Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/20/14

11:43
Dave Cameron: So, due to a scheduling conflict, you won’t get your regular Monday Szymborski fix. He and I traded days this week, though, so if you’re missing your Dan time, you don’t have to wait another week. That does mean you’re stuck with me today, though.

12:00
Dave Cameron: Okay, we’ll get this chat started.

12:01
Comment From a Guest
Thanks for chatting Dan! What can we make of Jake Peavy’s free agency after a bifurcated year? 3/40 about right, and if so who bites at that price?

12:03
Dave Cameron: I’m not Dan, and I don’t think Peavy will get anything close to 3/40. Steamer projects him as about a +1 WAR pitcher for 2015, and he just posted the worst xFIP of his career.

12:03
Dave Cameron: Wild guess: I’d probably think he’s in line for something like the 2/20ish deal that Arroyo/Hudson/others got last winter.

12:04
Comment From _David_
Does your discussion of the Royals and the value of mediocrity make the Cano signing look any better for the Mariners?

12:05
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think there’s a case to be made that sustained decentness is probably more valuable than I gave it credit for last winter. I still don’t love the move, especially given the ramifications on the team’s glut of decent middle infielders, but it’s probably a little more justifiable to set a goal of being an 85-90 win team than it used to be.

12:06
Comment From Vslyke
What would a potential Justin Upton trade look like? Would the Braves be better off waiting until the trade deadline next year?

12:07
Dave Cameron: Seems likely that Upton is what he is now, and that’s a nice +3 win player who probably won’t become the star that he was projected to be. How much is a team really going to give up for one year of a good-not-great player at a $15M salary?

12:07
Comment From Gabes
Which Chicago team wins more games in 2015, Cubs or Sox?

12:07
Dave Cameron: Cubs.

12:08
Comment From _David_
Doesn’t it seem like Daniel Cabrera would have been a relief ace?

12:08
Dave Cameron: Relievers have to throw strikes too.

12:08
Comment From Guest
Do you think Lincecum sees any moderately high leverage innings in Ws?

12:08
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t expect him to pitch a single inning, barring a blowout.

12:08
Comment From AA
Should we expect an outfield to have a higher WAR stemming from defense if they play on a team with pitchers who give up a lot of flyballs? Can the same be said for an infield on a team with pitchers whom give up lots of groundballs? Could we expect WAR to overvalue a player due to them making more routine plays than a similar ball player due to the position they play and the type of pitcher that is on their team?

12:10
Dave Cameron: You don’t really get much defensive credit for making a routine play, so having 250 routine fly balls hit to you instead of 150 isn’t going to change your WAR much at all. A wider distributions of balls in play towards the OF or IF will give them the opportunity to increase or decrease their defensive value, but it would only really matter at the extremes, where a guy like Andrelton Simmons could benefit from more opportunities, or a guy like Adam Dunn could be exposed by having the ball hit at him more often. For a player who is closer to the league average in terms of turning balls into outs, more chances isn’t going to move his rating much.

12:11
Comment From Dan
Holy shit are the Royals going to win the World Series? Will Ned Yost win manager of the year? Will Dayton Moore leave for Atlanta? This is the most ridiculous season.

12:12
Dave Cameron: Despite the underdog narrative, our projections have the Royals as significant favorites, so yeah, it’s certainly possible. Manager of the Year voting was due at the end of the regular season, though, so I don’t expect Yost to beat out Buck Showalter.

12:12
Comment From shawn
How do you view the Price trade a few months removed now? I really hope that Franklin turns into a useful piece but he seems to be treading water in AAA.

12:12
Dave Cameron: I’ve maintained for a while now that I think Franklin is Kelly Johnson. He’ll have value but never become a star.

12:13
Comment From Tyler
So who’s the LF, CF, RF and 4th OF for the Cardinals next year?

12:13
Dave Cameron: Holliday, Jay, LH Veteran Placeholder platoon with Grichuk, and Taveras in Triple-A.

12:13
Comment From Dan
If the Mets decided to make a huge move this offseason, do they have the trade assets to get Bogaerts from Boston? Would Syndegaard and Plawecki be a starting point? Thanks.

