Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 10/8/14

Dave Cameron: We’re going back to being on time this week. The queue is now open. Fire away!

Comment From Gary
The games in the playoffs this year have been some of the more exciting and entertaining of any in recent history. It’s too bad the series themselves have been so short.

Dave Cameron: Agreed. We’ve had some fantastic games, but the lack of a Game 5 is disappointing.

Comment From Mike
Any thoughts on Robert Refsnyder taking the NYY 2B job next spring?

Dave Cameron: I’d just give it to Martin Prado.

Comment From Ned Yost
To avoid pitching Vargas/Duffy in the launch pad that is Camden Yards, should I plan on using Shields in Games 1/4/7 and strictly limiting his pitch counts?

Dave Cameron: Duffy is an extreme GB pitcher. I wouldn’t be too afraid to throw him in BAL. Short rest doesn’t work very well.

Comment From Shannon
Who have you got in the NLCS?

Dave Cameron: Orioles-Cardinals.

Dave Cameron: But I went 0-4 in the division series, so take that with the amount of salt you’d like.

Comment From _David_
Did the Dodgers really just lose a one run playoff game where their best hitter didn’t hit? Did that really, actually, happen?

Dave Cameron: The more inexplicable decision was pinch running him. I could buy a “maybe he was more injured than we knew” explanation until he ran for Ellis.

Comment From _David_
People seem to think the Mariners will jettison Saunders for a small return…He’s 27 and had a 126 wRC+…what gives?

Dave Cameron: They don’t value the things he does well, and they value highly the things he does not do.

Comment From _David_
What would you do with the Mariners SS situation next year? What do you expect the Mariners to do?

Dave Cameron: I would guess they’ll trade Miller and give the job to Taylor.

Comment From STiVo
Your article about Matt Williams’ tragicomic bullpen usage was concise, well-articulated, and devastating. Thanks. Over on the Washington Post, Thomas Boswell is trodding out the same old gobbledygook about “playoff experience.” Congrats, you all have left the old print media so far behind your analytic dust. I hope people start to read your stuff more often, and they decide to think critically.

Dave Cameron: Worth noting that Adam Kilgore wrote a fine piece on the seventh inning himself. There are good writers and bad writers both online and on the web. The key is to find the good ones, regardless of the medium.

Comment From skipperxc
I’m stuck rooting for the Orioles (as a Brewers fan, I can’t get behind Ned Yost or the Cardinals, and the Giants have two of these in the last five years). Give me hope they can take this thing all the way.

Dave Cameron: Buck Showalter > every manager left.

Comment From _David_
Was Kershaw being left in the right call? I’m not sure what kind of adjustment to give him compared to a more typical starter

Dave Cameron: I think I’d feel more strongly about not using him in the seventh if it wasn’t Adams who hit the home run. Hard to do better than elite lefty versus guy who can’t hit lefties.

Comment From Guest
Fangraphs odds has the Cardinals at 52% and the Royals at 63.2%. Do you agree?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Royals are dramatically better than the Orioles.

Comment From ncb
Why do teams spend millions on players and development only to completely ignore in game management?

Dave Cameron: Tradition, partly, but also because there aren’t a lot of guys who could manage a team in an analytical way and still do all the other things that managers need to do.

Comment From Jon
When you see managers so egregiously make fundamental statistical mistakes does it make you more sad (that the sabremetrics revolution hasn’t even made inroads on such basic decisions) or happy (that these topics will be debated much longer so you’ll have a nice job forever)

Dave Cameron: The playing field is the next frontier. These ideas have permeated almost every front office, and the decision makers are mostly thinking along these same lines. Now it will move to the coaching staff and the players. Slowly, but it will.

Comment From Gabe
Just one question: whyyyyy (was Tyler Clippard a spectator last night)? I know you already wrote an article about this, but it still outrages me, and I’m not even a Nats fan!

Dave Cameron: My best guess is that Williams didn’t trust Storen with a lead enough to not have Clippard available as a fallback plan, so he wanted both in a save situation.

Dave Cameron: But that’s still crazy.

Comment From The Big Dipper
Will there be live blogs throughout the LCS?

Dave Cameron: We’re not going to do them for every game, but we will do some. We’ll live blog all the WS games.

