Dave Cameron FanGraphs Chat – 3/9/16

Dave Cameron: Bonus time today; we’re going to start a few minutes early.

Ira: How will a Jay Bruce addition for the whitesox shake up the projections in the AL Central?

Dave Cameron: Well they didn’t trade for Jay Bruce, so it won’t. But now that they’ve signed Austin Jackson, Bruce serves no purpose for them.

Dave Cameron: The Jackson and Rollins signings could end up being pretty important, though. Those two probably add something like three wins to the White Sox ledger over what the team had.

Dave Cameron: They still need one more starting pitcher, I think, but the White Sox have a chance to be good this year.

Desmond : Is it fair to say the Giants and dodgers lineup and pitching is more or less dead even but when factoring in injuries dodgers are much more able to sustain why giants risk being crippled by a injury to the wrong guy ?

Dave Cameron: No, I think the Dodgers pitching is far superior to the Giants pitching. They have Kershaw.

Nick: Hey Dave! Last week I submitted a question looking for paper topics about a paper on discrimination in baseball. I really appreciated the responses! I’m going to look at height of position players vs compensation/war. I’ll post my findings in a few weeks or so. Thank you again!

Dave Cameron: Glad to hear it was helpful. Look forward to reading it.

Mike: As someone who has a desire to work in baseball, particularly in baseball ops, how would you recommend getting my name out there? I know it is a very competitive line of work to get into as is, but it’s something that has always fascinated me and worth a shot trying to get involved.

Dave Cameron: Build something. Learn how to code and build a tool that lives in the public space that you can use to show your skills.

Jerry: How many home runs will Kris Bryant hit in his career, assuming full health and an 18 year career?

Dave Cameron: 436.

Ben: Cardinals aren’t desperate enough to give the Braves what they would undoubtedly be asking for for Aybar….right?

Dave Cameron: Depends on what the Braves are asking. If they are impressed enough with Albies in camp to think he could be up in May, after the service time window passes, they might move Aybar.

Joe: It doesn’t matter how well the young Braves play this spring, there’s absolutely no chance any of them start opening day right? Pointless to lose a whole year of control for a couple months of what is an already lost season.

Dave Cameron: Right.

The Average Sports Fan: Are the Reds the dumpster fire I think they are, or am I missing something? I see no way they finish higher than 4th the rest of this decade.

Dave Cameron: No one knows enough to have any kind of certainty that far out. They could draft Mike Trout 2.0 in a few months. Who knows?

lunch: what would a theoretical cardinals trade for aybar look like? do you think they’re going to go that way, or is it just one of those things that looks so obvious it won’t actually happen?

Dave Cameron: My guess is they’ll do something smaller instead. Ruben Tejada sounds like he might not even make the Mets, so I could see them taking a shot on him and seeing how it works.

Jimbo: How would you describe what BaseRuns is, what BaseRuns attempts to accomplish, and what it tells us?

Dave Cameron: BaseRuns is the best publicly available run estimator, a tool that takes a team’s raw numbers (1B, 2B, HR, etc…) and models them in a way that produces an expected number of runs scored and allowed. Think of BaseRuns as a sorting mechanism; once you collect big piles of information (the number/type of baserunners), you need to make some assumptions about how they’ll be distributed, and BaseRuns gives a pretty accurate assessment of how teams are likely to distribute their baserunners, both for and against.

Dave Cameron: Generally, the difference between a team’s RS/RA (and W/L, based on putting those run estimates into pythagenpat) tells us how efficient a team was at distributing their events.

Q-Ball: Dave, last month you wrote about the Cubs off season grade “I’d still have preferred if they turned one of their extra pieces into a center fielder…… but with that exception, the Cubs off season was basically perfect.” Then they signed Dexter Fowler. Was the Cubs offseason basically perfect? Will you officially up-grade them to the coveted Cameron A+?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I can’t really see that they could have had a better off-season. A+ winter for an A+ team.

birdwatcher: Dave: what is your opinion of how Dan Duquette has handled this past offseason? IMO you should be absolutely sure that you have Fowler signed first before tendering an offer to Gallardo. I don’t mind losing the #14 pick for Fowler, but Gallardo? No way.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I didn’t like the Orioles offseason at all. Davis might have been forced on them by Angelos, but the rest of it was bad too. I think there’s a decent chance the Orioles implode this year, winning 65-75 games, and have to start thinking about whether to trade Machado next winter. There’s a very high risk of disaster in Baltimore.

