Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/26/19

12:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It is time. A time for chats.

12:03
James: After last night Greinkes fangraphs war for 2019 past his 2015 war. Do you buy that he has been more valuable this year?

12:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Absolutely.

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Let’s not forget that offense is up more than a half-run a game since 2015

12:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And Arizona is still tougher than Dodger stadium

12:06
Adam: Which wild card contender is most likely to beat the Astros in the division series?

12:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I still think the Indians can be dangerous in a short series where you get a lot of Beebs and Clevs

12:07
Jim Leyland Palmer: Daniel-son, do you have any thoughts about the top of the 2020 draft at the moment? Tork or Martin for you?

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Dean Martin > Peter Tork

12:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Since it’s the Tigers, I think it’s Torkelson

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I suspect the Orioles would have tkaen Hancock

12:08
Avatar Dan Szymborski: While I generally advocate taking the best player available and bollocks to the position (given the length of time and uncertainty in the MLB draft), the Tigers are just *so* awful offensively on the farm and so much better with pitching that I don’t think you can’t take a top bat

12:09
Jim Leyland Palmer: The Tigers are clearly devoid of any quality hitting, but have money to spend. Is there any half-decent FA bat you could see actually being a realistic fit for them this winter?

12:09
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not really. Maybe they’ll make some one-year offers to guys like Smoak, but the team’s pitching isn’t going to be awesome in 2020 yet I don’t think

12:10
v2micca: Acuña’s quest for a 40/40 season has officially ended just shy of the mark due to the Braves wanting to ensure he is healthy for the NLDS.  Are you as bummed out about his as I am?

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: A little but this won’t be the only shot

12:10
Anonymous: MLB’s new Happy Fun Ball is neither ‘Happy’ nor ‘Fun’. Discuss.

12:10
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fact: It’s still a ball

12:11
Kristen: What kind of deals will the better FA C’s this offseason like D’Arnaud and Grandal get?

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I can see d’arnaud MAYBE getting 2/20, but his injury history is going to scare people away as a catcher

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Grandal, well, I’ll be writing about him in the FA predics article!

12:11
v2micca: Why is it the AAA plays with the MLB ball, but not AA and below.  Feels like an arbitrary cut-off point.

12:11
Avatar Dan Szymborski: DON’T RUIN THE WHOLE MINORS

12:12
Derek in LIttle Rock: I love wRC+ but do you know how the park factors, league averages, etc., are calculated in real time?  Also: will you be hosting playoff chats and will you subsequently grow a playoff beard?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not involved in that, so I’m not sure.

12:12
v2micca: Do you expect MLB to attempt to “de-juice” the ball this off-season?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: No

12:12
Wicho, Jr.: Besides Machado, Tatis and a first baseman who shall not be named, how much of their current crop of players can the Padres realistically roll with next season if they want to make the playoffs?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think a lot of them.

12:12
Adam: Do you think the pre-injury improvements Gallo showed this year will stick going forward?

12:12
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mostly, yes

12:12
Mariner’s Fan: Are AFL stats used in the Zips model?

12:13
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They are not. When I’ve tried to make translations, they’ve been incredibly noisy. Maybe someone smarter than me has figured out a way

12:15
dfan: Can a 2-pitch pitcher like Paddack succeed at a high level in MLB  or is the development of a 3rd pitch necessary to get to the elite level?

12:16
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I expect his curve to improve over time. He’s made such a big, fast jump to the majors that I think he’s going more with what works right now as he’s gotten adjusted to majors

12:16
David: For the last time in Seattle, Happy Felix Day.

12:16
Bobby: Like any normal human being, I’m always on a random B-R or FG page. I know this is FG, but I really need Goose Gossage’s 1975 bWAR explained to me please.

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: well, that’s 141 2/3 innings of *212* ERA+

12:17
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (I knew the year you were referring to but had to look up to get the exact numbers)

12:18
Avatar Dan Szymborski: White Sox defense helps him too.

12:19
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Well, in bWAR, didn’t help him in real life

12:20
Matt: Thursday SzymChat. I keep forgetting, but NOT TODAY, DAN!

12:21
Dr. Frank Jobe: Who wins NL Cy Young? I’m starting to come around to a DeGrom repeat.

12:21
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think his IP lead over Scherzer squeezes it out for him

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think I’ve been saying Gromace and the Silver Hammer most likely.

12:22
hscer: Anyone ever finished 2nd in a fantasy baseball league they led for at least 178 consecutive days? I need a support group.

