Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/9/21

Dan Szymborski: And the chat has started, at the promised time!

Mike: I think it’s become pretty clear that Kyle Tucker is a top 30 player in baseball (5 OAA, 143 wRC+, .402 xwOBA, 1.5 BsR). When do you see him making the jump to top 20? End of 2022?

Dan Szymborski: Development isn’t always a neat little line!

Dan Szymborski: Though 2022 seems like a good bet.

Who’s Fabio?: Hey Dan – CY candidate Robbie Ray’s success this season is due to his tight fitting uniform (obviously). Can the neural network explain how and why  this works for Ray?

Dan Szymborski: Sure, let me run this while I answer a few more questions.

Erik: Juan Soto has twice as many walks as strikeouts in the second half. How silly will his BB:K get in his best season?

Dan Szymborski: It probably won’t get *that* much crazier.

Dan Szymborski: Plate discipline changes, but usually not drastically. And it’s usually for a much better or worse approach, not getting even crazier.

Dan Szymborski: Though theoretically, he could get to Bonds levels and blow through the roof.

TT: Should people be concerned that Ian Anderson hasn’t shown much durability yet?  What is his projection over the next 3-5 years?

Dan Szymborski: I wouldn’t worry much. Teams are being cautious and there was a whole year of not-full pitching.

John Olerud’s Helmet: Howdy Mr Dan! i finally made it to one of your chats and i love you! Have a wonderful day

Dan Szymborski: Love me? That’s quite suspicious.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s just say you only wish me generalized rather than specific harm?

Dan Szymborski:

John Olerud’s Helmet: Oh wise one Mr Dan, so do you foresee the Blue Jays overtaking the Yanks for the divison/final wild card spot??

Dan Szymborski: I don’t, but it’s quite possible.

Dan Szymborski: The good news for the Jays is the Yankees/Red Sox don’t play each other a bunch, unless I forgot some games.

Dan Szymborski: I think they have 3 games left.

Dan Szymborski: So more opportunities to gain ground on either

Dan Szymborski: I think which of the 3 AL East teams misses the playoffs is some theoretical triangle coin flip that isn’t really possible in the real world

barney gumble: hey dan. what do you think the deal is with Gary Sanchez? is he just an ok hitter instead of a great hitter?

Dan Szymborski: That sounds about right.

Dan Szymborski: He’s a good hitter. He’s not a great one.

Dan Szymborski: I think his bat speed is a little slower than few years ago

TT: Tyler Stephenson doesn’t get much ROY love, but that’s partially because of his teammate, India.  Stephenson is one of those few HS catchers who seems to be MLB successful.  What do you see as his ceiling?

Dan Szymborski: Won’t comment on the ROY stuff since I’m voting.

Dan Szymborski: Ceilings are tricky for catchers because they develop weird.

Dan Szymborski: But I’m actually fairly confident at this point he’s going to have a Kurt Suzuki-like career on-average, which is quite solid.

Jefferson: How hyped are you for Josh Lowe hype time? Will he get any run down the stretch or just be a pinch runner and 4th OF?

Dan Szymborski: I think they’ll work him into a significant number of games.

Dan Szymborski: He was rocking WTF they call the International League now and Rays will trust their minor league talent.

Dan Szymborski: “Triple-A East”

TT: A lot of people ask about Logan Webb.  But, please inform how you see his future ability to handle a 180-200 IP workload, and whether he now has a #1 starter ceiling.

Dan Szymborski: I think he will.

Dan Szymborski: I’m stingy about calling pitchers aces because pitchers will break your heart.

Dan Szymborski: But I’d say that the vast majority of 2020 is real, and I think there’s still room for him to improve his changeup

TT: What’s the next season Baltimore will be over .500?

Dan Szymborski: We might all be dead.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s say 2024.

Dan Szymborski: (Hopefully we’re not dead by 2024, it would suck to die that close to gett my Hall vote!)

Appa Yip Yip: The AL Wild Card race has descended into madness. Who are the SzymPicks to take the spots?

Dan Szymborski: Boston, NY, but again, very three-way coin flippy

John B: Dan, I get frustrated when I see bWAR and fWAR vary by so much.  You basically can see players that are 1 WAR off in a world where most players are 2-3 WAR.  It seems to undermine the metric to have such wide variances.  I leave out WARP, but I’ve seen similar issues.  Why can’t there be more consistency to a stat that we all use every day? Why doesn’t MLB weigh in on how they want their official data presented ?

