Dan Szymborski FanGraphs Chat – 9/29/14

11:58
Dan Szymborski: It’s party time!*

11:58
Dan Szymborski: * Any promises of a party to not indicate that there will be a party

12:00
Dan Szymborski: First up though, our usual business. Presidents fighting for some strange reason!

12:00
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12:00
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12:02
Comment From Xolo
The Fangraphs profile last week made it seem like Tomas is going to be a +3ish WAR player. Does that sound right?

12:03
Dan Szymborski: Not running final projections until he has a team, but that’s slightly optimistic I think. I’d put him more in the 2s somewhere, good but not great

12:03
Dan Szymborski: I suspect that after Abreu and the big dough for Castillo, we’ll actually see Tomas get too much money.

12:03
Comment From G
How badly did the Pirates screw the proverbial pooch by pitching Liriano and Cole this weekend?

12:04
Dan Szymborski: I’m not a fan of their usage. Volquez has been much better than they had any right to expect, but he’s not who I would want in an elimination game.

12:04
Comment From Northsider
Party time! You are the spuds mackenzie of fangraphs

12:04
Dan Szymborski: BUT SPUDS IS DEAD

12:04
Comment From Hrkac Circus
I never thought I would see the day when a debate was had over whether Volquez or Liriano was the more dependable pitcher.

12:05
Dan Szymborski: 10 years ago, would you have expected Jose Bautista to be one of the most feared sluggers in baseball? Baseball can be weird

12:05
Comment From Ian
Do you think that if run scoring remains low for another season or two, that MLB will try to do something to increase it?

12:05
Dan Szymborski: It’s a possibility.

12:05
Comment From semperty
With the Cardinals playing the Dodgers, is there anyway they’re not the villains of this postseason?

12:05
Dan Szymborski: Wait, the Dodgers or the Cardinals?

12:06
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
Why does Philly have so much more team pitching WAR than Pittsburgh? Their FIP is largely the same (xFIP is worse) and K/BB rates match?

12:06
Dan Szymborski: FIP and xFIP are not park-adjusted.

12:06
Comment From Guest
can you give me some of your cool/weird drawings. I always think they are fantastic

12:07
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12:07
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Amaro Fires Manuel

12:07
Comment From neal
ZOMG PREDICT THE PLAYOFFZ

12:07
Dan Szymborski: My specific predictions will be up on ESPN.

12:07
Comment From Art Vandelay
Millard Fillmore fighting like E. Honda is an amazing mental image, and that Grandpa Baldwin thing is spot on. Teddy Roosevelt though…

12:08
Comment From Andrew
Dan the Man! Has Prince Fielder’s fantasy value flatlined? Limited OBP keeper I would be better off keeping someone like Kris Bryant, no?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: I would not keep Fielder. I thought he was way overrated in the preseason fantasy rankings last year.

12:08
Comment From semperty
Gimme Teddy. The dude fought (and won) in Cuba, and advocated carrying a big stick around – that’s a dangerous combo.

12:08
Comment From Sandy
Who the f*** is voting for Fillmore?!

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Bitter Taft voters.

12:08
Comment From NatsFan89
Which potential World Series match-up would you find the most compelling? The least?

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Baltimore vs. Washington.

12:08
Dan Szymborski: Least exciting? Maybe Royals vs. Giants.

12:09
Comment From Pirates Hurdles
If managing the Buccos, do you go with EV or do the bullpen game?

12:09
Dan Szymborski: Well, with Cole and Liriano unavailable, I’d probably unhappily settle for using Volquez. But I’d have a quick hook.

12:09
Comment From Jim
Do you know if Fangraphs is considering switching to Sierra as it’s basis for WAR (for pitchers) or are they sticking with FIP?

12:09
Dan Szymborski: You gotta bug one of the Daves.

12:09
Comment From Nick
Can you remind me what ZiPS thought of Jose Abreu before the season started and what you personally thought as well

12:10
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS thought Abreu would be really good, but not *this* good.

12:10
Dan Szymborski: I was in the same neighborhood.

12:10
Comment From Dan Szymborski
How much surplus value is Trout expected to produce over his contract?

