Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/9/16

12:02
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

12:02
Dave Cameron: Well, not happy for everyone.

12:03
Dave Cameron: But let’s talk baseball anyway!

12:04
Travis Wood Stan: The Marlins don’t have enough pitching. Should they all out rebuild?

12:05
Dave Cameron: It still feels callous to talk about Jose Fernandez’s death in baseball terms, but the reality is that the franchise couldn’t really afford to lose him, and they did. They were a fringe contender with one of the best arms in baseball, and they don’t really have any way to replace him. I don’t think they’ll tear it down, but I don’t see a clear path forward in the short term for them either, besides just hang around .500 before admitting they need to pick a different direction.

12:05
Phoenix2042: Are we going to get articles on the gold gloves? Can they please include gifs of both phenomenal plays and hilarious bloopers?

12:05
Dave Cameron: People still care about the gold gloves?

12:05
VaBravesFan: Would it make sense for Atlanta to ship Albies, Allard, and Fried to Tampa for Chris Archer?

12:05
Dave Cameron: Of course it would, because Chris Archer is worth so much more than that.

12:06
Dave Cameron: The Rays would put a call block on all Atlanta numbers after receiving an offer like that.

12:07
Zonk: Hi Dave! What kind of contract do you foresee for Dexter Fowler? What teams would be a good potential fit?

12:07
Dave Cameron: We’re releasing a Top 50 Free Agents list tomorrow (or maybe Friday, depending on how fast I can write blurbs), and I’ll have my full contract estimates for those guys in that post.

12:07
Sam: As an Indians fan, I’d like to see Miller in the closer role and trade Allen for an OF. Do you agree, or do you think Miller will be setting up for Allen again next season?

12:07
Dave Cameron: Your takeaway from the postseason was “we need fewer good relievers”?

12:08
John Jaso Jingle Heimer Schmidt: GM meetings lunch trade: Billy Beane offers a snack pack and oreos for Mike Rizzo’s turkey sandwich, who says no?

12:08
Dave Cameron: Have you seen Billy Beane and Mike Rizzo? Why do we think Beane is the one with the oreos here?

12:08
Q-Ball: What team other than the White Sox, in your opinion, should be shifting gears to rebuild mode?

12:10
Dave Cameron: Pittsburgh is probably the other team with an interesting possible pivot this winter.

12:11
Dave Cameron: You’d be selling very low on McCutchen and Cole, but the Cubs are going to own the NL Central for a while.

12:11
ryan: where can I find year by year individual team WAR totals ?

12:12
Dave Cameron: You’ll have to do a little excel work to combine position player WAR and pitcher WAR from our leaderboards to get total team WAR.

12:12
Matt: Is Albies, Allard, and Touki enough to land Archer?

12:12
Dave Cameron: No.

12:12
Amir: If the Yankees fail to sign one of the big closers on the free agent market, do you think Betances can handle the full-time job?

12:12
Dave Cameron: Sure, no real reason to think he can’t, unless the workload of the last few years causes him to break down.

12:13
Rob: If the White Sox go the rebuild route, and it appears they will, they have to be all in, right? It would make little sense to only trade a couple of pieces like Sale and Abreu for example.

12:13
Dave Cameron: Yeah, they have too many guys at peak value to not just blow it all to pieces.

12:13
Guest: What’s your favourite part of working at Fangraphs? I feel like the chats would be surprisingly fun.

12:13
Dave Cameron: Probably the people I get to work with.

12:13
Dave Cameron: We have a great crew here.

12:13
VanExelent: What are the odds Justin Turner gets a $100+ million contract?

12:14
Dave Cameron: Pretty low.

12:14
Dave Cameron: He’s, what, 32? With knee problems?

12:14
CamdenWarehouse: This is the dynamic that we were supposed to see all along with the QO system, right? Teams offer a lot of QOs, the players start accepting, and then the system finds some balance because teams don’t actually want the players to accept. It just took longer than it should have to reach the second step.

12:14
Dave Cameron: The QO is still a bad system.

12:14
Dave Cameron: It’s less bad than what MLB had before, but it’s not good.

12:14
Q-Ball: Matt Carpenter a 1B…does that make sense to you? Has his defense declined that much at 3B/2B?

12:15
Dave Cameron: I don’t think it has as much to do with Carpenter as it does the rest of the guys. They’ve got Wong signed long-term, Diaz obviously needs to play, Peralta/Gyroko are still around. Of that group, Carpenter is the one with the most experience at 1B.

12:15
TKDC: It’s so odd for a team like the White Sox, to have 6-7 valuable pieces, and be a large market team, but they still should sell? Are the rest of their pieces just garbage?

