Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/19/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. Who else is excited to see the guy with Jerry Blevins fastball start against the Blue Jays today?

Dave Cameron: Let’s chat about the playoffs, or if your team is out of it, the coming offseason.

@outfieldgrass24: Dave, thanks for the chat and welcome to Oregon! Are you surprised the D-backs were able to pull off the Hazen move? Also, loved your piece yesterday. Which of the two paths you described would you be most inclined to go down?

Dave Cameron: Not that surprised; as much talk as there was about people not wanting to take that job, there are still only 30 guys in the game who get to make the final call on baseball ops decisions, and people want those jobs. Hazen had no path to that job in Boston, given that Dombrowski isn’t going anywhere, and I think the evidence is growing at this point that the guys who stuck around under Dombrowski didn’t feel all that welcome. Since DD got to Boston, they’ve now lost a good chunk of the high ranking guys who initially stuck around.

Dave Cameron: In terms of what I think Arizona will do this winter, I think they’ll take a conservative path. I imagine he’ll try to rebuild the bullpen, improve the defense, and look for depth pieces, but I think they’ll push the big “blow it up” decision down the road a year.

Greg: As a Braves fan, watching Javy Baez break out this season reminded me of multiple Cubs writers reporting that a Baez-for-Shelby Miller swap was close last offseason. Seeing how it played out and the return Atlanta eventually got for him, would you rather have Baez or the haul from Arizona?

Dave Cameron: The Arizona haul, easily. Inciarte is already a better player than Baez, and Swanson looks like he could be a similar caliber player, even if maybe a little less exciting.

Bret: The Jays have a lot of similar hitters, and in some ways, Cleveland has exploited that by limiting fastballs to hitters that really love fastballs. When looking ahead, that suggests an area the team could improve this winter is by adding players who succeed better against breaking balls, changeups, etc. Is that right, though? After all, when you look at stringing together hits and stacking a lineup, there’s merit to having players with the same skills as well, in the same way you want your best hitters hitting together rather than spreading them out.

Dave Cameron: You don’t want to overload on one type of player, if that type of player is flawed, because that flaw can be exploited on a wide scale. But I don’t know that I totally buy that the Jays can’t hit off-speed stuff. That would have been figured out before now.

Bob: Dodgers or Cubs, and why?

Dave Cameron: Well, easy to take the team up 2-1 at this point, but the Cubs are still a great team, so it wouldn’t be surprising at all to see them take 3/4. Slight edge to LA, but I expect a few more good games.

Slew: Given the health and rest(Kluber) of the Indians’ pitching staff, are the Jays favored in every game for the rest of the series?

Dave Cameron: They’re big favorites today, but I can’t see how they’d be strong favorites in a game in Cleveland. Maybe 52/48 or something but those games are toss-ups.

The Average Sports Fan: Bowden wrote that salaries for 3-5 starters are going to be depressed with that salary reallocated to relief aces. Do you agree?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think we’ll see a depression of salaries for quality starters — Lackey, Happ, Estrada all turned out quite well among last winter’s crop, after all — but I do think reliever salaries are going to go up again this winter. Chapman, Jansen, and Melancon are going to get huge deals.

Otis Redding: Who do you see playing 1B/DH for the Blue Jays next year?

Eric: Do you sit Addison Russell and move Baez to SS, Zobrist to 2nd, and Contreras to LF to get the Cubs offense going, or is that too much to give up defensively?

Dave Cameron: I don’t overreact to small sample postseason numbers. Best lineup includes Russell.

BK: Dave, what’s the worst sports injury you’ve ever suffered?

Dave Cameron: I got knocked out after getting hit between the eyes with a baseball while walking out onto the field between innings in little league.

Dave Cameron: Was walking out to third base, taking off my batting gloves, and next thing I know, I was laying on the dugout bench.

Stevil: How would the trade market change if teams like the White Sox, Rays, and Diamondbacks were to all rebuild? Who would benefit the most, apart from the Yankees? Thanks

Dave Cameron: Well, that’s not happening, but any win-now team would love to see the supply of talent available increase this winter. I think a team like the Astros would be thrilled if prices for high-end players came down, since I expect them to be pretty active this winter.

