Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/1/24

Dan Szymborski: And awaaaay we go!

Ryan: Do you think the Padres have a shot of running down the Dodgers? The offense is humming and that bullpen looks insanely filthy.

Dan Szymborski: A shot? Yes. But it’s an uphill fight. Dodgers are an excellent team. The Padres need to not just be really good, they have to have the Dodgers hit some of their swingy injury risk in their high-end talent

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Dodgers at like 77% this morning, and I think I’d take the over on what the true mystical probability is that we can’t actually tell

Sam: ZiPS seems to really like Danny Jansen to the Sox.  Is it because his swing is well suited to Fenway?  Similarly in the preseason ZiPS projections for 2024, Jansen’s full year projection is with the Red Sox now – is this projecting him playing half his games at Fenway?

Dan Szymborski: No, the site doesn’t reformulate the old projections

Kenshin Kawakami: Soler moved the ZIPS postseason needle more than I expected for the Braves. I know that’s largely due to the sub replacement level corner outfielders they’ve been running out, but is it wrong to be skeptical of Soler when he has to get back to playing outfield?

Dan Szymborski: You’re not wrong to be skeptical. But I *did* project Soler as a corner outfielder, which takes a hit

Dan Szymborski: There’s risk, but Atlanta’s outfield is TERRIBLE this year

Dan Szymborski: 0.7 combined WAR. And that’s with Acuña’s rather disappointing-for-him 1.1 WAR

Harry: There’s been a lot of discussion this year about the DH and 1B penalties, and it seems likely to be reevaluated at some type of Fangraphs summit this offseason. Do you have an opinion on the positional adjustments as they currently stand/do

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been one pushing for an adjustment for a couple years. But we’re talking a few runs here and there. It’ll only be a real difference over long careers

Dan Szymborski: DH is one I’ve been pushing for since before I even worked for FG!

Dan Szymborski: Like mgl, every way I look at DH vs. 1B, there’s a small penalty from sitting on your ass that every DH has to face

Dan Szymborski: it’s like a really mild version of the PH penalty

Dallas: I’m not sure if it’s fair to say the Pirates have soured on Henry Davis, however between Endy Rodriguez returning and Joey Bart’s emergence would it be fair to say they may trade him this offseason in a baseball trade?

Dan Szymborski: It *coudl* happen for sure, but there’s not a lot of trade value there. I think the Pirates are still figuring out how everything sorts out

Dan Szymborski: and I doubt the team is completely sold on Joey Bart turning his career 180 after…fewer than 180 PA

Crone Zone: If you had Michael King in fantasy, would you hold because he’s been awesome or try and sell for a comparable asset because he’s been awesome and the number of innings he’ll throw this year scares you?

Dan Szymborski: It ALWAYS depends on the trade

Dan Szymborski: Every player has a price you’d trad ethem at

John: As far as Red Sox prospects go, I think Kristian Campbell has take on the title of most polarizing now that Rafaela has graduated.  What does ZiPS think of this year in the minors this year?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes it very much! He’ll have a pretty beefy projection next year for sure

Harry: On their respective contracts, would you rather have Michael Harris II or Corbin Carroll?

Dan Szymborski: I think Carroll, but it’s really up for debate

Dan Szymborski: Carroll’s probable upside is arguably balanced by the extra 35 million or whatever

M’s Fan: Would the trade deadline have been more exciting without the 3rd wildcard?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

Dan Szymborski: Anyone fighting for a third wildcard is likely also fighting for a second wildcard

JamesStirling: Hi Dan, Will Feddie and Pham thrive in St Louis or just be average?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll be fine, but unexciting

Datt Mamon: What are the odds that Eloy stays healthy and figures it out with the Orioles?

Dan Szymborski: Pretty low, I think

Dan Szymborski: Think the O’s are just taking a scratch-and-win

Kip: Have you played Eldin Ring?

Dan Szymborski: I actually have not gotten around to Elden Ring

Dan Szymborski: one of the problems is there are so many things to play and I’m a 46-year-old man with a full-time job so I can’t play everythign I want

Ralph: Once he’s been able to reacclimate off the injury, should Dominguez be taking those Verdugo at bats?

Dan Szymborski: Ideally, I would

Dan Szymborski: Verdugo’s basically a stopgap starter. When you don’t have the gap to stop, he should be farther back in the fridge

Kip: Cleveland gives up real prospects for Lane Thomas and Atlanta gives up a non prospects and takes on some money for better production. /Jesse Pinkman he can’t keep getting away with it gif for Alex Anthopoulos/

JamesStirling: Hi Dan,

TooDamnTall: Where have you been!?! (When I miss chats, I still blame you)

Dan Szymborski: I was away, then I had a nasty head/chest cold, and a conflicting doctor’s appointment

Edward: Ben Rice NYY 1B of the future?

Dan Szymborski: Wouldn’t go THAT far

Champdo: Of the non Riley Greene Tiger position players who do you think will be the most productive next season? Keith? Perez, Meadows? Maybe Jung?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has it close between Keith/Jung, though I’ll leave it in the air whether it’s because ZiPS really likes Keith/Jung or it’s really unhappy about Tigers after Riley Greene

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has Greene more than two WAR ahead of next Tiger

Nervous Flyball Pitcher: Hey Dan, what does ZiPS project for replacing Jordan Westburg with Ramon Urias? What if they call up Coby Mayo at the end of August?

Dan Szymborski: Can’t do a full season sim quickly! It is a loss though, and it probably shaves a couple points off division chances and playoff prob

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS likes Mayo

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure the O’s would actually do it, but I’d say “fuck it” and just stick in Mayo as the starter

Dan Szymborski: The playoffs are just about guaranteed. Roll the dice on teh division because Urias is meh as a starter

Johnny: How much of a hit is being a Met on J Winker’s PT?

Do you think Kopech will get any saves in LA?

Do you think G Holmes is a worthwhile NL 5×5 add?

Dan Szymborski: Some, probably not, depends on the size of the league since you’ll only get ERA/WHIP from him and not many innings

Dan Szymborski: I mean, strikeouts too, but not big counting

James: Should the Astros have any sort of innings limit for Blanco, or just realize this is probably the best season he’ll have and milk it?

Dan Szymborski: Given his age and the closeness fo the race, I imagine the Astros will use him more like a veteran

Honkus Wagner: favorite song off Nevermind?

Dan Szymborski: Come As You Are

Drew: What’s something typically undervalued by most front offices that the great front offices value correctly? Based on recent drafts by the Dodgers (my personal gold standard) speed is becoming more emphasized.

Dan Szymborski: Honestly? Risk

Dan Szymborski: I think the best teams are the ones that have the best understanding of risk, both good and badf

Dan Szymborski: Look at the Dodgers and how they accumulate risky, interesting pitching. They’re comfortable just having a bunch of dudes who may be healthy, but who could have really high-end performance, and willing to accept there might be a time that they roll poorly and there are too many injuries, and they’ll have to deal with it

Bob: Any thoughts / projections on Joey Wiemer after trade to the Reds ? Outfield in dire need of upside. Thank you.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think he’s the droid you’re looking for

Insert Witty Name Here: Has anyone reviewed Dombrowski’s record of prospects he traded away?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe? It’s not 1997, so I’m not familiar with everything analytical that’s been written

Insert Witty Name Here: What’s it like being a childless cat dude?

Dan Szymborski: Full nights of sleep and I keep my income, but a higher risk of stepping in cold vomit at 3 AM

Chris Davis: What exactly was behind Chris Davis’s rapid decline?

