Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 7/30/18

1:59	Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s get this party started.

1:59	Dan Szymborski: Not only have I left emotes on, but I’ve put “Peanut Gallery” on.

1:59	Dan Szymborski: Which may be the biggest disaster ever, never to be repeated, but let’s try!

2:00	Dan Szymborski: Seems to work. Trade Deadline is supposed to be a non-stop erotic cabaret, so we can take some risks.

2:00	Bret: Will the Blue Jays be able to trade Roberto Osuna? If so, how much of a discount will they need to give?

2:00	Dan Szymborski: Aroldis Chapman was traded. I expected they don’t, though.

2:00	LudeBurger: It’s Szymborski chat, it’s Szymborski chat, welcome to Szymborski chat!

2:00	Crunchy Black: Why are the Reds the way they are?

2:01	Dan Szymborski: There’s a streak of conservatism in the organization, that keeps them from trading guys they really like. Caused them to miss the best hauls for Frazier, Chapman and probably will for Gennett and Iglesias.

2:02	Dan Szymborski: Wasn’t popular, but I thought they should be talking trades with Duvall after 2016, he was alsoways going to be a guy who was good for a few years and more valuable to a team winning right now that has a hole.

2:02	Dan Szymborski: Same with Schebler soon.

2:03	Josh Nelson: What would ZiPS rest of season projection be for Eloy Jimenez is the White Sox do the right thing by promoting him to the majors?

2:04	Dan Szymborski: Been about a week since I looked at that, but it was an OBP around .330 and a SLG approaching .500, similar to Steamer

2:04	Rob Bro: Bote has impressed with both his hitting and defense. Think he can settle in as an above average regular or super utility?

2:04	Dan Szymborski: He’s hit very well in the minors last couple of years. If the Cubs believe in him enough to use him at short, he’s an extremely useful role player at least.

2:05	Dan Szymborski: Good on the Cubs to look at a guy like that rather than just get some craptacular veteran.

2:05	Kvn: True or False:

2:05	Dan Szymborski: True

2:05	Dan Szymborski: It has to be one or the other, so the statement is ture.

2:05	Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: The Orioles traded FOR international money? Are they just going to trade it away?

2:05	Dan Szymborski: I don’t know. Things are different and I’m scared.

2:05

Erik: If an MLB team hired an elite coach from another sport, say Belichik or Popovich or someone similar, and surrounded him with a solid support staff, would they do better or worse than hiring the typical first-time manager? In other words, how much of managing is the sort of people skills that that sort of coach presumably possesses and how much of it is baseball-specific?

2:06	Dan Szymborski: I think it’s very possible that this could be successful, so long as the person is respected enough for the players to take seriously.

2:07	Dan Szymborski: When it comes down to it, baseball isn’t truly a game of tactics, but an individual game on a team concept in which long-term strategies are more important.

2:07	Matt: Dan – I have visual evidence that you once pooped in a place where you should not have at the age of 2. Do you regret these decisions that you made, and are you willing to publicly apologize?

2:07	Dan Szymborski: I want to know why my mom was taking pictures of that.

2:07	Dan’s Hate Mail Finale: Hi Dan!

2:07	Dan Szymborski: Yo!

2:07	PD: Newcomb and Turner

2:07	Dan Szymborski: HOW DO YOU NOT DELETE CRAP AFTER HADER

2:08	Dan Szymborski: I understand people acting crappy. We all act crappy, but hopefully not to that particular degree.

2:08	Dan Szymborski: But stupid, I just can’t forgive.

2:08	Dan Szymborski: It’s a product of how I was raised. The worst thing you could be in my family was a dumbass.

2:09	Billy Beane: Hey Dan, you didn’t propose a trade for the A’s. What gives?

2:09	Dan Szymborski: I was ac tually th inking about how to get them Harper

2:09	PD: Spider-Man Pointing Meme Newcomb and Turner

2:11	Dan Szymborski: Most probably my grandfather’s influence.

2:11	Clemson: What kind of decks do you prefer in HS? I generally prefer control or off-meta/meme decks (played almost exclusively renounce warlock until that rotated out of standard).

2:11	Dan Szymborski: I prefer control decks too. I usually try to make a control Paladin deck plausible.

2:11

bighen: what is the Mets path? You could argue that they’re very unlikely to ever get even this health/performance from their big 4 again and they still can’t win. Add in that Yo is missing half of next year again at best and how can they compete in 2019? They aren’t signing impact bats and don’t have any coming up. Tough spot

2:11	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they’re going to win without spending more money than they will spend.

2:12	Dan Szymborski: They can’t compete with the Braves in prospects or the Phillies in money.

2:12	Dan Szymborski: So what’s the upside?

2:12	Dan Szymborski: I think they tread water for the next five years.

2:12	WIN: Is Delino DeShields worth a pick up or is he just done for the year? I do need stolen bases.

2:12	Dan Szymborski: I’d shy away, he’s been really bad. Depends how much you can absorb in cost elsewhere for those SBs.

2:12	CamdenWarehouse: Lost in all the Twitter talk this weekend is that Hall of Fame just inducted a guy who told a female reporter “I don’t talk to women when I’m naked unless I’m on top of them or they’re on top of me.” Of course they also outright rejected the BBWAA’s judgement of the player.

2:13	Dan Szymborski: I’ve talked about Jennifer Frey on Twitter at times about Morris.

2:13	Dan Szymborski: Every writer I’ve talked to who was there still remains shocked at how Morris acted. It wasn’t done in jest or a joke that got out of hand, it was cruel and he never apologized for it.

