Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/28/15

Dave Cameron: Hey, look, a chat. Haven’t done one of these in, oh, 12 hours.

Dave Cameron: But even after 5 1/2 hours of live blogging last night, I’m here for my normal Wednesday get together. Let’s spend an hour talking World Series, off-season prep, or other baseball-related queries you may have.

Dave Cameron: The queue is open and we’ll start in 15 minutes or so.

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get started.

Comment From Phillies113
You’re chatting after chatting all night last night? You’re a wild and crazy guy, Dave Cameron.

Comment From EC
Strasburg for Kimbrel, who says no?

Dave Cameron: The Nationals would have zero interest in that.

Comment From Mike R
Ruben Amaro Jr with the RedSox… in any capacity… Is this a preview of how the team will change going foward?

Dave Cameron: Just because Amaro isn’t a good GM doesn’t mean he isn’t qualified for a job in baseball.

Comment From Bork
Also, who would be willing to give a draft pick to sign Estrada? Seem’s like the type of player/contract that would be hard to justify sacrificing a draft pick to sign, unless you’ve already given up your first round and don’t mind giving up the second.

Dave Cameron: I could see a team with a protected first rounder being willing to give up their second rounder if they got him for a decent price, like 2/$22M or something.

Comment From jon
The Yankees have said they are planning on avoiding the top of the market. The Cubs seem to be inclined to avoid another megadeal. The Dodgers have to decide on retaining Greinke. Who are the big buyers in this offseason market?

Dave Cameron: The Red Sox will be in the market for the top tier pitchers. The Diamondbacks keep making noises about going after an ace. The Giants are going to go after one of the top starters. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Astros did too.

Comment From JC
Machado for Lynn, Piscotty, Adams, and Wong. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: The Orioles, probably.

Comment From Anthony
Do you take the “we had to stop the game because there was no replay” explanation at face value? To me it sounds like a pretext. Isn’t TV important enough to the league that Fox could just say “we need you to stop the game for 5-10 minutes while we figure this out”, regardless of whether replay was an issue?

Dave Cameron: Well, we just had a replay-related delay to a Mets game like three weeks ago, right? So we know the league will hold up a game if replay isn’t working.

Comment From mapsamountainrange
Do agree with the Mets’ decision to not bring in Thor or Matz in extras last night?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Comment From KW
Should Wade Davis have remained in the game for 2IP instead of Madson? I know Game 2 was the reasoning, but last year showed KC how important it is to win Game 1.

Dave Cameron: I was surprised he only went one, but Ned Yost does a lot of surprising things.

Comment From FM Mood
Think Escobar sees a first pitch breaking ball tonight?

Dave Cameron: The fact that teams keep grooving him first pitch fastballs is beyond stupid.

Comment From Chris
What do you envision happening with the Jays outfield next year? With Bautista, Pillar, Pompey, Revere and Saunders all in the mix something has to give.

Dave Cameron: You don’t count on Saunders giving you anything, and there’s nothing wrong with having four useful OFs.

Comment From Sirras
The rational, sane side of me says that it’s 1 game of a possible 7 and the Mets are still fine. The utilitarian side of me says it’s just baseball and it is ultimately unimportant. The emotional side of me is FREAKING THE ____ OUT AND OH NO THE WORLD IS GOING TO END AND I’M DYING AND THAT GAME WAS DEATH AND AHHHHHHHHH. Thank you for your understanding.

Comment From ben
i thought i understood playoff roster rules – but i guess not. how is mondesi allowed onto the roster if he wasn’t on the 40 man on 9/1?

Dave Cameron: You don’t have to be on the 40 man, just in the organization.

Comment From Dash
Do you see Heyward as a fit for the Mariners?

Dave Cameron: They already have a lot of long-term money tied up in Felix/Cano/Seager. Unless payroll is going way up, I don’t think they’ll be in the market for another $20M+ per year guy.

Comment From Cory S.
Wanna take a wild guess at who is the opening day start for the Red Sox on the mound and at 1st?

Dave Cameron: Reasonable bets: David Price/Hanley Ramirez. Out there guesses: Stephen Strasburg/Chris Davis.

Comment From Colin
Who gets the biggest free agent contract this off-season?

Dave Cameron: Price, easily.

Comment From Danny
What kind of contract do you see Mike Leake getting? 4/55 or something like that?