12:22
Tim Robinson: I’m not trying to start a conspiracy, but it’s a little weird that WAR was invented just in time for it to show Mike Trout is the greatest ever, no?

12:22
Avatar Dan Szymborski: His midichlorins invented WAR, it’s not his fault

12:22
stever20: Is Scherzer even going to be a finalist in your opinion for Cy Young this year?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll be a finalist.

12:23
Fangraph’s Lurker: Any idea what numbers the Dodger’s or Astros’s offenses could put up if they play all their home games at Coor’s Field?

12:23
Avatar Dan Szymborski: More 🙂

12:23
Matt: Relating to the Post Season eligibility for DV: I’m torn on the idea of on-field punishment for off-field deeds. BUT, that said, doesn’t it make more sense to remove the postseason implication from any specific infraction, and replace it with a ban from the post season for players having served X number of games of suspension on the season. This would defacto grab your larger infractions (PED, DV, etc), but also leave the door open to compound punishment for bean-ball wars if the MLB were to ever get serious about the suspension terms for such activities.

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m personally fine with it as long as it’s agreed upon between MLB and MLBPA

12:24
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Unlike crap like Melky being ex post facto ineligible for batting title

12:27
Guest: Is Chapman the new front runner reliever for HOF? Highest active fWAR @ 19.3 and 13th all time (which I believe incorporates WPA #s for relievers) with fewer innings than Jansen and Kimbrel. His K/9 is the highest and FIP the lowest of all pitchers min 500 IP. and FWIW his save numbers are respectible. Not to mention the other two look more and more in decline

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think he likely edges out Kimbrel. I’m not on board yet with Kimbrel being toasty

12:27
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Both strike me as likely in the end

12:27
Adam: In addition to their starting eight plus a backup catcher, the Dodgers have Taylor, Hernandez, and Freese (all righties), and Beaty (lefty) for three postseason bench spots.  Who would you leave off?  Or do you keep all four and roster *only* 12 pitchers?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’d only roster 12 pitchers.

12:28
Matt: *A* time? Or *the* time?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Wait, what context?

12:28
Mr. Woodcock: Do you think Kiley would let me guest star on his and Eric’s podcast? We could call it the Untitled McLongcock Podcast

12:28
Fangraph’s Lurker: Feel like the marlins are taking a little too much heat, the Royals and Tigers are abysmal (Don’t get me wrong, the Marlins are still horrible)

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve been pretty mean to the Marlins.

12:28
Keith: Everyone complains about service time manipulation, but what is a viable alternative approach acceptable to both sides in CBA negotiations that would solve the problem without creating some other unintended consequencce?

12:28
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s the matzoh ball!

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: You can’t expect me to resolve *that* one easily!

12:29
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My ideal world concept would be a spare service time “refund”

12:30
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That a player, upon filing MLB free agency after six years of service time, gets a bonus pro-rated to their maximum one-year salary as a member of the team they were tied to

12:31
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Imagine the Cubs let Bryant play out to free agency and he leaves.

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: He has 6.171 years of service time when he hits FA

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Under this idea, the Cubs would have to give him a service bonus of 171/180% of his maximum one-year salary with the Cubs

12:32
Avatar Dan Szymborski: or the average of his three most highly paid years or his third highest paid year or whatever

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think for players that *do* hit FA with their teams, they ought to be compensated for that playing time

12:33
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Not that MLB would want to do this

12:33
Jon: Why is the leaderboard preset to qualified hitters but also preset to WAR? Seems like it should be preset to 0 PA

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That has struck me as weird, but it’s set up that way because then people can immediately sort by other things and not have to remember to change to qualifying

12:34
CamdenWarehouse: Yesterday I saw #standwithCarson trending and I thought your cold war with Cistulli had finally gone hot and people were taking sides

12:34
CamdenWarehouse: But can Tork sing?

12:34
Bruce: Ive never heard a legit answer why the juiced ball helps everyone hit more HRs except the guys who were already hitting 45+ before. Is there empirical evidence that “those guys were already hitting it far enough” and never flew out to the warning track?

12:34
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure that it’s not helping those guys

12:34
Cubs Fan: Can you say something to make me less sad?

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski:

12:36
Nelson: Seems this year based on a tiny sample size that teams that trot out their B lineups the day after clinching are winning more than they should be. Has anyone ever looked into this effect?

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I have not.

