Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/23/16

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday.

12:02
Dave Cameron: And happy last day not feeling full for a while.

12:03
Dave Cameron: Let’s talk some baseball, or some Thanksgiving, for the next little while. I can’t guarantee we’ll make it an hour today, as I have to start cooking fairly soon, but we’ll go as long as we can.

12:03
CarrotJuice: Give me your hottest take on Castro signing!

12:04
Dave Cameron: If the team that employs Mike Fast isn’t interested in bringing you back, maybe your framing value isn’t as likely to continue as the Twins are hoping.

12:05
Sam: Assume: 1) Braves don’t make any silly moves, 2) several of their top prospects develop as predicted. Playoffs in 2018?

12:07
Dave Cameron: Let’s say they’re about a ~75 win team now. If we give them real improvements from Swanson and Albies along with a couple of the arms, okay, now they’re at ~80? Because it’s not like those improved arms are replacing zeros; Colon and Dickey project for ~+3 WAR in 2017, so swapping in young kids for those two isn’t going to be some massive upgrade.

12:07
Dave Cameron: Now, if they take the Colon/Dickey money and spend big on a premium FA next year, okay, that could get them to the mid-80s.

12:07
Dave Cameron: But they’re not that close.

12:07
Bork: Is the threat of a lockout just the owners saber rattling or do you think that there’s an actual threat of of a lockout?

12:08
Dave Cameron: Feels like the kind of thing one side leaks to try and get the other side to budge. The kinds of things they are reportedly talking about — international draft, qualifying offer, etc… — just don’t seem like big enough issues to actually instigate a lockout.

12:08
ohioastrosfan: I believe that the Astros moves set them up very well to have maximum leverage headed into winter meetings. No more moves HAVE to be made. How intentional do you think this was?

12:09
Dave Cameron: I don’t think that was really much of a consideration. I think they had money to spend, targeted a few guys who fit what they were looking for, and got them dene early so that they didn’t get left holding a big bag of money at the end of the winter.

12:09
Turkey Tom: Dave, please give a 20-80 grade to the following holiday pies: Pumpkin, Apple, Cherry, Choc Cream, Pecan. Is Pumpkin overrated, and in fact does it have any positive trade value? Do you have any sleeper pies we need to be aware of?

12:10
Dave Cameron: Cherry is a 30, Chocolate Cream is a 35, Pumpkin is a 40, Apple is a 60, and Pecan is a 65. But Sweet Potato is a 70, and that you left it off the list is criminal.

12:11
Ronnie: How much has the information gap narrowed from the A’s “Moneyball” years until today? With most teams presumably working with pretty similar data at this point, is the application of that information where front offices can best gain an edge?

12:12
Dave Cameron: Yeah, we’re now at a point where basically every team gets the basic concepts that were “cutting edge” 15 years ago. The real differentiators at this point are not so much in the front offices, but in how well the information is traveling through the organization.

12:12
Dave Cameron: There are definitely still clubs out there where smart people are doing good work and it’s not getting used.

12:12
Zonk: Important question: Roasted, Smoked, Deep Fried, or other preparation for your Turkey? Did a Fried last year for the first time, turned out really well, but not easy…

12:13
Dave Cameron: I’m going with roasting a broken down bird this year. My family is all flying in tomorrow, so I needed the flexibility to have things cook quicker than usual, and so having the turkey already in pieces is going to save me a bunch of time.

12:14
Dave Cameron: Plus, then I can cook the dark meat longer than the white meat.

12:14
Zonk: What major changes are you expecting with the new CBA? What would the impact be of having a 26th man….major, or minor?

12:15
Dave Cameron: I think we’re going to get more tweaks than overhauls. The 26th man discussion is interesting, and makes sense as a way to compensate for service time for cutting down September expansion. I wonder if the league will push for a limit on pitchers, though. Could see the rule being that teams get 26 active players, but no more than 13 can be pitchers.

12:16
Brian: Is Brian Dozier worth a top 10 prospect?

