Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/16/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: The off-season is upon us, so we should have plenty to talk about. Also, I’ll be revealing my NL Cy Young ballot tonight when the award is announced, so I can’t really answer questions about that this week.

Bret: You’ve been quite down on the Jays signing of Kendrys Morales, and I do get the logic. Dan Szymborski, somewhat in contrast, found that his ZIPs projection defended the move, figuring that Morales would be worth something like 2/1.5/1 WAR in the three seasons in Toronto. That shouldn’t change your take, but do you think the Jays are looking at similar projections that make it defensible on their end?

Dave Cameron: Dan uses the same positional adjustment for 1B and DH, so he’s going to have higher projected values for every DH than we are. But even with that boost, I don’t buy Morales as a +2 WAR player at age-34.

Dave Cameron: You shouldn’t ignore that ZIPS thinks the deal is okay, and you shouldn’t ignore that Steamer thnks it’s atrocious. But when the most optimistic forecast thinks its isn’t awful, that’s not a great signing.

Hans: Odds that the Braves trade for an ace this winter and the name of said ace?

Dave Cameron: Slim to none. I think they’re just kicking tires to see if they can get a deal.

Hannah Hochevar: Love the FA do’s and don’t’s. Makes me want Turner even as an O’s fan. Would signing him and moving Manny back to ss be a thing?

Dave Cameron: Well, I wouldn’t have thought Machado back to SS was likely, but he played pretty well there last year when Hardy was hurt. So maybe? Feels like O’s more likely to spend on other things, though.

Uncle Jimbo: Do you think the Cubs knew Rondon was compromised when they paid the premium for Chapman, or was it a coincidence that Rondon when on the DL five outings after the trade?

Dave Cameron: They probably knew.

Asking for a Friend: Do you think King Felix will return to form or are we seeing the early decline of a former ace?

Dave Cameron: The lack of fastball velocity finally caught up to him. I think this is mostly what he is now.

Matt: How will the Cubs outfield shake up in 2017?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess Soler gets traded and a veteran CF is acquired, so it will be Schwarber in LF, veteran in CF, Heyward in RF, Almora as 4th OF

Dave Cameron: And Zobrist bounces between 2B/OF again.

Guest: Thoughts on the JD Martinez to the Giants rumors? What would it take for them to get that deal done?

Dave Cameron: Martinez doesn’t really strike me as an SF kind of player.

BK: Any chance the Blue Jays bring back Bautista to play first? Smoak is essentially a sunk cost at this point and Morales isn’t going to be seeing much of the field.

Dave Cameron: Could see it happening if Bautista’s market tanks.

Dave Cameron: If no one wants Bautista to play the OF, I’m not sure where he fits. Maybe Houston?

Matt: Would Jorge Soler, Eloy Jimenez, Jeimer Candelario, and a Low A pitcher be enough for Chris Archer?

Dave Cameron: No.

Kal Daniels: Which player of the last 30 years or so would you love to see get a career re-do?

Dave Cameron: Eric Davis.

JT: How serious do you think the rumors about the Tigers selling are? It seems odd to sell now, they almost made the playoffs last year, have the same team coming back and are locked into all of these contracts forever, why not go for it one last time? Do Kinsler, JD or Verlander get you anything in a trade to make it worthwhile to start tearing down?

Dave Cameron: Well, I think there’s some merit in taking advantage of a seller’s market to tear it down and get something now rather than try to move even older players a year from now when there is more available. But if they’re going to do it, they should go the whole way. Cabrera, Verlander, both Martinezes, Kinsler… blow it up. Or keep everyone and go again next year. Don’t go in between.

Erik: The Phillies have both money and time. Are they the team best placed to take a shot at a Carlos Gomez rebound? If it works out, they get a good deadline trade piece (or a contributor to a wild card push in 2018). If it fails, all they lose is money, which they have more than enough of. Good fit?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s not a bad idea. If I were them, though, I’d probably be spending on relievers instead. Those are the guys who are super easy to move at the deadline if they’re pitching well.

Netflix and Rich Hill: Hi Dave, thanks for chatting with us all. Are you guys working to quantify framing runs into your WAR? Do you think first baseman scoops will ever get an advanced value placed on them?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, and we’ll likely have an announcement on framing-related stuff in the not too distant future. Scoops are already included in UZR and DRS.

soaktherich: Are there any studies that show that NL pitchers have higher injury rates due to hitting and base running? If not, get rid of the stupid DH. (And I’m a Red Sox fan, not a NL fan.)

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m really annoyed we got to watch David Ortiz play for the last 10 years. That was terrible.

CT: Would Moncada, ERod, Devers plus low level prospects be close for Sale?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what low level prospects mean, but that probably gets the conversation going, at the minimum.

Dave Cameron: But yeah, that’s the kind of package it would take, probably.

Ed in Iowa: Eno posted an article awhile back about ‘what hitters see’. Being a human physiologist with a sabbatical approaching, I was intrigued. I have since dipped my toes into the extensive literature on the subject and decided that I would use most of my upcoming sabbatical to develop research expertise in visual-spatial learning. I plan to develop projects looking at: how we develop the ability to detect velocity, how or if we can develop the ability to detect spin, to what extent are the red stitches on the ball important, etc. This is just FYI, Fangraphs has influences you might not always be immediately obvious to you.

Dave Cameron: Well that sounds pretty neat. You might want to reach out to the guys at deCervo and see what they’ve already done on this field.

soaktherich: Justin Verlander for Jackie Bradley Jr.: Good starting point? Or does Detroit balk at getting only one guy back for their cornerstone?

Dave Cameron: Good one.

Dave Cameron: (Verlander has a little trade value, but at 3/$85M or whatever he has left, teams aren’t giving up high quality young MLB guys)

Erik: Which would the Phillies have preferred: the return they could have got for Hellickson at the 2016 deadline, the draft pick they would have received had he turned down the QO, or Hellickson at $17.2 million for 2017?

Dave Cameron: Probably the draft pick.

Dave Cameron: But Hellickson at 1/$17M isn’t the end of the world, and realistically, they can still trade him if they want to. There were almost certainly teams that would have signed him this winter without having to give up the pack, and would happily take him, especially if the Phillies pay down the salary a bit.

Dave Cameron: So you eat $4M or $5M and get a prospect; not that different from drafting a guy you have to give a $4m or $5M signing bonus to.

James: Any guesses on what the Jays do in LF/RF?

Dave Cameron: Josh Reddick.

Q-Ball: If Jon Lester were a free agent right now, do you think he would get more than the 4/105 left on his contract? In other words, is there surplus value there?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, easily.

Dave Cameron: He’d get 5 years minimum, probably 6.

Zonk: Dave, why no “Anti-Trade Value” article this year? Always enjoyed that one.

Dave Cameron: It’s coming! Decided to roll it into the offseason trade value update.

Dave Cameron: Which I’m hoping to roll out next week…

Q-Ball: “Spin Rate” seems to be the latest thing. Is there a resource for fans to look up Spin Rate on a player? Is there something a player can to to increase their spin rate, or is it just a natural talent?

Dave Cameron: You can get spin rate on Baseball Savant under the Statcast search. From what we can tell at the moment, spin rate is innate, and can’t really be “taught”

Andrew: Obviously it ultimately comes down to final price and their other alternatives, but in a vacuum, are you okay with the Giants putting up the 5/85M plus the draft pick to sign a Kenley Jansen given they are theoretically in a “window”? Or would you advise spending some of that money trying to shore up left field and perhaps go without a cheaper back-end bullpen option?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t hate Jansen at 5/$85M. It’s not a bargain, but he’s really good.

Nick: Seems like BABIP and LOB% are the main sources of variation between FIP and ERA (correct me if I’m wrong). Do we know which factor pitchers have more control over?

Dave Cameron: That’s correct. And there’s a little more variation in pitcher LOB% than pitcher BABIP, because better pitchers are more likely to get hitters out in all situations, including when runners are on base. So a 78% LOB% for a great starter isn’t that unusual, for instance.

J.J.: What tool do you believe is the best to evaluate a minor league prospect by? In other words, a skill that a prospect cannot develop easily.

Dave Cameron: Contact rate.

Dave Cameron: You absolutely shouldn’t evaluate anyone by just contact rate, but that’s the building block.

Dave Cameron: For both hitters and pitchers. If you can make contact, the power can come later. If you can miss bats, the command can come later.

Kris: Should the Braves be going after Sale, Gray, Archer etc.? Those are gut the farm system type trade targets…why would they do that given their current spot on the rebuild curve?

Dave Cameron: They clearly want to move up their timetable to win, but also, I wouldn’t take these rumors too seriously. It costs them nothing to make a phone call and find out what the asking price is. I don’t think we’ll actually see them make that kind of win-now trade this winter.

Runs Allowed Dickey: What is the highest theoretical WAR? What about realistically? Describe a 20-WAR season

Dave Cameron: It would have to be a two way player, realistically. If Shohei Otani was Bryce Harper at the plate and Clayton Kershaw on the mound, so he got 600 plate appearances and threw 200 innings, maybe he could get there.

DennetOTM: You listed Mark Melancon in your 2017 Free Agent Landmines, but not Aroldis Chapman. They have different skills of course, and you were worried that Melancon’s pinpoint command may not age well. But is there any reason to think Chapman’s superhuman velocity will age well? Given the size and length of his contract I would think he’d also be a free agent landmind.

Dave Cameron: So I think we don’t really know what Chapman would be throwing 98, and that uncertainty is risky, but then again, most lefties who throw 98 are still pretty good.

Dave Cameron: So I think Chapman can lose a few ticks and probably still be okay.

Dave Cameron: If Melancon loses a few ticks, he’s Jonathan Papelbon.

Another Bill: You think a Sale or Archer trade package has to include major leaguers?

Dave Cameron: Doesn’t have to be an established guy, but I think Chicago will want someone who can play on their team in 2017.

Dave Cameron: Moncada could fit that bill, for instance, even if he’s not really a big leaguer yet.

CamdenWarehouse: The “sluggiest sluggers who ever slugged ” can in fact keep up Trumbo’s HR/XBH hit ratio. McGwire’s was 69% over the course of his career.

Dave Cameron: Okay, if Trumbo can transport himself to the mid-1990s and load up his body with Andro, then he can sustain this.

Elton: Hello Dave. Have any wild-ass guesses for big hot stove deals? I tried to think of one off the top of my head and Greinke+some money to the Red Sox for prospects suddenly makes a ton of sense to me.

Dave Cameron: Don’t think Greinke is a Dombrowski kind of pitcher.

Dave Cameron: In terms of guesses at a blockbuster beyond the Sale/Archer rumors, McCutchen to Cleveland could be fun. Gives them a star-level CF to try and take advantage of window.

PHW: what are your thoughts on the rumours of the nationals potentially going after miggy or sale

Dave Cameron: I think everyone checks in on every player available at some point.

Dave Cameron: I doubt the Nationals are going to be serious players for either.

Elton: Are there any mortgage-the-future moves the Angels can make (sensible or not) to try and win while they still have Trout?

Dave Cameron: The Angels are already on their second mortgage, they’ve maxed out their HELOC, and now they’re living on high-interest credit cards.

Guest: Do you give any credence to the idea that Morales’ terrible base running will impact the Jays less than the Royals because of the difference in the two teams’ offenses (extra base hits vs. singles)?

Dave Cameron: Nope,.

Jaff: Does Vogt seem like a good fit for the rockies? Can’t he play a little bit of first as well as catch? Seems like a better idea than Trumbo or Weiters.

Dave Cameron: Think they’re probably going to give Tom Murphy a run as their catcher next year.

Andrew: If you were Sandy Alderson, would you be happy that Walker accepted the QO?

Dave Cameron: Definitely.

Okra: I’d really love to support the site and get a membership but am holding out for an ad-free membership option. I can’t help but feel a little ripped off if I’m paying to support the site but still seeing ads like everyone else who doesn’t pay to support the site. Pick a number … $40, $50, $60/yr …. I’ll gladly pay it for an ad-free experience. Thanks

Dave Cameron: I’m sorry you feel that $20 a year for what we provide is a rip-off. We’re exploring what an ad-free membership would look like, but it might not be feasible, realistically.

Andrew: Are the “standard aging curves” that FG uses to project players based on data re how players historically have aged? Or something else?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they’re based on historical aging curve data.

Sean: If the Rangers are able to trade for a top-of-the-rotation type starter and are able to re-sign one of Carlos Gomez or Ian Desmond, where do you see them finishing in 2017?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what they have to give up to get that SP. If you’re subtracting Mazara and Gallo, then you’re probably only netting a few extra wins.

Dave Cameron: And they’re a .500ish team right now.

Rick Hahn: You’re me. Which path do you choose—rebuild by selling everyone or make an attempt for another push?

Dave Cameron: Blow it up.

Dave: I posed this question last year, but after the season both players had, I think it’s worth asking again: Taijuan Walker for Jorge Soler, who says no?

Dave Cameron: Seattle.

Daniel: Where do you think Trumbo lands?

Dave Cameron: Colorado.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Blue Eyes: What are your thoughts on Eno’s vote for Farrell for MOY?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think we really have much of an idea about who is a good and bad manager, since so much of their job happens in private.

Ricky: Why do you think a team will give Chapman 6 years? That is a heck of a long commitment.

Dave Cameron: Because money is worth more to teams now than it is in the future, so by inflating contracts by going longer-term, they’re essentially giving themselves an interest-free loan.

Druidiful: How likely do you think it is that Trout will get traded this offseason? And if he does, where do you think he will end up?

Dave Cameron: 0%

Elton: I am questioning the Cubs’ decision to carry both Rondon and Strop on the WS roster when they trusted them so little that they barely pitched, and not at all in an extra-inning Game 7. What do you think?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Maddon would have trusted Rob Zastryzny any more.

Rob: Everybody is talking like Theo Epstein has punched his ticket to Cooperstown as the most accomplished baseball executive in history (aside from Branch Rickey, obviously). Where does Jed Hoyer fit in? What does he need to do to get a HOF plaque?

Dave Cameron: Fair or not, people only give credit for front office success to the top guy.

Griffin : What about David Peralta as an under-the-radar trade for the Jays?

Dave Cameron: I don’t know why AZ would sell low on him.

Jon: Could the Dodgers get Archer or Sale with a package that doesn’t include Urias or Seager?

Dave Cameron: Maybe. They have enough prospect depth to build something around a guy like De Leon.

Buggy-Whip: Can you expand on the Eric Davis answer?

Dave Cameron: Davis almost went 40/50 in 1987. It would have been amazing to see what his career would have looked like if he had stayed healthy.

White Sox Fan: I think the White Sox are close to being a contending team and while I think that they should ‘rebuild/retool’ their ML roster by trading guys like Jones, Robertson, Fraizer, Melky (and maybe Quintana to acquire young bats a la Benintendi). I think a core of Sale, Eaton, Anderson, Rodon, Abreu and Collins sounds pretty good and could compete in a year or two with the AL Central looking to up for grabs around that time. Am I wrong for thinking that?

Dave Cameron: They’ve had that core for several years and haven’t gotten close. You’re overrating the impact of a few players and underrating the impact of the many role players needed to win.

Prich: Pirates might make Tony Watson available… With his climb in salary ($5.5+), what can they expect for him? Two interesting but flawed prospects, or better?

Dave Cameron: The HR spike last year is a bit problematic, given that he’s not a high-K guy.

Dave Cameron: He’s only an elite reliever if he’s avoiding HRs.

Elton: If the Cubs might trade for a veteran CF (and assuming you-know-who is off the table) who do you like? Suddenly started dreaming about a Pollock-and-Greinke to the Cubs blockbuster. Assuming Pollock is healthy he’ll bring a lot of surplus value but a Schwarber-Pollock-Heyward outfield would be blocking Soler and Eloy Jimenez anyway. (The Cubs would need to add more, I know …)

Dave Cameron: That’s not happening.

Dave Cameron: Still think there’s some logic in the Cubs taking part of Jacoby Ellsbury’s deal.

Eric: Which struggling young OF do you prefer next year and going forward? Soler or Conforto?

Dave Cameron: Conforto.

Zonk: I foresee the Cubs regressing in run prevention. I also think they could score more runs than last year with a healthy Schwarber and full season of Contreras. Do you agree, or is that just wishful thinking?

Dave Cameron: Offense probably depends a lot on Heyward. If he bounces back, yeah, they could score more, though the drop in run prevention will still be bigger than the bounce in runs scored.

STiVo: For an AL team that could use a DH and some outfield depth, what is a fair price for Trumbo given his talent and expected future performance?

Dave Cameron: 4/$40M?

Dave Cameron: Even that might be generous.

Jim Lonborg: I believe you that that RS package would be what the WS would expect, but surely it wouldn’t actually be a good deal from the Red Sox’s perspective, would it? Rodriguez could be quite good, even if not Sale level, and Moncada’s a potential star.

Dave Cameron: Difference between Rodriguez and Sale is ~3 wins for 2017. You don’t just get to add 3 wins for nothing.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think I’d make that trade if I was BOS, but I don’t think it’s a crazy ask from CHW.

Jeff: Was there ever a point, to your knowledge, that Trout was ever close to bring traded? I mean when he was still in the minors

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Erik: One thing I don’t understand about how we analyze trade value: don’t we focus too much on surplus value and not enough on gross value? For example, wouldn’t you rather have a guy who costs $100 million but is worth $90 million than a guy who costs half a million but is worth two millions? Gut says yes, but surplus value says no.

Dave Cameron: Not if you can spend the $89.5 million you saved on a guy worth $90 million.

Dave Cameron: Overpaying for a good player is fine if the alternative is the owner pockets the money. But assuming a team can spend the money either way, better to spend it efficiently

Jesse: What one or two teams do you see being the most aggressive and serious in pursuing Sale?

Dave Cameron: I could see the Yankees being the “surprise” team on Sale, given that they aren’t being talked about that much as a suitor. But you put him in that rotation, and then they spend a little money this winter, and they’re ready to win.

DN: Didn’t know you were doing an offseason update to the trade value list. Will that come out all at once or spaced out like the midseason list? Also, that news makes me pretty excited.

Dave Cameron: The offseason update is a slimmed down single post; much less thorough. More of just a “yeah, Gary Sanchez raised his value a lot!” kind of recognition.

Bend It Like Cameron: It’s getting cold and bleh on the east coast. How’s the weather in Bend these days?

Dave Cameron: It snowed a little bit last night, and the low tonight is 27.

John Stamos: Are those the 2017 Steamer Projections listed on the player pages now?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Okra: What is your dream job? Owner of MLB team? President of USA?

Dave Cameron: Guy who runs a dog rescue and gets to play with them all day.

JT: Ian Kinsler to the Dodgers go down as “most logical trade that doesn’t happen?”

Dave Cameron: I think the Dodgers prefer to trade for young guys.

Jon: Could you clarify – how does a pitcher miss bats, but lack command? Is that an indicator of just deceptive stuff, even if it’s not controlled well?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Clayton Kerhsaw, for instance, ran high-ish walk rates in the minors while he was figuring out how to pitch.

Dave Cameron: Once he figured out how to pound the zone, he took over the world.

TJ: Puig, Pederson, De Leon and Verdugo for Chris Sale?

Dave Cameron: CHW does that. LA does not.

JC: “If you can miss bats, the command can come later.” That seems like a very pro Sean Newcomb line if I’ve ever heard one.

Dave Cameron: Can doesn’t mean will, but yeah, it’s why teams keep betting on guys like Newcomb.

Zonk: Your comments on Mark Trumbo make Khris Davis look pretty good. Is he that good? Or is he just Trumbo 2.0?

Dave Cameron: He, Yasmany Tomas, and Trumbo are all the same player.

Guest: If you’re the Astros, do you dangle Alex Bregman in a deal for Sale or Archer? I love the guy, but it seems like it’d be real easy to just slide Gurriel over to 3B

Dave Cameron: No, I’d hang on to Bregman.

Colin: Hey Dave, I hope this isn’t a silly question, but can you explain to me how it’s possible for high strikeout totals to be the leading indicator of success for pitchers, but not the leading indicator of failure for hitters?

Dave Cameron: For a hitter, strikeout rate is positively correlated with power; guys who swing and miss a lot also tend to hit home runs, which is good, and counteracts the strikeouts. But that is not true for pitchers; guys who strike out a lot of hitters DO NOT give up more home runs or extra base hits, so there’s no offset to the advantage of reducing contact.

Outside Animals: On spin rate, do you think there is any correlation between the length of a pitcher’s fingers and spin rate? Seems like you could get more leverage if you can wrap more of your hand around a baseball.

Dave Cameron: That’s one of the theories.

Dave Cameron: I don’t know that anyone has conclusively proven where spin rate comes from though.

Melton Sporer: When you and Jeff hang out, are you the grumpy one and he the mild one in the conversation, or are those just your Fangraphs personas? Not judging, I’m grumpy myself.

Dave Cameron: I’m actually pretty not-grumpy.

Matt: Am I crazy for wanting my team (full disclosure: it’s the Braves) to go after Quintana and not Sale? Quintana has posted slightly better numbers in back-to-back seasons, is signed longer and cheaper, and isn’t…um…crazy.

Dave Cameron: You’re not crazy. I think Quintana’s market is probably more reasonable than Sale’s.

MeDeKe: Re: ad-free experience…install an ad blocker (I use ABP – works well!)

Dave Cameron: Ad-blockers are effectively theft. The internet is providing you with content it does not charge you for in exchange for your willingness to see advertisements that offset the costs of bringing you that content. When you choose to consume that content but reject the advertisements, you’re breaking the deal.

Dave Cameron: If you’re fine with that arrangement, so be it, but it’s not all that different from just walking into a grocery store and stealing a candy bar.

Dave ptitegrainecameron: Would you rather have Mike Trout at 15 Years 450 Million, or at 2 years 10 Million?

Dave Cameron: The question can be rephrased as would you give Mike Trout a 13/$440M extension beginning in 2019. And yeah, I think you have to do that.

mtsw: Is the league’s current shortage of decent starting pitchers in any way connected to the current generation of players being the one where half the pitchers blew their elbows out before they turned 22?

Dave Cameron: Since when do we have a shortage of decent pitchers?

Dave Cameron: There are like 20 guys who are routinely called an ace.

Dave Cameron: My NL Cy Young ballot was impossible to fill out because of having too many good options.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that will do it for today.

Dave Cameron: Going to go write my “Why I voted for ____ for NL Cy Young piece”

Dave Cameron: Prepare to yell at me in ~5 hours.

Dave Cameron: We’ll do it again next week, when I’m breaking down a turkey in between answering questions.