Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/22/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: We just published the SS positional power rankings, which wraps up the infield, and we’ll move to the outfield tomorrow.

Dave Cameron: I’ll take any PPR questions you have, or there’s a WBC championship game tonight, or we can just talk about the 2017 season.

Bork: If Devon Travis can stay healthy.

Dave Cameron: That would help the Jays an awful lot. But at this point, probably not something they should bet on.

Not Didi: What is the best solution to replace me for the next month? I think, I am about to show how valuable I am in April.

Dave Cameron: I know they’ve been mentioned in the Nick Ahmed talks, but I’d imagine they can grab someone who can hold the fort down on waivers if they wait a week or two.

Luke: I have been enamored with Adam Frazier for sometime and this Spring has made me almost irrational. Please talk me down, he just seems like a lighter hitting Matt Carpenter to me.

Dave Cameron: That’s probably getting a bit overly enthusiastic, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he took the 2B job at some point this summer.

Evil Goatee Dave: Do the Padres have the makings of a top five outfield down the road?

Dave Cameron: How long is this road?

The Tone: Given the Mets’ “predicament” of having more than 5 quality options for the starting rotation out of spring training do you think, assuming Gsellman is the 5th starter, it is both viable and a good idea to have Seth Lugo serve as a multi-inning reliever/piggyback starter for the first part of the season as opposed to just staying stretched out and burning innings in AAA waiting for someone to go down? He’s looked good in the WBC, and that fastball and super-spin curve should play up in shorter outings (which I think was borne out in his peripherals in relief last year).

Dave Cameron: I’d probably keep him stretched out to start, even if that means he hangs out in AAA for a bit. The odds of that staff staying healthy all year is basically 0%.

Evil Goatee Dave: Who wins the World Baseball Classic final tonight?

Dave Cameron: Probably the U.S. on some Eric Hosmer blooper that falls between a couple of guys, ensuring that we never stop hearing about how clutch he is.

Erik: Will Jorge Alfaro end up looking like 2016 Freddy Galvis? 20+ HRs and good defense at a premium position, but a sub-.300 OBP? How close to the 50th percentile outcome would that be for Alfaro?

Dave Cameron: Alfaro has a great arm, but that doesn’t make you a good defensive catcher.

Dave Cameron: I think long-term he’s an OF, and something like Jeff Francouer.

Rick Hahn: Do you like my Tim Anderson extension?

Dave Cameron: Deals like this are always good investments for the team. Even if Anderson busts, you’re out ~$20 million or whatever the extra cost is above what he would have been paid while busting, and $20 million over six years is nothing. It doesn’t change the budget at all. But if Anderson turns into a superstar, you just saved something like $10 to $20 million in his arb years and got options on his FA years for what will probably be something like 25% of his market value.

Dave Cameron: Risking $20M when it doesn’t really matter for the chance to save $50-$60M when it really might is a no-brainer.

Q-Ball: How awesome is this WBC? Mike Trout now says he’s doing the next one, is enthusiasm growing in the sport, A-Gon aside?

Dave Cameron: The WBC is great. This tournament being so good has definitely helped.

Erik: So the point of the WBC is to grow baseball around the world, not grow the WBC within the US, right? If the US wins, will that be counterproductive? Or will it lead to a better WBC next time around?

Dave Cameron: If the US won every time, it would be counterproductive.

Dave Cameron: But winning once every few years isn’t going to hurt.

Brady Anderson: Any thoughts on the Rosenthal article?

Dave Cameron: The stories that come out of people who have worked for the Orioles make none of that surprising. The organization is as dysfunctional as it gets.

Zonk: Is Javy Baez the most interesting player in baseball? He’s doing it again in the WBC, but oh that plate discipline…..

Dave Cameron: I don’t know if he’s the most interesting, but he’s definitely one of the most exciting.

Twitter Beef: Did you see Bill Simmons’s tweet to Jonah Keri yesterday (lamenting his use of the trade value format for MLB)? I heard he sent a similar tweet to you years ago. Thoughts?

Dave Cameron: #TeamJonah

Zonk: Is Kris Bryant the new face of baseball?

Dave Cameron: The thing about baseball is that the most popular player is often not the best player. Jeter and Ortiz are the best examples; good players, but not the best players. I could see maybe a Betts or Lindor filling a similar role.

Dave Cameron: Thought Lindor is less likely because he’s in Cleveland.

Trevor: A little love for the A’s bullpen? Madson-Doolitle-Axford-Casilla-Hendricks-Dull

Dave Cameron: That’s a good bullpen.

Dave Cameron: But there are a lot of good bullpens now.

DrunkPhil: What was walker buehler’s upside before TJ surgery? I am hearing right handed Kershaw comments from few writers….

Dave Cameron: Stop listening to those writers.

Tanner: Dave–who do you think opens the season as the Nats closer? And who ends the season as their closer?

Dave Cameron: Glover. Some guy they acquire in July.

Pete : Which team that isn’t being looked at as a big time WS favorite (Cubs, Dodgers, Indians, Bosox), has the best chance to win the WS if everything breaks right? Astros? Mets?

Dave Cameron: Probably the Astros. They are on par with BOS/CLE, have an easier path to the postseason than BOS, and have enough depth to make a big in-season upgrade.

CamdenWarehouse: Which position is Carson previewing this year? I like them all, but his on RF was one of my favorite posts all last year.

Dave Cameron: DH, goes up on Friday.

Maverik312: Tim Anderson got PAID

Dave Cameron: Sure, I can see why he took this deal. His bust potential is super high, and now he’s got set for life money.

Dave Cameron: But this deal is better for CHW than for Anderson.

Byron: If Ohtani does come over to play in the states how would a team handle him? Would he just be a pitcher? Would an AL team DH him when he’s not pitching? Would an NL team play him in the field?

Dave Cameron: It will be really interesting to watch. My guess is he ends up with an NL team that agrees to pinch-hit him for their SP on days he isn’t pitching.

Dave Cameron: Don’t think anyone will want one of their best pitchers also making OF throws on their “off” days.

Matt H: Correa is showing his vacuuming skills for team PR at 3B. Would his value at 3B be greater than ss for the Astros?

Dave Cameron: I think you probably want to see Bregman play a full year before making that determination.

Dave Cameron: As Tony noted, there’s a lot of bad stuff in Bregman’s batted ball profile from last year, and if he ends up not hitting as expected, you don’t move your franchise player to 3rd to make room for a guy who might not be what you hoped.

J: Who cracks the Dodgers rotation? Should they send Urias down?

Dave Cameron: They’ve said he starts the year in extended spring to get built up.

Dave Cameron: So it’s Kershaw-Hill-Maeda-Wood-McCarthy, probably.

Stevil: Does Boston have enough starter depth to sit tight, or should they be in a bit of panic-mode?

Dave Cameron: They’ll be fine. Your April rotation isn’t as important as your October rotation.

Houzer : If the Tigers start to falter, and Price goes down with injury .. is it plausible to see the Tigers ship Verlander to Boston for Swihart +a top 5 prospect? Or perhaps Benintendi?

Dave Cameron: The Red Sox wouldn’t sign anyone better than Mitch Moreland because they don’t want to pay the luxury tax. They’re not taking Verlander’s deal.

BrotherMan: RE: Brady Anderson I tend to side with Wieters. The clubhouse is for the players, FO = GTFO. What’s your opinion on this and Anderson’s urge to wear a uniform?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I tend to side with the players here. There is a necessary divide between uniforms and suits. Anderson is a suit dressing in a uniform for unknown reasons.

Tom: How is Nelson Cruz doing this? I thought late 30’s peak performances were a result of steroids?

Dave Cameron: There’s a theory in baseball that PED effects might last well after PED usage ends. You could, theoretically, use PEDs to get big and strong, and then stay big and strong without them.

Dave Cameron: That would require a lot of hard work, of course, but that’s one theory.

Matt: When players move up or down the defensive spectrum, obviously their UZR and DRS are likely to change. But shouldn’t our expectations be that the gain or loss is approximately equal to the positional adjustment that is build into the WAR calculations? Put another way, why do we expect players to gain or lose value by moving to different positions?

Dave Cameron: For guys around the average, you’re essentially right. For guys on the extremes, though, specific positions match their skills better than others. If you moved Buster Posey to 1B, he’d lose a lot more value than the positional adjustment makes up, because he’s so good behind the plate. If you moved Miggy to SS, he’d be way less valuable than at 1B, because the increase in defensive chances would more than dwarf the positional adjustment.

Tom: The WBC will be great until an All Star gets significantly hurt and trashes a teams regular season

Dave Cameron: Yeah, because that never happens in spring training.

Raindog: We’ve reached the part of spring where plenty of teams have injuries in their rotation. How come no one has signed Fister? Does he have unreasonable demands, or does the league really think he’s done?

Dave Cameron: Teams are probably more comfortable just taking a chance on their internal guy who is already built up and ready to go than spending a few million and hoping he can get ready quickly.

Evil Goatee Dave: Would you say that you have any baseball skills that would rate higher than 20 on the traditional scale?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

CamdenWarehouse: Who was the old face of baseball?

Dave Cameron: Ortiz.

Horace: I thought Dombrowski was considered a shrewd deal-maker when Red Sox ownership tapped him for Pres of BOps. However, he seems to have willfully and even recklessly overpaid for almost all of his acquisitions over the last 15 months. Is this just my sadness at losing a number of favorite minor leaguers, or does he seem to have lost a step or two in his trades?

Dave Cameron: He’s always done this.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: How good would Kiermaier be in a corner?

Dave Cameron: Another example of a guy who would lose value from a position switch.

Dave Cameron: Having fewer balls hit to him = less chances to add value defensively.

Jose: If you were running a player development (i.e., amateur and minor league talent) machine, what’s the one thing you would do that most teams aren’t doing?

Dave Cameron: Rest my players way more.

Dave Cameron: Starting pitchers only travel on road trips if they’re scheduled to pitch in that city.

Brendon: Thoughts on Hosmer over Goldschmidt, Kinsler over Murphey, etc. What would your ideal WBC lineup look like?

Dave Cameron: There’s a reason Jim Leyland isn’t an MLB manager anymore.

Choo Choo: Why all the hate for Hosmer? I know he’s not AS good as some make him out to be, but he’s talked about as a horrible player these days. He’s still a solid major league that a lot of clubs would love to have.

Dave Cameron: No one says he’s horrible. He’s a +1 to +2 WAR player with some upside if he learns to stop hitting grounders.

Robin: Earlier this week, I was thinking about that old time silly boat that used to sit in LF at the Kingdome and I’ll admit, I sorta wished it reborn in some way at Safeco. What do you remember of that old time boat? Any nostalgic things you wish would come back to any stadium?

Dave Cameron: We named our blog after that silly boat.

Dave Cameron: (We being USS Mariner)

Samwise: I hear Porcello’s name a lot on the regression lists from pretty much all over. Do you think he is one of those guys peripherals/projections can’t add in his real life talent of keeping runs off the board and being efficient in addition to being on a good boston team?

Dave Cameron: Porcello has, for his career, allowed more runs than his peripherals would suggest.

Dave Cameron: There’s no real reason to think that he has magic run prevention skills now.

12 to 6: I love the enthusiam by the players and coaches in the WBC. Can this eventually bleed over into an everyday thing in the regular MLB season?

Dave Cameron: Probably not. The stakes are much higher than when one game is 0.6% of your season.

Erik: Will the apparently widespread fear of exceeding the luxury tax keep the Harper and Machado contracts from being as huge as some are predicting? Or will there be at least two teams (required for a bidding war) who have the ability and desire to meet their demands?

Dave Cameron: The Dodgers and Yankees aren’t going to be like “eh, we probably should start caring about the tax now.”

Hank: Everyone is all over Julio Urias, and for good reason. But, is there a chance that Yadier Alvarez is a best young pitcher the Dodgers have?

Dave Cameron: Anything can happen with pitchers, but there’s no reason to believe, right now, that Alvarez is more likely to become great than Urias.

80-grades: If a pitcher had an 80-grade offspeed pitch, what’s the worst his fastball could be if he were to be successful? And who is the closest to fitting that description in MLB? Ignore knuckleballers for the purposes of these questions.

Dave Cameron: Jamie Moyer made it work throwing ~82, and he didn’t have an 80 off-speed pitch.

Dave Cameron: So at least that, and maybe a little lower.

Dave Cameron: A knuckleball might be a better comparison.

Dave Cameron: That’s essentially an 80 grade “off speed” pitch and guys are good throwing 75-80 in between.

Dave Cameron: And yeah, I didn’t read the end of your question until now.

Raindog: If we had Pitch F/x for spring training, could we tell which guys have actually added a useful pitch, versus just talked about it?

Dave Cameron: There is pitchf/x in some ST parks.

Tim: Who is the best defenders that few people talk about?

Dave Cameron: Nick Ahmed.

Dave Cameron: Going to be traded cheap, but is legitimately a plus plus SS.

Dave Cameron: Because he can’t hit at all.

Paul: Re: resting players more, I totally agree. I came across something fascinating in an NBA column by Zach Lowe (http://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/18843801/zach-lowe-2017-luke-walton-all-stars-nba). “[Luc Richard Mbah a Moute] credits his strong play to his new sleep regimen. He vowed in the offseason to sleep at least 12 hours per night… ’12 is nice, but I want more. I can do 14 or 15 hours… he became obsessed during his season in Philly, where the team’s sports science staff inundated player with data about their bodies.”

Dave Cameron: Rest is the next big revolution coming to baseball.

CaptainPeanutbutter: I thought Goldschmidt was on the bench cuz the dbacks didn’t really want him to play. Is it really because Leyland thinks that Hosmer is the better option?

Dave Cameron: Why would any team want their best player to not get at-bats?

Dave Cameron: Arms are a different story, but no one wants their guys to go sit and watch for a few weeks.

mtsw: Factoring in Price’s injury, are the Red Sox now the most imperiled division favorite?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, for sure.

MLow: Which of the WBC rosters in the tournament could complete for a playoff spot in the MLB?

Dave Cameron: That D.R. team was really good.

Dooduh: Think the Rangers have the chips for Quintana… assuming Gallo, Profar ++ are pieces the ChiSox are interested in? Facing the potential loss of Darvish it seems like something Daniels ought to pursue, no?

Dave Cameron: Don’t think Profar has much trade value left at this point, and Gallo is not getting you Quintana

Gooff Jonkins: Which young Yankee is more likely to hit 30 homers this season: Gary Sanchez, Greg Bird or Aaron Judge?

Dave Cameron: Bird. Most likely to get the at-bats necessary to get to 30.

Maverik312: Wait, so what IS the reason Hosmer is starting over Goldie then?

Dave Cameron: Old school baseball people think he’s better than he is.

Reginald Denton III: You referenced Tony’s notes on Bregman — where can I find that?

Dave Cameron: http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-hitter-contact-quality-report-a-few-nl-non-qualifiers/

Dave Cameron: Be warned; it’s not good news if you like him.

python-r: Re: Bird – so you don’t foresee a lot of play time for Chris Carter?

Dave Cameron: Nope.

Dooduh: So which prospect do you think ultimately headlines a Quintana deal?

Dave Cameron: Well, impossible to predict without knowing where he’ll end up going. I still like the STL fit.

Gary: I’m a Braves fan terrified about dealing for Quintana and wiping out the system too early. Please calm me down. Even them being reportedly in it makes me nervous.

Dave Cameron: I don’t see them making a big move like that yet.

E: even if you look at the traditional/box score stats i dont know how you come to the conclusion that Hosmer is better than Goldschmidt.

Dave Cameron: Only watch the postseason (KC in, AZ not), overvalue RBIs and contact.

Dave Cameron: Alright, going to end this a few minutes early, since American Airlines just stranded my wife in LAX by not holding the plane for her, and have to see if I can help her not spend the day at the airport.

Dave Cameron: Thanks for nothing, American!