Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/25/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Travis and I will be live blogging Game 2 tonight, so it’s a chatting kind of day for me.

Dave Cameron: Plenty of WS stuff to talk about, but we’ll also do some off-season stuff if you’re a fan of one of the other 28 teams that just wants the hot stove season to get here already.

Not Jeff Luhnow: The Astros have looked lost at the plate for the majority of this postseason.  I know Kershaw is a great pitcher, but how much of last night was him pitching well vs. the Astros not having a good plan and letting a lot of hittable pitches go.

Dave Cameron: It’s impossible to know, obviously, but it did seem like Houston just wasn’t seeing the ball very well most of the night. They complained repeatedly about clear strikes, Reddick especially. I wonder if they weren’t use to the Dodgers Stadium batters eye or something.

Josh R: My favorite nugget of the post season: The Dodger bullpen has given up the fewest runs of any team this post season, including the Rockies and Twins one game.

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers bullpen has been something else.

Dave Cameron: Which tells you how fast things can change, because during their losing streak, the bullpen was terrible and everyone was claiming it was the same old dodgers.

Matty P: What are the indians most likely to do? resign Jay Bruce? or Carlos Santana… or Exercise Michael Brantleys option?

Dave Cameron: Maybe none of those things? With Encarnacion at DH, I don’t know if they’ll want to commit to any more players who might need DH time. Santana’s fine at first base, but he’s a former catcher heading into his mid-30s, so it’s not hard to think that he might start having some health problems.

Dave Cameron: I could see them trying to bargain hunt for a 1B in January or February, with the money they save there going to a legit outfielder.

Mac Gwire: What kind of return do you think the Yankees can get for Betances? Would a team trade MLB talent for him, or would it be like two minor-league lottery tickets?

Dave Cameron: I think you could get a lower ceiling MLB guy for him. When I mentioned a possible fit with the Pirates, who have a lot of young starters and like to fix high-velocity RPs with command problems, I was thinking maybe someone like Steven Brault would work as a return. Not an impact arm, maybe, but a decent swing guy who could give the team cheap rotation depth.

Bb: Gut feeling: Does Dusty get another chance?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone thought Washington getting eliminated was his fault, so I’d generally say yes, but I’m not sure which team would hire him right now, given the clear trend towards younger managers who are willing to use data.

Jason D: Who closes for the Cubs next year?  A re-signed Davis, Edwards, Strop, Maples, or an external candidate?

Dave Cameron: Someone from outside the organization.

Phillipe Constantinople: chance machado gets dealt before/during the season. what would be expected back in the deal

Dave Cameron: During is most likely, once the Orioles get into June or July and realize “hey, we’re still not very good”

Hannah Hochevar: Were you surprised they didn’t pinch hit for keuchel to lead off the 6th?

Dave Cameron: Surprised? Not really. Hinch doesn’t trust his relievers. He needs to, but he doesn’t.

Damon Berryhill: Would the Marlins trade Stanton to the Cubs for Schwarber, Addison Russell and minor leaguers?

Dave Cameron: Of course they would, because Stanton and his full contract has very limited trade value.

Dave Cameron: The Cubs wouldn’t even think of doing that.

P: Dave, to the point of your post this morning, could part of taking fastballs down the center be a function of changing sequencing by Kershaw? I don’t have any information one way or another but just a thought.

Dave Cameron: Could be. We’re not that close to understanding how pitch sequencing affects hitters.

Julio: Chris Taylor, Justin Turner, Kike Hernandez. How do the Dodgers find guys like this?

Dave Cameron: By not dismissing minor league performances.

Dave Cameron: For all the “Chris Taylor came out of nowhere!” talk, he hit at nearly every level of the minors.

Ed in Iowa: Don’t you hate it when you know you are about to ask a stupid question, but you honestly don’t know in which direction it is stupid? So yeah, here goes: Is 2 years of Dellin Betances worth more than 6 years of Ian Happ? And is it even close (one way or the other)?

Dave Cameron: It’s not close. 2 years of Betances wouldn’t even be worth 2 years of Happ, much less 6.

Three Lindors Down: Gut feeling. Where is Harper playing in 2019?

Dave Cameron: Yankee Stadium.

v2micca: Turner’s homerun is a flyball out 70% of the time.  Conditions were just right that it kept carrying on a warm night.  But both Keuchel and Turner new the ball was carrying better night.  Still, it feels like Keuchel played the right odds and just lost anyway.  Your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: He had made Turner look silly on pitches up at the top of the zone the first two at-bats.

Dave Cameron: Turner adjusted.

Cam Daveron: Kershaw Only threw 80+ pitches.  Does he come back for game 4?

Dave Cameron: Nah. They don’t need to push him.,

Rog: Justin Verlander: Best player in the world series?

Dave Cameron: Yes, if Kershaw, Seager, Correa, Altuve, and Turner all got suspended since you submitted this question.

Korean: During the terrible run though they were trotting out Baez/Stripling/Stewart/the Tony’s and others to test for the postseason bullpen.

Dave Cameron: Sure, but the Tony’s have been part of the postseason dominance, and Morrow/Jansen were around then too.

Dave Cameron: The only real change is Maeda replacing Baez, and everyone just performing better.

Matt : I read your piece on Cubs’ need to retool a bit. What is the most critical piece on that punch list to insure they stay in same stratosphere with Dodger and the Nats- at least the ‘18 Nats-, going forward?

Dave Cameron: They probably need to buy low on a guy who turns into a good SP. Trading Schwarber or Russell for a starter is one thing, but it’s going to be hard to “win” a trade like that, and they need to add value, not just move it around.

Cam Daveron: Dave – am I falling for the gamblers fallacy or are you in for a 5 hour game tonight??

Dave Cameron: The former, but Rich Hill will slow things down tonight.

Raindog: Which team will inevitably play the “maybe Carlos Gonzalez bounces back to an average player” lottery?  Personally I think he feels like an extremely Orioles kind of player.

Dave Cameron: Maybe the Royals after Hosmer/Moustakas leave and they feel they have to sign someone?

LegallyEagle: Re: Betances. Would a Ross Stripling or Brock Stewart be sufficient to swing a trade?

Dave Cameron: Maybe.

MJL: Guess at what kind of contract Morrow might attract in the off season?
Will anyone give him 2 years?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d think 2/16 or something.

Dave Cameron: Still going to be lots of health skepticism.

Jeb: Unless the Yankees think Betances’ value will continue to decline and his control is unrepairable, why sell so low?

Dave Cameron: Because it’s a poor use of resources to spend $6M or whatever he’s going to get in arbitration on a low-leverage reliever and waste the opportunity to turn him into something they could use more. They don’t really have a spot for him to pitch high-leverage innings, and his trade value won’t go up pitching mop-up work.

Bret: The Cubs have said they’re open to dealing some of their young position players to help add pitching. Of the Russell, Baez, Happ & Schwarber group, who’s most likely to go? I imagine Schwarber is the most obvious answer given that he’s a 1B who is blocked there, but the Cubs seem rather high on him.

Dave Cameron: I bet Russell goes, Baez to SS, Happ to 2B.

HugoZ: Read an article where someone suggested sending Kemp and Jim Johnson to the Yankees for Ellsbury. Does that solve everybody’s problem or just create new ones?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know what that does for the Yankees.

Dave Cameron: Kemp is not worth playing. Ellsbury at least still has some value as a part-time guy.

Bret: Do the Dodgers look to move Joc Pederson this offseason? Or does Chris Taylor go back to the infield and make Logan Forsythe a trade option?

Dave Cameron: Maybe Taylor bounces around and they just have Joc and Logan share a job?

Matt: What are the odds Stanton gets moved this winter?

Dave Cameron: 99%

JC: Happ for James Paxton. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Mariners, just because they already don’t have enough pitching and have okay options at 2B/OF. But Cubs might not want to turn Happ into a guy who can’t stay healthy either. Not sure it’s unfair, just maybe not what either team is wanting to do.

Detroit Mike: Maybe I missed it in a chat, but what was your reaction to the Tigers getting Gardenhire?  It seemed that Aliva and the Tigers wanted to put more resources in analytics.  I understand that they will be terrible for 3 or more years, but I can’t help but feel this is a step backwards for the organization.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think we know nearly enough about how managers can affect player development to really have an opinion. Most of the criticism of Gardenhire being old school is about his in-game strategy, but that’s irrelevant for the Tigers for a while. Maybe he’s really good at getting guys to try new things? I have no idea, but I don’t think the Tigers should really care how often he bunts.

Three Lindors Down: Who could you see end up on the Cubs this offseason? Seems Theo will explore trade market and keep powder dry for 2018. Do you see them adding a huge name like Harper then?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be shocked if they made a big run at Archer.

Dave Cameron: That’s definitely their kind of guy, and they have some bats that Tampa would be interested in.

Urooj: Why did Turner take such a huge discount? $64 million over 4 years for him is stupid value.

Dave Cameron: He’s an LA guy, so he probably didn’t want to leave, and that probably convinced other teams to not try too hard. But yeah, he should have gotten $100M

the pale king: could dodgers not make a single move this offseson and still be favorites to win it all?

Dave Cameron: Who are they losing this winter? Darvish, Morrow, Granderson, Watson?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, bring everyone back besides those four, it’s still a 90+ win team.

Lee: What do you think of the Cora hire in Boston?

Dave Cameron: Everyone who knows him thinks he’ll be awesome. We still don’t really know anything about managers, though.

ohioastrosfan: Is there any chance Stanton could go to Houston? Money to spend, contending for years, though a spot in the outfield would be less easy to work out. The lineup would be absolutely filthy. Only issue is Houston’s aversion to big contracts.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it could be a fit. Don’t see a fit problem; the Astros don’t really have a good LF right now,.

Bobert: I hate how people just give the Dodgers’ success to payroll.  $100 million of it wasn’t even on postseason roster.

Dave Cameron: Both sides are correct. The Dodgers could afford to blow $100 million and have other options. That’s real. But they also didn’t just stop at throwing money around and worked hard to find guys like Taylor, who matter a lot.

G. Stanton: In case Jimmy Kimmel asks me again, where am I going to play next year?

Dave Cameron: Cardinals have spent enough time talking about “impact hitters” that they probably have to be considered one of the favorites.

Rick: Schwarber/ Happ for Archer/ Colume, who says no? Archer has the most value, but his contract ends the earliest.  seems like weaknesses on both sides are addressed.

Dave Cameron: TB could do better than that.

toki: Any chance the Yankees try to get Stanton?  It would be amazing to see him and Judge in the same lineup.

Dave Cameron: Nah, they’ll keep a spot open for Harper.

Anthony: How much of that contract do the Marlins end up eating?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess ~$50M, but all of it after the opt-out, so they’re only on the hook for payments if he ends up as a bust.

Fieri: The Marlins don’t want anything but money back for Stanton, right?

Dave Cameron: They’ll have to get back some big leaguers just to fill out the roster, because if they’re cutting payroll to $90M, they won’t be able to find enough guys in FA to do that given what they’re paying Chen/Volquez to not pitch.

Dave Cameron: Which is why they’ll have to eat some of Stanton’s contract.

Adler: What will Clint Fraizer’s role be in the Yankees’ outfield next year. He got a chance last year with both Hicks and Ellsbury hurt but assuming they are back, and even if Ellsbury is traded at some point, where does he fit in? Is he going to send Hicks to the bench/DH, will he only really come in full time once Gardner retires?

Dave Cameron: Another year split between AAA and MLB won’t hurt him. He can start the year in the minors and come up when an OF gets hurt.

