Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 1/18/17

12:08
Dave Cameron: Sorry about the delay!

12:08
Dave Cameron: I’m here.

12:08
Dave Cameron: I had to finish up a Tim Raines piece before starting the chat, which you can read here. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/what-would-a-modern-tim-raines-look-like/

12:08
Edgar Martinez Hype Man: Ad Free Fangraphs is so much better. Does Edgar Martinez get in next year?

12:09
Dave Cameron: Ad-free FanGraphs is so much better. If you haven’t signed up yet, you really should. Better for you, better for us, better for the planet.

As for Edgar, I think his last ballot in two years will be his shot. He’s going to need the Raines “are you sure you don’t want to vote for me?” pressure.

12:10
Erik: What do you think of the Saunders signing? Combined with the Kendrick trade, it looks like the Phillies have taken a lot of plate appearances away from their recently arrived or soon-to-arrive young outfielders like Altherr, Quinn, Williams, and Cozens. Will they have enough game time available to give those guys looks to see if they’ll be valuable future pieces?

12:10
Dave Cameron: Well, those guys you named are all either bad or not yet big league ready.

12:11
Dave Cameron: Saunders and Kendrick are solid enough players to allow those guys to keep developing in the minors until mid-season, and if anyone forces the issue, they can trade the veteran in July.

12:11
Maxamuz: Whats your take on Eric Thames?

12:12
Dave Cameron: The power is legit; the question is whether the strike zone judgment improvements from the KBO are real. It’s not that odd for guys to figure out what to swing at later in their careers, so I’d probably guess he’ll be a good hitter in the U.S. this year. Not a star, but an average-ish player.

12:12
Erik: JP Crawford already projects as better than Freddy Galvis. If service time restrictions didn’t exist, would he be the Phillies’ opening day starter? Or are there things he needs to learn in AAA that can’t be learned at the big league level?

12:12
Dave Cameron: He wasn’t great in Triple-A last year. I’d imagine the Phillies would force him to earn his way to the big leagues regardless.

12:12
J: For the most part would an outfielder put up the same WAR in all 3 spots? Just would be better defensively than the competition in the corners relative and better offensively in CF?

12:13
Dave Cameron: Average defenders, close to that. But extreme guys, no. If you took Billy Hamilton and put him in LF, he’d get fewer balls hit his way, so his defense would matter less, and his value would go down a bit. If you took Mark Trumbo and put him in CF, his lack of range would be exposed even more given the greater number of opportunities, and his value would go down.

12:14
CamdenWarehouse: What sort of year does Upton need to have to opt out or is that off the table at this point?

12:15
Dave Cameron: He’ll have 4/$90M left on his deal after this year, so to get a raise from that, he’d have to really crush the ball. Something like a 140 or 150 wRC+ with sustained excellence all year.

12:15
Bernie: Hi Dave, in your post about finding the Dodgers a 2B, what do you think about Jonathan Villar as an option?

12:16
Dave Cameron: Probably not impactful enough for the Dodgers to give up the kind of talent the Brewers would want.

12:16
Craiggers: Thoughts on the Wil Myers extension?

12:16
Dave Cameron: Probably worth doing for SD, given that they have to spend money somewhere, but it wasn’t cheap. An injury-prone 1B getting $20M a year three years out from FA is no huge bargain.

12:16
AKA22: If you were GM of the Reds, how would you try to get Phillips to accept a trade? Is there anything that would work to make both sides happy?

12:17
Dave Cameron: I’d probably just cut him.

12:17
Dave Cameron: If they want him to go away, that’s how you do it.

12:17
v2micca: So the Braves are trying Alex Jackson back at catcher. Do you see this as a good move for both sides?

12:17
Dave Cameron: The bat doesn’t look like it works anywhere else, so might as well try.

12:17
Dan: I’m moderately concerned about the health and depth of the Cubs rotation. Arrieta & Lester 600+ innings last 3 years, Hendricks 400 last 2 years…I don’t see a lot of rotational depth if one gets injured. Anybody still out there worth taking a flyer on?