2:14	Dan Szymborski: There are writers/reporters/broadcasters, even in Toronto/Minneapolis still that will do their best to not have anything to do with Morris (I’m not naming names of people who don’t want to be public). It was that shocking.

2:14	Bertie Wooster: Harper for Brendan Rodgers ? Who says no?

2:15	Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the Nats are truly on the trade Harper train other than surfing for ticket prices on their phones while going to the toilet

2:15

Ryan: Dan, you might have heard dayton moore’s comments on mlb network radio by now. Basically he said he would only trade the controllable players like Merrifield and Duffy for multiple players near the majors instead of low-level talent in an effort to be competitive by next year. As a terrified fan, has this ever been attempted successfully before?

2:15	Dan Szymborski: Well, if you mean win games, that’s a damn hard thing to do.

2:15	Dan Szymborski: One some level, you respect a guy who doens’t have it in his DNA to try not to win every game in every year.

2:15	Dan Szymborski: But MLB 2018 doesn’t tend to reward 1988 thinkiers.

2:15	Rob Bro: Bote Bote Bote Bote rockin’ everywhere

2:16	Dan Szymborski: Don’t tip the bote over (rock the boat) don’t rock the bote baby

2:16	Bertie Wooster: Meant to add kieboom

2:16	LFC Mike: If the Red Sox/Astros were a board game would they be Risk, Monoploly? If the Orioles/Royals were a board game would they be Candyland?

2:17	Dan Szymborski: Red Sox would be an OK but older board game.

2:17	Dan Szymborski: Astros one that Keith would love.

2:17	Dan Szymborski: Orioles chutes and ladders

2:18	Dan Szymborski: Candyland works for Royals, they occasionally live in this alternate world of candy and lollipops

2:18	Dan Szymborski: GRANDMA PEANUT BRITTLE IS NOT YOUR FRIEND

2:18	Dan Szymborski: Or whatever her name was

2:18	Pitch_Out: “winner-take-all peasant matches” – I got strange looks while laughing out loud on the bus this morning… very grateful for your work here.

2:18

Aaron: Is *less* horizontal movement *good*? For instance, Yonny Chirinos has -3.7 horizonal movement on his splitter. League average splitter has -6.1 horizonal movement. Does that mean Chirinos has above or below average horizontal movement on his splitter? Any clarifying thoughts and good resources you can point me that would help me understand what “good” hor/vert movement look like would be greatly appreciated!

2:18	Dan Szymborski: Honestly, it depends on the pitcher.

2:18	Dan Szymborski: And the game plan, their other repertoire, etc.

2:18	Dan Szymborski: I tend to think that there are too many categorical declarations about movement data sometimes.

2:19	Dan Szymborski: It’s something I’m studying a lot, but I’m always careful with new data until I’m damn sure I’m not pulling stuff out of my butt.

2:19	Dan Szymborski: SEDUCED BY THE EROTIC MANIFESTATION OF PITCH/FX IN THE BUTT sounds like a Tingle book

2:19	Kvn: The O’s trading FOR international bonus pool $’s is hugely significant right? This is the first signal that we might truly be at an inflection point in how the franchise is run.

2:19	Dan Szymborski: I’m hopeful.

2:20	Dan Szymborski: As I said, I need to get in all my nice thoughts now just in case they hire Colletti or something and bring in Freddy Galvis on a four-year deal.

2:20	CamdenWarehouse: I’m starting to think that the Orioles might actually be making real changes to how they operate. Am I going to be disappointed?

2:20	Dan Szymborski: Be cautiously optimistic, but don’t give ’em your heart.

2:20	CrashedDavis: The Os received int’l bonus money in a trade. No question, just recovering from shock and awe

2:20	Rob Bro: Ian Happ + lower prospects for Syndergaard. How fair?

2:20	Dan Szymborski: You’ll need to do better given how much Thor you get.

2:21	G: With rumors tying Gausman to the Pirates, is there some hope that a pitch-mix tweak and league change could unlock something more than a back-end pitcher?

2:21	Dan Szymborski: I actually tried to give Gausman ot the Pirates a week ago!

2:21	Dan Szymborski: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/lets-sell-the-orioles/

2:22	Dan Szymborski: I BELIEVE, but cannot prove, that I hadn’t heard of any rumors of Gausman to Pittsburgh swirling at that point.

2:22	Dan Szymborski: But even as a non-reporter, Dan hears a lot of things. Quite possibly because Dan isn’t a reporter.

2:22	Bryan: Well Met! Do you see the Reds trading any bullpen arms at the deadline? Seems like Hughes and Hernandez are easy sells. They seem too stubborn to sell Iglesias. Better to wait until his value caves.

2:22	Dan Szymborski: Secondary arms, but they’d have to be bowled over for Iglesias, unless I’m reading the tea leaves wrong.

2:22	david: Will Jordan Hicks be the Cards closer next year and will Moncada ever finish a season with an OPS above .840? Thanks.

2:22	Dan Szymborski: Yes^2

2:22	cm: If Schoop ends up having a year equivalent to last year, is he a more valuable trade chip in the winter than he is now given his first half struggles?

2:23	Dan Szymborski: It’s possible. I wouldn’t trade him later than the winter.

2:23	Matt: What’s the biggest animal you could take in a fight? No weapons or armor allowed, you are in the animals natural habitat.

2:23	Dan Szymborski: A human?

2:25	Dan Szymborski: I usually talked my way out of trouble as a kid, but the one fight I did get in, I did hurt the other kid and I’ve watched my temper since.

2:26	Dan Szymborski: Polish last name joke and I was having a bad day so I shoved the kid into the locker and kneed him in the gut. Got in-school suspended for that.

2:26	Dan Szymborski: Watched myself after that; it takes a lot, but I do have a temper.

