Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 1/12/16

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s get this thing started.

Dave Cameron: I’m switching days with August this week because his internet got torched by AT&T.

Dave Cameron: But he’ll be back tomorrow, theoretically, for all those who demand more Fagerstrom.

Ryan: Wouldn’t it make sense for the Braves to bring back Justin Upton? Structure a deal with low salary for 2016, we supposed to ramp up spending next year, but the FA market is horrible. We need to strike now. Don’t let a 2nd round pick stand in the way…

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there’s probably a point at which his price comes down low enough that next year’s spenders try to get in and get a discount. But I don’t know that Upton’s both going to want to take a discount and sign with a team that is going to be terrible. If he’s going cheap, might as well go to a winner, or a ballpark that can pad his stats.

Joe G: Better course of action for ChiSox: Sign Upton/Cespedes or Parra + back end of rotation arm? Obviously have a need at SS too, but not sure where that fits in.

Dave Cameron: They don’t have enough money to fill all their holes. Probably easier to sign bats right now and then hope to get lucky on a lottery ticket pitcher.

Sean P: How deep should a team that wants to contend be when it comes to starting pitching? Looking at the Cubs and Dodgers specifically, they seem to really value having depth with their starting staff.

Dave Cameron: For teams with eyes on contending, it is often just as important to raise your floor as your ceiling, which is what these depth moves are designed to do. Giving 400 innings to replacement level scrubs can sink your season, so having 6-7 decent starters with prospects ready for the second half is a good way to avoid finding yourself in that scenario.

UKJaysFan: If the Jays go into this season with their current roster, do you think it’s a good bet they’ll make the playoffs again?

Dave Cameron: No team in the AL is a good bet to make the playoffs.

Bob: As a Jays fan, I have a tough time getting my head around the 2016 projected standings. That was no fluke in 2015 and the team could be better now. Where’s the love gone?

Dave Cameron: There’s no way this team is better than last year’s team.

Tom: What punishmen, if any, would you administer against the cardinals if you were Commissioner?

Dave Cameron: I find it hard it difficult to believe that Correa actually kept the information he accessed to himself — you’re not looking at another team’s trade notes on July 31st, but not saying anything to anyone about what you found — so I’d hit them pretty hard. Loss of multiple first round picks, a big fine, international signing restrictions.

Thatguy: Hey Dave, thanks for giving Farnsworth the reins for the prospect analysis on your site, he does excellent work! I was wondering if Dan will have a weekly prospects chat sometime down the road?

Dave Cameron: He will indeed, but for now, we want to make sure he has enough time to get all 30 team reports done in a timely fashion, so we’re trying to keep his plate semi-clear.

Chris: Ian Kennedy is probably going to regret turning down the QO, right?

Dave Cameron: No, he’ll get 3/33 or something from someone eventually.

Andrew: How big would the jackpot need to get before the expected value of a Powerball ticket was over $2? Are you playing?

Dave Cameron: I haven’t done the math, but I’m pretty sure that the EV is still negative at this point. I’m not playing, and I’d encourage anyone reading this chat to take whatever money you’re thinking about using to buy tickets and shove it in an index fund instead.

Gnaeus Pompeius Magnus: Who is the starting LF in Toronto this season? Is it a platoon of Saunders/Pompey? I just read where Saunders has recovered from his knee injury. He seemed poised on a breakout before the injury. Thoughts on LF in Tor?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Saunders/Pompey/Carrera.

Cody: is it possible to insert stats into a WAR calculator to see what theoretical WAR a player could have? like, if Bryce had hit 63 homers instead of 42, what that would have done to his WAR and other stats? does fangraphs or could fangraphs ever offer a fun thing like that?

Dave Cameron: We actually have something kind of like that being built out right now, so yes, you’ll have that kind of tool in the not too distant future.

Andrew: If the Royals completely blow away the projections again this year, would it merit looking closer at the projection system? How many years would you need before you deemed it wasn’t random variation?

Dave Cameron: It’s always worth looking at the underlying reasons for the differences. But the projections have actually been pretty close to correct for the Royals in terms of context-neutral performance, which is what the forecasts are trying to evaluate. The question of context-specific performance/sequencing isn’t really a projection issue.

Dave Cameron: If the Royals can sequence their runs in the most beneficial way possible for a third straight year, I guarantee you we won’t be the only ones trying to figure out whether their model is sustainable in other circumstances.

Jon D: If the White Sox sign an OF capable of playing either corner would you move Melky Cabrera to DH or Avisail Garcia to the bench?

Dave Cameron: Garcia isn’t a major league regular on a team trying to win.

BT-in-VT: Who do you like better 2016…Jose Fernandez or Matt Harvey?

Dave Cameron: Fernandez on a per start basis, Harvey on a quantity basis.

Shrug emoji: Hi Dave, I was hoping you could weigh in on Aaron Hicks. I’ve never heard such a wide range of opinions on a guy. He’s been touted as the next Carlos Gomez, but at the same time, the Yankees clearly view him as a 4th OF. Which side should I believe?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t say the Yankees clearly view him as a fourth OF; they’ve been trying to trade Gardner all winter with the idea that Hicks could replace him pretty easily.

MSW: Am I right to be annoyed with Alderson for complaining that Cespedes in CF is a square peg when he’s counting on an even worse defender in De Aza? Any other CF options that might fit, like Blackmon?

Dave Cameron: Juan Lagares is a perfectly capable major league starting center fielder. De Aza is a depth piece. Stop whining about center field, Mets fans.

MSW: Do you think the Mets have some kind of data supporting the notion that defense doesn’t matter? They’re going in to the season with a below average defender at every position except pitcher.

Dave Cameron: No, because defense absolutely does matter. It matters less when you strike out as many guys as their pitchers do, but they’re making a conscious decision to trade defense for offense.

Lawrence: Any chance Cespedes agrees to a one year deal with the Mets? Even if other teams offer 2 or 3 years, the Mets seem like the most appealing choice to get back to the WS from a free agent’s point of view. If they do…….would it make the Mets favorites in the East?

Dave Cameron: Cespedes will get 5-7 years.

Chris: How does de Aza get almost $6M guaranteed? Was any other team going to offer half that? Seems like a real fail by Mets to not recognize his price tag and the state of OF marketplace.

Dave Cameron: You have apparently not noticed the rising prices of depth lately. De Aza’s deal was fine.

@outfieldgrass24: I know you’ve gotten flack for “hating on the D-backs,” which I think is maybe unfair. But in yesterday’s piece, Steamer has them pegged for 79 wins. Given any projection system’s limitations and your corresponding corrections, what win level are you comfortable putting them at? Greater than 79, if only by a little?

Dave Cameron: I think they look like a .500 team.

Shrug emoji: As a Mets fan, is it unreasonable of me to be disappointed that the team seems content starting Lagares full-time in spite of his offensive shortcomings?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Gary: Why the hell are the Rockies looking at Gerardo Parra?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess they have a CarGo trade lined up.

JD: Can you talk about why we haven’t seen more front-loaded long term contracts? Especially with younger players, it would seem like front loading would benefit both the player and the club. Is is just because the Union values higher nominal values as opposed to say, higher present value contracts? If so, has anyone explained the time-value of money to them?

Dave Cameron: Front loaded contracts have no value to the team.

Aaron S: Any way you see the Cardinals adding an impact bat with Cespedes, Upton, and Davis still on the market? The outfield market in particular has seemed really soft.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d think STL should be in on Cespedes at this point.

Gary Gorr: What are your thoughts on the Drew Storen trade and do you think Sanchez moves to the rotation?

Dave Cameron: Storen trade seems smart for both sides. I still don’t buy Sanchez as a starter, and I don’t see any real reason to try it.

Dull Burham: You have alluded to the “bubble” economics of tv contracts. Given the fading nature of the cable tv industry, what kind of effect will this have on the MLB?

Dave Cameron: Eventually MLB will just sell the content to consumers directly. It might be another 10 or 20 years, but that’s where we’re headed. The league has done a very good job laying the groundwork to be able to replace their cable income with direct consumer sales income.

Gary Gorr: Why do you think the Jays in 2016 are not as good as the 2015 version?

Dave Cameron: You think Josh Donaldson is going to put up +9 WAR again? You think you’re getting +4 WAR from Kevin Pillar in 2016? You think Marco Estrada is going to run a 3.13 ERA again? Most of the roster should reasonably be expected to perform worse than they did a year ago.

Snarfle: At this point, do you think Upton takes something like 5/100 with an opt out after the first year? Or something like that? Okay deal as a full thing, but mostly a bet on himself for next year.

Dave Cameron: No one’s going to give him $100M guaranteed and a one year opt-out. The loss of the pick for signing him makes giving him a one year opt out (or a one year deal) hard unless he takes a very low 2016 salary.

Jack Wagon: What is the most frustrating part of your job?

Dave Cameron: Probably people questioning our integrity/motives for coming up with analysis that reaches conclusions they don’t like.

vivalajeter: Regarding powerball, I have to disagree with you. I’ll buy $10 in tickets. I’ll be in a great mood for the next 36 hours, dreaming of what I’ll spend the money on. That’s worth more than the cost of admission.

Dave Cameron: If you see it as an entertainment expense, like going to the movies, great.

Dave Cameron: If you see it as an investment, eh.

Guest: is your best friend someone from childhood youve stayed in touch with, or someone you met as an adult? do they like baseball?

Dave Cameron: Cheesy answer, but my best friends are my family members.

Guest: Would Jonathan Lucroy solve several of the Ranger’s lineup problems? And what would it take to get him at this point? Mil seems to be rather reasonable to work with from a prospect perspective (i.e. the Gomez and Gallardo deals).

Dave Cameron: I’ve heard the ask on Lucroy is insane.

Chuck: Who ends their career with the highest WAR: C. Seager, C. Correa or F. Lindor?

Dave Cameron: I’d go with Correa.

Jack Wagon: “Dave Cameron was just hired as the GM for the Tigers. His first move is_________”?

Dave Cameron: to hire a more qualified person to run the job while I take all the credit.

Kylo Ren: Can I get a definitive answer on FG+? I like giving you guys $$$ but it sounds like it won’t exist anymore? Anything replacing it?

Dave Cameron: There’s an announcement coming soon about that. There will be a way for you to give us money.

Ernie Camacho: When you add ZiPS to the depth charts, do you “re-center” it or Steamer so that the two are assuming the same run environment? At the end of the day, for your projected standings, do you essentially use pitching and batting projections + a run simulator to distribute a set number of runs?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s pretty much the gist of it.

Aaron T: Would a Jean Segura-Austin Hedges deal make sense? It would there be more pieces going one way?

Dave Cameron: Segura is mostly worthless, so MIL would have to give up a lot more than that.

Nick: Is Miguel Cabrera a future hall of famer? 60+ WAR and still going, but no 8+ win seasons.

Dave Cameron: He’s a lock to get in.

Nate: What do you think the Royals do with 2B and RF? Think they will make a move for someone similar to Blackmon in CO?

Dave Cameron: I could see them signing Parra. Their kind of player.

Raindog: Trading an out-of-options Dylan Bundy for Corey Dickerson is a) crazy for the O’s, b) crazy for the Rockies, or c) a fascinating gamble? Would the answer change if it was a different Rockies OF?

Dave Cameron: No idea why COL would do that.

Inigo: Inciarte’s value is probably at it’s highest right now, no? He’s probably reached his ceiling offensively, his entire value is based on his defense, and defense declines pretty fast. So Braves should trade him now?

Dave Cameron: In the sense that every young player is only going to lose value as they have fewer remaining years of control and get more expensive, yes, but he’s not a quickly depreciating asset who will be worthless in a few months.

Raindog: As an O’s fan should I be more scared of the O’s signing Gallardo for silly $$$, or going forward with Mike Wright / Tyler Wilson as our #5 starter?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see Baltimore as strong contenders so I’d rather bet on kids than throw money away.

PS: Mets fans/writers have mentioned trying to send Wheeler for Gardner and Miller. As a Yankees fan this is a clear no from me, but what would the add from the mets be to make that work? Or am I wrong and a fair swap? (let’s assume the wilpons are willing to add $24 mil in salary which, I mean, LOL)

Dave Cameron: That deal would be insane for the Yankees. Wheeler isn’t that valuable.

Dave Cameron: Maybe if they added Dilson Herrera and something.

The Gyorko Store Called: Will the new CBA get done before the end of the World Series? 2017 Spring Training?

Dave Cameron: The current CBA expires on December 1st, so it has to get done this year.

Compton: I’ve never played the lottery because I understand math, but just playing devil’s advocate here… Is an analysis of the lottery absolutely limited to EV? Couldn’t one argue that losing $5 or whatever a ticket costs wouldn’t affect your day-to-day life, whereas winning so many millions, even with such a miniscule chance, would change your life completely?

Dave Cameron: It’s an argument that can hold if you believe lottery ticket buyers are disciplined to ever only buy one or two tickets in their lifetime. In reality, it is a regular expense for a large portion of people who can’t afford it.

Anheiser: You’ve said you’re not a big drinker, but if you do ‘indulge’, would it be for a beer during a game, or a glass of wine with dinner, etc?

Dave Cameron: I just don’t drink at all, actually. A local craft beer place opened up a mile from my house and I gave it another shot, but I just don’t really like the taste of alcohol. I ordered the fruitiest, weakest ABV thing I could find and it still burned my throat.

The Gyorko Store Called: If the Royals finish 80-82, do projection systems win once and for all?

Dave Cameron: No single example will ever prove a system right or wrong.

Johnny5Alive: its so cheap to buy mlb content directly as well

Dave Cameron: Well it won’t be when it’s not being subsidized by existing cable contracts.

Dave Cameron: But MLBAM is setting themselves up to essentially build a sports network of sorts, so there’s a decent chance they’ll be able to keep the costs reasonable by attracting people who want a live sports bundle.

Johnny5Alive: if only they clear up the “market” issue

Dave Cameron: The market issue is a direct result of needing to protect their cable deals. Those go away, so do their market/blackout issues.

Justin: Which 2B has a better chance at putting up 4+ WAR in 2016, Kendrick or Utley? Both did it as recently as 2014.

Dave Cameron: Kendrick. Utley won’t play enough.

Cory S.: Would raising the cost of young player’s salary (their first few years in the majors, i.e. they make $2.5m instead of $500k) lower or raise the overall cost of FA stars? Is there any thing to gain by balancing the money a player earn early in their career with what they earn later in their careers?

Dave Cameron: It would lower the cost of FAs because teams would have to allocate more of their budget to pre-arb guys, and arbitration guys would be more expensive too, since it’s a raise-based system. But it would also be a regressive tax that would much more heavily harm lower-revenue clubs and provide a big advantage for big payroll teams.

Snarfle: If you were put in charge of a baseball team, is there something you would do that no one else is trying?

Dave Cameron: Probably not. The Dodgers are implementing a lot of ideas that I’ve advocated for previously, so I’m running out of new ways to spend other people’s money.

Hawk: you hit on the main regression candidates for the Jays, but doesn’t getting more out of Stroman/Tulo/Travis make up for a lot of that?

Dave Cameron: No.

majordanby: do you have a sense of the magnitude of differences in (1) the types of data available and (2) the types of models used to analyze baseball stats in the public vs the private (i.e. within teams) spheres?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think I do. The primary notable gaps in data aren’t related to on field, but off-field; health being the most notable. Minor league data is also a lot different with teams that have Trackmans installed in their MILB parks than it is in the public sphere.

Dave Cameron: But overall, I think the idea that the teams are doing things that so far and ahead of what the public is doing is mostly incorrect.

Dave Cameron: There’s absolutely a gap there. It’s just not as big as some people want you to think.

MSW: Isn’t the argument against guys like Lagares at CF for the Mets that at their place on the win curve, an improvement of 2-3 WAR would make a big difference? FG has them projected to lose the division to the Nationals by 5 games, they have 2 or 3 years max with their rotation, and the Braves and Phillies will be good again in 2-3 years. This is their window, and they seem content not to seize it.

Dave Cameron: Good luck replacing Lagares with a guy +2 to +3 WAR better than him. That’s Jason Heyward or something.

Mr. Mariner, Alvin Davis: Are you going to Cooperstown for Griffey’s induction?

Dave Cameron: Not planning it, no. I don’t have the sentimental attachment to Griffey than many others do. I’ll be front row when Adrian Beltre gets in, though.

JD: To follow up on front loaded contracts, if the out years are for less money, wouldn’t it make the contract more tradeable, more of an asset later as opposed to a liability. I think about the Votto deal, you pay for performance on the front end but could flip the contract if you wanted to later in the life of the player/contract. I know there’s the 10/5 rule to deal with but especially for a smaller/medium sized market club, couldn’t it increase the value of the contrat?

Dave Cameron: You can already do that by just agreeing to pay a portion of the deal as part of the trade. You don’t have to frontload a deal to make the out years cheaper for an acquiring team.

Lance: I have this feeling the Astros might decide to bid on Cespedes. Gomez and Rasmus are probably gone after this year. What do you think?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see it.

Gareth : There’s been differing opinions on who is the best Indians pitcher right now. Kluber or Carrasco. Who do you like better?

Dave Cameron: Kluber.

Mr. Mariner, Alvin Davis: Favorite place to eat in the Seattle area?

Dave Cameron: Paseo.

Matt: You mentioned on twitter the Angels should consider trading for Ozuna if they really want to stay under the tax, but they’ve got so few trade assets beyond their SP “depth.” What might that trade look like?

Dave Cameron: Marlins want pitching, so it feels like there could be a fit there.

Gareth : Padres and Orioles. Who’s more mediocre?

Dave Cameron: Neither one offers up enough interest to force a choice.

Gareth : Is it me or are the Dodgers monopolizing the international market?

Dave Cameron: That’s pretty much true. The international system is so broken that it incentivizes teams to just keep spending once they’ve gone over the limit.

The Gyorko Store Called: re CBA: What change is the players’ highest priority? Increasing the luxury tax threshold?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, probably.

Hayek: If you believe in the public school system, then playing the lottery could be considered an investment in our children’s future. So there’s that I guess.

Dave Cameron: Or don’t support a regressive tax on the poor (which is what the lottery is), and just pay more in taxes or donate directly to your children’s school.

Murdoc: Does the Braves’ return for Miller change the way you look at the Heyward trade at all?

Dave Cameron: Nope. You can’t count on Dave Stewart looking his mind a year in advance.

Urban: So teams who are locked into cable contracts longer term than other teams will be at a disadvantage?

Dave Cameron: My guess is when the cable industry begins to implode, MLB will have their over the top network ready to go and have a procedure in place to end existing deals with networks.

Dave Cameron: But this is all a good ways down the line.

Gareth : The swap of Ben Revere and Drew Storen is being lauded as a very fair and equal trade. I disagree. Toronto for hosed. 2 years of Revere for one year of Storen, who was not wanted in Washington. Sure Toronto had an outfield surplus. But c’mon.

Dave Cameron: Revere will have basically no value in 2017 after another round of arb. If anything, I’d say a great year from Storen could result in them making him a QO, which could potentially them get a draft pick and cause them to come out way ahead. I like this for TOR more than WAS, though I see it as worth doing for both sides.

Bob: Kendrick looking foolish for not taking QO. Not too many options for him. I like the Royals fit for him better than Parra, tho costs them a pick. Very late pick tho.

Dave Cameron: Kendrick will do just fine.

Tim: Do “late game defensive replacements” make any sense? Those defensive replacements are usually great-glove, no bat players that can’t sniff a starting lineup. But isn’t a run on offense and a run on defense worth the same, regardless of score? If the replacement is overall worse than the starter, doesn’t it hurt the team’s chance of winning?

Dave Cameron: You put in a defensive replacement after the bad fielder hits, so the good fielder gets 3 innings worth of defensive value and often doesn’t ever have to bat.

Dave Cameron: So you gain fielding value and lose nothing offensively.

Brian: CBA idea: every team puts in $5M to a pot whose proceeds get distributed out to players based on performance who are under team control. Your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: In my THT Annual piece, I proposed a workers comp system that would do something to the same effect but for players who get injured, since they’re the ones who really get screwed by the current system.

John: What makes you think Lagares is “fine” as an everyday CF? He had 1.0 WAR with 140+ games played last year, appeared to have regressed offensively, and his valuable 2014 season was based exclusively on defense which relied on a throwing arm that has an underlying condition that hasn’t been addressed. Why should we expect a bounceback year?

Dave Cameron: Because opinions based on a single year of data, when there is more than a single year of data available, are mostly worthless.

RO: As a late twenty-something how much of my cash should i be keeping in a bank and how much should i be putting into index funds? I’m maxing my 401(k) contributions. Do I then just take cash out of the index funds when i need a down-payment for a house? Any insight to this will be helpful, thanks a lot Dave!

Dave Cameron: You should have a significant emergency fund, equal to something like 3-6 months of your expenses, so if you lose your job, you won’t end up running up big credit card debt. If you’re saving for a down payment, you probably don’t want that to be in something as volatile as the stock market, so depending on your timeline, you’d probably want to look at something more like a CD.

Compton: Any FG meetups planned for Arizona Spring Training this year?

Dave Cameron: So we’re actually not doing our Arizona ST trip this year, because we’re going to do something pretty cool in June instead. Stay tuned for an announcement about that.

Greg: Is the draft pick compensation part of the CBA? It would seem that from the player’s point of view it’s costing them money when teams may be gunshy of signing them if that pick is tied to them.

Dave Cameron: Yes, it’s in the CBA as a tax on salaries to drive down prices. It’s doing exactly what it is designed to do, which is why the owners will demand a concession to get rid of it.

Ray: Can you expand upon your response: “The Dodgers are implementing a lot of ideas that I’ve advocated for previously”? Thanks

Dave Cameron: Their R&D department is enormous. They’re blowing up the international spending market. They’re focusing on roster depth over high-end pieces.

Matt: Sure, the lottery might be a positive investment at this point after tax and multi-winner considerations, but even if it were, look at the margin: >$584m isn’t ACTUALLY worth 292 million times (approximate lottery odds) more than your $2 investment. I’d much rather spend $2 for a 1 in a million chance at a million.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, this is the funny thing; people start playing the lottery when diminishing returns kick in. In reality, the first million is the one that you want, and the extra $1.29 billion matters a lot less.

Hunter: Who will command more in a trade Sonny Gray or Matt Harvey?

Dave Cameron: Gray

Kimball: Do you still have the ear of the chat developers? It would be pretty nice to be able to see the questions one has in the queue…

Dave Cameron: You want to be able to see your own questions?

Homer: Where do you think Carlos Gonzalez ends up? I could actually see him going to Toronto..

Dave Cameron: Baltimore.

Compton: Marlins to sign Wei-Yin Chen. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Chen is a good pitcher. Will be interesting to see what he got in terms of dollars.

Mike: Rockies signed Parra for 3 years, $26 million. Seems like that would’ve been a good fit with the Mets at that value to platoon with Lagares, no? Is Parra a poor CF?

Dave Cameron: Yes. Stop it, Mets fans. Stop. Lagares is fine.

Dave Cameron: Okay, I should end this chat and go write about Wei Yin Chen.