Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/10/23

Dan Szymborski: It’s a chat!

Jose Abreu: My back hurts, should I be afraid on Jon Singleton taking over?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not in serious jeopardy. ZiPS projections for Singleton aren’t great, either

the guy who asks the lunch question: what’s for lunch?

Dan Szymborski: some unsalted peanuts I happen to have here

seth: that lorenzen high school no hitters stat is pretty bonkers, huh?

Dan Szymborski: For those not aware of the factoid, Fullerton Union high school in California has had four pitchers throw no-hitters in the majors

Joe: Why is John Angelos? Like, why is he?

Dan Szymborski: Well, sometime in fall of 1966, a daddy Angelos and a mommy Angelos…

Ryan: If Ohtani had theoretically been traded to a NL team at the deadline, how much consideration would he still have received for AL MVP?

Dan Szymborski: I think he would have gotten a ton

Dan Szymborski: and was likely still the favorite given his edge

Dan Szymborski: After all, Sutcliffe won an NL Cy Young despite 15 starts in the AL

Dan Szymborski: and I bet current writers would be even less absurdly technical about it

Kyle B: As a Yankees fan….Can fangraphs give me any hope for 2024 lol I don’t know how anything can really change right now

Dan Szymborski: Put it this way: absolutely nothing has gone right and they’re still on a pace to win 83 games

j: Hi Dan,  I am curious as to whether or not Michael Busch’s recent hot stretch in aaa has been enough to move the needle on his zips projections.  I find it interesting that zips seems to (at least according top the version posted daily) prefer the bat of Jonny DeLuca for the rest of the season.

Dan Szymborski: FanGraphs doesn’t have a mechanism for minor league translations, so I’d be sus on players like Busch

Dan Szymborski: From the 7/15 batch run

Dan Szymborski:

Darb: Favorite non-FanGraphs baseball podcast?

Dan Szymborski: The Greatest Generation

Justin: Any thoughts on why the Mets aren’t calling up Ronny Mauricio?

Dan Szymborski: I think it came from wanting to give Baty first dibs while they worked on Mauricio in third and left

Dan Szymborski: which is obviously not as much an issue now

Walton Dilcox: To be a great, long lasting player in this league….how important is it to play defense and hit hard flyballs? More than ever?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly important! Though most players if they’re good enough at something else can compensate for not being good at something important

Tacoby Bellsbury: Is Jose Ramirez KOing Tim Anderson baseball’s Buster Douglas moment?

Dan Szymborski: Tim Anderson’s form was really disappointing

Dan Szymborski: He ought to have had a reach advantage over Ramirez which he didn’t use at all

Dan Szymborski: and that was a sad implementation of a peek-a-boo defense!

Dan Szymborski: and that stance…

D: What does ZIPS think of Cedanne Rafaela? He’s hit really well in AAA this year–has that moved the needle on his future? And what does it think of his OF defense, if anything?

Dan Szymborski: It’s certainly a risk. last batch run had him at .256/.290/.413 for 2024

Dan Szymborski: Because of the crappiness of the minor league data, ZiPS is only calling him a +4 defender in CF right now

Walton Dilcox: McClanahan may be in line for a second TJ. I hear on the heckscape that is the internet this surgery is so safe and players should just “get it out of the way.” Are sports fans just losing their minds?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s a “coming to terms” mechanism

Andruw Monasterio: Am I a long-term piece of the Brewers infield now?

Dan Szymborski: Whiel I wouldn’t go that far, there’s a lot more reason to like Monasterio than a year ago. And the Brewers certainly will ride him as long as the good times last

Darb: I was going to ask which deadline buyer is going to have the most remorse, but it’s the Angels, isn’t it?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah

Dan Szymborski: Giolito was a good pickup — that doesn’t appear to be working out

Dan Szymborski: But the rest was lackluster

Dan Szymborski: I mean Cron? He hasn’t been good in two years

Dan Szymborski: Anyone really think Grichuk was going to keep it up?

Hopeless Drury Fan: Thanks for the chat today Dan!
For the past 3 years (nearly 1,000 PA), Brandon Drury has posted a xwOBA 30+ points lower than his wOBA. Is this luck or a skill that’s not captured well by xwOBA in your humble opinion?

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t worked with the predictive value of xwOBA since I do my own thing, but three years suggest some sort of skill

Dan Szymborski: For example, ZiPS automatically takes zBABIP far less seriously with Paul Goldschmidt

Dan Szymborski: zStats have done better with Drury

Dan Szymborski:

Aiden: What is the process for becoming a FanGraphs contributor?

Dan Szymborski: It varies

Dan Szymborski: Every few years, we do have an open hiring process, which is the best bet for most

Dan Szymborski: And for the others, fill a specific need

Dan Szymborski: like when Kevin Goldstein left the Astros

tz: Would it be possible to do a ZiPS projection on Ozzie Albies, but only using his stats hitting right-handed?

Dan Szymborski: *probably* but I’m not really set up for it

fanoftheman: in the history of zips, what single change to your methodology made the biggest difference in improving the accuracy of the projections?

Dan Szymborski: Revamping minor league translations in the late 00s

Dan Szymborski: The first couple years I used James’ MLE process

Dan Szymborski: but it was really out of date

Dan Szymborski: and I had a *lot* more data to work with than he did in 1984

fanoftheman: I know the Cardinals defense is bad, but what the heck is up with the babip they’re allowing? If the season ended today, they’d have the second worst non-Coors BABIP allowed since 2000. Some of that has to be bad luck, right?

Dan Szymborski: *Some* but there’s a lot more Jordan Walker and a lot less Harrison Bader this year compared to last!@

James: Given Dana Brown’s recent comments, what are the expectations for a Tucker extension? Would 9/250 be competitive?

Dan Szymborski: I still have ZiPS open

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS suggests 9/220

Dan Szymborski: but I don’t know if he would sign that

Dan Szymborski: and guess he wouldn’t

Dan Szymborski: What’s working against him is that he’s a non-transcendent corner outfielder who is not hitting the market super yougn

Ethan: first, I wanted to cast a vote for ‘z’ stat leaderboards/more frequent updates. I find them very interesting to look at.
second, I was wondering if the batted ball data (specifically fly balls) is park adjusted in any capacity? Could environment help explain some of the zHR under and overachievers?

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, I calculate zStats home and away and have park factors the same as regular players

Jose’s Right Hook: Have you run ZiPS career projections for players that couldn’t exist, just to see what they would look like? Talking about progressions for someone who hits .500, a batter who never strikes out, ect.

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never really made up players in this way, though I guess I could

The Dorothy Zbornaks: Are we still doing a fantasy football league this year?

Dan Szymborski: Hey SJ, yeah, I’ll set it up this weekend

DD: Working on an article for my website:

Do you think that the banning of the shift has improved some players defensive metrics this season? (looking at Baez, Witt Jr., and Franco)…enough causation/correlation?

Dan Szymborski: It’s *possible* but I haven’t looked directly at it and I don’t like to wild-guess

Colton: Do you have any advice for someone that is contemplating beginning a baseball writing blog of their own?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t write about numbers. Write stories that utilize numbers.

Dan Szymborski: Which I know is funny since my pieces this week are literally writing *about* numbers

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t do that many of those

James: Is staff ace JP France a legit middle rotation guy?

Dan Szymborski: I t hink he *can* be but I’m not quite there yet as he’s got a really small margin of error for what he’s done

Darb: Favorite non-FanGraphs baseball podcast?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t really listen to many baseball podcasts because I already have a huge baseball overload

Dan Szymborski: I mostly listen to podcasts that involve humor, cars, or video game nerdery

Springer: finally homered last night for the first time in a month but it left the bat at 96 mph. worried about aging here yet?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been

Royals fan: KC lost a run because a ball got stuck in a lightbulb in Fenway, then lost the game by one run. I think I’m done with 2023. (This is not a question.)

Dan Szymborski: Look, even the baseballs don’t want to be at a Royals game

captainjameshook: I know Greinke’s on the IL now but, assuming he comes back, and with nothing else to play for this year, shouldn’t the Royals let him play all 9 positions in a game and let him go for his quest for 10 career HRs and SBs? Is there a petition we can start?

Dan Szymborski: That would be fun

AL Lifer: Now that we have the universal DH, how long before postseason awards are combined between the two leagues?

Dan Szymborski: I think that’s unlikely for now

Appa Yip Yip: Have you played Baldur’s Gate 3 yet?

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Does Chewbacca use TP?: What do ZIPS think about Yoan Mondada? Is there any hope for a 2024 rebound, or is he in DFA territory…has one year left at a pretty sizable number…

Dan Szymborski: Last check he’s at .243/.324/.400, 1.7 WAR in 111 projected games in 2024

Appa Yip Yip: In honour of José Bautista going on the Blue Jays level of excellence this Saturday I would like to reiterate my belief that his bat flip in 2015 was a watershed moment for the sport in regards to players celebrating and having fun. Joey’s bat flew so Soto could shuffle.

John Mozeliak: will you do a john angelos vs kevin brown wwe match?

Dan Szymborski: The problem is that MLB the Show dominates a lot of game playing this time of the year

Dan Szymborski: if I make a wrestling matchup, it’ll be Anderson and Ramirez

Key Flaw: 5 man rotations are there to protect pitcher’s arms, but with the amount of throwing in between is it really different than a 4 man rotation? Is there data about the effects of 4 vs 5 man rotations? Or is it just “it could be really bad and we don’t want to risk destroying arms to test it out”?

Dan Szymborski: The thing is that the data suck

Dan Szymborski: And it’s one of those things that teams don’t want to test because you don’t really have a scenario when you can test without costing careers and your team hundreds of millions of dollars

TomBruno23: On this, the day after Michael Lorenzen’s no-hitter and as a reminder to Mike Warren, let’s remember that Bud Smith, with a career record of 7-8, tossed a 134 pitch no hitter at San Diego on September 3, 2001.

fantasy football: can I join? ; p

Dan Szymborski: This is the old Baseball Primer Fantasy Football League. We’ve been going on since 2001.

CM: If you are the Orioles this offseason, do you trade one or more of Hays, Mountcastle, or Santander to make room for Kjerstad and possibly Mayo?  Of the three, who is the one that you think the Orioles should most keep?

Dan Szymborski: I’d prefer to hang onto Hays than the other two, but who I would keep would come down to who is being traded

Appa Yip Yip: Rather than make players up it might be fun to run ZiPS projections for players in old NES baseball games. How would Sleve McDichel fare in today’s high velo environment?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve actually made a ZiPS Playoff Edition hack of RBI Baseball before. Lemme see if I can find it

Dan Szymborski: http://bit.ly/ZiPS12RBIRom

Dan Szymborski: https://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/oracle/discussion/2012_zips_rbi_b…

Dan Szymborski:

Alex Remington: I’d like to ask you the same question I asked Ben Clemens about Bryce Elder:

Despite everything – his Tiffany-blue baseball savant page, his having given up seven runs in three of his last five starts, and on the other hand also All-Star selection – based on his first 22 major league starts, Bryce Elder *seems* like he’ll settle in as a pretty good 4/5 starter, somewhere in between Jon Niese and Dillon Gee. Is that fair?

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s possible he does even better than that

Dan Szymborski: In the 7/15 batch run of ZiPS, Elder was up to 23rd in five-year WAR

Ren Kosenthal: Gun to your head who wins NL CY?

Dan Szymborski: Gallen

Key Flaw: Going to the real University of Maryland, we always said UMBC stood for “U made a bad choice”. You went to Loyola, right? Did you have things like that for UMBC or other colleges?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t actually recall anything like that

Dan Szymborski: I was pretty busy with alcohol and getting stoned

Key Flaw: Have you tried Old World? It is supposed to be like CivIV (the best Civ) but modernized.

Dan Szymborski: I have seen it but I have not played it

Kyle: ZiPS has underestimated how good the Orioles would be the last two years by quite a lot. My question is: why do you have such a bias against Baltimore and where do you think it came from? There can be no other explanation, especially random variance.

Dan Szymborski: lol

Dan Szymborski: Unfortunately, ZiPS doesn’t have any easy to find systemic bias

Dan Szymborski: which is too bad, because I’d love some low-hanging fruit to get a boost in accuracy

John Mozeliak: speaking of mlb the show, have you gone thru the negro leagues storylines?  edutainment!

Dan Szymborski: I have, it was a lot of fun!

Ethan: How much stock do you/zips put in minor league defense when projecting MLB WAR? I know you’ve mentioned a having a totalzone-esque stat for minors but do you regress it a lot?

Dan Szymborski: Oh yeah, it’s regresse da ton

Dan Szymborski: I completed the NL storyline pretty quickly

Dan Szymborski: and I have all the Programs done except for the July Awards which just dropped an the Extreme program, which is absolutely cruel

Dan Szymborski: I’m at 58% in Extreme. I still have two XP awards to get another 15% (5,000 and 10,000 with Marte, Piazza, Wagner, Cain)

Dan Szymborski: And then another 10% in the two remaining stat quests (I’ve done Marte and Wagner, but just unlocked Piazza and at 1 HR of 15 and I don’t have Cain yet)

Dan Szymborski: Which’ll put me at 83% and the rest I’m going to have to grind out over time because there are no more Extreme Moments that I can do, and I’m touching the Conquest or Showdown

Eric: Dan, would love to be an 2024+ updated version of the Top Projection Projections Table from your 2020 Trout article: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/mike-trouts-inevitable-decline/

Dan Szymborski: I could do that

Appa Yip Yip: Is Davis Schneider the opening day 2b for the Jays next season? Sample size be damned he’s 5’9 and hit a ball clear out of Fenway.

Dan Szymborski: He’s certainly making his case

Exit Hits: Jose Altuve has outperformed his xwoba in almost every year since the release of the stat. Is there some property that allows hitters to maintain above expected numbers or is it dumb luck?

Dan Szymborski: There are properties that could cause a player to do that

Dan Szymborski: xwOBA isn’t designed to be overly complex really

Dan Szymborski: I guess I should pull up zStat again? I don’t have these all memorized

Dan Szymborski: OK, just checked everything

Dan Szymborski: zStats has underrated ALtuve too. 295/359/473 vs. 308/373/500. ZiPS naturally believes his line a bit more than for the average player

Guest: If the Padres make the playoffs, does Ha-Seong Kim get any MVP votes?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

v2micca: If the Pirates are aggressive with Paul Skenes and he gets a taste of the Majors in 2024, is zips bullish or bearish on his 2024 numbers?

Dan Szymborski: Don’t have ’em yet!

Darb: Is Hader going to get $120 million?

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to say no

v2micca: Considering the fact that banning the shift seems to have accomplished the goals of the commissioner’s office, do you think even more restrictive defensive positioning rules could be a possibility?

Dan Szymborski: Probably not

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Fangraphs projections still see the Rays as favorites to win the AL east. A certain left handed starting pitcher disagrees. What does ZIPs think?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has the O’s the favorite

Dan Szymborski: It’s regularly been 3-4 games higher on O’s than FG projections since the start of the year

MilwaukeeBeerJays: Feels good seeing the Yankees and Red Sox at the bottom of the AL east. A plague on both your houses!

Michael Freaking Lorenzen: Have I improved my outlook enough this year to warrant a sizeable multi-year FA contract? Or will I be back in the 1 year/5-10mil range come this offseason?  Topline (and no-no) look great, but peripherals only slightly better than 2022.

Dan Szymborski: Lorenzen ought to get a decent deal, but nobody’s going crazy

TomBruno23: So…Jordan Walker…what kind of wRC+ does he have to put up in order to compensate for all of the other baseball things that he does not do so well?

Dan Szymborski: Depends where they play him

Dan Szymborski: The defense is a real drag

Dan Szymborski: If he’s playing a corner, he may need a 125 wRC+ to be a league-average player or so

Key Flaw: Kevin Brown is the first Orioles announcer that I liked as much as Jon Miller. Is that irony or appropriate given what has happened?

Dan Szymborski: heh

TomBruno23: Along with that Greinke note, really hoping the Cardinals let Wainwright hit on October 1 in his last MLB game.

Ballywoop: Jays or Mariners down the stretch

Dan Szymborski: Jays

J: Does ZiPS believe in Owen Caissie? Feels like a prime ZiPS top 100 candidate where his performance for his age is insane but scouts are less keen.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS is not keen on Caissie yet

Dan Szymborski: It does not like his 2022

Dan Szymborski: and southern league is high offense and smokies stadium is a very good HR park

Guest: It really looks like the Astros need to find a way to get Diaz’s bat in the lineup more. If you were given the ability to set the Astros lineup every day, which of these players would see the most reduction in starts to get Diaz more PT: Maldonaldo, Abreu, Dubon, or Meyers? If Dusty does play Diaz more, I suspect the PT will come from Meyers.

Dan Szymborski: Maldonado

Dan Szymborski: I know pitchers love him

Dan Szymborski: but there are limits here

Re: Strategy Games: have you played XCOM? if so, which is your favorite version. I got XCOM 2 recently since the bundle was 90% off on steam

Dan Szymborski: Just the original, which was as lot of fun at the time!

Dan Szymborski: Microprose was one of the few companies that’s always an automatic buy from me no matter what

Dan Szymborski: And I got to see their offices a few times! They were in the same building as my mom’s office was in the 90s

Dan Szymborski: Falcom is another company from which I’ll reflexively buy games

Wireless Joe Jackson: Bobby Witt is up to 4 WAR and a 110 wRC+ and still underperforming his xwOBA by 35 points.  Which if any under-25 shortstops would you still prefer to him?

Dan Szymborski: Wander/McLain

Dan Szymborski: that’s it

Guest: I’m so disappointed that Kevin Brown isn’t that Kevin Brown.

Dan Szymborski: If he was that Kevin Brown, you’d see a lot less media stick up for him, sadly

Bravesfan: How for real is Orlando Arcia? Can he maintain a BABIP of over 330?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think my opinions have much changed since I wrote this

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/vaughn-grissom-gets-a-cameo-as-orlando-arc…

G: What do the Braves do with Vaughn Grissom. .Another year in AAA seems like a waste

Dan Szymborski: I think he’s traded

Jon: Why does the pitcher point up on a fly ball? That doesn’t help anyone.

Dan Szymborski: It’s always worth testing to see if reality has been altered and finger guns are now real guns

JC: You’re not the prospect guy, but… Coming up, Arraez had miniscule K rates but had a 60 FV hit tool. Was the concern quality of contact or proximity to the majors?

Dan Szymborski: Basically, nobody liked him much outside hit tool

Dan Szymborski: He was actually 8th in rest-of-career WAR for 2B in 2019 ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: Though some others definitely didn’t work out

Dan Szymborski: Luis Urias was 2, Hampson was 7!

Zach: How freaking good is Jackson Holliday going to be once he completely fills out his body?

Dan Szymborski: Damn

TomBruno23: If it was that Kevin Brown you would also see him stick up for himself and tell John Angelos to stick it up himself.

MilwaukeeBeerJays: My lady buddy has recently been invited by a dude to play board games. It’s not the guy I’m concerned about. What do I do if she starts bringing home board games? Is divorce too extreme?

Dan Szymborski: Play them?

Domingo: It’s not “if I’m the Pirates”, it’s “if I WERE there pirates”.

TomBruno23: Today in Immaculate Grid I remembered Jeff Manto. I have to believe you have fond memories of his 0.7 bWAR season for the 1995 Orioles.

Dan Szymborski: Jeff Manto’s bat was well-liked (his defense less so)

Dan Szymborski: Lemme pull up his minor league translations real quick before I go

Rick: Looking for a new video game. I’m not too much of video game guy. One every couple or few years. I’ve enjoyed RDR2 and Witcher 3 in the past. Thinking that Diablo one, maybe. Any suggestions? PS4

Dan Szymborski: Diablo 4 is fun!

Dan Szymborski: Though I find myself running through the Falcom Trails games again since the English translation of Reverie came out and I’m a Falcom obsessee

Appa Yip Yip: If she brings home Catan you gotta run. Everything else you should play.

lyhe: been loving your zStats Validation articles! how hard do you think regression will affect HSKim’s batting? He’s my favourite player to watch this season

Dan Szymborski: he’s probably not THIS good, but I don’t think it’s crazy to think he’d be a 110-120 guy regularly

Dan Szymborski: and I have to admit for personal interest, I’m not unhappy that he’s broken out because I got a lot of shit for the 2021 projection that didn’t work out

Vector: Have you played Gloomhaven? Been playing a campaign with two friends on PC and it’s a blast.

Dan Szymborski: I have not

Board Game Engine: What’s your go to online board game engine? Tabletop Simulator? Board Game Arena? A different one? hard to play board games when you live nowhere near your friends who play

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have one because I don’t have the right blend of friends. THey mostly did not play board games

Dan Szymborski: and it’s difficult for a 45-year-old man to find new board game buddies

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: (Manto

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to hit the dusty ol’ trail

Dan Szymborski: thanks for coming everyone! Until next time!