2:27	Manuel Margot: Am I officially BACK?!

2:27	Dan Szymborski: I’m a Margot optimist.

2:28

Dan Szymborski: My dad may have not been in a position to really be able to act as my dad that often — he spent 25 years after Vietnam slowly drinking himself to death — but he *did* teach me at a young age how to defend myself if I needed to. He was really pissed about that too, that I was the aggressor and I’d have the polish last name my whole life.

2:28	Dan’s Hate Mail Finale 2.0: Dan, you are to baseball writing what Nickelback is to rock music. There.. I said it and I already feel really bad about it. You O.K. Champ?

2:28	Dan Szymborski: PLATINUM TWEETS AND COKE ORGIES, BABY!

2:28	Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Best realistic return for Chris Archer?

2:29	Dan Szymborski: I think a top 50, an interesting prospect with upside, and a couple lotto picks. He’s not Chris sale.

2:29	Gopherballs: My airplane is ready to pull away from the gate, so I will not get to read your answer until I land. Please tell me something about the future.

2:29

Dan Szymborski: Eventually, the sun will run out of hydrogen and the magnitude of the sun will burn what’s left of the the Earth and if it’s not swallowed completely by the reduced gravity, the planet will likely still be reduced to a dead, burnt husk, incapable of life after 1.2 billion years or thereabouts.

2:30	tb.25: Cutters & injury risk?

2:30	Dan Szymborski: Never studied it.

2:30	LudeBurger: you should hold a contest to see who can insult you the best

2:30	Dan Szymborski: I held a mini-one on Twitter. Winner got a Cities Skylines Deluxe Edition key.

2:30	ChiSox2020: Alright Nationals – weekend is over. Are you selling?

2:30	Dan Szymborski: I would.

2:30	Christian: Multiple Outlets are reporting Dayton Moore thinks he can short-circuit this rebuild and be competitive in 2 years. KMN!!

2:30	Dan Szymborski: I know.

2:30	Tony Womack: Why do the Yankees seem to think that they have to trade for someone to fill in for three weeks of Judge being out?

2:31	Dan Szymborski: The Yankees are playing catchup. Unless you just cede the division, it makes sense to do whatever you can.

2:31	Devil Ray Jay Johnson: Do the Royals currently have a player on their roster or in their system that will ever post a 4 win season sometime in the future?

2:31	Dan Szymborski: Soler could have one. Duffy may.

2:31	Perennial Ballboy Tryout: What is your alter ego named?

2:31	Dan Szymborski: DJ Szyzzle, the Mayor of Uppercuts

2:31	Michael J: Why in the world aren’t the Giants selling? They are eventually gonna end up like the Tigers right now, no?

2:32	Dan Szymborski: They want to give it another go in 2019.

2:32	Scott: What would it honestly take for the Phillies to give up to get Trout?

2:32	Dan Szymborski: I think they’d have to give so much that it would be a bad diea

2:32	liam: What are the chances Sonny Gray gets moved, and where do you see him going if he is traded?

2:32	Dan Szymborski: He’s not going moved, but he may be increasingly marginalized.

2:32	mario mendoza: In August 2016 we saw Gary Sanchez blow up. In August 2017 we saw Hoskins blow up. Who you got in August 2018?

2:33	Dan Szymborski: Since I’m always punished by the fates for saying bat things about the Royals, watch post-groin injury Brian Goodwin hit .500 or something.

2:34	Landa : What’s been going on with Odor lately?? Just a hot streak or has something changed?

2:34	Dan Szymborski: I was starting to lose faith. I thought he’d bounce back, but he didn’t for motnhs.

2:34	Dan Szymborski: Now he’s gone insane. I’ll have to dig through some of the split advanced data

2:34	Jake: is Omar Narvaez a decent starting Catcher? Like league average? I feel like I do a double take when I see how competent his batting line is but I know his receiving is rough

2:35	Dan Szymborski: I’m a skeptic.

2:35	Landa : Fangraphs has Wheeler as throwing a Splitter and a Changeup – is this a classification issue or does he really throw two different “offspeed” pitches?

2:35	Dan Szymborski: He actually has a splitter that he’s been trying to throw somewhat this season.

2:36	Dan Szymborski: Intentionally.

2:36	Dan Szymborski: There’s more gray area among pitches than a lot of people think.

2:36	greg: Cat update please.

2:37	Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia is sitting on the couch going to sleep. I have her toy hedgehog (Hedge Fund) so she probably won’t bother me for awhile.

2:37	Dan Szymborski: Galileo is sitting next to me, making his case for dinner.

2:37	Dan Szymborski: I last saw Mercutio at about noon running into one of the guest rooms because even though he’s nine, he’s freaked out by low chords on the piano.

2:38	Dan Szymborski: (I’m muddling my way through the rakoczy march Hungarian Rhapsody of Liszt at the moment)

2:38	Perennial Ballboy Tryout: What does Peanut Gallery do?

2:38	Dan Szymborski: You can reply to things and people can read them!

2:38	Dan Szymborski: And I cna’t do anything about it!

2:38	Johnny Coconuts: Why hasn’t Tommy Pham played left field more? He was so good in that role last season?

2:38	Dan Szymborski: Because they have Ozuna this year.

2:38	mario mendoza: wait are peanuts good or bad? I like peanuts. And if you were a performing elephant you would like to have peanuts.

2:39	Dan Szymborski: As long as you’re not allergic, peanuts are terrific.

2:39	Miguel: Luis Castillo had a very good outing yesterday. Where do you see him settling in in the Reds’ rotation over the next few years?

2:39	Dan Szymborski: I still think he has serious ace potential.

