Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/30/16

12:01
Dave Cameron: It’s the final Wednesday before Opening Day.

12:01
Dave Cameron: Let’s chat about the 2016 season, what to expect, last minute roster decisions, or whatever other baseball ideas come to your mind.

12:01
Luis Sojo: Who are the front-of-the-rotation pitchers most likely to be traded to contenders this season?

12:02
Dave Cameron: If Tyson Ross isn’t traded at some point in the next few months, the Padres really screwed up.

12:02
Dave Cameron: Beyond him, maybe Sonny Gray if the A’s collapse again?

12:03
Pennsy: Percent chance Jayson Werth finishes this season a starting outfielder?

12:03
Dave Cameron: 60%. Revere and Taylor are both better in job-share roles, so unless the Nationals make a trade or Werth gets hurt, he should hang onto a mostly everyday job.

12:03
daneyko: Cody Anderson is probably the 4th SP with the Indians. Do you like him this season with better speed on his fastball ?

12:04
Dave Cameron: Velocity bumps are intriguing, but keep in mind that last year, Zach McAllister was the Indians SP suddenly throwing 97. That didn’t work out so well.

12:04
eppa: Who are your bold prediction MVPs/CYs for both leagues?

12:04
Dave Cameron: Our staff predictions go up on Friday. I almost went with Mookie Betts as AL MVP, but backed off at the last minute.

12:04
RK: so if J. Reyes gets convicted and deported, the Rockies are off the hook for his salary right?

12:05
Dave Cameron: Yes. But that’s probably an unlikely outcome. More likely is he gets suspended for half the season, then they say don’t bother trying to come back for the second half anyway, and he gets released over the winter. I don’t think Reyes ever plays for the Rockies again.

12:06
mtsw: How do you feel about the huge correlation between CF depth and CF effectiveness that StatCast has been showing? Should all CFs be playing as deep (or deeper) than Kiermeier? Or is this all a mirage caused by spotter bias in compiling advanced stats or something else?

12:06
Dave Cameron: I don’t think playing deep is the cause of being an effective CF; I think the ability to play deep is an effect of having very good range. If you stuck a slow-footed guy in CF and just positioned him close to the wall, it would be a disaster.

12:07
Joe: Could Joey Rickard be a +2 WAR player this year?

12:07
Dave Cameron: Could? Sure. Odubel Herera was a rule 5 pick last year with a similar-ish skillset and had plenty of success. But it’s not a great bet.

12:07
Who’s on first: Holliday, Moss, Adams. Any idea how 1B will shake out for the Cardinals? I’d like to see Moss get regular at bats. You think that will happen?

12:08
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if Holliday ended up as the full-time first baseman, with Moss/Pham platooning in left, and Adams traded.

12:08
Otis: How many PA’s can John Jaso get with only 3 LHP starters in his division? Is there no chance he gets 475?

12:08
Dave Cameron: Well he’s still going to get pinch-hit for on days he starts, and teams play out of division opponents too.

12:08
Socrates Brito: First im bench player, then im the next big sleeper, now im what?

12:09
Dave Cameron: Probably just a fourth outfielder. But that might be better than Yasmany Tomas!

12:09
Jason: Who’s closing for Tampa Bay?

12:09
Dave Cameron: I’m still a believer in Danny Farquhar.

12:09
Bob Pollard: Put aside what Bryce Harper is “worth” in terms of what teams will offer him, does it really make sense for any team to pay, say, $40 million per year for 10 years to one guy, no matter how good he is?

12:09
Dave Cameron: Yes, of course it does.

12:11
Dave Cameron: If you don’t have any problem with a team paying two guys $20 million per year (and no one does), and those guys are less than half as good as Harper (maybe $20M per year guys are), then you’re better off with spending $40M (or more) on one great player. Yes, it consolidates risk, but it also raises a team’s upside.

12:11
Sean: In his career, Ziegler has averaged 1.575 RA9-WAR per year yet only .5625 fWAR per year. He’s obviously an outlier to FIP-based WAR, from his low BABIP (.277 career), low strikeout numbers, and extremely high GB%. Is it safe to say that Ziegler is more of a 1.5 WAR player instead of the 0.5625 fWAR player he’s been, and as such, potentially add a win to his projected 0.5 fWAR next season?

12:12
Dave Cameron: Brad Ziegler has just over ~500 big league innings. A lot of pitchers outperform their peripherals for 500 innings. He’s likely to be a bit better than his FIP projections suggest, but you still have to heavily regress the RA9 numbers. I’d go with something like +0.75 WAR for 2016.

12:13
BK: What game are you most excited for on Sunday?

12:13
Dave Cameron: I’m liveblogging Mets-Royals on Sunday night, so that one.

12:13
Elam: Your favorite sleeper for 2016?

12:13
Dave Cameron: Feels like people are underrating the Tigers to me.

12:13
Uncle Charlie: Orioles take the AL East. Am I crazy?

12:14
Dave Cameron: It could happen. It’s the least likely outcome, but it’s certainly possible.

12:14
Scott: Is Jesus Montero going to be the next Blue Jay offensive reclamation project?

12:14
Dave Cameron: Doesn’t even sound like he’s going to make their roster. I’d expect them to try and sneak him back through waivers.

12:14
Q-Ball: Enjoyed your article on Rusney Castillo. Speaking of underwhelming Cuban corner OF, what is your take on Yasmany Tomas? Will he progress this year, or is he Dayan Viciedo 2.0? How important is he to the D-Backs chances?

12:15
Dave Cameron: I think he’s probably just not that good.

12:15
Kylo Ren: I get that the Cubs bullpen is deep and flexible, but there’s not a single guy there that I would call intimidating. Does that matter at all?

12:15
Dave Cameron: Nope.

12:15
The Hamburglar: Visited Asheville for the first time since I moved to Charlotte….as good as advertised, if not better. What’s the next NC town to visit for vacation, Dave?

12:16
Dave Cameron: We’re going back to Duck for our family vacation next month. It’s the best of the Outer Banks towns we’ve been to, though your mileage may vary if you don’t have a wife/baby/dog. No nightlife to speak of, but in terms of peaceful relaxing beach towns, it’s hard to beat.

12:16
JB: Seems like the flack Miguel Sano is getting should be aimed more at the team for asking a second-year guy (plus his size) to adjust to RF. At what point this season do Twins DH him and go Park/Mauer platoon at 1B?

12:17
Dave Cameron: I think they’d be more aggressive about moving him off RF if they were really contenders this year. They’re not, so they can afford to experiment. They’ll most likely pull the plug after one year and he’ll be a 1B/DH in 2017.

12:18
Zonk: Is there a player with a longer transaction page than Jamey Wright? He was only traded once, but signed 20 (!) free agent contracts and was released 8 times. Is that some kind of record?

12:18
Dave Cameron: Adam Rosales has to be in that conversation. He was DFA’d about six times in a month last year.

12:19
mtsw: Vegas has the Indians at 30/1-ish to win the World Series. A rare huge divergence between projection systems (most of which seem to have them around 10%) and Vegas. Is Vegas seeing something we’re not or are people just sleeping on them because of bad luck in 2015/small market/few established “stars?”

12:19
Dave Cameron: Part of the reason for the optimistic CLE playoff odds is that our forecasts are down on KC. If you think KC is a very good team (like most people do), then you have to adjust your CLE odds down since it makes a postseason berth less likely.

12:20
Zonk: I had an argument at work today…I said I think the Nationals will be very good, and the Royals won’t be. He said I’m crazy. Am I crazy, or is that recency bias?

12:21
Dave Cameron: I’d take the Nationals 2016 win total over the Royals, for sure.

12:21
Moop: Who has the best stuff of Kimbrel, McGee, Robertson?

12:21
Dave Cameron: Kimbrel

12:22
Kendrick: A poll of ESPN “experts” says that the Dodgers are the most likely MLB team to disappoint this season. Is there any reasonable possibility that widely consumed opinions will be based on logical thinking and the consideration of factual evidence within the next 100 years?

12:23
Dave Cameron: The Dodgers are doomed narrative is just feeding itself at this point. The people who participated in that survey are mostly in an echo chamber where they all talk to the same people and everyone just agrees with each other because it’s clearly the consensus opinion. It will be interesting to see how quickly the narrative dies once people watch the Dodgers play and realize, oh, hey, still lots of talent there.

12:24
Robbie: Has the spring changed your perception of the Diamondbacks at all? You of course have to take everything with a grain of salt, but players like Owings, Drury, and Brito are making some of us in AZ really optimistic with their play in the Cactus League.

12:24
Dave Cameron: Winning games in spring training means basically nothing.

12:24
Rhendricks: The NL Central went from arguably the best division in baseball last year to being projected as the division with the biggest blow-out lead. Do you think the Cubs really run away with the division or will we see another battle with the Cards and Pirates in the mix?

12:25
Dave Cameron: I think the Pirates are better than our forecasts think, but the Cubs are the best team in baseball, so it could end up not being that close a race simply because Chicago is so good.

12:26
Erik: Should a big-market team like the Phillies accelerate their rebuild by bringing up top prospects earlier and ignoring service time concerns? Or is that an inefficient use of resources even for a team with the money they have?

12:27
Dave Cameron: You can’t accelerate your rebuild by promoting kids sooner. Playing J.P. Crawford in April or May won’t do anything to make the Phillies contenders this year or next year.

12:27
Gareth : Trevor Bauer – spring control. Cody Anderson – spring velocity. Who is likelier to bring those improvements to the regular season and make the bigger impact

12:27
Dave Cameron: Not super high on either, but I’d probably take Anderson.

12:27
Jon: Most important things that happened this spring?

12:27
Dave Cameron: Way fewer elbows blowing out. Feels like we were at 20 Tommy John surgeries or something at this point last year.

12:28
Henry: Hammel goes down, who comes in? (Warren, Wood, Cahill, Richard)

12:28
Dave Cameron: Warren is pretty clearly the 6th starter, I think.

12:28
Outta my way, Gyorkass: How much does that Will Smith injury suck? Is there any chance he gets back up to speed, establishes some value, and is tradable by the deadline?

12:29
Dave Cameron: He doesn’t have to do much to re-establish most of his market value. It’s not an arm injury, so as long as he can get back on the field, teams will be interested.

12:29
Bill: The Cubs WAR on depth charts seems to have shrunk a lot – I remember they were 8 ahead of the Dodgers, and now it’s more like 1. Any reasons? Relatedly, doesn’t 4.3 WAR for Jason Heyward feel a little light?

12:29
Dave Cameron: The gap was bigger before we loaded ZIPS in. Steamer is higher on the Cubs than ZIPS.

12:30
Erik: Joc Pederson and Kris Bryant had very similar K% and ISO, but Bryant’s BABIP was 116 points higher. Do you expect their careers to converge (in a good or bad way) or does that BABIP difference represent a real skill that will sink Pederson while Bryant has a consistently excellent career?

12:30
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t bet on a 116 point difference over their career, but Bryant is probably always going to be one of these high-BABIP guys because he just hits the ball so hard. Peterson is an extreme fly ball guy, so he’ll probably be a low BABIP guy.

12:30
BleedCardsRed: I feel like the Cards are gonna suck this year. Lots of faith in older position players and rookies. No real in between ground there. What should I expect?

12:31
Dave Cameron: Way too many good players to expect them to suck. I don’t have them making the postseason, but I’ll be surprised if they win fewer than 80 games.

12:31
Outta my way, Gyorkass: Probably a crazy question: Do you think that at any point in the future, in the interest of pace of play, MLB will ever adopt a rule that states that if a batter hits X foul balls in a plate appearance, he will be called out on strikes?

12:32
Dave Cameron: No. It would change the strategy of the game too dramatically.

12:32
Dalman: What big prospect do you seeing getting the Kris Bryant award for most perfectly timed call up, immediately after the deadline to get another year before free agency?

12:32
Dave Cameron: A.J. Reed probably the most likely.

12:33
Eric: What is tenet of sabermetric orthodoxy that you disagree with the most?

12:33
Dave Cameron: That we can evaluate the quality of a manager based on the quotes he gives to the press.

12:33
Bruce: Do you think Rusney will be traded? Why do you think he can even be an average OF?

12:34
Dave Cameron: He’s shown signs of being a very good defensive CF, he makes better than average contact, and he’s got enough power to not be Billy Hamilton. It doesn’t take much improvement for him to get to average.

12:35
Walt: Braves = 70 wins too optimistic?

12:35
Dave Cameron: About right. If they trade Inciarte early, I’d take the under.

12:36
Bork: On the topic of Reyes, do you think he’ll play for ANY mlb team ever again?

12:37
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if his career is over. If he misses all of 2016 (which I think is likely), he’ll be a 30-something middle infielder with health problems, legal baggage, and rust from missing a whole year.

12:37
Zack: Which stat right now that sabermatricians use comfortably might become used less and less as time goes on?

12:39
Dave Cameron: Once we have a good number of years of Statcast data, and can create some models using exit velocity and launch angle, we’ll probably not need FIP in its current incarnation, and will be able to replace it with something that more accurately isolates a pitcher’s performance.

12:39
Kevin W: Huge A’s fan here. Any reason I should have hope for this season?

12:40
Dave Cameron: The AL West is pretty mediocre, especially if the Astros regress. If they have some injuries or Keuchel doesn’t repeat his great year, the division winner might only get to 88-90 wins. The A’s are capable of that in an everything-goes-right scenario.

12:40
CamdenWarehouse: What team projected to compete for a division title falls flat?

12:40
Dave Cameron: I see a lot of downside with the Indians. They’re a Kluber or Carrasco injury away from being not very good.

12:41
RK: but Reyes is under contract for 2017 too right…you think they’ll just eat 22 million + half of this year…seems unlikely.

12:41
Dave Cameron: It’s a sunk cost. If Story establishes himself as their SS, no real reason to have him around as an expensive distraction.

12:42
Michelle: How long do you give the Yasmany Tomas experiment before the Dbacks give up on him?

12:43
Dave Cameron: Depends on Brito. If Brito hits, maybe May. If Brito doesn’t hit, they’ll keep rolling Tomas out there.

12:43
Kole: Delino Deshields Jr is a solid player, or the second coming of Eric Young Jr?

12:43
Dave Cameron: Somewhere in between.

12:44
mtsw: Followup on the CF positioning thing: should the CFs who play shallow but are considered fleet-footed (Fowler, Adam Jones and Gose for example) play closer to the wall?

12:44
Dave Cameron: Maybe. It will be interesting to see what we learn with more data. Those guys are all players who rate much better by scouting than by the metrics, so there could be something to them simply not playing deep enough. But we just don’t know that yet.

12:45
turbo: Loved your piece on the nebulousness of the hit tool. If we’re overconfident in our ability to forecast hitting success, does that imply that we’re likely undervaluing guys with good power but who have been projected with weak hit tools, like Domingo Santana?

12:46
Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t say that. Contact rates stabilize very quickly, and guys who swing and miss a lot in the minors usually don’t fix that in the big leagues.

12:47
Andre: Carlos Correa for AL MVP a crazy thing to say? I think the Astros will be really good, and he could legitimately go 30/20 with some highlight reel defense.

12:47
Dave Cameron: Not crazy at all. Lots of people picked him in our staff picks.

12:47
Bork: Will any other games be liveblogged?

12:48
Dave Cameron: We’re live blogging all the games on Sunday and the 1/4/7 pm games on Monday.

12:49
Nelson: Any recommandations for thinsg to do in Charleston?

12:50
Dave Cameron: Eat at Butcher and the Bee for lunch. And then FIG or The Ordinary for dinner.

12:51
jon: odds of Addison Russell +4 war season?

12:51
Dave Cameron: I’m lower on his bat than many. I think he settles in a as a good-not-great player.

12:52
John: I don’t understand all the hype surrounding Sano. Sure he has power, but he also struck out 35% of the time last year and his offense was fueled by a .396 BABIP. So what am I missing?

12:52
Dave Cameron: He had a 151 wRC+ last year. Plenty of room for regression while still letting him be a beast of a hitter.

12:52
Joey: Your a terrible writter i wouldnt want any of your advice

12:53
Dave Cameron: What about on the proper use of conjunctions?

12:53
ctw: looking at outer banks vacations this summer (have a wife and dog) – would you recommend staying in one place, or moving up and down? are there outer banks towns that are more/less touristy than others?

12:54
Dave Cameron: If you’re taking the dog, Duck is where you want to go. Off-leash allowed on beach all day. All the other towns only let you bring your dogs in the mornings or evenings.

12:54
Dave Cameron: And Duck is close enough to Kitty Hawk and Corrola that you can make day trips.

12:55
Organizational Health: Dave, I ask because the King of Trade Value is withering away on a team that can’t seem to compete.

Is there a point at Which the Angels should consider trading Trout? I realize that it would be very hard to get the same value back, but it seems, as if the team is far from being very competitive. So trading Trout seems like the best way to infuse a lot of talent into the entire system.

Or am I just to pessimistic of the Angels? Kalhoun is alright, and Richards is good, but beyond that I don’t see much of anything?

12:56
Dave Cameron: When you have a +10 WAR base to start from with one guy, it’s just not that hard to believe you can contend. I think they’ll have to really fall apart — Richards elbow explodes, Calhoun arrested for running a meth lab — before they consider trading Trout and starting over.

12:56
Andrew: Any individual’s Spring Training performance affect your view of anything this past month?

12:57
Dave Cameron: Stuff like Alex Wood getting his old velo and arm slot back are worth noting. Stuff like Jean Segura hitting .500 are not.

12:58
Horn Please ThankYou: Re: traded front of the rotation starters. It’s only a matter of time before Teheran is out of ATL.

12:58
Dave Cameron: But he’s a back of the rotation starter.

12:59
e: Who are your starters on your all boring yet effective pitching rotation?

1:00
Dave Cameron: Jose Quintana, Wei-Yin Chen, John Lackey, Kyle Hendricks, Drew Smyly

1:01
Andre: How important is a healthy Yasmani Grandal to the Dodgers chances of success this season? I personally feel like he may be the most important position player (meaning not Kershaw) on that Dodgers roster.

1:01
Dave Cameron: Well, I like Austin Barnes, so I think they’d be okay without him. Most-important non-Kershaw guy on that team is probably Corey Seager.

1:01
CamdenWarehouse: Are we still allowed to make fun of a manager for the quotes he gives to the press?

1:02
Dave Cameron: You can do whatever you want, but it’s silly to think we can evaluate the effectiveness of a manager when most of what they do isn’t public.

1:02
Brandon: We can agree that Dusty Baker is bad though, right?

1:02
Dave Cameron: Nope! Players love the guy. That matters.

1:02
Dave Cameron: He might be bad. I don’t know.

1:03
Dave Cameron: I’m not taking a position, besides the position that we lack the tools necessary to take a position.

1:03
Michael Scarn: Which player do sabermetrically inclined baseball fans overrate the most?

1:03
Dave Cameron: Probably Trevor Bauer.

1:04
Nathan: Vegas has Thor as around 20-1 to win the Cy young. Would you take that bet?

1:05
Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’m a big fan.

1:06
Dooduh: On what alternate universe are the A’s capable of 88-90 wins?!?

1:07
Dave Cameron: They’re a .500ish team; doesn’t take a lot to get from there to 90 if you catch a few breaks.

1:08
Joe: Ever been to Perfectly Franks in Summerville, SC? They’ve got the best Hot Dogs of all time.

1:08
Dave Cameron: I’m not a big hot dog guy.

1:08
Lonnie: Where did you go to college/what did you major in?

1:09
Dave Cameron: I have a BS in Economics from UNC-Greensboro. Go Spartans.

1:09
First Time Poster: I’m not even a Twins fan (I actually have no good reason, but I’ve always disliked them), but you don’t feel they are a contender? They have plenty of upside on that roster with plenty of stability. I’m not saying they are going to light the world on fire, but could they not win 85-88 games and content for the WC?

1:10
Dave Cameron: Could happen, but I think they’re the worst team in the AL, or right there with the Orioles anyway. The pitching isn’t good, I’m not that high on Buxton, Sano is going to be a disaster in the OF, they don’t really have an SS or a C.

1:10
Bryceroni: Jordan Zimmermann for the boring yet effective??

1:11
Dave Cameron: Well he just got $110 million this winter, so I didn’t think he’d qualify.

1:12
Dooduh: Stop it. How is the A’s rotation any better than the O’s or Twins?

1:12
Dave Cameron: Sonny Gray exists.

1:13
Dave Cameron: Alright, off to do some writing. Real baseball in four days! I’ll see you guys on Sunday night for the Royals-Mets game.

1:13
Dave Cameron: Thanks for hanging out.





Dave is the Managing Editor of FanGraphs.

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Dooduh
7 years ago

Apparently charges are being dropped in the Jose Reyes case… the call that he’s not likely to play again doesn’t seem so strong anymore.