12:18
Dave Cameron: Well they could trade Baez for De Leon… But yeah, this is a problem for CHC. They should be in on at least one more starter, and maybe two.

12:18
Erik: Given Cesar Hernandez’s youth and team control, the Phillies’ rebuilding status, and the fact that he put up 4.4 WAR last year, he seemed conspicuously absent from your Brian Rosier alternatives article yesterday. Yet ZiPS just projected him for 1.7 WAR. Do you (and presumably the Dodgers) think he’s closer to a 4.4-win player or a 1.7-win player going forward?

12:18
Dave Cameron: He’s nowhere near a +4 win player this year. He’s a mediocrity who had a fluke season.

12:19
TommyLasordid: Per your suggestion of De Leon+ for Baez: Any additional insight on just how reluctant two competing front offices are to making a blockbuster deal like that? Does fear of fan reaction if trade turns out bad often kill an otherwise logical move?

12:21
Dave Cameron: It’s not so much fan reaction, as it is aversion to helping someone you’re trying to beat. It’s easy to talk yourself into the idea that maybe even if this is the best deal possible for you, perhaps you can find a slightly-worse deal that doesn’t also benefit your rival, and creates a larger overall advantage.

12:21
Gest: How does Billy Hamilton’s trade value compare to Andrelton Simmons’ when he was traded?

12:22
Dave Cameron: Probably similar. Simmons had a more favorable contract, but there were some personality issues there too, and Hamilton is probably seen a bit more favorably in that way.

12:22
brockb03: Who produces the best 2017 for the Brewers out of Santana, Broxton, and Thames?

12:22
Dave Cameron: Broxton. I’m not sold that he’s as good as Jeff thinks, but even his downside looks not too different from Kevin Pillar.

12:23
Matt: Just purchased my ad-free membership. It’s been a whole 5 minutes, and already it might be the best purchase of the year.

12:23
Dave Cameron: Awesome, thank you. Your support is highly appreciated.

12:24
Big Joe Mufferaw: The the Angels GM told you he was planning on trading Mike Trout in Feb in an “Off the record” convo, would you leak the story for 100,000$?

12:24
Dave Cameron: This question could be rephrased “let’s value Dave Cameron’s ethics!”

12:25
Dave Cameron: I’d like to think my word is worth enough to not sell it for financial gain. But you never really know until someone actually puts the cash on the table, right? I’d hope I’d say no to any offer.

12:26
Toki: If Heyward struggles or something unforeseen happens in Center. Do you see the Cubs moving Bryant to the Outfield more and putting Baez at third more often? Or getting Candelario at bats at third?

12:26
Dave Cameron: I would imagine Baez would play 2B and Zobrist would go to the OF.

12:26
Devil Ray J. Johnson: Do you think FIP (or its successor) will incorporate statcast data? What do you think it will look like?

12:27
Dave Cameron: I would hope that, in a few years, we don’t need FIP anymore. Hopefully we’ll have full Statcast data, tracking every play, and we’ll be able to develop a metric that correctly assigns value to pitchers and fielders based on the quality of contact.

12:27
Dave Cameron: Maybe we’ll still have a total metric that scales to ERA, but I would think it would be more useful to have something like BB%, K%, and Quality of Contact Adjustment.

12:28
James: Is Danny Duffy’s ERA at the end of the year closer to 3.00 or 4.00?

12:28
Dave Cameron: 3.00

12:28
Matt: Do you think the Dbacks ultimately try to turn Archie Bradley into an effective reliever this year or keep trying him as a starter?

12:29
Dave Cameron: They’re not trying to win, so better to keep trying him as an SP for now.

12:29
Dave Cameron: Chat on hold for a minute or two while I figure out how to type after the dog just climbed in my lap.

12:31
Dave Cameron: Okay, now using the dogs back as a laptop table

12:31
Dave Cameron: We’ll see how this goes

12:31
Mike M: What’s your opinion on Mike Montgomery? Potential sleeper as a #4 guy or really just a bullpen arm?