2:39	Drew: Do the Indians add an impact bat before tomorrow afternoon?

2:39	Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll play it fairly low-key without real division anxiety.

2:39	Aggressively Mediocre: Do you expect the Orioles to overcompensate in international free agent signings for a year or two and spend money just to spend it rather than actually finding value?

2:39	Dan Szymborski: No.

2:39	Dan Szymborski: But even if they do, it’s a nice change.

2:39	Ryan: Nats are off today. If you are Mike Rizzo, do you sell or hold?

2:39	Dan Szymborski: Sell.

2:39	andy: shouldn’t the rockies be doing everything they can to add an impact player? they’re awful close to being a playoff team right now (and are a few bryan shaw epic collapses away from being in the driver’s seat) and seem like they might be falling down the pirates path.

2:39	Dan Szymborski: Yes.

2:39	Dan Szymborski: They don’t realize that the bullpen isn’t the only problem.

2:40	Dan Szymborski: That is, I know their analytics people know what’s going off, but at the top, way less sure.

2:40	Jake Junis Priest: If Paul Fry gets made the closer in Baltimore, can we call him “Young Fry of Treachery”? Or is that going to be Jace Fry?

2:40	Dan Szymborski: heh

2:40	yankinstl: Is it going to become more common to see teams trading away players for international pool money?

2:40	Dan Szymborski: Yes. It’s the closest thing in baseball to straight up money or draft pick swaps

2:40	Dan Szymborski: The thing about trading international pool money is that it’s an extreme temporal swap

2:40	Dan Szymborski: One team gets the player this moment, the other team gets a prospect they’re not even aware of yet

2:41	Dan Szymborski: With the trend in baseball to either have very long or very short horizons, those types of trades are a benefit to both teams

2:41	mike sixel: Twins punted the season/Twins barely traded anyone/It doesn’t matter, there is almost no chance it matters…..which one is the most true (in terms of baseball, not existence)?

2:41	Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they screwed up – patience made sense. They’ve had a lot go wrong in the offense.

2:41	Carl: What will the Brewers do at the deadline? My impression of David Stearns is that he is very value-focused, and would be fine to stand pat if there is no value to be had in a SP trade, is that a correct read?

2:41	Dan Szymborski: There’s value, but I don’t think the Brewers need to absolutely crush the value proposition to make a good tempo trade.

2:42	Eminor3rd: How the f are you supposed to play the Wrecking Ball Hamster? No one in QP seems to know

2:42	Dan Szymborski: I haven’t figured it out myself, I mostly just roll around incompetently.

2:42	Dan Szymborski: You playing now?

2:43	Coner: I’ve noticed both Yankees and Jays fanbases displeased over the Happ trade. Thoughts, comments, concerns?

2:43	Dan Szymborski: I like it better for the Yankees. He’s not splashy, but they get what they want – someone who can be a fourth starter that won’t make you vomit with erratic rage.

2:43	Dan Szymborski: For the Jays, it’s OK value, but it seems rather unambitious. These aren’t real upside guys.

2:43	Cuban defector: Is Luke voit interesting?

2:44	Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t go that far, but I think he’s a useful role player.

2:44	Dan Szymborski: It was kind of awkward to lose Judge immediately after trading McKinney.

2:44	Nick: Dan, why do I feel like FanGraphs is posting more political articles than ever? That’s a surefire way to quickly lose members.

2:44	Dan Szymborski: I tend to stick to sports, but I’m not going to tell other writers what to do.

2:45	Dan Szymborski: People sometimes ask me “Dan, are you ever bitter that Nate thought of doing politics and you didn’t?”

2:45	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, it would’ve been cool to be on Colbert and on magazine covers and such.

2:45	Dan Szymborski: But after that, I’M A POLITICAL FIGURE. Oh god, I’d rather be smeared with honey and left to die floating in a river between two boats.

2:46	Dan Szymborski: I have opinions of my own, but like IHOP and burgers, people aren’t tuning into me to read my thoughts on politics.

2:46	Dan Szymborski: Baseball, nerd stuff, weird goofiness, cats. That’s my brand.

2:46	Dan Szymborski: And I’m under no illusion that people who like me for that stuff are going to magically like my political opinions too.

2:46	Nick: Why haven’t the Tigers traded a single guy yet?

2:46	Dan Szymborski: They’re all married.

2:47	Von Hayes: Is Kyle Tucker not the answer in LF this year for the Astros?

2:47	Dan Szymborski: Short-term, I’d like Houston to be a little risk-averse, especially after the injuries.

2:47	Alex: What type of return could Andrew McCutchen net for the Giants?

2:47	Dan Szymborski: An OKish prospect, nothing more. He’s better than Jones, but not THAT exciting.

2:47	Dan Szymborski: err MORE risk-averse.

2:47	Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I’m a moron.

2:48	Dan Szymborski: All this typing, piano, and video games, I type way faster than my brain works.

2:48	Dan Szymborski: My fingers are like cheetahs. My brain is like this weird steampunk gears full of spiders.

2:48	Bo: How often do you publish ZiPS playoff odds? I know they’re partially baked into the FanGraphs odds, but I’m curious about the ZiPS-specific ones.

2:48	Dan Szymborski: When the notion strikes me.

2:48	Dan Szymborski: GOing to be rethinking a lot of stuff this winter for my first full year at FG

2:49	Dan Szymborski: Daily minor league translations definitely in the queue.

2:49	Rick C: I was worried the international money might not pass the Orioles’ physical

2:49	Justin: Because baseball players are both young and kind of dumb (re: why not delete)?

2:49	Culturally Sensitive Twitter: If you’re the Braves, do you want Archer, Wheeler, or Stroman the most?