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Though I have found that teams that clinch early have a tendency to *very* slightly outperform what you expect from their seasonal WPCT in the playoffs

12:36
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That could be one of the caues

12:39
OddBall Herrera: Brewers question – Can you remember a team ever having been this successful for this long with basically no one in the rotation?  They’ve basically made the W.C. game two years in a row on the strength of a rotation that belongs on a rebuilding team.

12:39
Avatar Dan Szymborski: And it’s not new for the Brewers!

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Look at the Harvey Wallbanger-era Brewers pitching staff from 80-83. It was not good.

12:40
TC Bear: My wife, who is a Twin City native, says that beating the Yankees in the playoffs would be as big a deal to Minnesotans as a World Series victory. Are there any other similar one sided hatreds in MLB?

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: O’s Yankees.

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Pretty much every team not Red Sox or Giants and Yankees

12:40
Avatar Dan Szymborski: and Dodgers

12:40
Schiff: Will we have a new president by the start of the World Series?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That quickly? No

12:41
Ben Dubose: Why does Fangraphs hate Bregman?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: They/we/it do?

12:41
Nick: At 29 years old and with 8 seasons in the majors, Andrelton Simmons has put up 27.2 dWAR (good for 14th all time); do you think he has a chance to break the all-time record of 44.2?

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:41
MayorMcCheese: Marcus Semien. That dude is having an excellent year. Legit? Ball fueled? (hey now)

12:41
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Fairly legit.

12:41
Billy Beane: Unless there is a game 163 or he pitches out of the bullpen over the final weekend Frankie Montas will end his season with a 3.00 FIP and 3.0 fWAR, which is a very satisfying silver lining to his disappointing PED-shortened breakout season.

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Still can’t fully make up for Khris Davis not finishing at .247

12:42
Matt: As a Yankees fan, I’m not particularly scared of the Astros. They’re both very strong teams, and relatively evenly matched – what happens happens. That said, should I be rooting for the WC team to beat them, or would that likely mean that the WC team is coming in hot and arguably more dangerous (at that specific moment)?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nah, it wouldn’t mean much about the WC team

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The O’s can take the Astros in one game

12:42
Devil’s Advocate: Barry Bonds is sitting at home right now wondering why he’s accused of ruining the sanctity of baseball records, while MLB can decide to vaporize as many offensive benchmarks as they want by dicking with the ball (har har).  Sure, the intra-season playing field is level, but inter-season, isn’t a juiced ball a performance enhancement?

12:42
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s more a stat-enhancement if everyone is doing it

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: the argument is when *some* can *choose* to get an enhancement

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: (though remember, based on the data, I’m a PED skeptic at the MLB level)

12:43
Kosch: Any idea why DRS (4th best) likes the Astros, but UZR doesn’t?

12:43
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Non identical data. There are going to be discrepancies

12:43
Matt: You’re not involved in your beard growing decisions? Did you sell that right off? I’m just curious what the market rate is for buying someone’s beard growing decisions.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Social pressure.

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My beards are terrible.

12:44
Dan’s uncle : How did you figure out caleb Smith gave up 8 more Homeruns than he should have?

12:44
Avatar Dan Szymborski: ZiPS has a built-in method that look at various stats, including statcast, to model how many HRs a pitcher “shoudl” allow

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m impressed, you guys are asking a very high density of baseball questions!

12:45
Kosch: Astros 125 wRC+…when is your article on how great the Astros are coming out?

12:45
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m not doing any year-end stuff like that until actual year-end!

12:46
Anarchist: White chicken chili, discuss

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: that’s white chicken bean stew

12:46
John Oleruds Helmet: Which famous athlete wore #33 and scored 4 touchdowns in one game for Polk High??

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Al Bundy

12:46
Avatar Dan Szymborski: What am I, new?

12:47
Nolan: Have there been any updates on CBA talks between the MLBPA and MLB since the two sides agreed to reopen discussions early?

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Nothing public and I haven’t heard much of substance yet from the usual backchannels

12:47
Hmm: I know the rotation isn’t as good at the top teams, but I believe worse rotations than recent versions of Paxton and Severino (and you never know with Tanaka) have carried teams through. Hell, the dropoff from CC to Burnett and Pettitte seems like the 2009 rotation wasn’t actually any better. The Astros are best, but I don’t think people should be absolutely floored if they were to be beaten.