12:10
Dan Szymborski: Offhand — exactly 5.8 shitloads.

12:10
Comment From Brian
The _______ will win the AL Wildcard in _______ fashion, prevailing by a score of _______ to ________.

12:12
Dan Szymborski: fartnuggets, craptacular, dingleberry-to-boneriffic.

12:12
Comment From Joe
The Cardinals are villainous in the right way.

12:12
Comment From Pennsy
If the x axis of a graph is WAR and the y axis is ATTRACTIVENESS TO POTENTIAL SEXUAL PARTNER is there anybody else in the upper right quadrant with Anthony Rendon?

12:12
Dan Szymborski: I don’t know, I don’t think much about MLB player attractiveness.

12:13
Comment From Guest
I think the debate for the Pirates isn’t Volquez vs Liriano, it’s Volquez vs Cole.

12:13
Dan Szymborski: That one’s barely a debate.

12:14
Comment From Jim
The Cardinals are never the villains…how can anyone hate their team and their success.

12:14
Dan Szymborski: Royals fans still remember Denkinger call. Well the ones old enough.

12:14
Comment From Connor
If the A’s get through the WC game, I have to feel good about their chances. How much stock do you put into their recent slump compared to their overall season numbers (best run differential in MLB)? And isn’t their pitching (SPs and bullpen) as good as any in the postseason?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: There’s next to no evidence that late season performing teams do better in playoffs than early season performing teams. More a cause of stress and worry for fans than anythign real. If the A’s survive, I do like their odds.

12:15
Comment From Bruce
Is Billey Beane job the safest in Baseball?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: Yes, he’s a part-owner after all.

12:15
Comment From semperty
Is there anyway the Cardinals aren’t the villains?

12:15
Dan Szymborski: Well, the Dodgers spent a quarter-billion on payroll this year.

12:15
Comment From Bruce
Why is this chat titled: Dan Szymborski Chat by Dave Cameron. Who Are You!!??

12:16
Dan Szymborski: The chat is by Dan Szymborski. The post linking to Dan Szymborski chat is by David Cameron.

12:16
Dan Szymborski: The post announcing the chat is not the chat.

12:16
Comment From Art Vandelay
So the best defensive team in baseball this year is once again the Royals? Quelle surprise. Think a full year of Machado could have put the O’s over the top?

12:17
Dan Szymborski: 10 more runs? I think a healthy Machado could’ve done that. But I think it would be close – assuming Machado was a +30 3B going forward would be too aggressive.

12:17
Comment From Dude
Who has the best playoff rotation in the AL and NL?

12:17
Dan Szymborski: Nats, Tigers

12:17
Comment From tony j.
do you see the dodgers as a legitimate contender despite poor defense and bullpen?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: Yes, any team in the playoffs is a legitimate contender, especially one that doesn’t have a 1-game wild card

12:18
Comment From Jesse
Do you see Oakland pitching Samardzija-Gray-Lester on three days rest if they make it to the ALDS? If not, who would you throw in game 4?

12:18
Dan Szymborski: I think it depends on where they stand in the playoffs.

12:19
Dan Szymborski: Different choices up 2-0 than say down 1-2.

12:19
Comment From Jim
Dodgers should go full heel right?

12:19
Dan Szymborski: It worked for Ted DiBiase

12:19
Comment From Matt Williams
What do I do with Ryan Zimmerman?

12:20
Dan Szymborski: If he’s feeling up to it, I think his bat at 3B is worth the declining D

12:20
Comment From Vince
If I’m trying to guess a hitter’s 2015 ZiPS OPS+, would the last 2014 ROS ZiPS number (with a smidge of aging) be as good a place as any to start?

12:20
Dan Szymborski: It wouldn’t be terrible, but a lot more goes into it than that.

12:20
Comment From Alex
Do you think the Red Sox stick with what they’ve got at 3rd or sign a FA? I was specifically thinking of Headley, but it could be anyone.

12:20
Dan Szymborski: I think they stand pat.

12:21
Comment From neal
has jon lester’s season changed what his contract valuation would be, compared to what it was pre-season?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS really liked him coming up into the season – I think he gets over 150 now.