2:49	Dan Szymborski: Archer I think

2:51	Dan Szymborski: In my midseason update submitted to Diamond Mind — which uses translations — McNeil up to 259/321/394 from preseason 241/301/326.

2:51	Dan Szymborski: That’s a big bump.

2:51	Dewc Newcomb: my clever name looks bad now

2:51	Von Hayes: Who should take over for Alex Trebek when he retires?

2:51	Dan Szymborski: A sex robot that is programmed to act like Alex Trebek

2:51	Mike: Less fun then your actual suggestion, but wouldn’t Castellanos now make some sense for the Yankees with Judge out? Can rotate through DH/OF/3B.

2:51	Mitchell: Trade Rumors for the Tigers have been really quiet. They have to unload Fiers and Liarano at least no matter what the return basically… right?

2:51	Dan Szymborski: I expect they will.

2:51	Chris Archer: Hi Dan. Am I going to be moved? If I go anywhere outside the NL East, my pitching HAS to improve… right?

2:51	Dan Szymborski: I think in the end, the Rays hold on a little longer.

2:51	Bo: Stupidity, in order: Player for tweeting dumb things, player/agent for not deleting said tweets, twitter mafia for digging up tweets, media for blowing it out of proportion.

2:52	Dan Szymborski: It’s a whole ball of stupid, honestly.

2:52	Dan Szymborski: I’m not offended easily (despite the story above) and I have a hard time getting my gander up over words.

2:52	Dan Szymborski: Now, I won’t presume to tell anyone whether or not they should be offended or not; how other people feel is none of my business, really, I only have jurisdiction over how I act and what I do.

2:53	Nate: Is Cueto doomed for TJS?

2:53	Dan Szymborski: 🙁

2:53	PM: Do you think the A’s would have the prospects to make a run at degrom?

2:53	Dan Szymborski: My brain tells me that they wouldn’t pull it off, but you know, Beane has pulled some crazy stuff out of a hat.

2:53

Royals Fan: I know you are a big Dayton Moore fan. Is it possible that MAYBE he does have a plan? MAYBE he isn’t dumb enough to think he can rebuild over night. MAYBE he’s planning to give these post hype prospects a place in the lineup at a major league level so they can build value to flip. He certainly cannot believe the things he says in interviews.

2:53	Dan Szymborski: I’m in enough trouble about Royals stuff.

2:53	Dan Szymborski: Though I’ve survived the gauntlet of KC radio this week.

2:54	Nick: You talk extensively about hiring diverse set of writers. Can you tell me the last writer you hired that would be considered conservative? You know, 50% of the population?

2:54	Dan Szymborski: I don’t do know most writers politics.

2:54	Dan Szymborski: I guess relatively speaking, I’d be conservative, but I’m not really a conservative.

2:55	Dan Szymborski: I’m a libertarian centrist, more a Georgist than anything, but tend to revert to radical centrism because when push comes to shove, I’m a pragmatist more than a dreamer.

2:56	Dan Szymborski: I voted for Romney in 2012, but I also voted for Clinton in 1996 and Nader in 2004 (the last mostly out of him being a third party and I wouldn’t vote for Badnarik)

2:56	Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure why I’m answering this question, honestly. Trade deadline good vibes

2:57	Bo: So the Nationals aren’t going full-on seller mode, but should they? Maybe not controllable guys, but anyone not under contract beyond 2018 should be fair game (Harper aside), no?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: I think they should

2:57	Nick: And, Dan, you don’t think it’s wrong for her to be in the locker room when an athlete is naked?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: Morris wasn’t naked, he was wearing long johns

2:57	Dan Szymborski: And nobody’s in there to catch a glimpse. They’re just doing their damn job.

2:57	Nick: So looking back, the Giants had a pretty bad offseason huh? Any redemption?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: They tried though. Good faith effort goes a long way with me.

2:58	roxfan69: When the Rockies inevitably hit a wall and remember to be bad again, what will be the main cause of this downfall?

2:58	Dan Szymborski: Lack of interest in upgrading 1B/cOF

2:58	Mike: Can you run a zips projection for Nicky Lopez? What’s your thoughts on him?

2:58	Dan Szymborski: .259 .321 .343

2:58	JP: I’m starting to read some people say Eloy > Vlad Jr. Are these people onto something or on something?

2:58	Matt: The “e” is pronounced in Bote, Dan. Your song reference made no sense.

2:58	Dan Szymborski: I know, but it works better

2:59	Dan Szymborski: otherwise we just have Bote mcboatface

2:59	Names Namerson: The Mets board game is definitely Operation.

2:59	Dan Szymborski: IGNORE THE RED NOSE, HE’S FINE

2:59	Davy: I’m really enjoying your articles, Dan. Also, loved the Producers joke.

2:59	Dan Szymborski: Thanks!

2:59	Camden Yards: I miss the mid-90s when I was full every game.

2:59	mario mendoza: David Bowe/Major Tom; David Bote/Major Wom.

2:59	Matt: What are your thoughts on Bigfoot Eroticism and its place in the MLB?

3:00	Dan Szymborski: I totally want to buy one of those cheap little books out of curiosity, but I suspect I’ll read things I’m not old enough to read.

3:00	Mountie Votto: Jerry Crasnick tweeted today that the Reds weren’t keen on listening to offers for Billy Hamilton? Is that true? If so, WTF

3:00	Dan Szymborski: As I said, it’s hard for the Reds to psychologically part with guys the organization likes.

3:00	Dan Szymborski: It’s a good thing on one hand, in that they really like their guys and want them to succeed.