Comment From Jon
Your best guess at an impossible question: If Matt Williams made every decision you asked him to in the NLDS, what is the percent chance the Nationals are playing Game 5 today?

Dave Cameron: 30%? 20%? Still unlikely, but better than 0%.

Comment From Guest
Do you think there should be a longer cooling off period for players after a game before being interviewed?

Dave Cameron: I’m not sure we need post-game interviews with players at all, actually. I could easily see a future where the entire media/player dynamic is wildly different than the one we have currently.

Comment From Tom
Do you think Matt Williams didn’t know that Posey kills lefties, didn’t care about it, or simply froze in the moment and forgot he had a righty warming up in the bullpen?

Dave Cameron: Again, wild guess, but I think he wanted Thornton to pitch the whole inning. Was hoping he’d get two outs against the lefties, then either get one of Posey/Pence or stay in to turn Sandoval around and/or face Belt.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think he wanted to play the match-ups.

Comment From The Oriole Bird
I was surprised to see that the Fangraphs Playoff Odds page gives the Orioles about a 35% chance to win the ALCS vs. the Royals (using Fangraphs Projection Mode). Any idea why that might be so far from 50/50? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: Steamer really likes the Royals a lot.

Comment From Jake deBomb
you agree that DRob turns down QO and gets 4/$50M deal from someone other than NYY?

Dave Cameron: With LAD and DET’s meltdowns, I think he’s more likely to get a big payday. I don’t know about 4/$50.

Comment From Big Joe Mufferaw
Can you answer this please? Been asking for weeks. Why is a solo HR not worth 1 run in OFF?

Dave Cameron: OFF, like all of our linear weights metrics, is context-neutral, so all home runs are counted the same. The linear weight value of a home run is 1.4 runs, because many home runs are not solo shots.

Comment From Bomok
I really could use your help on this one. What would it cost the Mets to trade for Mookie Betts? How close would a package of Jon Niese, Daniel Murphy and Kevin Plawecki get?

Dave Cameron: Why would the Red Sox do that? If they trade Betts, it’s for a superstar under team control for a long time, not a collection of bit pieces.

Comment From Eric
You think the Dodgers were covering up a Puig injury or benching him was as stupid as it seemed?

Dave Cameron: Both.

Comment From Mike, of Mike and the Mechanics Fame
What is your offseason strategy if you are Washington? (Other than have a sit-down with Matt Williams about bullpen usage.)

Dave Cameron: It’s an interesting situation. They probably need to trade a starter, and Zimmermann seems like the most likely candidate. They’re going to have to balance keeping a contending team for 2015 with pushing some value to the future so that it doesn’t all fall apart in 2016 when their impending FAs leave.

Comment From Tom
Do relievers pitch better when they have set roles? Or is that too hard to study?

Dave Cameron: It’s certainly possible, and over the course of a long regular season, managing workloads to keep guys from wearing down is absolutely necessary. In October, though, you have to win the game first, and worry about workloads later.

Comment From Oscar
Should Cleveland consider taking a run at VMart this offseason? At what cost? 2/35 seems fair?

Dave Cameron: He’ll get way more than that. I wouldn’t want to pay him what he’ll cost.

Comment From David Cameron
If you were yankees FO, how would you handle the David Robertson situation knowing you have Delin Betances?

Dave Cameron: Offer the QO.

Comment From Rob
Has there ever been a postseason where the difference between the good in-game managers (Showalter/Bochy) and everyone else is so obvious? I know conventional wisdom over the last few years has been that managers don’t impact a team that much…but is it possible that the freedom to hold nothing back in short series actually makes managers very important in the postseason?

Dave Cameron: We’ve also seen a lot of bad decisions pay off, and good decisions not work. It’s easy to magnify the value of a manager when the bad decisions fail, like yesterday, but they don’t always fial.

Comment From Who is Zorbist?
Ryan Howard is moved this offseason? The Rays really need power. How much of his 60 mil remaining would Philly have to eat to get someone to trade a roll of toilet paper for him?

Dave Cameron: 59 million.

Dave Cameron: Howard is basically useless.

Comment From Matthew
What do you see the Rangers doing this offseason? Will they just hope for health and roll with what they have, or will they move some expiring assets to build for the future?

