Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/2/16

Dave Cameron: Happy Game 7 Day, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Obviously, most of today’s questions will be about the game tonight. We’ll do some offseason stuff too if you want, but tonight should be fun, so let’s focus mostly on that.

Jordan: What happens to Kluber’s numbers on multiples of short rest?

Dave Cameron: No one really knows for sure. What we can infer from regular bullpen usage is that days of rest impact endurance the most, not necessarily short-term performance. So I think Cleveland can be comfortable getting 3-4 innings from Kluber, essentially treating him as a Miller-esque reliever. Beyond that, I wouldn’t push it.

Matt: Who wins tonight?

Dave Cameron: Gut says Cleveland. Kluber/Miller/Allen can handle the whole game. They have home field. The Cubs are going to have some easy outs in their line-up, especially with Ross catching most of the game. And their pitching just isn’t set up as well.

Dave Cameron: The Cubs definitely can win, but I’d lean towards Cleveland.

NashCubsFan: Long time listener, first time caller. Which aspect of tonight’s game is most critical to you? Effectiveness of Hendricks, length of Kluber, or wokeness of Cubs’ bats? Thanks for taking my call.

Dave Cameron: Cubs need Hendricks to give them at least 4 shutdown innings, I think. Realistically, they can’t feel good if they’re down by more than a run heading into the top of the 5th, because Miller is coming in at that point if they get anything going.

Bork: Hey Dave, two questions: First, who’s taking over the Tuesday chats? Second, can I still call them August?

Dave Cameron: Eric is going to take August’s spot in that chat rotation.

Nicholas: So as of today, FG playoff odds favor the Cubs 56-44, while FiveThirtyEight favors the Indians by an almost identical margin. Any idea what accounts for the difference?

Dave Cameron: Our game odds have it at 55-45 Cleveland.

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/livescoreboard.aspx?date=2016-11-02

Dave Cameron: Don’t look at the odds on the standings page at this point; those use the depth charts and proportion playing time accordingly.

Dave Cameron: For one game, which is all we have left, use the game odds.

CoreyII: Where would you bat Schwarber today if you were managing the Cubs?

Dave Cameron: Probably 5th. I liked the Fowler-Bryant-Rizzo-Zobrist top of the order.

Nathan: Think there’s chance Maddon uses any relief pitchers not named Aroldis Chapman today, not counting starting pitchers who come in relief?

Dave Cameron: I think he’ll have to if he wants to take Hendricks out mid-inning. Odds are not good you’d bring in Lester with a man on base, so unless Hendricks exits at the end of an inning, he’ll need to get one or two outs from someone. Guess would be Edwards.

Paul: Can you clarify a point you made in your article this morning on Chapman? “Now, though, at least one of those two [Lester and Lackey] is probably hanging back in reserve.” Why? How does Chapman’s usage yesterday limit the amount of innings Lester and Lackey would see? I almost justify using Chapman yesterday because you have Lester and Lackey available, both of whom could go 2+ innings if needed.

Dave Cameron: Do you remember Kenley Jansen running out of gas in the 9th inning in the NLDS? The Cubs have to assume that could happen to Chapman tonight. If they bring him in in the 7th, which is probably what they want to do, and Cleveland gets some baserunners against him in the 7th/8th, you can’t not have someone to replace him for the 9th if he’s clearly done after 30-40 pitches.

Dave Cameron: And given how Maddon clearly doesn’t trust any of his other relievers, that now probably has to be Lackey.

Paul: Would you expect to see Arrieta available tonight and used in any capacity? He said in post-game he would pitch if needed.

Dave Cameron: Extra innings only, probably .

Lure of the Animal: Who has the advantage if the game goes extra innings?

Dave Cameron: Probably Chicago, because at that point, Miller/Allen are probably out of the game.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Indians pitching usage: Kluber for 6, Miller for 2, and Allen for the 9th, or the field?

Dave Cameron: Kluber for 4, Miller for 3, Allen for 2.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Blue Eyes: If Cleveland wins, is there any scenario in which Kluber doesn’t get MVP?

Dave Cameron: Maybe if he struggles tonight, Miller slams the door and pitches 3-4 innings.

Otis Redding: If you’re Joe Maddon, are you pitching Lester 100% tonight?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Daniel: Your best recollection: What is the most commented-upon piece of Fangraphs history?

Dave Cameron: The one where I announced I had leukemia got like 600 comments, I think.

CoreyII: If Lester is definitely pitching today, should the Cubs consider starting him to force the Indians to give up their platoon advantages early on if the Cubs switch to a RHP in Hendricks after Lester goes through the order once?

Dave Cameron: It’s definitely worth considering.

Nick: If Kluber is at ~80 pitches, has allowed no runs, and is in control through 5, do you still go straight to Miller/Allen? What about through 6?

Dave Cameron: No question.

Guest: Hendricks/Lester/Lackey/Chapman tonight and try to negate any platoon advantages by going L/R/L/R?

Dave Cameron: I would guess it’s Hendricks-Lester-Chapman, with Lackey as the backup plan if Chapman can’t finish or if it goes extras.

Dave Cameron: With the caveat that they might need someone in between Hendricks and Lester if Hendricks can’t finish an inning.

Well-Beered Englishman: What’s the most You Can’t Predict Baseball ending to G7? Ross homer off Miller?

Dave Cameron: Javier Baez bases loaded walk off walk.

Daniel: If you had to choose one player from this series moving forward, is it Bryant or Lindor?

Dave Cameron: Bryant

hammy: You said “with ross catching most of the game”, was this announced already that he’d be starting tonight?

Dave Cameron: He’s coming in when Lester comes in, and then he’s staying in.

Outta my way, Gyorkass: Wait…what’s going on with August’s Tuesday’s chats?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/logging-off/

Daniel: Is there a live game blog tonight?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Zonk: Why do you think Lackey would be a better option than Grimm? Lackey was pretty clearly the Cubs 4th best starter, do you think he could be good in short bursts?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/joe-maddons-other-relief-option-tonight/

Daniel: What’s the earlier we see Miller?

Dave Cameron: The 3rd.

Mike: Is Trevor Bauer Cleveland’s extra innings guy?

Dave Cameron: No, it’s probably Shaw and then the McAllister/Otero guys.

Zonk: If the Cubs win, I still don’t see who would be the favorite for MVP at this point. What do you think?

Dave Cameron: Probably tonight’s hero. Or Bryant.

Guest: Say Kluber is extremely efficient and looks in top form. How many innings do you let him go maximally, despite how good he looks?

Dave Cameron: 4.

Lure of the Animal: Barring extra innings/injury, due you foresee any situation where Rondon/Strop pitch tonight?

Dave Cameron: No,

I am the walrus: How does a quirky guy like Lester do coming out of the pen instead of going thru his starter day routine?

Dave Cameron: No reason he can’t go through his routine still.

Dave Cameron: He knows he’s pitching today, after all.

CamdenWarehouse: Baez can’t have a walk off walk…

Dave Cameron: Makes it even more improbable!

Noah: Any chance cubs send Contreras to the outfield when Ross comes in?

Dave Cameron: Unlikely. Heyward’s defense is super valuable.

Mike M: Hendricks 4 Lester 3 Chapman 2?

Dave Cameron: Would think maybe Maddon prefers 5/2/2.

Dave Cameron: But something like that.

Dave Cameron: 5/3/1 would actually be ideal.

Lure of the Animal: If Miller were to enter the game as early as the 3rd, could you see Tito keeping him in there through the 7th?

Dave Cameron: Depending on pitch count, maybe. I think Miller probably maxes out at 60ish pitches tonight.

Jack C.: Wouldn’t you at least try to get 5 out of Kluber? If he is on – hypothetically the hitters he would see in the 5th would be some sort of Ross, Heyward, Baez, etc. He could get thru that group and that would allow for you to bring in Miller against the top of the order in the 6th.

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Dave Cameron: The idea of a pitcher being “on” is mostly fallacy. Remember how Trevor Bauer was dominant until he gave up 3 runs in a hurry?

Dave Cameron: Having Andrew Miller watch Corey Kluber give up runs in the 5th inning would be brutal.

weezy: why not start Miller and work backward in effectiveness of pitchers?

Dave Cameron: If you’re throwing Kluber tonight anyway, might as well let him start in his usual routine.

Anthony: You’ve been talking about Kluber in terms of innings, but it seems like Francona’s been approaching things more in terms of times through order. If Kluber is cruising it’s hard to imagine Francona taking him out before getting through the order twice, even if that means going into the 5th or 6th.

Dave Cameron: You don’t risk a tiring double-short-rest starter giving up a bunch of runs in a hurry when you have Miller and Allen down there.

Dave Cameron: Miller can give you 3, Allen can give you 2. So you only need 4 from Kluber. No point giving a tiring Kluber one of the innings that Miller/Allen would otherwise pitch. That’s a downgrade.

Jack C.: Good point. And I understand where you are coming from. But how can you expect a 5th inning of Kluber to be worse than the 1st inning Miller pitches? Isn’t it pretty similar? A true coin flip? Miller COULD come out and give up a HR to Baez while Kluber COULD strike Baez out instead. I just don’t see a 70-80 pitch Kluber being massively ineffective in the 5th inning against the bottom of the order. But what do I know? I love the fact that we are having this conversation in the first place. Thank you to all of the progressive thinkers + Maddon and Francona.

Dave Cameron: Batters put up a .275 wOBA against Kluber this year. They put up a .210 wOBA against Miller. Even taking the rest/fatigue factor out, Miller is just way better.

I am the walrus: Are you surprised Schwarber’s hasn’t been pinch run for at all this series? 2-2 game in the 6th and him on 2nd, 1 out, you pinch running?

Dave Cameron: No. The value of getting a slightly faster guy on the bases is small in a situation where it’s not a close game.

Mike D: If Kluber has been perfect through 4 with 12 strikeouts, you still take him out?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Dave Cameron: Miller > Kluber. I want Miller on the mound as quickly as possible while still giving me a shot to have him and Allen finish the game.

Brandon: What do you do if Kluber is ineffective from the very beginning?

Dave Cameron: Then you’re probably screwed.

Ricky: Would using Kluber an extra inning reduce the risk that Miller get hit on in his 3rd inning?

Dave Cameron: You have Allen warming up for Miller’s third inning. If Miller is running out of gas, Allen comes in.

Dave Cameron: If Allen runs out of gas at the end, you have Shaw.

Dock Ellis: If Miller pitches 60+ pitches that means he probably went through the order twice. Won’t that favor the Cubs since they’ll have a real good look at him plus he’s only a two pitch pitcher?

Dave Cameron: He probably only goes 60+ if he’s pitching well. Would guess his practical limit is something like 12 batters.

CamdenWarehouse: “Miller can give you 3, Allen can give you 2. So you only need 4 from Kluber.” Isn’t it risky to build a strategy around getting 5 scoreless innings from two relievers?

Dave Cameron: It’s riskier to build a strategy around a double-short-rest starter keeping a great offense off the board the second time through the order.

Greg Bird: What about pinch-running for Schwarber due to the injury risk in a game that’s not close? That’s not negligible.

Dave Cameron: It’s hard to get injured jogging from base to base.

Dave Cameron: It’s not like Schwarber is sprinting all out.

John: Switching gear to Cubs… what if Hendricks is in some trouble in the 2-3rd? Go to Lester and try to stretch him, or go with Lackey and try to get 3 out of him?

Dave Cameron: You don’t want to bring in Lester with men on. The big question for Maddon tonight is which reliever he trusts to bail Hendricks out if need be.

Dave Cameron: Strop and Rondon are obviously out. Could be Montgomery. Could be Edwards.

HugoZ: If you’re an mlb manager, there’s no way you could pull Kluber after four innings of total dominance because of the blowback that would come if your reliever craps out.

Dave Cameron: Players understand Game 7 is a different beast.

Dave Cameron: And no one is going to be like “you put in Andrew Miller, you fool!”

Ed: Is game seven fun just because the pitching alternatives are so different from any other game you would ever see?

Dave Cameron: Game 7 is fun because every at-bat matters.

Dave Cameron: There’s no such thing as low leverage anymore.

Garold: Francona has typically bringing in Miller after someone reaches base. For example, if Kluber gets to the 5th, pitch him until someone reaches. If he’s really effective to that point, I would put money on Francona repeating that strategy.

Dave Cameron: Depends on the score. Up 4-0 or something, you can afford to let him put a guy on. In a one run game, or a tie game? No.

Eric: With all of this talk of Kluber-Miller-Allen, and Hendricks-Lester-Chapman, how many runs is it going to take to win this game?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess the final is 4-2 or something like that.

Robin: If Ross comes in when Lester does, do you think he comes out too once there is a pitching change?

Dave Cameron: No.

Mike: If one team is up fairly big (6 runs or so), do you think the starter sticks around a little longer or do you still follow the plan of either Miller/Allen or Lester/Chapman?

Dave Cameron: A big early lead, you probably push your starter to go 5. But with Miller/Allen and Lester/Chapman as the middle/end plans, no reason for either starter to see the 6th regardless of score.

Slider: Shouldn’t you be comparing Kluber’s numbers to Allen’s? I’d much rather see 5 from Kluber/Miller/Allen go 5/3/1. I think you’re underestimating Kluber’s workhorse arm and low number of pitches thrown this series.

Dave Cameron: Kluber: .275 wOBA allowed. Allen: .255 wOBA allowed. Allen > Kluber too.

Dave Cameron: I know people love Corey Kluber, but he’s the worst pitcher Cleveland will have on the mound tonight.

Dooduh: Was Wood left off of the Cubs WS roster?

Dave Cameron: He pitched last night.

Jim Lonborg: Looking back, will we say that the Rondon and Strop injuries had more impact than the Carrasco and Salazar injuries?

Dave Cameron: No, because Rondon/Strop innings were taken by Chapman. Carrasco/Salazar innings were taken by Tomlin/Bauer on short-rest.

Luke: I understand the game was different then, but do you think we will ever see a see a ’91 game seven type performance again?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Guest: Why not have Lester before Hendricks so Ross isn’t playing late in the game?

Dave Cameron: They prefer Ross’ glove, and I think there’s a sentimental aspect to the story of Ross getting to be the one who catches the last pitch of the WS if they win it. They want to give Ross that moment if they can.

Hank: As a Cubs fan, I’d rather have Mike Montgomery on the mound than John f@#king Lackey!!

Dave Cameron: Then you’re underrating John Lackey.

Tony: If you are Francona, you are telling Kluber to prepare for a 4-5 inning start and to not hold anything back in those 4 innings right? Miller Shaw and Allen should all be ready to go multiple innings if needed.

Dave Cameron: Yep. Balls to the wall for ~60-70 pitches.

Lure of the Animal: What is this universal obsession with David Ross? He’s been a mediocre player for many years, and now everyone in the media is worshiping at his altar.

Dave Cameron: People who know him seemingly love him.

Luke: who are the easy outs you said in Cubs lineup?

Dave Cameron: Ross, Baez, Heyward against a lefty.

John: Are you sure that Miller’s third inning is a better proposition than Kluber’s 5th inning?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Dooduh: In addition to Shaw, Miller & Allen, Salazar would have to also be available tonite.

Dave Cameron: Probably only if it gets to extras.

Dave Cameron: I’ll be shocked if CLE throws anyone that isn’t Kluber/Miller/Allen in the first nine innings, barring injury or total meltdown.

Clucker: O/U on the number of bunts we see tonight. 0.5 bunts

Dave Cameron: I’d bet we see a few. Especially against the RPs, I’d love to see a squeeze if there’s a runner on third.

Dave Cameron: Miller/Allen/Chapman are all such high K guys that going for a sac fly isn’t worth it.

Tony: If you had to put betting odds on Hendricks or Kluber pitching a complete game tonight, what would you set it at?

Dave Cameron: 20 billion to 1

James: Kind of an inane question, but who should be more disappointed by a loss tonight? Cleveland, after blowing a 3-1 lead? Or the Cubs, after their damn impressive regular season?

Dave Cameron: Both will be super disappointed. Cleveland maybe a bit more so, since they don’t have this insane young core to look at and say “we’ll probably be back.”

D: How much of Francona’s genius this postseason is that Miller has been perfect? (I’d say, a lot.)

Dave Cameron: It definitely helps.

Shaemus: Baez, Heyward, and Ross aren’t actually bad hitters. Sure they’re mediocre, but it’s not like they’re Jesus Sucre.

Dave Cameron: Ross is a terrible hitter. Baez is easily exploited. Heyward against a lefty is bad.

Sean: So if Kluber is PERFECT through 4 in a 0-0 game, you are still taking him out? I know the numbers, but is there an alternate line somewhere?

Dave Cameron: If it’s 0-0, yeah, I’m still taking him out.

Dave Cameron: If CLE is up by a few, I’d probably let him go until he put a man on.

Dooduh: Do you think Salazar is not at full strength? If he is fresh I’d want to have him ready for the 5th &/or 6th.

Dave Cameron: He threw 28 pitches last night.

weezy: what is the most likely inning for a run to score tonight?

Dave Cameron: Probably the 3rd.

Zonk: It sounds like you think the Cubs are likely to have a long playoff run coming up, while the Indians might be more one and done. Is that right?

Dave Cameron: The Cubs future is just more secure, since they have low-risk superstars like Bryant and Rizzo, plus a whole bunch of good secondary pieces like Russell and Contreras. Lindor is awesome, but everything after him is a bit more shaky. You can’t count on Jose Ramirez having any more +5 WAR seasons. Kluber’s 30. Miller and Allen are great, but relievers have short shelf lives.

Michael Scarn: Will tonight’s game be the most watched game in MLB history?

Dave Cameron: I’m guessing some of the older games got bigger shares because there were only 3 channels, but tonight is going to set some records, for sure.

D: I think you’re wrong about Kluber being the worst pitcher for the Indians tonight. His wOBA against includes pitching 6-8 inning games. For a 5-inning appearance, it’s probably better (short rest is a factor too, I guess).

Dave Cameron: Kluber, 1st time through the order: .290 wOBA allowed.

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/statsplits.aspx?playerid=2429&position=P&season=0&split=10.1

Dave Cameron: Corey Kluber is really good. Andrew Miller and Cody Allen are better.

Dave Cameron: Alright, that will do it for me today. Thanks for hanging out. Come on back for the live blog tonight, and let’s watch history together.