12:31
Dave Cameron: Reliever.

12:31
QBalls: What sort of production can we expect from Mitch Haniger this year?

12:31
Dave Cameron: Average-ish bat, probably above-average D in RF.

12:32
jon: How close to the top 50 trade value is Javy Baez?

12:32
Dave Cameron: Not that close. Cubs fans really overrate him.

12:33
jay_B: The Cubs seem to think Schwarber has a Edgar-like hitting ceiling based on their unwillingness to trade him even while injured. He made them look good during the WS, but what do you think his likely peak looks like?

12:33
Dave Cameron: I’m sticking with my left-handed Mike Napoli comp.

12:33
Dave Cameron: The contact issues make an Edgar-esque career unlikely.

12:34
Bret: How does the Jays offseason look as of today?

12:34
Dave Cameron: Pretty good. Bautista signing is more positive than Morales signing is negative.

12:34
Twins: Are we just asking for too much for dozier?

12:34
Dave Cameron: I think so, yes.

12:34
Austin: Do you see a problem with the lack of diversity in MLB front Offices?

12:34
Dave Cameron: Yeah, it’s a huge problem.

12:36
Dave Cameron: I think it was Farhan Zaidi who noted that it’s basically impossible that the actual best candidates for 99% of all baseball jobs are white guys. By limiting the pool of available candidates, teams are ensuring they get an inefficient result from hiring.

12:36
Mike M: Are there any big trade rumors brewing or are things just really quiet right now?

12:36
Dave Cameron: Yeah, not much going on. This is the slow time of year.

12:37
Wilson: Don’t the Dodgers and Cardinals have similar roster construction? Consistently above average position players with no holes, SP depth, a couple wild cards, strong bullpen. I think both are primed for strong seasons given health.

12:37
Dave Cameron: The Cardinals don’t have Kershaw

12:38
Trevor: Dave, saw your article on ESPN, I’m not an insider though so I don’t know what was said…but who do you see as a lights out reliever that is hiding as a poor starter?

12:38
Dave Cameron: I would be interested in seeing what Jimmy Nelson looks like as a one inning guy.

12:39
Steve from Cleveland: Hey Dave, long time listener first time caller. Who is the best Fangraphs writer in all the land? I’ll hang up and listen

12:39
Dave Cameron: Sullivan is the Mike Trout of this job.

12:39
Sterling Malory Chris Archer: If you were forced to write up a review of every AB of a 1-2 win player this year, who would you pick?

12:39
Dave Cameron: Ichiro.

12:40
Curtis: Does defensive WAR decline faster, in general, than offensive WAR?

12:40
Dave Cameron: Yes. Or, said another way, defense peaks earlier.

12:41
TwistedLogic: So much has been written about Raines and Martinez. Why does nobody talk about Larry Walker? Career wRC+ of 140, 230 stolen bases, defensive numbers in the positives. He has better numbers than Tony Gwynn across the board and he’s polling at 20% on his 7th year on the ballot.

12:41
Dave Cameron: Walker is the victim of the crowded ballot. That we have to still talk about obvious HOFers like Mussina and Raines means there isn’t time to talk about Walker, especially with all the PED stuff taking up so much air.

12:42
Shawn Coleman: Obviously with baseball becoming smarter in that makes sense not to overpay for power, what is the market for a player like luis valbuena. An infielder with his pop makes sense for a lot of teams as a bench piece, why does he remained unsigned when a player like sean rodriguez signed so early?

12:43
Dave Cameron: Rodriguez could play more positions

12:43
Dave Cameron: Valbuena is a corner guy.

12:43
Monsignor Martinez: Am I the only one thinking that the Mariners might have been better off keeping Mallex Smith?

12:43
Dave Cameron: What would you have done with him?

12:44
Dave Cameron: He’s not better than any of Dyson, Martin, or Haniger.

12:44
DJ Kitty: Is Bautista an overpay in this market?

12:44
Dave Cameron: Not at all. Great deal for TO.

12:44
Jason Rollison: Dave, loved the talk you and Carson had about moving propspects to bullpen to maximize value. Do you think the Pirates should take that approach with Tyler Glasnow, who has had extreme difficulty in developing a third pitch? Can a small market team withstand that kind of change in course?

12:44
Dave Cameron: Not sure Pirates have enough SP depth to move Glasnow yet, but if he’s still struggling in June, yeah, I’d try him in relief.

12:45
Chaps: Of the three pitchers that have been linked to the Astros (Gray, Quintana, Archer), who do you think is the most likely to get traded to the Astros?

12:45
Dave Cameron: Quintana

12:45
Moltar: Are you gonna be the Jonah Keri of Edgar?

12:46
Dave Cameron: Unfortunately, no. I love Edgar and I would vote for him, but he’s not an obvious yes like Raines is. He’s a borderline candidate, right there with guys like Walker. I can’t muster up the kind of passion you’d need to argue with people who aren’t voting for him.

12:47
Ari: If Jay Bruce were a free agent this offseason, what do you think he would get?

12:47
Dave Cameron: 1/$9M.

12:48
Richard: Hi Dave. Does Bautista retain his 10-5 rights or is the clock reset by the break in service?

12:48
Dave Cameron: There is no break in service, as he never switched teams.

12:48
Eric Weinstein: Agreed that Baez for DeLeon would recquire some sweetening from LAD but is interesting. But how much sweetening would the Cubs have to do to turn Baez into Urias? Adding Ian Happ?

12:49
Dave Cameron: Can’t imagine they trade Urias for a package of future value. Maybe if the Cubs offered Baez/Schwarber or something.

12:49
mtsw: Just read Jeff’s article on AT&T Park’s extreme HR factor. How do you square the enduring popularity of the Giants since moving there with the conventional wisdom that fans want more scoring and more HRs?

12:50
Dave Cameron: Fans want wins.

12:50
Dave P: With baseball contracts being guaranteed, what is the point of a signing bonus (e.g. Wil Myers)? Why not just have higher annual salary?

12:50
Dave Cameron: It helps the player with tax burden.

12:51
war2d2: Will Effectively Wild affect Fangraphs Audio? I’ll give up 5 EW’s for a single FA every week, if that matters.

12:51
Dave Cameron: They won’t impact each other. Now we just have two baseball podcasts.

12:52
PR: dumb question, where do you click to sign up for ad free fangraphs. am i blind?

12:52
YOLO: I’m not trying to pry too much in to Fangraphs’s financials but you keep mentioning that the memberships are helping you to continue to provide content, etc. Was Fangraphs in danger of shutting down? Or scaling back?

12:54
Dave Cameron: No, we weren’t in trouble, but the online ad business is an uncertain one, and we have a much better chance of long-term sustainability if we have the revenue certainty of membership. As we said when we rolled out ad-free, we’re not really planning on this making us more money, as we priced it right at the point we think we’re likely to break even on lost ad revenue. This isn’t a cash grab. But having more consistent revenue from memberships lets us do things like hire people like Travis Sawchik, since we can be more confident in our future revenues.

12:55
John: You’re Mike Rizzo. Scott Boras calls and says Bryce Harper is willing to sign a 10-year $400M extension. No opt-outs or options. Full no-trade clause. But you have to decide today. Ownership says it’s your call. Do you do it?

12:55
Dave Cameron: Easy yes.

12:55
Hunky Dory: Broxton plays Pillar-level defense?

12:55
Dave Cameron: No, but he looks like a plus defender in center based on early results, and the bat is probably a little better.

12:56
E: We talk about guys being bad defenders but thats all relative to other major league players. Would someone like Trumbo or Matt Kemp still be the best defensive shortstop in my Wednesday night softball league?

12:56
Dave Cameron: Probably, yeah. These guys are still professinoal athletes.

12:56
Dave Cameron: And I’m a professional speller, but that goes to show we all screw up.

12:57
Mike: Wouldn’t it be smart for the Cubs to trade zobrist either midseason or after. I feel bad cause he just signed but Baez is clearly the future and if his bat improves a lil bit more we should get rid of the jam. + he’s gotta be worth at least a decent mid level prospect

12:57
Dave Cameron: Zobrist has a full no-trade.

12:57
CamdenWarehouse: Re: dog on lap – working from home is hard

12:57
Dave Cameron: About two minutes after the dog took over, the kid came and asked for a milk re-fill.

12:58
Dave Cameron: I need an office.

12:58
Aaron: Hey Dave, last week you said that with ad free memberships, you might be able to write things that aren’t necessarily popular and are what people who buy ad free memberships are interested in. Do you have any examples of this?

1:01
Dave Cameron: So, just as an example, research pieces tend to not do all that well traffic wise, especially compared to something like a trade suggestion piece. The Dozier/De Leon thing I wrote yesterday was really popular, for instance, and pieces like drive a lot of traffic. But if we eventually got to a point where we had a membership-based revenue model and not a traffic-based model, we could do more deep-dives into topics that have a bit more niche appeal. Say, for instance, looking at market-specific dollar per win numbers. I think it’d be fun to come up with a reasonable estimate of what each team can afford to spend in free agency based on their revenues without crippling their franchise, but that’s not going to drive enough traffic to keep the doors open here.

1:02
Dave Cameron: That isn’t to say that it’s an either/or choice, and that we want to be all research, all the time. But if we ever got to a point where traffic didn’t matter, we could definitely do more research.

1:02
GG: I like the idea of replacing FIP with something based on Statcast. How important would park adjustments be in this hypothetical stat? I’m thinking of Coors as the extreme (of course) where the environment has an effect pre-contact, i.e. breaking pitches not breaking as much.

1:03
Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s going to be one of the big hurdles to jump. And that’s something we’ll need multiple years of data for.

1:03
Dave Cameron: There’s also the calibration issue, as Statcast readings from one park might not exactly equal readings from another park. This is why you need big sample sizes.

1:03
Dave Cameron: Or bigger than we have now, anyway.

1:04
Bill: Building off of the previous question, is Danny Duffy’s innings pitched total for 2017 closer to 100 or 200?

1:04
Dave Cameron: 200.

1:04
J: How big of a hurdle are Moncada’s strikeouts?

1:05
Dave Cameron: Sizable. I think his career path probably is Buxton-esque, and he’s going to struggle a bit when he comes up, and people will give up on him too soon.

1:05
TengoPreguntas: The dbacks aren’t trying to compete?

1:05
Dave Cameron: Not in a serious way, no.

1:05
Dave Cameron: They’re not very good.

1:06
NatsFan: Does Corinne Landrey still write for FG? I haven’t seen anything by her for a bit

1:06
Dave Cameron: She does not; she got a job that took her out of the public writing sector.

1:06
Dave Cameron: We definitely miss having her around, but are happy for her.

1:07
Cookie: Best thing about Bend so far? Worst thing?

1:07
Dave Cameron: The access to the outdoors is amazing. These giant mounds of snow sitting on our roof and in our yard can go away at any time now, though.

1:07
van stretch: Your stance on Schwarber surprises me..he may strike out a lot but i thought he’d proven to have a pretty discriminating eye?

1:08
Dave Cameron: So did Napoli.

1:08
Dave Cameron: For the record, Napoli isn’t an insult. He has a career 123 wRC+ and put up +27 WAR. That’s a good career.

1:08
Sonny: If you had to design a player with one 80 grade and nothing else above 30 what breakout nets the most value?

1:08
Dave Cameron: Probably an 80 fastball on a reliever. That’s kind of Aroldis Chapman.

1:09
Bill G: Dave, are you planning any Fangraphs event in Bend? Might be interesting to see how many followers you have in town, also might see if we could build a local DMB league.

1:10
Dave Cameron: When the season starts up, I’ll probably put something out on Twitter and see how many folks we can get for a meetup at Deschutes or something.

1:10
Dmitry : I am a happy ad free member, but how is it good for the planet?

