Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 8/23/17 by Carson Cistulli August 23, 2017 2:02 Dan Szymborski: OK, let’s start chat, gotta make do after the CISTULLOTAGE 2:02 Brad: How are you doing in your fantasy leagues this year? 2:02 Dan Szymborski: Generally top third or so but no firsts. I don’t play in a ton of league sthough. 2:02 Greatest Goat Sports: Do you think the Dbacks have a legitimate shot at retaining JD Martinez? 2:02 Dan Szymborski: Yes 2:03 Murse Wigwam: Oh my Zod, you’re Dan Szymborski! 2:03 Dan Szymborski: KNEEL BEFORE ZOD 2:03 Dude, where’s my car?: Why didn’t Ben Zobrist just take a cab to the game? 2:03 Dan Szymborski: CAB MONEY DOESNT GROWN ON TREES 2:03 Rick: Thinking about developing my own projection system. Tried out a barebones Marcel’s type last year but with different weights over 4 seasons of various stats. What’s the next step? 2:04 Dan Szymborski: Lots and lots of research as to what things are predictive and how. 2:05 Gub Gub: Rizzo at 2B, Donaldson at SS….there’s going to be a lot of power at MI next year 2:05 Jack: Breakout player you don’t buy in? Breakout player you do? 2:05 Dan Szymborski: Depending on pos eligibility in your league of course! 2:06 Dan Szymborski: Do buy: Alonso (even with slump), Schoop 2:07 Dan Szymborski: Not a believer: Santana and Avi 2:07 hscer: how did you do during the apoclipse? 2:07 Dan Szymborski: I STILL SEE 2:08 Gub Gub: What did you think of the last Game of Thrones episode? 2:09 Dan Szymborski: The whole Let’s Kidnap a Wight storyline had holes you can charge a Dothraki horde through. 2:10 Dan Szymborski: And the timeline is worse than Terminator fanfiction 2:10 Dan Szymborski: Sometimes Westeros is the size of Jupiter. Sometimes, Delaware. 2:11 Tyler Anderson: Am I coming back to the Rox in September, and if so, will they regret it? 2:11 Dan Szymborski: I think he is, but I think they’ll ease him back into innings 2:11 bleepbloop: Is statcast now in future plans to be included into ZiPS? 2:11 Dan Szymborski: TBD 2:11 Dan Szymborski: Working with the data, but I’m still working on the predictive value and still pondering how available the data will remain 2:11 Umberto: Have you ever looked into how scout tools translate to stats? 2:11 Dan Szymborski: Not really 2:12 Brad: Would you opt out if you were justin upton? 2:13 Dan Szymborski: I personally would not, last winter and then the mediocre returns in trades should make it clear how out-of-love teams are with corner outfielders righ tnow 2:13 RotoLando: Predictions for Mayweather-McGregor fight? 2:13 Dan Szymborski: Mayweather destroys McGregor and the fight sucks 2:13 Dan Szymborski: 2:14 Dan Szymborski: Also, I took an abundance of caution in my eclipse preparation. 2:14 Dan Szymborski: 2:15 Dan Szymborski: I’ve had a photoshoppy week. 2:15 Dan Szymborski: 2:15 Jim: I know there is only so many stories, but it almost feels like the Dodgers are not being talked about enough? They have a real shot of being the greatest team of all time. 2:15 Dan Szymborski: Aren’t they? 2:15 Jacoby: General approach in drafting for fantasy? 2:15 Dan Szymborski: Flexibility, value 2:15 Dan Szymborski: Go in with a rigid plan, you’ll break, like Stannis 2:15 Dan Szymborski : What would my wOBA be if I were to sign a free agent deal? 2:15 Dan Szymborski: Pitcherish? 2:15 Tom A.: Why don’t teams pass guys through waivers early in the season at the first sign of injury? That way, they’d have the option to deal them in August. Obviously would work best with pitchers making a little bit of money. 2:16 Dan Szymborski: Different waiver period 2:17 Dan Szymborski: 2/16 to 30th day of the season. Then the next day until July 31st. Then 8/1 until FA opens. And the last one until mid-Feb 2:17 Dan Szymborski: The Feb 16 is camps open. 2:18 Bart: So Bellinger has seen his strikeout rate get lower as season wears on. How much of it is real growth and how much is sss. Given his uppercut swing, should one still think he’s more of a 25% K rate guy going forward or 20%? 