Dave Cameron: A lot more. 6/$90M

Comment From Pops
What kind of contract should we expect to see Greinke land? Where is the best fit for him?

Dave Cameron: 5/$150M, LA.

Comment From Izzy
How would you rank the eight starters on the two WS teams (present ability)?

Dave Cameron: deGrom, Harvey, Syndergaard, Cueto, Ventura, Matz, Volquez, Young/Medlen

Comment From Minty
Where do you stand on Schwarber going forward? It seems as if people are over the top in love or hate, with almost no one in the middle.

Dave Cameron: Left-handed Mike Napoli. Good player, not a superstar.

Comment From Sirras
Mets needs this offseason: bullpen, starter depth, shortstop, one “big bat”?

Dave Cameron: Probably shortstop. Assuming Murphy leaves and Flores/Herrera share second base duties, they don’t really have an internal candidate to play short next year.

Comment From Hugo Z
What would you give Span…a year plus an option year?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably go three years if I could get the AAV low enough, say 3/$30M or something.

Comment From KW
With this world-series run, and possibly a championship, could KC get enough revenue to keep Zobrist, Gordon, AND go after a mid-top tier SP?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From RMR
Did the kiddo let you sleep in this morning?

Dave Cameron: He did. We’re pretty lucky that we have a low-ish maintenance kid, as far as kids go.

Comment From Robert
Do you think the Angels do much this offseason? They have a ton of $ coming off after next season, but next offseason has less impact talent.

Dave Cameron: They make the most sense for Daniel Murphy, and I could see them going after another starter too.

Comment From Julio Pepper
I still don’t understand the logic of walking Lorenzo Cain. Hosmer had the platoon advantage, and now a walk means a run. What do the Mets gain by doing that?

Dave Cameron: Force at home. When the game ends if the guy at third scores, there is some value in being able to not have tag the runner at the plate. But I don’t know that it’s worth it, so I didn’t like that IBB much either.

Comment From NC
Assuming that the Reds were to make Todd Frazier available this offseason, what sort of return do you think he’d bring?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they’ll make him available, and I don’t think he’d bring back what people might expect. It’s two years of team control for an older guy heading to arb who specializes in the things arb pays the most for. He’s a good player, not a great player, and not as young as you might think for a guy with his experience.

Comment From Jaack
If every game in this series goes 14 innings, how would you feel?

Dave Cameron: Exhausted.

Comment From KW
Considering the competition that tends to drive prices skyhigh, along with the incredible advanced statistics, could Zobrist get 3/50 or even 4 years?

Dave Cameron: He’s going to do a lot better than 3/50. I’m guessing 4/$70M, and he might beat that.

Comment From Andrew
Should the bullpen performance of former starters like Davis et al give me hope that Appel won’t be a total bust?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Any starter shouldn’t be written off until he is tried as a reliever. Even Liam Hendriks turned into a very good reliever.

Comment From Radiokev
So what’s with Familia quick pitching last night? If it’s an actually effective way to attack hitters, wouldn’t more pitchers be doing it? Seems too gimmicky for a guy with his stuff.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that struck me as weird. I don’t know how often he did it in the regular season, though, so maybe that’s just part of his game.

Comment From Jaack
If the game tonight turns boring real quick (like 9-0 in the second, either way) do you think Sullivan would liveblog the GOP debate instead?

Dave Cameron: No, but he might do some volcano-related trivia.

Comment From Minty
So if you’re the Cubs, is that someone worth trading for a SP? Not that Napoli was bad, but what if he can center a deal for a young SP?

Dave Cameron: Depends on who the pitcher is. I think there’s a pretty good argument they should trade Schwarber this winter, but keeping him another year to further evaluate his ability to catch isn’t a terrible idea either.

Comment From 9
Does Span accept that deal or does he look fir a 1 year prove it deal?

Dave Cameron: He’s getting old enough that there’s not a lot of value in a pillow contract.

Comment From groucho
cardinals opening day 2016 outfield starters?

Dave Cameron: Holliday, Grichuk, Piscotty.

Comment From N Clark
Could Sonny Gray be a good starting point for a Shwarber trade?

Dave Cameron: A’s said they aren’t trading Gray, and Schwarber isn’t worth him.

Comment From Dooduh
6/90 for Mike Leake????? I’d like to have some of what you’re smoking… seriously, Leake is like a RHed Jon Niese. come on, get a grip.