3:01	Dan Szymborski: (for those that haven’t heard, Bote is Bo-dee like Bode MIller)

3:01	Dan Szymborski: Even Boaty isn’t accurate

3:01	Dan Szymborski: BUt WTF makes Bode Miller joke?

3:01	Dan Szymborski: Lance Ito is barely less fresh

3:01	Jarrod Saltalamacchia: Where do I rank on the all-time list of awesome baseball names?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: The name just roles off your tongue

3:02	Dan Szymborski: like some delicious tuscan salami

3:02	Dan Szymborski: ROLLS

3:02	Sadwick: There’s always the chance that the O’s are accumulating international bonus money just to include it in a larger trade. That’s not very sensible, but it would be very Orioles.

3:02	Dan Szymborski: DON’T JINX IT

3:02	Your Bosses: Get out of this chat and back to work.

3:02	Dan Szymborski: Did something happen?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: Also, THIS IS MY JOB

3:03	Dan Szymborski: Oh, the other people

3:03	MIckey Callaway: I’m so impressed with that Aaron Boone guy across time. No lineup mishaps! Man, I wish I could be a less Metsian manager, but I am just so Metsy.

3:03	Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to say how much is management

3:03	Dan Szymborski: But Callaway’s performance has been rocky this season. He’s been giving some reasoning for moves that are just insane.

3:03	Dan Szymborski: It’s one thing if ownership is riding you hard about Jose Reyes

3:04	Dan Szymborski: But I doubt they said “make a completely inexplicable reason”

3:04	J: Surprised not to see a Jerry Dipoto trade in your earlier article. What gives? No faith in another Jerry trade?

3:04	Dan Szymborski: He does a lot of little trades.

3:04	zurzles: Do the O’s offer Jones a QO?

3:04	Dan Szymborski: They actually might

3:04	Ben: Get stuffed with your classical logic. I reject your P or not P axiom. https://ncatlab.org/nlab/show/intuitionistic+logic

3:04	John Sterling: Dan, how do you pronounce your surname? I was thinking of making a home run call for you: “Szymborski! The ball will soar-ski!” Eh? Eh?

3:04	Dan Szymborski: zim-BORE-skee

3:04	Dan Szymborski: which is actually wrong. I’m told the original Polish is absolutely horrific to say

3:05	Dan Szymborski: Besides, my nickname, since there are a billion Dans, has been Zim for like 35 years.

3:06	Dan Szymborski: I’m supposed to have my nickname be SHJIM now? I’m not living another 40 years as Shjim.

3:06	Dbo: Hey Dan, sorry I’m late. I was outside of Sunway protesting their evil structure neutral sandwich ways

3:06	Dan Szymborski: I like the typo.

3:06	Dan Szymborski: Protesting which stars can be classified as stars or not

3:06	Dan Szymborski: “Not enough mass to go supernova? NOT A STAR.”

3:07	Woad Raider: Who is the best last place team?

3:07	Dan Szymborski: Reds

3:07	Dee Fenz: How reliable are the various defensive stats these days? And can you recommend a decent guide to summarizing how and when to use the various metrics?

3:07	Dan Szymborski: They’re reliable OVER LONG PERIODS. The general rule thumb is to consider a chunk of defensive stats about the same as you would a third of offensive stats.

3:08	Dan Szymborski: So if you go nuts over a half-season of defensive stats, you better go nuts over a month of offense.

3:08	JayHoss: Archer to the Indians seems like the no-brainer

3:08	Dan Szymborski: Wuld be fun.

3:08	Mountie Votto: Encouraged by Luis Castillo’s recent run? He was a bit unlucky early on, but says he tweaked mechanics and looked filthy yesterday.

3:08	Dan Szymborski: He’s got the stuff to succeed. I’m really hlpeful

3:08	Dodgers Shirts: Should I apologize for wearing Strikeout Cancer Shirts? It may have offended a team striking out at the trade deadline 🙁

3:09	Dan Szymborski: There’s always something weird about those fundraisers where X amount of donation is given per strikeout.

3:10	Dan Szymborski: I mean, yeah, it’s a great cause, but I don’t like that feeling that Mike Leake is killing children, relative to Max Scherzer.

3:10	Dan Szymborski: How about, like $10,000 * (5 – FIP)

3:11	Dan Szymborski: Let Dallas Keuchel save lives too!

3:11	Moelicious: My son loves Cities Skylines!

3:11	LudeBurger: do you think players like Tony Womack or Manny Margot are even the type of players who would join your chat?

3:11	Dan Szymborski: Probably not.

3:11	Dan Szymborski: I said some mean things about Tony Womack’s abilities, so definitely not him.

3:11	Dbo: Do you think all these stories about players’ twitter accounts is encouraging lazy journalism? Instead of researching a story, any reporter can just find something controversial in a young players twitter feed and whistleblow to get attention on their reporting.

3:12	Dan Szymborski: I think it can be a bit lazy if it’s just a pile-on.

3:12	Dan Szymborski: Like Sheryl has a cool interview upcoming about it. That’s journalism.

3:12	Dan Szymborski: But on the flip side, on HaderNight, there were some fake tweets thrown in that sources that should have known better got fooled on and had to submit corrections

3:13	Dan Szymborski: My Door Dasher is leaving the restaurant with my tacos, so let’s burn through quick ones.

3:13	CamdenWarehouse: Are you going to take over Cameron’s former weekly appearance on FanGraphs Audio? We all want more Dan/Carson together.

3:13	Dan Szymborski: Haven’t spoken on schedule, but I’ll be on audio a lot

3:14	Allard: Do you think James shields will be traded

3:14	Dan Szymborski: Yes

3:14	CNK 80Q3: Hello dano,

3:14	Dan Szymborski: Hi

3:14	Japes: I take solace in the fact that, although you’rw not sharing any of my brilliant remarks you’re personally profiting from them inestimably.

