Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat - 8/16/17

2:16	Dan Szymborski: LET THE RECORD SHOW I TRIED TO BE HERE ON TIME!

2:17	Dan Szymborski: Oh god, there’s no queue!

2:18	Dan Szymborski: I’LL GET YOU FOR THIS CARSON

2:18	The Average Sports Fan: Are the Cubs a good team?

2:18	Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:18	Dan Szymborski: Oh, try to ask quick questions, I have an appointment so I still can’t stay past 3

2:18	My name is Judge…: based on camerons chat it looks like you will now be dealing with nola trade rumors for the next year

2:19	Dan Szymborski: S’ok.

2:19	RotoLando: Dan, I got eclipse fever, and you’re the only one who knows the cure! What is it?

2:19	Dan Szymborski: BLOW UP THE MOON

2:19	Dan Szymborski:

2:19	My name is Judge…: are the white sox a bad team?

2:19	Dan Szymborski: Yes

2:19	Joe Schlmo: Who wins the second WC in the AL?

2:19	Dan Szymborski: The Altoona Mountain Citys

2:19	RotoLando: Tim Beckham is making Dan Duquette look good. How long until that wears off?

2:20	Dan Szymborski: A few weeks. The trade itself was fine.

2:20	The Average Sports Fan: If the Cubs are a good team, why do they refuse to play like one?

2:20	Dan Szymborski: Humility?

2:20	Zock Jr.: Dan, is Mookie hurt or something? He’s better than a .265 hitter

2:20	Dan Szymborski: He’ll be fine.

2:20	Gub Gub: I’m thinking about putting off crawling into my attic until the eclipse gets here. Seems like it would be worth it for the 30 degree drop in temperature.

2:21	Coner: You got to think Estrada would’ve been able to net the Jays something, right??

2:21	Dan Szymborski: Not that much.

2:21	Dan Szymborski: He’s a risk.

2:21	Dan Szymborski: And playoff-contending teams tend to be risk-averse for good reason.

2:21	Dan Szymborski: And it’s not like a possible upside woul dhelp a rebuilding team since he’s gone in 6 weeks

2:21	Harold: Who ends up with better numbers ROS, Yoan Moncada or Howie Kendrick (given all his playing time on an injury plagued roster)?

2:21	Dan Szymborski: Moncada

2:21	Dave: Is Luis Castillo an ace, mid rotation starter, back end starter or just getting lucky and will soon be back in AAA?

2:22	Dan Szymborski: Mid-rotation now, but big upside.

2:22	Ronald Acuna: Am I baseball’s #1 prospect now? What’s my ceiling really like?

2:22	Dan Szymborski: Big ceiling, but I can’t call you #1

2:23	Dan Szymborski: I agree with Longenhagen (I think). As lists go, this is Walker Buehler’s Day On.

2:23	Dan Szymborski: And I’d still put Gleyber ahead for sure, probably Eloy

2:23	Murse Wigwam: I’ll be honest, I kind of forgot about Dan Chat, so I don’t have any baseball questions ready. So, I guess this will have to be Eclipse Chat with Dan “The Moon” Szymborski: If I start practicing looking at the sun right now, do you think I’ll be in mid-season form by August 21?

2:24	Dan Szymborski: NO YOU’LL BE BLINDED BY THE LIGHT AND CUT LOOSE LIKE A DOUCHE

2:24	TJ: Does Stanton have a shot at MVP if he keeps hitting homers?

2:24	Dan Szymborski: I believe so.

2:24	Dan Szymborski: Will of course, depend on the mix of voters.

2:24	Dan Szymborski: (I’m NL Cy Young this year, so not me)

2:25	Da Bum: When does Bregman story drop?

2:25	Dan Szymborski: Wait, what happen?

2:25	Alec Asher Wojciechowski: Chances a team that sold at the deadline makes the playoffs?

2:25	Dan Szymborski: Very low. The Twins weren’t really sellers, they sold a guy they had just bought.