Dan Szymborski: The thing is, you don’t count WAR

Dan Szymborski: You *calculate* WAR. And you’re going to run into different philosophical concepts of establishing value

Dan Szymborski: If you visit 8 doctors with a stomach ache, you may find that the recommended treatment isn’t identical either.

Dan Szymborski: Some might recommend X medication, some X and Y, some may also make a point to suggest diet changes, some may see a need for further tests.

Dan Szymborski: But it doesn’t undermine the practice of medicine that approaches are different.

Dan Szymborski: You should think of statistics as an *exploration* of an answer, rather than something that will give you the One True Answer.

Dan Szymborski: And sometimes, it’s complicated.

Dan Szymborski: Like pitch framing.

Dansby SwanSong: Loved Don Fehr’s speech representing Marvin Miller.  What a shame Miller’s induction came after his death.  After hearing the stories from Fehr my admiration for Miller increased.

Dan Szymborski: Fehr did a good job succeeding Miller after the Ken Moffett mess.

Dan Szymborski: I did not watch the speeches. I’m not generally big on speeches that I’m not intending.

Dan Szymborski: It’s a shame that Miller wasn’t inducted when he was alive.

Dan Szymborski: It’s unfriggingbelievable that Bowie F’in Kuhn was in the Hall before Miller.

Dan Szymborski: Bowie Kuhn in the Hall is like going to Cooperstown and finding out that Neifi Perez is in the Hall.

Guest: What do you make of Brendan Rodgers’ power outage at Coors Field? Is this something that young guys in COL have faced before?

Dan Szymborski: Haven’t seen any systemic t hing.

Dan Szymborski: Specific home/road splits aren’t very predictive at all.

Dan Szymborski: Let’s put it this way: a hitter’s actual platoon splits doesn’t become as good a predictor of future platoon splits as generic platoon splits until you’re in the neighborhood of 3000 PA. Home/road splits are actually worse.

Dan Szymborski: The instances of when you should care about a player’s actual home/road splits are *very* rare.

mcratsandwich: I may be living under a rock, but I have not heard anything about all the experimental rules that were instituted in the minors this year. Especially the moving of the mound back.

Dan Szymborski: Yup, they’re doing that!

Dan Szymborski:

Guest: Is there a resource to see which hitters get the most accurate / inaccurate strike zones from umpires? Every time I see Nick Ahmed or Mark Canha at the dish, it seems that they’re getting balls called strikes, but I don’t want to rely on the eye test. Anywhere I can check this?

Dan Szymborski: An easy one? I’m not sure.

Guest: If you had a pitcher that you knew could come in and throw two pitches, and get two easy, perfect ground balls every single time they came in – but that’s it, only two pitches for two perfect ground balls, guaranteed – how do you think they’d be valued?

Dan Szymborski: Very highly. They’re like a swiss army knife for tons of high-leverage situations

Dan Szymborski: Basically, any time with one or two outs they kill it

Dan Szymborski: Except in the case of a grounder the runner on 3rd scores on

Dan Szymborski: We actually talked about this in our gamecast yesterday (these kind of theoreticals)

Dan Szymborski: the *guarantee* changes the value considerably.

Dan Szymborski: A pitcher with an ERA of nine has no value

Dan Szymborski: BUT, a theoretical pitcher that allows exactly one run every inning, no more, no fewer, has a *lot* of value.

Dan Szymborski: Once you have assumptions rather than probabilities, you can manipulate things.

Ben: What would you have thought before the season, if I told you that come Sept. Scherzer would lead the majors in ERA, Soto would lead the majors in OBP, and Trea Turner would lead in batting average, AND the Nationals would be in last place?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t even know that it’s all that crazy!

Dan Szymborski: The Nats had a LOT of value in their top talent.

Dan Szymborski: It was very easy to envision a scenario in which the wheels fell off horribly because of guys 5-26

Joe schlabotnik: do you think a team of 8 Ozzie albies would make the postseason

Dan Szymborski: Sure, as long as you don’t make me pitch him

Oriole fan: Did you see Cedric Mullens having a breakout year?  Where did he get his power?  Projections didn’t see it. The best story to come out of Birdland this year.