12:13
Dave Cameron: Why would the Red Sox trade Xander Bogaerts?

12:14
Comment From Guest
Which team at any position has a significant edge over the other in the WS?

12:14
Dave Cameron: The Royals left fielder is just a little bit better than the Giants left fielder…

12:14
Comment From Paul
In its current format, I really don’t see how we can really say that team A is better than team B as the schedules are not balanced at all (inside the league or regarding inter-league), specially when teams A and B are within 1-3 games of each others. So the postseason is fun and flawed, but the regular is also as flawed. What do you think?

12:15
Dave Cameron: That neither is perfect does not mean both are equally imperfect. That’s like saying that basting a fish with butter is just as unhealthy as eating something from Paula Deen, because both have an ingredient in common.

12:16
Comment From Vic
What kind of years/greenbacks contract does Markakis get? Who might give it to him?

12:17
Dave Cameron: At this point, he’s kind of a less effective version of Shane Victorino without the defensive value. I can’t see him getting more than 3 years at $10-$12M apiece.

12:17
Comment From shawn
Did Drew Smyly change enough in his short time with the Rays to significantly change his future outlook? He seemed to go from a consensus back end starter to a solid future number 2. Maybe Cobb can teach him a change up too.

12:17
Dave Cameron: The “consensus back end starter” dogma was silly and wrong.

12:18
Dave Cameron: Don’t overreact to 50 good innings. He was a solid middle of the rotation starter in Detroit, and that’s probably what he still is.

12:18
Comment From Justin
Where do the Cardinals go from here? Trade Taveras/Martinez for an impact RF bat? Hold pat? I would expect there to be some roster “churn” to be in order

12:19
Dave Cameron: I don’t think they’ll do too much. They need depth more than they need a huge upgrade somewhere.

12:19
Comment From A. Lane
Do you feel that this current period of parity, likely due to the devaluing of free agency (more players signing extensions, less PEDs, ect…) and increased number of playoff spots will prove durable?

12:19
Dave Cameron: I actually wrote about that topic for my piece in the 2015 Hardball Times Annual. I won’t spoil that article, but I will say that I don’t think the PED issue has as much to do with the changes as other things.

12:20
Comment From Mike K
What kind of return could Marcus Semien bring right now, given the White Sox’s glut of middle infielders?

12:21
Dave Cameron: Probably not a lot, but I could see the A’s being interested.

12:22
Comment From Gabes
Are there any potential trade partners out there for the white sox to dump John Danks in a swap of bad contracts?

12:23
Dave Cameron: 2/28 remaining for a replacement level starter. That’s not going to be an easy sell. Maybe there’s a match there with Atlanta for BJ Upton, but besides that, I can’t see too many teams who’d want Danks’ deal.

12:23
Comment From Brian
re: Houston Astros. Do you think they will be active for anybody in the free agent market? Or will they try to improve exclusively through calling up new prospects/young players getting better?

12:24
Dave Cameron: They’ll spend again. Along with the Marlins, they were ~$25 million below everyone else in payroll this year, and with MLB’s revenues growing, the league won’t let them fall too far back for a sustained period.

12:25
Comment From Mike K
The White Sox have a ton of money to spend this offseason. Who should be their #1 priority in free agency?

12:25
Dave Cameron: Spread the wealth. I don’t think they’re in a position where they should go nuts for one player. They need multiple pieces.

12:26
Comment From Jacob
If I had to construct a team to outperform their Base Runs projection, it would be the 2014 Royals. However, I haven’t seen anyone in the analytical community try to explain the discrepancy as anything other than luck. Can you explain?

12:26
Dave Cameron: You haven’t done any work proving that teams like the 2014 Royals consistently outperform BaseRuns. If you try, you’ll realize you won’t find evidence supporting your claim.

12:27
Comment From Brian
Enjoyed your Royals post, Dave. Would adding another round to the postseason and shortening the regular season weed out the “mediocre” qualifiers, or would variance still be the big factor it is in the current setup?

12:27
Dave Cameron: I don’t see how you’d add another round of the postseason without adding more randomness to the mix, unless you gave the top teams a bye, but then you’re dealing with the best teams being forced into week long stretches without playing, which might not be beneficial.