2:18 Dan Szymborski: He’s done some work, but I do expect him to always be a fairly high strikeout guy 2:18 Homer: Should we start looking at Bellinger being Kris Bryant like as opposed to Chris/Khris Davis? 2:18 Dan Szymborski: You should’ve already 2:19 Dan Szymborski: He turned 22 a month ago 2:19 Dan Szymborski: Khrush is a power-heavy guy smack dab in his later prime. 2:19 Gary Sanchez in August: Maybe Logan Morrison should shut up 2:19 Dan Szymborski: Evergreen. 2:19 Andrew: Is there anyway to do a 5-year ZiPS projection from some point in the past? Specifically, what did Adrian Beltre’s look like after he left Seattle back in 2009? He has to have blown it out of the water, right? 2:19 Dan Szymborski: Yes, I frequently do. 2:20 Ryan: How good do you think Rhys Hoskins could be in your opinion? 2:20 Dan Szymborski: I think at his peak, he’ll be somewhere in the 6th-10th best 1B in MLB range 2:21 Dan Szymborski: They’re not similar players, but value-wise, I think he’ll be Napolish 2:21 Tom A.: MLB improves pace of play by fining pitchers/teams based upon average pace over many pitches. Changes behaviors and avoids issues of small blip arguments against pitch clock. Why haven’t “average pace” solutions been discussed – only pitch clock? 2:22 Dan Szymborski: Because that’s an awkward solution too? 2:22 Dan Szymborski: Something has to be enforceable at the time or it doens’t work 2:22 Dan Szymborski: If teams paid, say, a set fine at the end of year for spitball/foreign object pitcher penalties compared to average, you’d see a lot more of them 2:22 Hannah Hochevar: How much has zips changed on Buxton and how much do you think it should change? 2:23 Dan Szymborski: Come down on the offense, but up on his defense as he keeps pushing th at threshold higher 2:23 bleepbloop: RE: statcast, you think there’s a good chance the granular data gets privatized and we just get things like xwOBA from baseball savant? That would be sad 2:23 Dan Szymborski: Data eventually gets out, but I don’t know the pathway 2:23 Blue Heaven: You think the Dodgers try to sign Yu in the offseason? 2:23 Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll try, but I don’t think they’ll bid to the moon 2:25 Colton: Does Clayton Blackburn finally pitch in the big leagues? If so does he have enough to stick? 2:25 Dan Szymborski: I’m meh on him, honestly. 2:25 Attila the Hunplugged: Is Acuna a historically good prospect at this point? 2:26 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what historically good means in this context — he’s not the best prospect ever or anything — but he’s having a damn fine season as in top 5 2:26 Kyoshi: Dan, is it possible to get yesterday’s projections. 2:26 Dan Szymborski: ? 2:26 The Chad was great: Is Chad Bettis a lock for comeback player of the year, or will it go to the undead Ryan Zimmerman? 2:26 Dan Szymborski: If Bettis continues to pitch decently, I think he gets it 2:27 bleepbloop: What’s your take on Josh Bell? His profile makes me think of Rhys Hoskins with a worse start in MLB 2:27 Dan Szymborski: I’m more optimistic than I was before – his lack of power in the minors was always frustrating, a little like Yonder ALonso as a prospect. 2:29 Dan Szymborski: Before the seaosn, I might have said Loneyish as a hitter, but nmore Derrek Lee now 2:29 Dan Szymborski: He’s not Derrek Lee defnesiverly though 2:30 Dan Szymborski: But at least the Pirates aren’t pretending he’s a centerfielder or anything 2:30 Kyoshi: Dan, is it possible to view the Sabre projections from previous days? 2:30 Dan Szymborski: Oh, you mean the SaberSim stuff? 2:30 Dan Szymborski: You gotta ask a FG guy. 2:31 Dan Szymborski: As I tell you guys in at least one answer every week, I’m exactly the wrong person to ask about FanGraphs behind-the-scene stuff. I have nothing to do with it. 2:31 Attila the Hunplugged: Is this season on Mookie’s lower end of outcomes or more in the middle? 2:32 Dan Szymborski: I owuldn’t say a guy having a 5-6 WAR season is on the lower end of his outcomes. 2:32 Dan Szymborski: Defense, let’s say he’s at his 70th-80th percentile. Offense, 30th? 2:33 976: Is Tanaka just average now, or worse? 