2:26	Dan Szymborski: Detroit and Oakland only real AL sellers and they’re not making the playoffs

2:26	Dan Szymborski: And no obvious NL candidates

2:27	My name is Judge…: nice job twitter threading yesterday about sbnation. i love it when you join josh nelson on the southside podcast

2:27	Dan Szymborski: We always have fun

2:28	Murse Wigwam: Have The Rays played themselves out of contention, maybe not mathematically, but in a “these guys look like Gregor Clegane’s sweaty underwear” sense of the word?

2:28	Dan Szymborski: The offense has been horrifiterribad.

2:28	Dan Szymborski: Oh wait, Texas counts for the selling question

2:29	Dan Szymborski: What are they ate? 5% or so?

2:29	Dan Szymborski: But on the Rays here’s the thing. After the four good AL teams, every team sucks to some degree.

2:29	Dan Szymborski: (in the AL)

2:29	El Fuego: With prospect lists being updated now, which org has the best minor league system?

2:29	Dan Szymborski: White Sox

2:29	spookie: Thought experiment: Keep seeing writers say “For anyone as big as Judge…[blank] is going to be especially difficult.” If we were scaling the game to be more Aaron Judge friendly, what would be the correct adjustment? Greater distance from mound to home? Bigger baseballs?

2:30	Dan Szymborski: Bigger baseballs he might kill someone

2:30	Oddball Herrera: Are we close to setting some sort of record for WAR lost to injuries, with so many premier players out for long stretches (Trout, Kershaw, Harper, Correa, Price, Strasburg, Turner, etc)

2:30	Dan Szymborski: Would be interesting but I don’t know

2:30	Da Bum: If Stanton gets 62 its an historic season as its the most HRs not aided by anabolic steroids.

2:30	Dan Szymborski: And?

2:31	Dan Szymborski: Now, let’s say I pretend to care.

2:32	Dan Szymborski: Even if we ssay Bonds and McGwire are disqualified on the assumption of steroids, the case for Sosa is essentially an unnamed source reporting on ao result two years later and a lot of yelling OMG STERIODS SOSA

2:32	CamdenWarehouse: https://xkcd.com/1876/

2:32	Da Bum: Last week Eno said you guys had Bregman analysis story dropping this week.

2:33	Dan Szymborski: I keep telling you guys that I don’t know FanGraphs related news!

2:33	Lee: Does Harper’s latest injury affect his future contract?

2:33	Dan Szymborski: As of now, it’s fart-in-a-tornado level

2:33	Drew: Can you explain Nate McClouth’s 2008?

2:34	Dan Szymborski: It’s the season that McLouth participated in that was between January 1st and December 31st, 2008, under the Gregorian calendar.

2:35	Dave: What should the reds do with their Suarez/Senzel problem? Move Suarez to short? Move Senzel to 2nd?

2:35	Dan Szymborski: I think they’re still seeing how it sorts out. Peraza’s abilities and Herrera’s shoulder are still very big obstacles

2:35	Jim: You think Buehler is in the discussion for top overall prospect? When will the Dodgers catch a break?

2:36	Dan Szymborski: I know, poor guys!

2:36	CamdenWarehouse: What are your thoughts on Carson’s fatherhood?

2:36	CamdenWarehouse: or is that too mean?

2:36	Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe in holding offspring responsible for the sins of the father!

2:36	Da Bum: Does Jeter sell Stanton or do you think he concentrate on compiling big star power a la his Yankee teams?

2:37	Dan Szymborski: Think they’ll still have to move stanton

2:37	Al Mal: Alonso has been awful for a while, what gives?

2:37	Dan Szymborski: Guys have bad months, even afte rthey break out. It’s not something I’m terribly worreid about yet. He was never really going to be a 160 OPS+ guy consistently

2:37	The Dude: What reasons are out there to bring up Acuna to the pros right now? He’s not on the 40 and could be a business argument to keep him down for control.

2:38	Dan Szymborski: Atlanta’s attempts to spin the fanbase into the idea they’re closer to competing than they are

2:39	El Fuego: Worst first MLB pitch experience in history – Thyago Vieira?

2:39	Dan Szymborski: Carly Rae Jepsen.

2:39	Dan Szymborski:

2:39	ECinDC: Outside of Kershaw, who is most likely to make the HOF as a pitcher right now?

2:40	Babe Lincoln: Can we place ban use of the article “an” before historic by all non-Brits? Where we actually pronounce our h’s,” it’s “a historic.” People getting it wrong are failing at pretending to be fancy. Help me, Szym. You’re our only hope.

2:41	Dan Szymborski: My h in historic is very weak

2:41	Dan Szymborski: Oops, didn’t answer last question

2:41	Dan Szymborski: Verlander or Greinke

2:41	ECinDC: Does Zips have a HOF projector? If not, that would be a cool feature and I would like to read things based on it.

2:41	Dan Szymborski: Not in ZiPS, but I do have one.

2:41	ECinDC: What would it take for you to sell Zips to a team?

2:41	Dan Szymborski: More than it would be worth to the buyer.

2:41	Corky McCork: Good point, there is no clear evidence that Sosa was willing to cheat

2:42	Dan Szymborski: So, shall we assume every corked bat user after 1960 was a steroid user?

2:42	Nelson Cruz: Can I be like David Ortiz and keep going for another couple of years?

2:42	Dan Szymborski: Sure

2:42	My name is Judge…: does the prospect of 3/4 teams tied for the second wild card spot in the al excite you?

2:42	Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but better that we get like 7 or anything. Let the chaos reign.

2:42	Ol’ Sea Capn: You still playing Overwatch? What’s your opinion on some of the recent updates, changes and maps?

2:42	Dan Szymborski: Yup, though I’ve been very busy the last few weeks with the trade deadline and sister’s wedding

2:43	A: Rhys Hoskins is running a .071 BABIP and 4.4% SwStr so far. Don’t you love small sample sizes?

2:43	Dan Szymborski: They the beast

2:43	RotoLando: Did you ever watch The Vacant Lot? They did the “ripped up like a douche” sketch, and the five-dollar eclipse glasses sketches.

2:43	Dan Szymborski: I have not.

2:43	ECinDC: How much do you weigh innings pitched v. dominance per inning when voting in the CY?

2:43	Dan Szymborski: I don’t plan on going in with set X vs. Y formulae

2:45	976: What stops Jordan Luplow from fooling ZiPS into thinking he’s one of the best prospects in baseball when most scouts project 4th OF type? His wRC+ at all levels is impressive.

2:45	Dan Szymborski: He’s gotten a pretty good boost this year.

2:45	Dan Szymborski: Though it hasn’t gone crayz

2:46	Mike: Has didi reached the point where you have him as a top 5 ss with his very good defense and mix of solid power and hit tool? if not where would you rank him?

2:46	Dan Szymborski: He’s probably somewhere around 5th-8th or so. It’s a brutal fight.

2:46	Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Hey look, Dan’s alive. We can now cancel the search party we planned on planning of.

2:46	Dan Szymborski: Guys, I’ve still bee on twitter

2:46	Daniel: How do you rank the following sandwich chains? 1) Subway 2) Jimmy Johns 3) Quiznos 4) Firehouse Subs 5) Jersey Mike’s 6) Potbellys

2:47	Dan Szymborski: Only one I go to is Jimmy John’s and that’s only because it’s next door to the place Ig et a haircut

2:47	Dan Szymborski: SUPPORT INDIE SUB SHOPS

2:47	Jose: If you were the Red Sox, would you focus on resigning Mookie while letting Xander and JBJ leave in FA? For a long time in Boston there was a question of how they’d hold on to all three, but that answer seems pretty clear: Mookie is the only one worth building around. Disagree?

2:48	Dan Szymborski: It depends on the contracts that you can fetch them for. You can’t just pull a trigger and sign X player

2:48	Slamboni: Did the Rangers goof by trading Darvish? Their offense is finally coming around and they look one Yu Darvish short of making a real run at one WC spot

2:48	Dan Szymborski: No.

2:48	Dan Szymborski: 9 teams going for 2 playoff spots is very different than 4 or 5 teams.

2:49	Dan Szymborski: And there was no division chance attached.

2:50	Dan Szymborski: At the time of the trade, I got a 4 percentage point delta for playoff probs in Texas as a result of the Darvish trade.

