Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/25/15

Dave Cameron: So, as you guys can see, we’re testing out a new piece of chat software today. I chose today for the test run since I expect this will be a lower traffic day, given Thanksgiving tomorrow, so while we’re still going to answer your questions, I also wanted to use this to get some feedback from you guys on how the software is working (or not working). So feel free to let me know what you guys see, and we’ll play around with this system to see if it’s something we want to switch over to.

Dave Cameron: Alright, since this is a bit of a beta test for this new software (built by a FG reader, by the way), we’ll start a couple of minutes early. Definitely interested in hearing your feedback as we go along.

Andrew: Now baseball related…when evaluating a past free agent contract, should the distribution of production be taken into account? If we were to look at Shane Victorino from ’13-’15 – $39 million for a total of about 6 wins, but all 6 wins came over the course of a single season. Is that more valuable, less valuable, or equally as valuable as if he were to have 3 2-win seasons?

Dave Cameron: There are differing schools of thought on this answer, with some people absolutely convinced that wins are non-linearly valuable, so a +6 WAR season is worth way more than three +2 WAR seasons. I don’t think that’s really true in practice, though, at least not to a huge degree. If there’s a multiplier, I think it’s probably something like 1.1x instead, so maybe one +6 WAR season is worth +6.6 WAR compared to three +2 WAR seasons being worth +6 WAR, or something to that effect.

Eric: up or under, 50% chance Redsox land David Price?

Dave Cameron: I’d say under, because he might just not want to play there, and at some point, the marginal difference between $220 million versus $205 million or something isn’t going to change his lifestyle.

Pollard St: Are the Nationals more likely to have Chapman or O’Day on their 2016 roster?

Dave Cameron: O’Day. I think if they wanted to pay the price for Chapman, they’d have done so in July. He’s less valuable to them now.

CoolWinnebago: Hi Dave – would it make sense for a NL SP with reasonable job security to rest his arm all winter and concentrate on hitting? Keep in mind that I have no idea what the normal offseason program for a SP is.

Dave Cameron: I would imagine that a pitcher would lose more value by focusing heavily on improving his offense rather than working on refining his pitching. Pitching talent isn’t fixed, and guys are always working to add new wrinkles, improve flaws, and figure out ways to adjust to declining stuff as they get older. Making those adjustments, or preparing to do so, is more important than trying to go from a .150 hitter to a .160 hitter.

striker: Your thoughts on Chris Taylor as a SS for the White Sox? What would Hahn have to surrender?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think he’s going to hit much, so I don’t see him as a blocked prospect as much as a good fit as a job-share guy with Marte in Seattle. That gives them a bat-first SS and a glove-first SS, so I doubt Dipoto is in a hurry to weaken their depth there.

@outfieldgrass24: If the Dbacks were to sign Maeda and Kazmir, plus trade for one or two very good but non-elite RPs (Will Smith, AJ Ramos), does that give them a chance in the NL West?

Dave Cameron: A chance, maybe. But they’re still a good ways behind LAD and I don’t know that they have the flexibility to make those moves this winter.

The Dude Abides: So I like the look of the new software so far.

Dave Cameron: Good to hear. We were definitely looking for something minimalist, and I like that this isn’t trying to do too much from a visual perspective.

oz10: Does Ozuna’s skill set translate well to Safeco? Good power in the minors but it seems like power can get lost there. Any chance he’s a decent bounce back candidate?

Dave Cameron: He has power to all fields, which is necessary for an RH hitter there, since the LCF area is brutal. It’s not really an ideal park for any RHB, but he would get hurt less than a strict-pull guy.

Kerry: Thoughts on the Mariners possibly landing Marcell Ozuna? What would be a logical piece or package they would have to dangle to get him?

Dave Cameron: I would think the deal would have to be built around Paxton. Karns and Elias shouldn’t be good enough for the Marlins, and Dipoto loves Walker.

guayzimi: Do you think the weakest link in a fangraphs chat is the software or the content?

Dave Cameron: Well, if you think the content isn’t worth your time, then there’s nothing we can do about that. But we can try to improve the process of getting questions answered, which is why we’re exploring our options.

Jacob: Hi Dave, Happy Thanksgiving. The whole Twitter world (or at least my timeline) is an absolute David Price frenzy. He’s apparently favouring the Jays! Then there are reports saying that even the Jays know they have no shot. I know this is the silly season, but what is your read on this? Posturing to get more money from Boston or the Cubs? Or what?