2:33 Dan Szymborski: He’s been much better lately, there’s a lot of him getting beat up early still in that ERA 2:33 Dan Szymborski: Though I don’t think he’s really an ace anymore or anything 2:33 Attila the Hunplugged: What’s fueling Jay Bruce’s resurgence? 2:33 Dan Szymborski: Sometimes players play well 2:33 Gub Gub: What would it take for you to admit that The Moon has gone too far this time? 2:34 Dan Szymborski: The sun’s going to burn off our oceans and kill off all life on our planet eventually. I’m not losing sleep over the moon butting in front of the sun in space line once in a very long while 2:34 Joe: Will Daenerys know that Jon Snow is her nephew before or after they shag?? 2:34 Dan Szymborski: No, because GoT gonna GoT 2:35 Kvn: Why is a HBP worth more than a BB in wOBA? 2:35 Dan Szymborski: LIkely HBP happen in a slightly better situation for the hitting team than a BB does. 2:36 Dan Szymborski: There are fewer intentional unintentional HBPs than walks. 2:37 Dan Szymborski: SOME walks are going to be in situations where the pitcher is slghtly less afraid, compared to normal, of walks. 2:37 Dan Szymborski: But HBP are less intentional, if that makes sense. 2:37 Dan Szymborski: Regression tells us the waht more than the why 2:37 Dan Szymborski: or what if I could spell 2:37 Olive: You got any recipes? 2:37 Dan Szymborski: Yes 2:37 Dan Szymborski: 2:37 976: Napolish? Neapolitan. The best ice cream flavor. 2:37 Dan Szymborski: I’m not super into ice cream 2:38 Tony: Feelings on Chris Davis? Next year? 2:38 Dan Szymborski: Meh 2:38 Shohei Otani : Will I fit best as a hitter or pitcher in Major League Baseball? Or both? 2:38 Dan Szymborski: I’d love to see both, but I’m not sure if he’ll end up with a creative team 2:39 976: Is Yu (Are Yu?) the best pitcher on the market this off-season? And is he worth bidding to the moon? 2:39 Dan Szymborski: Depends where the moon is orbited. I dont’ like workikng in absolutes. 2:39 Dan Szymborski: I like Yu better than Arrieta. Then it’s a big drop to third 2:40 Dan Szymborski: Lynn? Vargas? Unless I’m forgetting someone 2:40 Dan Szymborski: I dont’ think the Giants officially picked up MadBum’s option yet, but yeah, he’s not going to be a FA 2:40 Dunt: Despite the long balls, I thought Giolito’s debut with the Sox went pretty well. He was getting good movement/plane on his fastball and didn’t walk anybody. Do you think he can be a #2 by 2019 if he can figure out his offspeed command? 2:40 Dan Szymborski: I remain optimistic 2:40 Kevin: Manny Machado is once again a baseball demi-god. Angelos can’t be foolish enough to give Davis a boatload of money, then go cheap on Manny, could he? 2:40 Dan Szymborski: Angelos isn’t bound by your artificial boundaries on foolishness! 2:40 Dan B: Do you think the Yankees hold on for a wild card 2:40 Dan Szymborski: Yes 2:41 hscer: I can’t decide if “apoclipse” or “apoceclipse” is better 2:41 Dan B: Is Aaron Judge another Shane Spencer / Shelley Duncan? Great success for 2-3 months and now pitchers have figured him out? 2:41 Dan Szymborski: No 2:41 Saltie : When you take into account all of 2016 plus what we’ve seen in the second half of 2017, does Sanchez have a better career than Judge? 2:41 Dan Szymborski: I like Sanchez’s career WAR to finish higher than Judge 2:42 Robert: What do you make of the Yankees’ lack of concern for Severino’s workload? Or do you expect a shutdown at some point? 2:42 Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s crazy high or anything. Yankees aren’t shutting him down in a wild card scrum in whhich they need him 2:43 Joe: I know they hype around Ronald Acuna are almost to the moon right now. What is a realistic expectation for Ronald Acuna? 2:44 Dan Szymborski: He *coudl* be Vlad, but I don’t think anyone should be unduly uspet if he’s merely, say, Curtis Granderson or Ray Lankford or something 2:44 LegallyEagle: Why do people peg Verlander’s contract as (so) bad? Darvish probably gets paid similar this off season and I’d take Veralnder > Darvish tbh 2:44 Dan Szymborski: I don’t believe people are pegging the contract as so bad, but pegging it as so bad if you have to give up top prospects to acquire it. 2:45 Dan Szymborski: $23,000 is not unreasonable for a Honda Accord. But if I have to give up a kidney to the dealer for the ability to pay $23,000 for a Honda Accord, yeah, no. 2:45 Los: I love Ichiro and think he is a no doubt HoFer. Hypothetical question, if 2001 was actually his age 21 season and this was his 17 year career, would you view him as a HoFer? 2:45 Dan Szymborski: Yes 2:45 Travis: Acuna has almost twice the wRC+ that Bryce Harper had as a 19 year old in AAA. Does this mean Acuna will have twice the career? 2:45 Dan Szymborski: Don’t make me start punching 2:45 Miggy C.: Am I toast, or do I have a few more Papi-like seasons in me yet? 2:46 Dan Szymborski: I think Cabrera bounces back to a degree, but not up to the level it would need ot make the contract not terrible 2:46 Travis: I’m so sad Freeman broke his wrist. He could be putting up some unbelievably good numbers right now but his power has been totally sapped. 2:46 Dan Szymborski: He’ll be fine in the long run. 2:46 Travis: Would Daenaerys care? It’s kind of a family tradition. Jon’s the one that might be grossed out. 2:46 Dan Szymborski: But those tend to be kinda same generation at least? 2:47 Dan Szymborski: Cersei and Jaime is kinda gross, but Cersei and Tywin or Cersei and Kevan feels grosser 2:47 Dan Szymborski: I know we’re kinda splitting heres on incestual grossness magnitude, but whatever 2:47 spookie: for ’18 Judge, should we expect ~ ’17 Sano with a few extra homers mixed in? 2:48 Dan Szymborski: Not a terrible comp and he has more defensive value than Sano 2:48 EbenezerBatflip: How long does Rusney have to hit .300+ in AAA before he is ever given another chance? Not just by Red Sox, but by any team/GM in MLB? If he were younger people would be hyping a guy hitting .314 with 15 HRs and above average defense, but he’s 30 and from Cuba, so people are already forgetting about him… 2:48 Dan Szymborski: Honestly, I’m surprised he’s not in another organization right now. 2:48 976: Okay, then who are the creative teams? 2:49 Dan Szymborski: I think teams like the Rays, Astros, Dodgers, Cubs, etc, might be more willing to use him two way 2:49 Dan Szymborski: But teams like the Mets or Rockies or Reds or Orioles? Not seeing it 2:49 Morris Buttermaker: You seem to be pretty fatalistic. Accurate? 2:50 Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t say fatalistic 2:50 Dan Szymborski: I’m more of a skeptic and a determined devil’s advocate than someone who believe in deteriminism 2:50 Murse Wigwam: Can you type a few answers in a Scottish accent? 2:50 Dan Szymborski: How do you know that all these aren’t in a Scots accent? 2:51 Carson Cistulli: Hello 2:51 Dan Szymborski: 2:51 Billy Beane: Danforth, have you any thoughts on Matt Chapman? From the looks of it ZiPS has him as almost a 5 win over the course of a full season. 2:51 Billy Beane: Matt Chapman’s 3B defense is deeply erotic. 2:52 Dan Szymborski: If he’s going to be a +20 3B, that would be very possible 2:52 Dan Szymborski: I’m not quite THERE yet. 2:52 bleepbloop: Lance Lynn is having a pretty darn good season coming off of TJS. As I understand, TJS takes 2 years to get back to 100%, do you expect him to be better in 2018? 2:52 Dan Szymborski: Yes 2:53 Gub Gub: What’s the last good book you read for fun, not as an assignment? 2:53 Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure it’s FUN 2:54 Dan Szymborski: but I read the Manvell/Fraenkel Göring bio yesterday and thought it was well done. 2:54 Dancat Fancy: CAT UPDATE, PLEASE! 2:54 Dan Szymborski: Galileo was here a minute ago because he’s getting hungry but I was ignoring him so he left. 2:55 Dan Szymborski: Pandora is sleeping in the sun on top of a couch cushion in teh living room 2:55 Dan Szymborski: And last I see Mercutio, he was hiding under a bed in one of the upstairs bedrooms because he heard the garbage truck 2:55 EbenezerBatflip: If Pedroia breaks 55 career WAR, is he a HoFer? Or another question, what do you think he needs to do to be a HoFer? 