12:15
Dave Cameron: Yup.

12:16
Dave Cameron: This is what happens when you count on guys like Avisail Garcia.

12:16
Ronnie: MLBTR projects Edwin Encarnacion getting 4/92 in FA. If that comes to fruition how much surplus value does Ryan Braun have with 4/76 remaining on his contract?

12:16
Dave Cameron: None. Encarnacion is better and doesn’t have Braun’s baggage.

12:16
Q-Ball: Now that Ruben Amaro and Dave Stewart are gone, what GM do we now love to criticize on Fangraphs? Could Dombrowski become our new punching bag?

12:17
Dave Cameron: Reality is there is no front office that is run by an unqualified GM anymore.

12:17
Zonk: Did Theo punch his ticket to the Hall of Fame?

12:17
Dave Cameron: Yup,.

12:17
Matt : Bryant Harper or Machado for next 5 years?

12:17
Dave Cameron: Harper.

12:18
Erik: The Phillies have a ton of money to spend and not a lot to spend it on. Do they just save it for next year? Or will they be in play for more free agents than we thought? Seems like kind of a waste to not do at least something with it now.

12:18
Dave Cameron: I would imagine they’ll spend on stopgaps. Rosenthal suggested they’ll be in on a Howie Kendrick trade, for instance.

12:19
Dubslow: Any chance one of the offseason improvements to the site could be the separation of the defensive runs from the positional adjustment runs on the WAR leaderboard? Suffice it to say that I was quite confused some months ago when I was wondering how David Ortiz accrued 20 or 30 runs of negative defensive value without actually playing defense, took me a few weeks to figure out that was only the positional adjustment

12:19
Dave Cameron: We already have defensive runs without the positional adjustment; it’s called UZR and DRS.

12:20
Dave Cameron: Before we had DEF, combining the fielding ratings at a position with the positional adjustment, we had people citing UZR and saying things like “Matt Kemp is the worst defender in baseball”, even though he just had the biggest negative relative to his position, and was clearly better than immobile 1Bs.

12:20
Devil Ray J. Johnson Jr.: Do the Rays need to do a full blown rebuild, or can they find enough upgrades on the cheap and from maybe trading one piece like Archer to get back into contention?

12:21
Dave Cameron: They were a .500ish team by BaseRuns last year. They are in a better spot than people think.

12:21
Ben: Josh Donaldson for Trea Turner and Lucas Giolito. Who says no?

12:22
Dave Cameron: Probably the Nationals. Donaldson only has two years left at high salaries; don’t think Washington would give up 12 years of Turner and Gio for that.

12:22
Alex: If Coppy doesn’t want to subtract from the farm and has money to spend, how should they handle this with a weak FA market? Should they seriously stand pat (for most part) hope to obtain another top 10 draft pick, and look for a huge swing in 2018?

12:23
Dave Cameron: If they were hoping for a top 10 pick, they’d trade Inciarte, wouldn’t have traded for Kemp, etc… They clearly want to be better next year. I’d imagine they’ll sign a few free agents.

12:23
Devil Ray J. Johnson Jr.: You can only vote one for the HOF (and it’s the deciding vote): Tim Raines or Edgar Martinez?

12:23
Dave Cameron: Raines

12:23
Zonk: Seems like everyone wants to trade for starting pitching this offseason. Is that your take? Do you see the prices in terms of hitters and prospects becoming Shelby Miller-like insane?

12:24
Dave Cameron: The only guy who would have made the Shelby Miller trade is unemployed now.

12:24
Cory: Do you think the Tigers are seriously going to trade Miguel Cabrera? It’s not hard to see how they can make a run next year with what Boyd, Norris, and Fulmer showed towards the end of last year, but Morosi continues to report that they’ll shop he and Verlander.

12:25
Dave Cameron: No, I don’t think they’ll actually move him. The contract is still an albatross waiting to happen, and they’re not going to give their franchise player away in a salary dump, so trying to find a package that would work for both sides will be nearly impossible.

12:25
Stay Out of Medford Dave Cameron: Best part of Oregon so far?

12:25
Dave Cameron: The access to nature, easily. I’m a 10 minute walk from the Deschutes River Trail, so I spend at least an hour a day walking through the woods next to a beautiful river.

12:25
Bernie Sanders Would Have Won: Thoughts on Bartolo? Anyone *thinking* about three years in this market, or is his age just too much?

12:26
Dave Cameron: He’s only going to get one year deals.

12:26
Dave Cameron: He’s 44.

12:26
Erix: Do you think there’s fire to the Jays resigning Edwin smoke?

12:26
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if they re-signed him. I don’t think he’s worth it at the prices people are talking about, though.