Nic: Re: Betances. I don’t really understand your logic for the Yankees trading betances. You keep saying that there are no high leverage innings for him, yet even after the Yankees got kahnle and robertson, Dellin was the set up man until the end of September. When chapman was demoted, it was betances who became the closer, and this was after he had alreayd went through a period early in the year where he had no control. It seems that once Joe sees that betances has his command back, he will go back to giving him high leverage innings

Dave Cameron: Dellin was the setup man because there was no real reason to rock the boat, and it’s easier to keep the status quo going when it doesn’t matter. You saw the real pecking order in October. Dellin is 5th or 6th on their RP depth chart.

toki: For the Cubs to land Archer what would they need to give up?  Schwarber and Happ?

Dave Cameron: Would guess it would be built around Russell.

Nick S: Suggestions for additions to splits leader boards: 1. age as a filter stat so we can find players “younger than age 25 who have hit 20 HRs”. 2. Into the filter conditional field, add a way to state “K% less than league average by 3%”.

Dave Cameron: On your second point, we should be announcing something pretty soon that I think you’ll like.

Tim : Happ for Folty? Would that be a good deal?

Dave Cameron: Happ is worth more than Folty.

mtsw: Given Kershaw’s light workload yesterday should the Dodgers consider pushing him up to Game 4 in the hope he could start a potential G7 as well?

Dave Cameron: Nah. Start him in Game 5, use him in relief in Game 7.

Oddball Herrera: Is this a particularly cruddy offseason to be a lower budget team on the edge of contention?  Unlike as recently as a few years ago, almost all the usual big spenders are now in competitive windows  plus the Phillies might start acquiring as well.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t think we’re going to see as many bargain FAs as in years past.

Fieri: Who’s going to emerge as the “other team” in the Harper FA sweepstakes? (aside from NYY and WAS)

Dave Cameron: LA will be in on that too.

Dave Cameron: Maybe the Cubs.

Dave Cameron: Maybe the Phillies.

Tom: What would a trade for Stanton look like for the Cardinals? Grichuk/Piscotty + Flaherty/Reyes?

Dave Cameron: Depends entirely on how much money Miami keeps on their books. Don’t see Reyes being in the deal either way, but if the Marlins just decide to dump as much money as possible, could see it being something like Grichuk and a throw-in.

Lunar verLander: re. Stanton to Astros: There’s been a lot of hype on OF Kyle Tucker, and while he is just a prospect, the Astros held on to him for dear life; so I’m not sure if Stanton would fit in the Astros outfield with Reddick & Springer there already

Dave Cameron: If Tucker forced his way into a job, Stanton could DH.

Mark: Dave, why is Stanton’s contract looked at so poorly? Is it the injury concerns, the opt outs, deferred money?

Dave Cameron: He’s a big guy with a history of knee problems who is due almost $300M going forward and has an opt-out. So if he’s good, you get him for a few years, then he leaves. If he’s bad, you get a $250M albatross.

Dave Cameron: It’s not that appealing a bet.

James: Why is Rich Hill starting over Yu Darvish tonight?

Dave Cameron: Guessing they like a fly ball guy in LA more than in HOU.

TABC roots for NYY: prior to this season, Bryce was the plan for all yankee fans. Has that changed? Obviously Judge is on the scene and the Yankees seem to be aiming under the luxury tax, so all factors considered, do you think they should/will go for him?

Dave Cameron: They are trying to get under the luxury tax so that they don’t get taxed as hard when they sign one of Harper/Machado/Donaldson.

Dave Cameron: If they don’t get one of those three, I’ll be shocked.

dan: What happens if the Marlins are unable to trade Stanton?

Dave Cameron: Unless he gets hurt this winter, I don’t see why that would happen.

HappyFunBall: NYYs could trade for Stanton, sign Machado, and let someone else pay half a billion for Harper

Dave Cameron: They could, but Stanton + Machado will cost you more than Harper.

John: Do you think the Marlins trade Yelich and/or Ozuna too?

Dave Cameron: Would think Ozuna more likely, given Yelich’s deal.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that will conclude today’s Marlins-centric chat.

Dave Cameron: Didn’t see that coming.

Dave Cameron: I’ll be back in 7 hours for World Series Game 2.

Dave Cameron: Join Travis and I for the fun tonight.