Zonk: Dave, you have tempered some pretty high expectations here on what Kyle Schwarber is and could be. “A left-handed Mike Napoli”, IIRC. Still, if the 2014 draft were re-done today, would he be your first pick (disregarding team need)? If not, who would you take in front of him?

Dave Cameron: With today’s knowledge, I’d probably take Trea Turner or Michael Conforto #1 overall. Schwarber and Rodon would be 3-4 in some order.

Joe: Dave Schoenfield (in an admittedly unrealistic article) noted that the Orioles could break the home run record, and with the exact same run prevention as 2015 would win 97 games. That’s almost certainly not going to happen, but could they be legit contenders if they mash at historic levels?

Dave Cameron: Well, sure, if they hit 300 homers, then they’ll be good. But you could play that game with every team in baseball.

Q-Ball: Speaking of off-season grades, would you now rank the White Sox higher than B+? Given their financial constraints, I think they did a really good job of filling some gaping holes at 3B, 2B, OF Defense. They added like 5-8 wins without spending money or gutting the farm. What is your take?

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I think they signed Rollins right after I wrote that post, and then Jackson helps too. I’d probably give them an A- or A now.

Chris: Listening to your podcast this week I suddenly wondered why baseball doesn’t play games in the rain? It isn’t tennis where the ball becomes unusable in the rain. Is this just the way its always been or are there significant changes to the game that make it unplayable in rain?

Dave Cameron: Running in cleats in wet dirt is super dangerous.

Dave Cameron: Also, do you want a pitcher throwing a ball 98 mph when he doesn’t have a good grip?

AZ: If you had to compare Aaron Blair’s expected results to a current MLB starting pitcher, who would you choose?

Dave Cameron: Jimmy Nelson, maybe?

Scott: For position players, what single tool is most helpful for making the majors? Speed? Power? Defense?

Dave Cameron: Power. If you can hit a baseball a long way, you can be crap at everything else and still be okay.

Zonk: I don’t understand the Indians inaction. Great rotation, but are they really going to start the year with an OF of Cowgill, Davis, and Chisenhall? Couldn’t they have at least brought in someone like Victorino on a minor league deal (he is in Cubs camp)? Are the Indians that broke?

Dave Cameron: I’m in the same boat. If they think what they have is good enough, that just feels oddly overconfident. If they agree that their OF is weak, then inaction can only be read as not seeing a high value on adding marginal wins, so either they think they’re big favorites (I don’t see that) or they don’t think they’re in a position to trade future for present (I don’t see that either). There were just too many useful OFs changing teams this winter for them to sit on the sideline like this.

Guest: I asked August this yesterday and he put up a poll which basically was split 50-50, so I want to get your take: If the Astros were offered the opportunity to trade Correa to the Rangers for nothing in exchange for 1 guaranteed world series title, would you do it?

Dave Cameron: No.

Raindog: The difference in positional adjustment between 1B and DH is only 5 runs. Last year as a 1B, Pedro Alvarez had a UZR of -15 and a UZR/150 of -26. So, do I interpret that correctly that he’s worth 1-2 WAR more as a DH than as a 1B?

Dave Cameron: If you think that his 2015 defense was his true talent level, yes, but he wouldn’t have been that bad again.

Drew: Do you think David Ortiz is better than Jack Morris? Less fWAR, lower championship win probability added according to Baseball Gauge.

Dave Cameron: Ortiz’s postseason numbers matter, and they’re why he’ll get elected, and unlike Morris, his are actually great, instead of just having one memorable game.

Paul: Olney seems convinced tanking will be addressed in the next CBA. Do you think anything will actually come of it? As you wrote, even if it exists it’s contributing to an unprecedented amount of parity in the sport, which seems good for everybody. Who benefits from making a change?

Dave Cameron: I wouldn’t be surprised if the league codified some kind of “teams must spend x% of declared revenue on MLB payroll” rule that basically already exists, but isn’t on the books yet. It will be touted as a payroll floor, but it won’t actually change anything; we’ve already seen the league tell the Marlins to spend more money after the MLBPA complained that their payroll was too low.

Raindog: I’m a little surprised that nobody picked up Justin Morneau to be a DH/1B/bench bat. He’s certainly hit well enough the last couple years. Is he still hurt?

Dave Cameron: He’s a 35 year old 1B who put up a 107 wRC+ last year.

lefty: So is worse case scenario for FG this year a Diamondbacks Royals World Series?

Dave Cameron: We have both teams projected for about .500, about the same as we had the Mets projected a year ago. It wouldn’t be that weird if one of them got there, nor are we saying that neither of them can get there. They’re just not as good as the public perception, I think.

