Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/14/23

Dan Szymborski: Greetings, fair FanGraphs reader, it is a time for chats and chidings.

Dan Szymborski: Also, since it was being stubborn about getting on the front page, my queue is almost nothing, so this is YOUR best time for random nonsense.

Ryan Z: Hey Dan, we are starting to see talk of the next CBA negotiations taking place and what each side wants. Do you expect we’ll have another lockout? Missed games in 2027?

Dan Szymborski: While it’s too early to say exactly *what* will happen, I’m not particularly optimistic.

Dan Szymborski: The players complaints heading into the last CBA are going to be basically unchanged except for minimums salaries.

Dan Szymborski: The luxury tax threshold still grows slower than inflation and WAY slower than MLB revenue growth

Dan Szymborski: Revenue growth in baseball is still mainly things that aren’t distributed based on team quality/popularity

Dan Szymborski: So poorly captured by players.

Dan Szymborski: Teams still play games with service time.

Dan Szymborski: The question is whether the players in a few years will be any more willing to eat serious missed time than players a couple years ago.

Dan Szymborski: So who knows?

vinny: Stephenson with the save?thoughts?

Dan Szymborski: Not sure

Dan Szymborski: Robert Stephenson’s save I presuem?

Dan Szymborski: He’s been really solid with the Rays

Dan Szymborski: I think they just enjoy showing off that they can now fix relievers on the plane ride to Tampa

David White: Premier starting pitchers no longer reach the 7+ WAR totals of yesteryear. Has the distribution of starting pitcher WAR become more flat over time, or has the top of the distribution simply been chopped off (nobody is pitching 250 innings anymore) and distributed to middle relievers instead? If the former, is it possible that it’s a better strategy to not pay for “aces” from a team-building perspective?

Dan Szymborski: Mostly chopped off since there are still lots of bad pitchers

Dan Szymborski: I do think it will slow the growth of salaries in top pitchers

Zach: If Acuna gets to 40-70 HR-SB, how big of a WAR lead would Mookie have to have to take the MVP from him? It would have to be 2+ right?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure a club has the same draw among voters that it used to

Dan Szymborski: Especially a “new” club

Dan Szymborski: I think if it had been 50/50, it would be a bigger deal voter wise

Dan Szymborski: (I vote for NL ROY this year, so I am not an NL MVP voter)

Krusty: A pair of Mets-related questions: Ronny Mauricio sure has hit the ball really, really hard in a really, really small sample size. Brett Baty, in a bigger but still probably kinda small? sample is not hitting super well.

What’s your take on them?

Dan Szymborski: The thing is that smaller sample sizes are more important when talking data like this

Dan Szymborski: It really is fair to take Baty down a couple notches and bump up Mauricio

Guest: Could the Cardinals realistically cobble together enough of a pitching staff this offseason to be competitive (at least in the NLC)?

The offense is still good, but I’m less confident in its 2024 potential now that Goldschmidt and Arenado look more good than phenomenal

Dan Szymborski: They *could* but I’m not sure how aggressive they’re really going to be. It’s a conservative organization

Dan Szymborski: Anyway halfway competent team is competitive in the NL Central though

bringbackpologrounds: I asked this to Jay a week ago: How many active players will be .300 lifetime hitters at the end of their career?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had Cabrera finishing at .304 at the start of the year

Dan Szymborski: and nine active players finishing at least .290

Dan Szymborski: Well, seven since I still projected Cano and Pujols

Dan Szymborski: (Cabrera, Arraez, Brantley, Altuve, Blackmon, Votto, Freeman)

Dan Szymborski: but that’s only the 50/50 mark, so you expect some players to beat that

Dan Szymborski: I dunno, seven or eight?

Guest: Who comes in last place in 2024: Angels or A’s?

Dan Szymborski: A’s

Jack Glasscock’s Cup: Braves and Guardians are playing two different sports.

Guest: Is it true that David Stearns is secretly the son of former Mets catcher John Stearns, and that he’s out to get Dave Parker and everyone associated with the Pittsburgh  Pirates?