Paul: Sullivan said in his podcast that he didn’t want the Cubs to win because something would be lost if the Lovable Losers actually won. I haven’t yet listened to yours this week, but do you agree? I was pulling for them before, but I think he has a point…

Dave Cameron: I don’t think I want to root for the continued misery of a fanbase in order to continue a narrative about the sport. Go Cubs.

Sirras: What do scouts and other evaluators mean when they say a player has a short swing or is quick to the ball as opposed to having a long swing?

Dave Cameron: Long swings are usually uppercut swing paths that lead to lots of whiffs. Short swings are flatter and often produce opposite field contact. Think Russell Branyan vs Derek Jeter.

Zonk: What direction do you think the White Sox should take this offseason? If you wrote an article about it, would it sound very similar to the one you wrote about the D-Backs?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they’re probably in a similar position. Give yourself one more first half to see if you can contend with an upgraded group of role players, and if not, sell big at the deadline.

Q-Ball: Do you have any quibble with how Maddon has managed the playoffs? Or, is the result the last couple days just “baseball”?

Dave Cameron: What was he supposed to do? They didn’t score any runs against Kershaw, Jansen, and Rich Hill. Those guys are all great.

Erik: The last two games demonstrate quite clearly why FanGraphs had the Dodgers as a slight favorite over the Cubs: Kershaw and Hill. Do you think the Cubs will be able to get a win off of either of them to win in 7? With those two throwing as they are, this seems like one of the stronger 2-1 leads, even against the Cubs’ offense.

Dave Cameron: Well keep in mind that Washington hit Hill just fine last series, so it’s not like anyone is invincible. And the Cubs are an excellent team.

Q-Ball: Al Avila says “Changes are Coming” to the Tigers. They are going to spend less, get younger. No way that happens while also getting BETTER, is there? Are they at a point where they have to go backwards before going forwards?

Dave Cameron: The interesting thing about those comments is I don’t really know what they can do, honestly. You would think they’re not trading Miggy or Verlander. The Upton/Zimmerman contracts are underwater, so they can’t move either without eating money. There’s not going to be a big market for Victor Martinez. They could trade J.D. Martinez, I guess, but he’s not that expensive, and they don’t really have a replacement for him.

Q-Ball: Dayton Moore said pretty clearly the payroll has to go down in KC. Is this the end of the Royals contention window? Time to rebuild?

Dave Cameron: They’re going to take one more shot next year while they still have Cain/Moustakas/Hosmer. But I do think they trade Wade Davis, and they’re probably not going to be good enough to win without getting some huge improvements from other guys.

Zonk: Should the Cubs fall in the NLCS, do you feel like they are set-up for a long contention window? How long?

Dave Cameron: Regardless of what happens this series, the Cubs are as well setup as any team in baseball. Barring some catastrophic injuries, they’re going to be the class of the NL Central for the next few years at least.

JB: Why do the Cubs play Russell at SS when Baez is obviously the superior defender?

Dave Cameron: Because he’s not? I love watching Baez as much as everyone else, but being able to do the spectacular doesn’t automatically make him better at making all the plays that Russell can also make.

Erik: How would you rank the three dominant relievers left in the playoffs right now, Miller, Jansen, and Chapman?

Dave Cameron: Probably in that order.

Dave Cameron: Maybe Chapman ahead of Jansen, but his command problems are a little concerning sometimes.

Clayton Kershaw: How many innings are you expecting from Julio Urias?

Dave Cameron: 4.

Zonk: What should the Nats do at catcher this offseason, given their contention window? Is McCann a good fit for them?

Dave Cameron: I would assume Ramos will take a one year, incentive laden deal from them in order to rebuild his value and try to get a big deal next winter. So they’ll probably need a guy who could start for a few months, then backup Ramos down the stretch. They might be okay with Lobaton in that role.

Ronnie: Who gets more money this offseason, Kenley or Aroldis? Any chance one enterprising team signs both?

Dave Cameron: Chapman gets more money. No draft pick attached, throws harder.