STiVo: How often are the Depth Charts updated? Thanks!

Dave Cameron: We try to keep them as current as possible.

TF Fredrik: Where did all the offense go at the catcher position? I know framing is all the rage, but it’s sad to look at some of these major league hitting lines.

Dave Cameron: Catchers are hitting right in line with where they’ve always hit, historically. http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2015&month=35&season1=2002&ind=0&team=0,ss&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=1,a

Dave Cameron: Or even better if you look at the years before 2015.

Korrea: Why don’t we hear more about front office salaries in regard to all these player compensation arguments? Revenues don’t need to be split directly between ownership and players, and front office employees add a ridiculous amount of value to their respective organizations relative to their pay grades.

Dave Cameron: There’s no baseball operations union with a seat at the table in the CBA negotiations.

Bruce: Dave, do you have any guilty pleasures at all? Sitcoms, Ice cream, games, anything???

Dave Cameron: Dogs. I probably spend more time watching dog/human reunion videos than a 35 year old male should admit.

Raindog: How can David Freese find a home? He’s not exactly exciting, but as a slightly above average hitter who plays an average 3B, he’s surely at least useful. Maybe Houston?

Dave Cameron: He’s probably waiting for an injury at this point.

TKDC: If a pitcher does not project as a top-end starter, is it even worth it to hold them back for service time reasons if they’ll help your club right now?

Dave Cameron: Depends on the quality of the team. The Phillies shouldn’t be rushing anyone onto their big league roster, but if I’m a bubble contender and I have an elite pitching prospect who is big league ready and clearly better than my veteran alternative, I don’t care about service time that much. Hitters, yes, pitchers, no.

Ruby: Which would be more of a surprise (to you personally, not necessarily going by Playoff Odds): Cubs missing the playoffs, or Brewers making the playoffs?

Dave Cameron: Brewers, easily. The Cubs are very good, but a few injuries could easily wipe out a lot of their value. It’s hard to see how the Brewers just find 20 wins.

Sean: FG projected standings and playoff odds have the Marlins ahead of the Diamondbacks. Do you personally believe that to be likely?

Dave Cameron: They look pretty similar to me. Both teams are heavily reliant on a few core stars and have questionable role players with lots of risk.

Chris: What effect will deGrom and Cole not signing their contracts have on the next CBS? How might contract structures cgange?

Dave Cameron: Zero. it was a symbolic move.

Nick: Who’s the next breakout dominant K/9 reliever that nobody knows about? (Someone that already has debuted)

Dave Cameron: Well I’d imagine there aren’t a lot of people who know who Tony Zych is yet, but if his September performance is even remotely in the ballpark of his true talent level, he could be make some noise this year.

j6takish: I’d say hit tool. Being able to hit 300 establishes a pretty high floor

Dave Cameron: I’m of the opinion that there is no “hit tool”; it’s a term used for a combination of skills. Contact is a skill, but it’s useless if you can’t hit the ball hard enough to get it out of the infield. The hit tool is basically contact plus strength. You obviously need both, but I think strength is the more important variable.

Chris: Can the Cubs be stopped if Arrietta regresses and the rotation overall isn’t as good as expected? Or are they still bulletproof?

Dave Cameron: No one is bulletproof. The Cubs are very good, but there are lots of ways for their 2016 season to go sideways.

TKDC: In consideration for the HOF, would you give a primary DH who you think could have theoretically been a decent fielder (Edgar) more credit than one that probably couldn’t (Ortiz)?

Dave Cameron: No, I think you judge them based on what they did, not on what they might have done.

Paul H.: Thanks for the explanation of base runs above. Can you help me understand what you mean when you talk of “sequencing” with regards to base runs? Is this the idea that you can flip a coin 1000 times and somewhere along the way end up with a run of 10 heads in a row and that is not an identifiable “skill” of the flipper. So that the Royals have simply benefited from luck in beating their base runs projection?

Dave Cameron: Sequencing is the term we use to describe the ordering of events. 1B-1B-HR is three runs; HR-1B-1B is only one if the plays following the 1Bs aren’t positive. So you can get wildly different results from the same types of plays, and there’s not a lot of evidence that teams can control how well they order their events. We mostly evaluate the quantity of results, not their order.

Chris: Who would you prefer to build a team around: Mookie Betts or Kris Bryant? How much of your answer is based on defense?

Dave Cameron: I’d take Bryant, but love both.

David: How would the Indian’s grade change since they didn’t sign Jackson? I have a hard time seeing them earn anything more than a D.

Dave Cameron: Yeah, I’d put them in the same group as the Astros as teams that missed an opportunity to add valuable wins.