3:14	Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I guess I could look at ZIPS, but do you think Walker Buehler or Luis Castillo has a brighter future?

3:14	Dan Szymborski: Buehler probably safer

3:14

Todd: Hi Dan! How often does the fWAR formula change? Are there particular types of events or trends that are more likely to bring about the need for tweaking? Related: is there literature that you would recommend to a person who is trying to get a better grasp of the inner workings of modern metrics?

3:14	Dan Szymborski: It’s quite stable

3:14	Chris: Are you they’re analytics people? How many team analysts are you in contact with?

3:14	Dan Szymborski: I actually talk with more non-analytics people!

3:14	Mike: Are Desmond and CarGo back? Do you believe their performances in the context of their environment?

3:14	Dan Szymborski: Last month is a bad projection system

3:15	Nick: Where is the snowflake emoji?

3:15	Dan Szymborski: Is there one?

3:15	LFC Mike: This is a 70 grade chat today. I guess starting at 1400 hrs vs 2:00 PM EST suits you Dan. Carson gets all the credit.

3:15	Dan Szymborski: I think this is about average for me.

3:15	Dan Szymborski: Not that great, not that bad.

3:15	Dan Szymborski: I’m just better than doing like work

3:15	Eminor3rd: Yeah I’m back into it now. Finally have a few mains I’m comfortable playing in competitive

3:15	Dan Szymborski: You have it on PC right?

3:15	Usagi YoSzymbo: Kindof disappointed that you broke kayfabe on your Cistulli feud last week. Hypothetically, do you think your cats could take him in a fight?

3:16	Dan Szymborski: My cats are fat and lazy

3:16	CamdenWarehouse: How much do you fight with Carson as he’s editing you?

3:16	Dan Szymborski: Not much. I dont’ relaly fight with editors. Editors are paid to write and if you trust the person, you should trust their judgment.

3:16	Dan Szymborski: An article isn’t just about me and what I want!

3:16	Dan Szymborski: Though Carson likes me not putting double-spaces after periods, w hich I’m having a hard time breaking.

3:17	Dan Szymborski: I actually write in note pad and do a find and replace of two space to one space

3:17	Brian CashGod: I just realized that the emojis are coming from the readers, and not you…

3:17	Alex: What are the key skills needed to be a successful baseball writer?

3:17	Dan Szymborski: Curiosity

3:17	Dan Szymborski: Niche

3:17	Dan Szymborski: Don’t take yourself too seriously

3:17	Dan Szymborski: Not that you want to be just niche, but you want to have something that you do well, something people don’t do or something you do better than most

3:18	Dan Szymborski: People have a lot of stuff to read, you have to give them a reason TO want to read you.

3:18	Dan Szymborski: I’m not to everybody’s taste. I realize that.

3:19	Dan Szymborski: But people will read me. Some even to hate-read me.

3:19	Dan Szymborski: OH GOD I’M THE SKIP BAYLESS OF ANALYTICS

3:19	Guess what?: I have a burning hatred for you.

3:19	Dan Szymborski: Many do!

3:19	Sadwick: Cheetah fingers has to be your new nickname

3:19	Dan Szymborski: Was thinking of Mac’s Cougar Hands thing on It’s Always Sunny

3:19	Dan: Chris Archer is not an ace!

3:19	Dan Szymborski: But he has the upside to be one.

3:19	Matt: Did you know that if you break the word “piano” into the mathematico-greek origins of the first half, and unaccented spanish origins of the second half, it translates to “the year of the ratio of a circle’s diameter to it’s circumference”?

3:19	Dan Szymborski: I did not.

3:19	Obi-Wan Kenobi: I felt a disturbance in the Force, as if suddenly dozens of interns cried out in terror as they were assigned to read every single tweet ever posted by every player on their teams’ 40 man rosters (plus top prospects!)

3:19	Symbooo Slice: Adam Jones is refusing to be traded, and there’s no way the Birds are going to re-sign him. And the team is terrible. This is not how I wanted my favorite Oriole ever to wrap up his playing career here…

3:20	Quinton McCracken: During a breakout season, will zips have a preference over someone who has a 15 game rolling average with little variability from the mean vs a player whose had some big games meaning high variability?

3:20	Dan Szymborski: No

3:20	Billy Beane: Dan, are you and Nate Silver friends? Or friendly enough to keep in contact?

3:20	Dan Szymborski: We’re acquainted.

3:20	Dan Szymborski: I don’t know him well enough to claim friend status, I don’t believe.

3:20	Brandon Nimmo: You used to talk politics in these chats before politics became POLITICS. I really enjoyed it.

3:21	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but see, in 2014, everyone only sort of hated each other, in 2018 everybody just hates each other.

3:21	Dan Szymborski: I’m concerned about stuff, but I’m happy I don’t let it become the overarching part of my life.

3:21	Dan Szymborski: But that’s not for everyone. Lots of people want to make a difference with their beliefs.

3:21	Dan Szymborski: And God bless and all, it’s just not for me.

3:22	Dan Szymborski: Maybe there’s some moral cowardice there, I don’t know.

3:23	Dan Szymborski: But I find life too short to chase waterfalls.

3:23	Dan Szymborski: OH GOD I MADE THAT REFERENCE

3:23	APODionysus: Wow somehow I typed Dave instead of Dan

3:23	Torchy the Taco: Bert Blyleven trying to pronounce Saltalamacchia was pure gold.

