Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/11/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Should be a pretty interesting day of baseball.

Dave Cameron: Let’s grab some questions for a bit before it starts.

Dave Cameron: I will note that I might not go to the full hour today, since I’ll be live-blogging CLE-NYY tonight.

Dave Cameron: Gotta save some chatting energy.

Matt: Did Dusty lie the whole time or was Strasburg shamed into this?

Dave Cameron: I would guess Stras woke up to a bunch of stories about him being soft and decided he didn’t want to deal with that again, so now he’s going to take the mound to try and change the narrative.

Dave Cameron: Assuming he was actually sick, and that wasn’t some story they were telling, this seems like a bad idea.

Dave Cameron: The Nats have to win 2 games. It doesn’t really matter which one Stras starts.

LegallyEagle: Which team would the Dodgers prefer facing in the NLCS?

Dave Cameron: The Nats and Cubs are both really good, so they probably don’t have a strong preference.

The Average Sports Fan: What team benefits from the rain out more?

Dave Cameron: Nationals.

HappyFunBall: So Roark as long as he can. Gio if needed. Scherzer for an inning if needed.  If the Nats use ALL THE PITCHERS today, Stras be be healthy enough to go 9 tomorrow…

Dave Cameron: Now now Stras is starting, so it’s probably Stras for 4-5, then Scherzer for 1, then Madson/Doolittle for the last 3 if they have the lead.

TKDC: Is Baker cooked if they lose today?

Dave Cameron: No.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: The Red Sox fired John Farrell. Dombrowski’s last managerial hire was Ausmus. Should Red Sox fans be worried? Should fans of rivals be celebrating?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

joe: who wins game 5 tonight and why?

Dave Cameron: Kluber + home field means CLE has to be the favorite.

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: Is Strasburg getting a bad rap here? Dusty Baker didn’t do him any favors and it just feels like the team has kind of thrown him under the bus.

Dave Cameron: The Nats didn’t handle this well by having so many different stories.

PTBNL: Any predictions on who gets the Boston managerial job?

Dave Cameron: Ausmus obvious candidate.

Bobert: What does it mean for the Indians if the Yankees win today?

Dave Cameron: Their season is over.

Snarfle: Please speculate for our amusement: what percent of teams do you think engage in some level of international shadiness to acquire talent?

Dave Cameron: 60%

stever20: what are your thoughts on Farrell being let go by Boston?

Dave Cameron: It was expected.

Dave Cameron: Dombrowski always wanted his own guy.

stever20: Gio probably is a better option than Roark, no?

Dave Cameron: Not a significant difference between them.

Bobert: I feel like Arrieta will really be on his game today, just to improve his resumé.

Dave Cameron: I think if he could choose to be on his game, he already would have.

TB31: “The Nats have to win 2 games. It doesn’t really matter which one Stras starts.”

Yes it does? Because Gio can’t throw today, but can throw tomorrow. The difference is Roark vs Gio here.

Dave Cameron: And that’s not a real difference.

ECinDC: So wouldn’t Scherzer pitch tomorrow now?

Dave Cameron: He’s not going to be able to throw much on 2 days rest

Ed in Iowa: If the Marlins trade Stanton and throw in x number of dollars, is that paid per year such that if he opts out in 2020 then they are free of that obligation?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m sure Miami will only offer to cover money after the opt-out.

Dave Cameron: Or at least, a huge chunk of the offset will be after it.

Scherzer? I hardly know her : You have inherited a franchise. All MLB players are available via draft. Mike Trout and Bryce Harper are off the board. You are taking a position player. Who is it?

Dave Cameron: Correa

Bobert: It’s funny how amazing the Nats look on paper, but how they can never seem to win as much as their individual players suggest.  Management and the bullpen are really important.

Dave Cameron: They’re down 2-1 because they have a .500 OPS this series.

Dave Cameron: That isn’t management or bullpen.

Tanner: All else being equal, do you personally give NYY a slight (like 1%) bump in win probability for having won the last two games over CLE?

Dave Cameron: No

gump: What’s the current view of Boston’s analytics group? I know when Dombrowski took over several people left for Arizona, and then more left this offseason. Are they still regarded as a good group?

Dave Cameron: They’ve been behind the curve for a while now.

Josh: Do you buy the narrative that it will become increasingly difficult for smaller market teams to compete given the market efficiency large market teams now employ?

Dave Cameron: To some degree, yes. I think the effect is overstated, but we’re definitely heading towards a time where it will be tougher for lower-revenue teams to keep up given that the big boys are now better run.

PTBNL: Thoughts on Boston exploring trade offers for Eduardo Rodriguez? Could try to get a much-needed power bat, and should have Sale/Price/Pomeranz/Porcello/Wright for the rotation in 2018.

Dave Cameron: You need more than five starters.

Dave Cameron: And the idea that the team needs a “power bat” is silly.

Dave Cameron: You need good players. It doesn’t really matter that much what kind of good players they are.

Dave Cameron: 2 minute break

stever20: what are your thoughts on how the lineup was going to look for the Nats yesterday, with everyone back to their normal regular season positions?

Dave Cameron: Batting Werth 2nd and Rendon 6th is dumb.

Andrew: Should the Jays sign Lorenzo Cain and flip Kevin Pillar for an infielder like Joe Panik?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know how that would help much.

Bobert: Truly, not who should win, but who will win the NL MVP?

Dave Cameron: I think Stanton will win. I don’t know that he gets the most first place votes, but I think he’s top 2 on almost every ballot.

Dave Cameron: Other guys who get 1st place votes could be as low as 5-7 on other ballots.

MadduxGlavineSmoltz: Hey Dave, please give your thoughts on where the braves should go from here?  A lot of rumors are than Moore will sign on, and Glavine will be a part of the process as well.. How do you feel about that?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be thrilled with that if i was a Braves fan. But I wouldn’t have been thrilled with what Coppy was doing either.

gump: Curious as to what you meant by Boston being behind the curve: do you mean the team’s analysis isn’t as advanced as in the past, or that they aren’t being listened to as much as in the past. If it’s the second, care to guess how many playoff apps with no series wins Dombrowski makes before being let go?

Dave Cameron: Their analytics department has been one of the smallest, most underfunded in baseball for years, even before Dombrowski got there.

Dave Cameron: When everyone else was staffing up, hiring developers, and modernizing their infrastructure, the Red Sox stayed put and got passed by.

PTBNL: I think it’s fair to say that a playoff team that ran a 92 wRC+ needs power hitting, but I get your point.

Dave Cameron: A team with a 92 wRC+ needs better offensive performance overall.

Dave Cameron: But lots of guys you’d expect to do better next year regardless of outside acquisition.

Bat: Dave, I’m a Mets fan and I’d like to see Joey Cora or Gabe Kapler as their next manager.  Without knowing anything more than you know now, if you were running a team with a vacancy who’d you choose as your team’s new manager (and no current manager could switch teams)?

Dave Cameron: If you want a Cora, you should want Alex, not Joey.

Dave Cameron: And based on what I’ve heard, I’d probably give Dave Martinez a shot.

Gabe the Babe: Is Gabe Kapler still with the Dodgers? Think he’s a viable candidate in Boston?

Dave Cameron: Yes, no.

Dank Aaron: I know that you hate the Braves, but what is the floor for the penalties they are looking at? Banned from entire signing periods?

Dave Cameron: Yes, I’m a noted Braves hater because I think public prospect rankings have an established trend of overrating risky pitching prospects.

Dave Cameron: But yeah, I’d guess the Braves won’t be allowed to sign anyone internationally next year, and maybe for more than one year.

Macho Man Sandy Ravage: Will we get more Pitch Talks podcasts with you and Carson? I need my Danny Jansen updates

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s just on hiatus while we get Carson’s baby to be a reasonable human being and get through the postseason. It will come back.

New Bork: Is Dusty Baker’s reputation as an in-game manager worse than the merits of his decisions warrant? It seems to me he is just easy to criticize because he so clearly bases his decisions on ridiculous factors.

Dave Cameron: I think people have been criticizing Dusty for so long now that it’s just reflexive

A cat: Rumblings that SF wants to move Belt due to injuries and contract kicking in. Where would he land? BOS, TEX?

Dave Cameron: Not Dombrowski’s type of guy.

Dave Cameron: Maybe Seattle? I could see Dipoto being interested.

Joe: Are the Diamondbacks a one year thing, or does their starting staff give them 90+ win potential going forward?

Dave Cameron: If Godley is legitimately this good, then they’ve got a shot to be good again next year.

PTBNL: Boston was: 26th in slugging, 28th in ISO, 27th in home runs, 13th in avg, 11th in OBP. Pretty clear that their contact hitting/plate discipline was not the problem, was specifically extra base hits and home runs that were lacking.

Dave Cameron: Except you don’t get evaluated on number of extra base hits when the games end.

Dave Cameron: You can out-single/defense/pitch your opponent and the runs still count.

Dave Cameron: Of course, if you can improve a weakness and upgrade your team, you should, but the first question was about swapping Rodriguez for a power hitter, and I don’t see that making the team significantly better. It would just make them different.

Gary Sanchez Jr. Jr.: Belt – how about NYY?

Dave Cameron: Nah, they’re sticking with Bird.

Tanner: What’s Dombrowski’s type?

Dave Cameron: Toolsy

joe: How do the Yankees win tonight?

Dave Cameron: They jump on Kluber again, bullpen pitches 7+ innings

Ed in Iowa: I hope that was just a babies being babies comment and not that there is something badly wrong with Carson’s baby

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Carson’s baby is fine, beyond being a newborn.

Dave Cameron: Sorry about that, my internet died

Macho Man Sandy Ravage: Would the easiest solution in boston be not having Pablo and having Devers all year?

Dave Cameron: That will help a lot.

Joe: Yankees bullpen or Cleveland’s?

Dave Cameron: Yankees

Ray Liotta as Shoeless Joe: I don’t think of Victor or J.D. Martinez as being particularly “toolsy.”

Dave Cameron: Victor had an elite hit tool for a guy with average power

Dave Cameron: J.D. has 70 power

Josh: If you were commissioner for a day and could implement one change in MLB, what would it be?

Dave Cameron: Throwing at a batter’s head is a 30 game suspension.

0Dub: what is CC’s leash tonight? twice through order? less?

Dave Cameron: Less

Dave Cameron: Unless he’s throwing a perfect game, I don’t see any reason he goes more than 3 IP.

Dave Cameron: Green, Robertson, Kahnle, Chapman can easily give you 6, probably 7, maybe 8.

Dave Cameron: No real reason to push CC

Dan: O/U 2% chance that Dombrowski trades for Miguel Cabrera

Dave Cameron: I would bet that some kind of Hanley/Miggy trade at least gets thrown around

Dave Cameron: Don’t know that it happens, but i bet a conversation does

Bobert: Who is best positioned in the World Series at this point?

Dave Cameron: Dodgers

Dave Cameron: Okay, going to wrap it up a little early today.

Dave Cameron: I’ll be back at 5 for CLE-NYY live blog.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.