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t think the Yankees have a bad rotation, just one that’s not top-tier

12:47
OddBall Herrera: You guys should totally tweak your WAR formula such that a totally average player has a ridiculous WAR, just to see if people will make up reasons he must be great.  I feel that the entertainment value of this social experiment is worth the loss of your credibility

12:47
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That’s the kind of cruelty I enjoy

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Don’t put laxatives in all the cupcakes. Put them in one and ANNOUNCE it

12:48
John Oleruds Helmet: Yo my man Dan he got a lot of cars

12:48
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Guys, please don’t ask serious questions which include a dig at a colleague, I’m not going to post that.

12:49
MLB Owner: I enjoy service time manipulation.

12:49
Jolly Ol’ Saint Nick: When was the last time someone other than your mother called you handsome?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hi Andy!

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Sheesh, 12?

12:49
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Mom never called me handsome.

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Someone once emailed me to tell me I looked like a cross between Shrek and Hermann Göring, which isn’t far off

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My parents never lied to me about *anything*

12:50
Let It Be Lowenstein: For the CBA, what if the definition of a year of service time was reduced from 172 days to say 90 days?  Teams could no longer game an extra year by sitting a player out for 3 weeks, but instead would have to hold them back until mid-season, which competitive teams would loathe to do (and non-competitive teams would do anyway).

12:50
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t like bright lines as they all have the potential for shenanigans on some level

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: When I was four or five, I asked my grandfather what happens when you die and he gave me reading material on putrefaction.

12:51
Gregg: Did you follow the Antonio Brown NFL saga at all?  Has MLB ever had a comparable situation?

12:51
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ve been following the AB stuff and snarking on Twitter as have most writers!

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: My sister is convinced that he’s legitimately mentally ill

12:52
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Now my sister is doctorish rather than a doctor (she’s a technologist for radiography and x-rays in oncology), but she’s way closer than I am

12:52
E: With the juiced ball how is no one approaching 60 home runs?

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think those outliers aren’t going to be evenly distributed through time, even with an identical ball

12:53
Lee: What are the odds on Theo pulling another guerrilla suit special this year? (See https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2005/11/01/theo-epstein-resigns-lea…)

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I think no

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There were Red Sox-related issues there

12:53
Avatar Dan Szymborski: One of my regrets is that I knew about some Epstein-Lucchino tensions in the front office but was too dumb to realize I was onto a story months before it hit the public

12:55
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I inquired about Roberto Petagine with a few sources in the FO at the time and got hints that it was a question that there was a lot of tension about

12:55
Anonymous: Somehow Chris Davis didn’t have the worst hitter season this year, despite that memorable start. RIP Jeff Mathis (-2.1 WAR in 244 PA)

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I didn’t put two-and-two together

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: previous Q

12:56
Guest: The obvious answer to service time manipulation is to have all baseball related activities next to a sufficiently large gravitational force that time passes more slowly for baseball players.  So from the owners’ POV they have the rights to players for potentially huge periods of time, maybe even entire lifetimes, so there’s no reason to mess with service time, but from the players’ POV time is passing normally.  Everyone wins!

12:56
Richie: Kimbrel is toast unless he loses some of that hilariously massive weight. And if he didn’t for this season, why expect him to get religion going forward?

12:56
Avatar Dan Szymborski: It’s easier to do stuff when someone’s paying you vs. the prospect of future earnings

12:56
Lee: Re: Teams resting starters after clinching: Check out the lineup that the Tigers ran out on the day of Henderson Alvarez’s no hitter: https://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/MIA/MIA201309290.shtml

12:56
Adam: What’s the best rivalry between teams that have never been in the same division as one another?

12:57
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yankees Dodgers!

12:57
Matt: For a chat, Dan.

12:57
CamdenWarehouse: Cat update?

12:58
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’m out of town at the moment. My mom called after checking in there and feeding them this morning and Justinian and Cassiopeia were sleeping in the yellow bedroom, Constantine was fighting the cat toy that looks like a j, and Mercutio was sleeping under the upstairs piano (the digital one).

12:58
Guest: Hypothetically, if Donald Trump held a press conference today announcing that he had planted this whistleblower complaint just to troll his opponents, and then slowly backed out of the Oval Office giving everyone the middle finger, would you be impressed or angry?

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Impressed

12:59
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I don’t get very wrapped up in politics. I’m a libertarian and nobody in politics (and most of the populace) don’t see eye-to-eye with me, so I’m rather disconnected.

12:59
Matt: I see you assumed that “white chicken chili” had beans, Dan. This was a correct assumption, because without beans, it would not be chili.

