Second-Guessing Starting Yoenis Cespedes in Center
There are a few phrases in baseball that come up from time to time which have no real evidence behind them, but generally inject a little enjoyment to the game as a bit of harmless trivia. One of my favorites is “As so often happens,” employed to describe that sequence when a player makes a great defensive play to close out one half-inning only to begin the next half-inning as the leadoff batter. One hears another such phrase when a defensive player has been going through struggles, perhaps has a bad reputation as a fielder, or might be nursing an injury. On those occasions when the relevant fielder is involved in a play, announcers are quick to note that “The ball will find you.” Last night, the ball found Yoenis Cespedes.
Cespedes, though turning 30 years old earlier this month, is in just his fourth year of professional baseball in the United States after defecting from Cuba. The Oakland Athletics signed Cespedes to a four-year, $36 million contract and installed him as the team’s center fielder. That particular experiment didn’t last. The A’s, perhaps trying to ease Cespedes’ transition to the majors, moved Coco Crisp from center field to left field so Cespedes could play his preferred center field. By the end of the season, the two outfielders had switched places; Cespedes, in the end, had started just 46 games in center. Until his trade to the Mets, Cespedes had recorded just 19 more starts in center field over two-and-a-half seasons. With Curtis Granderson in right, Michael Conforto in left and no designated hitter, Cespedes took over in center field as his hot bat helped the Mets to a division title.
Whether Cespedes is a more ideal fit for center field or left field is not set in stone, but the evidence we do have suggests left field is better suited to his skills. Cespedes struggled in the field in his initial transition to the majors, in both center and left field, but he adjusted to left field and quickly became one of the better left fielders in Major League Baseball.
| Pos | Inn | ARM | RngR | ErrR | UZR | UZR/150 | |
| Yoenis Cespedes | LF | 2914.1 | 21.4 | 17.3 | -1.7 | 36.9 | 17.6 |
| Alex Gordon | LF | 3601.2 | 19.1 | 17.5 | 3.8 | 40.4 | 14.2 |
| Starling Marte | LF | 3168.1 | 3.8 | 19.0 | -3.2 | 19.6 | 12.0 |
| Christian Yelich | LF | 2474 | -3.9 | 11.6 | 2.9 | 10.6 | 5.2 |
| Brett Gardner | LF | 2010 | -2.6 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.5 |
Alex Gordon, with the edge in innings, leads left fielders in UZR over the past three seasons, but on a rate basis, Cespedes nudges him out. Given his great numbers in left, the transition to center field doesn’t immediately look to be one that would challenge Cespedes unduly. We know Cespedes is fast, and he has a great arm. In the absence of more data, however, his capacity to play center field remains a matter of debate. Much of Cespedes’ value in left field is tied up in his arm, where he has thrown runners out at third and home and prevented runners from advancing due to his arm. Taking the chart above and removing his arm from the calculation, we see the following.
| Pos | Inn | ARM | RngR | ErrR | UZR | UZR-ARM | |
| Alex Gordon | LF | 3601.2 | 19.1 | 17.5 | 3.8 | 40.4 | 21.3 |
| Starling Marte | LF | 3168.1 | 3.8 | 19 | -3.2 | 19.6 | 15.8 |
| Yoenis Cespedes | LF | 2914.1 | 21.4 | 17.3 | -1.7 | 36.9 | 15.5 |
| Christian Yelich | LF | 2474 | -3.9 | 11.6 | 2.9 | 10.6 | 14.5 |
| Matt Holliday | LF | 2926.1 | -14.4 | 5.5 | 0.5 | -8.3 | 6.1 |
Cespedes’ UZR figures as a left fielder remain strong even when his arm is taken out of the equation — maybe 5-6 runs above average over the course of the season — but not elite. Center field removes much of the advantage that his arm gives him, and it renders his above-average range as a corner outfielder much more pedestrian. Kansas City — like Citi Field, Comerica Park, and Oakland’s home field — all have large outfields.
Juan Lagares is an excellent center fielder, but after an injury-filled season, and with Cespedes in the fold, he’s been reduced to a bench role. With everyone healthy, Lagares in center and Cespedes in left is about as good as a team could hope for, potentially rivaling the Royals’ duo of Lorenzo Cain and Alex Gordon. There is some Statcast information to suggest, as Mike Petriello notes, that Cespedes over Lagares in center, even with the designated hitter, is not a poor choice. Terry Collins chose Kelly Johnson and his average (99 wRC+ in 865 PA against LH 2013-2015) bat over Lagares’ defense and below average bat (career wRC+ of 86). The decision appeared to hurt Terry Collins and the Mets on the very first pitch.