12:21
Comment From Alex
Kluber or King Felix, who you got for the Cy Young?

12:21
Dan Szymborski: Felix.

12:21
Comment From Concerned Angels fan
I know news has been good, but if Shoemaker can’t go, that means 3-man rotation of Weaver-Wilson-Santiago…And if you want a baseball is crazy: the team with the best record in baseball is dependent on the health of Matt Shoemaker in the playoffs

12:22
Dan Szymborski: Yeah, who would’ve thought it? Even with Shoemaker, the Angels have one of the weaker rotations. They gotta win slugfests.

12:22
Comment From AndrewY
Lucas Duda is one of three NL players to hit 30 home runs. Is he a productive first basemen for the new couple years, or should the Mets be looking for a free agent?

12:23
Dan Szymborski: Even if he wasn’t, I don’t think the Mets are yet in a position in which they should be adding many free agents .

12:23
Comment From Joe
Since no one would ever predict a team’s record in any 20 or so game stretch during the season, why would we think anyone can do it correctly for the playoffs?

12:23
Comment From Joe
Those responsible for the chat posting announcing the chat have just been sacked. We will do the chat in a completely different style, at the last minute, at great expense.

12:23
Comment From Guest
“Royals fans still remember Denkinger call.” That call benefitted the Royals…

12:23
Dan Szymborski: Longer post got garbled.

12:23
Dan Szymborski: That’s what I get for editing my comment on the fly.

12:23
Comment From TG3
Who is the league rooting for in the World Series? Angels/Dodgers? Tigers/Cardinals again?

12:24
Dan Szymborski: probably Dodgers or Cards versus Tigers.

12:24
Dan Szymborski: Though Dodgers vs. Angels has its charms

12:25
Comment From Brandon
Cameron has the Tigers as very heavy favorites. Are Verlander’s projections primarily boosting their World Series odds? Isn’t it foolish to assume that he’s still as good as he was 2 years ago?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: ZiPS doesn’t think he’s as good and still likes their chances.

12:25
Comment From Mooking for Love
The potential for a Kershaw/Waino game 5 makes my balls tickle.

12:25
Comment From Alex
How long does it take to do 2015 ZIPS?

12:25
Dan Szymborski: Well, just from the calculation standpoint, 30 seconds a player makes it 16-18 hours of PC time.

12:26
Dan Szymborski: But there’s lots of prep (minor league translations, which necessitate minor league park factors, other various calculations to get started)

12:26
Comment From Dan
2015 Julio Urias zips, you know you want to

12:26
Dan Szymborski: He will get one.

12:26
Comment From Pennsy
How on Earth can you put Ryan Zimmerman at 3B when Anthony Rendon plays there and has shown one of the best arms at the hot corner in the league? Zimmerman should start at 1B in the playoffs if he starts at all, LaRoche has been a decidedly average player all year.

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I’d ideally sit LaRoche against lefties and put Zimmerman there, but given the choice (and Zimmerman’s now against playing anything but 3rd in playoffs), I’d rather him at 3rd and Rendon at 2nd than Zim on the bench.

12:27
Comment From Jordan Zimmerman
the Nats have me for one more year at $12 million, Do I top 5/$100 million in the FA market?

12:27
Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:27
Comment From Dan
do you think Shane Greene can be a middle of rotation time with continued refinement? His advanced numbers were way better in MLB than ever in the minors.

12:27
Dan Szymborski: Middle-of-rotation type seems reasonable.

12:27
Comment From Stephen
Is there data that suggests player play better in their last contract year? VMart, Lester, Cruz, etc all played extremely well.

12:27
Dan Szymborski: I have not found such. Players do not outperform their ZiPS in contract years.

12:28
Comment From Mike
Earlier in the season I asked if you would rather have a healthy Michael Pineda or Zack Wheeler and you said Wheeler. Has your mind changed?

12:28
Dan Szymborski: I think so, but not by a huge amount. But I’d still rather have Wheeler overall.