Dave Cameron: He’s a durable 28 year old above average starting pitcher.

Comment From Bork
A’s said they weren’t trading Donaldson either…

Dave Cameron: I know. And maybe they’ll change their mind, but Schwarber isn’t going to get the Cubs Sonny Gray.

Comment From lowercase jeff
When citing the average cost of a win in the free agent market, what numbers are used? Previous year salary and WAR? Several years? Current year’s contracts and projected WAR?

Dave Cameron: Projected WAR and salary over the life of the contract just signed.

Comment From Julio Pepper
So the only additional value is the not having to tag at home on a groundball, yes?

Dave Cameron: It also set up a double play, but yes, it was primarily about getting a force at home.

Comment From Christian
Could the Royals be dark horse candidates to sign one of the aces this off season? They have the play off money and it’s clear what their biggest weakness is. Maybe a Greinke reunion if the Dodgers decide to go elsewhere?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see it. My guess is they give Gordon like 4/$80M or something and that’s their big off-season move.

Comment From Tommy
Are the Orioles making Machado available?

Dave Cameron: No reason to believe so.

Comment From The Dude
Is there a live blog tonight? If so, who’s hosting it?

Dave Cameron: Jeff Sullivan

Comment From johnny5alive
wait, maybe im missing something, but ben zobrist is 34, correct? i know he is really good, but 4 or more years to a 34 year old?

Dave Cameron: Good players take years over AAV, as teams are happy to push the costs of present upgrades into the future. So he’ll get less per year than he’s worth in exchange for getting signed through the point where he won’t be that productive.

Comment From Guest
If Cardinals don’t sign Heyward, would they give 4 or 5 years to Chris Davis? Seems unlikely for them.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I doubt it.

Comment From Jacob
What happened to Gerardo Parra’s defense? Is it a fluke or is he really that awful?

Dave Cameron: Probably a combination of him bulking up (which is where the power spike came from) and small sample size.

Comment From Dooduh
Stras to Boston sounds like something that could happen. Margot, Owens and stuff.

Dave Cameron: I would bet it would be a three way deal, as the Nationals might prefer young MLB ready talent over prospects.

Comment From Colin
Do you see a future market correction in the amount of TV money coming into the major professional sports leagues?

Dave Cameron: The model will change from long-term exclusive deals with cable operators to direct-to-consumer deals with the leagues themselves. MLBAM is already setting up themselves (or the company they spin off) to be able to sell multi-sport packages to fans who want streaming rights to baseball, hockey, golf, etc… They’re doing a really nice job insuring the eventual crash of cable TV doesn’t hurt them.

Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
What’s the easiest low-cost solution for the Indians to improve their outfield?

Dave Cameron: Maybe Leonys Martin.

Comment From Nick
How much more revenue does a deep playoff run bring in for an organization than if they missed the playoffs. Say they have 10 home games.

Dave Cameron: 10 home games means you made the World Series, so in the right market, we’re probably talking about something like $100M in future revenues.

Comment From Christian
With Puig the presumptive big name traded this offseason, what kind of price tag would he have? Which teams do you think would be willing to deal for him? Unquestionably talented but also feels like selling low.

Dave Cameron: I could see a team that has trouble attracting/signing stars taking a shot on him as an upside play. Maybe the Astros, for instance.

Comment From Tom
Challenge Trade: Gregory Polanco for Trevor Bauer, who says no?

Dave Cameron: Pirates shouldn’t have any interest. Bauer isn’t very good.

Comment From Luke
Any excuse for starting Johnson over Lagares and letting Cuddyer get three at-bats? Sure don’t look like Terry’s finest decisions.

Dave Cameron: It’s not like he had great alternatives to Cuddyer, but yeah, I’d think Lagares should start in CF on days when the DH is available.

Comment From Matt
Will the Jays be serious contenders to sign Price like Anthopoulos says? What else could you see them doing?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. My guess is they re-sign Estrada, trade for more SP depth instead of going for an ace, and if they spend, look for an LH bat this winter, probably at 1B.

Comment From DC
Quintana and a reliever to the Dodgers for Puig and Austin Barnes. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Dodgers. Quintana fits the Doug Fister mold of very good performers with average stuff, and the market has generally shown that those type of pitchers don’t bring back what their results would have you suspect.

Comment From Neal
Chris Davis would be a great fit for the Jays, no? His stats there are incredible and he’s a LH power bat 1B.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I could see them making a run at Davis.