Joe: Isn’t the “Cubs can’t hit in the playoffs” narrative extremely lazy? So far, they’ve faced 3 Cy Young candidates (Kershaw, Cueto, Bumgarner), a fourth pitcher who would’ve been a Cy Young candidate if he’d been healthy enough to throw 50 more innings (Hill), one of the top closers in the game (Jansen) and an inconsistent pitcher with tons of raw talent who threw maybe the best game of his career in the NLDS (Moore). When they have faced Samardzija, Maeda, and the non-Jansen parts of the bullpens, they’ve been fine.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s exceptionally lazy.

Dave Cameron: The Cubs are a great team. They’re playing another great team. They’re down 2-1 in a series in which they’ve been outscored by, what, two runs?

Crusty Juggler: The playoffs have been incredibly fun so far.

Dave Cameron: Agreed. Far more interesting than some other years.

Baloo: Re: The slide/tag issue, maybe this has already been suggested, but could a solution be to make only the moment-of-contact of a tag produce an out? This way the fielder cannot just hold his glove on the runner with the hope that he accidentally leaves the bag for a split-second, and off the top of my head, shouldn’t have any other negative side effects.

Dave Cameron: That’s an interesting idea. Essentially you’re telling the fielder you get one shot at tagging the guy out.

Erik: How detrimental would it be to use Miller the way he’s being used in the playoffs for the entire regular season? He’s pitched 9 innings in the Indians’ 7 playoff games, which would translate to 208 innings over a full season, placing him tied for 10th on this year’s IP leaderboard. Hardly an unreasonable amount for a major league pitcher. But would distributing a starter’s workload in this way be possible? Could you see it happening in the near future?

Dave Cameron: There’s a big difference between throwing 208 IP in relief versus 208 as a starter.

Dave Cameron: Bullpen playoff usage isn’t sustainable in the regular season.

Matt: How can the Cubs fix themselves before tonight?

Dave Cameron: 1. Don’t let the Dodgers start Kershaw or Hill.

Prich: JF is obviously treating this game as a Game 7, but with an off day tomorrow, should Francona also be willing to put extra strain on the bullpen? It gets a bit tricky with how much they pitched in Game 3, no..?

Dave Cameron: I would think that if Merritt keeps it close through 4, Miller/Allen should get six outs each, and then you figure out the 9th if you have a lead.

Jim Lonborg: Should we be concerned about an anti-analytic shift in the Red Sox front office?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I would be if I was a Boston fan. It’s not like Dombrowski is purging the staff of the analytics guys or anything, but the fact that so many of them are getting out when they have the chance probably says something about how much they feel like their voice is carrying weight under this regime.

Erik: What is more likely: 1) There happen to be a few dominant relievers in the game right now who were originally miscast as back of the rotation starters (Miller, Davis, etc.) but this is just a small sample size blip, or 2) Many/most back of the rotation starters would actually make dominant relievers?

Dave Cameron: I think there’s some overlap in the two groups; guys who are back-end starters because they lack a good pitch to get opposite hand hitters out or because they struggle the third time through the order would all likely be able to do well in relief. The back-end starters who throw 88 and don’t have an outpitch wouldn’t get as big a boost.

Rick Hahn: Sale for Urias/Austin Barnes/De Leon?

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers wouldn’t do that. Urias and Sale are probably not that far apart in trade value at this point.

Nick: How badly would Merritt need to get hit in order for the Indians to raise the white flag and keep

Dave Cameron: If he gives up 5 in the first inning, they might just tell him to wear it and punt today.

The A Train: If Andrew Miller keeps being Andrew Miller in the World Series (of course, assuming the Indians make it), do you think he’d have a shot at WS MVP?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

JD Blue: What should the Angels do this offseason? They are projected for 36 WAR, not far behind HOU at 39, but they still seem bad

Dave Cameron: That projection seems awfully optimistic to me.

Kendall: What do you expect out of Urias today? Would you start Kershaw tomorrow, or given workload so far, save him for a G6 either way (*if necessary* — can’t believe I’m saying that)?

Dave Cameron: If you’re down 3-1, you probably start Kershaw tomorrow so tha the has some chance of also pitching in relief in game 7. If it’s 2-2, give him the full rest start.