12:28
Comment From neal
aren’t people saying the A’s could make a run ignoring that their under-performance could be due more to injuries than randomness? I don’t think it’s ridiculous to say they are maybe not as good as their run differential and they may be significantly worse at this moment in time than they were during the season

12:29
Dan Szymborski: The noise eats the signal.

12:29
Comment From Beane is God
Billy Beane got a lot of flack for trading Russell, McKinney, and Cespedes for two short-term, win-now SPs. But isn’t it safe to say now that those two trades literally saved the A’s season? They limped into the playoffs by a game or two and would have undoubtedly had a much worse record without Lester and Samardzija down the stretch. This seems like another classic case of Beane being so ahead of the game that his greatness is under-appreciated. Where are all the articles about how Beane successfully diagnosed and treated his club’s future problem at a time when everyone seemed to think that nothing could go wrong with the first-place A’s?

12:30
Dan Szymborski: Yes, with Yoenis Cespedes on the team instead of Jon Lester, the A’s are watching the Mariners play tomorrow.

12:30
Dan Szymborski: OMG CESPEDES TRADE RUINED TEH SEASON is lazy analysis.

12:31
Comment From Mike
Why does WAR like Josh Donaldson so much?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: That’s an easy one – a 129 wRC+ and 15 runs above average defensively at 3rd.

12:32
Comment From Mike
Did Felix lock down the CY yesterday?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: I suspect he already had it, but it won’t hurt.

12:32
Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame
I can’t ever see Munenori Kawasaki without thinking of those bizarre 80s commercials for “Kawasaki One Man Jams!!” (Or was it “One Man Band”?) Regardless, I think it’s fitting, given his personality.

12:32
Dan Szymborski: It was definitely One-Man Jams.

12:32
Dan Szymborski: I’ll find the commercial in the next efw questions.

12:32
Comment From Mike
Cueto or Waino who’s better?

12:32
Dan Szymborski: Wainwright

12:32
Comment From Mike
Would Sale’s #’s rival Kershaws if he was in the NL?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: His 2014 would for sure. Kershaw still projected better.

12:33
Comment From Bureau of Engraving and Printing
Should the penny be eliminated from circulation?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Yes

12:33
Comment From The Oriole Bird
I know there’s more to the postseason than starting pitching, but it’s hard not to look at Scherzer/Price/Verlander(?) and be at least somewhat intimidated. Right?

12:33
Dan Szymborski: Correct. You should be worried about facing the Tigers pitching.

12:33
Comment From Guest
Are the Cubs really a couple of free agent pitchers away from competing, or am I a hundred gallons of liquor short of being ready to watch them next year?

12:34
Dan Szymborski: I don’t think it’s an alcohol problem, though you could have an unrelated alcohol problem. The Cubs may be relevant next year

12:34
Comment From Mike
Over/Under 3 10th place MVP votes for Derek Jeter

12:34
Dan Szymborski: Under

12:34
Dan Szymborski: I think that’s too crazy even for the worst MVP voters. If the Yankees had made the playoffs, he might get a couple

12:34
12:34
Dan Szymborski: That’s the commercial for the Kawasaki One-Man Jam

12:35
Comment From Natitude Adjuster
I realize even thinking about this is silly, but could Billy Beane’s job actually be in jeopardy if they lose this play-in game?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: No.

12:35
Comment From Mike
How much faith do you have in Tanaka going into next year?

12:35
Dan Szymborski: Faith in abilities, much. Injury, not so much. Hopefully they keep a solid eye on his arm in the offseason

12:36
Comment From Locke
Do you expect a bounceback in 2015 for Koji Uehara?

12:36
Dan Szymborski: Bounceback? You’re greedy if you think anybody’s a 1.50 ERA pitching going forward.

12:36
Comment From You Cannot Fight in Here, This Is the WAR Room
Is it slightly annoying to hear people call the Baltimore/Washington potential matchup the “Beltway Series”? Like… people know that there is not *one* beltway that goes around both cities, right?

12:37
Dan Szymborski: Well, they both *have* beltways.

12:37
Dan Szymborski: I’ve been calling it the Parkway World Series, but most people aren’t familiar with the BW Parkway.