Dan Szymborski: I did not!

Dan Szymborski: And I’m still not sure where he got it.

Dan Szymborski: I’m from Baltimore, so I’ll take it.

Guest: Are any active relievers gonna make the Hall?

Dan Szymborski: Kimbrel could. So could Aroldis.

Dan Szymborski: But not easy inductees. It may take a while

Guest: Trent Grisham – sophomore slump or just not the top 20 outfielder we thought he was going into this season (see: the Sporer and Mason pre-season rankings)?

Dan Szymborski: Grisham’s not really performing out of line with projections

structural purist: Would the Cubs just release Heyward next year? I don’t know that Hermosillo is a great prospect, but it’s pretty hard to understand giving Heyward PAs now instead of him

Dan Szymborski: I don’t think they would.

Appa Yip Yip: Does ZiPS believe in Alejandro Kirk the way I believe in Alejandro Kirk?

Dan Szymborski: Depends how much you believe in him. If it’s unabiding love, Steamer likes him more than ZipS

D: Maybe you’ve answered this before, but what was with the extremely high RBI projections for certain players in ZIPS? I’m thinking especially of Soto, who was projected for 141 RBIs. What is ZIPS seeing in him/his team?

Dan Szymborski: I was surprised by the RBI totals coming into the season.

Dan Szymborski: It was pretty much Soto.

Dan Szymborski: But I haven’t really dug into the issues.

Darb: Is Andrew Chafin the best player in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I’m going to guess no.

Mark I: Cedric Mullins is headed for 6 WAR this year. Is he a superstar going forward or does he settle into being a ~3 WAR guy in the future?

Dan Szymborski: LIkely some kind of regression, but it’s hard to have a season like that and have it not be real development.

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS sees him as a 3-4 win player in 2022

Oriole fan: What should the Orioles give their non corporate season ticket holders for 2021 and 2022?  They certainly should be rewarded

Dan Szymborski: STEAMED CRABS

Pete: Guten Tag Dan! Do you see the Angels going after a big name SS this offseason? That would be so Arte to get a big bat instead of the pitching they desperately need right?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know WTF the Angels are doing, honestly.

Appa Yip Yip: Who are you voting #1 for RoY?

Dan Szymborski: IMA GONNA TAP THE SIGN

TKDC: What are odds the Braves 4 infielders get to 30 home runs each this year? Is that something you could calculate with Zips?

Dan Szymborski: ZiPS *can* do it, but it’ll take me some time as I’m not set up for this *specific* question.

Dan Szymborski: But ZiPS now has three of the four with an over/under above 30 and Dansby at 29

Guest: My Crazy Friend says Spencer Torkelson is the best prospect in baseball. Who does ZIPS say is currently the best prospect in baseball?

Dan Szymborski: I can’t do that on the fly like this!

Dan Szymborski: Probably Adley

Dan Szymborski: But Torkelson will move up from 25

Dan Szymborski: But I don’t even have final minor league translations done yet

Darb: Looks like Marcell Ozuna is going to get off easy. Do you think he plays MLB next year?

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll serve a stiff suspension, but if he settles without jail time, I can’t see him missing a whole year

Appa Yip Yip: The thing about fWAR and bWAR differentiating so much at times is that it allows you to just pick the number that looks better for your team’s players and worse for the other team’s players it is win/win

Dan Szymborski: Yeah, but you shoudln’t do that!

Dan’s Emotional Intimacy: No question but that WAR/Doctor analogy was fantastic.

Dan Szymborski: Every writer is receptive to ego massaging!

TuffyGoeswich: Does ZiPS see Riley Greene as capable of being a starter next year for the Tigers?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t want to run it on the fly before translations are done, but I’d be surprised if the answer is no

Maddoning: Speaking of German, FRANK SCHWINDEL!  He’s not THIS good, but really, how real is Frank the Tank?

Dan Szymborski: Color me skeptical

D: Semirelated to my other dumb question, how do you/ZIPS see Soto stacking as an all-time great? Feels like his track record is close to unmatched.

Dan Szymborski: He’s WAY up there

Dan Szymborski: Soto fights with Acuna and Tatis for more career WAR remaining

Dan Szymborski: And the other two do have some unresolved injury issues!

Dan Szymborski: If you held a gun to my head and said Cooperstown or no, I’d say Cooperstown

Dan Szymborski: And then I’d call the police. WHY ARE YOU USING A GUN THIS WAY? They’re for fighting dangerous and delicious animals! You could’ve just asked me.

embracing differentials: I love watching run differentials for outliers each year. Seattle is -53 and 12 wins over .500. Luck isn’t real so how does this happen?

Dan Szymborski: They have crazy-high offense this year in high-leverage situations

Dan Szymborski: seriously, in BR’s high leverage, they’re like at .820 OPS

fans and players: is the computer called strike zone in the near distant future?  I HATE seeing this inconsistent strike zone and catchers “stealing” strikes

Dan Szymborski: I do think so

Big Qs: Shouldn’t the plural form of Luftbaseball and Fastball be the same?

Dan Szymborski: Probably

Dan Szymborski: My German is only good enough to speak with German relatives.

Dan Szymborski: They probably make fun of my German when we’re not talking

Dan Szymborski: And their English is way better than my German too! So I’m not sure why we usually talk in German

NL west enjoyer: is this year’s NL West the most difficult division ever?

Dan Szymborski: I’ll say yes

New World: Did you name it Zips because there’s also a Z in your name?

Dan Szymborski: Yes

Dan Szymborski: I was using some of Voros’ theoretical DIPS stuff in projections and I was the first one other than Voros to do it, so I wanted it to rhyme.

Dan Szymborski: (With V-man’s blessing)

Dan Szymborski: So I started with Szymborski Projection System. SIPS sounded like a trendy hipster cafe that only served 80s juice boxes.

Dan Szymborski: so I went with ZIPS since that was the next letter in my name.

Dan Szymborski: And then I went with ZiPs because I liked CHiPs (second favorite as a little kid after Dukes of Hazzard)

Dan Szymborski: Incidentally, my mom swears I learned to read at 3 basically so I could thwart them by reading TV guide when my parents said the Dukes weren’t on

Dan Szymborski: but I kinda typoed it the first time as ZiPS. Jay had picked it up in his blog the day I released it, so I just went with that stylizing.

Dan Szymborski: Yes, this is a stupid explanation and 100% true.

Dan Szymborski: I didn’t realize anyone would give a crap about anything I wrote or did, so I didn’t really think that far ahead.

Dan Szymborski: I’m *still* quite unsure why anybody read my work!

Jeff Wilpon: I enjoyed your recent Mets piece. If you were running the show in Queens what sorts of moves would you look to make this off-season?

Dan Szymborski: I think I’d aggressively try to land short-term free agents early in the offseason, like Scherzer and maybe Verlander. But if I fell short early, then I might focus on a bit of a retool, targeting 2023 and beyond.

Cave Dameron: thank you

Dan Szymborski: Very cool, thanks!

Dalton Wilcox: Woodruff or Burnes moving forward?

Dan Szymborski: C. Milwaukee Burnes.

Hideki: TELL US WHO DIDNT VOTE FOR JETER

Dan Szymborski: I don’t know who didn’t!

Dan Szymborski: They haven’t spken out.

Dan Szymborski: It’s kind of good that I didn’t get into the BBWAA earlier and vote.

Dan Szymborski: Because of the ten-player limit, I would not have voted for Jeter.

Dan Szymborski: My priority is players with uncertainty around 75% and uncertainty around 5%.

Dan Szymborski: And then players who need to start moving up because they’re running out of time.

Dan Szymborski: A vote for a player who is absolutely certain to hit 75%, if you have more than 10 players you’d vote for, is worthless.

Dan Szymborski: And I would have been public too, because I also believe in that transparency as a principle.

Dan Szymborski: But I can’t say I’m unhappy that I was unable to put myself in a position where ethics demanded I do something that resulted in my never being able to step in New York again!

Steve O: I appreciate that you acknowledge your fandom of the Orioles as a writer. Most writers say they’re not fans anymore but that’s gotta be eyewash right? I know they say it’s just a job, but that’s honestly hard to believe. Rooting interests are human. Even in a boxing match that I know nothing about, I’ll root for someone just because.

Dan Szymborski: I’m a fan, but I’d be lying if it was the same as it was before I was a writer.

Dan Szymborski: I don’t live or die with fandom.

Dan Szymborski: I’m from Baltimore and have been an O’s fan since I was a tyke. And all things being equal, I’d rather the O’s win.

Dan Szymborski: But I can’t see I’m emotionally *invested* in it all that much.

Dan Szymborski: say

Dan Szymborski: It *is* hard to be a rabid fan about something you deal with professionally, especially in a role like mine where my objectivity is very important.

Dan Szymborski: 12-year-old me would be seriously pissed off I’ve written so many positive pieces about the Yankees!

Erik: What’s the logic behind voters not being allowed to talk about awards they’re voting for ahead of time? Avoiding campaigns  or something? Seems like it could make for a lot of insightful articles if we saw voters’ thought processes throughout the season.

Dan Szymborski: That’s a big one.

Dan Szymborski: They want people thinking of this when they cast their ballot, not as an ongoing thing over the season where you get early season assumptions built in

Dan Szymborski: And for marketing reasons, they also want a big reveal!

Dan Szymborski: As always, I’ll walk readers through the processes of

Dan Szymborski: me doing *my* ballot.

Dan Szymborski: I literally spend 12-15 hours of the final weekend of the season putting together ballots the year I have a vote

baseball crank: I bet my friend $100 that spencer torkelson wouldn’t be in the majors in 2021. what should I do with the $100?

Dan Szymborski: TACOS WHILE YOUR FRIEND WATCHES

Darb: Lunch? Cats?

Dan Szymborski: I had a couple slices of roast pork I made yesterday.

Dan Szymborski: Justinian’s sleeping on the couch in my office.

Dan Szymborski: Cassiopeia (Cassie) is sitting on my lap glaring at him across the room while he sleeps.

Dan Szymborski: Mercutio was asleep on the kitchen counter last I saw because the dishwasher was on (heat)

Dan Szymborski: and I can hear Constantine playing with upstairs nearly directly above me. It’s not Mercutio because Mercutio is a giant frigging cat and thumps a lot more

Guest: Just roll a d6 and make 1 and 2 =1, 3and 4 = 2, and 5 and 6 = 3.

Dan Szymborski: I WANT A THREE SIDED 3D OBJECTY

Luke: How concerned are you about Sixto’s health? Is there any history of pitchers coming back from a similar surgery?

Dan Szymborski: Moderately. There’s some, but it’s quite varied

Darb: So newcomers for the 2024 ballot include Arod, Mauer, Beltre, Beltran, Utley, and Big Papi. On a limitless ballot, who has your vote?

Dan Szymborski: I don’t have the vote yet that year!

Dan Szymborski: Though I would vote for all of these

Jeff in T.O.: Aroldis in the Hall? Even with the gunshot suspension?

Dan Szymborski: I think so

Szymbolism: How did Tampa let Cronenworth slip through their fingees? Seems like he’s just their type of player. Caveman brain move from Erik Neanderthal

Dan Szymborski: Not every move is going to work out!

Dan Szymborski: From the Rays point of view, he looked a lot like the B+ 2B/3B guy they can develop a million of

mcratsandwich: Guess my question was cut-off. About the experimental rules, what have you heard? Any results?

Dan Szymborski: Mixed results generally. Some people happy, some not.

Dan Szymborski: What happens from here is beyond my ability to gauge!

Pat G: What is the aging curve for ace level starters like Scherzer? Should we be looking for a cliff? or do you foresee a few more years of gradual decline?

Dan Szymborski: Hitters age, pitchers break.

Dan Szymborski: But Scherzer is getting ot the age where aging *does* start to be an issue

Dan Szymborski: Generally speaking, looking at non-injured pitchers, it’s quite a gentle slope until you get to around 38

Dalton Wilcox: Your take on statistics is nice. Do you get frustrated by how stats are treated in the mainstream or is that just part of the give and take? We’re a nation of D math students but everyone knows what athletes should be doing and how much they should be paid!

Dan Szymborski: It would be nice if probability was better understood!

Dan Szymborski: But I’d rather have these fights than still having to convince people that OBP and SLG were useful

tz: Dan, how much do you want for the rights to start a “SipS” hipster juice box cafe?  Sounds like a retro/ironic type hit for the age 20-35 crowd….

Dan Szymborski: You can have it for free! I ain’t running a restaurant unless I’m a billionaire and if I’m a billionaire, I’m not doing that work!~

Chats: Do these chats generate the most clicks?  If you guys guaranteed a chat every day at noon – I have to imagine site traffic would increase… these are the most interesting reads IMO.  Particularly you, eric, kevin

Dan Szymborski: I’m not sure, I’m actually generally unaware of traffic for different things.

Dan Szymborski: Same at ESPN. I never knew how my stuff did.

Dan Szymborski: And I figure that if nobody tells me anything, then it’s something that’s not my problem, and that’s what I prefer!

DJ: What potential World Series matchup would you most like to see?

Dan Szymborski: Royals-Cubs. Because if we got there, then something ABSOLUTELY CRAZY happened the last three weeks of the 2021 season

Appa Yip Yip: Haven’t you been writing about baseball for like twenty years? How long does it take to get HoF votes? GERONTOCRACY

Dan Szymborski: Essentially, I never asked to be in the BBWAA for a long time, even though I could have been eligible in 2010, because I didn’t want to take the ego hit if I were turned down.

Dan Szymborski: Eventually, Jeff Passan told me to stop being a wuss and got me to talk to Trent Rosecrans about it.

Dan Szymborski: In 2016.

Dan Szymborski: Which was the kick in the butt I needed

Dan Szymborski: I’m very inertia-prone in my life. I have a good, low-stress, low-drama life where I’m comfortable and happy. So my natural inclination is not to upset the apple card.

Key Flaw: I don’t listen to podcasts, so I’ve never heard your last name pronounced. Is it pronounced like a good Polish name should be, or is it in a way that would make my Polish grandma sad.

Dan Szymborski: I would guess grandma would be sad.

Dan Szymborski: I use a hard z because the first syllable of my last name is atrocious in the original Polish.

Dan Szymborski: And I’m not close with any other Szymborski in the family.

Dan Szymborski: I’m far closer with my mom’s relatives, which means Germans and Ukrainian Jews.

Big Joey: Do you think Bellinger bounces back in 2022, or is he cooked? Got him in a dynasty league

Dan Szymborski: I think he’ll bounce back, but I’m worried

Dan Szymborski: Like KG said yesterday, his bat looks SLOW

Joe: It’s my birthday so you have to answer: Is Ryan Mountcastle good?

Dan Szymborski: Good? Yes.

David: How much does a bad/very bad rookie year (Kelenic) weigh into future zips reporting? Looks like he was looking at 1.8 WAR for next year in Zips, fair to expect that to drop quite a bit?

Dan Szymborski: He’ll get his minor league performance while will help the projection from bottoming out!

Dan Szymborski: And I haven’t checked his zstats lately

Thunderclap Jackson: For mcratsandwich, Effectively Wild recently covered some of the rule changes on episode 1738 with RJ Anderson discussing his article on the  how its gone in the Atlantic league

shawshank: any insight on why the nl is dragging their feet on the dh other than more higher paid jobs?

Dan Szymborski: Like me: inertia

Big Joey: Is it crazy to comp Wander to Tony Gwynn but with more pop?

Dan Szymborski: He’s not going to hit for average like Gwynn

shawshank: when do you start running zips for the following season in general?  does it change season to season?

Dan Szymborski: I’m always working on SOMETHING

Dan Szymborski: There are usually versions of ZiPS that are 2-3 years from me being confident enough to make the “current” build

Dan Szymborski: I like a couple years of additional new data before *any* aspect goes live

Dan Szymborski: I’ve been working on pitcher percentile calibration for four years and I’m still not completely happy

Dan Szymborski: On that note, it’s time for me to take off for another week!

Dan Szymborski: Thanks for coming everyone, it’s always appreciated!

Dan Szymborski: Surprisingly on-topic for a SzymChat!

Dan Szymborski: (Playing Final Fantasy IV pixel remaster btw)

Non standard dice: including d3, d5, d7, d14, d16, d24, and d30, plus the normal d4, d6, d8, d10, d12, and d20.
https://www.amazon.com/Unusual-Approved-Dungeon-Crawl-Classics/dp/B00Y…