Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/23/16

Dave Cameron: Alright, let’s do some chatting.

Dave Cameron: The Positional Power Rankings are underway, we’re 10 days from the start of the season, and we’re probably about to see some contract extensions announced in the next week.

Dave Cameron: So plenty to talk about.

BakedBean: Jeff and Paul laughed at my questions about Joe Kelly potentially putting it together this year and having a breakthrough. Will you do anything other than laugh at this notion? Is it really so absurd to think Joey might reach his potential?

Dave Cameron: It’s not absurd at all. The stuff is good, the peripherals are good. He won’t be an ace, but he could very well be a perfectly capable mid-rotation starter.

Biscuit: Any chance Tyler White ends up with 450 AB’s this year?

Dave Cameron: Sure, but things would have to go wrong. The scenario where he gets 450 PAs is probably the one where Reed doesn’t earn a promotion. Hard to see them running out rookies at both 1B and DH all year.

Guest: who has the worst record in mlb this year, braves or phillies?

Dave Cameron: The Phillies are the worse team.

Guest: arent the nationals and mets essentially a coin flip to win the east? i feel like people are handing the mets the division already

Dave Cameron: People overreact to the most recent year’s results. Yes, it’s close between them.

Dale Doback Jr: Thoughts on Conforto this year? 270/340/470 with 20ish HR’s sound about right? Was impressed with his plate discipline after making the jump from AA.

Dave Cameron: I’d take the under on that level of power. Not the HRs necessarily, but a .200 ISO would surprise me.

Jorge Posada: what’s your assessment of the marlins this year? playoff contender? medicore again?

Dave Cameron: Potential Wild Card contender. Will need Fernandez and Stanton to stay healthy and play at elite levels, but could happen.

Jon: Which method of team building do you think sets teams up better for sustained success? Developing pitchers & signing hitters (Mets) or signing pitchers and developing hitters (Cubs)?

Dave Cameron: I think you are definitely better off developing hitters.

Vegas: vegas has cubs at 93.5 wins. any value on over or under?

Dave Cameron: If forced to choose, I’d take the over, but I don’t think that’s far off.

Buster Posey’s Mustache: are the giants being underrated? very solid lineup, solid rotation, experience…. theyre neck and neck with LAD for the division right?

Dave Cameron: No, I think the Dodgers are a step ahead, though the gap is closing as every Dodgers player gets hurt.

O’s Fan: prediction for orioles record this year? seems like a team that will wind up in a good position to sell at the deadline but wont out of stubbornness

Dave Cameron: I’d guess mid-70s. Machado provides a bit of a floor but I could see a lot of other stuff going wrong.

Big hurt: What’re your thoughts short and long term about T Story’s production and how the rocks/the league will handle Reyes? Thanks

Dave Cameron: I think Story will be fine, maybe average-ish or a bit below. But I’d imagine he’ll hold the job all year, and Reyes won’t play for the Rockies again. My guess is that after his suspension — which I’d guess will be for half the season — they’ll cut him, eat the rest of the money he’s owed, and Reyes will essentially be forcibly retired by the league.

A Led Miss: Aledmys Diaz has a major league contract, but he hasn’t seen any major league service time yet, so he’ll be arbitration eligible relatively soon, but still under team control for 6-odd years from his major league debut? Which might be a motivation (were one needed) for him being sent to Memphis for at least April? Or am I wrong?

Dave Cameron: He won’t be eligible for arbitration for three years from when his clock starts, just like any other player. Having an MLB contract just means he has to remain on the 40 man roster, and they have to option him to the minors, but you don’t accrue any service time towards arbitration or free agency if you’re on the 40 man and in the minors.

Scott: How long do Locke and Vogelsong make up the bottom of the Pirates rotation? Any chance we see Nicasio get a nod to start the season?

Dave Cameron: At this point, hard to see them not giving him a shot. If he flops, easy to move him back to the pen.

Copp: If you were a betting man, would you bet that Aybar finishes the season with the Braves? If not, what teams could be likely destinations?

Dave Cameron: I’d be shocked if he finishes the year in ATL. I could see him playing second base for the Royals down the stretch.

The Average Sports Fan: You have been steadfast in your defense of the Dodgers. They sure look a lot more like a .500 team than anything else. What am I missing?

Dave Cameron: All of their good players, apparently.

John: Counsell said the closer role will be matchups based and then specifically brought up that Jeffress is a RHP and Smith is a LHP. That would probably mean Jeffress is the more often used closer, no?

Dave Cameron: Yep.

Just Wondering: Is David Peralta’s ceiling closer to that of Carlos Gonzalez or Andre Ethier?

Dave Cameron: Ethier.

iron wolf: Dave: enjoy your insights so I was hoping you could weigh in on a question posed on Camden Depot. If you could optimize the Orioles lineup, how would you do it? I said: Machado, Jones, Alvarez, Davis, Trumbo, Wieters, Schoop, Kim and Hardy. The author says having two RHBs followed by two LHBs to start the lineup won’t be employed by Showalter—he likes the righty-lefty sequence too much. Would it really matter to metrics guys like you if two RHBs were followed by two LHBs? Please share your thoughts.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think going L-R-L matters all that much, especially in this day and age of relievers with specified roles. But that said, I don’t think I’d hit Machado leadoff. I’d probably go something like Kim-Machado-Jones-Davis-Trumbo-Alvarez-Schoop-Wieters-Hardy

Springer am Rand: Why do mutual options exist? What’s the difference between Dexter Fowler’s 1 year/$8M + $9M mutual option with $5M buyout and a 1/$13M deal straight up? The only way the option gets picked up is if Fowler believes 1/$4M from the Cubs is the best he can do and the Cubs think 1/$4M for Fowler is in their interest, but if that’s the case, they could just sign that deal without the mutual option existing.

Dave Cameron: It’s a way for teams to defer costs to future years budgets.

JDX: Hey, Dave. Where is the best place to get historic arbitration rulings? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: I think MLBTR has an arbitration tracker that you could use.

Kirk: You recently said the Dodgers have been “insanely successful”. How successful would they have been if they had actually won the World Series since Reagan was president?

Dave Cameron: Some of us don’t judge success based on the results of luck-driven tournaments.

Erik: Would there be any negatives to the Phillies running a 6-man rotation this year? Protecting young arms and getting a look at more potential future pieces seem like good enough reasons to do it.

Dave Cameron: Some pitchers don’t like it, and think it messes with their routine. But it might be worth trying for a while anyway.

straight life: Dave: the Orioles call the Indians—who are looking for an OF—and offer Trumbo for Cody Anderson, who is having a tremendous spring and has flashed greatly increased velo on his FB. Who says no?

Dave Cameron: You mean the Mark Trumbo who wasn’t even able to be traded straight up for Steve Clevenger, with the Orioles demanding the Mariners add a piece to give up a replacement level catcher?

Dave Cameron: Trumbo has no trade value.

Dave Cameron: And he’s not an outfielder.

Sean: What do you think the ceiling is for true talent BABIP? The ideal player seems to fit the mold of great plate discipline and top-of-the-line contact skills. Cabrera is .348 for his career. Goldy .355, Votto .357. Is this it?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, .350 to .360 over a sustained period. I could see a guy earning something like a .380 or .390 in a given year, but anything north of that, they probably got some breaks.

Jacob: Bogaerts is one of the more interesting players for me to watch this year. Curious to see if he can display some of the power and patience he displayed in the minors. Where would you rank him in the loaded young shortstop crowd going forward?

Dave Cameron: In the tier behind Correa.

Otis: Also, recommendation for Toronto, don’t leave without visiting BarVolo

Dave Cameron: Appreciate the rec, but I’m pretty booked up for the whole trip. Doing the Pitch Talks thing on the 7th, our meetup at Firken on the 8th, and flying out the 9th. Open to breakfast recs, though!

Kendrick: Which narrative do you find more tiring: the supposed tanking issue, or the somehow widespread notion that the Dodgers are not very good and will end up wasting Kershaw’s prime due to their unwillingness to build a team that can consistently win in the present?

Dave Cameron: Both of them seem to be driven by people who just aren’t paying attention to the facts.

Jimmy Sak: Who wins the position: Tomas or Brito?

Dave Cameron: Starting to think Brito. There’s a pretty good chance that Yasmany Tomas just sucks.

dbet: Rob Manfred said on the radio today that umpires are reviewing every single called pitch after the game and are told if they are calling it correctly. Do you think this is one of the reasons that pitch framing value is diminishing?

Dave Cameron: That’s been happening for years. I do think umpires are probably getting a bit better about knowing which guys are likely to trick them, but that doesn’t make them immune to it. I think the baseline for types of catchers being used has gone up, so it’s harder to stand out from the pack now.

Art Vandelay: If you could start a team today with any player, would it still be Mike Trout?

Dave Cameron: Of course.

Tom Cruise: What do you think would be a reasonable extension for Edwin and Toronto?

Dave Cameron: I think I said I’d top out at 3/$55M or something in that range, which he wouldn’t take.

GoBlue: Is Javier Baez ever going to get regular PT? Will he do anything with it?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s likely trade bait this summer, and someone will give him a chance.

mtsw: Is it possible that with changes to Petco, AT&T will overtake it in the next few years as the most pitcher-friendly park in the majors?

Dave Cameron: It’s already close.

j6takish: If you had to pick against the projections, which teams projection doesn’t smell right? Who would you pick to implode and who would you pick to beat the projection by a wide margin?

Dave Cameron: I’d probably take the under on the Indians at 88 wins; their outfield stinks, and I’m not as high on their pitchers as ZIPS/Steamer.

Dave Cameron: I’d take the over on the Pirates at 82 wins. I’d put them in the mid-80s.

Rahul: With Ethier out, who gets the majority of the starts for the Dodgers?

Dave Cameron: Crawford, but Trayce Thompson could end up being a factor.

Topiary: Is Farrell really considering playing Travis Shaw over Sandoval? We all saw how well he hit last year but I find it hard to believe that the Red Sox are actually buying him as an everyday major leaguer. Is this just bluster to motivate Sandoval into trying harder?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t think they’re ready to cut bait on Pablo yet.

Erik: Why don’t we see more prospect for prospect trades? Surely there are some pairs of teams with corresponding surpluses, or corresponding blocked players, or teams wanting to trade high ceiling for high floor and vice versa?

Dave Cameron: Information asymmetry. You know more about your own guys than guys in another system, so both sides would be taking on risk.

Rahul: with the injuries that are piling up for the dodgers, who is the favorite for the NL West

Dave Cameron: Still the Dodgers.

Reginald Denton III: What are your thoughts on Scherzer this year? The projections really like him again.

Dave Cameron: Well he’s really good.

DoDI: Dave would you consider the Dodgers FO risk averse?

Dave Cameron: Not at all. I don’t think it’s possible to bet on as many health risks as they have and be considered a team that plays it safe.

Reginald Denton III: What are your feelings on Noah Syndergaard? Top __ pitcher for the next _ years.

Dave Cameron: 10, 5

Jeff: Do you buy the spin that Lincecum’s showcase keeps getting pushed back because “he’s a perfectionist”? If you’re a GM, are you still intrigued or seeing red flags?

Dave Cameron: At this point, I’d have to wonder whether he’s actually interested in pitching this year.

Bron: What are the big trades left this offseason?

Dave Cameron: Still think there’s a decent chance Jay Bruce is starting somewhere besides Cincy on opening day.

Sam: Who is 2016’s Carlos Correa?

Dave Cameron: J.P. Crawford.

Julio Urias : Do I get called up before September?

Dave Cameron: Given their current injury status and the number of pitchers who could be back in the second half, I’d say it makes more sense to use him as a first half option, then shut him down in August. So yes.

Brian: If you were the Padres, do you trade Norris or Hedges?

Dave Cameron: Norris.

JJB: What’s your take on the AL West this year? I’m not sold on any of those teams honestly.

Dave Cameron: Astros are the best team, and then everyone else is crowded up behind them.

Gary: Say Bryce Harper refuses to sign up for the draft. Is he not allowed to go straight to free agency afterwards?

Dave Cameron: The draft isn’t opt-in. You can’t refuse to be drafted.

Dave Cameron: You can refuse to sign, but that doesn’t make you a free agent.

Jaack: Park naming rights are generally in the $10-20 million range. If you were a Mike Trout or Bryce Harper, would you consider taking a $10 million discount if the stadium was named after you?

Dave Cameron: That would be a great way to become the most hated player in the game.

Jack: Could Andrew Miller keep the closer job the whole year? Imagine if Yanks are doing great and winning, do they pull Miller and insert Chapman just because he’s Chapman?

Dave Cameron: Chapman’s not going to pitch the 8th, and Miller will. So yes, they’ll just put Chapman in because he’s Chapman.

HotGraphs: Why is it specifically that you subscribe the ideology of grow bats buy pitching? Do you think that pitching prospects are more unpredictable or injury prone?

Dave Cameron: It’s indisputably clear that pitching prospects are more injury prone.

Guest: Could the Mariners have known something about Carson Smith’s release or throwing motion and saw a red flag for future injuries?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I don’t know that this should be a huge surprise. A slider-heavy RP who had seen velo fluctuations. The odds of him blowing out his arm was one of the reasons I didn’t hate that trade for the Mariners like a lot of Seattle fans did.

Topiary: All this talk of the pirates looking critically at optimal batting orders probably isn’t going tip the scales too much but if they win the world series will we see a bunch of front offices jump on the bandwagon?

Dave Cameron: This isn’t something the Pirates are on the cutting edge of, really. This is a multi-year trend that has been going on for a while.

JCNY: Should Mike Mussina be in the HOF?

Dave Cameron: Without question.

Andy Green: How many wins will my club put together this year? +/- 70?

Dave Cameron: Over, but not by a lot.

Davy: What would you think of a rule banning the shift (i.e. two infielders on either side of second base)? I know it’s been talked about at least a little bit.

Dave Cameron: It’s silliness.

BBK: With med/conditioning/info improvements, do you think we’ll see more players continuing to produce well into their 40’s?

Dave Cameron: Nope. The game is getting younger, not older.

Jack: What is AJ Reed’s ceiling comp?

Dave Cameron: Absolute best case scenario? Goldschmidt.

Justin: Are you higher on DeGrom or Gerrit Cole to make the next step to full-fledged Ace?

Dave Cameron: I think they’re already there, but I’ll take Cole long-term.

Mike: Pre-Mortem: It’s October and the Cubs missed the playoffs. What went wrong?

Dave Cameron: I actually am writing that piece for next week.

Urban: Can pitch framing be taught? If everyone is more aware of it, and can track it, then even catchers who weren’t great at it can improve.

Dave Cameron: Definitely. That’s one of the reasons teams won’t pay for it in free agency.

mtsw: Considering how much depth the Cubs have in the OF, should they consider sending Schwarber down and trying to make him into a real catcher? Seems insane when he’s one of the best hitters in the league but not as insane as how valuable he’d be as an average defensive catcher.

Dave Cameron: He’ll probably never be an average defensive catcher, and they have a kid coming who is going to be better anyway.

Johnny: What are your expectations of D Travis when he returns? Can we look at the small sample size from last yr and hope for the same?

Dave Cameron: He won’t be that good, but a healthy Travis is probably a +2 to +3 WAR player.

Forsyth: A lot has been made about the Red Sox needing a #2 SP. Do you agree, or do are you confident in their 2-5 SP’s?

Dave Cameron: Last year, everyone said they had to have an ace. Now that they have one, they have to have a #2. If they get one of those, everyone will just say they need a #3.

BBK: Under what circumstances would you commit murder?

Dave Cameron: If someone tried to kidnap my wife/kid/dog while screaming #6org, then I’d be okay ending them.

Brian: I recently stumbled onto an article where the idea of MLB level bonuses were handed out for records. I know this is fraught with issues, but how much fun would baseball be to see a player trying to break the all time HR record for an extra $20MM for that year or something like that? Again, I see issues with it, but would you enjoy watching that or is that mainly attractive to people outside of baseball?

Dave Cameron: A-Rod had those kinds of clauses in his contract. I don’t think fans really care much about players wealth.

Dave Cameron: Beyond being unhappy about it.

John: Who would trade for Bruce, and who would they have to offer?

Dave Cameron: Well the White Sox just got salary relief in the exact amount of Bruce’s 2016 contract.

Dave Cameron: And the Reds are apparently not asking for much in return if they can dump his contract, which is weird.

Joe: Will Matt Holliday be considered for the Hall of Fame?

Dave Cameron: Probably not. Very good career, but never the very best player in the game, and will get docked for starting his career in COL. If they won’t put Larry Walker in, then Holliday doesn’t have a great shot.

Ernie Camacho: Where do you think Zips/Steamer are going wrong with Indians starting pitchers? Health risk or performance?

Dave Cameron: A little bit of both. I think the Indians emphasis on controlling the strike zone leads to a bit more hard contact (and higher BABIP) than most.

Chase Utley: Fill in the blanks: I need to average __ WAR over the next __ years to get in to the hall of fame

Dave Cameron: More than I can reasonably get. He just won’t have the counting stats voters want.

Ol Sea Capn: What’s the over under for at bats for Aaron Hicks?

Dave Cameron: 400.

Forsyth: Does Andrew Benintendi pull a Schwarber/Conforto and impact the AL East race this year?

Dave Cameron: I’d guess 10% chance.

Robbie: Sounds like you’re a fan of Wilson Contreras, but do you really think he’ll be “better” than Schwarber?

Are you that sold on his jump from a .700 to .900 OPS last year?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think he’s going to hit at that level in the big leagues, but plus defense from a guy who can be a league average hitter will make him more valuable than Schwarber’s good bat/bad glove combo.

Frank: Well, didn’t the Sox kinda need both a #1 and a #2 last year in the end?

Dave Cameron: No, they needed Hanley and Pablo to not combine for -4 WAR.

mtsw: Which player are you most confident would’ve been a Hall of Famer if he hadn’t had bad luck with injuries?

Dave Cameron: Grady Sizemore, maybe?

Della: Is JP Crawford a bat first, def second or the other way round?

Dave Cameron: More of a very good at everything guy.

Kevin: I just moved to Winston-Salem. Why are the off-ramps so short? I find driving here somewhat terrifying.

Dave Cameron: Welcome, and congratulations on not dying on those ridiculous things so far. It’s the worst thing about the city. And they’re both on-ramps and off-ramps! Whoever designed those deserves a lifetime of watching Dice-K games.

mike: JP Crawford is better than Orlando Arcia? T/F?

Dave Cameron: True.

Dave Cameron: Alright, off to do some writing. Thanks for hanging out everyone. Make sure to check out the rest of the PPRs over the next week.

Dave Cameron: We’ll be back next Wednesday for our last pre-season chat of the year.