Dan Szymborski: I wonder what ChatGPT says about it

Dan Szymborski: In baseball’s hallowed halls, a secret winds,
A complex tale, where destiny entwines,
David Stearns, the Mets’ VP, the name proclaimed,
A son’s connection, hidden, unashamed.
From John Stearns, a legend of the past,
A legacy preserved, shadows cast,
In whispers ‘mongst the diamond’s sacred ground,
A vendetta veiled, a vendetta bound.
A chessboard set, a strategy concealed,
In boardrooms shrewd, his power is revealed,
To undermine the Pirates’ storied grace,
To plot their fall with skill and subtle trace.
In family ties and rivalries that churn,
A tale of secrets, where the pages turn,
For David, son of John, a legacy to bear,
In baseball’s realm, a secret to declare.
Yet, can he break the bonds of history’s might,
And in the Pirates’ heart, plant seeds of blight?
In baseball’s complex dance of fate and chance,
The son’s ambition seeks its grand advance.
In each pitch and swing, in every inning’s play,
The story of their clash unfolds today,
With wisdom passed from father’s hand to son,
The battle’s fought, b

Dan Szymborski: The battle’s fought, but who shall be undone?
This intricate tale, both secret and profound,
In baseball’s tapestry, forever bound,
David Stearns, with motives held in store,
Secretly yearns to even the score.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Why do we have KBO stats on the site, but not NPB?

Dan Szymborski: I’m…not sure. I’ve actually been meaning to ask that.

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: Will minor leaguers be negotiating at the same time as the MLBPA?

Dan Szymborski: Hmm…you’ve got a solid inventory of Questions Dan Doesn’t Know the Answer to!

Joe Shlabotnik: What do you make of Cole Ragans’s meltdown at the end of last start–specifically, the three WP in a row, with him falling down on the first and third? Mechanical issue? Yips? Mound maintenance issue? Injury or precursor that he and the team have somehow not sussed out? Just curious what your gut says. (I’m not a betting guy at all, so I was surprised to see, on a twitter thread about it, how many peoples’ instinctive reply–whether cynical, joking, or serious–was that he was engaging in Black Sox-esque gambling foul play.)

Dan Szymborski: I generally think a combination of the first two

Dan Szymborski: I haven’t seen anything about the mound, but then again I don’t watch many Royals games at this point in the season

Dan Szymborski: even if they were playing the Jays

Dan Szymborski: I think it’s easy to go on full tilt, even for a professional

Jon: Since May 1 Triston Casas has a 146 wRC+, good for 10th in baseball.  He has put up pretty huge BB/ISO numbers in his career so far.  How confident is ZiPS that he can maintain this sort of production going forward?

Dan Szymborski: Last month when I ran the numbers, Casas 2024 wRC+ was up to 126, about a 10 point jump, so he’s definitely moving up in ZiPS

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS had Olson at 421 at the start of the season, so 500 certainly isn’t crazy with another big homer season  written in pen

Urban Shocker’s Jockstrap: What would Trout’s ROC projections look like if he gets traded and stays healthy forever because his past/current injuries are entirely due to a curse on Moreno/the Angels?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have a simple way to do “forever healthy” things

Dan Szymborski: He was already showing some signs of decline. Even if perfectly healthy, he’s now on the wrong side of 30

Dan Szymborski: and time always wins

bringbackpologrounds: Matt Olson for 500 HR? He needs 8 35 HR seasons to get there and he’s only 29.

Dan Szymborski: Oops, that was the Olson question

Dan Szymborski: Suddenly talking about Olson wasn’t just me being random

Kevin W: The Yankees moved catcher Edinson Duran from rookie league, where he had 121 plate appearances, to Triple-A yesterday. Why? Protect him from the minor league draft?

Dan Szymborski: I actually missed that one. I’m not really sure. You sometimes see guys promoted temporarily just to be a spare body, but where their SWB injuries I missed?

Dan Szymborski: It feels like some roster shifting move, maybe the FCL roster is too full for everyone they want there?

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t have the specific info on that

Inaccessible Rail: The Mets have a minor league pitcher named Peyton Battenfield. Isn’t that the best baseball game you’ve ever heard? Bat and Field? Too bad he’s not a position player.

Dan Szymborski: Loveisa!

Inaccessible Rail: Can we change Wins Above Average to Wins Above the Mean so that we can change the acronym from the terrible WAA to the more pronounceable WAM?

Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan – do you have any before and after Davis Schneider projections?  As in, before he started putting up 0.1 WAR per MLB game.

Dan Szymborski: He’s up to about a three-win 2023 last I checked

Dan Szymborski: though ZiPS already liked him

Urban Shocker’s Jockstrap: Chances Matt Olson finishes with 500+ HRs? What active player has the best (still miniscule chances) of catching Aaron, and of catching Bonds?

Dan Szymborski: Doing a milestone thing monday!

Urban Shocker’s Jockstrap: Is there a correlation between player size and strikeout rate that goes beyond “big player swing hard/tiny player slap hit”? I always wonder about player size effects on umpire strike zone, and how well they’re able to adjust the zone from batter to batter, especially in extreme cases

Dan Szymborski: https://tht.fangraphs.com/does-size-matter-part-4/

James: If Chas and Yainer are for real, do the 2024 Astros challenge the Braves for best offense?