On the play last night, Alcides Escobar struck the ball to deep left-center field. Michael Conforto might have had a play on the ball, but showed deference, as left fielders frequently do, to the center fielder. As the ball fell to the ground, Conforto stopped several feet short to give Cespedes an opportunity to catch it.
He didn’t.
Whether Lagares would have caught Escobar’s fly ball is another question. And it should be noted: it’s possible we’re not even comparing Cespedes to Lagares, in this case. There’s also the question of a healthy Cespedes versus a less healthy one. After injuring himself against the Cubs in the National League Championship Series, Cespedes admitted he was still compromised physically, but expressed confidence he could play, especially in the field.
From a recent piece by ESPN’s Adam Rubin:
“I still feel a little discomfort — nothing compared to what I felt in Chicago, when I had to leave the game,” Cespedes told ESPN Deportes’ Marly Rivera in Spanish on Monday. “It will not prevent me from swinging, but I am not 100 percent. I’m not playing with a full tank.
“If I can’t hit — and I do think I will be able to — I can run, I can field and I can throw. I can do everything else that I know how to do.”
Despite Cespedes’ confidence, it doesn’t take a big leap of logic to imagine that Cespedes’ shoulder injury somehow altered his ability to field Escobar’s fly ball cleanly. While there could have been other factors — miscommunication with Conforto, concern over a possible collision with Conforto, a slightly ineffecient route, a moving ball that altered its course — it certainly appears as though Cespedes also approached the ball awkwardly rather than merely lifting his injured shoulder to grab the ball on the fly. The bounce the ball took might have been bad luck, but it was the failure to make the catch that caused the bounce. Terry Collins likely saw the same thing: Lagares, who got a key hit in the ninth inning of last night’s game, will be playing center field in Game 2 of the World Series.
We have seen managers choose offense over defense throughout the playoffs and have it pay off. Kyle Schwarber was huge for the Cubs over the Cardinals and Cespedes’ bat is an important part of the Mets lineup, but inserting Kelly Johnson in the lineup is a different matter. Collins appears to be correcting his mistake, likely one both of process as well as results, but he might have gotten a bit greedy going for offense in Game 1 and it cost the team a run to start the World Series.
Craig Edwards can be found on twitter @craigjedwards.
Mets are finally starting to Mets again.
I should teach Collins how to manage post-season baseball
I got some free time…
I didn’t watch Cespedes in CF much this year, so overall he may be a pretty good fielder. But he did clank that one last night and should have gotten an error.
clank
It looks to me like Cespedes altered his route because he thought he might collide with the left fielder.
it also looked like that to me, but it’s his ball if he wants it. he should be yelling at Conforto to get away if he’s going to take it, or pulling up if he’s going to let Conforto take it.
It makes sense to go Lagares/Cespedes to essentially negate the Cain/Gordon defensive advantage, and Johnson makes sense to leave on the bench for pinch hitting late in the game against the Royals right-handed relievers or as a defensive replacement when you need to get Wright out of the game in late innings. If you really wanted Johnson’s bat in the lineup, you wouldn’t bat him 9th. A number of things Collins did seemed pretty questionable without the benefit of hindsight (e.g., pulling Niese vs a LH-heavy lineup after only 21 pitches).
Not sure whether to choose Lagares and defense over Kelly Johnson and offense should have anything to do with how good the Royals’ LF and CF are defensively.
Terry Collins put in Kelly Johnson as the DH, batting 9th. Instead, Collins could have put in Lagares batting 9th – as the CF, moving Cespedes to LF and Conforto to the DH – as this obviously makes the Mets defense better.
So the question is, is the downgrade in defense worth the upgrade in offense? KJohnson had no hits yesterday. Lagares had 2 hits, and a SB.
Plus, you also lose Kelly Johnson as a left-handed fastball hitting (he’s a good fastball hitter) pinch hitter late in the game, with almost all of the Royals pitchers being righty. Johnson was removed as the DH later in the game for Cuddyer to face a LHP.
Seems to me that Johnson’s offensive upgrade for 3 ABs was not worth the defensive downgrade, which Collins put in play in the 6th inning anyways.
The Mets are best off in the AL ballpark, especially a big park as KC – going with the best defensive arrangement in the OF. You still get an extra hitter anyways with the DH, but you keep yup the defense, which plays in these kind of games.
Had the Mets done so from the start yesterday, maybe Mets fans like me would be smiling today, instead of being fearful to be down 2-0 tonight.
Exactly. Collins did it this way for Game 2.
You’re using Kyle Schwarber as an example of where choosing offense over defense worked? I mean… he looked very bad in the Mets series.
