Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/26/19

Dan Szymborski: It is time. A time for chats.

James: After last night Greinkes fangraphs war for 2019 past his 2015 war. Do you buy that he has been more valuable this year?

Dan Szymborski: Absolutely.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s not forget that offense is up more than a half-run a game since 2015

Dan Szymborski: And Arizona is still tougher than Dodger stadium

Adam: Which wild card contender is most likely to beat the Astros in the division series?

Dan Szymborski: I still think the Indians can be dangerous in a short series where you get a lot of Beebs and Clevs

Jim Leyland Palmer: Daniel-son, do you have any thoughts about the top of the 2020 draft at the moment? Tork or Martin for you?

Dan Szymborski: Dean Martin > Peter Tork

Dan Szymborski: Since it’s the Tigers, I think it’s Torkelson

Dan Szymborski: I suspect the Orioles would have tkaen Hancock

Dan Szymborski: While I generally advocate taking the best player available and bollocks to the position (given the length of time and uncertainty in the MLB draft), the Tigers are just *so* awful offensively on the farm and so much better with pitching that I don’t think you can’t take a top bat

Jim Leyland Palmer: The Tigers are clearly devoid of any quality hitting, but have money to spend. Is there any half-decent FA bat you could see actually being a realistic fit for them this winter?

Dan Szymborski: Not really. Maybe they’ll make some one-year offers to guys like Smoak, but the team’s pitching isn’t going to be awesome in 2020 yet I don’t think

v2micca: Acuña’s quest for a 40/40 season has officially ended just shy of the mark due to the Braves wanting to ensure he is healthy for the NLDS.  Are you as bummed out about his as I am?

Dan Szymborski: A little but this won’t be the only shot

Anonymous: MLB’s new Happy Fun Ball is neither ‘Happy’ nor ‘Fun’. Discuss.

Dan Szymborski: Fact: It’s still a ball

Kristen: What kind of deals will the better FA C’s this offseason like D’Arnaud and Grandal get?

Dan Szymborski: I can see d’arnaud MAYBE getting 2/20, but his injury history is going to scare people away as a catcher

Dan Szymborski: Grandal, well, I’ll be writing about him in the FA predics article!

v2micca: Why is it the AAA plays with the MLB ball, but not AA and below.  Feels like an arbitrary cut-off point.

Dan Szymborski: DON’T RUIN THE WHOLE MINORS

Derek in LIttle Rock: I love wRC+ but do you know how the park factors, league averages, etc., are calculated in real time?  Also: will you be hosting playoff chats and will you subsequently grow a playoff beard?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not involved in that, so I’m not sure.

v2micca: Do you expect MLB to attempt to “de-juice” the ball this off-season?

Dan Szymborski: No

Wicho, Jr.: Besides Machado, Tatis and a first baseman who shall not be named, how much of their current crop of players can the Padres realistically roll with next season if they want to make the playoffs?

Dan Szymborski: I think a lot of them.

Adam: Do you think the pre-injury improvements Gallo showed this year will stick going forward?

Dan Szymborski: Mostly, yes

Mariner’s Fan: Are AFL stats used in the Zips model?

Dan Szymborski: They are not. When I’ve tried to make translations, they’ve been incredibly noisy. Maybe someone smarter than me has figured out a way

dfan: Can a 2-pitch pitcher like Paddack succeed at a high level in MLB  or is the development of a 3rd pitch necessary to get to the elite level?

Dan Szymborski: I expect his curve to improve over time. He’s made such a big, fast jump to the majors that I think he’s going more with what works right now as he’s gotten adjusted to majors

David: For the last time in Seattle, Happy Felix Day.

Bobby: Like any normal human being, I’m always on a random B-R or FG page. I know this is FG, but I really need Goose Gossage’s 1975 bWAR explained to me please.

Dan Szymborski: well, that’s 141 2/3 innings of *212* ERA+

Dan Szymborski: (I knew the year you were referring to but had to look up to get the exact numbers)

Dan Szymborski: White Sox defense helps him too.

Dan Szymborski: Well, in bWAR, didn’t help him in real life

Matt: Thursday SzymChat. I keep forgetting, but NOT TODAY, DAN!

Dr. Frank Jobe: Who wins NL Cy Young? I’m starting to come around to a DeGrom repeat.