Dan Szymborski: They certainly could. The high end of their offense is very good already

Dan Szymborski: Kinda curious what Dusty does, if he actually retires

Dan Szymborski: Chas could be hot on the heels of Bonds’ HR season record and I still think Baker would frequently sit him for no reason!

David: Ohtani hasn’t played in 10 days and could potentially just be shutdown for the year. Is there a decent chance Corey Seager or Julio could make a run for MVP?

Dan Szymborski: My guts says no

RAGBRAI: What are the odds that three NLC  teams make the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have them in front of me, but REALLY small. You basically need all three NLC possibilities to beat the PHillies

Dan Szymborski: Now, Milwaukee has a godo shot

Dan Szymborski: OK, maybe REALLY small is a strethc

Dan Szymborski: whey can’t is epll

Dan Szymborski: spell

Dan Szymborski: I swear I’m not having a stroke.

Dan Szymborski: 14% in ZiPS, that’s higher than I’d thought

Dan Szymborski: But I guess they don’t all have to beat the Phillies

Oddball Herrera: A coder joke for you that I can’t help but make (too bad he’s hurt, he was fun while it lasted):

{
   “Last Name”: “Dominguez”
}

Guest: do you think Tanner Bibee Could Have A real shot at AL Rookie of the year?

Dan Szymborski: I certainly don’t think he’s the favorite, but it’s not CRAZY

Dan Szymborski: Jung’s been injured, Yoshida’s dropped off

Dan Szymborski: But defeating Gunnar’s going to be hard

Dan Szymborski: But I’d be shocked if he DIDNT get a significant number of votes

Dan Szymborski: Casas going to get some support too

RAGBRAI: What is a more meaningless stat for pitchers, wins or holds?

Dan Szymborski: God, that’s a cruel game. Holds probably.

RAGBRAI: Is Elly De La Cruz closer to what we are are seeing now or what we saw with his initial call up. ‘Somewhere in between’ should not be an acceptable answer, but as moderator it’s your call.

Dan Szymborski: That’s so cruel!

Dan Szymborski: I’m the boss here. Somewhere in the middle is about right

RAGBRAI: Stolen bases are up but is the percentage of SBs versus being caught up too? If so by much? Will the increase continue next year or will it level off?

Dan Szymborski: SB success is up like five percentage points.

Dan Szymborski: That’s likely above the realistic break-even point, so I expect SBs to still go up a bit

Greg: In all of the Davis Schneider talk I’m a bit disappointed that we have heard so little off the name “Shane Spencer”. It makes me think that the whole world is just younger than me. Just look at them, on my lawn in their flat brim caps and all of their TikToks

Dan Szymborski: Sorry, was pulling up something

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, ZiPS liked Schneider coming into the season, he’s not really out of nowhere (though his streak kinda is)

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t do a Spencer projection and I can’t do that quickly, but here are the minor league translations I get for him, and they were really unimpressive.

Dan Szymborski:

Dan Szymborski: Given the lack of defensive value, I can’t imagine a projection for him was as good as Schneider’s

Dan Szymborski: Schneider was at 1.6 WAR in like 400 PA before the season

Kork: Mariners? Mariners.

Inaccessible Rail: In the wake of the Mets/Padres/Yankees disasters, If the Rangers don’t make the playoffs, will we ever see a big free agent signing again?

Dan Szymborski: Of course we will!

Urban Shocker’s Jockstrap: Is there a hypothetical point at which the type of model input available to you, say on player biometrics and medicals, would cause you to lose interest in continuing to develop ZiPs to include to the most cutting-edge parameters? I realize you’ll likely never get all the stuff teams have started to collect, but if suddenly you had all kinds of info on player sleep patterns and microtears in ligaments and all that increasingly weird, possibly intrusive data, would you want to use it or is that getting so far beyond actual baseball that you’d be a little disheartened and disinterested?

Dan Szymborski: I’m for anything that can make the projections better!

Dan Szymborski: and while I don’t have in depth as any one team, anything that is available *widely* from team to team, I have ways of obtaining

Dan Szymborski: Remember at this point, we’ve gotten all the low-hanging fruit

Dan Szymborski: each gain will be smaller than the ones prior

Todd Bonzalez: Are you as convinced as others are that it is specifically the new incentives that has made GMs across baseball more cavalier about prospect promotions?

Dan Szymborski: No

Guest: Which do you prefer, the Sandwich Islands or Chile?

Dan Szymborski: Chile for sure

Dan Szymborski: aren’t the Sandwich Islands unpopulated? The internet must totally suck then!