1:10
Dave Cameron: You’re happy, and we’re happy that you’re a member, and the world needs more happiness.

1:11
Moltar: So can I read it right that if the Mets paid down $4m of Bruce’s salary they could outright dump him, and any additional money they eat will be returned in prospect value?

1:11
Dave Cameron: Yeah, something like that.

1:12
CamdenWarehouse: What’s the most popular piece so far this year? Grow’s?

1:13
Dave Cameron: Yeah, that thing did really well.

1:13
Ari: Re Bruce at 1/$9, if I had asked you that in early November (when the Mets exercised the option on him), would you have said the same thing? Or has the market cratered since then.

1:13
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t have picked up his option.

1:15
Dooduh: TBH, these questions about Bend, dogs, IRAs, etc are kinda annoying to those people who are frantically submitting a handful of thoughtful baseball questions.

1:15
Dave Cameron: I probably answer a higher percentage of baseball questions than anyone else on staff. I’m sorry if you wish it was 100%, but it’s nice for us to change it up for a few seconds here and there.

1:16
Moltar: Man, people sure are touchy about their free offseason baseball content

1:16
Jeb: May you please tell us about your dog’s IRA, if she/he has one?

1:16
Matt: I enjoy the banter questions – from all writers. Allows me to get a better sense of personality and some more color about their beliefs when reading articles.

1:16
Dave Cameron: And we’ll just end with a few counterpoints.

1:17
Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out today, everyone.

1:17
Dave Cameron: We’ll do it again next week.

1:17
Dave Cameron: And remember, Dan Szymborski’s chat starts in 45 minutes.

1:17
Dave Cameron: So you can bug him too, Dooduh.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

12 Comments
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Dooduh
7 years ago

“Bug him..” Welp, sorry if you don’t get it. I ask a bunch of really thoughtful questions but you publish the one that appears bitchy. Thnx.

Owen Poindextermember
7 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

Let’s also keep in mind that Dave and the others get thousands of questions and only even see…someone help me out here…10% of them? Some of this is just luck.

alang3131982member
7 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

Oh man, if only there was an easy solution to him having the option to post your comment that IS bitchy….like maybe if you hadnt submitted it? I dunno……

chuckbmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

I have no doubt that’s true. Dave’s surely setting aside all your brilliant insights so that he can spend an hour a week talking about his dog. Hell, I’m glad he bothered to answer 1 or 2 baseball questions this week. That’s more than his average.

chuckbmember
7 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

Btw, if you don’t want to be called out for your questions that “appear bitchy,” don’t ask questions that appear bitchy.

And, for the record, your question didn’t “appear bitchy.” It was bitchy.

Spartacus
7 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

Ya know Dooduh, it not just this question that makes you appear bitchy. In most of your comments you come off as a dick. Maybe try editing before hitting “post”.

Dooduh
7 years ago
Reply to  Spartacus

Untangle your panties, Nancy. There is a world full of differing viewpoints out there. I’m not a fan of your work either but I support your right to express your opinion.

I was blowing off steam after throwing out a bunch of thoughtful questions and Dave throws *that* out, on top of which tells me to go bug someone else… that was really demeaning especially to someone who supports a lot of the content here.

Spartacus
7 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

I recommend a second account. Use that for blowing off steam, use the normal one for thoughtful comments. You post enough that the negative comments are giving you a bit of a harsh reputation. I know these are all anonymous, but for those of use here every day, we get used to the names. I get the frustration, hence the use of this account. Have a good day 🙂

Dooduh
7 years ago
Reply to  Spartacus

I didn’t realize that you were the reputation secretary here. I don’t remark or comment with the idea of burnishing my image. Hiding behind some alias seems like an extreme measure to take. This is just baseball.

If some nerves are touched by someone else’s candor, maybe those people are just a little too sensitive.

Spartacus
7 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

Untangle your panties, Nancy

Curious Gorge
7 years ago
Reply to  Dooduh

Wow Dooduh, you’re as thin-skinned as the President Elect.