Thomas: how to best get an question answered in here? if you don’t answer is it safe to assume you saw and passed or do we send multiple times?

Dave Cameron: Just ask once; if I see the same question over and over, I refuse to answer out of the don’t-reward-spam principle.

ken m: when you start running low on oil, is there another robot that helps you out, or is there a “human” that you require to assist you?

Dave Cameron: It’s 2016; I’m solar powered now.

Dooduh: Understood re: positional talent of DBs and Marlins, but not rotations. Should be big advantage DBs there.

Dave Cameron: Our depth charts have ARZ at +12.6 WAR from their SPs, MIA at +11.8.

Gareth : More WAR in 2016 – Lindor, Correa, Seager or Boegarts?

Dave Cameron: Correa

Sir Nerdlington: When do you think the next CBA is finalized? Odds of a work stoppage?

Dave Cameron: Everyone thinks it’s going to get done, which is encouraging. My guess is they announce an agreement in October.

Ben: You recently called the Dodgers the top Pitching staff in baseball in here. Has that opinion changed much?

Dave Cameron: The Anderson injury dents them a bit, and if Ryu isn’t healthy by May, I’d put them behind the Mets.

Dave Cameron: But they’re still really good.

Ryan: Would the Cubs be foolish to extend Arrieta right now? His stock can hardly climb any higher than it currently sits after his least season, and they already have him under control for this year and next. Why buy out future years when he’ll be 32+ at this point?

Dave Cameron: Depends on price, but yeah, I wouldn’t be in a rush to lock up a guy who threw ~275 innings last year and is under control for two more years. Let him prove he’s not going to have any negative effects from last year’s workload; it’s not like his price is going to go up much.

The Average Sports Fan: How much rope do you think the Dodgers front has? They have spent a ton of money for not that much return on the field. Missing playoffs or first round loss and ownership get antsy?

Dave Cameron: They’ve won the division three years in a row, they have the best farm system in baseball, and they’re likely to win 90+ again this year. At some point, the narrative that the Dodgers aren’t insanely successful is going to die.

Tom: Rangers, Orioles, Royals, Diamondbacks: they all have sub-.500 projections, and yet they also have playoff hopes. Which is most likely to beat their projections and make the post-season?

Dave Cameron: Royals.

Nick: Do the Indians get any credit for resisting trading any of their great pitchers on even greater contracts for what they viewed as underwhelming returns? Or do you think they should have bit the bullet and traded one of them to try to strengthen their clown show of an outfield?

Dave Cameron: I don’t think those were their only two options.

Dooduh: Yeah Shelby Miller entering his prime and the projection has him slipping from 3.4 to 1.9 fWar doesn’t look right TBH.

Dave Cameron: Pitchers don’t age like hitters, and he’s not posting a 6% HR/FB rate again.

Matt: KC royals over/under 85 wins?

Dave Cameron: I’d peg them as a 80ish win team about now, so under.

Ernie Camacho: Dave, your ongoing exploration of BaseRuns overachievers is fantastic. Based on some of the comments to those pieces and questions in the chats, I’d suggest a new glossary page all about BaseRuns with an intro post (that includes links to Tango’s seminal posts from years ago about how runs are created).

Dave Cameron: Yeah, we definitely need to do a better job of explaining the concept.

Jerry: Dave, come on man. Dodgers went from best rotation to second, and it’s because Brett Anderson went down? I get that Kershaw is good, but he’s not as good as 2 pitchers because he can only win you 1 game. His wins don’t count for 2. Help me understand this because unless Kershaw faces other teams 1 and 2 every week, doesn’t help.

Dave Cameron: Think of it this way; say you win 70% of Kershaw’s starts, because he’s that great, so you go 24-10 in his 34 starts. But a normal “good” starter, you only win 60% of their starts, so you go 20-14 in their starts. A team with two good starters will go 40-28 in the games where those two guys pitch, but if you have Kershaw, you only need to have a guy (or guys) go 16-18 in their 34 starts to come to the same place as having two good starters.

Colin: What’s the difference between Baseruns and pythagorean record?

Dave Cameron: Pythag starts with RS/RA, and creates an expected record based on that. BaseRuns starts with the individual plays (1B/2B/3B/HR, etc…) and estimates RS/RA, then we use pythagenpat to estimate W-L from those estimated RS/RA. So BaseRuns is entirely context-neutral, while pythag is context-specific in terms of turning baserunners into runs, but context-neutral in turning runs into wins.

Dave Cameron: Alright, have to go write. Thanks for hanging out this week everyone.