12:28
Comment From Jake deBomb
You buy the Cespedes is available speculation?

12:28
Dave Cameron: Of course he’s available. The Red Sox aren’t going to say a player like that is off limits.

12:29
Comment From Jake deBomb
what do you think Andrew Miller gets and from whom?

12:30
Dave Cameron: Before the Dodgers hired Andrew Friedman, I’d have put him in LA on a huge deal. Detroit would seem like the next most obvious destination, but their beat writers suggest the team won’t spend big on another reliever. So maybe Baltimore keeps him.

12:30
Comment From ppeter
In what scenario would it make sense for Atlanta to move Heyward? He’s talented and Atlanta is in a position to compete; it’s not like he’s an expensive 33-yo with only one year left with a bad team. Love the Monday chats, thanks!

12:31
Dave Cameron: The Braves have an interesting dilemma ahead of them. If they aren’t entirely sure that they’ll be able to contend with Washington next year, they should consider trading both Upton and Heyward, and doing a mini-rebuild for a season to try and set themselves better for 2016. But I think that’s probably a tough sell in Atlanta.

12:32
Comment From ChrisH
Hey Dave – do you find the Steamer projection of Kris Byrant a bit bullish? I really like what I see from his swing but the K% is a red flag – along with the 73-point BABIP dip when he moved up to AAA

12:33
Dave Cameron: It’s only projecting him for a .324 BABIP in the majors next year, so it’s not like Steamer isn’t regressing that number heavily anyway. I could seen argument that maybe the projected K% is a few points too low, but guys who hit like Bryant generally hit very well in the big leagues.

12:33
Comment From primantis
isn’t batters faced or pitches a better metric than IP to measure how much a pitcher has pitched? Why don’t we ever see these used?

12:34
Dave Cameron: Tradition. Same reason why we use something like ERA, which is scaled to nine innings, even though no one throws nine innings anymore.

12:34
Comment From mtsw
Does Markakis get a QO? What’s the market for him look like?

12:34
Dave Cameron: I don’t think so. If he gets one, he should take it.

12:34
Comment From AA
Was Alex Guerrero a bad signing for the dodgers? They are paying him 4 million a season to pinch hit.

12:36
Dave Cameron: The problematic part of the contract is the opt-out if he’s traded. They’re not going to give him the second base job after Dee Gordon’s season, so ordinarily, they’d just use the depth to make a deal for something else they need, but the opt-out after trade limits that option. Teams just need to stop giving players opt-outs.

12:36
Comment From Guest
If you were the Reds, what would you do? Try and contend? What moves are there to be made?

12:36
Dave Cameron: Blow it up. Trade Cueto, Latos, Simon, and Chapman. Be the place to buy pitching this winter, and stockpile young hitters.

12:37
Comment From Tom
Should the Cardinals trade Oscar Taveras now while his stock is still high?

12:38
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’ve written before that I’m not a big fan. I’d be trying to move him while the prospect shine is still there.

12:38
Comment From Brian
Best single player in the WS?

12:38
Dave Cameron: Posey, easily.

12:39
Comment From Guest
Do you have a link to the WS projections? I remember seeing you guys had the ALCS/NLCS projections up, but can’t find anything on who’s favored in the WS (according to your projections).

12:39
12:39
Dave Cameron: Royals 58-42 favorites.

12:39
Comment From Jake deBomb
Hamels for Baez, Vogelbach and Hendricks make sense ?

12:39
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t do that if I was the Cubs.

12:40
Comment From Teddy
Can you see some kind of mega trade between the nationals, cubs, and red sox that involves, Jordan Zimmermann, Ian Desmond, Mookie Betts, Addison Russel, as well as other top prospects from all three teams?

12:40
Dave Cameron: I’m going to go out on a limb and say no.

12:41
Comment From Brian7
Should the White Sox trade Abreu now?

12:41
Dave Cameron: No. They’ve got enough pieces in place to realistically contend while he’s still good.

12:41
Comment From \\
I always thought baseball players looked big to me when I was younger by virtue of our age difference; but no, I now realize that baseball players in the late 90s looked like the Monstars. Were there really people who believed there was no PED use?