3:23	APODionysus: Eovaldi looked solid. Brian Johnson and Velasquez have both been decent. Why is Pomeranz still in the rotation Dave? WHY?

3:23	Dan Szymborski: I’m actually not sure.

3:23	Aaron Judge: My dealer just abandoned me, where else can I find some steroids?

3:24	Dan Szymborski: I don’t know. I dont’ even know where to get pot anymore.

3:24	Dan Szymborski: I certainly don’t know where to find stuff connected with EXERCISE

3:24	John: If you were a board game it would definitely be Scrabble

3:24	APODionysus: Protesting stars? Please. Did you hear about Pluto? That’s messed up /BurtonGuster

3:24	Dan Szymborski: FREE PLUTO THE PLANET

3:24	pine boi: briefs vs. boxers vs. boxer briefs?

3:24	Dan Szymborski: Boxers

3:24	PS: Some minor league teams do beer batters. They pick an opposing hitter, and if they strikeout, cheap beer that inning.

3:24	Dan Szymborski: I just want ten cent beer night to come back!

3:25	Dan Szymborski: There are 2430 games a year, we hae room for a handful of disasters

3:25	Guest: How weird is it that there was a game played in Baltimore during the riots??

3:25	Dan Szymborski: The weirder thing it was like this secret game that nobody knew about.

3:25	Dan Szymborski: It’s too bad I didn’t have my BBWAA card then, it would’ve been a hoot to watch an empty stadium game.

3:25	Von Hayes: Lazy journalism regarding tweets has been a going concern for some time now, not much to encourage at this point.

3:25	Justin: What do you think about the Barstool sports night thing?

3:26	Dan Szymborski: Eh, it’s not my cup of tea. I don’t care for Portnoy’s frathouse antics.

3:27	Dan Szymborski: But I also have colleagues that found their way to barstool, like Justin Havens, who did a great job at ESPN nad certainly isn’t a jerkass.

3:27	Dan Szymborski: And really, everybody in media has at one point or another worked for a large parent organization that has done some s hitty things.

3:28	Dan Szymborski: As long as t hey’re not bullying people at the park, I don’t care if people want to have their low-brow hangouts. It’s just not for me.

3:28	Dan Szymborski: I can’t get excited about mean words. Whatever happened to words will never hurt me?

3:28	Dan Szymborski: I get called fat or ugly or dumb a couple of dozen times a day in tweets, DMs, or emails. Who give a rat’s ass? I certainly don’t.

3:29	Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: This peanut thing where you can comment on comments is making my brain explode

3:29	CamdenWarehouse: You can be Skip Bayless, but not Murray Chass

3:29	LudeBurger: Nate Silver, who considers you his close friend, is sitting in this chat shocked that you don’t claim him to be your friend!

3:30	Dan Szymborski: I suspect Nate and I would get along very well hanging out. But I’ve only exchanged a number of emails from him. And to go YEAH, I’M TOTES TIGHT WITH NATE LOOK AT ME I KNOW A FAMOUS guy would be dishonest.

3:30	Dan Szymborski: You can ascribe plenty of negative things to me. Like most people, I’m a mix of bad and good. But I’m not dishonest.

3:30	mario mendoza: More like Cheeto Fingers, am i right??

3:30	Dan Szymborski: No, I hate those.

3:30	Perennial Ballboy Tryout: Dan, I feel as if your incoming tacos are your sole connection to the world outside of Hearthstone.

3:30	Dan Szymborski: But a good one!

3:30	GraphsFan: Dog, don’t those get all bunched up throughout the day?

3:31	Dan Szymborski: It’s not like I’m running around an office all day

3:31	Names Namerson: OK pretend I’m old and explain how these emojis are popping up all over the place.

3:31	Dan Szymborski: Magic!

3:31	CamdenWarehouse: You’re leading me to believe that the Carson hate was all an act…

3:31	Dan Szymborski: I’m sorry

3:31	Dexy’s Midnight Fowlers: What is your cup of tea? I’m going with Earl Grey

3:31	Dan Szymborski: DOUBLE BERGAMOT earl grey

3:31	Names Namerson: I had emojis under my post that I did not write.

3:31	mario mendoza: if you google Cheetos you can actually SMELL the results.

3:32	Dan Szymborski: Actually, Cool Ranch fingers would be closer

3:32	Dan Szymborski: But I very rarely eat junk food.

3:32	Dan Szymborski: My diet is actually surprisingly decent, which is kind of sad that I’m eating fairly well to maintain THIS physique

3:32	CamdenWarehouse: are you able to use the emojis too?

3:32	Dan Szymborski: Yup

3:33	Dan Szymborski: OK, Taco Man is on my street.

3:33	Dan Szymborski: (I assume his name is David)

3:33	Dan Szymborski: True story, when Door Dash started up here, there was a guy named Osama B.

3:33	Dan Szymborski: the second time I got him, he was going by Sami B

3:34	Dan Szymborski: I would HAVE THOUGHT HE MIGHT HAVE NOTICED THAT BEFORE 2017

3:34	Names Namerson: I am annoyed that nobody will explain this emoji thing. Now that everyone has laughed feel free to explain.

3:35	Dan Szymborski: We’ll have to explain next time!

3:35	Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone.

3:35	Dan Szymborski: As a reminder, you can find me HOLY CRAP at FanGraphs full-time now. DSzymborski on Twitter. And wherever people offer me sausage and beer.

BAL	CHW	ATH
BOS	CLE	HOU
NYY	DET	LAA
TBR	KCR	SEA
TOR	MIN	TEX

ATL	CHC	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
NYM	MIL	LAD
PHI	PIT	SDP
WSN	STL	SFG

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 7/30/18