12:38
Comment From 1990JaromirJagr
i was shocked to see espn has the cy young rankings for the AL at kluber 1, Scherzer 2, felix 3. those are out of order right? felix isnt behind scherzer

12:38
Dan Szymborski: The Cy Young predictor is a statistical predictor.

12:38
Dan Szymborski: Given that I helped the guys get the formula implemented correctly, I’m pretty sure that its correct.

12:38
Comment From Darth Stout
The Cubs would forfeit the 45th overall DP to sign Scherzer. Sign Max, sign Lester, 2015 playoffs?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: With Scherzer *and* Lester, the team would be extremely interesting

12:39
Comment From Pennsy
Is access to playoffs enough parity for small-market teams, or do we need to wait and see if a team with a lower payroll actually wins the WS? Royals, A’s, Pirates et al have made it but will that be moot if one of the LA teams just ends up taking home the trophy, as a high-payroll team nearly always has since the 90’s?

12:39
Dan Szymborski: Well, the thing is that there should be a great correlation or players aren’t paid in a manner commensurate with contributions.

12:39
Dan Szymborski: But you’re mixing up small markets and small payroll.

12:40
Dan Szymborski: Since when are the Cardinals a big market team? They leverage their small market very well but that doens’t make them big market, no matter their payroll

12:41
Comment From Dan
Why did Zips miss so badly on Kiermaier’s defense, especially when it was pretty on about Inciarte

12:41
Dan Szymborski: You’re always going to have misses – defensive numbers are extremely volatile.

12:42
Comment From semperty
Do the Reds move a SP this offseason, or are they willing to lose one to free agency in a win-now mode?

12:42
Dan Szymborski: The Reds are going to do next-to-nothing.

12:42
Dan Szymborski: They’re going to tread water and hope 2015 is better.

12:43
Comment From Dan
would it have been bad for the Dodgers to have given Urias a September callup for a few meaningless one inning stints to see if he could be a potential K-Rod exception/pen depth type.

12:44
Dan Szymborski: That would be pretty aggressive, he just turned 18 a month ago after all. K-Rod was a few years older and had been dominating in the high minors.

12:45
Dan Szymborski: And remember, they would have had to have already added him to the playoff roster.

12:45
Dan Szymborski: err 40-man roster.

12:45
Dan Szymborski: for the playoffs.

12:45
Comment From Franks and or Beans
But the entire post announcing the chat is just the chat window.

12:45
Dan Szymborski: and David wrote that post.

12:45
Comment From Mike
What 1st round series are you most looking forward to?

12:45
Dan Szymborski: Baltimore vs. Detroit.

12:46
Comment From dbet
I have a Szymborski break for too long…why does real life always get in the way of fun?

12:46
Dan Szymborski: What’s a Szymborski break? Lunchtime drinking?

12:46
Comment From Pennsy
Washington-Baltimore series should obviously be the MARC Brawl. The train goes straight to Camden Yards!

12:46
Dan Szymborski: You could do that too.

12:46
Comment From Mike
Even Lester is ahead of Scherzer in the CY race.

12:46
Comment From Ringtone Composer
For everyone’s benefit, here is Cameron’s summary of Lindbergh’s summary of what doesn’t matter in the playoffs: (1) Recent Performance Doesn’t Matter; (2) Experience Doesn’t Matter; and (3) Pitching Doesn’t Win Championships. You’re welcome?

12:46
Comment From 1990JaromirJagr
re: espn cy young predictor.Is scherzer more deserving than felix? in your opinion

12:47
Dan Szymborski: No, I’d give it to Felix.

12:47
Comment From Mike Francesa
Reasonable to expect .275 20 hrs in 130 games from ARod in 2015?

12:47
Dan Szymborski: No.

12:47
Comment From Jim
The Twins are mid-market right? They can’t really claim small market woes, especially with the new ballpark helping their financial cause, right?

12:47
Dan Szymborski: By market size, they’re 17th or 18th I think, so the middle third.

12:48
Comment From Tobias
Money on A’s or Royals?

12:48
Dan Szymborski: Oops. As I noted earlier, my official predictions will be at EPSN.

12:48
Comment From Pennsy
Consider for a moment how MLB has relied upon player development academies in Latin American countries over the last few decades to produce some of the game’s most recognizable stars, while at the same time Latino immigration into the United States continues to change the US cultural fabric for the better. Roberto Clemente was at the forefront of both, speaking about anti-Latino immigration while pioneering the concept of the Ciudad Deportivo. Shouldn’t MLB honor his legacy by retiring 21 across the league?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Probably not a bad idea, but MLB generally refrains from retiring numbers across baseball.

12:49
Comment From Pennsy
St. Louis isn’t a large market but they’re far from a small payroll team, either. They generally have a payroll in the top half of the league while teams like the A’s and Pirates try to win with payrolls toward the very bottom. No team has won a WS with a payroll outside the top half of the league, other than the Marlins, in decades.

12:49
Dan Szymborski: But payroll is a choice, whereas market size is not.

12:49
Comment From Jim
Any idea what the Boston GM be announcing at todays’ press conference?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: I actually don’t.

12:49
Comment From bob
is jake arrieta an ace moving forward?

12:49
Dan Szymborski: Too aggressive, I think.

12:50
Comment From 1990JaromirJagr
in Enos article about the players and who they voted for, i found Doolittle’s comments interesting about Trout and his butterfly effect on the lineup around him. Kinda cool to hear a pitcher admit that.

12:50
Comment From re Beltways
I’ve seen some people call it the “Beltways Series.” That at least acknowledges that there are multiple beltways involved. But then it just sounds dumb. And BTW, it’s probably faster to drive from DC–>NY than it is to drive from DC–>Baltimore.

12:51
Dan Szymborski: Wait, what? I know that’s a joke, but you get to Baltimore the same way you get to NY – you either use I-95 both ways (and BW parkway isn’t saving you time)

12:52
Comment From Fronk
Why do the Cardinals get a bonus pick?

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Because they got one in the small market/small revenue lottery.

12:52
Comment From JBD
I remember that you recently said you disliked the word “randomness” as an explainer. Do you mean that because people misinterpret it as “stuff we don’t understand”–or because you really don’t think it is correct?

12:52
Dan Szymborski: Did I say I disliked the word randomness? I usually say I dislike the word luck.

12:52
Comment From 1990JaromirJagr
@Jim where did you hear about the red sox presser?

12:53
Comment From Ben
J. Zimmerman, Over or under 7/175 as a free agent?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Under

12:53
Comment From semperty
Reports are that Gardy isn’t going to stay in Minnesota for long. Any chance I should get my hopes up that the Royals dump Yost to get Ron?

12:53
Dan Szymborski: Don’t think Gardenhire is *that* exciting, though I’d rather almost anyone to Yost.

12:53
Comment From STiVo
I can’t believe the Yankees are going into 2015 with ARod likely on the roster. This is insane, right? Like, he’s probably going to: (1) be bad at baseball; and (2) lead to a media-fueled circus? It’d be one thing if he were expected to be awesome.

12:54
Dan Szymborski: For non-Yankees fans, it’s going to be very amusing to watch.

12:55
Comment From Re: Beltway Series
While technically incorrect, the fact is that I-95 is part of both cities’ beltways, and there’s only about 20 mins separating the two.

12:55
Dan Szymborski: You’re getting from 495 to 695 in 20 minutes? How?

12:55
Comment From dbet
Szymborski Break(n) – Having an extended period of time without an interaction with Dan or not reading any of his writing. See also, being sad.

12:56
Comment From re Beltways
Wait… I meant “fly” to NY from DC… Not “drive.” Duh.

12:56
Comment From neal
Who’s going to be the biggest 2015 free agent landmine?

12:56
Dan Szymborski: Nelson Cruz.

12:56
Comment From Mookie Betts
When is the trade deadline lifted? Can I get traded to the Orioles, please?

12:57
Dan Szymborski: I’m not positive on the technical date. I *think* it’s after the final game of the WS, when the last seasonal waiver period ends, but I’m not positive.

12:57
Comment From Pennsy
How getting from 495 to 695 in twenty miniutes? Diplomatic plates.