12:42
Dave Cameron: Why don’t you ask the same question of people who don’t talk about PED use in the NFL right now?

12:42
Comment From mtsw
Are you encouraged by the fact that the Royals being in the World Series hasn’t resulted in 5000 “Kansas City proves sabrmetrics doesn’t work” columns?

12:42
Dave Cameron: I’ve already seen a number of them. If they win, the floodgates will open.

12:42
Comment From KB
Your KC article makes me feel like I shouldn’t be so hard on the Brewers playing for mediocrity every year… but outside of the random year the variances work in your favor, mediocrity is far more irritating than losing with a purpose.

12:43
Dave Cameron: To you, probably. To the casual fan, though, being decent and giving them a reason to go to the ballpark has real value.

12:44
Comment From a northsider ,actually
Cubs > Sox, really? Sox have actual MLB talent — Abreu, Eaton, Sale — while the Cubs have Rizzo, an untested Arrieta, and a bunch of kids.

12:44
Dave Cameron: BaseRuns W%, 2014: Cubs at .480, White Sox at .466.

12:44
Comment From Tom
Should the Cardinals offer an extension to Jon Jay?

12:44
Dave Cameron: No. He’s a guy you go year to year with.

12:44
Comment From Guest
What happens to Bourjos this offseason?

12:45
Dave Cameron: Trade bait, most likely.

12:45
Comment From GSon
The Greater Good.. Would trading Yasiel Puig who would bring the biggest return for the Dodgers (while hindering the popularity of the Boys of Summer), a place where the Dodgers have a glut of OF’ers make more sense for this very good but flawed franchise?.. Who makes the most sense to deal with the Dodgers?

12:46
Dave Cameron: Puig is the one OF worth keeping. Unless they know something about his work ethic that will inhibit him from producing on the field in the future, hang onto him.

12:46
Comment From Teddy
Can you see teams moving to a 4 man rotation with the average start only going 4-5 innings, so only a couple of times through the lineup with an extra long relief guy in the bullpen, and why hasn’t this been done yet and will it be done soon?

12:47
Dave Cameron: The Rockies tried this a few years ago, and it failed miserably. You can’t just make this change at the big league level, and it’s going to be next to impossible for one team to pioneer this by themselves.

12:48
Comment From THE average sports fan
In the long term will MLB change how players from Cuba enter MLB?

12:48
Dave Cameron: Yeah, the current system isn’t good for anyone.

12:48
Comment From Brian7
What is the lower limit of Woba for a player to be a MLB regular? Assume absolute peak level defense…

12:49
Dave Cameron: Well, it depends on the run environment, really. It’s probably .250 in a neutral park right now, but maybe .270 or .280 in Coors Field.

12:49
Comment From Os Nos
You could do a 3-game wild card series and still have the wild-card winner-best record LDS start on that Friday

12:50
Dave Cameron: Only if you don’t have a travel day between the WC series and the start of the division series. So either you’re playing the final game of the WC series in the day time, or you’re asking a team to play a night game, potentially fly across the country, and then play again the next day. The MLBPA wouldn’t go for that.

12:51
Dave Cameron: There’s a reason teams’ play early on getaway days.

12:51
Comment From Colin
Reconsidered whether Zimmermann could bring back Mookie Betts after his playoff performance? Or should the Nats trade Strasburg and hang onto him?

12:52
Dave Cameron: Zimermmann could have thrown five consecutive perfect games to end the season and not be worth Mookie Betts. One year of even the best player in baseball isn’t worth 6 years of regular contributions from a guy like Betts.

12:52
Comment From Ben
If the Red Sox were to try for Cueto or Latos what do you think would get it done?

12:53
Dave Cameron: It would probably take several of their better young arms. Unfortunately for Boston, the Reds already have young talent at C/CF, so a trade with those clubs might be tougher.

12:54
Comment From Mark
Why do you think the Dodgers were considered by many casual fans to be prohibitive favorites in the NL prior to the playoffs? Was it just Kershaw fetishism, payroll, or something else?

12:54
Dave Cameron: I don’t think that was true at all. I saw more people favoring the Nationals.