Comment From Nick
Does WAR take into account the fact that over half of Arenado’s bombs were on the road? Or does the fact that he plays home games at Coors still suppress the value of his home run total as a whole?

Dave Cameron: The fact that half his HRs were on the road doesn’t mean that he wasn’t helped by Coors Field.

Comment From Neal
Which would be better for the Jays in the long run? Making a run for Davis or Price? Davis would obviously be the cheaper option.

Dave Cameron: Depends on the cost. Price is probably going to get about twice as much as Davis, and I’m not sure he’s twice as good, but there’s a lot of risk with Davis as well.

Comment From klof
is heyward a match for CF for the cubs? he provides value on his own but he also is no longer a cardinal. is that worth more to the cubs than to another team?

Dave Cameron: I’ve had that same thought, but Theo didn’t sound too eager about going after a big money position player in his press conference. Sounds like they might spend on a pitcher instead.

Comment From Jones
Speaking of the Astros having trouble attracting stars…do you feel like with the parity in the MLB (the Royals-Mets being in the WS after semi-recent years of being dumpster fires for example) will mean teams like the Astros will experience that less and less? Seems like it would be foolish for a player to nix a trade to a “bad team” when half of them end up in the playoffs shortly thereafter.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s a decent point, but I’m not sure players see it that way. I think they still see certain franchises as perennial contenders and others as also-rans.

Comment From Eric Weinstein
With the exception of that complete fluke 2011, Mike Napoli has never been as good at the plate as Schwarber was this year. And Napoli came up at 24, Schwarber at 22. And Schwarber’s framing, pop-up and arm strength numbers are all in line with MLB catching averages. I think you’re severely underrating Schwarber’s potential. You may turn up right on this. But Napoli seems like a real worst case scenario.

Dave Cameron: Napoli has a career 125 wRC+. Schwarber had a 131 wRC+ this year. So essentially I’m saying I expect Schwarber to play roughly as well (offensively) as he did in 2015, which I think is perfectly reasonable. Projecting him to improve dramatically because of age ignores the fact that he’s already filled out physically.

Dave Cameron: And there’s no player in the world where a guy with nearly +30 career WAR is the “worst case scenario”. You’re not appropriately accounting for risk if you think that’s the case.

Comment From Sammy
Do you think its possible the Dodgers opt to trade Puig for a starter such as one of the Cleveland Pitchers or Harvey(to replace Grienke) and then sign Hayward to play RF? Seems a little safer to invest money in Hayward than one of the free agent pitchers.

Dave Cameron: Possible, but I don’t see Puig as a fit in CLE or NYM. I’d guess it’d be more likely that they’d trade Puig for a package of guys they like rather than straight up for an arm.

Comment From Jack Glasscocks Cup
Would Danny Salazar be close to enough to get Puig?

Dave Cameron: Maybe, but I don’t know that Salazar is the Dodgers kind of pitcher.

Comment From Owen
I know this is considered sacrilegious but I think Davis is entering Riveria territory.

Dave Cameron: He just needs to keep this up for another 18 years.

Comment From Johnny Cueto
What team do you see me signing with?

Dave Cameron: Yankees, maybe.

Comment From Derek
Tulo to the Mets?

Dave Cameron: That ship has sailed. Tulo has a full no-trade now and his value is very likely down since the Jays acquired him, so they’d have to take a loss on that series of moves in order to make a deal there.

Comment From JV
Do you think Kolten Wong can still develop more offensively?

Dave Cameron: He’s a Cardinal; give it a few years and they’ll have him hitting 40 bombs and throwing 96 out of the bullpen on off-days.

Comment From Lee
All things being equal, a position player prospect is always worth more than a pitching prospect, correct?

Dave Cameron: In general, yes. If the upside and future expected value is the same, you take the lower risk asset.

Comment From Cujo
Do you see any of the top OF or SP trying to take a 1 year deal or a 2 year deal with an opt out to try to hit free agency in a less cramped free agent class? Or is that too risky/stupid?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see it. Only guy who I think you could make a case for doing it would be Samardzija, but even with him, I bet he’ll get four or five years at a nice enough AAV to get him to take the guaranteed money.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that’s going to do it for me today. Enjoy Game 2 with Sullivan live blogging tonight. I’ll be back in the live blog chair next week, assuming this series goes to game 6.