Dan Szymborski: I’ve never been to Chile, but it’s somewhere I like to go

Dan Szymborski: I like their cuisine, mountains, temperatures that don’t have me stewing in my own juices

Stats: I took an Econometrics class and Game Theory class in college and largely had no idea what I was doing. What would be the best resources to learn more about the subject at a deepish level to start trying to conduct your own analysis? You seem like you have a pretty good idea of what you’re doing.

Dan Szymborski: It really depends what you’re struggling with most!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure what the best references are at this point

Dan Szymborski: Because I’d be a terrible teacher! lol

Texas Rangers: Why do the baseball gods hate us???

Dan Szymborski: For taking the hat off the logo

Brew Up: “Any halfway competent team is competitive in the NLC though” is an interesting dig at a division poised to send 3 teams to the playoffs. Is there a more dangerous team that no one is talking about in a series than Milwaukee with their horses?

Dan Szymborski: We have a playoff system that now sends halfway competent teams! lol

Dan Szymborski: Actually, Brewers have the biggest positive bump in ZiPS roster quality from seasonal to postseason model

Dan Szymborski: just ahead of Blue Jays

Yuniesky Betancourt: Which will we see first in MLB, from this point forward: a player who is 7’1″ or a player who is 5’4″?

Dan Szymborski: Gaedel!

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure I buy Altuve is 5’6

Dan Szymborski: And there’s a rumor that as as minor leaguer, David Eckstein worked in the Keebler treehouse

Guest: how often does zips spit out a projection that’s so far from expected that it makes you double check nothing is wrong with the system?

Dan Szymborski: Not FREQUENTLY simply because I pay attention to stuff

Dan Szymborski: and a model isn’t going to be absolutely off the ledge for a mean projection

Dan Szymborski: sometimes there are surprises in the percentiles

Dan Szymborski: or if I break something like the time I projected Jose Molina to have a 1.400 batting average

RandyJOHNSON: Dan is there hope for Trevor Story

Dan Szymborski: Of course!

Hopeless Cubs Fan: Hey Dan, what kind of contract do you expect Cody Bellinger to get this off-season?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll get nine figures and will be worth less.

Dan Szymborski: There are really good reasons to be skeptical of his power

Mike S: Do you agree with the take that using a FIP based WAR is more useful as a predictive stat then a stat that tells you how the pitcher actually performed over the course of a season?

Dan Szymborski: Here’s the problem

Dan Szymborski: There IS no “actual performance” tally for a pitcher or any defensive player

Dan Szymborski: We simply ASSIGN runs allowed to pitchers either entirely or mostly, in somewhat arbitrary fashion

Dan Szymborski: ERA/RA is trick accounting

Dan Szymborski: Now, ERA is a useful stat

Dan Szymborski: but just because there’s an accounting trick doesn’t mean that something is USEFUL

Dan Szymborski: What if we gave every pitcher half a run allowed for every run and then half a run to the pitcher or the fielder primarily involved in the play that led to the runs?

Dan Szymborski: It’s still evaluating ACTUAL runs, but assigned in a DIFFERENT arbitrary way

Dan Szymborski: What people generally miss is that ALL performance records are only a partial reflection of what a player actually did.

Dan Szymborski: FIP is *far* from perfect. But ERA/RA isn’t some blessed record of “actual” performance either.

Dan Szymborski: And at the end of the day, should an Investor of the Year award go every year to someone who wins Powerball?

Yeah Well Hiura Towel: How much wood would a woodchuck chuck if a woodchuck could chuck wood?

Dan Szymborski: Would depend on the weight of the woodchuck

Wow: Bloom is out in BOS. Surprised?

TomBruno23: How will Boston remember the Chaim Bloom Era?

Dan Szymborski: No.

Dan Szymborski: Unfairly.

Dan Szymborski: Bloom’s largely a scapegoat. He’s dealing with the cards that he was given by ownership.

Dan Szymborski: And they’ve rebuilt the farm system while he’s been there.

Dan Szymborski: There’s a term for people who think that Bloom was the driving force behind trading Betts: stupid people.

Jonathan: Do you incorporate a stuff/PitchFX model into ZiPS at this point?

Dan Szymborski: There’s some more stuff that’s still in beta versions

JROD SQUAD: Zips projections who is better pitcher next few years….Bryan Woo or Bryce Miller?

Dan Szymborski: Miller last I checked

TomBruno23: Juniel Querecuto becomes the 6th player in Cardinals history to have a last name begin with a ‘Q’ and first since RHP DanQuisenberry (1988-89).

Dan Szymborski: On that note, I have a ton to do, so I gotta wrap up now.

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming all!