2:50	Dan Szymborski: Give me a real prospect or two and I’ll take that over keeping a player that doesn’ tmake a different 24 times out of 25 in getting to be a mediocre team that gets a coin flip playoff game.

2:51	Arron: What do you think of Amed Rosario? Can he be a Lindor kind of player?

2:52	Dan Szymborski: Love him. Yes, though I don’t think he’ll hit for as much power as Lindor has ended up hitting

2:52	Guest: thoughts on the new Hearthstone expansion, Knights of the Frozen Throne?

2:52	Dan Szymborski: I’m enjoying it. Lots of decks crap on aggro. Wish Skulking Geist had been a five-mana card

2:52	Ryan: Do you think the Astros are going to talk themselves into Verlander?

2:52	Dan Szymborski: No

2:52	The Ghost of Joe Crede: Do the White Sox still have the best system once Moncada and Lopez “graduate”?

2:52	Dan Szymborski: I believe so, but close

2:54	CamdenWarehouse: Cano is 5 home runs away from second all time by a second baseman. Just thought people should know.

2:54	Dan Szymborski: Wait, what?

2:54	Dan Szymborski: Kent’s at like 350 as a 2B

2:55	Dan Szymborski: Cano’s not even at 300 quite yet and there ought to be a few DH ones

2:55	Dan Szymborski: Oh, SECOND

2:55	Dan Szymborski: Sorry, I’m derpy.

2:55	Dan Szymborski: My eyes glazed over thefirst second

2:55	Gub Gub: I am rotund. I feel like this trend will continue for the forseeable future

2:55	Mikael: Is Michael Conforto more of a 3WAR/season guy or are you buying that he’s a star?

2:55	Dan Szymborski: I think he’s a borderline star at least.

2:55	Lake Jamb: Let’s say a team was dead set on acquiring G Stanton, would they have to agree to take on all the salary or provide multiple useful prospects or both for the Marlins to say yes?

2:56	Dan Szymborski: If anyone was dead set on agreeing to take on all the salary, someone would have claimed him

2:56	Coner: Justin Smoak: sustainable?

2:56	Dan Szymborski: There will be some regression, though he’s had the 3rd-largest ZiPS OPS boost.

2:56	Mike: What is wrong with Chapman? When does Betances/Robertson take over as closer?

2:56	Dan Szymborski: That swinging strike rate is way down, he’s just not fooling guys like he used to

2:56	John: The AL Wild Card would be more exciting if more teams in the race were actually good. Is the postseason race too diluted or is this year just a wacky outlier?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: It’s very hard to have 9 teams in a wild card race and have the teams actually be good.

2:57	Dan Szymborski: You’d need like 3 teams that are worse than the 1962 Mets or something

2:57	CamdenWarehouse: Will you use pitcher hitting in your Cy Young vote?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: No, but I would when evaluaitng them for an MVP vote.

2:57	El Fuego: Bets on which location the A’s finally choose for their stadium?

2:57	Dan Szymborski: California

2:58	Babe Lincoln: Has Trout beaten his ZiPS projection every year so far?

2:58	Dan Szymborski: I’ll have to check, but I believe he’s been short two (and three this year for obvious reasons)

2:58	Da Bum: Since you said Marlins likely still move Stanton, what do you think is a realistic package? Top 100 and few low end, high upside guys?

2:58	Dan Szymborski: Depends how much they eat.

2:59	Dan Szymborski: With a new ownership group coming in, I can’t hzaard a guess

2:59	976: Similar to the Luplow question, is Wilmer Font going to be a frontline starter next year or does his age hurt him too much? If you’re the Dodgers, who do you call up first Font or Buehler?

2:59	Dan Szymborski: I like Font, but frontline starter is a little aggressive. I don’t think the Dodgers are going to push Buehler this year to MLB

2:59	CamdenWarehouse: if you’re not chatting with us, how can we tell it’s really you on twitter?

2:59	Dan Szymborski: Really, who’s weird enough to emulate me well?

2:59	Rick: What’s up with Sean Manaea?

3:00	Dan Szymborski: I’m not answering any Manaea questions until someone answers to my satisfaction why he used to becalled Seth a lot and then it suddenly stopped

3:00	Rob: Should the White Sox shop Rodon at some point or, should the be part of the rebuild?