Dave Cameron: They’ll stockpile pitching and hope their hitting gets better.

Comment From Nick
Do you have any advice about baseball blogging? I have been writing throughout the season and enjoy it, but I am not sure how to make it more than a super niche thing that just my friends read.

Dave Cameron: If your goal is to make a career out of it, then you have to just keep plugging away, even if no one is reading. Write for yourself and your own enjoyment and not for the pageviews. Try to write about subjects that aren’t widely covered so you aren’t saying the same things as everyone else.

Comment From gump
“Duffy is an extreme GB pitcher” what. career 35% gb…

Dave Cameron: Huh. Not sure why I thought that, then.

Comment From mtsw
Which of the four recently-eliminated team has the highest potential to collapse and finish 2015 below .500?

Dave Cameron: The Tigers.

Comment From matt
Shouldn’t teams be more liberal in giving out QOs iven the cost certainty and lack of exposure given the one year commitment (not to mention it opens the possibility of a draft pick)? Seems like any projected 2+ win player would be worth it, no?

Dave Cameron: Most teams in baseball can’t afford $15 million for an average player.

Comment From HipolitoPichardo
Is there any way to tell how good prospective managers might be tactically absent prior managerial experience? I feel so many of them are so poor because they’re getting the jobs based on the soft factors that can be observed pre-hire.

Dave Cameron: I know some teams actually run through simulations during their managerial interviews. I think it might be worth having a system like Diamond Mind in place to make coaches try out different strategies in a simulator, even after they are hired.

Comment From Jimbo
Dave, I’ve been arguing with a friend who dimisses the playoffs due to the results being too random. I countered by saying Kershaw is the closest thing to a “sure bet” we’ve seen on the mound since prime Pedro. Now that I’m wrong, how do I convince myself that in a whole– MLB playoffs aren’t basically a dice roll?

Dave Cameron: They are.

Comment From Oruas
In light of the recently released Steamer Projections, I have a feature request: please show wRC+ in the projection page. It’s available in the individual player projections, but not in overall projection pages.

Dave Cameron: Already been requested, and should be added in the not too distant future.

Comment From Jimmers
Why are people making such a big deal of the short rest thing? The yankees win the WS with 3 SPers in 2009. They all pitched quite well.

Dave Cameron: Because those aren’t the only pitchers who have ever pitched in the postseason on short rest, and history shows that guys who do so generally perform poorly.

Comment From LarryA
Am I allowed to be sick of always seeing the Giants and Cards in the NLCS?

Dave Cameron: Based on the questions in the live blog last night, you aren’t alone.

Comment From AHume92
The talk of media and analyzing manager tactics leads to a question I feel gets neglected too often: Why is the journalism industry not teaching sports fans/analysts how to write and putting them in the MSM instead of the other way around?

Dave Cameron: Writing is hard.

Comment From Chris
Why is the knee-jerk response to fire every manager who does something “wrong” in the playoffs? Why not try to see if they can learn from their mistakes and get better? Matt Williams was a rookie coach and got his team pretty far (and in reality his offense cost him the series, not his pitching). I get that this doesn’t happen often, but at least give them a chance?

Dave Cameron: He was given a chance. He failed.

Dave Cameron: Might he get better? Sure. The Nationals can’t really be wasting the primes of their best players on that hope, though.

Comment From Steve
When you said Showalter is better than anyone left, how would you say he is better than Bochy?

Dave Cameron: Showalter wouldn’t have let Vogelsong pitch the 6th inning last night.

Comment From aperrotta
You said you are 0-4 in picking the playoff series. How’d you do on the play-in games?

Dave Cameron: I missed on those too.

Comment From EinDC
The save should be eliminated. Everywhere.

Dave Cameron: Agree, but MLB will have to come up with a new way to pay relievers.

Comment From Nelson
Can you explain cather framing in 1 sentence for me? Is it just the catcher moving his glove after catching the ball?

Dave Cameron: It’s actually the absence of movement. Glove/body movement make the umpire less likely to call a pitch a strike, so the good framers are the guys who are the most still in receiving.

Comment From AHume92
Why don’t teams put an analytical mind in as bench coach to handle strategy (i.e. take over what a manager does in-game now) and let a “manager” do all the other stuff the strategy guy may not be good at?

Dave Cameron: I think “coordinator” type positions, like we have in football, could work, but the manager is always going to demand final say.

Comment From Big Joe
In your opinion is Mike Mussina a HOFer? Seems like a no brainer to me, but dude gets no love!

Dave Cameron: Absolutely no question.

Comment From Guest
Do you think the Nationals at least look around for new manger this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Comment From Walt Jocketty
Reds beat writer John Fay proposed the Reds target Scott Van Slyke, who hit .297/.386/.525 in 212 at-bats, for left. Can you see him playing everyday in Cincy next year?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think the Dodgers will probably deal him.

Comment From AHume92
Eliminating interviews would require journos to write substantive articles after games instead of quote-filled fluff. Not sure how that would work on a print-media deadline.

Dave Cameron: Print media deadlines won’t exist forever.

Comment From Chris
Of the proposed rule changes to speed up the game, which one do you like the least?

Dave Cameron: Probably skipping the intentional walk pitches.

Comment From Andrew
Does Jonathan Papelbon on a (likely) 2 year/25 million dollar deal have positive trade value after the bullpen breakdowns we’ve seen?

Dave Cameron: Not even close.

Comment From Guest
What was your reaction to the Adams HR?

Dave Cameron: Holy crap.

Comment From Guest
How likely is it that the Reds make a run for Mookie?With either Cueto or Latos being the main piece?

Dave Cameron: Weekly reminder that you can’t get Mookie Betts for a one year player.

Comment From RAJ for GM of the year
The Astros next year: over .500 or under?

Dave Cameron: Under.

Comment From Joe
Why would the Nats have trouble keeping their guys? Lerner has more money than god.

Dave Cameron: He doesn’t spend it on his baseball team.

Comment From THE average sports fan
If Nats put Zimmermann and Reds put Cueto on market, who brings more?

Dave Cameron: Close, but probably ZImmermann. Cueto has more recent health issues.

Comment From Guest
What makes you so gun shy when it comes to giving V-Mart a big contract?

Dave Cameron: 36 year old DH with bad knees who just had a season dramatically different than anything he’d done recently. What could possibly go wrong?

Comment From RAJ for GM of the year
A Yoenis Cespedes extension: does 7/140 get it done?

Dave Cameron: That would be an atrocious conract.

Comment From EP
What is the Giants’ optimal outfield configuration without Pagan and Morse? With Morse?

Dave Cameron: Morse isn’t an outfielder. He should just PH/DH if they add him to the roster going forward.

Comment From David
Forget workloads. The argument about pitcher roles is that they won’t perform well in situations they aren’t used to. That may very well be true, but if it is then that’s an even greater argument for experimenting with non-traditional usage during the regular season … so you find out which guys CAN be effective come all-hands-on-deck situations. *SMH*

Dave Cameron: It’s demonstrably not true. Until Soriano’s meltdown, Storen was “the seventh inning guy”, and was awesome at it all year. There’s literally no reason to think he, or anyone else, couldn’t pitch in the seventh inning anymore just because he spent a few months getting saves.

Comment From The Big Dipper
Gut feeling where Tomas ends up and what are the chances the Yanks get him?

Dave Cameron: Philly.

Comment From Nelson
Why cant the nats keep Zimmermann. Someones going to pay him, why cant it be them?

Dave Cameron: Too many guys with big contracts coming due. You can’t keep them all.

Comment From The Big Dipper
What would you be doing if you weren’t a blogger?

Dave Cameron: I was an accountant before this became my job. Probably something in finance.

Comment From Dave Camerons Puppy
Can you think of a recent historical comparison to how we’ll look back on the Tigers? Team of a couple of superstars that never won it all. Maybe the 90s Indians?

Dave Cameron: Or late-90s Mariners.

Comment From Eric
Over the next 10 years, Team A wins 90 games every year while Team B wins 105 games five times and are sub-.500 the rest of the time. Which team wins more World Series?

Dave Cameron: Team A.

Comment From Hogie (DC)
If they can get J. Zimmermann extended, do the Sox take him for Betts?

Dave Cameron: No, because he wouldn’t extend at a price that adds significant trade value.

Comment From Eric
Given how random the playoffs are, a GM should basically never go “all-in” if it impacts the team’s chances in subsequent seasons, right?

Dave Cameron: You should always balance present and future value. When you have a chance to win, you want to give yourself the best chance possible without mortgaging the future.

Comment From Russel Martin
Am I playing in Pittsburgh in 2015

Dave Cameron: I can’t see it.

Comment From Eric
Any chance that mainstream fans lose interest in baseball if they feel that there’s not enough of a connection between how good a team is and how well they do in the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: The NCAA Tournament suggests no.

Comment From Guest
Is there a reason that coin flip mode in the playoff projections doesn’t give all four teams left exactly 50% chance to win LCS and 25% to win the world series?

Dave Cameron: Home field advantage.

Comment From personable person
Hey Dave, I ran this by Jeff yesterday and he seemed a little intrigued so I want to run it by you. I hate trade proposals but here goes: The A’s are in kind of rebuild/go-for-it-again limbo. The Red Sox seem poised to make a run of it though, and they need a 3B. Would a Donaldson for Betts trade make sense? There would of course be some finer details to the deal, but Donaldson is going to get too expensive for the A’s in a year or two probably and he’s right at his peak. Betts would give the A’s cheap value over a while, and the Red Sox would get a peak-ish 3B for a solid run. Any thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the Red Sox would do it. Donaldson is a Super Two, so he’s about to get expensive, and he’s an older player who has probably already peaked.

Comment From Beau
Is there any evidence that a good bullpen is more important in the playoffs? Or is that just a convenient narrative for this year?

Dave Cameron: It definitely is. http://www.fangraphs.com/bl…

Comment From neal
we’re going to have bad fake trade offers for mookie betts from fans of all 29 teams aren’t we

Dave Cameron: I think so.

Comment From Dude
Why is Yoenis so damn overrated? People talk about him like he’s a star when he’s closer to BJ than Justin.

Dave Cameron: Home Run Derby wins.

Comment From HipolitoPichardo
Re: Mike Morse, can you think of any other examples of players who arrived in the Majors as shortstops and ended up providing more negative defensive value?

Dave Cameron: Gary Sheffield?

Comment From Guest
We all know that Kershaw’s postseason numbers should not effect his MVP voting, but do you think the writers will take that into account when voting?

Dave Cameron: Votes were due before the postseason started.

Comment From The Big Dipper
Profar or Bogaerts?

Dave Cameron: Bogaerts.

Comment From Richie
Relievers take much longer to warm up than anyone outside a bullpen/clubhouse acknowledges. October doesn’t change that. Other than giving your closer the 8th as well as the 9th, there’s no other change that really can be made.

Dave Cameron: Buck Showalter used Andrew Miller in the fifth inning last week.

Dave Cameron: So, no, that’s not true.

Comment From Ben
yo you REALLLLLY like mookie betts, did you know that?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I know, I’m crazy for thinking that a good athlete with a great approach at the plate, elite contact skills, line drive power, and excellent baserunning skills is valuable.

Comment From Joseph
The Sox wouldn’t move Betts for a 7 win player? We truly have reached peak prospect.

Dave Cameron: There’s two +7 WAR players in baseball: Trout and Kershaw. Donaldson is a +5 WAR player if you believe he’s an elite defensive third baseman, +4 WAR if you don’t.

Comment From CapitalCCloser
If MLB stopped considering saves an official stat today, how long would it take bullpen usage to be corrected?

Dave Cameron: A while. It has become ingrained.

Comment From Brandon
You forgot at league minimum prices, re: Your Betts Crush

Comment From Jon
Strange to think that the ONE guy everyone wants their team to trade for actually has some value, eh?

Comment From Del Martin
Can you please stop taking so many questions about Betts?

Comment From aaa
+7 might be too far, but he’s crossed 6 WAR for two years in a row. I don’t understand how you’re just knocking two wins off Donaldson’s value.

Dave Cameron: Regression to the mean.

Dave Cameron: If you don’t use it in forecasting, you’ll get a lot of stuff wrong.

Comment From Prich
Is Roy Halladay a HOFer?

Dave Cameron: 100% yes.

Dave Cameron: Okay, off to get some lunch.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone.