Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/1/17

12:01
Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone. I’m off to Boston for the Sloan conference this weekend, so if you’ve got a ticket, come say hi at some point this weekend. The baseball panel features Mike Petriello, Harry Pavlidis, the guy behind the eBIS software MLB teams use, Brian Kenny, and myself, so it should be a lively discussion.

12:02
Erik: Is the Warthen slider real or myth? If it’s real, how? It’s not like he can copy the pitch, and it can’t be that he’s the only person to know how to throw a hard slider, right? Why isn’t everyone doing it?

12:03
Dave Cameron: Pitching coaches can emphasize different aspects of pitches or grips, and it seems pretty clear that Warthen encourages his pitchers to throw hard breaking stuff. Everyone else probably doesn’t agree that the emphasis is necessary, just as everyone didn’t agree with Dave Duncan about sinkers down or Leo Mazzone about fastballs away.

12:03
Dave Cameron: Just because one guy has success with one approach with one group of pitchers doesn’t mean that everyone should or will copy it.

12:03
The Average Sports Fan: Is Eric Hosmer good? What does his next contract look like?

12:05
Dave Cameron: I think it’s difficult to defend the idea that, to this point, Eric Hosmer has been a good MLB player. He just hasn’t hit well enough to be a good first baseman, and there isn’t enough evidence to support the idea that he’s made up for it with his glove.

That said, the Statcast numbers suggest that he could be a good hitter with a different launch angle, and scouts obviously love the swing, so that combination probably makes him more likely than most meh players to become a good player in the future. I don’t think it would be all that weird if he finally figured out how to stop hitting groundballs at some point and became the guy the Royals apparently think he is already.

12:06
Dave Cameron: If he signs an extension with the Royals this spring, he’s probably looking at 7/$120M or something. If he gets to FA, whether he gets more or less depends on what he does in 2017. I wouldn’t be interested at that price.

12:07
J: Will we see more velocity and Ks in the future? What’s the limit? Maybe hitters try to adapt by hitting more flies? Not sure what else they can do.

12:08
Dave Cameron: The march to higher velocity isn’t showing any signs of slowing down. Until someone can show definitively that throwing harder leads to a significant and predictable increase in injuries, people are going to want to throw harder. And there’s a pretty clear link between velocity and contact rate, so the strikeouts aren’t going anywhere unless MLB changes the strike zone or lowers the mound or something.

12:08
Ross: What 3 players that realistically could have a career year this year on the Mariners would give them the best chance of playoff baseball?

12:09
Dave Cameron: Haniger, Smyly, Seager. If they get monster All-Star type seasons from the first two, or Seager goes from good player to great player, that would go a long way.

12:09
Erik: KATOH hates strikeouts, but absolutely loves Dylan Cozens. I would think he’d be the kind of guy who is overhyped by prospect lists due to his loud tools, but who KATOH keeps us realistic about by reminding us that he strikes out too much. If KATOH can get over his strikeouts, why haven’t scouts? If scouts fear his strikeouts, why doesn’t KATOH?

12:10
Dave Cameron: I think it’s more true that KATOH hates strikeouts from guys who don’t hit for power. Strikeouts are okay if the contact quality is high enough, but when it’s suspicious about how well you’ll drive the ball and you don’t make a lot of contact, then it gets worried.

12:10
Dave Cameron: It is worth noting that KATOH is even the outlier on Cozens when it comes to algorithms, though. ZIPS and Steamer aren’t big fans.

12:11
Gord: Is the change in strike zone likely to take affect this season or is it too late? I’d imagine pitchers would want this ironed out before spring training.

12:11
Dave Cameron: It’s dead in the water. The MLBPA didn’t agree to the change.

12:11
CaptainPeanutbutter: There have been a few posts about projections vs. fans mostly in regard to younger players. Is there any chance we could get an article looking at fan projections vs. what actually happened? I’m curious to see if there is more of an over rating by fans or an under rating by projection systems.

12:11
Dave Cameron: We’ve looked at this before, and the FANS projections are way too optimistic. Every forecast is basically the best possible outcome.

12:12
Zonk: With Blanton off the board, it looks like the top FA remaining are Doug Fister, Pedro Alvarez, Pagan, and maybe Coco Crisp. How many of them do you think will sign a ML contract? Or are all now looking for NRI?

12:12
Dave Cameron: I bet Fister and Alvarez get big league deals once someone gets hurt.

12:12
Q-Ball: What is your take on Kyle Schwarber batting leadoff?

12:13
Dave Cameron: I don’t see the point. Zobrist is a perfect leadoff option, doesn’t need to be PH for against tough LHPs, and doesn’t waste Schwarber’s power by having him hit solo HRs.

12:14
Julio Pepper: If you’re the Cardinals shouldn’t you offer Alex Reyes something like 10/35 right now? The Cardinals get tremendous upside, and Reyes has probably never been more risk averse. In a vacuum seems to make sense for both sides.

12:14
Dave Cameron: No agent would let their guy sign that.

12:15
Zonk: How much should we care about the World Baseball Classic?

12:15
Dave Cameron: It’s a great event, and a lot of fun. It’s meaningful baseball in March. Why wouldn’t we care?

12:15
Dave Cameron: I think there are ways it could be improved, but I don’t understand people who want it to go away.

12:15
Erik: True or False: despite having a pretty good system, the Phillies lack the impact pieces at the top to give them any hope of competing before the 2018-19 free agency spending spree.

12:16
Dave Cameron: Any kind of definitive statement about a team not being able to win for the next few years is false.

12:16
Dave Cameron: The Padres are probably the farthest away from being contenders, and even there, you only need a few of these guys to turn out much better than expected and get lucky on a few buy-low guys before you have a .500 team and some hope.

12:17
J. Peterman: Is the Blanton an indication that even simpler contracts are headed toward more complicated deferrals and incentive tiers, or is team Rizzo just being silly?

12:17
Dave Cameron: It’s not Rizzo, it’s ownership.

12:17
Dave Cameron: The Nats will backload every deal they can until this MASN thing gets resolved.

12:17
O Dizzle: Which pitcher will perform the best this season: Tyler Glasnow, Rich Hill, or Tanner Roark.

12:17
Dave Cameron: Hill

12:18
Ben: Do 10/5 “trade veto” rights transfer to the acquiring team if the veteran player agrees to be traded? Does someone like Victor Martinez who doesn’t have a no-trade clause retain his 10/5 veto rights with the new team? Additionally, is it generally considered scummy to trade a player right before their 10/5 rights kick in, thus resetting them?

12:18
Dave Cameron: 10/5 is 10 years of service and 5 with the same consecutive team, so by definition, it goes away when you change teams.

12:19
Dave Cameron: And players don’t have a right to achieving 10/5 status, so there’s nothing really scummy about trading a guy before he has that protection.

12:20
Dave Cameron: A player can be miffed that he didn’t get it, but teams have no obligation to let them get there.

12:20
Zonk: What teams do you think have a contention window that is closing in 2017? KC for sure, who else?

12:20
Dave Cameron: The Blue Jays, maybe.

12:21
Dave Cameron: Depends on what happens with some of their older stars, but if Bautista/Martin/Tulo decline and they play .500 ball this year, hard to see this team continuing to push to keep aging group together for another run.

12:21
Dave Cameron: Could throw the Orioles in there too. If they don’t win this year, and can’t re-sign Machado, they basically have to trade him next winter.

12:21
Dave Cameron: And then you’re rebuilding.

12:22
Bubba: If Gsellman turns into Degrom 2.0, do other teams start trying to poach the Mets’ pitching coaching staff?

12:22
Dave Cameron: Do we think coaches are the ones making these guys throw harder?

12:23
Erik: If the White Sox are lucky enough to have hit on all four of Moncada, Kopech, Giolito, and Lopez, do they have a shot at contention in 2018?

12:23
Dave Cameron: Well, yeah. But you could say that about almost any team.

12:23
bl27: Logan Forsythe is probably the leadoff with LAD. A full time job or Chase Utley will play vs (almost all) RHP ?

12:24
Dave Cameron: Utley’s a bench guy this year.

12:24
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Regarding untapped markets, do you think that the MLB should invest more heavily in the lower income areas of the US? I know they have RBI, but couldn’t that program be even bigger? I can’t imagine how many young athletic kids could be stars in the MLB now that football is losing a bunch of youth.

12:25
Dave Cameron: RBI is widely considered a joke within the game. Yes, MLB needs to do more to promote the game for people who can’t afford to put their kids on travel teams.

12:26
v2micca: I’m a fan that actually worries about competitive balance and fangraphs recent article regarding the potential end of it concerns me. What could MLB actually do to address it?

12:28
Dave Cameron: I’m not as concerned about it, given the flattening payroll structure MLB has seen, and how there aren’t really any teams anymore who really can’t afford to keep their best players. But if things flip and we get back to a place where the Yankees and Dodgers are just winning every year, expanding the playoff pool is probably the magic bullet. It degrades the value of putting a great team together in the regular season, since it increases the luck required to win a World Series, so the incentives aren’t there to spend an extra $100 million to move your WS odds by a point or two.

12:28
Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Curious: how does it feel to be one of the smartest people in the office?

12:28
Dave Cameron: Well the other people in my “office” are a dog and a two year old, so not that impressive.

12:29
Matt: Was the “analytics revolution” in baseball a bit of a harbinger for how important analytics would be become universally? I feel like the field has really opened up in every industry over the past decade.

12:29
Dave Cameron: I think it was more of a symptom than a cause. Access to data and computing power have changed the world.

12:29
Robbie: Patrick Corbin pitched 85 very good innings in 2015 after coming back from Tommy John surgery, but then was abysmal last year as a starter. Who do you think he really is?

12:29
Dave Cameron: I think he needs to figure out how to get RHBs out.

12:30
Dave Cameron: If he can do that, he’s great.

12:30
Dave Cameron: If not, well, then he’s a back-end starter.

12:30
Eric: The Mets were supposedly considering a Conforto for JD Martinez swap. Would that have been the worst move of the offseason?

12:30
Dave Cameron: That rumor doesn’t pass the smell test.

12:30
Mike: Who do you think ends the season as the Nats closer?

12:30
Dave Cameron: Someone they trade for at the deadline.

12:31
v2micca: If Andrelton Simmons could produce a 115 wRC+ while maintaining his defensive ability, would he be an MVP candidate?

12:31
Dave Cameron: Easily.

12:31
J. Peterman: Let’s say David Wright shows that A) he can still hit for average and power, and B) he cannot be relied upon to stay healthy while fielding. Could DH-ing in the AL be in his future, or are he and the Mets stuck with each other? Hard to imagine him in another jersey.

12:31
Dave Cameron: If he can’t throw, I would guess the Mets would probably talk to him about pulling a Prince Fielder.

12:31
Chester: Isn’t asking Haniger to have a monster all-star like year asking a lot?

12:32
Dave Cameron: Not if you buy the swing changes he made last year and the idea that he’s a legit CF playing a corner. If he runs a 120 wRC+ with a +10 to +15 UZR in right or something, that’s a +5 WAR player. That’s Yoenis Cespedes, basically.

12:32
Chaco Chicken: Will MLB end their antiquated local tv blackout restrictions? Would that have a positive impact on younger demographics?

12:33
Dave Cameron: They aren’t MLB’s blackouts; they’re the TV networks. The sport’s financial boom has been held up by giving exclusive rights to a dying industry, so MLB is squeezing the last bit of blood out of a turnip before the cable industry dies and they pivot to direct over the top sales of their product themselves.

12:34
elephantine castle: Hi Dave, at what point do you think the Blue Jays given Osuna a trial as a starter? His scouting reports, and performance suggest decent secondaries, but with closer prices being what they are do you think he sticks there or is moved once Estrada/Happ are finished? Thanks

12:34
Dave Cameron: He’s a reliever now. I don’t think he ever moves back.

12:35
Phantastic: re: higher velocity. If velocity ticks up so much that, say, in 20 years 50% of pitchers are throwing 100+ and average velo is in the upper 90s, does MLB consider moving the mound further from home plate? other changes?

12:35
Dave Cameron: I’m guessing they would have to consider some real structural change to give hitters a better fighting chance, yes.

12:36
Jack: Re: Schwarber leading off– isn’t there merit to ensuring he gets a 4th/5th PA while allowing for an early-ish defensive replacement…

12:36
Dave Cameron: Sure. I hadn’t thought of that. If that’s really how Maddon handles it, then okay.

12:37
George: Do you think Rasiel Iglesias will become the full-time closer at some point this season?

12:37
Dave Cameron: Doesn’t sound like the Reds want a full time closer. They’re going to experiment with multi-inning RPs.

12:38
kevinthecomic: I take umbrage with your classification of the WBC as meaningful baseball. I get the sense that it is maybe meaningful only outside of the United States and that within the US of A, it is seen only as an opportunity for the best player from your favorite team to get injured. If the WBC was meaningful baseball, wouldn’t everyone remember who won the last one? Anyone?

12:39
Dave Cameron: I guarantee you that people in the D.R. remember who won the last one. I legitimately don’t understand how you can watch the games, see the passion the players and fans from other countires are exhibiting, and come to any conclusion besides that this matters to them a lot. It might not matter to you, but that doesn’t mean it doesn’t matter.

12:40
Philip Christy: With a great farm system and seemingly infinite money, why don’t the Dodgers win even more?

12:40
Dave Cameron: Four straight division titles isn’t enough for you?

12:40
Ben: Given that luxury tax is calculated based off an average, do you think we could ever see some sort of lifetime-like contract. For instance, take a guy like Pujols who will be in his early 40s by the time his contract ends. Could the Angels have added another 12 years at league minimum to save on luxury tax penalty?

12:41
Dave Cameron: I heard some suggestions that we might see longer deals this winter to get the AAVs down; someone joked that they were going to try and get their owner to offer Chase Utley a 10 year deal. But it would so obviously be luxury tax manipulation that the league would likely step in and yell at the owner.

12:42
Wes: Does David Wright’s peak make him a potential Hall of Famer or do counting stats keep him out? My hope is that by the time he retires the population of voters will have shifted and advanced stats and a player’s peak will have more weight.

12:42
Dave Cameron: He’s at fewer than 7,000 PAs in his career and hasn’t reached +60 WAR. Even newer voters aren’t going to vote for him unless he gets healthy and puts together another run of greatness, which seems unlikely.

12:42
Seth Lugo: Why am I getting no respect as a #5 over Gsellman?

12:42
Dave Cameron: Well Gsellman’s better, so that might have something to do with it.

12:43
Erik: Could you explain the backloading thing a bit? How does it actually work? Do the Nats pay more or less in the long term? If it’s a good idea, should every team do it?

12:44
Dave Cameron: Backloading is just putting the bulk of a contract into the last years of the deal; the Royals do this all the time. Deferrals are what the Nationals do, moving payments to after the contract actually ends. It lowers the NPV of the contract for the player, so the Nationals $150M offer isn’t the same as another team’s $150M offer, which is why they’ve had trouble landing free agents that have strong markets.

12:45
Turd Ferguson: Do you think Albert will get to 100 career WAR (91.2 currently)? Would be a special milestone, and he is signed through 2021

12:45
Dave Cameron: He’s a ~1 WAR player at this point, so I’d bet against it.

12:46
Meldivar: What do you think of the Reds experiment of using their relievers in multiple high leverage innings situations this year? Does it stick?

12:46
Dave Cameron: Worth trying in a throwaway year. I don’t know that it will work to just up reliever usage without a significant change in the structure of how pitching staffs are used overall, but it’s a start.

12:47
Kristen: Could throw the Rangers’ in there as a team whose window will close after ’17. Darvish and Lucroy will most likely not re-sign, and there’s a distinct lack of high-ceiling impact talent at AAA/AA to replenish an aging team.

12:47
Dave Cameron: Yeah, true.

12:47
Guest: Should MLB consider creating a minor league in the Dominican Republic or Puerto Rico for example? Instead of sending a 17 year old Latin American player to Wisconsin, how about we reverse it and immerse young American players in other cultures? You might be able to live comfortably on a minor league salary in these areas too among publicity/economic benefits.

12:48
Dave Cameron: They already have that; the Dominican Summer League is where guys who aren’t ready for full-season US assignments play.

12:48
Dave Cameron: But I don’t think there’s a lot of push for teams to send their American kids there.

12:49
Srb1n: If a player retires early, is the green responsible for the remainder of his salary

12:49
Dave Cameron: If they retire, the salary goes away. In injury cases like Fielder’s, where insurance is a factor, they don’t retire; they just stop playing.

12:49
Dave Cameron: And then the insurance company covers the insured part of the contract.

12:50
Sean: If you could be a major leaguer at any position today what would you choose to be

12:51
Dave Cameron: Do I have my current physical skills? Because then I’d like to play backup SS behind Andrelton Simmons.

12:51
Torrey: Why does Detroit seem hesitant to pay J.D. Martinez?

12:51
Dave Cameron: I think they’re planning a teardown once their old guys decline.

12:51
saditude: If this period in hindsight turns out to be the beginnings of a revolution in swing mechanics – i.e. building a swing to get loft on the ball – who was the first adopter we should be praising as ahead of their time?

12:51
Dave Cameron: Ted Williams.

12:52
Brendon: Even though the NPV to a backloaded deal is beneficial to the team in current dollars, teams still operate on year to year budgets. Even if they increase their budget some every year, aren’t they just filling up future budgets with an attempt to win now?

12:52
Dave Cameron: Yeah, deferring money is just borrowing from yourself, essentially.

12:52
Dave Cameron: But there’s a pretty decent chance the Lerners aren’t planning on owning the team by the time the Scherzer deferred payments come due.

12:53
TF Fredrik: The fluidness of skills/attributes that you wrote about with gselllman is fascinating to me in baseball. I feel like you have more out of no where players than any other sport. Or just players that take a looong time to develop.

12:53
Dave Cameron: I think it’s true, but can’t prove, that it’s easier to go from meh to great in MLB than in other sports.

12:54
Meldivar: What would it take for Bellinger to break into the Dodgers lineup this year?

12:54
Dave Cameron: Adrian Gonzalez to get hurt.

12:54
Erik: How close is Cole Hamels to the Hall of Fame? 44 WAR and just 33 years old, with proven durability throughout his career. But he never even had a 5-WAR season. What is your ballpark estimate of his chances? 5%?

12:54
Dave Cameron: The standards for starting pitchers will have to change. He’s nowhere near Mussina, who can’t get inducted.

12:55
Jake: Won’t that hurt them when they try to sell the team? When prospective buyers see how many payments are due to players who aren’t even on the team

12:56
Dave Cameron: Yeah, in general, debt on the books lowers the value of the asset. But they can hope that there are so few MLB teams available for sale that the prospective buyers won’t care about that and will be buying into a market where the Nationals might be the only sellers.

12:58
Brendon: I guess deferred contracts could be seen as a way to maximize potential during contention windows if you don’t think you can contend every year. I.e. pay “big” dollars for high priced players and backload the contract so that you are paying for them during rebuilding years. This would be one way to make it so that you can get more WAR/$$ in the current year by increasing your payroll during rebuilding years when you would have a low payroll anyway.

12:59
Dave Cameron: To some degree, yes. For owners who have cash flow issues (or don’t want to spend out of non-team revenues), then yeah, they’re borrowing from future payrolls to finance today’s payrolls. But deferrals don’t do anything to luxury tax calculations, so there’s a limit to the benefit, since if you push it too far, you’ll end up paying an exorbitant tax on the overage.

12:59
CaptainPeanutbutter: Do you have any thoughts on the Brendan Rodgers topic (KATOH v. prospect rankings)?

1:00
Dave Cameron: I think Rodgers is a perfect example of why KATOH is useful. It can be very easy to fall into the trap of sticking with a player’s evaluation from before the draft until forced to do otherwise. Rodgers simply hasn’t performed like a legitimate elite prospect yet. That doesn’t mean he definitely isn’t one, but there are real reasons for concern, and those don’t seem to be showing up in the consensus rankings right now.

1:01
Rob Manfred: We need to speed up pace of play for the current generation, let’s save seconds by getting rid of the IBB. That way more people will see our 3 minutes of commercials between pitching changes at 11:48 PM EST on a Tues. night. That will help grow the audience of baseball.

1:01
Dave Cameron: “How can I complain about not being able to watch this thing I’ve never wanted to watch, that adds nothing to anyone’s enjoyment, and serves no purpose?”

1:04
DD: I saw a report that MLB is allowing streaming for some local markets I’m excited about it http://awfulannouncing.com/local-networks/rob-manfred-says-market-streaming-deals-close-three-mlb-teams.html

1:04
Dave Cameron: These in-market streaming deals just mean that you can’t watch MLB.tv in market if you have a cable subscription.

1:04
Dave Cameron: They don’t do anything for cord cutters.

1:04
CaptainPeanutbutter: I thought KATOH was harsh on him til I saw the park factors Rodgers plays in. For those who don’t have time to look them up for each minor league park, I think that addition makes them a super useful tool in looking at players.

1:05
Dave Cameron: I think it can be tough to visualize how insane some of these minor league environments are.

1:05
Dave Cameron: Because the spread in environments in MLB is so much more narrow.

1:05
Dave Cameron: But there are some ridiculous ballparks in the minors.

1:05
Philip Christy: The Dodgers haven’t broken 100 wins once.

1:06
Dave Cameron: Who cares? There are significant diminishing returns on every win over 95. Why do you care about margin of division title victory?

1:06
Dave Cameron: Alright, the wife just called and said she needs help with the two year old, so I’m off to be a dad for a little bit.

1:07
Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out everyone. If you’re at Sloan this weekend, come say hi.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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soddingjunkmailmember
7 years ago
Reply to  TommyLasordid
Owen Poindextermember
7 years ago
Reply to  TommyLasordid

Compromise: to signal the intentional walk, the pitcher must make a “gesture of submission” to the batter, which they would be encouraged to customize. It’s the somber version of the touchdown dance.