12:54
Comment From Marty
When you say ‘the league’ won’t let the Astros fall behind in payroll…who dictates that? does it come from the commish because he’s working for all 30 owners?

12:55
Dave Cameron: The MLBPA has the ability to petition the league to sanction a team who isn’t spending an appropriate amount of the revenue sharing money they receive on player salaries. The Marlins were forced to raise payroll by the league a few years ago under this scenario.

12:56
Comment From Tom
It certainly seems like the 63% projection for the Royals to win the ALCS was not as absurd as a lot of folks were trying to say.

12:56
Dave Cameron: Four games doesn’t really prove anything either way. It’s SSS, even when the results align with the projections.

12:56
Comment From Stephen
Do you think there is a “next frontier” for baseball sabermetrics, and if so what do you think it is?

12:57
Dave Cameron: There are a lot of them. Injury information/prevention is going to be a big one for teams, especially as biomechanics data becomes more prevalent.

12:57
Comment From ic light
why use k%-bb%, rather than k/bb?

12:57
Dave Cameron: Using BB as the denominator creates artificially high ratios for guys who never walk anyone.

12:58
Comment From Brian
Who is the tallest non pitcher in MLB history?

12:58
Dave Cameron: Tony Clark was 6’8. I think he may have been it.

12:58
Comment From Guest
What kind of haul do you think the Reds can get for Chapman, and the other group of starters?

12:59
Dave Cameron: A good amount for Cueto and Chapman, something for Latos, not a lot for Simon.

12:59
Comment From Guest
Posey > Bumgarner, easily?

12:59
Dave Cameron: Yeah. It’s not even all that close.

1:00
Comment From The Big Dipper
If the Reds completely blow it up then that would make Frazier and Bruce available too, no?

1:00
Dave Cameron: You can’t trade Bruce coming off his 2014. You have to hope he bounces back.

1:01
Comment From Bill
So Taveras is dispensable, Bourjos is trade bait, and Jay is year to year. Who’s going to play the outfield for St. Louis in the future, Molina or Wainwright? Those guys can’t all be on the way out, particularly with Holliday getting long in the tooth.

1:01
Dave Cameron: The Cardinals are in plan for 2015 mode, not plan for 2017.

1:02
Comment From mtsw
If teams start going with tandem starters in the majors eventually to mitigate the times-through-the-order penalty, how legitimately can we claim that Fangraphs chat came up with the idea?

1:02
Dave Cameron: We didn’t. This idea has been around for a long time before i started yelling about it.

1:03
Comment From Willie Bloomquists Mom
Go year to year with Eric Hosmer or try for the long-term deal?

1:03
Dave Cameron: I can’t see Hosmer accepting a deal now that wouldn’t be an overpay. He’s not going to sell his upside cheap, and the risk is too high to pay for that potential until he realizes it.

1:04
Comment From Os Nos
Start the wild card on Monday — if there is a rain out or tiebreaker, the MLBPA cannot complain about that.

1:04
Dave Cameron: You can’t have the WC series scheduled for the day after the regular season ends with no contingency plan in place in case of a tie. It’s a logistical nightmare.

1:05
Comment From Guest
Dave, what was your first PC?

1:05
Dave Cameron: My dad bought a 386 desktop back in the early-90s for several thousand dollars.

1:06
Dave Cameron: One of my earliest memories of using a computer was writing command prompts in DOS.

1:06
Comment From a realist
Bogaerts, Bradley, Baez, Taveras, Myers, Montero, Bauer, S. Miller, Castellanos, Singleton, d’Arnaud — a short list of untouchable prospects of recent vintage who may have been better turning into one year of Zimmerman rather than six years of frustration. When do we start remembering that not all prospects turn into the hall of famer we “comp” them to?

1:08
Dave Cameron: Besides the fact that your list of guys who have had “six years of frustration” is ridiculous, you want to go through and list all the pitchers who have blown out their arms or turned to suck overnight? When are people going to realize that big leaguers aren’t guarantees either.

1:08
Dave Cameron: Alright, I have to go get some food before recording back to back podcasts.

1:09
Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out on a Monday.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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DrBGiantsfan
9 years ago

One man’s mediocrity is another man’s parity.