12:58
Comment From AndrewY
Given that the two other players to take extended vacations from baseball had terrible, terrible years, is there any chance that the Yanks rethink their ARod plans between now and spring training?

12:58
Dan Szymborski: No, I think they’re all-in with him.

12:58
Comment From Jim
Royals fans…you can take Gardy even if you keep Yost…please do, in fact.

12:58
Comment From Jim
just answering another person’s question: ‘General manager Ben Cherington was expected to address the status of the coaching staff when he met with reporters later Monday.’

12:58
Comment From Vince
I think we’re reaching pretty hard for a theme. I-75 goes through both Detroit and Atlanta. Big Friggin’ Deal.

12:59
Comment From JBD
I was referring to this statement re “randomness.” “Dan Szymborski: I hate to use the word random, but it’s something that at the MLB level *acts*as if it was random.” Upon re-reading, I realize you’re not saying you don’t like randomness as an explainer.

12:59
Dan Szymborski: I hate luck more (for the same reason). A lot of things that appear random aren’t *really* random or even pseudo-random.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Like coin flips. Coin flips aren’t random. The result is determined by definable physical factors, it’s just that our eyes and brains can’t calculate those on the fly, so it *acts* as random in the context of a human observer. But you can fairly easily make a machine that flips a coin heads each time.

1:01
Comment From JBD
The point about randomness that’s lost on most people is that many things that *don’t* look random include a substantial heaping of randomness.

1:01
Comment From kris
why do people care so much about such inane things. arguing over beltways?

1:01
Dan Szymborski: Because we like themes.

1:01
Dan Szymborski: And storylines.

1:03
Dan Szymborski: It’s more fun for Bobby Thomson’s home run to have been the Shot Heard Round the World rather than The Home Run That Caused the Giants to Advance to the 1951 World Series.

1:03
Comment From Guest
who is your least favorite espn employee?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Dan Szymborski. Real dumbass.

1:03
Comment From semperty
Where does the I-70 series rank on your list of WS preferences?

1:03
Dan Szymborski: Eh, I-70 goes a long way.

1:04
Comment From semperty
I guess I-70 could be a Baltimore/St. Louis series…I hadn’t even thought about that.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: I-70 ends right at Baltimore, too.

1:05
Dan Szymborski: I drive between Baltimore and western Ohio on I-70 quite frequently

1:05
Dan Szymborski: (though I prefer taking the I-68/I-79 route in the middle)

1:05
Comment From RE: Presidents
Do you think Teddy will coast through to the finals on reputation alone? Gerald Ford was an All-American Center for Michigan, when they won the National Championship!

1:06
Dan Szymborski: Teddy vs. Jackson is my expected matchup

1:06
Comment From Art Vandelay
“The Bay Bridge Series” is a pretty cool name though. As is “Battle of the Bay”

1:06
Comment From Natitude Adjuster
Teams on or about I-95 by my count: NYY, NYM, BAL, WAS, BOS, MIA, PHI,

1:07
Comment From Guest
I-70 series would be a rematch of 1985.

1:07
Comment From Hrkac Circus
It’s not Gardy Twins fans should be most worried about. I think it’s still Rick Anderson. He is what he is, and that’s a pitching coach with a style stuck in the 90s. Strikeouts are extremely important now.

1:07
Comment From kris
I like storylines too. i was referring to people getting upset over the fact that there may or may not be a beltway present in baltimore

1:07
:

1:07
Dan Szymborski: On that note, time to log off for another week!

1:07
Comment From Natitude Adjuster
kris, there is definitely a beltway in Baltimore. It is not, however, shared with DC’s beltway.

1:07
Comment From Jono
The Baldwin call on Fillmore is tremendous. Did he win an opening round fight? what other president could possibly have lost to him?

1:08
Dan Szymborski: This was Fillmore’s opening round.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: He wasn’t part of the play-in bracket.

1:08
Dan Szymborski: I’m guessing the outcome was not a surprise.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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  1. David says:

    If the O’s and the Nats face off in the World Series, it should be called the MASN series. And even if the Nats win, the O’s will retain 70% of the rings.