Dave Cameron: I don’t see him going back there; Shapiro isn’t a throw-money-at-the-top-FA kind of executive. They’d probably top out at 5/$150M or something, and he’ll do way better than that elsewhere.

Joel: What could Dipoto land for Trumbo who is predicted to make in the $9M range in arbitration? Doesn’t seem like he could get much…

Dave Cameron: A mid-level prospect. Keep in mind that Mike Morse got 2/$16M on the open market last winter, so there are still teams willing to pay premiums for RH power with no other skills. Trumbo would do better than 1/$9M as an FA, so he has a little value.

Jordan: I’ve heard more Mariners rumors the last two weeks than I have in the last few years. If you ran a team would you hide your rumors and shut out the press, or more/less broadcast them as we see happening here.

Dave Cameron: Maybe my perspective is different, but I didn’t see any rumors about the Martin/Wilhelmsen trade before it went down. The Iannetta thing came out a while ago, but that was a pretty obvious connection anyway, and isn’t the kind of thing where being secretive is going to get you any big advantage.

Scrapper: Looks good so far. So on to the questions! Would the Cubs be better off with Price or Zimmerman + Samardzija? Assume that the total cost outlay would be comparable, say around $190-200 million.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think there’s any way you get those two for $190M, honestly. I had Zimmerman at $140M and Samardzija at $75M in my free agent predictions, I think, and that’s not accounting for the fact that those totals would have a higher present value because you’d be paying more up front, since Samardzija’s deal won’t be seven years.

sup bro: What do you love and hate most about Thanksgiving?

Dave Cameron: It’s hard to go wrong with a food-centered holiday. Trying to figure out how to avoid political talk with the in-laws is always tricky, though.

Curtis: If Ozuna ends up in Seattle what moves would seemingly be left for the Mariners? They’ve been busy…better?

Dave Cameron: I doubt Dipoto keeps Trumbo, especially if he adds an RH hitter in Ozuna to play RF. And if they trade one of their SPs, they’ll need to add at least one more, since they’re thin there. And the bullpen needs work.

Joel: According to the FG Free Agent tracker we’ve only seen 9 FA deals get done (3 of which are qualifying offer deals)? Does that seem low, or is that about par for the course?

Dave Cameron: No question the FA decisions are going slower this year. I think the later start to the off-season has more people just deciding to take things to the winter meetings.

Bret: Lots of David Price talk in Toronto. While we don’t know what Toronto will do, I hear a lot of talk about how it’s risky to commit ~20-25% of your payroll to one player. Payroll concerns are obviously legitimate, but you can also argue a contending team is better off with David Price and a $110M payroll than no David Price and a $140M payroll.

Dave Cameron: Of course. Every team would theoretically be better with a higher payroll.

Pollard St: Can you think of a better single year pitching duo than 2015 Greinke/Kershaw?

Dave Cameron: 2001-2002 Johnson/Schilling.

Brett w: Would the Reds keep Chapman if no one meets their asking price?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. He’ll have more value now when the acquiring team can get the draft pick than in July when the QO is off the table.

The Dude Abides: I know half a season isn’t much, but how much money did Cueto cost himself with his poor showing in KC? If he didn’t cost himself money, did he limit his suitors to strictly NL teams?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think it will be that much. Maybe $10-$20M.

Dave Cameron: Which, okay, that’s still a lot of money. But he’ll be fine.

Compton: Does Pedro Alvarez have any value or is he more of a non-tender candidate at this point? Also, what could the Pirates reasonably expect to get back for one season of Neil Walker — anything close to what the Angels got for Howie Kendrick last year?

Dave Cameron: He’s a non-tender. I’m not sure why there’s so much talk about trading him. He’s not good.

Dave Cameron: I think teams probably like Kendrick a bit more than Walker, and most people felt that Heaney was an overpay for a rental, so I’d guess PIT will get less.

Zonk: So, the early contracts for Ianetta and Soto indicate to me that FOs’ are not fully bought into pitch framing value, particularly for an elite framer like Ianetta. Do you agree? If so, it is that FO’s are slow on the uptake, or that they feel the value of pitch framing is exaggerated?

Dave Cameron: This isn’t new; teams haven’t paid much for framing in any off-season since it became the hot new thing to talk about. Conger, Hanigan, Rivera all traded cheap compared to their framing estimated numbers last winter, McCann didn’t get a big bump over expected price.

Dave Cameron: I think teams believe this is a teachable skill, and they don’t need to pay for it if they can just coach it instead.

Jason : It seems like the Orioles haven’t been able to develop a top line starter since the 1970s. What do you attribute that to?

Dave Cameron: Mike Mussina?

Jason : How many years does Corey Seager stay at SS?

Dave Cameron: I’ll guess two.

The Dude Abides: Might be something on my end, but the interface is very slow in this. I’m typing well ahead of the words showing up in my question.

Dave Cameron: Other people seeing something similar?

PS: What piece would make the Yankees a legit contender? You could argue they are a fringe contender, but expecting some drop-off from at least one of the Senior Citizens…

Dave Cameron: I think they’re already in the mix as a contender, and should probably be making a run at one of the better arms on the market.

Tps: Piscotty provide enough value at 1B?

Dave Cameron: He’s better than Adams.

Rays 7th Infielder: New software looks fine, but I don’t like how if I’m catching up on the chat, it takes me down the most recent comment – even if I’m reading something from 15 minutes ago.

Dave Cameron: So if you’re reading old questions and a new one comes in, it pulls you down to the new one automatically? Yeah, that’s not great.

Bozo: Kudos on new look. Simple and plain. Braves seem to want mlb talent in return for Miller or Teheran. Would you give up Duffy or Panik for one of them, given that Tomlinson could fill their spot?

Dave Cameron: No way.

Forsyth: One issue with the software is that, when I’m trying to catch up by reading above, everytime a new question/answer is submitted, it shoots me down to the bottom. But – there is an Autoscroll option under Settings (that little gear icon) that prevents this. Just an FYI if anyone else is having that issue.

Dave Cameron: Ah, good to know; looks like you can turn off autoscroll, but should that be the default setting, with people opting-in instead of opting-out?

Dave Cameron: Hey, look, a poll.

Snarfle: New software is pretty good. One thing: it seems like the background shade alternates between shaded and white no matter what (so if you post three times in a row your comments will alternate). It might be less confusing to have the chat host be one shade and commenters be the other.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s good feedback, thanks!

PS: Who’s the first major FA domino to fall? Price to TOR?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Price signs all that soon, to be honest. I could see Cespedes or Upton going off the board before the winter meetings though.

Jason: In every other sport, the first day of free agency is insane but in baseball it seems to drag on for weeks before things get going. Why do you think that is?

Dave Cameron: Free agency begins much further away from the end of the season in other sports, I believe.

Eric: Just wanted to say I like the new software. Oh, and the mail lady just delivered the THT!

Dave Cameron: You’re having a pretty good day then.

The Dude Abides: A’s reacquiring Jed Lowrie for minor league RHP Brendan McCurry. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Seems like a good fit for the A’s. I thought Houston got a nice deal with Lowrie last year, and they frontloaded the deal, so he’s even cheaper on an AAV basis now. Astros needed to clear 40 man spots, and Lowrie was redundant after Correa became a monster.

Bando: Chat software much, much better. Liking the compactness a lot. Re, baseball things: Assuming both players approved, how much cash would have to change hands to make Cano for Ellsbury “fair”?

Dave Cameron: I think Cano is something like $80-$90 million in the red now, and Ellsbury is probably $40-$50M in the red, so $40-$50M.

Billy: MLB network mentioned something on Heyward being a potential fit for the Angels. This sorta makes sense to me, as they have resources, he’s young enough for his prime to overlap with Trout’s, and he’s a left handed hitting OF (either he or Calhoun could adjust to LF I imagine), which is a great fit for their lineup. Your thoughts?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, Heyward-Trout-Calhoun would be an amazing outfield. They should at least be in the mix.

Jason: Do you already have Szymborski’s ZIPS projections already? He’s holding out on us, right?

Dave Cameron: They’re scheduled to start rolling out next week.

Catoblepas: What do you think the gap in talent is between the 5th-best GM and the 25th-best GM?

Dave Cameron: Pretty small. I think baseball has eliminated most of the GMs who didn’t belong as GMs.

Pirates Hurdles: Had this pop up in the header – “Error! Please enable cookies in your browser”. Didnt seem to affect function though

Dave Cameron: Good to know; the designers of the software are going to read the chat so I’ll publish stuff like this so they can see it.

Compton: Chances that Ray Searage turns Allen Webster into something of value for the Buccos?

Dave Cameron: Maybe if they turn him into a reliever. I don’t see a starting pitcher there.

jballz: greinke back with dodgers? if not, think they sign an arm or make a trade(possibly involving puig)?

Dave Cameron: If they don’t sign Greinke, I’d say they’ll definitely sign another FA starter. But I’d bet they do sign Greinke.

Catoblepas: So far, this chat software not only seems to look better than cover-it-live, it seems to run much faster. CIL always managed to murder Chrome, this is great

Dave Cameron: It’s much much faster on my end as well, so glad to hear that’s the same for you guys.

Jason: People have been comparing young Cub hitters to young Met pitchers for the last year but what 1 for 1 trade between the two teams would make sense to you?

Dave Cameron: I think Castro/Wheeler is in the fair-ish range, because I’m not super high on Wheeler.

The Dude Abides: Was it smart for Wieters to take the QO given the chance of injury to a catcher?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think so. He has a chance to get a huge paycheck next winter in a terrible FA class if he has a good year.

Turkey Tom: Terducken: Sound tasty, or a holiday abomination?

Dave Cameron: I’ve never had it, and I don’t have a ton of interest, to be honest.

Matt: Hey Dave, I like the new software here! So question…Who says no: Joc Pederson, Austin Barnes, and Jose de Leon for Shelby Miller and Christian Bethancourt?

Dave Cameron: That would be an insane overpay for the Dodgers.

JWR: You ever have any fellow FGers over for the holidays? Szymborski would probably require that you double up on turkey and stuffing.

Dave Cameron: Not for the holidays, but Sullivan is coming to NC the weekend after the winter meetings. I’m going to serve him all the fried food he can handle.

Curtis: In three years Kyle Schwarber is playing ____ for the _____________.

Dave Cameron: 1B, A’s.

JP: Do you think the Reds heard and rejected Margot for Chapman? Because that seems like a fantastic return (for the Reds) to me…

Dave Cameron: If they turned that down, I think they made a mistake. My guess would be that Margot was only available to SD because Kimbrel wasn’t a rental.

David: Alex Gordon 5Y 90M or Ben Zobrist 4Y 72M who would u get if u r GMDM?

Dave Cameron: At those prices, I’d take Gordon.

Zonk: Good point on pitch framing, but if it’s a teachable skill, why do some catchers still consistently stink at it? (I am looking at you, Salty). Or regress?

Dave Cameron: Like any skill, some guys will be predisposed to being better at it easier than others.

Lawrence: If autoscroll is off, you have to manually lower the chat to see each new comment. Not good.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, it seems like a catch-22.

Phil: Yes, but if you turn autoscroll off, it no longer scrolls even once you have caught up. You have to keep manually doing it. So, best to turn it off while catching up and then turn it back on once caught up to present questions.

Dave Cameron: I’ll ask the Jotcast guys if there is a way for them to make the autoscroll on/off toggle more obvious so that this is a more intuitive shift for people.

MIchael Scarn: I can’t get the poll results off the middle of the chat screen

David: If Mike Trout had four MVPs right now, would baseball’s perception of him be any different? or does pretty much everyone know how good he really is?

Dave Cameron: I think everyone knows.

Adam S: As a software guy, autoscroll should just work. If I’m viewing the most recent post, automatically scroll when new posts come in. If the last post is off screen, don’t scroll.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that seems like the ideal solution. I’ll pitch that to them.

Joel: Do you think we’re seeing the beginning of the decline of Felix Hernandez?

Dave Cameron: It’s going to happen eventually, so sure, it’s definitely possible.

Dooduh: Yeah adding to what others have said, bravo on finding some decent chat software. CIL has been pretty brutal.

Dave Cameron: I will note that there actually aren’t a lot of options out there. This isn’t a marketplace overflowing with great options.

Julio Pepper: Would you trade Mookie Betts for Chris Sale? (I would not)

Dave Cameron: I think I would, actually. And I love Mookie, but Sale is amazing.

Q-Ball: Rank these pies in order: Pumpkin, Apple, Chocolate Cream, Pecan , Cherry? What do you feel is most underrated?

Dave Cameron: Sweet Potato is so underrated you didn’t even list it.

Dave Cameron: 1. Sweet Potato 2. Apple 3. Pecan 4. Meh to the rest

Bando: Ooooh, fun game. In three years, Mark Teixeira is playing ____ for the _____________.

Dave Cameron: Yahtzee, his kids.

JP: But it’s not like those additional Kimbrel years are much below market, right? Miller just signed for 4/36, and Kimbrel’s not that much better. Couldn’t they have just extended Chapman and turned him into a non-rental?

Dave Cameron: Chapman’s going to ask for 5/$100M or something. It’s not just the AAV that makes him below market, but the fact you don’t have to guarantee the years 3-5.

Dooduh: Would you say De Leon for Chapman is in the right range? Or another prospect is added to th emix?

Dave Cameron: About right.

JWR: Being an analyst/economist, what would your advice be to high school seniors who are contemplating college choices? How much debt would you suggest kids take on to get into a top-tier (more prestigious) school? Or is it all about the major?

Dave Cameron: That’s a decision with too many variables to give a firm rule for everyone. I’ve read a decent amount of literature that suggests that the expensive non-Harvard/MIT/Stanford level programs don’t provide positive ROI over a lower cost state school.

Dave Cameron: I went the state school route and avoided debt entirely, since I paid something like $2,500 per semester. So I’m probably biased in that direction, but if you get into Princeton, I’m not prepared to say it’s a waste of money.

Scrapper : If Cubs don’t get David Price, what do you think is their Plan B?

Dave Cameron: Samardzija.

Matt: Why does Fangraphs HATE Shelby Miller so much? He’s a dirt cheap, controlled #2 starter. That has a ton of value!

Dave Cameron: Even if you judged him solely by ERA (which you shouldn’t), he’s not a #2; career ERA- of 87 is good but not great. And that number is based on a .274 BABIP and 8.4% HR/FB rates, which you should regress in a future projection. He’s an innings-eater.

Compton: RE: Mike Trout’s greatness being recognized. If you go to a site like Yahoo! Sports, tons of people still don’t acknowledge him as the unequivocal best player in the league. For example, any Jeff Passan article that mentions Trout inevitably has at least 10 very distasteful comments, all with many upvotes, about Passan’s erotic desires for Trout. It’s quite frustrating.

Dave Cameron: Don’t read the comments.

Aunt Jessie: Okay, when I closed this window fan on my laptop stopped spinning. Coulda been the ad I guess but I don’t normally have a problem with that on my laptop. Also, as stated, on the iPad the chat software is really bad… the chat window was slowly shrinking one pixel at a time, and typing was HORRIBLY laggy. This is chrome on os x and it’s okay, but the fan was spinning and typing was lagging before I closed/reopened the window.

Dave Cameron: We’ll pass it along, thanks!

Northsider: Underrated pies: Key Lime and Shepard’s

Dave Cameron: Oh, yes, Key Lime Pie is amazing.

Dave Cameron: Shepard’s Pie is not really pie.

Aaron: Banana cream is the best pie, Dave!

Dave Cameron: I don’t like bananas much, so…

Phil: Sweet Potato Pie: The Carolinas’ answer to pumpkin.

Dave Cameron: True story; had my birthday dinner last night at a restaurant called Sweet Potatoes. Got the trout stuffed with sweet potato cornbread and a sweet potato bread pudding for dessert. Sweet potatoes are the best thing about living here.

Matt: I know you used the word “ask”, but do you really think Chapman will get 5/100?

Dave Cameron: No, but he’ll get close. Maybe $80-$90M.

Scrapper: If you were a GM, at what point would you trade or release a player because of off the field issues? Would it be a sliding scale based on how much value the player brings to the team?

Dave Cameron: Domestic violence = automatic DFA. Beyond that, off the field is too vague a term to answer specifically.

David: marcell ozuna or Jackie Bradley jr who will be better productive player in 5 years?

Dave Cameron: I’d take Ozuna.

Matt: I’m currently working in analytics in the financial sector (marketing) but reworking my resume a bit and trying to look for positions in an MLB FO. I’m under 30, but no industry experience (other than hobby stuff on FG data). Is it too late for me to be accepted into the industry? Did I need to get in sooner?

Dave Cameron: It’s not too late, no. You just need to do something to set yourself apart from the crowd. Build something that shows what you can do.

Scott: Do you think we’ll see the DH in the NL in the next 5 years?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Jonathan: Why isn’t a Harvey for Betts swap even being discussed?

Dave Cameron: 5 years of Betts is more valuable than 3 years of Harvey.

Scott: Are the A’s planning to have Butler at 1B, Lawrie at 2B, Lowrie at SS and Valencia at 3B? What about Semien? 3B and Valencia at 1B or LF?

Dave Cameron: Lowrie at 2B, Semien at SS, Lawrie at 3B, Valencia as 1B/OF/bench guy.

Dave Cameron: Okay, time for a poll on your opinion of the new software, versus staying with CIL.

Dave Cameron: Response to Jotcast seems good so far. We’re going to keep testing it out over the next month or so, so keep the feedback coming. Thanks for all the opinions today.