3:00	Dan Szymborski: I think they can go either way. Always shop though.

3:01	976: How has Eric Thames confirmed or denied your KBO assumptions?

3:01	Dan Szymborski: He’s bested his projections, though something like 70% of it is walk rate.

3:01	Dan Szymborski: In himself, it’s not enough to confirm or deny.

3:02	Sammy: Is Dom Smith gonna be good?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: I’m cautiously optimistic. His Las Vegas performance wasn’t really that good for the league, but he looked like the real deal in Binghamton

3:02	Dan Szymborski: Guy who keeps asking, I have a Judge/Bellinger piece in the works at some point, so I’m not ranking their careers.

3:02	Wesley: Mets have 80 mil coming off the books and really aren’t going to be paying anyone besides Ces. Can you see them going after any big names? Maybe darvish?

3:02	Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll awkwardly pretend to go after the top of the market and just get some second-tier guys maybe

3:02	Murse Wigwam: That reminds me, I need a haircut. And a sandwich.

3:02	John D: Will the Orioles make a move that does not scream typical “Orioles” this offseason?

3:03	Dan Szymborski: No

3:03	Batman: Valve announced Artifact. Any interest? We might finally get a card game that isn’t designed around gambling mechanics and buying packs, and instead just use those same mechanics for optional cosmetics!

3:03	Dan Szymborski: I’m always interested in card games!

3:03	CamdenWarehouse: I decided not to quibble about DH HRs

3:03	Ambrose Beers: Hornsby has 301, not sure which were hit as something other than a 2B.

3:04	Dan Szymborski: He had like a quarter of his PT at other positions, so if the breakdown is available, I think he’d be short of cano

3:04	Babe Lincoln: If the Marlins kick in $30m (leaving $26.5m/year), should the Mets take him and run? $70m coming off the books this year, and window is really the next 3-4 seasons with deGrom, Thor, Matz

3:04	Dan Szymborski: They probably should but we’re talking about a team that really wanted to save money on two months of Jay Bruce.

3:04	LegallyEagle: Who is your favorite right now for NL Cy Young, if you don’t mind sharing?

3:05	Dan Szymborski: Won’t share my opinion. Will only share my opinion of who will win, which would be Scherzer I think. Though Kershaw if he returns really quickly

3:05	Ryan: If MLB shrunk the league to 16 teams, what would be the impact on the game?

3:05	Dan Szymborski: Fewer games.

3:06	Ambrose Beers: Was Quintana worth what it cost to get him?

3:06	Dan Szymborski: I believe for the Cubs, he was.

3:06	My name is Judge…: re: manaea same reason carlos changed his name to yolmer.

3:06	Dan Szymborski: But it was used interchangeably, not exclusively

3:07	mario mendoza: Why don’t Rockies put McMahon in OF like Phillies did with Rhys?

3:07	Dan Szymborski: The team’s not that creative.

3:07

Tim Tebow’s Thunder Thighs: You are now Derek Jeter, you’ve taken over the Marlins’ baseball operations, and your first task is to make a horribly bold move to show the fans your ownership group is different. Which poison do you pick?

A) Guarantee the rest of Stanton’s contract, nulling and voiding the opt-out clause for 2020
B) Trade for Pujols with zero salary relief from the Angels
C) Sign Darvish for 8/$260M

3:07	Dan Szymborski: A would probably be best.

3:07	Mike: Why is CHance Adams not up??

3:07	Dan Szymborski: Yankees are a bit risk-averse.

3:08	Dan Szymborski: BTW, Adams is in my most-improved projections for pitchers piece tomorrow!

3:08	Dan Szymborski: And on that note, it’s time for me to shuffle off.

3:08	Dan Szymborski: Thanks for joining me everyone! As a reminder, you can find my work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and DSzymborski on Twitter.

BAL	CHW	LAA
BOS	CLE	OAK
NYY	DET	SEA
TBR	KCR	TEX
TOR	MIN	HOU

ATL	CHC*	ARI
MIA	CIN	COL
WSN	MIL	LAD
NYM*	PIT	SDP*
PHI	STL	SFG

Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/16/17