“Kyle Schwarber was huge for the Cubs over the Cardinals”
I can see that. But Schwarber provided his own counterpoint in the very next series. I’m not knocking Craig, it’s just a peculiar example.
I agree, Schwarber was brutal in the field against the Mets, so you just hope he hits??
The article does not say anything about Schwarber’s performance against the Mets being a positive. So not only does it not say what you’re challenging it for, but it in fact implies your exact point: much like the choice of Schwarber for offense over defense paid off once and failed once, Collins’s choice here wasn’t doomed to fail from the start.
When the Royals loaded the bases with nobody out and Hosmer at the plate, I was wondering if the Mets should have considered putting Cespedes in RF, since Hosmer was most likely to hit it there, and he’s the one with the best arm by far out of the bunch (assuming his injury wouldn’t affect his ability to throw). I know the ball comes off the bat differently to RF, and he isn’t used to playing that particular corner OF position, but given the situation, I was wondering if that wouldn’t have been the best option. If the ball hit to RF wasn’t a routine catch, chances are the fielder would be too far out of position to make a strong throw home anyway. Of course, Cespedes could have played a routine out into a game winning single too, but I personally would have taken the chance, and that’s not hindsight, I was thinking this before Hosmer started hitting.
Speaking of defensive alignments on the last play, the announcers were suggesting the Mets should consider playing 5 infielders. I understand that Colon gets a lot of ground balls, but if they were going to use one of the OF guys to play in a drawn-in infield, they would probably not be very useful in fielding a grounder cleanly with such little reaction time and then getting a force at home. And I am not sure what Hosmer’s GB/FB ratio is in general. I suppose they could have subbed for someone on the bench, but with a depleted bench, they could screw themselves not that far down the line, unless they had someone that could play both IF and OF reasonably well. I don’t think they had such a candidate.
If Cespedes’ arm is that much better than Granderson’s, why doesn’t Cespedes normally play RF with Granderson in LF when Lagares is in CF?
Probably because the advantages of Cespedes’ range in CF over Granderson more than negates the importance of having the stronger arm in RF. At least that’s how I would rank the two.
Actually, I just told you why Cespedes would be in center if Lagares isn’t in the lineup. If you want the optimal defensive alignment, yes, you probably have Lagares in CF. I am not sure how much experience Cespedes has in RF — I know he’s played mostly LF and CF. The optimal offensive outfield is to have Conforto, Cespedes, and Granderson in the OF. Given those three guys, the optimal defensive alignment is probably the one I stated in my last post.
Ok. Looking at his Fangraphs page, I see that Cespedes has never played RF in the majors. Mostly LF (just under 3,400 innings) plus some CF (just over 900 innings).
That raises the question of why he’s always been a LF, if his arm is as good as everyone seems to think. I can understand why the Mets have kept him in LF and CF, though, and not moved him to RF – where he’s presumably less comfortable – in the middle of a season.
Cespedes is a bum, numbers say he is great but the eye test clearly shows otherwise. Being a Giants fan I had the opportunity to travel to the shit shack across the bay several time to watch him run drunk routes to balls. He is crap and I hope the rumors aren’t true that the Gigantes are going to sign him, because the dude is steeped in a loser, me first attitude. That played well on the A’s, Boston, and Mets but wont fly on a team that holds players to higher standards like the Giants.
Cespedes is a boy, the numbers say it is very good, but oinog clearly indicates otherwise. I’m a big fan, having the opportunity to travel across the bay shit drunk with few natural hits the ball. That’s bullshit, and I hope that the story is not true with the Gigantes sign it, because he is a loser, the first anchor. He played very well in the letter, Boston and the Mets, but will not fly into teams that hold players to a higher standard and giant.
“Center field removes much of the advantage that his arm gives him”
I don’t follow this logic. Is it saying that Cespedes has a great arm for a LF, but a more or less average arm for a CF? Or am I missing some tactical reason that a good arm matters more for a LF than a CF? Because I had though that a good arm is at least as useful, if not more so, in CF as in LF.
QuestionableVacantDamselfly is a *little* harsh, don’t you think?
I’m sorry, but could you explain how it makes any sense to subtract a negative ARM rating from a negative UZR rating and then decide that, because mathematically this person has a positive rating, this person must have a positive rating when his terrible arm strength and terrible play in the field add up to a definite negative? I am referencing Matt Holiday of course, and though I am not challenging your maths, I think it would be a better rating if you used absolute values, not actual values.
Thank you for not calling the ball Escobar hit as a home run. That’s a four-base error, no matter what the official scorer ruled. Defense is important, especially in the post-season.
Why not put Cespedes in Right? He has a much better arm than Granderson.