Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 12/30/15

Dave Cameron: Sorry for being a few minutes late.

Dave Cameron: We’ll get this thing fired up now.

Pat: Does Cashman have more moves in him?

Dave Cameron: I would think so. I’d imagine they’ll end up as players for whichever free agent SP ends up looking for a discounted deal in late January or early February.

Pat: What would it take for the nationals to part with Joe Ross?

Dave Cameron: Probably a good amount. I’m not sure what their motivation to trade him would be.

GB: If the O’s don’t resign Davis or another outfielder, do they work on a Machado extension ASAP?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think the two have much to do with each other. Machado is probably less likely to re-sign if he feels like the team isn’t making moves to keep the other good players on the roster, in fact; it might cost more to re-sign him right after Davis leaves than letting him wait for a bit and get away from that memory.

Q-Ball: As a Cubs fan, am I wrong in thinking that the Cubs are the only team in the NL Central that has improved this offseason? Or is that Cub-colored glasses? Pirates and Cards have lost some key players, and Brewers/Reds aren’t even pretending to contend anymore.

Dave Cameron: No, I think it’s pretty clear that the Cubs have separated themselves from the pack this winter.

Scott: Dave, are you doing anything special for New Years?

Dave Cameron: Early dinner with the in-laws and then hanging out at home while the baby sleeps. If you want excitement, don’t have a kid.

Scott: Do you think the Yankees should shop Andrew Miller? Personally, I think they need to stick with those three. It will make it a lot easier on that staff and maybe they won’t need to sign another starter.

Dave Cameron: There are diminishing returns to loading up on your relievers because there are only so many high leverage innings to go around, so if they can get good value for Miller, it’s probably worth considering. But keeping all three isn’t a bad outcome either.

Q-Ball: I really, really enjoyed the first couple prospect pieces by Dan Farnsworth. Are we going to see the whole league though? They look like a ton of work, just worried I won’t see my team 🙁

Dave Cameron: Dan got hit with a particularly nasty strand of the flu, but you’ll see the prospect reports start rolling out again next week.

Christian: With the emphasis on player opt outs this year, would you take that as a strong indication that agents think the next CBA will be favorable to the players? It seems most of these opt outs are hitting right after it would likely take effect.

Dave Cameron: I’d bet that the uncertainty surrounding what the luxury tax will look like is probably part of it. If the luxury tax goes up a lot, and it drives teams at the top end of the payroll tier to start spending more, then the guys who got opt-outs are more likely to get raises.

_David_: Am I correct that replacement level WAR is around 43, so the depth charts have the Mariners as about an 80 win team?

Dave Cameron: We define replacement level at 48.6 WAR per 162 games.

JC: What’s going on with all these FAs not getting signed?

Dave Cameron: This was a slow developing market for hitters, as a lot of teams seem comfortable going with in-house options or short-term plays rather than paying for offensive upgrades. But these guys will still get paid; it will just take some price adjustments to get some of the bidders on the sideline to start making offers.

Andrew: What are the Cubs’ weaknesses? Rather, how could their season unravel?

Dave Cameron: Jake Arrieta’s arm could break. If Heyward gets hurt, they outfield defense could be a disaster.

Scott: Is it crazy that I think the Twins have a potential great lineup? There is no doubt that they still need to add to their pitching.

Dave Cameron: You’re probably focusing too much on upside and not enough on what these players are right now. Buxton has a lot of tools but there are few reasons to think he’ll hit well in 2016.

Michael Scarn: Would Jackie Bradley Jr. for Jorge Soler be a win for both sides? Seems like they have roughly equal value and would help both teams maximize their CF-RF personnel.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, there seems to be a fit there, given the two team’s respective rosters.

The Boat: Holy smokes the Yankees bullpen

Dave Cameron: It’s going to be very good, but it might not actually be better than it was last year. Justin Wilson was fantastic last year, and if Betances/Miller regress at all, replacing Wilson with Chapman will probably just keep things roughly as good as it was in 2015.

The Boat: Obviously the domestic violence charges are a concern for Chapman, but given how little they gave up, was there any way for the Yankees to say no to this trade? They added 2-3 wins for practically nothing.

Dave Cameron: It’s probably closer to one win. Odds seem to point towards Chapman getting suspended for some period of time, so if it’s 25 games, that’s 15% of his value. Toss in the fact that there aren’t enough high leverage situations for all three of their elite RPs to pitch only in close/late situations, and the upgrade is going to be a bit smaller than it would be for another team.

Lucas: Does fWAR for NL relieve pitchers factor in the fact that they basically never face pitchers? It seems inaccurate to use the NL run scoring environment when it’s depressed by pitchers hitting.

Dave Cameron: Yes, there’s a league adjustment built in.

Charlie: What do you think of the Mets signing De Aza? Especially considering the fact that he probably can’t play CF?

Dave Cameron: Lagares is good enough to be the regular CF, so getting a guy to split time with him was a better idea than benching him.

Q-Ball: Eno Sarris suggested 2 weeks ago the Pirates should think out of the box and sign John Jaso. Did a Pirates intern show Huntington that article? Is Eno a genius? Seriously, do you know if any FOs get ideas from your blog?

Dave Cameron: There’s no way the Pirates hadn’t considered that idea before Eno wrote the piece. Teams spend months planning out their off-seasons, discussing all kinds of scenarios.

The Dude of NY: How to you say wOBA in verbal communication? Is it pronounced “Woba,” with a long o (?), or is each letter said out loud like an acronym?

Dave Cameron: I say woah-buh

TF Fredrik: What is the possibility of having a true dynasty again? One that wins 100+ games regularly and is odds on favorite to win World Series every year. How possible is this in baseballs current landscape i.e. Smarter front offices, no more ‘spend as you like’ on the draft, lots of money coming in for pretty much all teams.

Dave Cameron: It’s probably unlikely in the current era. The flood of TV money has lifted the bottom-tier franchises up much higher than the extra money has helped the top-tier franchises, so the gap between them is a lot smaller than it used to be.

The Dude of NY: In the short term, would the White Sox be better off signing Gordon, Upton or Cespedes?

Dave Cameron: Probably Gordon. Long-term, depends on costs.

The Boat: It’s been suggested that Chapman and similarly elite relievers are worth as much as a #2 starter. Do you buy it? Who is the best team in the AL East after that trade?

Dave Cameron: No, that’s silly.

The Dude of NY: I asked August this yesterday but I am curious on your take: are the Nationals a better team with Murphy or Phillips?

Dave Cameron: Murphy.

Zonk: Where does Dexter Fowler fit best? Giants?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that feels like a decent landing spot for him.

lloyd: What is the relationship between minor league ownership and major league ownership? I don’t understand what it means when a team purchases a contract of a minor leaguer. Thanks!

Dave Cameron: The “purchased a contract” terminology just means that the player is being placed on the 40 man roster. Some minor leaguers are already on the 40 man, so they are “recalled” when they are brought to the majors, but if a minor leaguer who isn’t on the 40 man is going to be called up, he has to be added to the 40 man (and placed into the MLBPA) first. It doesn’t have anything to do with ownership of major/minor league franchises.

R: I’m 24, don’t have any debt from school, and make a decent wage (with 10% going towards my 401K). Are there any other major things for me to do financially? Other than avoid dumb purchases?

Dave Cameron: Open a Roth IRA and max it out.

Joe: Trying to be a level-headed Reds fan.. Is the start of the rebuild really as bad as media/fans seem to make it ? I know circumstances with Chapman and Frazier’s second half.. but farm system seems to be top 5-10..

Dave Cameron: The farm system is very heavy on arms, which are pretty risky. Given how good the rest of the NL Central is, they can’t just count on getting 2-3 good pitchers out of their current crop and hope that brings them back to contending status. They need to develop some star-level position players.

Copp: Could you ever be BEST friends with someone who absolutely hated baseball?

Dave Cameron: Sure. Almost none of the people I hang out with in NC are baseball fans.

Erich: Top 3 dog toys for Liberty?

Dave Cameron: I got a two pack of bears with a squeaky toy for stomachs at Costco a few months ago. She’s a huge fan of them. Besides that, just random balls.

Andrew: How far will the prices drop for Upton / Yoenis? Any chance these guys sign for less than $100M?

Dave Cameron: No. If the price got down to $100M, there’d be plenty of teams on the sidelines who decided to make a value play.

Ryan: How much of his defensive “value” does Heyward lose moving to center field?

Dave Cameron: Probably not much.

Alan: Any thoughts on the Nats infield and where/when Trea Turner could make his way into the lineup?

Dave Cameron: Turner displaces Espinosa in June, probably.

WAR: Can you give some input some input on the cost of Wins? Why is 1 WAR worth about $7-$8 million? Seems way too high considering some team WARS were over 50.

Dave Cameron: There are 1,000 WAR per season to be allocated across the league. MLB spends about $3.5 billion per year on player salaries, so, easy division says there’s about $3.5 million per WAR in the game. But then, you have a ton of pre-arb and arbitration eligible players who are producing a lot of value and getting paid hardly anything. So, the money that teams aren’t paying to the Kris Bryants and Jose Fernandez’s of the world gets reallocated to free agents.

Compton: There’s been a bit of debate over the stars-and-scrubs model vs. the depth model of team building. But looking at the Cubs ZiPS, are they going for the elusive stars-and-depth model?

Dave Cameron: Why choose when you can have both, apparently.

Dale: The Reds basically gave Chapman away, why not hold onto him for the July deadline?

Dave Cameron: I talked about this a little bit on the podcast this morning, but the only rationale I can come up with is they know more about the domestic violence charge than the rest of the league, and think his value might go down further as more information comes out. If that’s not true, though, then I don’t see why they didn’t just hold onto him, let him serve whatever suspension is coming, then flip him mid-summer.

Dan: Given the choice, would you prefer J. Heyward at 3/78 or 8/184?

Dave Cameron: The latter, but they only got him at 8/$184M because they gave him the chance to make it 3/$78M.

Luke: How would you set up the qualifying offer system?

Dave Cameron: Assuming i couldn’t just get rid of it? I’d do something like a tiered system. Want a first round pick as compensation? You have to make a 3 year QO. 2nd round pick = 2 year QO. 3rd round pick = 1 year QO. No real reason Ian Kennedy and David Price should cost the same to sign.

Forsyth: According to Jeff Sullivan, the replacement level WAR is 47.7.

Dave Cameron: Jeff is right, actually. The 48.6 is what we used to use before we unified our replacement level with B-R. That number was stuck in my head. But it’s .300, or 47.7 per 162 games. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/unifying-replacement-level/

Andrew: When you say price adjustments, how big of a fall do you think it might be for Upton or Cespedes?

Dave Cameron: I could see them signing for $120M.

Bork: “What could happen to the Cubs?” See: Washington Nationals

Dave Cameron: Yeah, no team is immune to injuries or underperformance. The Cubs aren’t a lock to make the playoffs. They’re just the best bet of anyone in baseball.

Zonk: Local Cubs beat writer says Cubs are trying to acquire Andrew Miller. While that would be awesome for the Cubs, I shudder to think what the cost would be. Is there a trade to be made there? I have a hard time seeing how they match up.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t see a great fit there either. Have to think Yanks would want someone like Hendricks, and Cubs shouldn’t do that.

Erich: Going off your answer about Chapman and the amount of high leverage innings, is leverage baked into WAR calculations?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

The Gyorko Store Called: Is the market for local broadcast rights still going up? If its contract was up now, how much would a big market team like the Cubs get? Or a small market team like the Royals?

Dave Cameron: We don’t really know. There hasn’t been that many new TV deals struck lately, and with ESPN’s ratings crashing and dragging down Disney’s stock, it will be interesting to see if other networks get a bit gunshy about betting big on live sports getting them significant payouts from cable operators.

Javier Baez: Where do I fit in on the new look Cubs? I’ve been playing CF this winter, but are they really considering me there or are they going to trade me away?

Dave Cameron: Probably trade bait.

Ray: Are Dodgers fans and some national writers over-reacting to the Dodgers not re-signing Zack Greinke and the improvements the Diamondbacks and Giants made to the rotation this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Yes.

Skore: Do you see Cespedes as a riskier buy than Upton because of the plate discipline? Or the opposite due to defense?

Dave Cameron: Riskier due to age.

Joe: What are the reds doing? They have essentially given up Frazier and Chapman for nothing. This has been a disaster start to their rebuild.

Dave Cameron: Peraza and Davis aren’t nothing. But they’re clearly choosing proximity to the majors over upside, which is a questionable choice.

The Dude of NY: In 2015, Jose Bautista’s BABIP was *lower* than his AVG. How is that possible?

Dave Cameron: HRs aren’t counted in BABIP.

Dave Cameron: And the two stats have different denominators. They’re not really measuring the same thing.

Sara: I am puzzled by what the Dodgers are doing this year (off season) do you feel that they are going in the right direction?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, they’re fine. They’ll probably get Maeda, make a few trades, and head into the season as an easy favorite in the NL West.

The Gyorko Store Called: Should Justin Masterson be a full-time reliever? He seems to fit the profile that would play up in the pen.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, at this point, it’s probably the logical spot for him.

Shooty Babbitt: What’s your take on Joey Gallo? Are the Ks too high for him to be a force in MLB? Will he be a bust? Or Russell Branyan?

Dave Cameron: Upside is Chris Davis, downside is Branyan, reality is probably in between.

Matt purke : What are the other main inputs into pitcher WAR besides FIP?

Dave Cameron: Innings, park effects, league effects, leverage, infield flies generated.

Joe: Run Prevention: roughly 50% rotation, 25% pen, 25% defense?

Dave Cameron: 60/25/15, maybe.

PP Jutz: When players like Heyward and Trout take less money to take team friendly deals, do they influence the rest of the market downward? If so, is taking less money generally frowned upon by the players association?

Dave Cameron: Heyward didn’t take a team friendly deal; he took less guaranteed money to get an earlier opt-out. Trout’s deal was a little different, and I’m sure the union wasn’t thrilled with it.

Johnny5Alive: since the mets FO is apparently only wanting guys on really short deals (rumored offered Cespedes a 2 or 3 year deal), why not just do the opt-out route. High AAV for 2 or 3 years, and hope the player opts out?

Dave Cameron: Because a long-term deal with an opt-out is still a long-term deal.

Mike_C: Does the MLB get too many years of Control over young players? Would we see more positive or negative effects from allowing players to declare for free agency after 5 years of service?

Dave Cameron: I think there’s an argument to be made that the union should fight pretty hard to lower the service time required for pitchers to reach free agency. So many of them break down before they get to the open market, and the system is skewed against them pretty heavily. But the league isn’t going to want to give up the pre-arb/arb system, especially because it’s one of the primary ways that lower revenue teams can compete, and the league has worked for 20 years to get to this kind of parity.

Paul: Does Matt Kemp have positive trade value after a decent (and healthy) 2015? This would seem to be the time to move off of him if possible.

Dave Cameron: You’re referring to the Matt Kemp who had a 109 wRC+ and +0.4 WAR? He had a bad year, and it’s still one of the very worst contracts in baseball.

Mike: lots of snow finally on the East coast….do you have any ski plans this winter?

Dave Cameron: Probably not this year, unfortunately. Babies are a lot of work.

Caveman Jones: Are you saying leverage is a part of pitcher FIP for both relievers and starters?

Dave Cameron: Leverage is a part of a pitcher’s WAR. For starters, it ends up not mattering, as basically everyone has a leverage around 1.0, but it matters for relievers.

The Dude of NY: Do you think the Reds were at least partially motivated to trade Chapman due to his ~13 mil projected arbitration cost (minus days lost to suspension)?

Dave Cameron: Could be. If so, that’s not a great reason to make a meh trade, though; better off paying the extra $4-$6M in salary and get a better prospect package in return.

Forsyth: Will the MLB consider service time and impact on free agent status when they’re handing down Chapman’s punishment? If so, will they err on still letting him hit FA next year?

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine they don’t want to have that fight with the MLBPA. I can’t see any scenario where they try to suspend him for 46+ games, which is what it would take.