Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 2/11/15
| 11:43 |
: It’s Wednesday, so let’s have some fun.
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| 11:43 |
: The queue is now open.
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| 12:01 |
LOL fun on a Wednesday! This guy! ^^^ |
| 12:02 |
: “More fun than you normally have on a Wednesday”
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| 12:02 |
Are sentences like “Before we move on to 2015, one more thought on the O’s-Rays conundrum. It might be tough to accept at face value that one club that finished 19 games behind another might actually have been a better club than the other” explicitly written in order to get Orioles fans riled up? |
| 12:03 |
: Nope. If the idea that single season team record is not a perfect model of a team’s true talent level offends you, perhaps you need to do more research on the variations in team record in a 162 game sample.
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| 12:03 |
For which teams can you not construct a reasonable playoff argument? |
| 12:03 |
: The only path to the playoffs for the Phillies is one in which the Nationals are contracted before opening day.
|
| 12:04 |
Which off season signing do you think will offer the most value compared to cost? |
| 12:04 |
: Writing about that tomorrow, in fact.
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| 12:04 |
What % chance is there of Cole Hamels’ trade value dropping between now and the deadline? |
| 12:04 |
: Whatever chance of injury any given 31 year old pitcher has, probably. ~30%, maybe?
|
| 12:05 |
Snow shoveling is not fun. Take it from me! |
| 12:05 |
: Winston-Salem hasn’t had snow all year. Also, it’s really cheap to live here. Just saying.
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| 12:05 |
How concerned should we be with Victor Martinez right now? |
| 12:06 |
: An aging former catcher who just blew his knee out a couple of years ago is having knee surgery: what could possibly go wrong? Seriously, this seems like the kind of thing that can linger.
|
| 12:06 |
Baseball Prospectus projects the Padres to go 88-77 as of Feb 9th. If they land Cole Hamels, do you think they could make a viable run at the division or are the Dodgers to far ahead for it to really matter? |
| 12:07 |
: No they don’t. http://www.baseballprospect…
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| 12:07 |
: Pretty much every projection system has the Padres as .500ish.
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| 12:07 |
: The Dodgers are >10 games better by almost every single model.
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| 12:07 |
If, by many peoples’ opinions, the Padres infield leaves much to be desired, what is one more trade/signing they could work to yet again improve their team? |
| 12:07 |
: Wil Myers for Jurickson Profar and stuff.
|
| 12:08 |
: Assuming Profar is healthy.
|
| 12:08 |
Just a quick comment from the pod, if LAD lands Moncada, those with agreements in place won’t be knocking on NYY’s door. They already can’t sign over $300k next two years even without Moncada. |
| 12:09 |
: Good point. But there is some team out there with money to spend next July 2 who would happily take the players the Dodgers have already committed to.
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| 12:09 |
From a player development standpoint, how awkward are PTBNL arrangements? For instance, do the Pirates have any say in how the Orioles use the PTBNL in the Snider deal until he actually changes hands, either as a term of the trade or professional courtesy? |
| 12:09 |
: If the player is predetermined, and is only a PTBNL for bending-the-rule reasons, then yes, the acquiring team has some say in where he’s assigned, what position he plays, etc…
|
| 12:10 |
: Sometimes, though, PTBNL’s really aren’t decided until later.
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| 12:10 |
Are you buying into the White Sox being contenders? I’m not. Nor am I buying into the BTTF2 prophecy of the Cubbies this year. ChiTown is a no-go for the playoffs. |
| 12:10 |
: I think the Cubs have a legit shot at the postseason this year. The White Sox, a bit less so.
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| 12:10 |
Why does fangraphs/steamer projections keep changing every day? Padres were projected for 79 wins before the Shields signing, then 80 the day after, then 81 the day after that, then back to 80 now 82? |
| 12:12 |
: Playing time on the depth charts have likely been updated, perhaps reflecting changes in expected roles for some of the pitchers previously projected as starters. Also, the projected standings page is based on running 10,000 simulations, but there can still be some small fluctuations in outcome in a sample that size, so some days, the winning percentage might move a few points just based on randomness.
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| 12:12 |
How do the Reds view Eugenio Suarez long term? ZiPS likes him more than Zack Cozart this year but there doesn’t seem to be any thought given by the team to anything but Cozart being the every day guy at SS. |
| 12:12 |
: My guess is they view him more as Phillips replacement for when the rebuild begins.
|
| 12:13 |
You used to play baseball, right? How far did you make it playing ball? How good were you? |
| 12:13 |
: I played through high school. I was good relative to my teammates, but my teammates were terrible.
|
| 12:13 |
Regarding your latest draft removal proposal: It seems like you’d be incentivizing bad teams to continue NOT investing in their product until they were ready to just go bananas and break the bank. I’m not sure that;s any better than the W-L record system. |
| 12:14 |
: People are vastly overstating the impact of a six to one tradeoff between MLB spending an increase in the player acquisition pool. Teams would not cut $40 million off their payroll in order to get an extra $7 million in domestic spending. It just wouldn’t happen.
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| 12:15 |
: And the fun part about tying the pools to the deviation from league average is that even if a couple of teams tried to do that, the system has diminishing returns built in, as they’d lower the average their difference is being calculated against.
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| 12:16 |
With numerous projection systems being released over the past few weeks is there a historical analysis that compares their accuracy year to year? I assume if there were any significant variances those factors would be included in the next year’s projection. |
| 12:16 |
: Yeah, there have been a ton of pieces studying how projection systems fare. Google “testing the projections” and “hardball times” and you’ll find a recent one. Conclusions are basically always that most of them are about the same.
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| 12:17 |
Expectations of the Padres at this point? Is this team a playoff contender? |
| 12:18 |
: I see a .500ish team with some upside if either Johnson/Morrow stay healthy and turn in a high quality season as their #5 starter. But it’s also a very easy team to match up with, and they’re going to have a very hard time in late-inning situations with their all-RH line-up, so I wouldn’t be surprised if they significantly underperformed in close games either.
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| 12:19 |
How are the total bonus pools for drafts and international FAs determined before being divided among the teams? Is it based on revenue sharing? |
| 12:19 |
: Prior season record. So this summer, teams like Boston and Philadelphia get a lot of money to spend while the A’s get almost nothing.
|
| 12:19 |
: And I just realized I read your question wrong.
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| 12:20 |
: MLB sets the pool limits each year. I believe the CBA has some information about how those calculations are done, but I don’t remember them off hand.
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| 12:20 |
Is it common for you to write most of an article, only to realize someone just posted an article on the exact same topic and forced to scrap it? |
| 12:21 |
: I’m not going to scrap something I wrote because someone on some other site published their own version of the same piece. And we generally communicate with our own writers about who is writing what, so internally, that doesn’t happen.
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| 12:21 |
Why don’t we see any teams accelerating payment on albatross contracts during noncompetitive years when their payroll is below the budget set by ownership? E.g., Braves and B.J. Upton–why not pay him $30 million this year and nothing in 2017? |
| 12:22 |
: Most owners prefer to run their businesses out of the cash flows of the business rather than writing checks out of their own accounts.
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| 12:22 |
you see any further player movement occurring once ST opens, like a Zimmerman deal or another A’s or Pads trade? Seems like the Pads really need to find a taker for Quentin. The Phils need to find a deal for Papelbon. The Cubs need to find a taker for Welington Castillo, etc. Seems a very incomplete winter despite all the activity, no? |
| 12:23 |
: Yeah, there will be some more moves. The Cubs will trade Travis Wood and Castillo. The Padres will trade Quentin and maybe Maybin. The Red Sox probably trade an OF.
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| 12:23 |
If the Reds decide to trade Chapman either at the deadline or offseason, what kind of package could they grab? A. Miller gave the Sox a pretty nice return for only 3 months, so I would expect something substantially better. |
| 12:23 |
: Especially because Chapman isn’t entering his FA year. Yeah, he’d command a real return.
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| 12:23 |
Top 3 off-seasons: ChiSox, Braves, Pads? Am I missing anyone? |
| 12:24 |
: I don’t think I’d have any of those teams in my top three.
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| 12:24 |
what are some beginning steps for creating your own projection system assuming one has a decent background in statistics? |
| 12:25 |
: The primary decision you have to make is what components you’re going to use. Pretty much all the main systems are going to weight older data basically the same, so if you want to not just recreate the wheel, you need to find something that isn’t factored into ZIPS or Steamer yet. Steamer actually made its name by incorporating pitcher velocity before anyone else, for instance.
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| 12:25 |
Is Mookie Betts the best example EVER of an ideal Fangraphs prospect? Seems like all the writers here are in full support of an extremely positive projection/career. I don’t recall that ever happening before, to this degree… even Trout? |
| 12:26 |
: I think it’s more a matter of relativity. We loved Trout, but everyone loved Trout, so we didn’t stand out. We just like Betts more than other prospect types, so our opinion stands out more.
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| 12:26 |
: And by “our opinion”, I should note that there’s been zero collective discussion about a uniform Mookie Betts opinion. Our writers get to have their own ideas. We just have a lot of people who agree on this one.
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| 12:26 |
If the Phillies come down slightly on their asking price, would Carlos Martinez and Peter Bourjos plus a low A prospect or two be enough for Cole Hamels? |
| 12:27 |
: I’m not a huge Martinez fan, but that’s probably in right range, yes.
|
| 12:27 |
Mike Rizzo cited WAR in an interview the other day. I thought he was an old school scout type? |
| 12:27 |
: He is, but he has smart people working for him, and he’s smart enough to listen to them.
|
| 12:27 |
Are you fine with the Jays going with the “try to hold it together with a bunch of nothing until Devon Travis is ready” strategy at second base? |
| 12:28 |
: Seems like there were better options this winter, but they passed on them all. At this point, not a lot of useful MIs left.
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| 12:28 |
Do you invest int he stock market? |
| 12:28 |
: I don’t buy individual stocks. I’m a low cost index fund guy.
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| 12:28 |
Seen lots of the demise of V-Mart talk. He’s a DH, don’t we think he’ll still hit? Even if it is 85% of last year’s career year. |
| 12:29 |
: Why should we expect a 37 year old to sustain 85% of his career year?
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| 12:29 |
Are the Diamondbacks a better team in 2015 from a talent perspective? |
| 12:29 |
: No. They’re a disaster.
|
| 12:29 |
What’s keeping Mookie Betts and all of his hype from doing what Xander Bogaerts and all his hype did last year? I like Mookie a lot, but this same thing happened with Xander last year. |
| 12:29 |
: Every player has a wide range of outcomes. I could ask you that same question about any player in the major leagues.
|
| 12:30 |
: You try to isolate the most likely, or the mean around which the most likely congegrate.
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| 12:30 |
Good reports on Profar so far. Do you like him or Addison Russell more? |
| 12:30 |
: Russell
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| 12:30 |
Why must contract incentives be only based on playing time or awards voting? Why can’t they be based on production |
| 12:31 |
: There’d be a bit of a moral hazard at play if players had to choose between swinging away to try and make another $50K or bunting like the manager asked.
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| 12:31 |
How much does Jason Heyward get in free agency next offseason? |
| 12:31 |
: I’ll guess 10/$200M, but that’s assuming he has a very good year.
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| 12:32 |
How long would the regular season need to be to show enough signal that we could reasonably state the team with the best record is the best, second best record is second best, and so on? |
| 12:32 |
: I’m picking a number out of a hat rather than basing this on a rigorous statistical test, but I’d say 500ish.
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| 12:32 |
Will we see a MLB team based in Havana in the next 50 years? |
| 12:32 |
: I’ll say yes.
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| 12:33 |
This is not a fantasy question – although it will seem like one. I’m trying to convince a friend that Carlos Carrasco will be a better pitcher for the Indians than Matt Harvey for the Mets. He believes that Harvey was ready to pitch even before his TJ, and because of that confidence + his lengthy rehab process he should be back to normal. I believe Carrasco has figured it out and will be a top 5 pitcher in the AL this year. I am going to bet him $50 on this. Am I nuts? |
| 12:34 |
: You’re nuts to think that you have enough information to make that a high percentage play, but if you have $50 to burn and it’s fun for you to bet with your friend, go for it.
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| 12:34 |
: Said another way: maybe you’re right, maybe you’re not, I’m not sure. But I’d bet it’s probably no more than 55/45 in either direction. So you’re putting $50 up on a coin flip, basically.
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| 12:34 |
Is valentine’s day a pointless holiday? |
| 12:35 |
: It has the most obvious and direct point possible: dramatically increase profits for florists, Hallmark, and restaurants. Those are just goals I don’t want to serve.
|
| 12:35 |
Do you think that most predictions about the reds are overly pessimistic? Basically everything that could go wrong wen wrong last year, if they just have a normal year shouldn’t they be a legit wild card contender? |
| 12:36 |
: Nope. They have a .500 team if things go their way, and a disaster if any of their key players get hurt.
|
| 12:36 |
Who do you envision being the Jays 5th starter between Estrada/Sanchez/Norris? Who would you personally go with? |
| 12:36 |
: Estrada.
|
| 12:36 |
Dave: I love your columns and fangraphs. But I play in an AL only league and I like to click on your park factors (especially the part of LH and RH power) for quick references on AL parks. But the Astros continue to be listed with the NL teams. Nitpicking probably, but it would be more convenient for AL only league players to have this corrected. Thanks. |
| 12:37 |
: I’ll mention it to the boss.
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| 12:37 |
Can you see Cliff Lee being traded to Boston if he’s fully healthy in ST? How much less of a package would PHI accept as compared to Hamels? |
| 12:37 |
: Yeah, I wouldn’t be surprised at all if that’s the direct BOS went instead. Doubt it happens in ST, but if he’s healthy in July, I could see them just taking the contract and keeping their talent instead.
|
| 12:38 |
: Lee’s basically a salary dump. If the Phils won’t pay down any of his deal, they won’t get anything back.
|
| 12:38 |
Thoughts on Charles Barkley saying analytics “are crap” and “don’t work”? |
| 12:38 |
: Why would I care what Charles Barkley thinks?
|
| 12:39 |
Does Jeff deserve a vacation? |
| 12:39 |
: He’s taking a long one in March.
|
| 12:39 |
warthogs vs dash, who’s side are you on? |
| 12:39 |
: Dash is an incredibly dumb name.
|
| 12:39 |
: for the team, I mean. It’s an okay name for a kid, maybe.
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| 12:40 |
The bast player in the game right now who wasnt a top prospect has to be Cano right? Why were scouts so wrong about him? |
| 12:40 |
: Cano was a legit prospect.
|
| 12:40 |
: It’s probably someone like Corey Kluber.
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| 12:41 |
Wouldn’t it make more sense for the Padres to Move Kemp to 1B, Myers to RF, and platoon Maybin/Venable in CF? No drop in offense, and definite improvement in defense. |
| 12:41 |
: You think Maybin/Venable hit as well as Alonso? That seems dubious.
|
| 12:42 |
: But it might be the right move anyway.
|
| 12:42 |
Will Bryce Harper ever hit .300+ or play in 160 games? |
| 12:42 |
: Yes.
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| 12:43 |
What position did you play? |
| 12:43 |
: Catcher/3rd base.
|
| 12:43 |
When teams hire Tom Tango how do they pay him? Do they know his real name? Do you know his real name? |
| 12:43 |
: Yes, they know his real name. I don’t, but I know a bunch of people who do.
|
| 12:43 |
Do you ever see yourself as a sociologist who can do math? |
| 12:44 |
: I see myself primarily as a writer with an okay grasp on math-based concepts. Basically, I think I’m mostly a teacher who just got lucky that I teach in a non-school setting.
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| 12:45 |
w/r/t your draft removal idea: how do you feel about rolling over a portion of remaining pool each year, say 80%? It would allow teams spending a lot to still make runs at the top prospects once every 3-5 years, but still discourage everyone from going into boom-bust cycles of saving and spending. |
| 12:45 |
: It’s an interesting thought.
|
| 12:45 |
If “projection systems” are so relatively devoid of value (due to the wide variances in real results), then why is so much time spent discussing them not to mention, reliance on them…? |
| 12:45 |
: The premise of your entire question is wrong.
|
| 12:46 |
Any logical guesses as to why when watching old games on MLB.tv, they leave the “Commercial Break in Progress” gaps in between innings? |
| 12:47 |
: They negotiated the broadcast rights to the games with the networks, but not the advertising rights. They retain the rights to sell their own ads at some point in the future, and I’d expect they will eventually.
|
| 12:48 |
Do you see the Marlins as a true wildcard contenders? Or still a year or two away? |
| 12:48 |
: They’re on the fringes of WC contention. There are only four really good NL teams.
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| 12:49 |
Would the loser in the Brad Miller vs Chris Taylor shortstop competition be better served playing every day in AAA or by staying in the majors in a utility/backup role? I’d much rather have one of them on the bench than someone like Jesus Montero. |
| 12:49 |
: I’d imagine both will play and it will end up as a job share.
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| 12:49 |
Not sure I understood your answer re: accelerating payment on albatross contracts. Is the idea that in a noncompetitive year, the team’s ownership-imposed payroll cap will be lower because they’re not going to sell as many tickets and jerseys? |
| 12:50 |
: You’re essentially asking the owner to take a $15 million future liability and pay it off with cash today. Where is that cash coming from?
|
| 12:50 |
Dave, what did you think of dbacks offseason? |
| 12:50 |
: Probably the worst of any team’s this winter.
|
| 12:50 |
Your guess on where Moncada lands? |
| 12:50 |
: Dodgers.
|
| 12:51 |
Over/under: 500 Mookie Betts plate appearances |
| 12:51 |
: Over.
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| 12:51 |
Which of these players is most likely to get moved before the deadline, and who gets the biggest return: Papelbon, Hamels, Kimbrel, Chapman, Cueto |
| 12:51 |
: Papelbon is basically a lock to get traded, and probably before Opening Day.
|
| 12:51 |
: Biggest return would be Hamels if the Phils paid down some salary.
|
| 12:51 |
: If they won’t, maybe Chapman.
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| 12:52 |
There is mookie betts as the fg favorite position prospect. Who is his pitching prospect equivalent? |
| 12:53 |
: I think we’re just going to keep riding Corey Kluber.
|
| 12:53 |
If Mookie Betts fails, will Fangraphs shut down? Or at least for a couple days for a moment of silence/to avoid the hate. |
| 12:53 |
: The Betts talk is kind of fun, but in reality, no one at FG thinks success is a clear guarantee. It’s not like we’d be shocked if he ended up becoming a mediocre player.
|
| 12:54 |
: We deal in probabilities. We tend to think the likelihood of Betts becoming a good player are higher than other people do. That doesn’t mean we don’t know that there are negative outcomes in his range.
|
| 12:54 |
have you ever been to a restaurant where you cook meat yourself on a little grill in front of you |
| 12:54 |
: Yes. I call that “my deck”
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| 12:55 |
Do you agree with Mike Petriello about Porcello getting a substantial contract this offseason? What’s your best guess? And any chance the Red Sox lock him up? |
| 12:55 |
: Yeah, he’s going to get paid next winter. Doubt BOS is the team that pays him.
|
| 12:56 |
Saw the piece here on Jung-ho Kang today that pegged him as a potential 25-homer, .280 average, reasonable OBP guy. Are you buying in on him? |
| 12:56 |
: Dan Farnsworth knows more about swings than I do.
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| 12:57 |
Does the Commissioner have the authority to change the draft/international signing process by himself? Who else would HAVE to be involved? MLBPA might want some input but it doesn’t really directly affect them (more or less) right? |
| 12:57 |
: It has to be collectively bargained.
|
| 12:57 |
From Chef Jim’s question before, it looks like it would be about, oh, 20,000 games before talent beats chance as far as regular-season results. http://www.beyondtheboxscor… |
| 12:59 |
Cano was never ranked in the top 100 prospects by Baseball America or Baseball Prospectus |
| 1:00 |
: That often is just a function of when a player is called up. Guys who get promoted during their breakout season lose prospect status and don’t get a chance to make it to the next Top 100.
|
| 1:00 |
Kemp at first base? He pouted for a week about being moved from center to right. |
| 1:00 |
: Another reason not to trade for him.
|
| 1:01 |
I’m relatively new to fangraphs, but what is it that makes tom tango such a special guest? |
| 1:01 |
: He’s the guy who created a lot of the metrics we host on FG, and probably the most influential sabermetric guy since Bill James.
|
| 1:01 |
For now during commercial breaks mlbtv should show a grainy feed of the dugout steps |
| 1:02 |
: It used to be that operators would forget to kill the feed and you could hear the announcers mid-inning conversations. Especially fun when they killed the team/players thinking they were off the air.
|
| 1:03 |
Any idea why you seem to attract more questions who’s premise is “You are wrong and you should feel bad and are a waste of time” or do you just publish more of them for our amusement? |
| 1:03 |
: I’m very likely the most polarizing writer on the site. People like Jeff more than they like me.
|
| 1:03 |
Does your wife share your views on Valentine’s Day? Most men feel the same way you do, but women not so much! |
| 1:04 |
: We’re apparently spending Saturday night hanging out with her parents and her aunt and uncle, so if she wanted it to be a special night, she has a very weird way of showing it.
|
| 1:04 |
Four really good NL teams? Dodgers, Nationals Cards and Pirates? |
| 1:04 |
: Yep.
|
| 1:05 |
Why is there no love for Dee Gordon? He’s 26, provides premium speed. and is coming off a career year. |
| 1:05 |
: Because speed is the least valuable skill a baseball player can have.
|
| 1:05 |
: And he does nothing else.
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| 1:06 |
re: polarizing, doesn’t help that your response is rarely patient/empathetic; nothing wrong with taking that approach (one of my favorite professors taught this way) but it certainly elicits more hardline response |
| 1:07 |
: Yeah. I wouldn’t put patience among my strong suits.
|
| 1:07 |
: Okay, the kid is throwing a fit and the wife needs to eat lunch.
|
| 1:07 |
: Off to go hold a screaming baby.
|
| 1:07 |
: Thanks for hanging out, everyone
|
Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.
it’s not getting me a feed at all.
nice evading the question about the over reliance on projections systems…
What would you suggest relying on instead?
the eyes of fans…I’m just guessing since he things Fan Scouting is the best projection system
As long as that fan is himself. It’s hilarious how many people criticize projections and then follow it up with some dreck about what they’ve witnessed when they’ve seen someone play.
Point is that if a model says the Cubs say will win 80 games, but the margin of error is 10 games… then all you have is the model confidently saying they’ll win between 70 and 90 games. I have to question the value of a system whose outcome is that vague.
A relatively wide range of possible outcomes is kind of inherent to trying to predict the future.
In your example, sure, the system sees between 70 and 90 wins. But it sees 80 wins as more likely than 70 or 90. It’s an 80-win team on paper that could do better or worse, because you have to play the actual games.
I wonder if you’re asking for more from a projection system than is possible. And if you want to just scrap projections as a whole, OK, but what’s the alternative?
I’m just suggesting that there seems to be an over reliance on these models considering how wide the range of acceptable outcomes apparently is.
What is the alternative? idk, what’s wrong with people using their own projections? I mean, to me, the only real value is the assumed non-bias in these models. If we did crowd-sourcing and were forced to omit the forecast of the teams we each follow, I bet the results would be similar to some comp-generated models.
And the problem comes in whenever there is any particular objection to something within a comp-generated model. People tend to go apespit if you want to say you don’t agree with anything in a model, like it’s gospel.
Who it’s relying on these projection systems much less over-relying? I see a guide or a conversation piece, think everyone or most everyone realizes lots of things changed for lots of team during the yr and once season starts and real baseball begins, projections are old news and not considered by anyone without some weird anti sabr/stat/projection agenda
is that it? If I want to raise a point, I have to have “an agenda” ?
The range of outcomes follows a normal distribution, so the 10 win range youre talking about is essentially an arbitrary cutoff. Those projections are saying that among 10k simulations, the highest chance is that the team wins 80 games, the 2nd highest chance is either 81 or 79 wins, 3rd highest is 82 or 78, and so on. Calling it a 10 win range is just shorthand to cover some large majority of the probable outcomes, but there’s significantly higher probability the closer you get to the projection, and thus much more meaning in the number than you’re giving it credit for.
I’m not the one out there defending projection systems by saying how large the margin of errors is. The people who advocate for these comp-generated models are doing that. That is the point I’m making.
“Dave Cameron: I don’t buy individual stocks. I’m a low cost index fund guy.”
Man, this makes me like you even more. The objectivity and practicality=man crush. Haha. I’m a big vanguard passive index fund low expense ratio guy that maxes out on IRAs, etc.
Too many people think they can beat the market when like 60% of fund managere can’t do it!!
It’s even worse than that. Both The Signal and the Noise, and The Washington Post have analyzed the percentage of managers that beat the market, and it’s less than 10%. It’s a snake oil industry practically. Too many variables for someone to actually be good enough to ‘beat’ it.
Re: “… speed is the least valuable skill a baseball player can have.” I assume we’re talking about the famous Five Tools. How do they rank, from most to least important?
I would guess that, outside of pitching and maybe catching, arm is the least important tool, far behind speed. You can’t hold someone to rigid standards in a rapid-fire chat environment, but I do feel Dave was wrong to make that statement.
Solid arm is critical for third base and shortstop. It’s also pretty nifty for corner outfielders.
If I had to rank tools:
1, by a mile) Hit
2/3) Power/Glove
4) Arm
5) Speed
“I’ve seen Cano play a lot, and I’m not even sure he’d be a productive Triple-A player. Let’s start with his defense; it’s brutal. He has terrible footwork and simply lacks any kind of instincts around the bag. There’s no way you want him playing up the middle. He might have the raw speed to not be awful in left field, but that’s about as kind as I can be regarding his glovework. Offensively, he’s a fastball hitter. He sits dead red on every pitch and waits for a mistake. Any good breaking ball or offspeed pitch will have him out in front. He’s mostly a gap hitter, lacking the power to drive the ball consistently over the wall. To add insult to injury, he’s also a terrible baserunner.
In his prime, I think he could hit .280/.320/.400 while playing awful defense. Yipee.”
-David Cameron, February 20, 2005
And John Sickels, of minor league baseball had him as the 7th best prospect for the Yankees the same month and thought.
‘The Yankees have one guy who looks like a potential star in Eric Duncan. Hughes and Vechionacci have good scouting reports, but neither has played enough for us to get a true objective read on their talents. Either or both could move up to B+ this year. . .or drop down considerably.’
So, yeah, we can’t pretend it was only Dave who missed the mark at that time. Do you have anyone who, at that time, said he was gonna be a stud?
From today’s chat:
“Dave Cameron: Cano was a legit prospect.”
yes, and just because he himself didn’t think of him as a top prospect doesn’t mean others didn’t.
He said this, ‘I guess I should have nominated Cano in the most overrated prospect thread the other day. That he still gets talked up as some kind of top prospect (not pointing at John here, by the way) amazes me.’
But I get what you’re saying. HE didn’t think he was a top prospect so it’s odd he said Cano was a legit prospect today, even if others thought he was.
but honestly I don’t remember him ever being chatted up as a top notch prospect.
It’s also possible to be considered a legit prospect, as Dave said today, and still not be expected to be anything more than a starter in the majors.
I chatted but was not moderated this observation: Cano was drafted in ’01 and came up May 2005. That’s 3.5 seasons of minor league ball, and a call up not in July after a strong MiLB campaign but rather early in the season. Not exactly your quintessential 0-60 prospect.
These chats are fast, so can’t blame Dave for not remembering the nuances of 2001-05 exactly correct of the top of his head; but misremembering and snappy responses do not good bedfellows make.
This wasn’t so obvious. You dug this up from the darker recesses of the internet. A promotion may not be in order.
I wish I remember everything I said almost 10 years ago 🙂 Must be a great skill to expect everyone to be capable of doing. Heck, 10 years ago I might have thought something was true, and now, upon reflection and such, don’t believe it’s true any more.
In any event, a legit prospect doesn’t have to equal a superstar. Considering the high percentage of prospects that don’t pan out at all, I believe a ‘legit’ prospect is a guy who legitimately has a good chance to be a major leaguer for awhile, either as a starter or a regular utility guy.
basically, if the goal of some is to slam Cameron for not knowing Cano would become a superstar, then Cameron is part of a HUGE group of people who didn’t see it coming.
and they said the farm system was weak and had him as a B- prospect.
Corey Kluber was certainly more out-of-nowhere than Cano. It’s possible pitchers shouldn’t count, since their development isn’t always so much a process as a divination…
In position player land, Kyle Seager may have a case, since in that case Dave was with the crowd in seeing him as a nonprospect.
I’d like to see the CrazyPants “Wisdom of Crowds” model put to the test. Despite Malcom Gladwell’s claims to the contrary, I’d bet there’s a sizable systematic bias in the way we perceive the talent levels of teams, but I could be wrong. (Do we overrate superstars, undercount the lack of depth in some organizations, overvalue walks, HR’s, diving catches? Who knows.)
Fangraphs does test crowdsourced contracts, so could run probably run this experiment fairly well.
I haven’t read Gladwell, but I’ve heard this fellow speak:
http://www.amazon.com/The-Wisdom-Crowds-James-Surowiecki/dp/0385721706
The evidence is pretty convincing that ‘Wisdom of Crowds’ works. It works best, however, in a very large sample of people with very diverse backgrounds. It’s pretty unlikely that a few hundred Fangraphs readers can beat the projection systems, but thousands of people with a variety of baseball knowledge might actually do a decent job if such a thing were possible.
I’m curious about this exchange;
12:06
Comment From Maxamuz
Baseball Prospectus projects the Padres to go 88-77 as of Feb 9th. If they land Cole Hamels, do you think they could make a viable run at the division or are the Dodgers to far ahead for it to really matter?
12:07
Dave Cameron: No they don’t. http://www.baseballprospect…
12:07
Dave Cameron: Pretty much every projection system has the Padres as .500ish.
I followed the link Dave provided and saw a projection for SD at 85-77.
Maximus’ 88-77 was an obvious typo (165 games?). So why say that 85-77 wasn’t the projection and then direct us to that exact projection?
“So why say that 85-77 wasn’t the projection and then direct us to that exact projection?”
I’d say its because the commenter said “88 wins” and questions are answered at a rate of ~1.75/minute.
big difference between 85 wins and 88 wins…going home at the end of the season or wild card berth
Scouts (all of them) missed on Cano for two reasons primarily.
1) They underestimated the importance of age-relative-to-league. For instance, Cano hit .276 with 14 homers as a Sally League teenager splitting his time evenly between shortstop and the keystone. That is an extremely impressive achievement, and by itself warranted a top 30-50 placement. Then two years later in AA, the 21-year-old Cano batted .301/.356/.497 with just 40 K’s in over 300 plate appearances, an excellent feat of hitting for any prospect, much less a middle infielder. This, again, should’ve launched him onto everyone’s top 50, perhaps even top 20-25. (The following year he clobbered AAA for a month, and was promoted to the Bronx.)
2) They *excessively* downgraded Cano for what was perceived rightly or not as a poor work ethic. Interestingly, for a guy with a “bad attitude,” Cano certainly showed up to play every day: at 19 he played in all 135 possible games, at 20 he played in 136, and at 21 he took the field 135 times. So basically, for three straight years he didn’t miss a game. Foreshadowed his MLB dedication/durability, no?