Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/29/17

Dave Cameron: Happy last Wednesday before baseball, everyone.

Dave Cameron: Let’s do our final preseason chat of the year.

Dave Cameron: And look forward to some real baseball on Sunday.

senorsilver: Anything to Thames struggles in the spring? Maybe one guy where spring is relevant?

Dave Cameron: I doubt it. He’s always had power, even before he went to the KBO, and there’s zero reason to think that faded over the winter.

Erik: In a division with two bad teams, like the NL East, how much do you think the players care about at least finishing higher than one team in the division? Obviously, players are hyper-competitive and want to win every game, but at the end of the season, will the Phillies or Braves be happy that they at least finished higher than the other team, even if it’s objectively worse for the team’s future since it means a worse draft pick?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they care.

Dave Cameron: I think for most of them, there isn’t a huge difference between non-postseason places in the standings.

Stevil: Hey Dave. The Dodgers appear to have a lefty-heavy pen with Wood in the fold. The Mariners can’t possibly be content with their internal options for a regular, second southpaw. Do you see a possible deal there?

Dave Cameron: Guessing the Mariners are more concerned about their rotation today, given that Drew Smyly might start on the DL now.

CarrotJuice: Could 1 team hypothetically “buy” a players contract from another team? As in could the Dodgers simply write a $200 mil check to the Rays to get Chris Archer without giving up any talent? If this was possible, would that $200 mil (or however much it cost) count towards the luxury tax?

Dave Cameron: MLB won’t allow that kind of cash-for-player deal, so teams get around it by taking dead weight contracts. This is what the Touki Toussaint trade was.

Sonny: How motivated would KC be to take advantage of the first mover bonus? How much more in a trade would a Herrera be worth June 1 rather than July 31st?

Dave Cameron: I think they’d have to be a total disaster the first two months to sell that early.

Dave Cameron: Their division isn’t good, and so even if they’re just sitting around .500, they’re likely to be fighting for second place.

Eddie Waitkus: Are we going to see a shift in resting players more often similar to NBA?

Dave Cameron: Yep. Not this year, but that’s coming.

Dave Cameron: I think we’re a few years away from the end of the 162-games-a-year player, and we’ll move more towards most guys playing closer to 140 than 160.

CarrotJuice: Am I crazy in that I *don’t* like the return the White Sox got for Eaton?

Dave Cameron: Well, it depends on why you don’t like it. If you’re down on Giolito and Lopez particularly, that’s fine, and perfectly reasonable. If you think they could have gotten more from another team, that’s probably not true.

Meowmix: Who do you see the Cubs targeting if the Almora/Jay CF platoon underwhelms?

Dave Cameron: Probably Heyward to CF, Zobrist or Bryant to RF so that Baez can play 2B.

Right Field vs SS: Which position has more superstars?

Dave Cameron: SS is just loaded right now.

David: How many years behind the teams is the public on player value analysis? Is the public further behind in certain specific areas like pitch framing e.g. than others?

Dave Cameron: Not that far. The primary differences between the teams and the public are related to health and personality/motivation stuff, but a lot of that plays more into projections than value. There are definitely some differences, but it’s not like there’s a team out there that has figured out that Trout is actually worth 13 WAR.

Dave Cameron: When it comes to turning results into runs and wins, there’s not that much room for disagreement. The bigger issues are about forecasting those results.

Houzer : Angel Pagan to the Tigers? What kind of contract does he get?

Dave Cameron: Probably nothing more than a few million at this point.

Dave Cameron: But they should really be acquiring outfielders.

Q-Ball: Jonah Keri released his trade value rankings, and had Mike Trout at #3, behind Seager and Bryant, due to years of control. Sound right to you? Are you going to do your take on this?

Dave Cameron: It will be interesting to gauge the industry again this summer, but last year, I couldn’t find anyone who would take Seager over Correa.

Dave Cameron: I do think Trout probably drops out of #1 this summer. He was close to falling out last year.

Ted: What is a reasonably optimistic scenario for the Yankees this year? I could see a WC run but I’m also a homer

Dave Cameron: A WC run isn’t even that optimistic. This is a pretty decent team that just needs a few underachievers (Pineda, specifically) to live up to their talent.

Richie: So with the Dodgers ‘Seal of Approval’, is it reasonable for us to project upward Ryu’s rate stats too?

Dave Cameron: Or they figure they’ll just get what they can from him before he breaks again and then have a spot for Urias when that happens.

Brian: The Jose Ramirez extension is great, but it made me think about a Lindor extension enough to make me realize it will probably not happen and he will be gone eventually. Should I just enjoy the ride for the next 5 years?

Dave Cameron: Unless he just doesn’t want to sign a long-term deal, they should be able to get him signed.

Dave Cameron: They have enough long-term control at bargain prices that they can afford to give him something closer to market price.

Oscar O’Bannon: I feel like this is a dated question and I should know the answer, but what’s the biggest reason pitchers don’t throw nearly as many innings as they used to?

Dave Cameron: Because pitchers are more effective in shorter outings. Having a fresh guy facing a hitter who hasn’t seen him is more likely to result in outs than a tiring starter.

Dave Cameron: The starter-pitch-the-whole-game idea was inefficient.

JRuby: Is there anything in particular you look for in the first week of a new season?

Dave Cameron: You just do your best to not overreact to anything. Bad teams can go 7-0. Good teams can go 0-7.

botchatheny: kolten wong said he’d rather be traded than be in a platoon. would you trust wong to be your starter?

Dave Cameron: Nothing wrong with Wong wanting to play, but the reality is that the Cardinals have a RH infielder who deserves to play and Wong hasn’t shown he can hit LHPs.

thepaleking: what eventually becomes of willie calhoun?

Dave Cameron: The bar for 2B defense is getting lowered enough that I wouldn’t be surprised if he stayed there and just ran a -10 UZR or whatever.

Dabo Dabo Sweeney: Does Freeman have a Miggy like trajectory to you? Very similar OBP, Miggy seems to have a bit more power, but otherwise they seem to be relatively in line. Would you rather have Miggy for 1 year at his age or Freeman for 1 year in his prime?

Dave Cameron: Freeman doesn’t make contact anything like Miggy.

Dave Cameron: He ran contact rates in the low 70s the last few years.

Dave Cameron: Freeman might have another year better than what Miggy will do this year, but they’re not similar hitters.

Sterling Mallory Chris Archer: Is FG doing a marathon opening day chat?

Dave Cameron: We sure are.

Xolo: Who do you think will be the Padres’ All-Star representative this season?

Dave Cameron: One of the relievers. Capps or Hand, probably.

mtsw: Should the MLBPA investigate facilitating insurance contracts for pre-arb players as an alternative to signing Jose Ramirez-like extensions? It seems like a huge loss for the players in general to have star players locked up to these team-friendly deals through their prime. Or is one of those things where a dollar not paid to Ramirez goes to some other veteran anyway so the union doesn’t care?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’ve suggested for a while now that if there was an established secondary provider of guaranteed income for young players, the competition would get teams to pay more for these extensions. The discounts are too steep. Even if the prices went up 10%, teams would still do these deals, because they’d still saving money versus going year to year.

Zonk: How does Rusney Castillo count (or not) toward the Red Sox luxury tax? If he doesn’t count, but is promoted, does he then count? If so, does that mean that Rusney is locked in a golden prison with his pile of money?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s basically it. A team not close to the luxury tax could take him if BOS was paying almost the whole contract if they wanted to put him in the bigs, but now that he’s 30, there’s a shortening window in which a team would be interested in a glove-first guy without a lot of upside.

Nate: Without specifics, is a package for Jose Quintana including a top 20 overall prospect, another top 75-100, and 1 or two lottery ticket guys a fair return to expect?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think you get a top 20 guy for Quintana.

PeterCee: If the MLB won’t allow cash-for-player deals, how are “player to be named later or cash considerations” categorized?

Dave Cameron: Well, yeah, you can do cash-for-player on a small scale, when it’s mostly just about giving a player a big league roster spot. But the league isn’t interested in having big name players sold for cash like they do in soccer.

Adge: I have the Arizona Diamondbacks as my sleeper NL Wild Card. Do i need a Doctor?

Dave Cameron: It’s not entirely crazy. A full healthy year from Pollock, a bounce back from Greinke and breakouts from Miller/Walker/Ray in the rotation, and they find a reliever or two out of nowhere…

jc: If the Blue Jays are not in the hunt at the end of July, do you see them moving Donaldson, Stroman or Tulo?

Dave Cameron: If they’re not in the hunt in July, it’s probably because Donaldson is hurt, Stroman didn’t pitch well, and Tulo looks old.

Dave Cameron: If they’re sellers, the pieces they’re more likely moving are Estrada, Liriano, Happ, etc…

Sonny: When a player is very publicly on the trading block how aware are all the FOs of each others offers?

Dave Cameron: Not that aware. Teams know who is available and could be had, but they don’t know that X is offering Y for Z.

Stevil: What do the Pirates do with Bell? Is he more likely to stick around, or become a chip for more pitching if they’re hangin’ around in July?

Dave Cameron: If he really can’t become a reasonable defensive first baseman, then he has no place in PIT, since their OF is full and will be for some time. So then it’s a trade.

Dave Cameron: And as a team that likes GB pitchers, having a DH at 1B is a problem.

thepaleking: favorite radiohead album?

Dave Cameron: I can’t name one radiohead song.

Dave Cameron: I’ve never seen an episode of The Simpsons.

Dave Cameron: I didn’t watch Breaking Bad.

Dave Cameron: I’m not your guy for pop culture.

Nolan: You mention SS is loaded. In any event, are any of these young superstars the equal of Trout (i.e. the face of baseball) in the next 5 years in your opinion? Seager? Lindor? Correa?

Dave Cameron: I think Correa probably has the best chance to become that guy. The defense would have to improve but I could see him having a +10 WAR season.

George: You had an interesting Shelby Miller article. The projections (even fan ones) are pessimistic. What would be your projection for him?

Dave Cameron: I think you have to ratchet the projections up a bit due to spring training velocity/strikeouts. Not sure he’s going to be a great pitcher, but I could see him as a +3 WAR guy, this time without needing the BABIP to get there.

botchatheny: have you had more or less than 5 twinkies in your life?

Dave Cameron: More, but I haven’t had one in 20 years.

Eric: Imagine a team that is projected to go 81-81 loses their first 10 games. Would you update their project final record to 76-86? Or would you expect that bad 10 game streak to be counteracted by a good 10 game streak later on?

Dave Cameron: The former. The latter is the gambler’s fallacy.

Zonk: OK, but back to Rusney….money you give to other clubs for your bad contracts COUNT against the luxury tax, does it not? So, Rusney is stuck. Also, if the Red Sox can avoid tax on Rusney via DFA, why does that not work for, say, Carl Crawford? Is it because Carl didn’t go to minors?

Dave Cameron: Ah, good point; you may be right that if the Red Sox paid for him to be on another team’s 40 man, that would count against their tax.

Dave Cameron: In which case he’s basically stuck, yes.

Jesse: Does Happ actually have more trade value than Moncada because he could be an above average 2nd baseman right now?

Dave Cameron: Cubs fans are the best.

Eric: Who is your favorite non-FG baseball writer?

Dave Cameron: Brisbee, probably.

JTT: How is it even possible to have never seen the simpsons? Not saying you need to be a megafan but I seriously cannot comprehend how you haven’t accidentally been exposed to an episode via a friend or by channel surfing or by a dentists waiting room over the past 30 years

Dave Cameron: I just generally don’t watch a lot of TV, and when I hang out with friends, it’s almost never to watch something together unless it’s a sporting event.

Eric: The Shelby Miller trade is the worst trade in the last X years — 5? 10? ever?

Dave Cameron: 10. If you go back a bit, before there were any real value calculations going on, you’ll see some insane decisions. If the Ken Griffey Jr trade was made today, the Reds would be destroyed for giving up a controllable All-Star CF and a bunch of other pieces of value for the right to pay market price to an aging player.

Babe Lincoln: What pitcher would have been worth the Shelby Miller trade (assuming same age/contract)?

Dave Cameron: Chris Sale.

Bunslow: 1) Odds that anyone trades for Mike Trout before his contract is up? 2) Odds that the Cubs do? 3) How would Almora/Jay flopping affect the answer to 2)?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think Trout gets traded unless he asks for one.

Dave Cameron: No one wants to be the guy who got rid of the best player of his generation.

davels: Not a pop-culture guy. Do you like outdoors? Have you ever gone fishing?

Dave Cameron: I do like the outdoors, but haven’t gotten into fishing. More of a hiking/skiing kind of guy.

Joseph : Watch your rangers projection? I think 90 wins, rotation is strong but lacks depth. Houston’s rotation doesn’t do it for me, counting on a bounce back for kuechel and health for McCullers, lineup may take a few weeks to click. Seattle’s pitching doesn’t compete with the rangers. What’s your take?

Dave Cameron: The Rangers rotation is bad.

Ben: The Shelby Miller trade was indefensible at the time to almost everyone. But under what circumstances would MLB actually be compelled to step in and block such a lopsided trade?

Dave Cameron: If there was evidence of collusion. Short of that, you have to let teams make their own decisions.

Brandon: Why wouldn’t Q return a top 20 prospect? By war he’s been a top 10 pitcher the past 3 years and he’s pitching in the AL in a very hitter friendly park. On top of that he’s on an incredibly team friendly/low risk deal. I’m not attacking your opinion, just curious why you have it.

Dave Cameron: He’s still viewed as a non-dominant guy who relies on command. The stuff isn’t ace-like, and teams view him as more of a good pitcher than a great one.

ROBOCOP: what type of impact, if any, do you see Bellinger having with the Dodgers this year? Spring stats never tell the whole story, but he did seem quite overmatched in most of his at bats

Dave Cameron: I’d imagine he comes up late-summer, and replaces either whoever is in LF or Gonzalez.

Wil Myers: Really? Carter Capps or Brad Hand? Are you high?

Dave Cameron: Oh, right, I forgot that Myers is better than Goldschmidt, Rizzo, Votto, and Freeman. Making the All-Star team as a 1B in the NL is super easy!

Erik: What makes people higher on Correa than Seager? Both are excellent, obviously, but their stat lines seem very similar, with Seager having played better defense.

Dave Cameron: Most people don’t think Seager is as good as his defensive numbers suggest, and think they were inflated by Dodgers Ps generating weak contact. When talking to industry folks last summer, a lot of them still saw him as a 3B in a few years, and with less long-term power than Correa.

Lane: Thoughts on the Sanchez-Boras comments? I feel Jays should have at the very least given Sanchez the 15ish thousand they cost him when sent to minors.

Dave Cameron: I don’t really care about Boras’ comments, but I do think teams that have these super rigid, almost-no-raise algorithms for their best young players are being penny wise and pound foolish.

Wes: With more and more people in baseball ops having a background in economics or coding or mathematics, do you think that the next wave of young hires by teams will be people into management with Kinesiology, bio mechanics, or orthopedics degrees? It seems like the next successful, inventive team will be the one that can best predict and avoid injuries.

Dave Cameron: That’s been happening for a while now.

CamdenWarehouse: Familia only got 15 games?

Dave Cameron: As Ken Rosenthal noted, suspension of 31 games or more would have delayed his free agency, which union absolutely would not stand for, and would trigger a huge fight. So it was never going to be more than 30.

Dave Cameron: Why it was half of Chapman’s suspension is something I don’t think we have enough public information to know.

Lane: So something like: “Give good will to the player” get easy PR and player morale points (in regards to Sanchez)

Dave Cameron: Say $25K makes him happy and this never becomes a story. $25K is, what, a fraction of the team’s marketing budget. How is this not having one of your best players publicly trashing you not counteracting at least some of the goodwill that teams pay way more than $25K for.

TERMINATOR: could the White Sox pry a guy like Bellinger from the Dodgers if they shipped out both Robertson AND Nate jones, and took back a pricey contract like Ethier?

Dave Cameron: Nah. The Dodgers aren’t going to be looking to move a potential franchise guy for relievers.

STiVo: When do final roster spots have to be determined?

Dave Cameron: This weekend.

C3P0: What are your thoughts on DeShields this year? Any good comps of players already on mlb rosters?

Dave Cameron: Weak bat corner OF with speed and probably plus defense? Ezequiel Carrera, maybe.

Bunslow: Re the extra $25K, the reason they have formulas in the first place is parity across all rookie contract players. If they give Sanchez an extra $25K, in defiance of their formula, then everyone else on their rookie contract will start complaining, resulting in way more net unhappiness amongst the lowest class. Crappy system all the way around.

Dave Cameron: If your backup SS who can’t hit complains that he’s not making the same as Aaron Sanchez, you tell him he can go ride the bus in Triple-A if he doesn’t like it.

Dave Cameron: I’m pretty sure even young guys know that some young guys are better than others.

Nick S: The Braves are predictably saying they intend to be better this year. Then they go out and build a 4 man bench that has Bonifacio as the 4th OFer behind 2 bad OFers in Markakis and Kemp. Is this just another year of lip service from the FO, or should we start to worry that they can’t properly evaluate players and how they contribute to winning MLB games?

Dave Cameron: I’d bet they’re planning on grabbing some OF on waivers or make a last minute trade.

Julio Pepper: Well giving Sanchez more money gives them less grounds for not giving all pre-arb players raises right?

Dave Cameron: Just the good ones. You just change the formula to include some kind of “All-Star bonus” or something.

CubFan: Which injured/rehabbed pitcher do you see having a better season….Price (likely has a UCL tear), Ross, Richards (rehabbed his UCL vs surgery), Smyly (reported today he’s dealing with an arm issue)?

Dave Cameron: Price. If he had a UCL tear, he’d probably have had surgery.

wizard: Can you help me square your “gambler’s fallacy” answer to the question re: projected 81-81 team losing first 10 games with your earlier comment about not overreacting to April, when good teams can go 0-7; bad teams 7-0?

Dave Cameron: A good team can go 0-7 and still be a good team, so you shouldn’t believe they’re a bad team just because they have a bad first week. You should, however, adjust their season expected win total down by ~4 wins, because you expected them to go 4-3 in those seven games.

Dave Cameron: So now, if they play exactly as you expected pre-season for the next 155 games, they’ll finish at 88-74 instead of 92-70, or whatever the numbers are.

STiVo: Loved your piece The Unchanging Prices of Breakout Stars. Hypothesis: Because there is no free market for these guys (given the arb rules), the main bottleneck in getting the deals done is the willingness of the player. Therefore, these deals track general-price inflation, not the inflation in general player salaries (which track MLB income fairly well). General inflation has been low since the mid-2000s.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, that’s basically right. There’s no competing market pushing prices up for these guys.

Dave Cameron: And these one-year breakout guys don’t have the career totals that arbitrators look for, so they can’t count on getting big arb payouts, which increases the incentives for taking the guaranteed money.

Ozzie: Regarding not getting a top 20 guy for Quintana.
Maybe that’s true, but Fangraphs’ Katoh has Giolito at 19. I think the Eaton and Q contracts are approximate in surplus value, perhaps even greater for Q if you’re willing to ding Eaton’s defense in CF.

Dave Cameron: Giolito’s value was down around the game. Everyone knew he was available.

Dave Cameron: Alright, thanks for chatting everyone. Carson and I are recording a podcast in an hour, which should be up tomorrow.

Dave Cameron: Staff predictions for the season coming on Friday.

Dave Cameron: Then the big Opening Day Chat Extravaganza on Monday.

Dave Cameron: Should be a fun few days.