12:27
Scott: Should the Cardinals make Dexter Fowler a number one priority? Mozeliak has stressed defensive improvements.

12:27
Dave Cameron: Fowler’s positioning helped him this year, but he’s not a great defender.

12:27
britishcub: Will any big free agent sign before the new cbs is in place?

12:28
Dave Cameron: This offseason is going to operate under the old CBA terms, most likely. The new CBA will kick in next year.

12:29
Joe: Do you anticipate that Addison Russell could take another step forward offensively next season? He is only 22 years old, and if he could be a .350 OBP guy instead of a .320 guy, that would make him an incredible player going forward.

12:29
Dave Cameron: That would, but he’ll have to fix his contact problems for that to happen.

12:29
Dave Cameron: And that’s not so easy.

12:29
Seth: Schwarber for Archer, who says no?

12:29
Dave Cameron: Tampa

12:30
Pie: Jeff Luhnow said yesterday he has the green light to increase payroll after the relative penny pinching of the Astros over the past several years. Do you see them being in the market for EE, Fowler, Cespedes, etc? Outside of trading for an Archer or Quintana, I don’t see much utility in trying to sign a #4/5 pitcher given their organizational depth.

12:30
Dave Cameron: Cespedes makes the most sense, given their OF needs, I think.

12:31
A Tribe Called Kipnis: Who ends up at DH for the Royals?

12:32
Dave Cameron: I could see them going for a guy like Adam Lind.

12:32
Erik: How much of an advantage do the Dodgers and Cubs have in re-signing Jansen and Chapman? Is it quantifiable in terms of dollars?

12:32
Dave Cameron: Probably zero.

12:32
Dave Cameron: Jansen is going to the highest bidder, period.

12:33
Dave Cameron: Chapman likely has zero loyalty to a team he just played ~2 months for.

12:33
Doug: Could Justin Turner fit with the Angels? They don’t seem too high on Yunel Escobar

12:33
Dave Cameron: Don’t think they’re going to keep throwing money at older guys.

12:33
PR: a couple guys on twitter were saying Schwarber much more valuable than JBJ. you disagree i assume?

12:33
Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s silly.

12:34
Zonk: Jed Hoyer would like to find the next Andrew Miller or Wade Davis, i.e. failed starter that can be converted into awesome reliever. Can you name a couple guys that might have a shot at that type of conversion?

12:34
Dave Cameron: Andrew Cashner, maybe?

12:34
Luke: Obviously the Twins are in full rebuild mode, how do you feel about the front office moves?

12:34
Dave Cameron: Falvey and Levine both have good reputations. This should be an improvement for the decision making in MIN.

12:35
CJM: Dodgers list out today from Longenhagen? He mentioned it may be the day in his chat yesterday. Take away some of this pain, pls

12:35
Dave Cameron: Yep, Carson is editing it right now.

12:35
Julio Pepper: Wait really? Albies/Allard/Fried doesn’t get you most of the way to Archer? Isn’t that like a top 10 and two top 50 prospects?

12:35
Dave Cameron: No, no it’s not.

12:36
Matthew: What do you think the cubs do with outfield jam? Already crowded with Heyward, Schwarber, depending on the playing time for Baez, and Zobrist seems to be logical starters. Who do you think is more likely to be dealt Almora or Soler?

12:36
Wadlez: Nats need to move Turner to SS and get an OF right.. Also a closer?

12:36
Dave Cameron: Soler seems to be the odd man out.

12:37
Dave Cameron: Turner’s speed is probably more valuable in the OF than at SS.

12:37
Steven: Would you go full rebuild on the D-backs? Farm is barren, MLB team is full of holes.

12:38
Dave Cameron: I think you probably go forward with what you have until mid-season, and then re-evaluate. Greinke/Miller/Corbin all likely to have more value if they bounce back than they do now.

12:38
Guest: The royals have a lot of free agents coming up after 2017 with not a whole lot in their farm system. What do you think their short and long term strategies are?

12:39
Dave Cameron: I think they’re going to try to make one more run in 2017, fall short, then rebuild.

12:39
Joe: I’d be interested to see a post about a Pirates rebuild. As a fan, I think I’d like to see them just go for it for the next year or two and then blow it all up but I think there’s a good argument to sell off now.

12:39
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I definitely plan on writing about it.

12:39
Paul: How much would Atlanta improve if they added Hammel, Dickey, and Wieters this offseason?

12:39
Dave Cameron: Not much?

12:39
Rick Hahn: What’s my realistic haul for Sale and Quintana? 3-4 top 50 prospects for each?

12:40
Dave Cameron: I don’t think they trade Sale without getting a big leaguer back in the deal. Could see him going to LA for a package built around Jose De Leon, for instance, but they’re going to want a guy they can put on the team right away.

12:41
Dave Cameron: Quintana won’t command the same kind of return.

12:41
Roadhog: Crazy idea – A’s trading for Verlander? A’s have tons of spending room, DET could eat some cash

12:41
Dave Cameron: Why would the A’s want Verlander? They’re rebuilding.

12:42
britishcub: Is there any way to filter team stats for at bats/war by a position? Cubs lf war just seems to be a sum of complete stats of every guy to play lf. (PA is way too high)

12:42
Dave Cameron: Yeah, you can choose “LF” from the splits dropdown, and it will only be PAs at that position.

12:43
CamdenWarehouse: What would be a better system? No compensation for FA signings/leaving?

12:44
Dave Cameron: I don’t think teams need to be compensated for losing FAs, but if they have to keep something in place, I like Jim Callis’ idea of multiplying the QO by 3x or 4x to get a total contract value minimum, instead of a one year minimum. So any contract over $50 or $60 million brings back a back, since those are the guys who are obviously valuable, and it doesn’t screw over guys wanting to sign for 2/$25M or whatever.

12:44
Warrior: Were you surprised by the electoral results in your old state of North Carolina?

12:44
Dave Cameron: No.

12:45
majordanby: turner, seager, correa, lindor, bogaerts or bregman for the next 5 years?

12:45
Dave Cameron: Correa.

12:45
Guest: Dave what vote do you have for the end of season awards this year?

12:45
Dave Cameron: NL Cy Young

12:46
Dubslow: On that Baseruns note, what does it mean for the Cubs 2017 projection that their BR record was around 107 instead of 103? Could the projections yet TBA possibly project 100 wins?

12:46
Dave Cameron: No, because they’re not going to allow a .255 BABIP again, or whatever they ended up at.

12:46
Nick: Should the white sox wait to trade Frazier/Melky until the deadline when the price is higher? One year of Frazier after hitting .220 isn’t going to bring back much, but at the deadline it might inflate the price

12:47
Dave Cameron: Except if you trade him now, the acquiring team can price in a comp pick with a QO next winter.

12:47
Dave Cameron: So the price will be higher now.

12:47
Jesse: Would Benintendi, Kopech and Devers be enough to get Sale?

12:47
Dave Cameron: No

12:48
Jordan: Do the Nats do something at 1st besides run Zim and there and cross your fingers?

12:48
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d imagine they’ll get someone to provide 1B/OF depth.

12:48
Prich: Is it just me, or is the latest trade of giving up three years of Nuno for one of Ruiz another example of Jerry DiPoto continuing to undervalue his assets?

12:49
Dave Cameron: Vidal Nuno isn’t very good.

12:49
Kerry: Does Felix’s contract now fall into the “albatross” category?

12:49
Dave Cameron: Yeah.

12:49
Jerkstore: Kevin Pillar+ Stroman for kyle Schwarber?

12:49
Dave Cameron: Why would the Blue Jays do that?

12:49
Mark: Giolito, Lopez, Fedde for Sale, who says no? What about for Archer?

12:50
Dave Cameron: Sox/Rays both say no.

12:50
E: Cubs still heavy favorites going in to next year? Anyone else close?

12:50
Dave Cameron: Dodgers could be within shouting distance if they make a few good moves.

12:50
mike: Can you help me better understand why the white sox should blow it up when they do have so many high quality players? To me their division is not that formidible. Why not continue to at least try increase the team’s floor through the addition of depth?

12:51
Dave Cameron: Because even with those good players, they’re a mid-70s win team. Even if they could find a few more decent role players, the best they’re looking at, realistically, is to get to .500ish, and then hope for 10 wins of luck.

12:51
Dave Cameron: That’s not a great plan.

12:51
Jordan: Is it just me or has Atlanta fans become incredibly annoying with the trade proposals?

12:51
Dave Cameron: It’s not just you.

12:52
Phoenix2042: Archer or Sale would get a bigger return?

12:52
Dave Cameron: Sale

12:52
E: How has Liberty adjusted to the move?

12:53
Dave Cameron: She’s doing well. The biggest loss is we haven’t found a neighborhood doggy friend for her to play with yet like we had back in NC — shout out to Mable, we still miss you! — but there’s so much amazing off leash area here that she’s getting a lot of time to explore.

12:53
I am the Walrus: Next Miller–Liriano??/

12:53
Dave Cameron: Miller throws strikes.

12:54
sitaman1: Lots of discussion previously about whether Cubs should have traded Schwarber for Andrew Miller when still with Yankees. In retrospect, did Cubs do the right thing in passing? Would they have won the World Series without Schwarber? Would it make sense today to trade 5 remaining years of control of Schwarber to Indians for 2 years of Miller?

12:54
Dave Cameron: Impossible to know what would have happened in alternate universe, but seems pretty clear that they could have really used Miller in the postseason, no?

12:55
Dave Cameron: Of course, Schwarber was pretty great in the WS too.

12:55
Noel : I know this is a pro dodgers website and they are my team but aren’t they being overstated as a perfect trade partner for the white Sox and sale? If urias is of the table almost every team can match a package of jose DeLeon and one of Bellenger or verdugo? That’s very underwhelming If im a sox fan !

12:55
Dave Cameron: I don’t think we even have one Dodgers fan on staff, much less being a pro-Dodgers website.

12:56
Dave Cameron: And no one said the offer would stop at DeLeon and Bellenger?

12:56
Jordan: I don’t understand why teams have to be punished for signing free agents, I see why a team wants compensation (not that I agree) but I don’t see why the signing team has to lose something as valuable as a draft pick.

12:56
Dave Cameron: It’s just a tax to try and drive prices down.

12:57
$11 Worth of Taco Bell: Which reliever do you think could turn into a decent starter? Would the profile be a reliever with a good change and good command?

12:57
Dave Cameron: Yeah, would have to be a guy who can get both RHB and LHB out.

12:58
jon: The Cubs have signaled they are unlikely to spend at the top of the reliever market (top of any market). They have $40 million coming off the books and WS revenue. What are they spending on? Doesn’t seem like anyone is blowing the draft pool and the Cubs are locked on international signings this year.

12:58
Dave Cameron: Bet they try to sign a bunch of extensions this winter.

12:58
Dave Cameron: Bryant and Russell the obvious targets, but wouldn’t be surprised if they tried to do something with Hendricks too.

12:59
Elton: Given the increased focus on the TTO penalty, do you think teams will be quicker to move struggling starters to the pen to be used in longer relief stints a la Miller in the playoffs? (though not as frequently of course) Will bullpen games in the regular season become more common you think?

12:59
Dave Cameron: You can’t do the postseason usage in the regular season; not enough off days.

1:00
HugoZ: Two trade proposals for Archer that you think are inadequate, and the Atlanta fans have become “incredibly annoying”? Maybe you need a longer walk in the woods.

1:00
Dave Cameron: This isn’t the first chat I’ve ever done.

1:00
Comish4lif: After taking a beating on election night, any chance Nate Silver returns to baseball?

1:00
Dave Cameron: Uh, wasn’t Nate the pollster who got it least wrong?

1:00
Dave Cameron: He was the only one saying that Trump had a legit shot.

1:01
Dooduh: Think Wil Myers is available?

1:01
Dave Cameron: No; think they see him as their franchise guy.

1:01
Zach Walters Appreciation Guild: What does a Lindor extension look like at this point?

1:01
Dave Cameron: I’d bet Cleveland finds out!

1:02
Dave Cameron: 1+ service time guys have generally signed pretty cheap, since they’re so far from FA. Maybe something like 6/$40M with a couple team options.

1:03
Dave Cameron: Okay, that’s going to do it for me today. Off to work on the Top 50 Free Agents post, coming soon!

1:03
Dave Cameron: We’ll see you guys next week.

We hoped you liked reading Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 11/9/16 by Dave Cameron!

Please support FanGraphs by becoming a member. We publish thousands of articles a year, host multiple podcasts, and have an ever growing database of baseball stats.

FanGraphs does not have a paywall. With your membership, we can continue to offer the content you've come to rely on and add to our unique baseball coverage.

Support FanGraphs




Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

newest oldest most voted
Mo Vaughn
Member
Mo Vaughn

I appreciate that Dave values stud pitching highly when discussing trade proposals, and that fans largely overrate prospects, but damn. Giolito/Lopez/Fedde for Archer isn’t even worth consideration? Benintendi/Kopech/Devers for Sale isn’t worth more than a flippant “no” ? If that’s a common FO perspective, then we shouldn’t even be discussing trades for Archer or Sale because no one is trading more than that for either.

Norrtron
Member
Norrtron

.

JediHoyer
Member
JediHoyer

Sale projects for 125 million in surplus value using 8.5 mil per win after adding 10 mil for a qualifying offer and subtracting 37 million for his contract.

Archer projects for even more albeit he isn’t as good as sale and that has value.

You can do the math but at most you can give giolito a 55 mil surplus evaluation, Lopez 30 mil, and fedde more like 15. So being generous you are like a Victor Robles short.