2:55 Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be worthy of being a HoF. Whether he is dpeends on the voters doing a better job 2:55 Pei: Someone should just put a note on the chat page about not asking FG related administrative questions so that you don’t have to answer every week 2:56 Dan Szymborski: Whenever I answer one, that usually stops them for the rest of that week’s chat 2:56 Steve Herbman: Would it be better if all amateur players–both US and International–were simply signed as free agents, and teams simply had slots of various dollar values to sign any amateur players each year, rather than the current system? 2:56 Dan Szymborski: Not sure if it’s better — I have personal issues on systems that transfer money from Latino amateurs to MLB owners — but I think ti’s headed that way 2:56 Randy: Is Joc done in LA? He hasn’t been that good def in CF and offense hasn’t been good, can he still turn it around? 2:56 Dan Szymborski: I think he can turn it around 2:56 Babe Lincoln: Ideally, what do Mets do in terms of FO/coaching staff changes this offseason? 2:56 Dan Szymborski: Clean house, Wilpons sell. 2:57 Dan Szymborski: There’s no layer of that organization I have any faith in 2:58 Attila the Hunplugged: Which young, non-Trout, non-Harper player excites you most for the next three years? 2:58 Dan Szymborski: Michael Kopech. 2:58 Dan Szymborski: Not because he’s on that level, of course. 2:58 Dan Szymborski: But if he hits it big, I think he hits it insanely big, and I’m very excited to see if it happens or not 2:58 Travis: I feel like brother and sister is slightly grosser than aunt and nephew, especially when the aunt and nephew are basically the same age. At least there’s some different blood in the latter. As far as Kevan, I think age would be the ick factor there. 2:58 #TeamName: Do the Cubs give Arrieta a QO this off-season, and does he accept? 2:58 Dan Szymborski: Yes, no 2:58 Billy Beane: The Red Sox can’t eat any of Rusney’s money this year or put him on the 25 man or he’ll hurt them on the luxury tax. I believe they can this winter, though. 2:58 Travis: Brandon Phillips is nine hits short of 2000. Will he be joining Kakes in the HOF. 2:59 CamdenWarehouse: you didn’t use enough “fucks” for scottish 2:59 Dan Szymborski: Trying to behave for the Daves. 2:59 CamdenWarehouse: 2:59 Mokolo: Do you fist bump people? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: No 2:59 RotoLando: Do we really need a Joker origin movie? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: No, but it’s more interesting ahtan a rebgoot 2:59 hscer: what do you do on a group message thread when you make a joke based on someone else’s typo and nobody gets it? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: Awkard silence. 2:59 Sonny: Mike Napoli seems to be the go to comp for players FG writers think are overvalued. Why? 2:59 Dan Szymborski: Well, now, there are still people that think he was good last year 3:00 CamdenWarehouse: If only responding that way to Markakis questions made them stop 3:00 Mr. Density: I think FanGraphs should be blue instead of green. Work on that 3:01 Dan Szymborski: My proposed redesign has long been rejected. 3:01 Dan Szymborski: 3:02 Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: So are you the anti Cal Ripkin where your streaks of consecutive chats participated is a broken string of 1 and 2 week streaks? 3:02 Dan Szymborski: Stuff happens! 3:02 Behave for the Daves: Or you’ll have to explain your job to the Bobs 3:02 Will: Should the braves give Tyler Flowers a 3-4 year deal? what does the money look like if yes? 3:02 Dan Szymborski: Don’t really see the point for the Braves. 3:02 Travis: Why does Hollywood want Joker to be a sympathetic character? 3:02 Dan Szymborski: Clownish rehab? 3:02 hscer: FG should be blue…no, yell– 3:03 Dan Szymborski: OK, on that note, I have to take off. 3:03 Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming! You can find me work at ESPN.com, chats and projections here at FanGraphs, and at DSzymborski on Twitter.