12:17
Dave Cameron: Probably not. Say he’s a +3.5 WAR player, so he’s worth something like $30 million a year for the next two years. He’s going to make $15M instead of $60M, so there’s a lot of value there, but top 10 prospects are worth more than $45M.

12:17
Andrew: Dave, you’re the man.

12:17
Dave Cameron: Well, thanks.

12:17
Dave Cameron: Apparently someone at daycare logged my kid onto the chat.

12:18
Dave Cameron: (My kid is named Drew, is the joke that I just realized no one will get)

12:18
Scott: Thoughts on Cecil signing?

12:18
Dave Cameron: Perfectly reasonable. He’s good, and that’s what relievers get now.

12:19
Conrad: Why aren’t the White Sox blowing it up? They could seemingly rebuild the whole farm system by even dealing just Sale. Is there really any reason for them to be standing pat this offseason?

12:19
Dave Cameron: They’re taking offers on him. It’s early.

12:19
Q-Ball: The Nats seem very “stars and scrubs”. Harper, Turner, Rendon, Murphy are a great core, Espinoza is OK, everyone else is really not good. Is that a fair assessment? What should the Nats do to just not suck at 1B/OF/C?

12:19
Dave Cameron: I guess we’re only talking about their position players, because you just ignored Scherzer, Strasburg, Roark, Ross, Gonzalez…

12:20
Dave Cameron: They could use another good hitter or two.

12:20
Dave Cameron: But they’re a very good team.

12:20
Zonk: There is no question Jason Castro makes the Twins better. But is it too soon for them to sign a veteran catcher like that? Or does he figure to be important to development of young pitching?

12:21
Dave Cameron: Yeah, they can probably argue he’ll help guys like Berrios. Plus, they had to spend their money on something. Better something small than more Ricky Nolasco deals.

12:21
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Mayonnaise: Tasty add-on, or satanic hell-spew that should be banished from existence?

12:22
Dave Cameron: I put it in tuna, and that’s about it. I don’t hate it like some people do, but I also find it mostly unnecessary, and it’s pretty terrible for you.

12:22
Q-Ball: It looks like the BBWA voters did what you didn’t expect: Voted for the best player, Mike Trout. Is your faith in BBWA voting reaffirmed?

12:22
Dave Cameron: I would go more with strengthened than reaffirmed, since I clearly underestimated the voters.

12:22
Dave Cameron: But it says a lot about how much progress the voters are making.

12:23
Jimmy: We finished last, our GM got suspended, President got fired, and now we have the worst uniforms in baseball. Can the Padres do anything this offseason to make it an interesting one? Trade some of the medium players left on the roster for something decent? Maybe a find a SS somewhere?

12:23
Dave Cameron: They should take the Brewers approach; go take a bunch of flyers on guys with interesting track records but some kind of fatal flaw that makes them available.

12:24
Dave Cameron: The Brewers found a good pitcher in Junior Guerra, a potential regular CF in Keon Broxton, and a solid infielder in Jonathan Villar.

12:24
Dave Cameron: You give guys like that chances, hit on one or two, and now you’ve got some pieces besides Wil Myers.

12:25
MK: Are nats more likely to replace werth or zimmerman this year?

12:25
Dave Cameron: Probably Werth. He looks pretty old at this point.

12:26
striker: Chris Sale, David Robertson, Zach Putnam to the Red Sox for Bradley Jr., Eduardo Rodriguez, Christian Vazquez, Travis Shaw, Henry Owens and Michael Kopech.

12:26
Dave Cameron: I think Boston probably doesn’t see enough 2017 upgrade there to justify the long-term costs. Probably want to rework it to cost them less off their big league roster.

12:28
Jeff: Where do you fall on the future-of-Taijuan Walker spectrum? Seems like some think he’s destined for the bullpen and others are holding out hope for a future ace. If the answer is somewhere in the middle, what does he need to do to improve upon his chances?

12:28
Dave Cameron: I don’t think anyone really knows. The stuff is there, the command is there sometimes and not other times. It’s not hard to see him becoming a good pitcher. It’s not hard to see him flaming out. I wouldn’t be shocked if he ended up in the bullpen either.

12:29
Mansion in the morning: How did you get into baseball?

12:30
Dave Cameron: We didn’t have a TV growing up, so I listened to the radio a lot as a kid. And frequently, that meant listening to Dave Niehaus broadcast baseball games. I also used to have to go to my parents business — they own a Volkswagen repair shop and parts store — since they want to get us a sitter to stay at home, so I’d walk down the road to the 7-11 and buy packs of baseball cards. Then I’d memorize the numbers on the back.

12:31
Dave Cameron: So, radio and baseball cards, basically.

12:31
Carl: Matz and Conforto enough to headline a Sale deal? Or Amed Rosario needed in there too?

12:31
Dave Cameron: Hard to use Matz as a big trade chip given his health issues right now.

12:31
Dave Cameron: Too much risk.

12:32
Carl: Cranberry sauce – Canned or Homemade?

12:32
Dave Cameron: Homemade. It’s so easy!

12:32
Undecided: Would you rather have 3 years of Sale or 5 years of Archer?

12:33
Dave Cameron: 3 years of Sale. Pitchers break down so often than the extra long-term value from Archer might never materialize.

12:33
Jack C.: I have not seen any rumors on this, but do you think the Nationals would package Turner, Giolito, and Lopez for Chris Sale? Would that plus another prospect or two make sense for either side?

12:33
Dave Cameron: They’ve said they’re not trading Turner.

12:34
Philip Christy: Pumpkin is a 40? Get out.

12:34
Dave Cameron: Pumpkin is fine if you don’t have Sweet Potato, but you might as well just have Sweet Potato. It’s better.

12:35
JohnJahaFan93: In terms of a guy like Chris Archer, with that much control and surplus value, are there scenarios where it makes sense for a probable non-contending team to trade for him? Especially if they have a high pick in the 2017 draft.

12:35
Dave Cameron: Not really. With any pitcher, the value is still almost all in the short term, because there’s so much risk of long-term breakdown, that having a non-contender outbid contenders who could use the 2017 value doesn’t make sense.

12:36
Derek: What would the Nats have to give up to get McCutchen? Robles+ enough or would he need to be paired with another top level guy like Giolito or Lopez?

12:36
Dave Cameron: Yeah, you’d have to give up more than Robles for Cutch.

12:36
Dave Cameron: Giolito and Robles probably make PIT think.

12:37
Lieutenant Dan: Do you think it would behoove GM’s to come out and explain at least a vague plan to the fanbase, of how they are trying to compete? Ie, we’re not going after high priced FA’s, and this is why…..or, we’re trying to get younger, so we’re trading our vets away. Something along those lines?

12:38
Dave Cameron: I think teams somewhat do that.

12:38
Dave Cameron: Maybe not that specific, but they generally leak enough information that beat writers can give fans a reasonable expectation.

12:38
B.B. Rodriguez: Does buying some FG merch. make up for using adblock and not me a FG member? If so, how much. Like a sweater should cover me for a year or two right.

12:38
Dave Cameron: We make almost nothing on the merch.

12:39
Dave Cameron: If you use adBlock, you really should be a member at the mininum.

12:39
Dave Cameron: Otherwise you’re basically just taking our content for free. And none of this is free to run.

12:40
The Hamburglar: I’m having trouble finding a landing spot for Jose Bautista. Where would you guess he lands? Back to the Jays?

12:40
Dave Cameron: He’d be an interesting fit in Cleveland if they were willing to open up the payroll a bit.

12:40
Dan O’Dowd: The Rockies could win 90 games in 2017 of they ________.

12:40
Dave Cameron: Get really lucky.

12:41
Justin: Why are baseball operations jobs so low paying? Demand for those jobs so high that they can still get quality candidates with low salaries?

12:42
Dave Cameron: Yep. Lots of people are willing to take reduced income to work in baseball, especially kids who grew up pretty well off and don’t really need to make a lot of money.

12:43
jon: The Cubs intimated they would sit out this winter to save up for Otani. They obviously aren’t the only ones thinking this way. If he gets posted next winter (23 years old and therefore non-capped IFA), what does his deal look like? 8/$200m? More?

12:43
Dave Cameron: A good bit more. Tanaka got 7/$155M and wasn’t anywhere near Otani in terms of talent.

12:43
Dave Cameron: Toss in inflation and Otani’s bat, and I’d bet $250M is the starting spot.

12:44
Richard: I don’t understand why an international draft is viewed as such a complicated undertaking. All it needs to do is determine which team owns rights to the player, the likelihood as to whether the player signs with the team would eventually sort itself out in the draft order. i.e. every team would draft Otani, but if you didn’t know if he would come over, maybe not in first round. Thoughts?

12:46
Dave Cameron: It’s way more complicated than that. Japan would argue they don’t even belong in the system, since they have their own Major League, and many of their guys coming over are veterans who don’t want to have their rights controlled for six years. You can’t have the same system for a 16 year old and a 37 year old.

12:47
Vanilla extract: I MUST be in cranberry sauce.

12:47
Dave Cameron: Orange juice too.

12:47
Bun: I put orange juice in my homemade cranberry sauce. I am a heathen.

12:47
Dave Cameron: No, you’re wise.

12:47
Outside Animals: I think Sweet Potato Pie is a little more regional. Also, store-bought Sweet Potato Pie is more terrible than store-bought Pumpkin Pie

12:47
Dave Cameron: Okay, yes, those rankings were homemade only

12:48
The Hamburglar: Sweet Potato Pie is Mike Trout, Pumpkin Pie is Steve Souza

12:48
Dave Cameron: Overstatement, but not that far off.

12:48
AJ Preller: Why didn’t I offer more for Kevin Maitan? Did the Braves have something with him that went beyond money? We gave 11 mil to Morejon, so seemingly Maitan would definitely have been affordable.

12:49
Dave Cameron: Rumors around the game are that the Braves had Maitan locked up for a very long time, so his advisors didn’t listen to other offers.

12:49
Dave Cameron: Okay, I’m going to have to end it there.

12:50
Dave Cameron: Have to go pick up my turkey, buy some last minute groceries, and start the cooking.

12:50
Dave Cameron: Happy Thanksgiving everyone.

12:50
Dave Cameron: We’ll see you next week.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

11 Comments
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Dooduh
7 years ago

Wait, the Bucs are just ‘thinking’ over an offer of the mid-season #4 and #13 players for Cutch? Uh, sure Dave. That’s the package that prob gets Sale. No way a diminished Cutch nets that. At 2/28M, there just isn’t a lot of excess value unless someone thinks he’s really due to bounce back big.

Dooduh
7 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

Yes and we know that Luhnow overpays in every trade he’s made. That was a fairly ridiculous overpay for 2 yrs and 23M due a declining part time catcher.

If you think McCutchen is going to net 2 top 20 prospects I don’t know what to tell you.

Dooduh
7 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

And for every McCann for two strong pitching prospect deal there is Neil Walker for Jon Niese. So not every deal out there sets the market. In the end it’ll come down to what any one team is willing to fork out.

I guess we’ll see where this goes.

Dooduh
7 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

And what teams have you talked to? And so go ahead and tell us what they are willing to deal for Cutch.

Sam Samson
7 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

First you tell us what teams you have talked to that think McCutchen is worth less.

Dooduh
7 years ago
Reply to  Sam Samson

Wait, what?! Dave is the only one out there suggesting Cutch has anywhere near that much market value. He is the one who said he ‘spoke to teams’ not me. I’m admittedly just using basic logic for the value of a player off a <1 win season with $28M due cannot command two elite prospects. Heck, Lucroy at the deadline didn't yield two BA top 20s.

Dooduh
7 years ago
Reply to  Dave Cameron

More likely that swap involves Gio Gonzalez and a couple other good but not elite prospects.