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I assumed that if it was white chicken *chili* then the person was calling something that was not chili, chili, so it would more likely have beans

1:00
Let It Be Lowenstein: If the Astros were in a winner take all game and Verlander and Cole were both rested, who would you start and how would you handle the pitching staff for that game?

1:00
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cole and all hands on deck

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: The WC came is the *only* game you know, going into the playoffs, is going to be advance or go home.

1:01
stever20: do you think the Rockies can be a real consistent contender with half their games at Coors(with what it does to their pitching staffs)?

1:01
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yes. If their secondary talent wasn’t a dumpster fire and they actually realized this fact, they may have already been a real consistent contender

1:02
Matt: Was the serious question digging at that Szymborski guy? You can tell me Meg, I won’t share.

1:02
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I’ll post things taking digs at me, so long as they’re amusing. I just won’t put up with it with colleagues.

1:02
J: Do we have any info on how players recover from rotator cuff surgery? I’m asking for Miguel Andujar.

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Pitchers poorly

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Hitters, it depends.

1:03
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: I think Eloy Jimenez is the AL ROY.  Am I onto something or on something?

1:03
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Cocaine possibly.

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Maybe molly while watching a White Sox game.

1:04
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I like Jimenez long-term, but thinking that he’s having a better year than Yordan Alvarez is bucking fonkers.

1:04
Kosch: Are you one of the idiots who thinks Trout should be MVP?  Without him the Angels win a ton less games and get a better draft pick…he’s hurting the team!!!!

1:05
Matt: Any chance I can borrow your cats? Maybe if they’re sufficiently cool enough, they’ll strike up a great friendship with my girlfriend’s cat. The, when I return the cats to you, my girlfriend’s cat will plead that he doesn’t want to be separated from your cats. We’ll go back and forth a bit until we come to a compromise that you can have him. And poof. No more cat for me.

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: I try to keep my menagerie maxed out at 4.

1:05
Avatar Dan Szymborski: That way, each cat and me can have their own bedroom.

1:06
RageKage: PSA – Reds hall of fame announcer Marty Brennaman is calling the last game of his 46 year career today. Listen for free on MLB.com. It’s worth your time.

1:06
BarryBondsJuicedForOurSins: Oh shit totally forgot about Alvarez there.  Yeah, I’m on something.

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Get in the car, we’re taking you to rehab

1:06
Josh R: Interesting fact.  Cody Bellingers batting average has gone down from Sunday to Sunday every week this entire season except for one week in April. EVERY SINGLE WEEK

1:06
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but whne you start out at like .500 and retain a high BA for so long, that’ll happen!

1:07
CamdenWarehouse: If you have too many cats you have to worry about being eaten in your sleep

1:07
Dbo: I can’t believe I forgot about Szym chat again! This Thursday chat is really throwing me off

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: On that note, farewell!

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: Next week is our chat playoff schedule.

1:07
Avatar Dan Szymborski: There will be Szymticipation, but it’ll be more baseball Dan than baseball-and-stuff Dan.

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Dan Szymborski is a senior writer for FanGraphs and the developer of the ZiPS projection system. He was a writer for ESPN.com from 2010-2018, a regular guest on a number of radio shows and podcasts, and a voting BBWAA member. He also maintains a terrible Twitter account at @DSzymborski.

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stever20
Member
Member
stever20

de Grom only winning the Cy Young due to innings lead by a smidge?

de Grom now 11-8 2.43 ERA now in 204 IP 255 K’s 7.0 fWAR, 7.3 bWAR
Scherzer now 11-7 2.92 ERA now in 172.1 IP 243 K’s 6.5 fWAR, 5.8 bWAR

while yes, the innings don’t help Scherzer obviously, the 0.49 ERA gap is gigantic.

This race seems very similar to 2017 AL Race with Kluber/Sale- where when you got to the end of the year and those numbers- it wasn’t close. It was what 27-3 in first place votes there? Of the 4 major awards(AL/NL MVP, AL/NL Cy Young)- this is the easiest call by far.

jackbauer
Member
jackbauer

I think deGrom should and will win easily. I also think Scherzer deserves to finish second but wouldn’t be surprised to see voters put Ryu ahead of him given the recency bias they frequently exhibit (Scherzer’s ERA has increased .51 over the last month while Ryu has righted the ship somewhat).

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

well, if there’s recency bias, there’s Flaherty from St Louis…

stever20
Member
Member
stever20

And Flaherty with a great finishing statement. Ryu with one as well… Think it’s very possible- if not likely that Scherzer winds up finishing 4th.