Dan Szymborski: Awful, awful contact hitter and pitchers eventually figured out how to get around him swinging out of his shoes

Dan Szymborski: And trying to remedy it, he didn’t have good enough palte discipline, and he got REALLY awful at choosing to swing at the good pitches to hit

Alex Cobb Appreciator: How do I convince fellow Guardians fans that rest of season projections that have this team at .500 are reasonable based on a trash rotation and mid offense, and not the result of a anti-Cleveland cabal putting out biased projections?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS actually stil likes the Guardians!

Dan Szymborski: But if that doesn’t convince them, you probably can’t

Dan Szymborski: You’ll never convince a stubborn fan of anything with a computer projection

Refugee: Jud Fabian a ZiPS top 100 prospect??

Dan Szymborski: Certainly not now

Orange stripey cat: Is Tampa going to make Dylan Carlson into the All Star that John Mozeliak was publicly fantasizing about 3 years ago?

Dan Szymborski: They could? But probably not

Flangraphs: Looking for a good flan recipe

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really do desserts

Hon: Dan! What the heck are the Orioles doing? Eflin is a welcome addition, but their moves in the outfield are head scratching, and with Westburg on the shelf the Holliday promotion doesn’t feel as sexy as I hoped it would…

Dan Szymborski: Eflin was, again, a big eflin deal

SudsTerkel: This White Sox thing…there’s zero reason for hope as long as Jerry Reinsdorf owns the team, right?

Dan Szymborski: Probably no hope

Guest: is there a way to estimate a player’s 20th/80th pctl ZiPS based on their 50th?

Dan Szymborski: I mean, the average of the two won’t be FAR off, but when do you have 20th/80th and not the projection?

Thank you for the chat!: It seems a lot of teams are landing on similar team building strategies. Where would you look for a counter strategy to potentially stand out?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not actually sure you can do a counter strategy

Dan Szymborski: The problem is a great deal of what wins baseball games is “solved” especially offense

Dan Szymborski: What you have to do is take advantage of your specific situation as best you can

Dan Szymborski: like the Sox can’t make an elite offense in a different way than most elite offenses

Dan Szymborski: But they can take risks that the good teams can’t

Oaktown Blues: Is ZiPS buying the Lawrence Butler breakout? Are you?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is not. I’m still on the fence

The Oriole Bird: Per your article this morning–which was great, BTW–the O’s have the highest likelihood of winning the WS currently.  Did I read that right??

Dan Szymborski: Yes, ZiPS already like the Orioles quite a lot

Dan Szymborski: despite what Reddit thinks

Dan Szymborski: All the playoff matchups got better rotation-wise

Dan Szymborski: and this gives them a boost in division title chance, which is a HUGE deal

Guest: the Cubs have gotten smarter, Matt Shaw gets to “work on his defense” in AA instead of AAA to avoid service time accusations

Dan Szymborski: heh

MNLakes: In a case like the Twins lack of trades do you place more weight (blame) on ownership slashing payroll or the front office not pulling the trigger on making any impact trades?

Dan Szymborski: A lot of times its an ownership issue

Dan Szymborski: The Rockies would be a lot better with different ownership or a change in ownership involvement

Colton: Who do you think is going to be the biggest mover in ZiPS projections this offseason? Jarren Duran?

Dan Szymborski: Durran is up there

Dan Szymborski: I did two articles on it!

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-midseason-movers-and-shakers-hitters/…

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/zips-midseason-movers-and-shakers-pitchers…

mile low: if you were force ranking GMs is Billy Schmidt 31?

Dan Szymborski: It’s hard to rate GMs apart from the rest of the organization

Dan Szymborski: I’m quite confident that Rockies ownership had their hand in a lot of disasters for the team, such as the Desmond/Bryant signings and the quiet trade deadlines

Dan Szymborski: near 100% on Bryant

romorr: Did you see the Holliday grand slam live, Dan? I know you’re an Orioles fan, just curious if you got to enjoy it. With the struggles, that had to feel great for him.

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, I missed it live

Dan Szymborski: I mean, I had it on, but I was engrossed in my ZiPS wrapup article

Dan Szymborski: and I had the sound on something else

Dan Szymborski: Depending on the timing, I either had a recording of Bruckner’s 7th or Yanks-Phils

Steven: Does Witt need to best Judge in War by a fair amount to win MVP?

Dan Szymborski: I think it depends just where Judge’s numbers end up

Dan Szymborski: If he hits 60 again, hes’ going to be really hard to beat

Dan Szymborski: even with modern baseball writers generally being better at this

Dan Szymborski: Even in WAR it’s pretty close and Judge has an edge on parts of WAR that are more SOLID. We know offense quite well. But things like positional adjustment and even defensive performance are a bit more abstract.

Dan Szymborski: And I think it a close race, the tie goes to the solid

mile low: m toglia expected oba .348.  if zips more bullish on him these days?

Dan Szymborski: Mildly

James: Does 85 wins take the AL West? No one seems to want it.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has the average result of the eventual AL West winner as 86.7 wins

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Crochet killed his own trade market right? No team’s gonna trade for him without knowing what kind of extension it would take to get him to pitch in the postseason.

Dan Szymborski: It added a whole bunch of risk for a pitcher who already had some risk

The Oriole Bird: Westburg injury hurts.  You think Mayo is getting called up very soon?

Dan Szymborski: .I have no specific info on this

Rich: January 1, 2030. Where will the A’s be headquartered?

Dan Szymborski: Probably Vegas. In the end, cities usually cave and give teams whatever they want, sooner or later

Dan Szymborski: Thought it would be funny if they’re still playing in Sacramento

Dan Szymborski: I mean, not for A’s fans

Dan Szymborski: but Fisher would be unhappy, and that makes me happy

Rich: What are Vaughn/Torkelson worth going forward. Does the Rooker Reclamation present a path forward in salvaging their careers?

Dan Szymborski: Not much.

Dan Szymborski: And sure, there’s always a second or third chance, but even Rooker’s value dropped to just about nothing at one piont

John B: What do you make of Jordan Walker (likely 2023 rookie of the year !) not being able to put it together in AAA in 2024?  Is this common ?  Or doesn’t seem common

Dan Szymborski: It’s unusual, but not THAT uncommon

Key Flaw: As an O’s fan, I’ve always felt the dagger of the Glen Davis trade. Yeah, it was bad back then (especially since Randy Milligan was the superior player anyway), but who would have known that the players they traded away would be THAT good (heck, a straight up Harnish-Davis trade would have been a fleecing of the O’s, let alone Finley and Schilling). What does ZiPS think of the trade at the time?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t run it, but I’m certainly it would be pretty lousy

Dan Szymborski: I’ve looked at the players before and while ZiPS was lukewarm on Finley, it liked Harnisch and Schilling quite a bit

Cito Gaston’s mustache: I known it is small sample size, but are you worried at all that father time has finally caught up to Kershaw?

Dan Szymborski: Hasn’t it kinda already?

Dan Szymborski: Until you get near 40, pitchers break mor ethan they age

Dan Szymborski: and he’s kinda broken a lot

matt w: About Henry Davis (and maybe more generally applicable): should I be saying “He can’t possibly be as bad as he’s looked in the majors if he’s hitting this well in AAA” or should I be worried that the increasing gap between AAA and the majors means there will be more guys who mash in AAA and never figure it out in the majors? Or something else?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been tinkering with the data for Ben L. on the subject and I’m not actually finding an increasing gap. Some of it (though not in this case) appears to be people still haven’t absorbed how different the offensive environments are between AAA and MLB right now

Chris Getz: If Miguel Vargas turns into a 2 win player, does that mean the Fedde trade was solid?

Dan Szymborski: Maybe? On a win basis, probably, but the White Sox should be chasing ceilings, not dependable two-win guys

Re: Childless Cat Dude: Well as a catless child dude I can say you probably have less chance of being hit with warm vomit at 3 AM

CONCERNED PARENT: Dan I can’t remember if you were someone that ever tweeted about Magic The Gathering or not, if so have you been playing Bloomburrow? Best set in years.

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t really played Magic since the 90s

DJ Tofu: How often do 3 year projections of ZiPS get refreshed?

Dan Szymborski: The ones on FG, just at the start of the season. I’ve been considering rerolling them at the ASB next year

Guest: the 20/80 based on 50, not 50 based on 20/80, Dan ; )

Dan Szymborski: Oh geez

Dan Szymborski: yeah, I don’t think you can get 20/80 from 50

Dan Szymborski: I must have read the question wrong

Insert Witty Name Here: Do you think the MLBPA should push in the next CBA not a cap floor or ceiling, but a minimum standard of player facilities? Reading stories about how the A’s and Pirates etc skimp on stuff like training rooms and nutrition and all that, perhaps that might be a good win to get.

Dan Szymborski: It would be nice, but they tend to focus on the most bang for the buck in terms of time

Dan Szymborski: I honestly don’t think the MLBPA is in a great bargaining position

Dan Szymborski: One of the things that has always helped the MLBPA historically is owners being vain and undisciplined

Dan Szymborski: But the owners have a built-in advantage: many of them can wait it out a *lot* longer than a 23-year-old prospect

Dmx: No pitch clock in the 9th inning- what say you?

Dan Szymborski: Nah

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like rules that change

Vegeta: Heard Thunder Kiss ‘65 for the first time this week changed my world. Any unheard song similarly change your world?

Dan Szymborski: Honestly, not that I can think of

Guest: How often do you watch games?

Dan Szymborski: Any time there’s a game on, there’s a game on

Wireless Joe Jackson: Any chance we can get an update on the odds of the White Sox breaking the loss record?

Dan Szymborski: I actually posted it last night on Twitter!

Dan Szymborski: or this morning

Dan Szymborski: hmm

Dan Szymborski: hang on

Dan Szymborski: https://twitter.com/DSzymborski/status/1818953594676138416

AL Melee: What’s more surprising? The AL Central being more competitive than expected or the AL West being worse than expected?

Dan Szymborski: AL West probably

Junkballer: If you were to answer honestly, do we feel like any projection systems really can give an accurate view on what to expect out of Aaron Judge over the next 5 years? It just feels like there are so few 6’7, 295 pound humans out there, much less elite baseball players who put up career years at 32 when most others are declining. You could tell me he could turn into an injured pumpkin next year or could be doing this 5 years from now and both seem likely.

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure Judge is *particularly* difficult to project outside of health

Dan Szymborski: we’ll see in 2029! lol

Junkballer: It would be fun to run an analysis on historical ZIPs verdicts on some of the most perceived (at the time) lopsided trades and see which ones netted out lopsided in the long run

Dan Szymborski: I do individual trades once in a while. I think I did something on ESPN some years ago that was a ridiculous amount of hours for a single piece

Dan Szymborski: I did do the worst trades of teh free agency era in 2012, but it wasn’t a ZiPS thing

Dan Szymborski: https://www.espn.com/mlb/insider/story/_/id/7853665/for-los-angeles-an…

zips fiend: Is the NPB still significantly better than the KBO, and are both better than AAA/AA?

Dan Szymborski: I still get NPB as AAA1/2 and KBO as AA1/2

Natitude Adjuster: Have you ever messed around with including college stats into ZiPS?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but there’s such wide variance that I only include college stats when I MUST project a player and I have nothing else to go on

Dan Szymborski: Basically, ZiPS will use college translations, where available, any time there is little to no professional experience

Dan Szymborski: but I won’t quote it unless I HAVE to

Dan Szymborski: Like I couldn’t get away with not projecting Crews

Dan Szymborski: as an official projection

Alex: If Zips became sentient, would it look fondly on you for creating it or would it turn against you for making it work so hard?

Dan Szymborski: Most of my loved ones also harbor a tendency of being constantly annoyed by me, so I think it woudl have mixed feelings too

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time fo rme to head out for another week

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all!