Frank: Can Hosmer’s ground ball rate be fixed? A guy as talented as Hosmer should be performing much better than this… right?

Dave Cameron: Maybe he’s just not as talented as people think? He’s a middling power first baseman.

Harry Sax: Your piece had a lot of talk about having good defenders to rebuild pitcher trade value. How is that really still a thing in 2017 with Statcast batted ball data? It only takes a couple of teams smart enough to realize that weakly-hit balls in the direction of statues are still weakly-hit balls to drive the trade return up to talent level instead of idiot-stat level.

Dave Cameron: A Greinke trade is going to require ownership to take on some money, and even in this day and age of better day and understanding of the value of defense, it’s still going to be very hard to sell an owner on taking on a huge contract if Greinke has a 4.xx ERA because Arizona’s defense sucks.

The Decadent Moose: Holliday is off the books. They’ve got a youngish OF so no real need to replace the money there. With Wainwraight coming off (and great young pitching) just as Harper hits free agency, do you think the Cardinals are in play?

Dave Cameron: Nope. That’s not their kind of move.

Justin: Dave, how competitive will the Rangers be next year? (Please say not at all. Your hate drives them to greater heights.)

Dave Cameron: They have the roster of a .500ish team. They could change that this winter if they make some big upgrades, but if they go into spring training with something like their current roster, they’ll need a lot of luck again to make the playoffs.

Dave Cameron: And i have no hate for the Rangers. I love Adrian Beltre more than anyone else. I simply don’t believe the Rangers figured out how to win one run games with Texas Magic, and without those one run wins, they were exactly what we said they were.

Prich: If the Fangraphs crew did a ‘Last Comic Standing’ competition, who would win? Better yet, who would be the first person eliminated?

Dave Cameron: Well Carson actually did stand up comedy for a while a few years back…

Dave Cameron: I think Appelman would be the first one eliminated. He’s not a big fan of public speaking.

Andrew: If Hazen wants to blow it up and move some/all of his best assets, do you think the Mets can/do make a run for Goldy? They can center the package around Dom Smith. Would adding Gsellman and Wheeler get it done? Or Maybe Gsellman and a high-upside but lower-level prospect like Wuilmer Beccera?

Dave Cameron: Did you really just ask if Domininc Smith and a mediocre pitching prospect or a guy with a bum shoulder would be enough for Paul Goldschmidt?

Rick Hahn: Kershaw and Jansen yes, but Rich Hill has been hittable lately. If they struggle against Urias tonight does the sky start falling in Chicago?

Dave Cameron: Rich Hill is an elite pitcher when healthy. Full stop.

jt: Can you rank in terms of trade value: Duda at 7mil, Bruce at 13 mil, Grandy at 15 mil. What could they fetch?

Dave Cameron: None of those three have much value at those prices.

Dave Cameron: You could probably salary dump them all for some fringe prospect, but no team is getting all that excited to acquire any of those.

Slew: Did the Indians make a MUCH better for Miller than the Cubs did for Chapman? They gave up more, but Miller is better and they have him for 2.5 times as long.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t think there’s any question that the Indians got the better deal. I think the Cubs messed up by not trading Schwarber for Miller.

Dave Cameron: But if they’re right about Schwarber being Lance Berkman or something, they’ll be fine with it.

Astros Fan: Will ownership finally open up the checkbook this offseason for a big FA? Or are we doomed to be a mid-market team?

Dave Cameron: Cespedes makes a lot of sense for them.

Netflix and Rich Hill: I was fortunate enough to get tickets to the game last night (NLCS). Rich Hill is a joy. The arm angles, the speed differential, the math tutor body language, the complete lack of any hint of athleticism until he gets into his wind up…as a cubs fan it was tough but still fun. No question, just Rich hill is good for baseball

Jesse: You really think the White Sox are going to make one more go at this? I see the reasoning, but it seems from Rick Hahn’s comments (reading between the lines) they’re going to pursue the rebuild route

Dave Cameron: I agree that his comments made it sound that way, but I’d also look at a very weak AL Central and be tempted to think that they could make one more run.

