Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/12/14

Dave Cameron: The offseason is in full swing, and we’re probably not that far away from the first few dominoes falling. We’ll spend an hour chatting about different moves, starting in about 15 minutes.

Comment From hscer
Thank you for preparing me for those Jordan Zimmermann trade rumors yesterday. I would guess we haven’t heard the last of those.

Dave Cameron: I don’t really see the Cubs as a good fit, but teams with middle infield depth (especially LH middle infielders) could be a good partner for the Nationals. The Nationals in an interesting spot where it actually might make sense for them to degrade their 2015 team on purpose.

Comment From Mike P.
Can Ervin Santana do better this time around?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think so. Last year, he got screwed by poor representation, and his silly $100 million ask scared off all the teams that would have given him $50 million. By the time his agent realized they’d screwed up, the money was spent elsewhere.

Comment From Guest
What is the best contract of the free agency era? The worst?

Dave Cameron: Well, it’d be easy to point out some low dollar contract where the guy turned into something that no one saw coming; Edwin Encarnacion, for instance. But if we’re talking real expenditures, the Adrian Beltre deal is going to be up there.

Dave Cameron: The worst deal seems like A-Rod’s current contract, probably.

Comment From Tanyon Sturtze
What is a realistic return for Hellickson? Are we looking at lower-level prospects, 40-man guys, or what?

Dave Cameron: Two arb years of a mediocre pitcher coming off an injury; he shouldn’t cost a ton.

Comment From clay
Moving Gattis seems like a smart move for the braves considering his limited value with an NL team. Realistically, what kind of trade/players do you think the Braves are going to target?

Dave Cameron: They’re probably going to need a whole new outfield next year, so perhaps sending him to a team with an excess there might make sense. The A’s seem like they could be a fit, given how willing they’ve been to punt defense behind the plate lately.

Comment From Joe
Looking at 2015, it’s occurred to me how there is a surprising lack of bad teams. Honestly, looking at the AL, there is only 1 out of the 15 teams (Twins) that I would be shocked to reach .500 next year. Do you see this as a reluctance of teams to have fire sales and rebuild or is it just a blip in the radar and we’ll go back to seeing more clearly “bad” teams?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, MLB is currently in a position where the costs of being bad and the reward for being mediocre have both gone way up. Teams are prioritizing putting decent teams on the field over long-term rebuilds that cost them attendance/television dollars.

Comment From Show Your Work!
Heyward to the Cubs has been swirling for a bit now. In your humble estimation, what kind of deal makes that happen?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see the Cubs giving up a ton of talent for a walk year guy.

Comment From Guest
Justin Upton would fetch T. Walker still?

Dave Cameron: Not anymore, no.

Comment From Felipe`
Do you think there is any real traction in the Elvis Andrus to the Yankees rumors and if so, what do you think it would take to get it done, talent wise?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. Yankees already have a lot of money on the books. There are cheaper ways for them to find a decent SS.

Comment From Ron Maroon
In the After Dark Chat last night, I saw someone suggested Tulo for Simmons, Gattis and Sims. I actually liked it for both sides, the guys last night said Colorado wouldnt want Gattis and he was the issue in the trade. What are your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t do that if i was the Braves. They don’t have the resources to spend their payroll money upgrading at shortstop with so many other problems on the roster.

Comment From David
With yesterday’s Jordan Zimmermann to the Cubs rumor since debunked, it got me thinking about what Zim’s value is. Many say he won’t fetch much of a return because he’s only got one year but if you look at the numbers he’s a legit ace. If the Nats can’t get a sizable return, they won’t give him away. So what happens? What’s a return look like?

Dave Cameron: Even one year of a “legit ace” won’t get you as much you think. Zimmermann is worth an interesting young player, but you’re not getting an elite prospect for a walk year guy.

Comment From GSon
Good afternoon Dave. a bit of a cold snap heading your way this morning/afternoon to the west of the piedmong… BRRR… First question of the day.. The Cubs interest in Jordan Zimmerman has to exclude a guy like Addison Russell, Yes?.. What would a good deal for both clubs look like?

Dave Cameron: If the Cubs valued a 2015 starting pitcher over Russell, they would have just kept Samardzija, who is nearly as good as Zimmermann and will make $7 million less this season, plus would cost less to extend. There’s zero chance they’d give up Russell for Samardzija, and the fact that they shipped Shark out for a long-term piece just a few months should remind people about how they value young talent versus short term pitching upgrades.

Comment From Forsyth
If you were going to do a trade value series this offseason, where would Mookie fall? Top 10?

Dave Cameron: Top 25ish, I think.

Comment From Vslyke
Isn’t it a bad sign for the Braves FO that they consider Bethancourt to be a better defensive catcher than Gattis despite the numbers all saying the opposite?

Dave Cameron: The numbers don’t say the opposite.

Comment From giantsfan
Brandon Philips as a good trade candidate for 3B for the Giants if Pablo leaves…yea or no?

Dave Cameron: No. Reds probably don’t move him and no reason to move him off 2B.

Comment From Sirras One
Think the Mets manage to swing a trade for a shortstop? If so, who moves to NY and who’s sent packing?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they’ll land a guy like Gregorius or Miller. Wouldn’t be surprised if it ended up as a three way trade, where they shipped one of their young arms somewhere else, and Arizona or Seattle got a big leaguer back from the third team.

Comment From JBD
Are you excited for your forthcoming article on your NL MVP ballot? I liked your Manager of the Year ballot article… but as you mentioned, there’s so much we don’t know when it comes to manager value.

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t say I’m excited. It seems like the majority of reactions to these things is anger from the fan base of the guys you didn’t vote as highly as they wanted. More than anything else, I’m expecting to get yelled at by fans from a few citiies.

Comment From _David_
Where would Hanley play on the Mariners?

Dave Cameron: Probably shortstop in 2015, outfield in 2016+.

Comment From Prospector
The Alderson front office is generally well-regarded within the sabermetric community. So what do we make of of the Cuddyer move that a) overpays for a limited and injury-prone player on top of b) forfeiting a $10 million value first round draft pick?

Dave Cameron: I have a piece going up on JABO today talking about just this thing.

Comment From Prich
Would you put the odds of Tulo getting dealt at better than 50%? Seems to me you don’t announce your franchise guy is available if you aren’t serious about your willingness to move him…

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t think Colorado would be letting these rumors gain steam if they weren’t serious about making a deal. I’d guess 80% he gets moved.

Comment From Nick
Is the framework of John Danks for Matt Kemp + money a possibility?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. Dodgers probably prefer to get talent back, and John Danks sucks.

Comment From STiVo
During Szymborski’s chat on Monday, Dan mentioned “there’s something about the DH that makes hitting *harder* than it would be for the exact same player playing a position at the same time.” If he’s correct, does the positional adjustment hurt DHs relative to their actual value?

Dave Cameron: This has been pretty well studied, and Dan is correct, there is a DH penalty, just like there’s a pinch-hitting penalty. This is already built into the positional adjustment in WAR, however.

Comment From Mac Muffin
Hypothetical trade idea: could the A’s, for example, have agreed to send Cespedes to Boston through the end of the season, then have him be the property of a 3rd team next year? Can 3 way trades work like that?

Dave Cameron: No, you can’t make trades that are based on future transactions. All elements of a deal have to be announced at the time of the trade.

Comment From Guest +1
Just curious, what makes you say it would make sense for the Nationals to degrade their 2015 team on purpose?

Dave Cameron: They currently project as a great team for 2015 that will take a big hit in 2016. MLB’s current system doesn’t offer significant rewards for being great rather than being good, so it’s probably beneficial to level things out a bit, and give themselves two shots at being solid rather than keeping most of their eggs in a one year bucket.

Comment From Wrens bleeding Hart
What is a realistic package we could ask for, for Heyward if we decide we cannot sign him long term?

Dave Cameron: Walk year guys who want big extensions just don’t command that much in trade. He’s good enough that he’d get you one good prospect or a couple of solid guys with questions.

Comment From MacGruber
Does the escalation of salaries for what I’ll call the Cuddyer crowd argue for more of a Jocketty-esque “stars and scrubs” model? Just seems like the difference in salary between the Cuddyers (and soon to be Morses) of the world and the non-tenders or scrap heap guys out there is getting harder to justify than splurging for the really big names.

Dave Cameron: The difference isn’t in the annual salary; it’s in the years attached to those salaries. Yeah, you could look at Cuddyer/Colon and say the Mets would be better off with a $20 million player instead (and they would be), but you can’t get $20 million players to sign two year deals; you have to give them five or six year deals.

Dave Cameron: That’s why you want to look at the price of the entire contracts. The AAV for a star might be lower, but the years of dead money at the end often make them just as expensive as signing mid-level guys for fewer years at half the salary.

Comment From JP
What kind of defender do you think Matt Kemp is right now as a corner OF (in terms of runs)? Is he worth his contract?

Dave Cameron: -5 to -10. And not even close.

Comment From Kevin
Do you think a wOBA-style stat would be feasible/useful for pitchers?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, we’ll have wOBA allowed for pitchers on the site at some point. The problem is its not defense-independent, so it strips out sequencing but includes defense.

Comment From Prich
Miller, Maurer and a B prospect for Zimmerman and Souza, who says no?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Nationals, but a Miller/Souza swap with other stuff included could help both teams.

Comment From Grosannah
Hey Dave — what’s a sane deal for Ryan Howard that wouldn’t be a diaster for the team that gets him? i.e. what could Philly reasonably send along that makes Howard’s negative production worthwhile? A B-level prospect? Major League talent? Follow-up: What type of team (rich, rebuilding) could you see this happening with?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t even roster Ryan Howard for the league minimum. He’s worth less than nothing.

Comment From monty
Who is more frugal between you and your wife

Dave Cameron: I’m the cost conscious one.

Comment From Mike
Not to pound the Zimm rumor into the ground – but according to a DC report today, the Nats are looking for “at least three really good, young, big-league-ready players” in return for Zimmermann (for 1 year). How doesn’t Rizzo get slammed like RAJ?

Dave Cameron: Amaro needs to trade Hamels; Rizzo doesn’t need to trade Zimmermann.

Dave Cameron: And I would guess that the Nationals would, in fact, trade Zimmermann for less than three good young MLB ready players. Depending on how good and how young, it might only take one.

Comment From Grand Admiral Braun
Where do you stand on evaluating exclusive negotiating rights in trades? To clarify, hypothetically let’s say that the Cubs deal Baez to Washington for Zimmermann. Do you, Dave, look at the deal as many years of cost control for Baez for ONE year of Zimmermann at 16.5M OR that one year + the fact that the Cubs could have a better shot a re-signing Zimmermann?

Dave Cameron: You absolutely have to factor in an amount of value for the exclusive negotiating rights, and if the guy has already said he’ll sign at an agreed upon price (like R.A. Dickey did in the TOR deal), then you just treat it like those deals are included in the trade. But if a guys asking price is significantly above market value, acquiring the rights to be the team that overpays him isn’t worth anything.

Dave Cameron: This is the Cole Hamels problem. Everyone talks about how he has all this trade value because he’s under contract for four more years, but you don’t really want the last year or even last two years of that contract, probably. You’re acquiring two years of value, really.

Comment From Clark
Cubs could trade for a walk year guy. Adrian Gonzalez would be the model.

Dave Cameron: A walk year who agrees to a below market extension as part of the trade, yes. But there aren’t very many of those.

Comment From Jeff
Dave, what kind of return would you expect for Carlos Gonzalez? Reasonably team-friendly contract, but injury questions and concerns about playing outside of the friendly confines of Coors Field?

Dave Cameron: I think he’d bring back a lot less than Tulo. 3/53 for a good-not-great guy with injury concerns is not a huge bargain. There would be teams who wanted him, but I don’t think the bidding would get crazy.

Dave Cameron: Which is why I think they might keep him and trade Tulo.

Comment From BassmanUW
It seems to me that only a few teams can really do the rebuild by being terrible for a few years without it really hurting their bottom line, and they fall into two types: (1) teams that will only face relatively modest declines in attendance during the down period and will quickly rebound once the team is competitive, like the Cubs, or (2) teams that don’t have fans show up whether the team is good or bad, like the Rays. In other words, isn’t another risk for the Astros extreme rebuilding strategy that fans still don’t show up at early to mid-2000s numbers until the team has continued success for a couple of years?

Dave Cameron: Yep. You can absolutely torch a fan base with a prolonged rebuild so that it hurts your ability to produce revenues long term. See the Indians as an example.

Comment From STiVo
Is Clubhouse Confidential off the air?

Dave Cameron: I believe so, yes.

Comment From KCDave
I’m still reeling over your Michael Morse to KC prediction. What other realistic way could KC address their right field situation, as well as replacing Shields?

Dave Cameron: Morse was to replace Butler as DH, not Aoki in RF. I think they should just start Dyson.

Comment From STiVo
Somewhat strangely, doesn’t Zimmermann’s value peak in mid-summer, even though he’ll have fewer games to go on his contract? (In other words, teams who think having one more very good starter will push their playoff needle a lot will pay a premium.)

Dave Cameron: It’d be almost impossible to convince a team in contention that trading their #2 starter in the midst of a playoff run was a good idea. The Nationals can trade Zimmermann this winter and not take a massive PR hit for it; they can’t do that in July.

Comment From Joe
Will Russell Martin be the next major free agent to sign? Given that multiple teams seem to be motivated to sign him quickly and that there are no real alternatives on the market, it doesn’t seem like there’s much of a reason to wait much longer.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think he and Sandoval are the first two main free agents off the board.

Comment From Twiddling Thumbs Until March
When does your annual trade value series come out?

Dave Cameron: I run it every July during the All-Star break. Given how many questions there are about it, though, I’m thinking about maybe running a quick update next week, just so people aren’t still citing information from a few months back.

Comment From Tacoby Bellsbury
Fans are shocked SHOCKED that their walk year guys wont net them top prospects now, which is exactly why you trade these guys before the walk year. Cubs got it right on Shark.

Dave Cameron: Yep. The last chance to land an elite young player in return for an expiring contract is the trade deadline before their walk year. Teams will pay to get two playoff runs from the guy they’re acquiring, but not one.

Comment From Anthony
Next Mets move now that Cuddyer is in the fall?

Dave Cameron: The Cuddyer move makes more sense if you were already planning on punting your #1 pick to sign someone else anyway. I know they’ve prepped everyone for an offseason of low spending, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that was just to undersell/overdeliver and they went after a Scherzer/Shields type.

Comment From Mike
O/U 4.5 Phillies currently under contract who get traded this offseason? And who’d be your guesses?

Dave Cameron: I’ll say over. Hamels and Byrd are basically sure things to be traded. Domonic Brown definitely seems like he’s gone too, and someone will take Ryan Howard for $1 million or something. With those guys all traded, I wouldn’t be surprised if either/both Rollins or Utley waived their no-trade.

Comment From Jim
Does a trade involving Francisco Lindor for Carlos Gonzalez as their core components an overpay for the Indians given health concerns? Seems like it could be relevant if the Rockies actually wanted to move both Tulo and Gonzalez.

Dave Cameron: CarGo is not worth Lindor.

Comment From Joe
I don’t really understand why the Mets are so desperate for a SS. Wilmer Flores had a fine season in 2014 as a 22 year old and is projected by Steamer to have an above average (for a SS) wRC+ of 98 with a 2.0 WAR next year as a 24 year old.Is there something wrong with him that I’m not getting? I would certainly rather him to Gregorius.

Dave Cameron: Scouts think his defense at SS is atrocious, while WAR does not. That’s the main area of disagreement.

Comment From Richard
What could the Reds expect to get back for 1 year of Johnny Cueto at $10M salary this year? I happen to believe it’s less less of a haul than people in Cincinnati believe it is. And would they likely get more at the trade deadline?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I suggested Cespedes/young arm/salary relief, since they don’t want to punt 2015. Rosenthal noted that trading Cueto in the year they’re hosting the All-Star Game is probably untenable.

Comment From Sam
What do you think the Mariners could get in return from the Mets for Miller or Taylor? Any specific names come to mind?

Dave Cameron: Problem is the Mariners and Mets kind of want the same thing: RH power OF. It’s why the Mets signed Cuddyer. If they had the kind of players the Mariners wanted, they wouldn’t have needed to sign Cuddyer. That’s why I won’t be surprised if a three way trade happens.

Dave Cameron: Mets send a young arm somewhere, third team sends a RH OF to Seattle, M’s send an SS to NY.

Comment From Jake is daBomb
regarding Brad Miller, Met fans want to know more about his defense. looks like avg range and avg arm. Also looked too much like Ackley at the plate the few times I saw him TBH. Is there a reason to expect he’ll be any better than Wilmer Flores?

Dave Cameron: His range and arm are actually above average; he just makes too many errors. He’s basically some polish away from being an above average SS, and he’s something close to a league average offensive player right now. There aren’t that many shortstops in baseball that have that combination.

Comment From Forsyth
Would you trade Bogaerts, Betts, Owens, and Middlebrooks to the Rox for Cargo and Tulo if you’re Cherrington? Would that get it done?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t even consider it.

Dave Cameron: (If I’m Boston)

Comment From jda
I think STiVO’s point was that you guys may be penalizing the DH more than you ought to be, due to the supposed increased difficulty a DH has hitting compared to the same guy playing the field. For reference, Dan Szymborski’s DH penalty in the WAR calculations are different from FanGraphs’ for precisely this reason.

Dave Cameron: I don’t know what Dan’s DH penalty is, but I’ve never seen any evidence that suggests ours is too low.

Comment From Jake is daBomb
And I think the Mets would already have Didi or Miller if they were willing to part with Montero. They certainly aren’t giving up more than that, and it’s questionable whether they’re even discussing him. For AZ, they gave up Bauer for Didi so there is pressure on them not to cave in a deal for him. For the M’s, Chris Taylor and Ketel Marte may make it easier to part with Miller.

Dave Cameron: You’re overvaluing your pitchers.

Comment From JBD
Do you think the Nats try to keep Asdrubal?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think so.

Comment From Mark
If someone offered you an even-money bet on whether any player accepts a QO in 2015, would you take the bet? It seems like teams are getting more and more aggressive with the QO every year.

Dave Cameron: Free agents really don’t want one year deals. I think we see that with Cuddyer taking the equivalent of an extra year at $6 million just to get that extra year.

Dave Cameron: I think that’s the part of the QO system that the MLBPA will fight to have changed; make it a multi-year offer and it changes everything.

Comment From Nik
Amaro doesn’t need to trade Hamels. Gillick has stated that the team is looking to be competitive again in 2017. Hamels is signed through 2019.

Dave Cameron: And by 2017, Hamels probably won’t be worth his contract. He’s a depreciating asset on a team that should value future wins more than current wins. Keeping him makes zero sense.

Comment From Mike
How is a guy with a 93 wRC+ over 650 PAs worth less than nothing. That’s bonkers.

Dave Cameron: It’s almost like there’s more to baseball than hitting.

Comment From JP
RE: Kemp – if he’s a -5 to -10 defender and good for a 130 wRC+, isn’t that kind of close to being worth 5/105?

Dave Cameron: That’s a -5 to -10 defender in LF, which makes him like a -15 defender compared to average. A 130 wRC+ equals about +20 runs with the bat over 600 PA, so that would make him slightly above average. So no, not worth 5/105. Maybe 5/75. Maybe.

Dave Cameron: I do think the crowd’s 5/60 estimate from this morning is a little low, given how much teams overpay for RH power right now.

Comment From Xolo
In a case like Zimmermann’s, can the Cubs talk to his agent and find out how willing he is to sign an extension before making the trade?

Dave Cameron: Nope, that’s tampering. Teams can agree to a 72 hour window after a trade has been agreed to where the two sides can discuss an extension, but you can’t talk to another team’s player without permission.

Comment From Nik
So if you don’t want the last 2 years of Hamels, you probably don’t want the last 4 years of Scherzer and Lester. Can’t have it both ways.

Dave Cameron: You don’t have to trade for Scherzer or Lester.

Comment From GSon
Kluber versus Felix..who do ya gut tonight, Dave?..

Dave Cameron: Felix wins. I think either is a fine choice.

Comment From STiVo
So the 2015 Steamer projection for Addison Russell has him with 1 PA, but a 6.3% walk rate and 19% K rate. Given that this is mathematically impossible, should I assume that Steamer would project those rate stats regardless of how many PA he gets in the depth chart?

Dave Cameron: Yes, the projected rate stats and playing time are separate. The playing time just means Russell isn’t listed on the Cubs depth chart.

Comment From Guest
That description of Brad Miller seems a lot like Ian Desmond. Good range and arm, too many errors, has power. Not sure if the comp extends beyond that though

Dave Cameron: Miller doesn’t have Desmond’s power. I’d say he’s more like Peak Asdrubal Cabrera, just with a better glove.

Comment From David
Can a team sign and deal a international, ie, thomas to a team for a different player?

Dave Cameron: No, you can’t trade a player immediately after signing them. And if the acquiring team really wanted to sign the international player to the contract, they’d just do that instead and keep the player they had to trade to get him in this hypothetical.

Comment From Agua
Who brings back the best return, Kennedy, Cashner or Tyson Ross?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess Cashner.

Comment From Lenny
You think V-Mart re-signs w/ DET or heads to SEA?

Dave Cameron: I can’t see the Tigers letting him leave.

Comment From Jake is daBomb
Miller’s range seems meh, at least by range factor at minor league level. arm looks pretty average to me too. somewhere along the line he got overrated defensively I think… probably about the time he began to hit a lot.

Dave Cameron: There might not be a less useful metric than minor league range factor.

Comment From Chris
So which of Zimmermann, Span, Fister or Desmond does get dealt? Cause one of them is going – Nats need to cut payroll.

Dave Cameron: I’d guess Zimmermann. He brings the most back.

Dave Cameron: Okay, going to call it a day. Thanks for hanging out everyone.