Who do you prefer ROS, Buxton or say Brian De La Cruz

Dan Szymborski: Still Boxton

brad: Random q that’s maybe better asked of EL but you’re here so… is an 80 grade pitching prospect possible, especially given modern decreasing workloads and injury risk, and ifso, what would one look like? Young Clemens without an injury history?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe Strasburg?

Dan Szymborski: I think the hard part is that workload is tricky; can any prospect actually establish they’re truly durable?

Dan Szymborski: And if nobody can ever be an 80, should that be the standard of 80?

Dan Szymborski: But as you note, this is a question for Eric and people who directly use the system, rather than my ideals!

Retired WFT Fan: Do you believe in Kyle Bradish?

Dan Szymborski: Moderately so

Run Flagstaff: Should Elly De La Cruz maybe be back in the minors? wRC+ of 99 with bad plate discipline/swing decisions

Dan Szymborski: No. He destroyed minor league pitching and needs to learn these things in the majors. The Reds are surprisingly deep offensively, but he’s still a very good option

GoBarves: Dan, been loving the in-season ZiPS gainers/decliners articles! Suuuuper helpful to see which performances actually move the needle for the your computer! Appreciate you and your work!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks!

Cito’s Mustache: Hunter Brown has has a rough go lately.  Who do you like ROS, Brown or Cobb?

Dan Szymborski: Cobb

Dan Szymborski: but I’m a fan of healthy Cobb

Daniel: Since developing ZiPS, what is the biggest surprise/insight did you get about a team? (ie The biggest difference in your analysis/perception and ZiPS projection that made you change your view?)

Dan Szymborski: I can’t say which team

Dan Szymborski: But the early years of ZiPS definitely showed me that I needed to project depth in a meaningful way

Dan Szymborski: Which is what motivated my methodology, which really tries to do this

GoBarves: Any data on Pfaadt from ZiPS? Is he going to show up on the pitcher decliner list or is his cup of coffee worth throwing out like lukewarm office drip? Or shall we hold for that premium pour over he was looking like in the PCL last year?

Dan Szymborski: He is going to still have a good projection, but he’s on the decliners list.

Guest: Given the burdensome contracts of LeMahieu, Stanton and Rizzo, what should/could the Yankees do to right the ship for 2024?

Dan Szymborski: I actually think they’re at the point in which a retool is necessary

Dan Szymborski: I think there are enough holes now that they can’t just slap on another coat of paint around Judge

Guest: Elly De La Cruz is currently at .280/.319/.447/.765 with a 31.3% K rate.  Yes he’s incredibly exciting, but should we pump the breaks on the hype?

Dan Szymborski: brakes, certainly

Dan Szymborski: People who think he’s A-Rod or Tatis are on crack

God: Were the Royals wrong to fire Dayton Moore

Dan Szymborski: No

Dan Szymborski: The problem is that they didn’t go far enough: they needed to fire Dayton Moore *and* fire his way of operating

Dan Szymborski: It’s like when the Rockies got rid of Dan O’Dowd

Dan Szymborski: firing a GM doesn’t really do anything if the replacement is just going to run the team in the same way, whether it’s their choice or it’s driven by ownership

Chip: If the Yankees fired Brian Cashman and put you in charge, are you buying, selling, or holding at the TD?

Dan Szymborski: Sell

John: What do you think it would cost the Cards to acquire a pitcher like Cease?

Dan Szymborski: You’d have to start with Winn and a lot more

Dan Szymborski: 2.5 years of Cease is a lot

Dan Szymborski: I’m really going to get reamed for this, but I’d offer more for Cease than I would for Ohtani

Dave: maybe i’m overthinking this and confusing myself but is there anything inherently wrong with the fact that all advanced defensive stats (as far as i’m aware) are always presented as compared to league average and there’s no real “raw” stats to use to isolate a single player’s year over year changes. thinking that a player could see big swings in OPS+ due to league environment changes but you could see their .850 OPS three years in a row and maybe they didn’t change but the league did. meanwhile an objectively league average 2B defender would see a huge drop in defensive stats if every team decided to play their SS at 2B instead, but there’s no “raw” defensive stats to see your “league average” 2B is the same defender, just in a different league environment.

Dan Szymborski: I think you’re overthinking and the cues are in the question themselves.

Dan Szymborski: *If* there was an unrealistic scenario like this, there could be a problem, but this kind of thing would be self-correcting quickly, even in the astronomically unlikely scenario in which it matters

Dan Szymborski: Imagine everyone moves their 1B to SS

Dan Szymborski: How long do you think that would last, even if the average 1B as an average SS is a league average defender at short?

Dan Szymborski: Even if the relative value was the same, fans and teams can easily see the rates at which those first basestops were turning plays was far far lower than it previously was

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, *most* statistical things break down in implausible scenarios because they’re designed to work in plausible ones.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a bit like worrying that evolution is broken because sex in space might not work properly

Dan Szymborski: Like, well, of course sex in space might not work properly because there was no way that we evolved to that point

Dan Szymborski: It’s not a flaw; you’d just have to find another solution

SalisburySteak: If you were Mike Elias, what move(s) would you try to make right now? Who would you target, and who would you be willing to give up?

Dan Szymborski: We just talked about Cease and I’d love the O’s to go after him

Dan Szymborski: I’d certainly give up Westburg + for him and I’ve been stanning for Westburg for years now

Sam: Ignoring injuries and stuff at what % playoff odds should a team decide to be sellers.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think you can set a hard number like this

Dan Szymborski: It depends on the realistic short-term goals of the situation and their recent success and lots and lots of other factors

Ken: Hey Dan, love the 2024 most improved series.  Has Jarren Duran’s stock improved much or is ZiPS not really buying it yet?

Dan Szymborski: It’s improved, but not enough to go nuts about yet – ZiPS is taking a pretty good chunk off his proejction

Tim: Even the Strider updated projection seems a little low. What’s holding him back? Injury risk? Or just not enough track record yet?

Dan Szymborski: Top pitcher projections always seem low because they include a substantial amount of risk baked into the cake

Josiah: if the angels decide to move Shohei, and dodgers offer best package, should angels take it or are the optics just too much to overcome?

Dan Szymborski: They should in this case, but I’m nto sure they do

I got the blues: Hi Dan, I have D Varsho at C. Is it time to cut bait yet? 5×5 roto, 1 C league

Dan Szymborski: I’m still moderately optimistic about him

Yankees fandom: Talk us off a ledge here, Dan. And none of that backhanded Orioles fan sass even though you’re enjoying the novelty of it all.

Dan Szymborski: I mean, the Yankees are in list, but they’re still above .500 even with all the crap

Dan Szymborski: This team would be leading the Central divsiions, I think

Theo be Praised: Is Trey Mancini toast?  And in general, how do you determine if an aging player is slumping a bit, or toast, or turning golden brown?

Dan Szymborski: Well, you’d have to take a bite, but I don’t think the MLBPA likes that

Dan Szymborski: I’m quite worried though.

Dan Szymborski: The thing about Mancini was that he really was only all that good in one season

Dan Szymborski: And then he got shut down due to his fight with cancer

Dan Szymborski: Which is amazing

Dan Szymborski: But he was usually a pretty bland hitter for a guy with little or no defensive value outside of 2019

Dan Szymborski: I tried to tell other O’s fans that when they were all panicking about how the O’s were DESTROYING their playoff chances by trading Mancini

Guest: I believe in Kyle Bradish 100%. I’m less sure about his talent as a major league pitcher.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not 100% sure any of us exist

James: Is Chas McCormick good?

Dan Szymborski: I think so

Withrow: Cardinals have gone from 4th among 30 teams in Defensive Efficiency Ratio in 2021 to 13th last year and 30th this year. How much does this matter? And how does something like that happen?

Dan Szymborski: Well, losing Bader certainly hurts there and adding Wwalker does too

The Other Dan: Hi Dan. You mentioned in the ZiPs second half piece that you were pleased the giants were playing well because ZiPs had them at 88ish wins. A big part of their success so far has been the rookies, especially Patrick Bailey, which not many people, and I’m assuming ZiPs, saw coming. Do you ever look at ZiPs being right about a team but for the wrong reasons?

Dan Szymborski: Oh, this happens all the time!

Dan Szymborski: I think the problem is, when doing a look at it, is that it’s *all* probability

Dan Szymborski: The Giants succeeded in the projections for all sorts of reasons and they weren’t always the same reasons.

Theo be Praised: Is the gap between the Majors and AAA pitching wider than it used to be?  Seems like so many players RAKE in AAA, and struggle in the bigs.

Dan Szymborski: Arguably it’s even smaller for pitchers because of the offensive changes

Dan Szymborski: Triple-A offense these days is so high relative to even the bumped majors that in hitters’ park, a player’s translated ERA is basically his minor league ERA!

Random Nerd: Hi Dan, Im embarking on a project to quantify command with only statcast data from pybaseball. Do you have any insights on what you think is important to recognize when trying to understand command. With your background, I assume you have background with python and pybaseball! Thanks!

Dan Szymborski: I’m actually *not* a python guy

Dan Szymborski: Back when I was in college I did C++ for the related credits

Dan Szymborski: and we used stuff more like Statistica at the time

Dan Szymborski: I know Visual Basic far better

Dan Szymborski: That’s not to say that people *shouldn’t* learn python

Dan Szymborski: Only that I had to learn to do stuff before Python 2.0

Doug: Are you surprised how quickly Tatis got back ton himself after his injuries? And now kor

Dan Szymborski: No

Retired WFT Fan: What data/metrics would you love to see on the hitting side of the equation?

Tiger Fan: How often  do teams that really need to blow it up all the way for 2+ years (in ZiPs perspective at least) just try to gut it out? Flip the rentals, sign some short term guys, status quo kinda stuff. And how much does that usually hurt their short and long term projections?

Dan Szymborski: I want more bat speed data available!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I can define the answer to your question that easily Tiger Fan as I haven’t specifically studied this

Dan Szymborski: But generally speaking, I think teams, for obvious reasons, are sometimes far too slow to blow things up

Dan Szymborski: As a general belief, I think teams should look at transactions and roster spots as always “does this help us win now?” and “does this help us win later?”

Dan Szymborski: And if something or someone doesn’t answer Yes to either question, then the team needs to figure out how to get that something or someone that does

Theo be Praised: Is it me, or are the A’s now terrible at trading?  The returns on Murphy, Olsen, etc, look terrible in hindsight.

Dan Szymborski: It’s not looking great

Chas: Am I… a top 10 CFer?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS at least has him getting *near* there on a per PA basis

Dan Szymborski: like 11th-14th depending on who you call a CF

Dan Szymborski: Since we ahve questions like “will buxton ever play the OF again”

RTJ: is the emphasis on framing (which is warranted, no doubt) resulting in catchers not catching pitches more often than in the past? Or am I making this up in my mind?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what the connection is

The Batman: I don’t have a baseball question or even a question question, I just wanted to say the fishing pole/wand cat toys you recommended/linked to a while back are elite. Even my cat who never plays loves them a crazy amount!

Dan Szymborski: For those who don’t rmeember, my cats frigging love these

Dan Szymborski: https://www.walmart.com/ip/Cat-Toys-Interactive-Feather-Wand-Kitten-Re…

Dan Szymborski: Long pole, long fishing line

Dan Szymborski: The catlets tend to chomp through the elastic string on most fishing poles very quickly. And I like the detachable “lures” so that the whole thing isn’t binned when they maul one of the lures

Key Flaw: If you had a great pitching but bad hitting team vs a bad pitching but great hitting team, which one will have more of a chance of winning (assuming same levels of good and bad)? Like, is the variance in hitting or pitching around “good” and “bad” more acceptable for a club?

Dan Szymborski: I have no idea where to find it now as I did the look on usenet like 15 years ago, but I found zero difference

Dan Szymborski: (I used league ranks)

Ben: Any middle infielders stand out as trade fits for the Giants? Crawford is having another down year at the plate, is currently on the IL, and is on an expiring contract. Estrada is on the IL as well. Casey Schmitt and Brett Wisely haven’t exactly run away with those jobs as fill-ins.

Dan Szymborski: it’s too bad Tim Anderson has bombed

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, outside of the top couple of players, I think this is going to be a downer of a deadline

Dan Szymborski: There are too many teams in contention and most of the teams not in contention have already bled off most of their talent

Dan Szymborski: And the Rockies won’t trade players like McMahon

C-Low: Metrics seem to be down on Rutschman’s defense. Aside from his caught stealing numbers being poor, what has been the biggest culprit?

Dan Szymborski: Well, his framing hasn’t matched last year’s stats. But in any case, people should rarely panic about one year defensive stats

Dan Szymborski: (or celebrate)

Dan Szymborski: OAA is only slightly less volatile, for example (though that’s not relevant for Adley)

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, I’d probably shy away from loooong contracts from catchers who are very framing based

Dan Szymborski: (note that’s not Adley of course)

Dan Szymborski: Because I still think computer balls/strikes is going to come surprisingly quickly

Tacoby Bellsbury: That scenario is Ryan Doumit being unframed out of being a catcher, and the defensive variance of catchers disappearing overnight. Other catchers didn’t get worse at framing, but it simply made them less valuable in comparison to their improving peers.

Blibbs: Aaron Judge just ran the bases yesterday…and Stanton pulled a hammy watching him…

GoBarves: Any chance we’ll get a ZiPS Top 100 midseason update?? (Pretty pleaaaase)

Dan Szymborski: I may do an update in August or even trade deadline week

Dan Szymborski: depending

Blibbs: Dan, how do you think fantasy baseball players should handle discrepancies between “real life” production like ERA, HR, etc. and expected statistics when evaluating a player’s potential for the remainder of the year?  Thank you

Dan Szymborski: When the expected statistics drastically effect fantasy-tracked stats, they should take them very seriously

RTJ: has there ever been a team with a winning record with as much public perception of how bad they are than the Yankees right now?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even know how to measure that! lol I’m sure Mets would be somewhere on that list

Dan Szymborski: (not these Mets, but some Mets teams)

Dan Szymborski: (since these Mets do not have a winning record)

Dan Szymborski: The Yankees definitely “feel” worse than they are

Guest: How much longer does someone like Vlad Jr have to perform at simply an above-average level before projection systems no longer view him as an elite hitter?

Dan Szymborski: Depends if his advanced metrics hold up

Guest: Given what might be the beginning of Trout’s decline years, no more SBs, and health issues, if someone offered you Elly for Trout straight up in a dynasty league, would you do it?  I love trades where both owners would be terrified that they could end up looking like total idiots

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think I would because there’s a great deal of associated risk with Trout

Dan Szymborski: and it, of course, depends on the dynasty keeper terms

JWR: Loving your recent articles and have an idea for another article…posting Cody Bellinger’s future projections at various dates over the last four years.  I imagine that few players have seen their projections roller coaster more than Bellinger during that time.  Care to predict what he will get in the offseason as a free agent?

Dan Szymborski: I may do something on himi next month

JWR: The rumbles in Chicago is that Matt Mervis is a 4A player, as he failed his MLB trial earlier this year, even though he hit before the trial and is hitting again in AAA.  But do we have any sense of what type of player is in fact a 4A player?  Or should we trust that Mervis’ AAA production will eventually translate to the majors if given more rope?

Dan Szymborski: People who make that judgment in 90 PA shouldn’t have their judgments ever trusted

1994 Expos: Hey, Dan. Do you know if all 3 of a team’s primary starting OFs all had 6.0+ WAR in the same season? Discussing with some buddies the 1994 Expos OF of Alou, Grissom, and Walker. They all had 4.0+ WAR at the time of the strike and were *roughly on pace* for 6.0+ WAR. Just curious if it’s ever happened before. Thanks

Dan Szymborski: off-hand, no, and it’s awkward to try and do this quickly on a laptop!

Bighen: I think if Mets get to .500 by call it august 15th I think they have a good shot – too optimistic?

Dan Szymborski: I mean at a playoff spot, sure

Dan Szymborski: but it’s going to be tough given what’s baked into the cake

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan Dan DAN.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Have you ever seen the magic card Dandan?

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: I had not seen it

Dan Szymborski: What I *did* see is that some group makes, in Second Life, what is surely the best damn pickup truck to ever exist.

Dan Szymborski:

Scrapper: Article idea–projections for Ohtani’s next contract, with different hypotheticals, including where he is exclusively a hitter and where he becomes a RF/high leverage reliever.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure this one would be super-interesting as we don’t have a lot of data on two-way players like Ohtani and how they develop if only going with one thing

Dan Szymborski: because the two-way players like Ohtani are basically…Ohtani

Billy: What does Zips think about Adolis Garcia being a top 20 player going forward?

Dan Szymborski: It does not concur

Guest: …I believe in Kyle Bradish 100% within the framework that most of us perceive as reality

JWR: Has any organization had a better first half of the season than the Reds?  It seems like many of their young players are performing at the very highest point of their preseason projections.

Dan Szymborski: It’s kinda like the O’s last year – something like 13 of the top 15 prospects had their projections go up in the first three months

JWR: What is the most that you can recall a player’s ZIP projections changing within the course of a year?

Dan Szymborski: I think Dellin Betances when he was young

MilwaukeeBeerJays: If Cincinnati makes the playoffs, with you rescind your chili dogma?

Dan Szymborski: Never. If they made the playoffs, it wouldn’t be due to chili

Joe Randa: Do you use R at all? Are there any languages you would recommend avoiding for any baseball related projects?

Dan Szymborski: Only when I need to. I like to think I’m fairly clever at this point at getting what I need in the ways I’m most comfortable

Dan Szymborski: as for languages, I’m not an expert there remotely

Dan Szymborski: I’d bug @octonion on Twitter

Dan Szymborski: Because he spends his middle of the night learning new languages and complex mathematical issues

Dan Szymborski: whiel my middle of the nights are usually AI pictures

Dan Szymborski: Which is fine with me!

Dan Szymborski:

Cat Damon: CAT. DAMON.

Nate: Help me settle a dispute. I work with just one other person, they hate being cold. But it’s miserably warm…

What’s the proper thermostat temperature, and why is it 66 degrees?

Dan Szymborski: My house is too big for me to do 66 degrees, especially because then my office will be about 50

Dan Szymborski: though I’m there in the winter

Oddball Herrera: Everyone knows the best language for baseball related projects is Esperanto

Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to head out for another week.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone

Jason: How long do the AI pictures that you post on Twitter (often involving satirical photos of historical figures and baseball players) take to generate?  Many of them are quite spectacular.

Dan Szymborski: Surprisngly not that long. Unless I take time to do some inpainting cleanup of things like extra fingers or stray hands

Dan Szymborski: