Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/8/17

Dave Cameron: Happy Wednesday, everyone.

Dave Cameron: The WBC is underway, so we have something pretty close to real baseball now.

Dave Cameron: And the season is now less than a month away, so plenty of 2017 expectations to talk about.

JT: If the Tigers bomb this year, what are the chances Verlander could be moved at the deadline as a Quintana alternative? How many teams need aces?

Dave Cameron: I guess I don’t really see too many scenarios where Verlander is good enough to have a lot of trade value but the Tigers are terrible enough to want to move him. I’d guess that if they’re lousy, so is he.

Sachin: Hi Dave! Big fan. Do you think starting pitchers will neutralize last year’s HR binge or is power here to stay again? It definitely puts more people in seats.

Dave Cameron: Depends entirely on what you think the cause of the power spike was. If it was the ball, then who knows, right? This year’s ball could be manufactured with enough difference to stop it from flying so far. If it wasn’t the ball, and it was players learning to go for power on all their swings, then maybe it sticks around. But the reality is we still don’t really know the cause.

Damian: Is the best version of the Dodgers the one with Alex Wood in the rotation, the bullpen, or AAA?

Dave Cameron: Probably the rotation, though he might be more amenable to pitching in relief than some of the other options.

Pie: No question, but just wanted to say your panel at Sloan was fantastic

Dave Cameron: Well thank you. It was enjoyable for me as well, and Mike, Harry, Brian, and Patrick were great folks to share the stage with.

Bork: Any hot takes on the WBC?

Matt: WBC is awesome!!!

Dave Cameron: Matt has one.

Dave Cameron: (I agree with Matt.)

SDinSEA: Morning Dave! For those of us who never saw Coleman, Raines or Henderson in their prime, I’m curious how Billy Hamilton’s raw speed compares. Were those guys just as impressive? Obviously Hamilton doesn’t get on base enough, but if he did, think we’d see another 100+ SBs?

Dave Cameron: I was pretty young when those guys were at their heyday, but I remember when Rickey Henderson would get on, the question was what pitch he would go on, not whether he would go. Everyone knew that he was running basically every time he had a chance. And he was still impossible to throw out. It was remarkable.

SDinSEA: Are you a Ryan Schimpf believer? Directionally, do you see him as a sustainable MLB regular?

Dave Cameron: I think he’s fine for a non-contender to play in 2017, but this is going to be a short career.

Dave Cameron: The extreme FB/high K combo doesn’t work once the power diminishes at all.

Kiermaier’s Piercing Green Eyes: How does Statcast WAR get integrated with conventional WAR? It’s easy to say we can credit hitters for “should have been” doubles robbed by handsome center fielders, but what about situational hitting like hitting long sac flies or trying to poke something the other way instead of barrel the ball?

Dave Cameron: This is the tricky part of modeling wins; there aren’t easy answers to this question. On Twitter yesterday, Tango asked a similar question; if Ortiz and Votto hit the exact same batted ball to the left side of the infield, but Votto’s is caught by the SS because he wasn’t shifted and Ortiz’s gets through because he was, what do you do with that? Credit Ortiz for a hit because he generally doesn’t have the ability to hit the ball to the left side, so he gets defended differently? Credit them the same because the contact was the same?

Kyle: Other than luck, what stands in the way of the Cubs repeating as World Series Champions? What weaknesses do they still have?

Dave Cameron: Rotation depth is really the obvious one. If Arrieta’s arm explodes or Lackey gets old suddenly, they just don’t have high-level impact arms to step in. They have enough extra hitters to make a trade for one, but that’s probably the recourse they’ll have to take if injuries hit.

Erik: What injury would have the biggest effect on a team’s playoff odds? Losing Mike Trout would drop the Angels win projection to right around the A’s, which looks like about a 20% drop. Losing Mookie Betts drops the Red Sox win projection to right around the Blue Jays, which looks like a 40% drop. (I know the odds don’t work quite like that, but they’re a decent ballpark estimate.) Can anyone beat Betts?

Dave Cameron: Maybe Syndergaard? If they lost him for the year, even with decent SP depth, they’re out ~4 wins, which drops them below Pit in the Wild Card race.

Phil: Thanks for doing this! What is a realistic expectation for domingo santana this year?

Dave Cameron: Maybe a 110-120 wRC+?

Dave Cameron: I’m a believer in the ability to crush the ball, but the contact issues are real.

Henry: Benintendi is an all-star this year. Too bold of a prediction, or is what he is doing in spring training for real?

Dave Cameron: Not insane, given the kind of weak crop of AL OFs right now. You have to assume Trout and Betts get two spots, but after that, it’s non-household names like Springer, Calhoun, Keirmaier, etc…

aspergillus fumigatus: RE Starting a reliever article:

What if a road team had, say, their 3rd best reliever go 1 or 2 innings to start— depending on when their spot in the order comes up— and then pinch hit for them? Then you put in the actual starter for 5-6 innings or whatever and then go to your closer. This ensures, as mentioned in your article, that you get the platoon advantage on the leadoff hitter to start the game and no cool-down effect BUT ALSO you get an offensive advantage with the pinch hitter.

Dave Cameron: Well, we don’t know that you wouldn’t get a cool down effect on the reliever.

Dave Cameron: We also don’t know for sure the cool down effect is the reason for the poor 1st inning numbers for road starters.

Dave Cameron: It’s an interesting topic, but there’s more we don’t know right now than stuff we do know.

Henry: On a scale from 1-10 how worried should we still be about David Price’s arm?

Dave Cameron: 7, but every pitcher alive is a 6, so relatively not that worried.

Cameron Dave: Do any of Mazara, Conforto, or Dahl have a higher ceiling than Springer?

Dave Cameron: No

Jake: do you have any tips for networking at SABR analytics conference this weekend in Phoenix?

Dave Cameron: Just be yourself. Try to just be friendly, don’t interrupt people, but be willing to go up and say hi. It’s better to have a real conversation with someone than to try to give them a sales pitch.

IsBrittonInYet: I don’t get what the Jays are doing in LF/1B. Neither Carerra or Upton can hit RHP, and depending on Pearce in left would leave no real Plan B for when their Plan A at 1B goes up in Smoak (see what I did there?). What are they thinking?

Dave Cameron: My guess is they’re willing to bet that one of Upton, Carrera, or Pompey outperform expectations.

Dave Cameron: They’ll figure out who it is in season.

Kaiser: Which non-playoff team could contend or shock ala Royals ? Don’t say cardinals because they almost made it and they wouldn’t shock anyone.

Dave Cameron: Maybe the D’Backs? I wouldn’t bet on it, but there are scenarios in which Robbie Ray turns into an ace, Walker and Miller become quality starters again, Greinke bounces back, and the rotation gets decent enough to help a solid offense get to 85-90 wins.

Zock jr: Dave, this fangraphs residency thing is really cool. I think it’s great that you guys leveraging your audience to give these writers an opportunity. Just a really classy move all around.

Dave Cameron: Thank you. We’re excited about the program, and have gotten a lot of great nominations already. I will say, for the record, that getting your friends to spam the email address with “I recommend (name here)” with no reasoning, no links to support the writing ability, and no real effort put into the nomination is probably not a great plan.

Dave Cameron: We’ve only had one person who pretty clearly just texted their friends and told them all to send one-line emails to the residency email, thankfully, But please don’t do that.

JKD: Completely speculatively – what is it that would lead a team to think that, oh, John Lannan would *work* as a submariner? Obviously Brad Brach shows that being a submariner means you don’t need velocity, but if that’s all there were to it, you’d see it a lot more.

Dave Cameron: What’s the harm in trying it?

Dave Cameron: It’s not like John Lannan costs you anything.

Jake: Who do you think will produce more WAR in their first 6 years, Jake Bauers TBR or Dylan Cozens PHI?

Dave Cameron: Bauers

SDinSEA: Does Hedges’ bat have enough in it for some All-Star campaigns?

Dave Cameron: If the glove is as good as advertised, he doesn’t have to hit much.

JKD: Michael A. Taylor is tearing it up in spring training so far – just like he did last year. He’s been… not good, in actual games, but also shows just enough to keep you interested. With Werth probably needing ~40 games off even with good health, what’s the play here? Gamble once more on Taylor’s upside and maybe you have a five-tool CF for 2018 and beyond? Or sign Angel Pagan and get a more assured floor but much lower ceiling?

Dave Cameron: I’d take Pagan.

Dave Cameron: Taylor seems like interesting depth but I wouldn’t want to count on him.

Jim: With all the talk now about launch angles and exit velocity, why is the third important component, spin, rarely mentioned?

Dave Cameron: Not as easy to measure.

Dave Cameron: And spray angle is also important.

BB/K: Is there a threshold of major league IP or PA, when player projections become significantly more reliable?

Dave Cameron: Thresholds in general are bad ideas. Everything gets more reliable one unit at a time.

Eric: Hi Dave! I’m enjoying the new ATC projections and the post introducing them was great. Can individual players’ ATC projection be added to their pages?

Dave Cameron: ATC doesn’t project a number of things that ZIPS and Steamer project, since it’s a fantasy-first system, so it’s going to be leaderboards-only for now.

Ron: Jeimer Candelario looks good so far (albeit in ST). Save maybe 10 teams (CHC, TEX, TOR, COL, BAL, SEA, TB, MIN, etc.) would he be an everyday starter at 3B?

Dave Cameron: Nope. Given the number of questions I get about him, and what Cubs fans apparently think he is, he’s probably the most overrated prospect in baseball right now. He’s a 23 year old 3B who projects for a 92 wRC+ in 2017. That makes him something like Eugenio Suarez.

DrunkPhil: Is Yasiel Alvarez’s upside higher than Julio Urias?

Dave Cameron: No. Urias’ upside is best pitcher in baseball.

Josh: Opinions are all over the map on Gary Sanchez. He never hit for the power he displayed in his MLB debut in the minors, but the exit velocity readings seem to indicate it wasn’t all that flukish. What are your expectations for him this season?

Dave Cameron: The power is legit. Doesn’t mean he’ll get the same results, but the power is there.

John: Will Alex Bregman hit enough and for enough power to be considered an elite offensive 3B?

Dave Cameron: A week ago, I would have said yes. But man, the batted ball numbers Tony showed in his piece are super scary. http://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/2016-hitter-contact-quality-report-a-few-nl-non-qualifiers/

Josh: Trade rumors seem to have completely diminished in regards to Ryan Braun. What are the chances of a mid season trade happening this year?

Dave Cameron: Pretty good, I’d think. If he’s hitting well, I think they’ll try to move him to create ABs for Brinson.

Balls: If the MLB did change the ball and didn’t tell anyone, wouldn’t that be strange? Not illegal but unethical? It just seems so strange that they would do that.

Dave Cameron: The ball changing didn’t have to be on purpose.

Dave Cameron: Manufacturing standards allow for enough variance that a batch could behave differently even if no one was trying to change the ball.

Dave Cameron: I don’t buy that MLB engaged in a conspiracy to increase HRs. But I do think that maybe it happened on accident.

Erik: Could the MLB not allow players to skip the WBC? The idea that it’s a big injury risk seems unfounded, since the players who skip just end up playing in spring training…where they could get injured. Is it within the league’s power to tell players they can’t opt out?

Dave Cameron: No, the players contracts do not require them to play in the WBC, and legally, MLB has no power to force them to play in it.

steve: Is the difference in projected war between conforto and bruce (-0.6 war) worth the Mets trading bruce and paying maybe $5million of his $13 and take a Low A reliever? give conforto the playing time at the cost of $5 million for the at bats

Dave Cameron: I don’t think they could move Bruce even at $8 million right now.

Scott: What do you think of the detail from Passan’s article, about a 0-100 WAR scale? So Trout would be a 100, Machado is about a 65 player, etc.?

Dave Cameron: Well, at that point, it’s not WAR, which is, by definition, measured in wins. That would just be “Player Rating System” or something.

Dan: When will the 2017 Player Profiles appear on players’ fangraphs pages?

Dave Cameron: I believe the plan is for them to go up this week.

Sam: Where do you think Brett Gardner ends up and for what return?

Dave Cameron: In New York, playing for a Yankees team that’s better than people think.

JR: Where does Lawrie end up?

Dave Cameron: Toronto, maybe? Travis’ injury problems create an opportunity at 2B, and they’re clearly okay with confident, outspoken guys.

Dave Cameron: Plus he probably wouldn’t mind going back to Canada.

Jake: People seem to think Braves can win 80+ and possibly contend, hard to see when you look at that roster and especially rotation, Bartolo can implode at any moment and Dicket wasn’t very good last year.

Dave Cameron: I think we have them at ~75 wins, so getting to 80 doesn’t take that much good luck. The idea that they’re legit contenders is a bit more of a fairy tale.

mike sixel: This idea of basically ignoring defenders and the wall and crediting hitters for how they hit the ball regardless of outcomes seems off to me. Where do you draw the line? What if an umpire misses an easy strike three? Does the pitcher get credit for a K? What do you do with the hitters’ outcome on later pitch(es)?

Dave Cameron: Right, these aren’t easy answers. It’s not obviously clear what you do with situations like that. It depends on what the goal is, for one, but even when you define that, there are still reasonable arguments for different options.

Luda: How do you see Schwarbers playing time play out? Catching 1-2 games/week and playing LF 2-3 games/week.

Dave Cameron: LF 5 days a week, catching almost never.

Jason: The projections are very low on Brandon Drury – am I missing something?

Dave Cameron: His minor league numbers aren’t very good once you park adjust for his environments.

Hunky Dory: Re: Gardner – if he stays, how do you foresee 2017 going in terms of at-bats for Clint Frazier?

Dave Cameron: Not sure he’s big league ready this year.

CamdenWarehouse: Doesn’t Lawrie seem like the perfect type of player to spend a year or two in Korea and then come back a la Thames?

Dave Cameron: Based on what I’ve heard about Brett Lawrie, I don’t know that he’s the best fit for a cultural world tour.

ctw: better player over the next 2/3 years, AJ Pollock or Starling Marte

Dave Cameron: Pollock, if he’s healthy.

biffyclyro: Do you personally find satisfaction when a season plays out as the analytics and analysis/predictions would’ve suggested (Cubs in 2016)? Or do you prefer a more chaotic season when something unforeseen happens?

Dave Cameron: If everything happened exactly as we said it would, it would be pretty boring.

Dave Cameron: I don’t think we’re really fighting for credibility much anymore these days, so we don’t really need reality to match the projections for people to take the idea of analytics seriously.

ctw: what’s your prediction for how the Pirates OF shakes out over the next year? Meadows underwhelms in AAA and doesn’t force his way in, Cutch underperforms, an injury, a trade?

Dave Cameron: Someone gets hurt, allowing Meadows to get the call-up, in which he performs well and forces them to keep him on the roster. Then roll with 4 OFs, with everyone getting some off days, and then Cutch is traded next winter.

HappyFunBall: So I think the answer is multiple metrics, or at least multiple versions of the same metric. Something like aWAR (actual), nWAR (park and defense neutral), etc… where you make adjustments (or not) for various variables depending on what description you really want

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think that’s probably the best option too, but people already think just the fact that B-R and FG have different versions of WAR is a problem. If there are like 10 WARs out there, with hugely different numbers, I can see it not going over well.

Michael: How many Mets starters finish in NL Top 5 Cy voting?

Dave Cameron: 1.

Guest: My understanding is that generally it’s not as smart to invest when the market is so high. However, if I am 22 and looking to start my IRA, is the current market not a concern because I’ll be invested for 45 years? Should I go ahead and open an IRA ?

Dave Cameron: Timing the market is a fool’s errand. Especially since you’re not cashing out any time soon, just put your money in an index fund and don’t look at it for a while.

Jason (not the 12:44 one): Most likely places Trout/Harper sign once their contracts expire?

Dave Cameron: General expectation is Harper to the Yankees. Trout is probably tougher to peg.

Dave Cameron: I know Phillies fans are dreaming of bringing their boy home.

Hank: Why do guys like Joc Pederson and George Springer have such amazing SB numbers in the minors, yet absolutely stink at stealing bases in the majors? I mean seriously, George Springer is terrible at stealing.

Dave Cameron: I would imagine holding runners on is one of the things that MLB pitchers are probably a lot better at than MILB pitchers.

Gene: What’s a fair extension for Syndergaard after this season assuming he has a similar if not better season compared to 2016? Would have 4 years of control remaining (all arb)

Dave Cameron: Since he’s going to be a Super Two, if he has another elite year, the chances for a cheap extension are zero. He’d probably be looking at something like $40-$50M in arb payouts by going year to year, and no reason to sell his FA years for less than $30-$35M apiece. So if you want a six year deal, you’re over $100M.

Jason (not the 12:44 one): Rizzo and Bryant had very similar years offensively – how come Rizzo didn’t receive more MVP support than he did? Case of people having to choose one Cub to back to ensure they didn’t cancel each other out?

Dave Cameron: There was about a one win difference between them in baserunning, so they didn’t really have similar years offensively, just at the plate. And then there’s Bryant’s defensive ability.

Tim Tebows OBP: How does the former Heisman winner do today? 0-2 with 2Ks? Does he induce a weak ground ball to the left side? Popup to first?

Dave Cameron: I don’t really understand caring about Tebow either way. The people who are really interested and the people who are really mad about people being really interested are both confusing to me.

PD: Is there a general size requirement to be a MLB hitter? Looking at some prospects who have stalled in AAA, you need to be a minimum of around 6 feet and 175 lbs.

Dave Cameron: Jose Altuve says hello.

Dave Cameron: In general, though, taller/bigger is better.

Rob: What’s the current status of Otani and when he would be able to come over to the U.S? Could you see the WSox making a big push for him as part of the rebuild?

Dave Cameron: Nothing has changed since the new CBA was negotiated. The new international rules mean that if he wants to come over next year, he’ll have to settle for a ~$9M signing bonus and then subject himself to the standard pre-arb/arb system until he has six years of service time.

Dave Cameron: So unless he’s just not motivated at all by money, he’ll wait two years.

Rob: In your best guess as to which teams will need to go hardest after Quintana in July?

Dave Cameron: The Cardinals are still the best fit, I think.

Dave Cameron: He’s their kind of pitcher.

Jason (not the 12:44 one): Follow up to Rizzo/Bryant – I thought Rizzo’s defense was also very highly rated. Does Bryant’s baserunning move the needle that much?

Dave Cameron: Good defense at first base is less valuable than good defense at third base or left field.

Dave Cameron: Alright, going to take my son to preschool and then take my in-laws to the airport. It’s a good day… (They don’t read FG. No one send this to them.)

Dave Cameron: We’ll do this again next week.