HappyFunBall: re: moment of contact tag … that would incentivize base runners to slide through the base entirely

Dave Cameron: Hmm, that’s true; it’d be tough to word the rule in such a way that allowed the fielder to re-tag the runner if he did go past the base.

Poonrod: LOL Inciarte is a better player than Baez. I don’t know if the statement itself or the way that you put it so definitively is more comical. Not to mention comparing a young guy to a peak player is a third level of silliness.

Dave Cameron: Ender Inciarte is all of two years older than Javier Baez. They’re both young. If you don’t realize that, right now, Inciarte is way better than Baez, then you don’t understand baseball.

Dave Cameron: You can get excited about Baez’s potential all you want, but Inciarte is clearly the superior player today.

Murdoc: Do you think the umps will be keeping a closer eye on Urias’ pick-off move tonight?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s no way Maddon doesn’t talk about it with them pregame.

Kristen: Is it too intrusive to ask how your recovery from leukemia is going?

Dave Cameron: I’m five years in remission, so at this point, I’m basically back to normal. I still have some small chance of recurrence and there’s always a chance that the chemo did some long-term damage to my body that could kill me, but at this point, my survival odds are around 95%.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for asking!

Julio Pepper: Should Indians trade Miller this off-season? They’d get more than they gave up.

Dave Cameron: They probably would, but if they want to contend again next year, keeping him is a good idea.

Zonk: I think you reversed the answer for Kershaw question…if the Dodgers are up 3-1 after tonight, you rest Kershaw. If the Cubs tie the series at 2-2, you go to him in game 5. Is that right?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s what I meant.

A. Reitz: Sale and Urias trade value is not that far apart. Sale is a Top 5 SP and proven. Urias is 20 years old and at this point, 2 years away from being anything close to as impactful as Sale and the chances of that, are slim. Please explain.

Dave Cameron: Most teams have long since moved past silly and useless terms like “proven”. Every player has risk; Sale’s is durability and the drop in strikeouts last year, while Urias’ is how well he’ll scale up to a full season workload. To pretend that one has risk and the other doesn’t is to ignore reality. Urias already projects as a +3 to +4 WAR pitcher for 2017, so while Sale is a little bit better in the short term, the gap between them will close between too long, and Urias will make nothing while Sale gets ~$15M per season, which gets taxed 50% if he’s on the Dodgers. The cost and age differences are real factors that teams take into account.

Justin: So you think a team that just finished with 95 wins, has Jon Daniels as their GM, will be getting an entire season of Yu Darvish next year, hopefully an entire season of Choo, and surely some better bullpen (can’t get any worse) while not losing anyone of note, will be a .500 team next year?

Dave Cameron: We’ve written enough about the Rangers here for you to know why they weren’t a real 95 win team this year.

Eric: In each of his last two healthy seasons (2014-2015), Duda was worth 3 WAR and had a wRC+ of above 130. That’s not worth $7M?

Dave Cameron: It’s worth $7M, but he just missed most of the year with a problem that probably isn’t going to get magically fixed, so it’s not worth that much more than $7M.

Matt: Regarding the Baez vs Inciarte discussion: Do you think potential upside (Baez in this case) is generally overvalued?

Dave Cameron: I think people vastly overstate their ability to identify a player’s actual ceilings. Kyle Hendricks and Jose Altuve are Cy Young and MVP candidates. Everyone’s ceiling is basically “great player”.

A. Reitz: RE: Sale vs. Urias. I understand the pay diff. but come on. “Sale is a little bit better short term”? Sale is a Top 5 SP. He’s a true ace. Depreciation of K’s or not this season, it seems unfair to assume he’s falling off a cliff either. Urias isn’t even a Top 50 SP going in to next season, and who knows what he’ll be 2-3 years from now. Right now, he’s a guy the Dodgers can “assume” will slot in as their 3rd or 4th best SP next season w/ the hopes of him living up to the hype.

Dave Cameron: You’re wildly underrating Julio Urias.

Dave Cameron: Okay, on that note, off to do some writing. And then watch some baseball today.

Dave Cameron: We’ll do it again next week.