Dan Szymborski: I think his IP lead over Scherzer squeezes it out for him

Dan Szymborski: I think I’ve been saying Gromace and the Silver Hammer most likely.

hscer: Anyone ever finished 2nd in a fantasy baseball league they led for at least 178 consecutive days? I need a support group.

Tim Robinson: I’m not trying to start a conspiracy, but it’s a little weird that WAR was invented just in time for it to show Mike Trout is the greatest ever, no?

Dan Szymborski: His midichlorins invented WAR, it’s not his fault

stever20: Is Scherzer even going to be a finalist in your opinion for Cy Young this year?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be a finalist.

Fangraph’s Lurker: Any idea what numbers the Dodger’s or Astros’s offenses could put up if they play all their home games at Coor’s Field?

Dan Szymborski: More 🙂

Matt: Relating to the Post Season eligibility for DV: I’m torn on the idea of on-field punishment for off-field deeds. BUT, that said, doesn’t it make more sense to remove the postseason implication from any specific infraction, and replace it with a ban from the post season for players having served X number of games of suspension on the season. This would defacto grab your larger infractions (PED, DV, etc), but also leave the door open to compound punishment for bean-ball wars if the MLB were to ever get serious about the suspension terms for such activities.

Dan Szymborski: I’m personally fine with it as long as it’s agreed upon between MLB and MLBPA

Dan Szymborski: Unlike crap like Melky being ex post facto ineligible for batting title

Guest: Is Chapman the new front runner reliever for HOF? Highest active fWAR @ 19.3 and 13th all time (which I believe incorporates WPA #s for relievers) with fewer innings than Jansen and Kimbrel. His K/9 is the highest and FIP the lowest of all pitchers min 500 IP. and FWIW his save numbers are respectible. Not to mention the other two look more and more in decline

Dan Szymborski: I think he likely edges out Kimbrel. I’m not on board yet with Kimbrel being toasty

Dan Szymborski: Both strike me as likely in the end

Adam: In addition to their starting eight plus a backup catcher, the Dodgers have Taylor, Hernandez, and Freese (all righties), and Beaty (lefty) for three postseason bench spots.  Who would you leave off?  Or do you keep all four and roster *only* 12 pitchers?

Dan Szymborski: I’d only roster 12 pitchers.

Matt: *A* time? Or *the* time?

Dan Szymborski: Wait, what context?

Mr. Woodcock: Do you think Kiley would let me guest star on his and Eric’s podcast? We could call it the Untitled McLongcock Podcast

Fangraph’s Lurker: Feel like the marlins are taking a little too much heat, the Royals and Tigers are abysmal (Don’t get me wrong, the Marlins are still horrible)

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been pretty mean to the Marlins.

Keith: Everyone complains about service time manipulation, but what is a viable alternative approach acceptable to both sides in CBA negotiations that would solve the problem without creating some other unintended consequencce?

Dan Szymborski: That’s the matzoh ball!

Dan Szymborski: You can’t expect me to resolve *that* one easily!

Dan Szymborski: My ideal world concept would be a spare service time “refund”

Dan Szymborski: That a player, upon filing MLB free agency after six years of service time, gets a bonus pro-rated to their maximum one-year salary as a member of the team they were tied to

Dan Szymborski: Imagine the Cubs let Bryant play out to free agency and he leaves.

Dan Szymborski: He has 6.171 years of service time when he hits FA

Dan Szymborski: Under this idea, the Cubs would have to give him a service bonus of 171/180% of his maximum one-year salary with the Cubs

Dan Szymborski: or the average of his three most highly paid years or his third highest paid year or whatever

Dan Szymborski: I think for players that *do* hit FA with their teams, they ought to be compensated for that playing time

Dan Szymborski: Not that MLB would want to do this

Jon: Why is the leaderboard preset to qualified hitters but also preset to WAR? Seems like it should be preset to 0 PA

Dan Szymborski: That has struck me as weird, but it’s set up that way because then people can immediately sort by other things and not have to remember to change to qualifying

CamdenWarehouse: Yesterday I saw #standwithCarson trending and I thought your cold war with Cistulli had finally gone hot and people were taking sides

CamdenWarehouse: But can Tork sing?

Bruce: Ive never heard a legit answer why the juiced ball helps everyone hit more HRs except the guys who were already hitting 45+ before. Is there empirical evidence that “those guys were already hitting it far enough” and never flew out to the warning track?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that it’s not helping those guys

Cubs Fan: Can you say something to make me less sad?

Dan Szymborski:

Nelson: Seems this year based on a tiny sample size that teams that trot out their B lineups the day after clinching are winning more than they should be. Has anyone ever looked into this effect?

Dan Szymborski: I have not.

Dan Szymborski: Though I have found that teams that clinch early have a tendency to *very* slightly outperform what you expect from their seasonal WPCT in the playoffs

Dan Szymborski: That could be one of the caues

OddBall Herrera: Brewers question – Can you remember a team ever having been this successful for this long with basically no one in the rotation?  They’ve basically made the W.C. game two years in a row on the strength of a rotation that belongs on a rebuilding team.

Dan Szymborski: And it’s not new for the Brewers!

Dan Szymborski: Look at the Harvey Wallbanger-era Brewers pitching staff from 80-83. It was not good.

TC Bear: My wife, who is a Twin City native, says that beating the Yankees in the playoffs would be as big a deal to Minnesotans as a World Series victory. Are there any other similar one sided hatreds in MLB?

Dan Szymborski: O’s Yankees.

Dan Szymborski: Pretty much every team not Red Sox or Giants and Yankees

Dan Szymborski: and Dodgers

Schiff: Will we have a new president by the start of the World Series?

Dan Szymborski: That quickly? No

Ben Dubose: Why does Fangraphs hate Bregman?

Dan Szymborski: They/we/it do?

Nick: At 29 years old and with 8 seasons in the majors, Andrelton Simmons has put up 27.2 dWAR (good for 14th all time); do you think he has a chance to break the all-time record of 44.2?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

MayorMcCheese: Marcus Semien. That dude is having an excellent year. Legit? Ball fueled? (hey now)

Dan Szymborski: Fairly legit.

Billy Beane: Unless there is a game 163 or he pitches out of the bullpen over the final weekend Frankie Montas will end his season with a 3.00 FIP and 3.0 fWAR, which is a very satisfying silver lining to his disappointing PED-shortened breakout season.

Dan Szymborski: Still can’t fully make up for Khris Davis not finishing at .247

Matt: As a Yankees fan, I’m not particularly scared of the Astros. They’re both very strong teams, and relatively evenly matched – what happens happens. That said, should I be rooting for the WC team to beat them, or would that likely mean that the WC team is coming in hot and arguably more dangerous (at that specific moment)?

Dan Szymborski: Nah, it wouldn’t mean much about the WC team

Dan Szymborski: The O’s can take the Astros in one game

Devil’s Advocate: Barry Bonds is sitting at home right now wondering why he’s accused of ruining the sanctity of baseball records, while MLB can decide to vaporize as many offensive benchmarks as they want by dicking with the ball (har har).  Sure, the intra-season playing field is level, but inter-season, isn’t a juiced ball a performance enhancement?

Dan Szymborski: It’s more a stat-enhancement if everyone is doing it

Dan Szymborski: the argument is when *some* can *choose* to get an enhancement

Dan Szymborski: (though remember, based on the data, I’m a PED skeptic at the MLB level)

Kosch: Any idea why DRS (4th best) likes the Astros, but UZR doesn’t?

Dan Szymborski: Non identical data. There are going to be discrepancies

Matt: You’re not involved in your beard growing decisions? Did you sell that right off? I’m just curious what the market rate is for buying someone’s beard growing decisions.

Dan Szymborski: Social pressure.

Dan Szymborski: My beards are terrible.

Dan’s uncle : How did you figure out caleb Smith gave up 8 more Homeruns than he should have?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a built-in method that look at various stats, including statcast, to model how many HRs a pitcher “shoudl” allow

Dan Szymborski: https://blogs.fangraphs.com/andrew-cashner-and-theoretical-home-run-sh…

Dan Szymborski: I’m impressed, you guys are asking a very high density of baseball questions!

Kosch: Astros 125 wRC+…when is your article on how great the Astros are coming out?

Dan Szymborski: I’m not doing any year-end stuff like that until actual year-end!

Anarchist: White chicken chili, discuss

Dan Szymborski: that’s white chicken bean stew

John Oleruds Helmet: Which famous athlete wore #33 and scored 4 touchdowns in one game for Polk High??

Dan Szymborski: Al Bundy

Dan Szymborski: What am I, new?

Nolan: Have there been any updates on CBA talks between the MLBPA and MLB since the two sides agreed to reopen discussions early?

Dan Szymborski: Nothing public and I haven’t heard much of substance yet from the usual backchannels

Hmm: I know the rotation isn’t as good at the top teams, but I believe worse rotations than recent versions of Paxton and Severino (and you never know with Tanaka) have carried teams through. Hell, the dropoff from CC to Burnett and Pettitte seems like the 2009 rotation wasn’t actually any better. The Astros are best, but I don’t think people should be absolutely floored if they were to be beaten.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Yankees have a bad rotation, just one that’s not top-tier

OddBall Herrera: You guys should totally tweak your WAR formula such that a totally average player has a ridiculous WAR, just to see if people will make up reasons he must be great.  I feel that the entertainment value of this social experiment is worth the loss of your credibility

Dan Szymborski: That’s the kind of cruelty I enjoy

Dan Szymborski: Don’t put laxatives in all the cupcakes. Put them in one and ANNOUNCE it

John Oleruds Helmet: Yo my man Dan he got a lot of cars

Dan Szymborski: Guys, please don’t ask serious questions which include a dig at a colleague, I’m not going to post that.

MLB Owner: I enjoy service time manipulation.

Jolly Ol’ Saint Nick: When was the last time someone other than your mother called you handsome?

Dan Szymborski: Hi Andy!

Dan Szymborski: Sheesh, 12?

Dan Szymborski: Mom never called me handsome.

Dan Szymborski: Someone once emailed me to tell me I looked like a cross between Shrek and Hermann Göring, which isn’t far off

Dan Szymborski: My parents never lied to me about *anything*

Let It Be Lowenstein: For the CBA, what if the definition of a year of service time was reduced from 172 days to say 90 days?  Teams could no longer game an extra year by sitting a player out for 3 weeks, but instead would have to hold them back until mid-season, which competitive teams would loathe to do (and non-competitive teams would do anyway).

Dan Szymborski: I don’t like bright lines as they all have the potential for shenanigans on some level

Dan Szymborski: When I was four or five, I asked my grandfather what happens when you die and he gave me reading material on putrefaction.

Gregg: Did you follow the Antonio Brown NFL saga at all?  Has MLB ever had a comparable situation?

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been following the AB stuff and snarking on Twitter as have most writers!

Dan Szymborski: My sister is convinced that he’s legitimately mentally ill

Dan Szymborski: Now my sister is doctorish rather than a doctor (she’s a technologist for radiography and x-rays in oncology), but she’s way closer than I am

E: With the juiced ball how is no one approaching 60 home runs?

Dan Szymborski: I think those outliers aren’t going to be evenly distributed through time, even with an identical ball

Lee: What are the odds on Theo pulling another guerrilla suit special this year? (See https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2005/11/01/theo-epstein-resigns-lea…)

Dan Szymborski: I think no

Dan Szymborski: There were Red Sox-related issues there

Dan Szymborski: One of my regrets is that I knew about some Epstein-Lucchino tensions in the front office but was too dumb to realize I was onto a story months before it hit the public

Dan Szymborski: I inquired about Roberto Petagine with a few sources in the FO at the time and got hints that it was a question that there was a lot of tension about

Anonymous: Somehow Chris Davis didn’t have the worst hitter season this year, despite that memorable start. RIP Jeff Mathis (-2.1 WAR in 244 PA)

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t put two-and-two together

Dan Szymborski: previous Q

Guest: The obvious answer to service time manipulation is to have all baseball related activities next to a sufficiently large gravitational force that time passes more slowly for baseball players.  So from the owners’ POV they have the rights to players for potentially huge periods of time, maybe even entire lifetimes, so there’s no reason to mess with service time, but from the players’ POV time is passing normally.  Everyone wins!

Richie: Kimbrel is toast unless he loses some of that hilariously massive weight. And if he didn’t for this season, why expect him to get religion going forward?

Dan Szymborski: It’s easier to do stuff when someone’s paying you vs. the prospect of future earnings

Lee: Re: Teams resting starters after clinching: Check out the lineup that the Tigers ran out on the day of Henderson Alvarez’s no hitter: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIA/MIA201309290.shtml

Adam: What’s the best rivalry between teams that have never been in the same division as one another?

Dan Szymborski: Yankees Dodgers!

Matt: For a chat, Dan.

CamdenWarehouse: Cat update?

Dan Szymborski: I’m out of town at the moment. My mom called after checking in there and feeding them this morning and Justinian and Cassiopeia were sleeping in the yellow bedroom, Constantine was fighting the cat toy that looks like a j, and Mercutio was sleeping under the upstairs piano (the digital one).

Guest: Hypothetically, if Donald Trump held a press conference today announcing that he had planted this whistleblower complaint just to troll his opponents, and then slowly backed out of the Oval Office giving everyone the middle finger, would you be impressed or angry?

Dan Szymborski: Impressed

Dan Szymborski: I don’t get very wrapped up in politics. I’m a libertarian and nobody in politics (and most of the populace) don’t see eye-to-eye with me, so I’m rather disconnected.

Matt: I see you assumed that “white chicken chili” had beans, Dan. This was a correct assumption, because without beans, it would not be chili.

Dan Szymborski: I assumed that if it was white chicken *chili* then the person was calling something that was not chili, chili, so it would more likely have beans

Let It Be Lowenstein: If the Astros were in a winner take all game and Verlander and Cole were both rested, who would you start and how would you handle the pitching staff for that game?

Dan Szymborski: Cole and all hands on deck

Dan Szymborski: The WC came is the *only* game you know, going into the playoffs, is going to be advance or go home.

stever20: do you think the Rockies can be a real consistent contender with half their games at Coors(with what it does to their pitching staffs)?

Dan Szymborski: Yes. If their secondary talent wasn’t a dumpster fire and they actually realized this fact, they may have already been a real consistent contender

Matt: Was the serious question digging at that Szymborski guy? You can tell me Meg, I won’t share.

Dan Szymborski: I’ll post things taking digs at me, so long as they’re amusing. I just won’t put up with it with colleagues.

J: Do we have any info on how players recover from rotator cuff surgery? I’m asking for Miguel Andujar.

Dan Szymborski: Pitchers poorly

Dan Szymborski: Hitters, it depends.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: I think Eloy Jimenez is the AL ROY.  Am I onto something or on something?

Dan Szymborski: Cocaine possibly.

Dan Szymborski: Maybe molly while watching a White Sox game.

Dan Szymborski: I like Jimenez long-term, but thinking that he’s having a better year than Yordan Alvarez is bucking fonkers.

Kosch: Are you one of the idiots who thinks Trout should be MVP?  Without him the Angels win a ton less games and get a better draft pick…he’s hurting the team!!!!

Matt: Any chance I can borrow your cats? Maybe if they’re sufficiently cool enough, they’ll strike up a great friendship with my girlfriend’s cat. The, when I return the cats to you, my girlfriend’s cat will plead that he doesn’t want to be separated from your cats. We’ll go back and forth a bit until we come to a compromise that you can have him. And poof. No more cat for me.

Dan Szymborski: I try to keep my menagerie maxed out at 4.

Dan Szymborski: That way, each cat and me can have their own bedroom.

RageKage: PSA – Reds hall of fame announcer Marty Brennaman is calling the last game of his 46 year career today. Listen for free on MLB.com. It’s worth your time.

BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Oh shit totally forgot about Alvarez there.  Yeah, I’m on something.

Dan Szymborski: Get in the car, we’re taking you to rehab

Josh R: Interesting fact.  Cody Bellingers batting average has gone down from Sunday to Sunday every week this entire season except for one week in April. EVERY SINGLE WEEK

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but whne you start out at like .500 and retain a high BA for so long, that’ll happen!

CamdenWarehouse: If you have too many cats you have to worry about being eaten in your sleep

Dbo: I can’t believe I forgot about Szym chat again! This Thursday chat is really throwing me off

Dan Szymborski: On that note, farewell!

Dan Szymborski: Next week is our chat playoff schedule.

Dan Szymborski: There will be Szymticipation, but it’ll be more baseball Dan than baseball-and-stuff Dan.